Who’s Winning at theOscars ® ? HammondPredictionsBy PeteHammond© A.M.P.A.S.Predicting Oscars ® is a fools folly and at this writing in late January, the ballotshadn’t even been mailed. But you do what you gotta do.Take this forecast with a grain a salt, built as it is on buzz,precursors, Oscar ® history, nominee pedigrees, educatedguesses, instinctive hunches and conversations with voters.Still it is a race of momentum and where it will be by the timeballots are due back in on Feb. 21 is anybody’s guess. Therecould be changes in the online version of this document closerto Feb. 26 but for now, this looks like the direction the Oscar ®winds are blowing. Enter your office pool with confidence butdon’t blame me if you lose to some grandmother who hasn’tbeen to a movie since Gone With the Wind.| Predictions |06 The Awards Edition <strong>2011</strong>-<strong>2012</strong> Issue 07BEST PICTUREThe clear front runner is The Artist with strong precursorwins at the very predictive DGA and PGA awards, not tomention a slew of others that tip this race in the directionof the first black and white silent film to seriously competefor best picture since the very first winner, Wings, in 1927-28. Hugo, the nominations leader with 11, will probablyhave to settle for a handful of technical wins even thoughit is widely admired. The Descendants and Midnightin Paris are likely to win consolation prizes for theirscripts with only the real dark horse, The Help, having ashot at an upset thanks to its support from the all-powerfulactors’ branch. But without nominations for writing,directing or editing, it would be a shocker as no best picsince Grand Hotel in 1930 has pulled that off. It’s not likelyto happen, but this has been a weird year.The winner: The ArtistThe competition: The Descendants, Extremely Loud & IncrediblyClose, The Help, Hugo, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball,The Tree of Life, and War Horse.BEST ACTORThis has turned into a real barnburner of a contest andis difficult to read. Brad Pitt started strong, winning theNY Film Critics and National Society of Film Critics,but good buddy George Clooney eclipsed him atthe Critics’ Choice Movie Awards, National Board ofReview and Golden Globes ® . It looked like a two manrace until Jean Dujardin broke his vow of silenceand beat them both at the most important predictor ofall, the SAG ® awards adding to his Golden Globe ® forcomedy or musical actor. Now it’s a brawl as all threeare in best picture nominees which is another advantagepast winners have had. There’s no clear-cut choice but ahunch tells me Dujardin is peaking at just the right timewith France’s ‘sexiest man alive’ trumping his Americancounterparts. It pays to work with a cute dog.The winner: Jean Dujardin, The Artist.The competition: Demián Bichir, A Better Life; GeorgeClooney, The Descendants; Gary Oldman, TinkerTailor Soldier Spy, and Brad Pitt, Moneyball.the artistBEST ACTRESSOne of the tightest races this year has turned into a seesawbattle between 17-time nominee and two-time winnerMeryl Streep vs. her Doubt co-star Viola Davis. Streepwon at the New York Critics and the Globes ® while Davisracked up the Critics’ Choice and the SAG ® awards. Onewould guess Streep is the front runner at the BAFTAsContinued on p10
for your★ ★ ★ ★CONSIDERATIONSTEPHENAs of tomorrow morning thereísgoing to be some changes in yourcampaign. Paul is out. I will beyour senior campaign manager.Iíll draft a statement, ìweíreat a point in the campaign wheresome changes have to be madeetc.î You can put your own wordsin there, you do it better thanmost.®ACADEMY AWARD NOMINEEBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY2 BAFTA NOMINATIONSBEST SUPPORTING ACTORPHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMANBEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAYGOV. MORRISAnd why would I do that?Beat.STEPHENBecause you want to win.Because you broke the only rulein politics. You want to bePresident, you can start a war,you can lie, you can cheat, youcan bankrupt the country, butyou canít fuck the interns...theyíll get you for that.
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