A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines - About the Philippines

More documents

Recommendations

Info

some timeless patterns but also some random patterns that, due to sampling variation,show up only in the 2004 APIS. Or the scorecard may be overfit in the sense that itbecomes biased as the relationships between indicators and poverty change or when it isapplied to non-nationally representative samples.Overfitting can be mitigated by simplifying the scorecard and by not relying onlyon data but rather also considering experience, judgment, and theory. Of course, thescorecard here does this. Bootstrapping can also mitigate overfitting by reducing (butnot eliminating) dependence on a single sampling instance. Combining scorecards canalso help, at the cost of greater complexity.Most errors in individual households’ likelihoods, however, cancel out in theestimates of groups’ poverty rates (see later sections). Furthermore, much of thedifferences may come from non-scorecard sources such as changes in the relationshipbetween indicators and poverty, sampling variation, changes in poverty lines,inconsistencies in data quality across time, and inconsistencies/imperfections in cost-oflivingadjustments across time and space. These factors can be addressed only byimproving data quantity and quality (which is beyond the scope of the scorecard) or byreducing overfitting (which likely has limited returns, given the scorecard’s parsimony).27
7. Estimates of a group’s poverty rate at a point in timeA group’s estimated poverty rate at a point in time is the average of theestimated poverty likelihoods of the individual households in the group.To illustrate, suppose a program samples three households on Jan. 1, 2009 andthat they have scores of 20, 30, and 40, corresponding to poverty likelihoods of 80.9,59.6, and 36.8 percent (national line, Figure 4). The group’s estimated poverty rate isthe households’ average poverty likelihood of (80.9 + 59.6 + 36.8) ÷ 3 = 59.1 percent. 207.1 Accuracy of estimated poverty rates at a point in timeFor the Philippines’ scorecard applied to the validation sample with n = 16,384,the absolute differences between the estimated poverty rate at a point in time and thetrue rate are 0.7 percentage points or less (Figure 8, which summarizes Figure 9 acrosspoverty lines). The average absolute difference across the eight poverty lines is 0.4percentage points. At least part of these differences is due to sampling variation in thevalidation sample and in the random division of the 2004 APIS into three sub-samples.In terms of precision, the 90-percent confidence interval for a group’s estimatedpoverty rate at a point in time and with n = 16,384 is 0.5 percentage points or less(Figure 8). This means that in 900 of 1,000 bootstraps of this size, the difference20The group’s poverty rate is not the poverty likelihood associated with the averagescore. Here, the average score is (20 + 30 + 40) ÷ 3 = 30, and the poverty likelihoodassociated with the average score is 59.6 percent. This is not the 59.1 percent found asthe average of the three poverty likelihoods associated with each of the three scores.28
Page 1 and 2: A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the
Page 3 and 4: comparable across organizations nor
Page 7 and 8: points or less for estimates of cha
Page 9 and 10: counted as if it had only one perso
Page 11 and 12: derived from the 2000 FIES by the N
Page 13 and 14: Given this, the USD1.25/day 2005 PP
Page 15 and 16: Reyes builds a scorecard using the
Page 17 and 18: that quickly show how estimated pov
Page 19 and 20: 3.3 Gwatkin et al.Gwatkin et al. (2
Page 21 and 22: includes income, the PCA index cann
Page 23 and 24: One of these one-indicator scorecar
Page 25 and 26: The scorecard in Figure 1 is ready
Page 27 and 28: If not determined by other factors,
Page 29 and 30: 6.1 Calibrating scores with poverty
Page 31 and 32: 6.2 Accuracy of estimates of househ
Page 33: The 90-percent confidence interval
Page 37 and 38: To derive a sample-size formula (or
Page 39 and 40: 21.64n = 0. 55 ⋅⎛ ⎞⎜ ⎟
Page 41 and 42: 8. Estimates of changes in group po
Page 43 and 44: 2002 in the Philippines is the diff
Page 45 and 46: from 0.63 to 0.77 (Figure 10), sugg
Page 47 and 48: To illustrate the use of (8), suppo
Page 49 and 50: the four possible targeting outcome
Page 51 and 52: As an alternative to assigning bene
Page 53 and 54: at a point in time is always less t
Page 55 and 56: ReferencesAdams, N.M.; and D.J. Han
Page 57 and 58: Hentschel, Jesko; Lanjouw, Jean Ols
Page 59 and 60: Onwujekwe, Obinna; Hanson, Kara; an
Page 61 and 62: Stillwell, William G.; Barron, F. H
Page 63 and 64: Figure 1: A simple poverty scorecar
Page 65 and 66: Figure 3: Poverty indicators by unc
Page 67 and 68: Figure 3 (cont.): Poverty indicator
Page 69 and 70: National Poverty Line Tables(and Ta
Page 71 and 72: Figure 5 (National poverty line): D
Page 73 and 74: Figure 7 (National poverty line): B
Page 75 and 76: Figure 9 (National poverty line): D
Page 77 and 78: Figure 11 (All poverty lines): Poss
Page 79 and 80: Figure 13 (National poverty line):
Page 81 and 82: Figure 4 (National food poverty lin
Page 83 and 84: Figure 7 (National food poverty lin
Page 85 and 86:
Figure 12 (National food poverty li
Page 87 and 88:
USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
Page 89 and 90:
Figure 5 (USAID “Extreme” pover
Page 91 and 92:
Figure 9 (USAID “Extreme” pover
Page 93 and 94:
Figure 13 (USAID “Extreme” pove
Page 95 and 96:
Figure 4 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP line
Page 97 and 98:
Page 99 and 100:
Figure 12 (USD1.25/day 2005 PPP lin
Page 101 and 102:
USD2.50/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
Page 103 and 104:
Page 105 and 106:
Page 107 and 108:
Page 109 and 110:
Page 111 and 112:
Page 113 and 114:
Page 115 and 116:
USD5.00/Day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
Page 117 and 118:
Page 119 and 120:
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
Page 125 and 126:
Page 127 and 128:
Page 129 and 130:
National Poverty Line Tablesfor 200
Page 131 and 132:
Figure 9 (National line): Differenc
Page 133 and 134:
Figure 13 (National line): For a gi
Page 135 and 136:
Figure 7 (Food line): Bootstrapped
Page 137 and 138:
Figure 12 (Food line): Households b
Page 139 and 140:
USAID “Extreme” Poverty Line Ta
Page 141 and 142:
Figure 9 (USAID “extreme” line)
Page 143 and 144:
Figure 13 (USAID “extreme” line
Page 145 and 146:
Page 147 and 148:
Page 149 and 150:
USD2.50/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Page 155 and 156:
Page 157 and 158:
Page 159 and 160:
USD5.00/day 2005 PPP Poverty Line T
Page 161 and 162:
Page 163 and 164:
Page 165 and 166:
Page 167 and 168:
Page 169 and 170:
Poverty Lines and Poverty Rates,by
Page 171 and 172:
Figure A2: All-urban Philippines an
Page 173 and 174:
Figure A4: Agusan del Norte, povert
Page 175 and 176:
Figure A6: Aklan, poverty lines and
Page 177 and 178:
Figure A8: Antique, poverty lines a
Page 179 and 180:
Figure A10: Bataan, poverty lines a
Page 181 and 182:
Figure A12: Batangas, poverty lines
Page 183 and 184:
Figure A14: Bohol, poverty lines an
Page 185 and 186:
Figure A16: Bulacan, poverty lines
Page 187 and 188:
Figure A18: Camarines Norte, povert
Page 189 and 190:
Figure A20: Camiguin, poverty lines
Page 191 and 192:
Figure A22: Catanduanes, poverty li
Page 193 and 194:
Figure A24: Cebu, poverty lines and
Page 195 and 196:
Figure A26: Davao del Sur, poverty
Page 197 and 198:
Figure A28: Eastern Samar, poverty
Page 199 and 200:
Figure A30: Ilocos Norte, poverty l
Page 201 and 202:
Figure A32: Iloilo, poverty lines a
Page 203 and 204:
Figure A34: Kalinga, poverty lines
Page 205 and 206:
Figure A36: Laguna, poverty lines a
Page 207 and 208:
Figure A38: Lanao del Sur, poverty
Page 209 and 210:
Figure A40: Maguindanao, poverty li
Page 211 and 212:
Figure A42: Marinduque, poverty lin
Page 213 and 214:
Figure A44: Misamis Occidental, pov
Page 215 and 216:
Figure A46: Mountain Province, pove
Page 217 and 218:
Figure A48: Negros Oriental, povert
Page 219 and 220:
Figure A50: Northern Samar, poverty
Page 221 and 222:
Figure A52: Nueva Vizcaya, poverty
Page 223 and 224:
Figure A54: Oriental Mindoro, pover
Page 225 and 226:
Figure A56: Pampanga, poverty lines
Page 227 and 228:
Figure A58: Quezon, poverty lines a
Page 229 and 230:
Figure A60: Rizal, poverty lines an
Page 231 and 232:
Figure A62: Western Samar, poverty
Page 233 and 234:
Figure A64: Sorsogon, poverty lines
Page 235 and 236:
Figure A66: Southern Leyte, poverty
Page 237 and 238:
Figure A68: Sulu, poverty lines and
Page 239 and 240:
Figure A70: Surigao del Sur, povert
Page 241 and 242:
Figure A72: Tawi-tawi, poverty line
Page 243 and 244:
Figure A74: Zamboanga del Norte, po
Page 245 and 246:
Figure A76: 2nd District, poverty l
Page 247 and 248:
Figure A78: 4th District, poverty l
Page 249 and 250:
Figure A80: Biliran, poverty lines
Page 251 and 252:
Figure A82: Saranggani, poverty lin
Page 253 and 254:
Figure A84: Compostela Valley, pove
Page 255 and 256:
Figure A86: Shariff Kabunsuan, pove
Page 257 and 258:
Figure A88: Isabela City, poverty l
show all

A Simple Poverty Scorecard for the Philippines - About the Philippines

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?