16 CARGILL NEWS SPECIAL REPORT COPING WITH THE UNTHINKABLE Photo by Lisa Vickstrom
Tran Ngoc-Thanh saw some of the worst manifestations of Avian Influenza unfold before his eyes. “In 2004, Avian Influenza was a serious problem in Vietnam,” said Ngoc-Thanh, who is poultry project manager for <strong>Cargill</strong> Animal Nutrition in Bien Hoa, Vietnam. “The media talked about it almost every day.” At that time, the H5N1 strain of Avian Influenza had affected poultry in nearly 75 percent of Vietnam’s provinces. Avian Influenza had its biggest impact on poultry in Vietnam. It accounted for about half of the approximately 200 people worldwide who caught the virus. About half of those who became ill later died. “When we recognized that Avian Influenza had come to Dong Nai province, where our poultry farm is located, we decided to close the farm,” Ngoc-Thanh said. “We kept about 70 percent of our employees at work for their own protection. For nearly four months from January to the end of April in 2004, the employees had to stay on the farm. When the government announced that Vietnam was free of Avian Influenza, we allowed our employees to go back home every day after work.” It was a small preview of some of the disruption that could occur if Avian Influenza affected humans. In Vietnam, that problem came from people living among backyard poultry and not taking prudent sanitary precautions. In addition to the hardship of not being able to go home every day after work, the <strong>Cargill</strong> employees in Vietnam had to cope with knowing that some people were becoming sick through close and repeated contact with diseased birds or contaminated surfaces. It was a stressful time, but the <strong>Cargill</strong> people had the advantage of knowledge and understanding. “Our employees all knew that our birds were free of Avian Influenza, and they understood that if there was no outbreak in the farm, they were safe,” Ngoc-Thanh said. Pandemic scenarios Of any country, Vietnam came the closest to the two scenarios the <strong>Cargill</strong> Avian Influenza Task Force and Experts Group have developed around human pandemic flu. Pandemic flu is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new influenza virus appears in the human population. The H5N1 is a strain with pandemic potential, since it might ultimately adapt into a strain that is contagious among humans. Once this adaptation occurs, it will no longer be a bird virus – it will be a human flu virus. While efficient human-to-human transmission of H5N1 Avian Influenza hasn’t occurred, some scientists are concerned that the mutation will eventually happen. Other scientists insist that this development is unlikely. What nobody knows is whether a mutation may occur or the severity of a new human virus. As the <strong>Cargill</strong> task force and Experts Group looked at human pandemic flu scenarios, they assumed that a pandemic – whether severe or not – would result in trade and travel restrictions. Depending on the severity, there would be increased absenteeism and productivity worldwide. And the pandemic would result in human deaths. One scenario <strong>Cargill</strong> developed was called “Breaking Apart.” In this pessimistic scenario, governments and others fail to work together to address Avian Influenza in poultry. As international cooperation breaks down, governments create nationalistic measures, such as closing down borders. The consequences of those actions could lead to an erosion of the global financial markets. The more “optimistic” pandemic scenario is called “Emerging Order,” in which a public-private partnership addresses Avian Influenza in poultry and reacts swiftly if a human-to-human mutation begins to occur. The task force and Experts Group decided to focus on the more optimistic “Emerging Order” scenario after an informal meeting involving a half dozen or so people from <strong>Cargill</strong>, McDonald’s, the COPING WITH THE UNTHINKABLE The greatest fear about Avian Influenza is that the virus will mutate so it can spread among humans. <strong>Cargill</strong> is planning so it can be ready for such a worst-case scenario. BY MARK KLEIN COPING WITH THE UNTHINKABLE University Minnesota’s Center for Animal Health and Food Safety, the World Bank and the OIE, which is the World Organization for Animal Health. “At the meeting, we all felt there was a growing recognition that to be successful at reducing the risks associated with bird flu and a pandemic, we needed collaboration across many entities – governments, intergovernmental agencies, non-governmental organizations, academia and private industry,” said Mike Robach, <strong>Cargill</strong> vice president of Corporate Food Safety Regulatory Affairs. To encourage collaboration, <strong>Cargill</strong> and McDonald’s created a public-private partnership called SSAFE, which stands for Safe Supply of Affordable Food Everywhere. “SSAFE is at the center of <strong>Cargill</strong>’s efforts,” said Robach, who is vice president CARGILL NEWS SPECIAL REPORT 17
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