NSP System: 10-Year Transmission Plan / 20-Year ... - Xcel Energy

NSP System:10-YearTransmission Plan /20-Year ScenarioAssessmentDecember 2011This report contains transmission planning datathat may be conceptual in nature and is subjectto change. The transmission projects listed maychange scope or not be constructed

Purpose and Scope• The purpose of this document is to present thetransmission plans and needs on the NSPM/NSPWintegrated transmission system (NSP System) lookingforward 10-20 years• Scope of work:• Perform an annual assessment and update of the NSPSystem transmission assets– NERC reliability standards compliance requirements– Load forecast (2011) ( including wholesale)– Resource plan (2011)– MN Renewable Energy Standard– Regional Delivery of Wind Generation• Stakeholder input• Input on needs and responsive plans are encouraged fromstakeholders• Plan Subject to Midwest ISO stakeholder process

Executive Summary• 10-Year Transmission Plan• Core Reliability projects assessed (2012-16)• States Renewable Energy Standards– MN RES 30 % renewables by 2020– Wisc RES 10% renewables by 2015– ND RES 10% renewables by 2015– SD RES 10% renewables by 2015– Western MN, eastern ND & SD wind generation major driver• Significant sub-regional and regional transmissioninvolvement– CAPX 2020 group 1 completion by 2016– La Crosse-Eastern Wisconsin 345 kV projects 2018-2028 inservice– Second Manitoba Hydro 500 kV in MISO TSR for 2020 inservice– MISO MVP Group 1 Portfolio projects

Executive Summary, cont.• Regional studies and proposals• Potential with national RES policy development• Wind generation purchases primary driver• Regional 765 kV proposals• Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC)• Projects under study proposed by regional entities– MISO Regional Generation Outlet Study (RGOS 1 and 2)– Phase 1 MVP portfolio– MH Expansion Plan– Green Power Express 765 kV project– SMARTransmission StudyNote: NSP is participating in these studies to ensure the NSPSystem and local area are properly represented and to ensurecustomer focus, cost effectiveness, operational reliability andregional policymaker alignment.

Key Messages• 10-Year Plan• New load peak in July 2011 shows growth• Wind generation continues to be a driver oftransmission although development slower than inrecent past• CAPX 2020 projects support Minnesota RenewableGoals• MISO MVP Group 1 Portfolio expected to be approvedin by the end of 2011• 20-Year Transmission Scenario Assessment• 20-year scenario assessment is a conceptual vision forthe NSP area• NSP evaluated 3 unique transmission scenarios• Scenarios include various levels of renewable energy,and varying potential upper Midwest environmentalpolicies

Key Messages• Regional Studies and Proposals• Wind potential in Dakotas, Iowa and Minnesota is onedriver for interest in regional transmission overlaydevelopment• NSP engaged in regional and national efforts tobroaden policy considerations– Support for renewable energy– Incorporate potential climate change policy impacts– Evaluation of various export strategies– Assure coordination with NSP transmission systemNote: NSP is participating in these studies to ensure the NSPsystem and local area are properly represented and to ensurecustomer focus, cost effectiveness, operational reliability andregional policymaker alignment.

Major Changes from 2010• Corridor Update Project Removed from proposedprojects– The need for the Corridor Updateproject has pushed the potential in-service dateout past the current planning horizon due toamounts of generation needed for meeting RESrequirements• NSP/NSPW reached a new system peak summer2011, as did the MISO footprint

Updates to NERC Requirements• FERC/NERC ongoing investigations ofdisturbances• TPL-001-2, update to existing TPL-001throughTPL-004 standards• TPL-001-2 may increase the scope of annualassessment due to new performance requirements• Ongoing compliance studies may identify newnetwork upgrade projects• FAC-008-3, pending FERC approval• Continued prior outage studies• Ongoing Standards development

NERC 2011 Long-Term ReliabilityAssessmentNSPMISO Area - MRO Region• Reliability Assessment• 2011 39.6 % reserve margin in the MISO Area (NSP) versus NERCreference margin of 15 %• 2020 33.4 % reserve margin in the MISO Area (NSP) versus NERCreference margin of 15 %• Emerging Reliability issues• Integration of Variable generation, Planning Reserve margin• System Modeling improvement and Coordination• Environmental Regulations and impacts to BES• MRO highlights• 1) Peak load increase at 1.0 % (MRO) , matching NSP around 1.0 %• 2) Changing membership – Joining: Big River Electric Corporation12/1/2010; Leaving: First Energy and Cleveland Public Power exited June1, 2011 and Duke Energy Ohio and Duke Energy Kentucky exit January 1,2012• Key Finding - Transmission• Transmission is responding to increased plans for integrating and deliverynew generation (renewable); construction is on pace with projections.

NSP System Statistics: 2011• 7,210 miles of transmission (34.5 kVand above)• 477 substations served• 7,570 MW Xcel Energy-ownedgeneration• 1,292 MW Wind generation• NSP System Previous Peak Load:9,131 MW (Actual) (August 2010)• NSP System Peak Load 9,544 MW(Actual) (July 2011)

NSP Transmission System• NSP’s transmission assets are located in MN, WI,ND, SD, and MI• Under operational control of the Midwest IndependentTransmission System Operator, Inc. (MISO)• Major Utility Interconnections• Dairyland Power Cooperative, Great River Energy,Minnesota Power, Manitoba Hydro Electric Board, OtterTail Power, ITC Midwest, Western Area PowerAdministration, American Transmission Company LLCand others• Under Functional control of MISO. NSP Systemplanning subject to MISO TransmissionExpansion Plan (MTEP) process

NSP Companies Retail Service Territory

MISO Service Territory

Upper MidwestTransmission Grid

Planning Principles• Principles• Focus on customers and affordability• Ensure alignment with policy makers• Ensure cost recovery support from regulators• Coordinate with local regional utilities• Actively participate in regional plan development

NSP System Planning process• Reliability planning and other studies• Annual NERC assessments• Make extensive use of regional planning groupsand the MISO MTEP process• Participate in the NSP Area Sub-Regional PlanningGroup meetings• Issues and proposals submitted to MTEP process• Issues and Proposals also aired at the MTO & submittalin the Minnesota Biennial Transmission Planning Report

Generation InterconnectionPlanning Process• Planning for Generation Additions Performed byMISO• All requests to interconnect with the NSP transmissionsystem must be made with MISO• For further information go to:– www.midwestiso.org

Regional Planning Process• NSP internal reliabilityannual reviews• MN TransmissionAssessment andCompliance Team(MNTACT)• Minnesota joint utility annualNERC assessment• NSP Area Sub-RegionalPlanning Group’s (SPG)• Coordination of studies andplans• MISO TransmissionExpansion Plan (MTEP)• MISO annual plan andFERC order 890 compliance• MISO Initiated studies• Interconnection-wideplanning such as theEastern InterconnectionPlanning Collaborative(EIPC)• Special purpose studies• State ordered studies• Renewable Energy Standard(RES)– 2016 RES• Distributed RenewableGeneration (DRG)• MN Biennial Plan

Regional Planning Process

Economic Planning• Economic planning involves• Various resource scenario evaluations• Economic impact of market congestion on transmissionelements• Energy and demand loss evaluation on transmissionelements• Benefits frequently not large enough to justifystand alone transmission investment• Economic Benefits coupled with other benefits(reliability, local or regional policy, etc) togetherenter into transmission alternative evaluation

Economic Planning• NSP reviews studies by others and is activelyinvolved in regional and Sub-Regional economicplanning efforts such as:• The Department Energy (DOE) national transmissioncongestion studies• MTEP process• NSP Area SPG’s• MNTACT Study Group• MISO MVP

MISO MVP Candidate Projects

MISO Top CongestedFlowgates

Stakeholder Input• MISO MTEP process sub-regional meetings• MISO posts these SPM meetings on their publicwebsite• MISO sends out an email to the TransmissionCustomers list• http://www.midwestiso.org/page/Expansion+Planning• MN Biennial Plan Annual public meetings• Local and regional newspaper ad• http://www.minnelectrans.com

2011 Planning Process CalendarJan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovDec5 year capitalbudget studiesNSP Load InterconnectionStudies5 year budgetapprovedNSP 10 year plan and5 year Budget StudiesMinnesota TransmissionAssessment ComplianceMTO Public Hearings &Biennial PlanGeneration Interconnection andTransmission Service Studies (MISOProcess)Northern MapSubregionalPlanning GroupMTEP13 Submittalsand FERC 890MTEP13PublicmeetingsMISO MTEP12Study and PlanningGroup MeetingFinal PlanDevelopedMTEP12 MISOBoard Approval

Planning CriteriaSteady State Planning CriteriaLimitsSystem IntactConditionPost-ContingencyConditionTransmission LineLoading100% of Rating 110% of rating for singlecontingency, unless limited byterminal equipment or lineclearanceTransformer Loading 100% of Rating Summer 115% postcontingencyif precontingencyloading is below90%Generator BusVoltage0.95 to 1.05 per unit 0.95 to 1.05 per unitLoad Bus VoltageTwin Cities metro0.92 to 1.05 per unit.Outside TC Metro0.90 to 1.10 per unitTwin Cities Metro0.92 to 1.05 per unit.Outside TC Metro0.90 to 1.10 per unit.

Planning CriteriaDynamic Stability CriteriaNERCCategoriesTransient VoltageDeviation LimitsRotor Angle OscillationDamping Ratio LimitsANothing in addition to NERC RequirementsBCMinimum 0.70 p.u. atany busMinimum 0.70 p.u. atany busNot to be less than0.0081633 for disturbanceswith faults or less than0.0167660 for line trips.Not to be less than0.0081633 for disturbanceswith faults or less than0.0167660 for line trips.DNothing in addition to NERC Requirements

DriversTransmission DevelopmentLoad growthState renewableportfoliostandardsRegional andNationalRenewablePolicy• Load forecast (9,544 MW in 2011)• Wholesale/retail load serving interconnections• NERC Reliability compliance and planning criteria• MN RES 30 % renewables by 2020• Wisc RES 10% renewables by 2015• ND RES 10% (RPS Goal) renewables by 2015• SD RES 10% (RPS Goal) renewables by 2015• Western MN, Eastern ND & SD major windresources• National Energy policy• Potential national Renewable Energy Standard• Carbon Emissions Reduction ( Cap and Trade?)• Intermittent renewable resource reliability andoperations criteria

2011Historic Load Growth (NSP Native)1200010000800060004000200002005198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003Actual Demand MW20092007

203120302029DriversLow but continuing load growth (NSP Native)10,40010,20010,00020-Year GrowthRate = 0.58%9,8009,6009,4009,2009,000201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025202620272028*Forecast November 2011

DriverState Renewable Generation PolicyRenewable Energy MW Gap Analysis -- MN RES UtilitiesAcquired Capacity and MW Needed for RES Compliance700060006240500045314959484151454608Megawatts4000300030454069Acquired MWNeeded MW MN RESNeeded MW Other Jurisdictions2000100039011581305155602012 2016 2020 2025RES Milestone YearsSource: 2011 Biennial TransmissionProjects Report Nov. 1 st , 2011

DriverGeneration Additions

DriverNational Renewable PolicyMidwest wind for national RES?

NSP System Sub-regional Plan

CAPX2020Group 1 ProjectsNearly 700 miles and $1.7 billion• Upsizing adds about $200 millionFargo-St. Cloud-MonticelloBrookings County-HamptonHampton-Rochester-La CrosseBemidji-Grand Rapids250-miles, 345-kV240-miles, 345-kV150-miles, 345-kV70-miles, 230-kV• Alleviates emerging community servicereliability concerns around the state• Critical foundation for future transmission andgeneration• Provide needed transmission capacity tosupport new generation outlet• In-service dates from 2011-2015• CAPX 2020 Group 1 projects resulted from Vision plan

Post CapX 2020Potential Projects44*21431. Corridor (Granite Falls-Twin Cities345 kV) Project• Reviewing in light of MISO MVPGroup 1 projects• Increase Western MN- MISOmarket transfer 1000 MW• Support wind generationdevelopment2. Manitoba- Minnesota 500 kV• Increase MH to US transfer 1100MW• MISO Manitoba Hydro Group TSRStudy3. La Crosse-Madison 345 kV• Multiple purpose line• Increase Western MN- MISOmarket transfer 2000 MW4. Other potential projects furthersupport wind generationdevelopment

NSP CORE10-Year Transmission Plan

5-Year Expansion Plan (2010-2014)Planning ZonesZone 1Zone 2Zone 3Twin Cities MetroAreaSoutheastMinnesotaSt Cloud and WestCentral MinnesotaZone 4 South Dakota /Sioux FallsZone 5Zone 6Zone 7NorthernWisconsinSouthernWisconsinNorth DakotaZone 8 Minnesota Valley /SW Minnesota

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 1: Twin Cites Metro Area• Twin Cities metro made up ofMinneapolis/St. Paul andsurrounding suburbs• Max Generation: 3518 MW• Peak Load: 5388 MW (60% of NSPSystem load)• CAPX 2020 Brookings 345 kV linebegins development of an outer 345kV transmission ring of the metroarea.• Issues• 345 kV transformer capacitymaxed out• Impact of reduced 115 kVgeneration due to high windgeneration conditions• Inner city/suburbs require newdistribution substations withassociated transmission• Expansion of metro growthoutside the US 694/494 freewayloop

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 1: Twin Cites Metro Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Eden Prairie345/115 kVtransformerReplace existing 448 MVAtransformers with two new672 MVA transformersTBDReliability2 Upgrade RedRocktransformersUpgrade Red Rock 115/345kV transformers to 672 MVATBDReliability53 New 115kVsubstationsHiawatha and Midtown new115kV Substations2013 Distribution67813&424 Hiawatha –Midtown 115kV5 HollydaleDistributionInterconnection6 Scott Co.-Augusta–West Waconiaconversion7 Glencoe – WestWaconiaconversionNew double circuit 115kVline from Hiawatha toMidtownUpgrade distributionsubstation to 115 kV andincrease loadingConvert the existing 69 kV linealong with the distributionsubstations to 115 kVConvert the 69 kV line betweenGlencoe and West Waconia to 115kV2013 Distribution2013 Distribution2013 Reliability2013 Reliability8 Scott County-WestgateconversionConvert the 69 kV line betweenWestgate – Scott County to 115 kValong with Excelsior andDeephaven substations2014 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 1: Twin Cites Metro Area (2010-2014)12&15# Project Comments ISD Drivers9 KohlmanLake –Goose Lake2 nd circuitConvert existing single circuitto double circuit.2014 Reliability169&101310 KohlmanLake – LongLake 2 ndcircuit11 Lake Marion– Burnsville115 kV lineupgradeConvert existing bifurcatedline into double circuitUpgrade existing 115 kV lineto higher capacity.2014 Reliability2014 Cap Xunderlyingsystemupgrade1412 ChisagoCounty 2 nd345/115 kVtransformer13 KohlmanLake reactorprojectInstall 2 nd Chisago County345/115 kV transformerInstall 30 MVAR reactor onKohlman Lake 345/115 kVtransformer tertiary2014 Reliability2014 TC Highvoltagemitigation14 Red Rockreactor projectInstall 30 MVAR reactor on RedRock 345/115 kV transformer tertiary2014 TC Highvoltagemitigation1115 Chisago Countyreactor projectInstall 40 MVAR reactor on ChisagoCounty 345//115 kV transformertertiary2014 TC highvoltagemitigation16 Riverside –Apache upgradeUpgrade the existing Riverside –Apache 115 kV line to highercapacity.2014 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Potential Transmission ProjectsZone 1: Twin Cites Metro Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Red Rock – Afton115 kVRebuild existing RedRock – Afton 115kV lineto 795 ACSSReliability32 Parkers Lake345/115 kVtransformerReplace existing 448MVA transformers withtwo new 672 MVAtransformersReliability23 Meadow LakeDistributionInterconnectionNew 115 kVdistributionsubstation and line2015 Distribution1

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 2: South East Minnesota• Rochester is the majorload center. RPU owned.• Increased interest inrenewable generation inthis area.• Max Generation: 2422MW• Except in the vicinity ofRochester this area isprimarily rural withminimal load growth• CAPX 2020 La Crosse345 kV line will addsubstantial capability toserve Rochester• Issues• Wind generationpotential• Aging 69 kVinfrastructure

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 2: South East Minnesota (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Prescott Capbank2 PleasantValley – Byron161kVAdd a new 10 MVARcapacitor bankNew 161kV line fromPleasant Valley –Byron (RIGO)2014 Reliability2013 GenerationOutletNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Potential Transmission ProjectsZone 2: South East Minnesota (2015-2019)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 SpringCreek –Lake City161 kVlineBuild 161 kV linealong existing69kV line corridor(double circuit).2017-2019ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 3: West Central Area• St. Cloud is the largest loadcenter in the area.• CAPX 2020 Fargo-Monticelloline will help support the area.• Max Generation: 2976 MW• CAPX 2020 Fargo line willprovide the bulk powertransmission anchor for thereliability of the wholeplanning zone.• Issues• St. Cloud transmissionmaxed out• Minimal growth in the west• Small wind development inthe west

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 3: West Central Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Benton Co. –Mayhew Lake115kV2 St. Cloud –Granite City115kV3 Maple Lake –Watkins 69kVRe-Terminate one of theBenton – Granite City circuitinto Mayhew Lakesubstation, by building 4miles of new 115 kV line.Eliminate the 3 terminal linebetween Granite City,Benton County and St.CloudRebuild Maple Lake toWatkins 69kV line to 477ACSR2012 Reliability2012 Reliability2012 Reliability4 Sherco DataCenterAdd new data center to theSherco SubstationTBDLoad5 Paynesville –Belgrade 69kVRebuild existing 69 kV lineto 477 ACSR2015 Reliability6 Douglas County69 kV work2 nd 115/69 kV transformer atDouglas County2011 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Potential Transmission ProjectsZone 3: West Central Area (2015-2019)• Possible 69 kVcondition upgradesoutside of the St. Cloudarea.• Possible winddevelopment coulddrive upgrades in thewest.

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 4: Sioux Falls Area• Sioux Falls is the largestload center in this area.• Close proximity to theBuffalo Ridge area.• Wind generation is heavilylocated around this area.• Issues• Expansion of medicalcampus planned incentral and west SiouxFalls• Large amounts of windgeneration potential westof the city.• At western edge of NSPSystem/MISO

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 4: Sioux Falls Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 New 115 kVLawrencesubstation2 New 115 kVsubstation called“Falls”3 West Sioux Falls –Falls – Lawrence69 kV LineConversion to 115kVConvert existing Lawrence115/69/34.5 kV substationto 115/34.5 kV, breakerand a half configurationBuild new Falls substationto replace existing SiouxFalls substation andconvert from 69/13.8 kV to115/13.8 kVConvert existing WestSioux Falls – Sioux Falls –Lawrence 69 kV line to115 kV (959/TW ACSS)and minimal substationtermination work at WestSioux Falls2014 Reliability2014 Reliability2014 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 4: Sioux Falls Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Falls substation115 kVterminationAdd termination at Fallssubstation for new 115 kVline2015-2019Reliability2 Convert SouthSioux Fallssubstation to 115kVBuild new South SiouxFalls substation to replaceexisting South Sioux Fallssubstation and convertfrom 69/13.8 kV to115/13.8 kV2015-2019Reliability3 West Sioux Falls –Falls – LincolnCounty 69 kV LineConversion to 115kVConvert existing WestSioux Falls – South SiouxFalls – Lincoln Co. 69 kVline to 115 kV (959/TWACSS) and minimalsubstation terminationwork at West Sioux Falls2015-2019Reliability• Potential need for bulk supply source onthe west side of the city of Sioux Fallssometime after 2019• Growing load around the 115 kV loop• Wind development may accelerate needfor additional bulk supply sources aroundSioux Falls in the future

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 5: Northern Wisconsin Area• Eau Claire is the largestload center in the area.• Primarily rural load.• Minimal small customerload growth• Major transmissionexpansion underconstruction in Eau Claire• Issues• Northern Wisconsintransmission maxed out• Substantial majorindustrial expansion underconsideration in northernWisconsin

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 5: Northern Wisconsin Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Weber lakeSubstationA new 115/34.5 kVsubstation on 115 kV linebetween Park falls andIronwood.2012 Reliability2 Stone Lake-Couderay161 kV lineNew 161 kV substation andline from Stone Lake-CouderayReliability13 Osprey –Park FallsRebuild4 Park FallsBio-RefineryconnectionRebuild 1922 latticestructures and string largerconductor115 kV radial line from ParkFalls sub to substantial newcustomer2012 Reliability2012 Reliability45 Couderay –Osprey 161kV lineExtension of Stone Lake –Couderay to supportincreased pumping loads2014 Reliability253Note: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 5: Northern Wisconsin Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments Drivers1 BayfieldLoop 115 kV2 Pokegama161/69kVSubstation3 Withee115/69 kVTransformerRebuild existing Iron River –Gingles 34.5 kV loop to 115 kVwith some DistributionunderbuildBuild a new 161/69kV substationat Pokegama and build a linefrom BarronInstall a 120 MVA transformer atWitheeLoadShedReliabilityReliabilityNote: Project scope and timing subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 6: Southern Wisconsin Area• Lacrosse is the largestload center in the area• Made up of agriculturaland smaller communities• CAPX 2020 creates a bulksupply source to the cityof La Crosse in 2015• NSP System highlyinterconnected withDairyland Power Coop inthis area

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 6: Southern Wisconsin Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 New transformerat MonroeCounty2 Camp McCoy –Cataract 69 kVline rebuild3 Couleetransformerupgrade and ringbusMonroe County new 70MVA 161/69kVtransformer, includingnew breakersRebuild 4 miles of 1/0ACSR 69 kV line to 477ACSRReplace Coulee161/69kV transformer#5 with 112 MVA unit2011 Reliability2011 Reliability2012 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 6: Southern Wisconsin Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 La Crosse–WestSalem69kVRebuild La Crosseto West Salem 69kVline to 477 ACSS2015-2019Reliability2 La CrossetransformerupgradeReplace La Crosse161/69kVtransformer #2 with112 MVA unit2015-2019ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 7: North Dakota Area• Fargo and Grand Forks arethe primary load centers• New Bison substation forthe CAPX Group 1 projects• Issues• Large amounts of windproposed west of Fargoin North Dakota

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 7: North Dakota Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers21 Maple River –Cass County345kVMaple River – CassCounty, new 345kVline (operated at230kV) and CassCounty 230/115kVtransformerReliability2 Prairie 3 rdtransformerInstall 3 rd 230/115 kVtransformer at Prairiesubstation2014 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 7: North Dakota Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments Drivers1 Maple River –Cass County345kVextension2 Cass County– Red River115kV3 Maple River –Cass County– Flint 230kVExtend Maple River –Cass County 345 kVLine to FlintSubstation (viadouble-circuit withMaple River –Sheyenne 230 kV line)Cass County to RedRiver 115kV, upgradeto 795 ACSSMaple River – CassCounty – Flint 230 kVline, convert to 345 kVReliabilityReliabilityReliabilityNote: Project scope and timing subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 8: Minnesota Valley Area• Mankato is the primary loadcenter• New Helena substation for theCAPX 2020 Group 1 projects• Issues- Local load serving- Wind interconnectioninterest• New 345/115/69 kV substationis planned between Wilmarthand Helena substations forload serving purposes. Theproposed in-service date forthis project is 2012

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 8: Minnesota Valley Area (2010-2014)# Project Comments ISD Drivers1 Fenton 69 kVinterconnectionNew 69 kV in andout at Fenton2011 ReliabilityNote: Project scope andtiming subject to change

Proposed Transmission ProjectsZone 8: Minnesota Valley Area (2015-2019)# Project Comments Drivers1 WorthingtonLoadservingPossible new 161/115kV or 115/69 kV sourceat NoblesReliabilityNote: Project scope and timing subject to change

Minnesota Valley Area• This area is mostlyimpacted by high flowsdue to proximity of windresources• The existing loads in thisarea would need to beshed after n-1 conditionsto meet NERC TPL-003standard• The proposed plan is toupgrade 27 miles ofMinnesota Valley –Maynard – Kerkhoven tapline to higher capacity by2014

Fargo Area• The largest loads in this areaare Red River, Cass Countyand Moderow substationsserved by the 115 kV lines inthe area• Several transmissioncontingencies would requireshedding load during peakand off peak conditions tomeet NERC TPL-003standard• The proposed plan is to builda new 5 mile 115 kV line fromMaple River substation toRed River substation, toprovide the redundancyneeded to mitigate anyviolations during Category Ccontingencies

Sioux Falls Area• Largest loads served by 115kV lines in the area:• West Sioux Falls• Cherry Creek substations• Peak load shed required forseveral transmissioncontingencies to meet NERCTPL-003 standard• Distribution need for a newsubstation in the city toaccommodate load growthbeyond the capabilities of 69kV• Rebuild 10 miles of 69 kV to115 kV, including 6 miles ofdouble circuit 115/69 kV• Sioux Falls substation will berelocated to accommodatethe larger lines anddistribution needs

20-Year Scenario Assessment

20-Year Scenario Assessment• Assessment of transmission needs in NSP areafor potential future renewable policies• Three scenarios based on possible upperMidwest renewable energy policies andgeneration patterns• EHV overlay address potential nationalrenewable policy

20-Year Scenario AssessmentAnalysis• Resource availability• Variety of potential locations for new generationresources– Most likely to develop outside the Twin Cities metropolitanarea.• Assumed that new nuclear power plants on NSPsystem unlikely during next 20 years• Assumed that small scale distributed generation willcontinue in their present role in the resource plan or fortransmission needs.• Solar technology is starting to be installed, but will likelydevelop in the sunnier American southwest

2010 20-Year Vision Plan• 2010 Vision Study waslocalized to the NSPregion• For the 20-Year VisionPlan the facilities shownwere verified to still be thenext likely transmissionbuildout.• The facilities werecommon to all generationscenarios studied• The following slidesdescribe the 2009 BridgeStudy analysis which wasa broad regional 20-yearvision plan

2009 Bridge Study Strategic Vision: Scenario 1High Internal Renewable• Scenario 1-- High Minnesota onlyrenewable development• Normal load growth• Minnesota will continue RES obligation• Surrounding states do not expand abovetheir present minimal RES obligations, ordevelop internally and require no deliveryfrom Minnesota or North and SouthDakota• Statistics• 1,100 miles of 345 kV double circuit• 110 miles of 500 kV• Total estimated cost of: ~$4 billion

2009 Bridge Study Strategic Vision : Scenario 2Sub-Regional Renewable• Scenario 2-- Sub-Regional renewabledevelopment• Normal load growth• Upper Midwest (MN, WI, IA, ND, SD) alldevelop an obligation similar to the MNRES• States outside the Upper Midwest alsoexpand on or initiate their presentrenewable obligations• Statistics• 1,200 miles of 345 kV double circuit• 110 miles of 500 kV• 730 miles of 765 kV– Total estimated cost of: ~$6.7billion

2009 Bridge Study Strategic Vision : Scenario 3Non Renewable Long Range• Scenario 3 -- Non-renewable long-rangefuture• Scenario 1, with the same renewableexpansion through the year 2016• Beginning in 2017, assume RPSrequirements in Western MISO andthroughout Eastern Interconnect arescaled back• US does not initiate a carbon reductioninitiative, Minnesota will repeal its coalplant moratorium• Statistics• 1,000 miles of 345 kV double circuit• 110 miles of 500 kV• 100 miles of 765 kV– Total Estimated Cost of: ~ $4 billion

2009 Bridge Study Strategic Vision : Scenario 4Low Load Growth• Scenario 4 — Low load growth• Flat load growth• Upper Midwest (MN, WI, IA, ND, SD) alldevelop an obligation similar to the MNRES• States outside the Upper Midwest alsoexpand on or initiate their presentrenewable obligations• Transmission similar to Scenario 2 dueto the similar regional renewableexpansion• Statistics• 1,100 miles of 345 kV double circuit• 110 miles of 500 kV• 570 miles of 765 kV• Total Estimated Cost of: ~ $6 billion

Regional

Extra-High VoltageTransmission Overlays• NSP System situated between some of thenations best wind and potential central Midwestand Eastern load serving entities• Potential National Renewable Energy Standard• Potential “interstate highways” to ship greatplains wind generation under study

Transmission OverlayProposals• Various study/proposals• MISO Renewable Generation Outlet Study (RGOS 1and 2)www.midwestiso.org/home• Green Power Expresswww.itctransco.com/projects/thegreenpowerexpress.html• SMARTransmission Studywwwqa.smartstudy.biz/• Joint Coordinated System Plan (JCSP)www.nyiso.com/public/services/planning/crpp.jsp• Eastern Interconnection Planning Collaborative (EIPC)www.eipconline.com

Transmission OverlayProposals• NSP Involvement• NSP is participating in the overlay studies– To ensure the NSP system and local area are properlyrepresented– To ensure customer focus, cost effectiveness, operationalreliability and regional policymaker alignment– NSP believes it can best look out for these interests bydirectly participating in these studies.

RGOS (MISO) Study Scope• Develop regional transmission system to supportrenewable portfolio standards• Phase I – Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Iowa(approximately 15,000 MW)• Phase II – RPS increases in Phase I states andremaining MISO states not in Phase I (approximately22,000 MW)• www.midwestiso.org/page/Expansion+Planning

RGOS Wind Scenarios• Zones• 20 energy zones withinUMTDI plus additional9 zones added in IL• UMTDI zones to serveUMTDI states, noexport• IL zones to serve IL(Ameren, ComEd)• Zones established at750MW-1500MWcapacity each• Indicative scenariosused 18-22 zones• Two primarytransmission build outsdeveloped for eachscenario based onindicative work• 345 kV and 765 kV (with345)Scenario A• Scenario hashigherconcentrationof zones in theND/SDcompared to BScenario B• Scenario hashigherconcentrationof zones inMN/IAcompared to A

* MISO RGOS Phase I Study15 GW Scenario A

* MISO RGOS Phase I Study15 GW Scenario B

* MISO RGOS Phase I Study25 GW Scenario A

* MISO RGOS Phase I Study25 GW Scenario B

Green Power Express Proposal* ITC’s Green Power Express

Joint Coordinated System PlanFigure 1-3: 20% Wind Energy Scenario Conceptual Transmission Overlay

(The Strategic Midwest Area Transmission Study)SMARTransmission Study• Sponsors: American Transmission Company,Electric Transmission America, LLC (AmericanElectric Power and MidAmerican Energy HoldingCo), Exelon, MidAmerican Energy, Xcel Energyand NorthWestern Energy• Purpose: examine transmission infrastructureneeded to support renewable energydevelopment and transport to consumers in theUpper Midwest, the Ohio River Valley, and fartherEast.• Status: Study report has been published.• www.smartstudy.biz

Links to additional information onTransmission Plans• The Minnesota TransmissionOwners• www.minnelectrans.com• The CAPX 2020 projects• www.capx2020.com• The Midwest IndependentTransmission System Operator,Inc. (MISO)• www.midwestiso.org• Green Power Express• www.itctransco.com/projects/thegreepowerexpress.html• MN renewable Energy standardstudies• www.minnelectrans.com/reports.html• Regional Generation OutletStudies• www.midwestmarket.org/publish/folder/6871db_117a25bcaa6_-798d048324a• Joint Coordinated System Plan• www.jcspstudy.org• SMARTransmission• wwwqa.smartstudy.biz/