RURAL IRELAND 2025 Foresight Perspectives - Coford

Rural Ireland 2025 - Synthesis Reportachieved through a confluence of fortuitouscircumstances, without any significant rise inunderlying productivity (Section 1.1). Most futuregrowth will have to come from productivityincreases. This, in turn, will require high-techenterprises and a major expansion in the contributionof market services to the macro economy.Employment in these sectors tends to locate in thelarger urban centres. At first sight the expansion inrural employment over the past decade (Section 2.1)looks optimistic, but the real picture is camouflagedby some less sanguine features. Many rural areas stillhave a high dependence on an agricultural economy,which is heavily subsidised at levels that cannot beexpected to continue through to 2025. Overall,manufacturing employment has been static, while jobgrowth in agency-assisted companies has favouredthe larger urban locations and, regionally, the east.Much of the current production-oriented FDImanufacturing could, as previously stated (Section1.1), move to lower-cost economies. Indigenousagency-assisted enterprises have shown little realgrowth in sales or exports. Construction employment,a major source of jobs for rural workers, cannot bemaintained at current exceptional levels. Tourism isexpected to expand further but its regionaldistribution remains quite selective (Section 2.1). Inaddition to these vulnerabilities, Irish rural areas areparticularly exposed to the price of fossil fuels andconstraints on gaseous emissions.Even a continuation of past trends could lead toserious policy failures, especially if judged on thecriterion of achieving balanced regionaldevelopment. Dublin and the eastern counties willcontinue to increase their share of national populationand employment. The other major urban centres willalso continue to increase size, as will population inperi-urban areas – maintaining incessant pressure oninfrastructures and utilities. Urban growth in theregions will be enhanced by dedicated enterprisepolicies, services provision and regulatory measures– in line with the National Spatial Strategy. Clusterdevelopments, in the sense of a critical mass ofenterprises benefiting from new technology, pools ofexpertise and specialised supports, will be feasible insome provincial locations. However, the ‘rural spillover’will be limited, given the human resource andinfrastructural weaknesses at rural level (Section 1.2).The BMW Region, especially the north-west, willcontinue to lag behind the economic performance ofthe rest of the country, because of its weak urbanstructure and associated factors. There will besignificant rural problems also in the traditionallystrong farming areas currently adjusting to farmoutput restrictions and eventually to world marketprices. For rural areas, generally, but especially thoseoutside the commercial farming areas, much willdepend on how functionally connected they are tourban-centred economic developments. For thoseoutside the main urban catchment areas, speciallyfocused programmes of local economic developmentwill be necessary. Some coastal and high amenityrural areas, such as the lakelands, will see furtherincreases in population, as people with high incomesor assets are able to exercise greater choice as towhere they will live – provided of course that theattractions of the physical environment are not erodedby careless, short-sighted planning.3.2 Agri-food industryWhile the contribution of agriculture to the economyis expected to decline (Section 2.1), farming andmuch of the food processing industry as well assectors supplying services to the agricultural and foodindustry, will continue to provide a base ofemployment and income generation in rural areas.In terms of full-time equivalents, farming in 2025may provide upwards of 25,000 to 35,000 jobs. Whilenot all in rural locations, there could be a further40,000 to 50,000 employed in the food and drinksindustry. Also, there will be a sizable number of ruraldwellers (say 5,000 – 10,000) with jobs in small andmedium scale companies, providing specialisedservices to the agri-food and other sectors. In total,upwards of 70,000 to perhaps 100,000 may beemployed directly and indirectly in the agri-foodsector in 2025. Thus, the agri-food sector willcontinue to play an important role in the ruraleconomy. In particular, it will provide a bulwarkagainst the risk of over-dependence on foreign multinationalcompanies.The structural changes outlined in Section 2.1 willbe attended by greater geographical differentiation infarm production. This will lead to rural Ireland in2025 being characterised by the following threeagriculturally defined spatial areas, which haveimportant implications for the rural economy.• Intensive farming areas: The projected numbersof full-time commercial farmers, mainly dairyfarmers, and associated food processingcompanies will be concentrated predominantlyin Munster and south Leinster, leading to14