RURAL IRELAND 2025 Foresight Perspectives - Coford

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Rural Ireland 2025 - Thematic Papers4. Generation of electricity from wind and waveenergy.Threats to the level of economic activity in ruralareas would include:1. Decline in numbers at work in agriculture,building, old technology manufacturing and,eventually, the food industry - employments ofparticular importance in rural areas;2. Further concentration of growth in the greaterDublin area (GDA) spearheaded by expansionof employment in internationally traded marketservices;3. Deficiencies in the development of Ireland’sknowledge economy, particularlydisadvantaging more distant parts of ruralIreland;4. Constraints on agriculture from decliningbuying power of agricultural prices and nationalobligations to curtail emissions of greenhousegases (GHG) and water pollutants;5. Decline in the amount of sea fish landed due todwindling stocks of fish and increased costs offuel;6. Fall off in rural tourism continuing andexacerbated by static productivity and the rise inearnings per hour available from other activitiestending to drive up the cost of traditional ruralhospitality.7. Early effects of global warming tending to moverainfall from east to west and from summer towinter, resulting in greater risks of drought inthe south east. Wetness of the ground from thefall onwards would curtail the grazing seasonand require increased storage of slurry.In conclusion this ‘business as usual’ baselinescenario is but a starting point for considering whatmeasures might be taken to capitalise on theopportunities and avoid its worst aspects.Table 1: Baseline projection of Ireland's Economic Growth to 2025.Items 2002 2025 Increase(percent)Total population (thousand) 3,910 4,900 25%Age group 15 to 64 years(percentage of population) 67% 64%(thousand) 2,616 3,140 13%Labour force participation rate (percent) 68% 72%Labour force (thousand) 1,798 2,153 20%Unemployed (Principal Econ. Status)(percent) 7% 6%Unemployed (thousand) 122 140 10%Numbers employed (thousand) 1,720 2,210 20%Productivity(euro(2002)per person employed) with a 2% growth per yearGross National Product per person employed 60,742 96,000 58%GNP: million euro (2000) 104,474 210,000 90%GNP per caput: thousand euro (2002) 26,645 43,000 60%Note: data in this table derived from:a) Those in CSO projections based on the 2002 Census with assumptions F2 and M2.b) ESRI Medium Term Review 2003-2010. Bergin, A. et al. (2003). Economic and Social Research Institute,Dublin.36
2. The Broader Rural Economy2. The Broader Rural EconomyP. Commins 1INTRODUCTIONThis paper was prepared on the basis that the ruraleconomy is not a geographically separate entity fromthe urban or general national economy. Thefunctional interdependencies between rural and urbanareas are increasing. Commuter catchment areas arebecoming more extensive. Locational decisions (byfamilies or firms) are less constrained bygeographical factors. Some services needed by ruralresidents are being centralised in main urban centres,while at the same time rural areas meet the needs ofurban-based workers and populations, especially inhousing and recreation. The proposed NationalSpatial Strategy is based on consolidating rural-urbanrelationships. A 40 km radius around 13 of our largerurban centres would include all but 10% of thenational population. Even using size-of-place criteria,the 1999 White Paper on Rural Developmentconsidered the “rural” to be all the territory outsidethe five major urban areas; in which case some 60%of the national population is rural.For these reasons, the “broader rural economy”should be considered, for present purposes, in termsof regional or sub-regional economies where thedrivers of change will be linked to developments inthe national economy, and to how the nationaleconomy, in its “openness” to international forces,will be positioned in the wider global economy overthe next two decades.In terms of thematic coverage, the paper’s focus ison (i) enterprise and employment; (ii) infrastructuresfor innovation and access; and (iii) some aspects ofsocial development. A fourth set of issues is alsorelevant, namely, settlement patterns, population andspatial development but these are covered in aseparate paper (see Thematic Paper No. 3).The structure of the paper follows the template setfor the preparation of sectoral papers.1. DRIVERS OF CHANGE IN THE RURALECONOMY(i) Restructuring in the agri-food sectorThe longer term outcome of supply and demandforces on the agri-food sector is marked by a numberof well-established features: downward pressure onfarmgate prices and incomes; an impetus to increasescale in production and processing; replacement oflabour with capital; spatial differentiation in land usewith commercial farming becoming concentrated inthe more productive land areas; and increasingreliance on non-farm sources of income.(ii) Restructuring in the broader economyRural communities are also coming under theinfluence of the pressures of economic restructuringin the economy generally, especially as restructuringaffects opportunities for employment. Longer-termtrends are described as “tertiarisation” and“dematerialisation”. The former term denotes therelative decline of primary production and of theconventional manufacturing sector, and theexpansion of service-type occupations. The latterconcept refers to the fact that “intangible inputs” andservices, rather than raw materials, have become anincreasingly important component in the value ofgoods. These inputs include such factors as researchand development, design, logistics, marketing, etc.The contribution of “services” to GDP exceeds 70%in some developed economies, compared to 55% inIreland.(iii) Striving for competitivenessCompetition is becoming more open, international,and intense. There is a strong concern withcontrolling and lowering costs, with multinationalenterprises seeking out the locations where economicactivity can be pursued on a least-cost basis.1 Email address: mairinuichomain@eircom.net37
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RURAL IRELAND 2025 Foresight Perspectives - Coford

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