Digital Display Technology - Consumer Electronics Association

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PRODUCT OWNERSHIP*OWN PROVIDED BY OWN & PROVIDED DO NOTPERSONALLY EMPLOYER BY EMPLOYER OWNNotebook Computer 24% 13% 2% 61%Pager 15% 15% 1% 70%Win CE Palm PC 2% 0% 0% 98%Palm Pilot 7% 1% 0% 91%Other type of Handheld 4% 1% 0% 96%or Palm PC*among owners of a wireless phoneSource: CEA Market Research, 2001.Analytics is projecting that only one-third of PDAs will offerintegrated Bluetooth in 2007.Karen Walsh, the author of a new report for the ARCGroup, another U.K.-based market research house, believesthat the introduction of 3G, with its faster wide-area networkcapability, will increase the value of Bluetooth phonesand other devices, and will provide new opportunities forall players in the Bluetooth value chain, but she doesn’texpect mobile phones to drive the market for Bluetooth ontheir own.“PDAs and handheld PCs (HPCs) will play a big role inearly Bluetooth adoption,” says Walsh,“especially amongprofessional users. But these mobile computing deviceswill be available with integrated Bluetooth in much smallerpercentage rates than mobile phones.” More likely, shesays, PDAs and HPCs will become Bluetooth-enabledthrough adapter products such as compact flash cardsand clip-on devices.“Despite the high expectationsfor digital imaging as amajor near-term market driverfor PDA/phone hybrids; mobileentertainment, particularly games,is another potentially hugegrowth opportunity.”There are pluses and minuses to convergence, according tothe CEA study.To be a positive experience for consumers,convergence devices must provide the right hardware, contentand service, be easy-to-use, and enhance consumers’ability to use, transfer and create content.The downsidecomes with a steep learning curve, when there is no backwardcompatibility with a previously owned device or software,and when net benefits fail to exceed those providedby a currently owned product.Another issue: it shouldn’t bedifficult or more expensive to upgrade.Apple may take another crack at the PDA market.Applereportedly has a new device, called the “iPhone,” that offersvoice access and wireless data via an Apple Mac operatingsystem.Apple is expected to use its licensing agreement withPixo, the company that developed the software for Apple’stiny iPod MP3 music player, to add music to its new handheld.Dell Computer also says it is seriously considering offeringa handheld mobile computer with wireless capabilitiesamong other applications.LET THE GAMES BEGINDespite the high expectations for digital imaging as a majornear-term market driver for PDA/phone hybrids; mobileentertainment, particularly games, is another potentiallyhuge growth opportunity. Cahners In-Stat/MDR, a marketand statistical analytical firm, says,“Downloadable games willprove to be a lucrative revenue steam for networkproviders.” It is this potential that led Ericsson, Motorola,Nokia and Siemens to form the Mobile GamesInteroperability (MGI) Forum last year to define technicalspecifications enabling a variety of mobile games to beplayed on different devices.Then there’s video. In Japan, KDDI has announced plans tolaunch a service in October that will enable users to sendand receive videos on their mobile phones. KDDI believes5 Technologies to Watch OCTOBER 2002 11
“Designing these new,increasingly complex deviceswill continue to be a challenge,particularly as consumersdemand smaller, lighter,and less expensive modelswith new features.”the new service and new phone (made by Toshiba) will helpit sign up seven million 3G subscribers by March, about fivemillion more than it has now.The phone can store as manyas 555 video clips of five seconds in length, and takes movingpictures that can be attached to e-mail and sent toother mobile phones and PCs.The new Toshiba phone alsofeatures GPS.France Telecom also is experimenting with a software programthat will create a video link between existing PDAswith cameras.The carrier has demonstrated the systemusing a Compaq iPAQ Pocket PC.FREQUENCY OF CARRYINGTHE PHONE2000 1998All the time 33% 28%Most of the time 38% 31%Some of the time 10% 28%Almost none of the time 4% 13%Source: www.80211planet.com compilation of research forecasts, 2001.Designing these new, increasingly complex devices willcontinue to be a challenge, particularly consumers demandsmaller, lighter, and less expensive models with new features.Chipmakers are already targeting wireless and mobilecomputing applications with smaller and more efficient integratedcircuits and other components.At the same time,battery and fuel cell manufacturers are developing andlaunching new products for this market segment. ElectricFuel Corp., which makes zinc-air fuel cells, has introducedInstant Power Chargers for inherently power hungry PDAtypecommunicators and other convergence devices.Thenew fuel cells are currently available for the Handspring Teoseries, the RIM Blackberry 5810 and 5820, mm02’s xda, andPRODUCT EXPECT TO OWN FIRSTOVERALL MALE FEMALEPalm Pilot 16% 17% 15%Wireless phone with 47% 51% 44%web browsing/emailDon’t know 37% 32% 42%Source: www.80211planet.com, 2001.the Audiovox Thera. But the fuel cells come as stand-aloneunits or in combination packages with car adapters, USBadapters and travel chargers.The adoption by consumers of new mobile technologiesalso seems to be as much an issue of age as it is cultural(what sells in Japan, for example, versus the U.S.).Confirming CEA’s market study findings, a recent survey byIDC found that younger users have a clear migration planfor adopting new wireless technologies, depending on thedevice.When it comes to interest in PDAs equipped withintegrated wireless features, nearly 23 percent of the 20 to29 year olds and 24.5 percent of 30 to 39 year olds saidthey plan to use an integrated wireless PDA in the next 12months.These results decline in all other age groups.Similarly, only the over 54-age segment indicated a strongpreference for stand-alone products in the CEA study, suggestingthat this group associates convergence with complexity.Overall, 38 percent of wireless phone ownersresponding to the CEA study said they wanted a phonethat could view e-mail, a percentage that jumped to 50 percentamong 18 to 34 year olds.“The key toward growth in the mobile market going forwardwill be in delivering solutions to younger generationsof consumers, who have not settled into specific usabilitypatterns dictated by past devices and applications,” saysRandy Giusto, IDC vice president, wireless and mobiledevices and PC technology.“Younger people are less averseto change and will be more eager to accept convergingtechnologies and new converged devices that sprout fromthe wireless landscape ahead.”The market research seems to validate the direction thatseveral PDA producers already are taking; that is, develophighly segmented products, focusing heavily on youngerusers with a steady stream of new features, while alsoaddressing the needs of business and professional userswith application-specific devices of their own. For others,there is still the plain vanilla PDA. ■12 OCTOBER 2002 5 Technologies to Watch
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