LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOK - CIPD

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AUTUMN 2010Pay outlookContinuing the trend from previous surveys over the pastyear, pay settlements are expected to remain subdued inthe 12 months to September 2011. The expected meanbasic pay settlement (excluding bonuses) over this period isexpected to be 1.5%. This figure has been fairly constantsince autumn 2009.Almost four in five (79%) LMO employers are planning a payreview in the next year. Of these, almost three in ten (28%)are expecting to increase pay, while a quarter (25%) planto introduce a pay freeze. Four in ten (40%), up from threein ten last quarter (30%), say the outcome of their next payreview will depend on organisational performance.Figure 5: Average pay reward (%), by sectorIn line with recruitment and redundancy trends, the payoutlook in the private sector is more promising than in thepublic sector. The mean basic pay settlement for privatesector firms has risen in the previous three months, risingto 2.3% from 1.9%. The mean basic pay settlement in thepublic sector has fallen to just 0.25%, down from 0.7% inthe summer report.Base: those who are planning a pay review in the next 12 months (n = 376, autumn 2010)4.543.532.521.510.5A quarter of organisations are planning pay freezes intheir next pay review. Almost two-thirds of public sectororganisations (62%) are planning pay freezes. This compareswith just one in ten (10%) private sector firms and morethan a quarter (28%) of voluntary sector organisations.OPrivatePublicVoluntaryOverall0Spring 09Summer 08Autumn 08Winter 08-09Spring 09Summer 09Autumn 09Winter 09–10Spring 10Summer 10Autumn 108 cipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook
LABOUR MARKET OUTLOOKResearch methodologyThe online survey went out to a range of CIPD members, and460 usable returns were received. Respondents answereda series of questions on employment issues, from 3–30September 2010.Data since spring 2009 are weighted on the size oforganisation, sector of the organisation, and industry,according to the LMO membership profile. Comparisonswith quarters prior to spring 2009 should therefore bemade with caution.The responses were collated and compiled by Ipsos MORI.To provide more detail, the results were then reanalysed bythe size of the company, sector, region and type of business.The Labour Market Outlook survey was prepared at IpsosMORI by Oliver Wright and Diane Thebaudeau.UTcipd.co.uk/labourmarketoutlook 9
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