USAID Fragile States Strategy - The Air University

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Table 1. Analyzing Governance in Fragile States: The Fragility FrameworkEffectiveness LegitimacySecurityPoliticalEconomicSocialMilitary and police services that secure borders andlimit crimePolitical institutions and processes that adequatelyensure response to citizen needsEconomic and financial institutions and infrastructurethat support economic growth (including jobs), adaptto economic change, and manage natural resourcesProvision of basic services that generally meetdemand, including that of vulnerable and minoritygroups, is assuredMilitary and police services that are provided reasonably,equitably, and without major violation of humanrightsPolitical processes, norms, and leaders that are acceptableto the citizenryEconomic institutions, financial services, and incomegeneratingopportunities that are widely accessibleand reasonably transparent, particularly related toaccess to and governance of natural resourcesTolerance of diverse customs, cultures, and beliefsNote. The illustrations of effectiveness and legitimacy are indicative and will be refined based on pilot testing in the field.ship to these four areas are presented ina “Fragility Framework” (table 1).In addition, a number of other importantfactors need to be monitored.Of particular concern is anticipatingand ameliorating economic instability,food insecurity, and violent conflict, allof which are usually symptoms of thefailure of governance in fragile states.Likewise, differentiating the impact offragility on women and men is centralto our understanding, as data show astrong correlation between state fragilityand inequitable treatment of women.Other areas to examine include thedegree of trust and social capital insociety, demographics (such as thesize of the youth population), regionaland substate conflict, polarization andsplintering of societies, environmentaldegradation, limited or exclusive accessto natural resources, and extremisteducation. Domestic triggering eventsinclude succession crises and contestedelections. Externally generated shocks,such as a sudden fall in primary commodityprices or a natural disaster, canbe equally culpable in underminingstability. Ironically, the sudden inflowof external revenues that distorts marketsignals can be just as unsettling, unlessactions are taken to manage and investthese windfalls wisely.When deterioration in effectivenessand legitimacy combine with violentconflict, protracted state failure ishighly likely. Avoiding this scenario is ahigh priority because these states oftenbecome trapped in a deadly cycle ofrepeated failure and recovery.While in many fragile states more thanone pathway of failure is evident, commonpathways include• democratic collapse (e.g., Nigeriain 1983)• succession or reform crisis in authoritarianstates (e.g., Soviet Union in1991)• high levels of state-sponsored corruption(e.g., Philippines in 1996)• regional or guerilla rebellion (e.g.,Colombia in 2000)• violent ethnic conflict or genocide(e.g., Rwanda in 1994)• economic collapse (e.g., Zaire in theearly 1990s) or hyperinflation (e.g.,Argentina in the early 1980s)USAID will continue to refine its understandingof fragile states through improvedanalytical frameworks that provideintegrated analysis across sectors,including further development of theFragility Framework. Relevant elements4 FRAGILE STATES STRATEGY
from other assessment frameworks—e.g., those for conflict and democracyand governance—will be integratedin this process. The analysis will aidin identifying fragile states, sources offragility and recovery, and strategicand program priorities. It will alsoassist in evaluating the effectiveness ofresponse. USAID’s Conflict Mitigationand Management Office (CMM) 5will be integral to this initiative. Ineach instance, external sources ofinformation will guide this analysis.To improve monitoring, USAID/CMMis also developing a strategic trackingsystem for fragile states that will providefor the timely identification of states: 1)showing initial signs of vulnerability tofailure; 2) transitioning between vulnerableand crisis stages; and 3) exhibitingsusceptibility to violent conflict, foodinsecurity, and other particularly pernicioussymptoms of fragility. While thesystem will be grounded in the FragilityFramework, it will rely on multiplesources. USAID’s strategic trackingsystem will also provide results that canbe shared with other agencies withinthe U.S. Government and the broaderNGO and donor community. As such,it can serve as the foundation for moreeffective coordination of activities infragile states.Strategic Priorities inFragile StatesUSAID will pursue four interrelatedpriorities to strengthen fragile states:• Enhance stability, addressing thesources of stress and conflict in5 See .the political, economic, and socialspheres. In some cases, lack of politicalwill to foster greater effectivenessand legitimacy of government institutionsmay be driving fragility. Supportingreformers outside the governmentmay contribute to politicalinstability in the short term, but may,in the medium to long term, avoidviolent conflict and state failure.Support for economic activities thatlead to job creation, improved familyincomes, and better functioningmarkets can, in most cases, contributeto greater economic stability.• Improve security, providing an environmentthat enhances personalsafety, but also establishes the conditionsunder which serious outbreaksof generalized violence are averted.• Encourage reform related to the conditionsthat are driving fragility andthat will increase the likelihood oflong-term stability. While governanceis clearly a linchpin to recovery,reforms may well be required early onin multiple sectors, such as the criticalsocial and economic areas.• Develop the capacity of institutions thatare fundamental to lasting recoveryand transformational development.Building the capacity of institutionsthat serve key social and economicsectors—such as those providinghealthcare, education, and financialservices—will reduce stress andvulnerability, especially among poorerpopulations. Viable institutions willalso speed recovery from conflict.Given the uniqueness and inherentcomplexity of these environments, eachfragile state will require careful analysisof the specific situation to determine themost appropriate combination of strategiesfor averting crisis and mitigating theimpact of conflict and crisis.Strategic Programming inFragile StatesProgramming in fragile states willbe governed by the following fourprinciples:• Engage strategically. Not all fragilestates provide opportunities for constructiveUSAID engagement. Thisis particularly true of those regimesthat lack international legitimacy.Outsiders are far better equipped toaddress effectiveness deficits than topromote legitimacy. The decision toengage will be based upon a country’simportance to U.S. foreign policy,as well as the ability of assistance toaffect constructive change. Strongdonor coordination is particularlycritical in these situations. Multilateralor other bilateral agencies may bebetter positioned to advance stabilizationor governance reforms in theearly stages. Once USAID is engagedin a fragile state, assistance must bestrategic in terms of sequencing andprogrammatic mix.• Focus on sources of fragility. To theextent possible, programming infragile states should focus on theunderlying sources of fragility—thegoverning arrangements that lackeffectiveness and legitimacy—ratherthan the symptoms. It is importantto take into account issues such asethnic and religious tensions thatpolarize and divide societies. It isonly by addressing these dysfunc-FRAGILE STATES STRATEGY 5
Page 2 and 3: Cover photo: Gjakova, Kosovo, 2000.
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Page 8 and 9: a broad range of agencies and actor
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Page 22 and 23: moribund. The internal developmento
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Page 26 and 27: • Infrastructure deficits in many
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USAID Fragile States Strategy - The Air University

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