Barclays PowerPoint Template Guidelines - For External Use - invest'13

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Key Economic ForecastsReal GDP (%)Barclays Forecasts2010 2011 (E) 2012(F) 2013(F)US 2.4 1.8 2.3 2.0Global 5.1 3.8 3.1 3.5Emerging markets 8.1 6.5 5.1 5.6Inflation (CPI,%)US 1.6 3.2 2.2 2.3Global 2.7 3.9 3.0 3.2Emerging markets 5.2 6.3 4.8 5.3Official interest rates (end-year, %)US 0.0–0.25 0.0–0.25 0.0–0.25 0.0–0.25ECB 1.0 1.0 0.5 0.5Bank of England 0.5 0.5 0.25 0.25Source: Barclays18
Summary: Asset Allocation and selected Investment IdeasAsset Allocation Specific Investment Ideas Current ThemesDeveloped and Emerging Stocks – 48% of Risk Level 3 SAA portfolio – best strategic outlookDeveloped stocks offer most attractive long-term riskadjustedreturns in our nine-asset class Strategic AssetAllocation: use short-term volatility to add to positions• Blue Chip and Income themes• EuroStoxx dividend futures• US banks (for risk-aware)• European recovery• US and Europe preferred to Japan, UK• Cyclicals, tech and energy most favoured• Regional model portfoliosFixed Income (including cash) – 29% of portfolio – worst strategic outlookGovernment bond offer worst long-term returns: theyare expensive, and ratings matter less than cycle. Cashis preferred ‘safe haven’We prefer corporate bonds – especially HY, whereyields are attractive• Convertibles – for investors wary of full equityrisk• High Yield as an income play• Neutral on linker vs. conventional bonds• Short duration in government bonds and longduration in creditCommodities, ATS & Real Estate – 23% of portfolio – neutral, but important diversifiersNeutral. Commodity futures (5%) are expensive, butoffer a valuable geopolitical hedge• Long-dated Brent futures • Precious and industrial metals preferred,energy neutral, agriculturals least favouredForeign ExchangeEuro is least preferred big currency: a safety valve • Basket of Asian currencies as a CNY play• Nervous euro holders: hedge into USD andCAD• Reduce ‘home bias’: include a significantholding of foreign assets in investmentportfoliosThe value of investments can fall as well as rise and youmay get back less than you invested.19
Page 2 and 3: Outline• Introduction: questionin
Page 4 and 5: • Risk #1: the euro“One must im
Page 6 and 7: Euro interbank (LHS) & Spanish bond
Page 8 and 9: 8• Risk #2: the business cycle
Page 10 and 11: Selected manufacturing surveys2Stan
Page 12 and 13: US consumer spending: life after de
Page 14 and 15: Total US liabilities are large…De
Page 16 and 17: Oil market remains tight…US Dolla
Page 20 and 21: Global Treasuries: UnderweightNomin
Page 22 and 23: Dislocated valuations: equity and c
Page 24 and 25: Gold and silver: not always safe ha
Page 26: DisclaimerThis document has been is

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