A seasonal report on Maize - Karvy Commodities Broking

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Maize Balance Sheet: UKRAINETotal Supply (Million Tons)Total Demand (Million Tons)Years BeginningstocksImports Production Exports Consumption Endingstocks2011-12 1.121 0.05 22.838 14.0 8.8 1.2092012-13* 1.209 0.05 24.0 14.0 9.3 1.959Source: USDA estimates (* projected)The scenario in Ukraine has undergone a major change. Production is projected to increase by 5% butconsumption still further by 6%. Still Ukraine can manage without increasing its imports due to sufficientcarryover stocks from the last year which increased by 8%. It is expected to overtake Argentina as world’ssecond largest corn exporter due to the prevailing drought conditions in Argentina. Since China became anet importer from exporter a few years back, countries have turned to Ukraine for supply of Corn. Due torising demand and good profitability, usable area has increased sharply in recent years. Japan startedpurchasing from Europe since US offered at a much higher price and most of this European Corn wasshipped to Japan from Ukraine. Because of adequate supplies last year, the prices were pulled down after ithit a record high in June last year.Indian ScenarioMaize in India is grown both as akharif and Rabi crop. It is grown as aKharif crop in north India and insouth; it is grown during the monthsof April- October mostly as a wintercrop. Most of the crop is grown as akharif crop; it is sown during themonth of May and harvested in themonths of Sep-Oct. India’scontribution to the world productionis hardly 2% but it plays a major rolein trading with other countries. Areaunder Maize production, productivityand yield kept on increasing til 2010after which it started declining due toshifting of acreage towards moreprofitable crops. Andhra Pradesh isthe largest producer of MaizeMaize Producing States in Indiaothers35%Bihar9%Maharashtra9%Sources: USDA & KCTL ResearchAP21%Rajasthan10%Karnataka17%contributing around 21% of the total production followed by Karnataka (16.5%), Rajasthan (9.9%),Maharashtra (9%) and Bihar (8.9%). The major physical markets are Nizamabad, Davangere. Among theIndian states, Rajasthan has the largest area under maize cultivation.Consumption patternMost of the Maize in India is used in poultryfeed industry as it is growing at the rate of 12-15% annually. Apart from this, the produce alsogoes towards feeding the cattle, production ofstarch and other value added products like cornsyrup, corn oil, corn flakes, soups etc. Around52% of the demand is projected from poultryfeed and the remaining 48% is from others likehuman consumption and processing sector.Maize Consumption pattern in IndiaOthers27%Poultry48%Strach11%Sources: USDA & KCTL ResearchLivestock14%
Maize balance sheet: INDIAMaize production in India in the last five years has grown at a CAGR of 3.79% and consumption by 8.94%respectively. This demand supply gap is because of increasing domestic poultry demand.Years Total Supply (Million Tons) Total Demand (Million Tons)Beginning Imports Production Exports Consumption EndingstocksStocks2007-08 0.322 0.004 18.96 4.47 14.20 0.6132008-09 0.613 0.013 19.73 2.60 17.0 0.7482009-10 0.748 0.024 16.72 1.93 15.10 0.4532010-11 0.453 0.025 21.73 3.50 18.10 0.6082011-12 0.608 0.01 21.30 2.40 18.80 0.7182012-13* 0.718 0.01 22.0 2.20 20.0 0.528Source: USDA estimates (* projected)Indian maize production is expected to increase by 3% but consumption by 6% in 2012-13. This mismatchin supply demand is likely to keep maize prices on firm note during 2012-13. Exports are projected todecline by around 8% Y/Y due to excess domestic demand from different sectors like poultry, feed, andindustries. Because of poor sowing in major growing states like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, andMaharashtra due to insufficient and delayed rainfall, increasing demand from poultry sector, maize pricesare expected to rise in the coming year 2012-13.Apart from the cash incentives being provided by the major growing states, minimum support pricesannounced by the Government is encouraging and boosting the cultivation of maize to a large extent. Themain driving force for the demand is the increased requirement from the industrial sector.Kharif season sowing progressAs it is known to us that Indian Agriculture is a gamble of Monsoons, productivity and overall yield of anycrop depends upon the weather conditions. Because of the diminishing rainfall, sowing is getting hamperedin many parts of the country especially the major growing areas of Maize like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka,Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Monsoon has not been good so far. Until July 11 th , rainfall received is 22%below than Long Term Average (LPA) and the northern states experienced deficit of rainfall to a majorextent. Now let us see how far sowing has progressed in the major cultivating regions.Andhra Pradesh- Until now, 51% sowing has been completed so far. 2.55 lakh ha sowing has been finishedwhich is higher than last year’s sowing of 2.11 lakh ha but lower compared to the normal sown area of 2.87lakh ha.Karnataka- The average rainfall in north Karnataka is 111cm and deficient by 37 cm which has badlyaffected sowing. Hence, sowing is not started in north districts like Dharwad, Bagalkot, Gadag and Bijapur.It is expected to pick up once the monsoon resumes.Rajasthan – Sowing has been completed in East Rajasthan because of sufficient rainfall. Only 39 cm rainfallhas been received till date in western Rajasthan which has affected sowing.Bihar- Because of scanty rains and weak monsoon, sowing has not been started.Gujarat- 5% sowing is completed in southern region of Saurashtra. It continues at a good speed in Navsariand Anand regions. North Gujarat could not start sowing because of weather concerns.Maharashtra- Sowing could not be done in Sangli, Satara, Pune and Solapur because of inadequate rainfallin the middle region of Maharashtra.
Page 1 and 2: 26 July 2012A seasonal</str
Page 3 and 4: In the initial months of the year 2
Page 5: now, China has become aware of its
Page 9 and 10: nutritional factors which can affec
Page 11 and 12: Technical Analysis: A marginal paus

A seasonal report on Maize - Karvy Commodities Broking

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?