St Andrews and Panton Hill: Transport Needs Assessment - Public ...

St Andrews and Panton HillTRANSPORT NEEDS ASSESSMENTFinal Report

Executive SummaryIn early 2011, the Department of Transport (DOT) commenced a Transport Needs Assessment(TNA) in the communities of St Andrews, Smiths Gully, Cottles Bridge and Panton Hill afterrepresentation from the local community.The objective of the TNA was to identify the level of public transport need in the assessmentarea.This report examines the baseline conditions in the assessment area and presents the findingsfrom the community consultation undertaken. The assessment area for the TNA is shown inFigure 1.Figure 1: Assessment AreaCommunity feedback was incorporated through a local travel survey which was used to obtaintargeted and detailed analysis of residents’ transport preferences. Specifically, it establishedresidents’ interest in potentially utilising public transport to complete their daily journeys andgathered more detailed information about what time, where and why people travel.There are currently no Public Transport Victoria (PTV) contracted public transport servicesoperating in the assessment area. A free community bus, commissioned by Nillumbik ShireCouncil, provides transport to the assessment area on Saturdays on a trial basis. The serviceprovides 13 circular trips each Saturday from Hurstbridge Railway Station, stopping at the fourtowns in the assessment area.The findings of the baseline conditions analysis, which examines demographic data including therecently released 2011 Census data, where available, show that the assessment area issparsely populated. Zoning restrictions and green wedge land restrict further development.These limitations are expected to restrict future population growth.An assessment of existing social, economic and road conditions in the area was alsoundertaken. This assessment found that the area is characterised as having a low level ofPage 1

disadvantage, as measured by the Socio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) and a highinstance of car ownership.Many roads in the assessment area are not deemed suitable to operate bus services becausethey are too narrow, too steep or unsealed. This limits the potential catchment if a bus servicewas to be provided.It is concluded that the assessment area has unmet public transport needs but that the needs ofthis area could not be considered as a priority at this time relative to the needs of other areaswith greater populations, higher incidence of social disadvantage and more suitable roadnetworks.Page 2

Table of contentsExecutive Summary 11. Introduction 41.1 Objective 41.2 Structure of this Report 42. Existing Conditions 52.1 Regional Context 52.2 Population 62.3 Social Disadvantage 92.4 Education 122.5 Land Use 122.6 Employment and Travel to Work 142.7 Travel Destinations 152.8 Road Network 162.9 Transport Services 162.8 Summary of Findings 183. Community Feedback 193.1 Submissions to comment on scope 193.2 Electronic Mailing List 203.3 Webpage 203.4 Meeting with Nillumbik Shire Council 213.5 Local Travel Survey 213.6 Summary of findings 254. References 26AppendicesAppendix 1 – Advertisement: Invitation to comment on proposed assessment areaAppendix 2 – Transport Needs SurveyAppendix 3 – Advertisement/Poster: Transport Needs SurveyPage 3

1. IntroductionIn 2010, local residents and Nillumbik Shire Council (Council) approached the then Department ofTransport (DOT), with a request for public transport to link the assessment area to Hurstbridge toaccess local facilities and metropolitan train services.In early 2011, DOT commenced a Transport Needs Assessment (TNA) in the communities of StAndrews, Smiths Gully, Cottles Bridge and Panton Hill.On 2 April 2012, Public Transport Victoria (PTV) replaced the Public Transport Division of DOTand assumed responsibility for the completion of the TNA.This report presents the baseline conditions in the assessment area including available results ofthe 2011 Census, and the findings from community feedback, in order to establish the level ofpublic transport need in the assessment area.1.1 ObjectiveThe objective of the TNA is to identify the level of public transport need in the assessment area.1.2 Structure of this ReportThis report is structured as follows: Section 1 is the introduction to the report; Section 2 presents a summary of existing conditions, including community demographics ofthe assessment area; and Section 3 provides a summary of feedback resulting from community consultation undertakenthroughout the assessment.Page 4

2. Existing Conditions2.1 Regional ContextThe assessment area is located in the centre of Nillumbik Shire, which is located on the northeastfringe of metropolitan Melbourne, about 35 kilometres from the Central Business District.Figure 2, below, shows the regional context of the assessment area in relation to Melbourne. StAndrews, Panton Hill, Cottles Bridge and Smiths Gully are the four towns situated in theassessment area (the assessment area is contained within the red outline).Figure 2: Regional ContextPage 5

2.2 PopulationPopulation levels in the towns of St Andrews and Panton Hill experienced only minor changesbetween 1996 and 2006, presented in Table 1. Comparable figures are not currently availablefrom the 2011 Census from the Department of Planning and Community Development howeverbased on these figures and the projected populations presented in Table 2, it is expected that thepopulation of the towns in the assessment area will not change significantly in the future.Table 1: Population Changes from 1996 to 2006 (Department of Planning and CommunityDevelopment, 2006)Towns 1996 2001 2006St Andrews 371 394 381Panton Hill 444 425 518The population of Nillumbik Shire is projected to increase between 2011 and 2031 by an annualgrowth rate of 0.6 per cent, presented in Table 2. This is much lower than the rate for theVictorian population, which is projected to increase by an annual growth rate of 1.3 cent over thesame period of time.Table 2: Projected Population from 2016 to 2031 (ABS, 2011, and Department of Planningand Community Development, 2012)NillumbikShireActual 2011 2016 2021 2026 203160,342 65,939 68,124 70,281 72,238It is expected that most of the growth for Nillumbik Shire will occur in the designated urban areasof Eltham and Diamond Creek, not within the assessment area. Eltham and Diamond Creek havegreater capacity to accommodate population growth because they are not as hindered byplanning restrictions as the assessment area is.Figure 3 shows the distribution of population across different age groups for the assessment areain comparison to Victoria. The assessment area is populated by a noticeably lower proportion ofpeople over 65 years of age compared to the state distribution. There is also a larger proportionof the population that are school aged in comparison to the state distribution. This suggests thatthe assessment area is home to many young families.Page 6

Figure 3: Distribution of Population across Age Groups (ABS, 2011)A population density map of the assessment area shows that the population is sparselyconcentrated (Figure 4). Only the townships of St Andrews and Panton Hill have slightly higherpopulation densities.At 35 people per square kilometre, the assessment area has a population density that is lowwhen compared to outer suburbs and fringe areas in Melbourne. The population density for theGreater Melbourne statistical area is 400 people per square kilometre (ABS, 2011).Typically, public transport provision is most effective in areas with higher population densitiesthan those in the assessment area. This is a key factor for ensuring a public transport servicemaintains an adequate level of patronage relative to the costs.Page 7

Figure 4: Population Density (ABS, 2011)Page 8

2.3 Social DisadvantageSocio-Economic Indexes for Areas (SEIFA) are developed as a way of gauging the social andeconomic wellbeing of areas (ABS, 2006). The index used below is the Index of Relative Socio-Economic Disadvantage. It considers variables such as low incomes, households without a car,low education attainment and unemployment. The rankings for the SEIFA Disadvantage DecileScale are shown below:Figure 5: SEIFA Disadvantage Scale (ABS, 2006)A map of SEIFA Disadvantage for the assessment area is shown in Figure 6. The whole of theassessment area is classified between the rankings 5 and 10, which means it is at the leastdisadvantaged end of the scale. Furthermore, Nillumbik Shire is one of the least disadvantagedlocal government areas in Victoria (ABS, 2006). Disadvantaged communities generally havelower levels of car ownership and lower income levels, and therefore have a greater need forpublic transport to access services. The low level of disadvantage for the assessment area doesnot indicate a strong need for public transport.To support these findings, the percentage of households without a car is also mapped in Figure 7.There is high car ownership levels throughout the assessment area with the entire area recordedas having 0-5% of households without a car. This is common for towns on the metropolitan fringewhere private motor vehicles are the dominant mode of transport.In 2011, 3.5% of people in the labour force in Nillumbik Shire were unemployed, compared to anunemployment rate of 5.5% for the Greater Melbourne statistical area (ABS, 2011). The Nillumbikmedian weekly family income of $2070 is much higher than the Greater Melbourne median of$1576 (ABS, 2011). These two statistics provide further evidence of the low level of disadvantagein Nillumbik Shire.Page 9

Figure 6: SEIFA Disadvantage (ABS, 2006)Page 10

Figure 7: Percentage of Households with No Car (ABS, 2011)Page 11

2.4 EducationThere are two primary schools in the assessment area: St Andrews Primary School and PantonHill Primary School. No secondary schools or tertiary education providers are located in theassessment area. The nearest public secondary school is Diamond Valley College, DiamondCreek.Many students in this area attend schools located further afield. The policy and guidelines relatingto student travel eligibility on the free school bus network, including the policy for the retention ofa school bus route, is the responsibility of the Department of Education and Early ChildhoodDevelopment (DEECD).It has been DEECD policy for a number of years not to provide any new school bus services toschools that are further away than the closest public school. DEECD sets the criteria for, andassesses need for new dedicated school bus services.2.5 Land UseThe land use zoning of the assessment area is shown in Figure 8. The majority of the land in thearea is zoned as rural conservation or public conservation and resource zones. Panton Hill and StAndrews are the only towns in the area that have small pockets of township zones. These areareas that allow residential development and commercial, industrial and other uses in smalltowns.About 91 per cent of the total area of Nillumbik Shire is green wedge land (Nillumbik ShireCouncil, 2010. Nillumbik Green Wedge Management Plan). This limits urban development in theassessment area to the non-green wedge land in the small towns of St Andrews and Panton Hill.These factors restrict population growth in the area.Page 12

Figure 8: Land Use ZonesPage 13

2.6 Employment and Travel to WorkThe top five industries of employment for residents in the assessment area are shown in Table 3.Most of the main industries of employment require residents to travel outside of the assessmentarea.Table 4 shows how many employed people travelled to work on public transport and by car (either asdriver or as passenger).Table 3: Most Popular Industries of Employment (ABS, 2011)Rank St Andrews Panton Hill Cottles Bridge Smiths Gully1 School Education(5.5%)School Education(6%)Tertiary Education(6.8%)School Education(10.5%)2 Hospitals (3.7%) Building InstallationServices (4.7%)Building InstallationServices (5.2%)Tertiary Education(6.2%)3 Residential BuildingConstruction (3%)Residential BuildingConstruction (3.8%)School Education(5.2%)Other ConstructionServices (4.3%)4 Building InstallationServices (3%)Hospitals (3.4%)Supermarket &Grocery Stores(3.8%)Building InstallationServices (3.8%)5 Tertiary Education(3%)Cafes, Restaurantsand TakeawayFood Services (3%)Residential BuildingConstruction (3.3%)Legal & AccountingServices (3.3%)Table 4: Method of Travel to Work (ABS 2011)Method St Andrews Panton Hill Cottles Bridge Smiths GullyCar 67.4% 72.6% 68.6% 72.4%Public Transport 5.5% 5.8% 7% 3.8%Page 14

2.7 Travel DestinationsThe Victorian Integrated Transport Model (VITM) is a multi-modal, strategic transport demandmodel. The VITM is a four-step model which calculates trip generation and attraction (i.e. howmany trips are made?), trip distribution (where are the trips made?), mode split (what modes areused to travel?) and trip assignment (what routes are taken?). It models both highway and publictransport travel demand across the AM Peak, Inter-Peak, PM peak and Off-Peak periods. Thepublic transport assignment process in the VITM is sophisticated as it models multiple accessmodes to stops and stations, as well as allowing transfers between modes. Every timetabledservice in Melbourne is included in the model's public transport network, and changes to services/service levels, road network changes or changes to population and employment locations are allable to be tested.Figure 9 shows the output of the model. The model suggests that most current car trips are beingmade from the assessment area to neighbouring local government areas, with significantmovement towards the west whilst trips to Melbourne CBD are relatively few.Figure 9: Distribution of AM peak trips from St Andrews and Panton Hill Assessment AreaPage 15

2.8 Road NetworkThe main roads in the assessment area include:Kangaroo Ground-St Andrews Road - runs through the centre of the assessment area;Heidelberg-Kinglake Road - located at the northern end of the assessment area; andChurch Road - connects Cottles Bridge and Panton Hill.The major roads in the network are rural in nature and have limited curb or channel infrastructurewith mostly gravel or dirt verges. These roads typically have one lane for traffic in each direction.The topography of the main roads in the area is suitable for a bus and the speed limit variesbetween 50 kilometres and 100 kilometres per hour. These factors indicate that these main roadsare suitable for bus travel, as evidenced by their use by the Saturday community bus.Many of the other roads in the assessment area are not suitable for bus services because theyare too narrow, too steep or unsealed.The Disability Discrimination Act (1992) (DDA) requires that new bus stops are built inaccordance with Disability Standards for Accessible Public Transport (DSAPT) guidelines. Thetopography in Nillumbik would make this difficult to achieve in most of the assessment area.Other limitations include a lack of pedestrian paths or road crossing points. To ensure access forall passengers at a bus stop, established footpath infrastructure is needed. This does notcurrently exist in many parts of the assessment area.2.9 Transport ServicesPublic Transport ServicesThe assessment area currently has no PTV contracted public transport services. The nearestpublic transport service is the metropolitan train network at Hurstbridge Railway Station. It is thelast station on the Hurstbridge Line, which operates to the Melbourne Central Business District.Nillumbik Shire Council BusIn October 2010 a free community bus commissioned by Council commenced, providing transportto the assessment area on Saturdays. The service operates on a trial basis, provided by avolunteer workforce, and is periodically reviewed by Council.The service currently provides 13 circular trips from Hurstbridge Railway Station, stopping atPanton Hill, Smiths Gully, St Andrews and Cottles Bridge. The service takes 30 minutes for around trip, with the first service departing Hurstbridge at 9:25am, and the last departing at5:20pm. The service runs approximately every 40 minutes.Data provided from the St Andrews-Hurstbridge Bus Steering Committee indicates that patronageon the service varies greatly from week to week. Between October and December 2011, 13 roundtrips were completed per Saturday, carrying an average of 52 passengers per day, or fourpassengers per trip.One measure of how successful bus services are used by PTV is Boardings per VehicleKilometre (BVK). Each round trip on this community bus service is just less than 19 kilometres,which equates to a current BVK for this service of 0.2. This is significantly below the metropolitanweekday average of 1.1.Page 16

School Bus ServicesPTV has a comprehensive network of contracted school buses operating close to the assessmentarea provided by Panorama and Bryant Motors P/L (Diamond Valley Coaches). These school busservices can only be used by eligible school children, as determined by the Department ofEducation and Early Childhood Development (DEECD). It is DEECD policy that, to be eligible forfree school bus travel, a student must attend their nearest appropriate school and reside at least4.8 kilometres from that school.The vehicles used for these services have an exemption from the Disability Discrimination Act(DDA) legislation that applies to regular public transport bus services and therefore are not ultralowfloor, accessible vehicles. This means there may be limits on whether school buses can beused for regular route services outside of school hours. Consideration would also need to begiven to upgrading bus stop infrastructure and installing ticketing equipment.There are a number of privately operated school buses that travel within the assessment area.These are provided by schools solely to offer transport to and from that specific school for theirown pupils. These services are chartered privately, therefore not subsidised by government orsubject to PTV jurisdiction.Transport Connections ProgramAn independent study, conducted by Nillumbik Shire Council, advocated for a regular bus servicebetween St Andrews and Hurstbridge. A report on the study was submitted to DOT in mid-2010along with a service proposal for funding under the Transport Connections Program (TCP) for aregular fixed route peak hour public transport service operating Monday to Friday and services onSaturdays and into Saturday evenings.At the time, DOT found insufficient evidence to support the proposal and it did not meet theprogram objectives of TCP. It was found that the costs associated with trialling the service wereexcessive and inequitable when compared to other TCP trial services.Panorama Bus ServiceLocal bus operator, Hurstbridge Bus and Coach P/L (Panorama), which was aware of theCouncil's proposal, commenced preparation for the provision of a service from the assessmentarea to Hurstbridge Railway Station. The Panorama service would have provided 13 dailyservices Monday to Friday and five services each morning on Saturday. Panorama proposedoperating it without government subsidy.Before the Panorama service was implemented DOT informed Panorama that its proposedservice would be a 'regular passenger service' within the meaning of and in contravention of theBus Services Act 1995, if it were operated without the authority of a service contract with theDirector of Public Transport. DOT advised Panorama that a service contract would not be grantedat this time.Panorama then announced in local media that the service would commence on 4 October 2010.DOT reiterated its advice to Panorama that provision of the service would contravene legislation.Subsequently, Panorama decided not to proceed with the service on the day before it was due tocommence.Page 17

2.8 Summary of FindingsThe main findings from this report are: The assessment area has low population density, with the towns of St Andrews and PantonHill the most concentrated populations. However, this is still far below what is considered to beurbanised and would not be expected to sustain a regular public transport service. Zoning restrictions and green wedge land restrict development in the assessment area,constraining future population growth. The community as a whole has not been identified as being socially disadvantaged, asdetermined by the SEIFA disadvantage levels of the area. Many roads in the assessment area are unsuited to bus operations. This limits possible busroutes, potential patronage catchment and stop locations.Page 18

3. Community FeedbackEngaging with stakeholders and providing opportunities for community participation in thedevelopment of public transport services is an essential part of both developing and deliveringprojects, policies and programs. The Transport Integration Action 2010 (TIA) reflects theimportant role that community consultation plays in the development of public transport.Community feedback played an important role in helping the project team form a betterunderstanding of community travel needs and attitudes towards public transport in theassessment area.The public were invited to comment on the assessment area, subscribe to an electronic mailinglist for study updates and to complete a transport needs survey. The TNA and the variousopportunities to participate were advertised in local media and on the DOT website.3.1 Submissions to comment on scopeThe first stage of the TNA was to determine the scope of the assessment area. The assessmentteam invited comment from the community via email or post. This was also advertised in localmedia (Appendix 1) and on the DOT website.In total, 22 public submissions were received. Comments received regarding assessment areaincluded:15 submissions requested Hurstbridge railway station be included in the assessment area;2 submissions requested that the assessment area include Kangaroo Ground;2 submissions requested that Ninks Rd, St Andrews, be included in the assessment area;1 submission asked that the areas of Nutfield, Arthurs Creek, Strathewen, Kinglake &Kinglake Central be included; and2 submissions stated that they support the assessment area in its current form.Following a review of public submissions and based on an understanding of the physical layout ofthe proposed assessment area, as well as existing public transport services available in the widerregion, an assessment area was confirmed (see Figure 1).Page 19

Map illustrating the location and included communities in the assessment area;A link to complete the local travel survey online. This survey was to be completed byresidents within the assessment area; andA link to subscribe to updates.3.4 Meeting with Nillumbik Shire CouncilThe assessment team engaged with Nillumbik Shire Council in April 2011, early in the planning ofthe TNA. The purpose of this one-on-one meeting was to get advice on the proposed communityconsultation plan to get a local perspective on how best to reach the affected communities.Council agreed that a household survey would be an effective way to engage the community,particularly given the widely dispersed population and low-density housing. Council provided theresidential information of all households within the TNA area.3.5 Local Travel SurveyThe local travel survey was designed to provide quantitative data to understand how, where, whyand when people in the assessment area were making their daily journeys. The survey alsoattempted to gauge the level of community interest and preference to use public transport tomake their journeys, and to understand community attitudes towards public transport in the area.The survey gave members of the community the opportunity to get involved and communicatetheir travel needs and preferences to DOT.The survey was finalised and posted out to households in July 2011 (Appendix 2), closing August2011. Two copies of the survey were mailed to every household and the survey was madeavailable on the DOT website.The release of the survey was advertised in local media and posters (Appendix 3) were displayedaround the assessment area. These advertisements provided general information about thesurvey submission period and details about how to participate. Email notification was sent tosubscribers via the electronic mailing list.Survey results – GeneralMore than 2,800 copies of the survey were posted out to 1,407 households within theassessment area; each residence received two copies of the survey. In total, 570 postal surveyswere returned, a response rate of around 20 per cent. A further 159 surveys were completedusing the online option.Survey results revealed a high level of car ownership in the assessment area; 72 per cent ofrespondents currently own and use a car for travel purposes. This is consistent with the baselineconditions assessment.The largest number of responses came from St Andrews and Panton Hill (Figure 9) whichsupports census data showing a higher population.Page 21

Figure 9: Suburb of residence of respondents40%35%30%35%31%25%20%15%10%16%13%5%5%0%St Andrew s Panton Hill Cottles Bridge Smiths Gully OtherThe age profile of respondents varied; however, the 18-29 year old category received the fewestresponses (Figure 10).Figure 10: Age profile of respondents35%30%29%25%22%22%20%18%15%10%9%5%1% 0%0%Up to 17 yearsof age18 - 29 yearsof age30 - 44 yearsof age45 - 60 yearsof age60+ years ofagePrefer not tosayBlankPage 22

Survey Results - Weekday travelThis section of the survey was used to gauge community attitudes and interest in using publictransport to make their regular weekday journeys.Participants were asked to state whether or not they have a preference towards using publictransport, and if yes, when and why they might make these trips. Figure 11 demonstrates that 77per cent of respondents stated that they do regularly make weekday trips where they would preferto make their journeys using public transport, if it were available.Figure 11: Preference for weekday public transport useDo you regularly make weekday trips where youwould prefer to use public transport?23%NoYes77%Respondents identified a preference to use public transport on each weekday (evenlyspread across all days);Purpose of travel was spread evenly across most categories (work, education, medical,shopping/errands, social);Access to train services (Hurstbridge) and to Melbourne CBD were the most populardestinations for respondents;Preferred time of departure for almost 80% of respondents was before 9am; andPreferred time of return travel for over 70% of respondents was between 3pm-6pm.Survey Results - Weekend travelThe project team used this section of the survey to gauge community attitudes and interest inusing public transport on the weekend.Participants were asked to state whether or not they have a preference towards using publictransport on weekends, and if yes, when and why they might make these trips. Figure 12demonstrates that 72 per cent of respondents stated that they would prefer to make theirweekend journeys using public transport if it were available.Page 23

Figure 12: Preference for weekend public transport useDo you regularly make weekend trips where youwould prefer to be using public transport?28%NoYes72%The two most popular reasons for weekend travel were shopping/errands and socialoccasions;Just over 80% of respondents cited the railway station as their destination;Preferred time of departure for almost 60% of respondents was between 9am-12pm; andPreferred time of return travel for over 70% of respondents was between 3pm-6pm.The level of community interest towards using a weekend service is being demonstrated in thepatronage on the free Saturday St Andrews-Hurstbridge community bus. The project teamwanted to better understand the percentage of residents who were aware of this service. Figure13 shows that 62 per cent of respondents were aware of the service.Figure 13: Awareness of community busAre you aware of the free Saturday community bus?25%Blank / UnsureNoYes62%13%Page 24

3.6 Summary of findings• The survey results reveal a high level of car ownership in the assessment area. This isconsistent with the baseline conditions assessment.• Through the survey results, the community in the assessment area has expressed apreference to use public transport to complete their daily journeys, especially to accesstrain services at Hurstbridge Station on all days of the week.Page 25

4. ReferencesAustralian Bureau of Statistics, Census Data:http://abs.gov.au/websitedbs/censushome.nsf/home/data?opendocument#from-banner=LNDepartment of Planning and Community Development, 2006. Towns in Time 1981-2006:Department of Planning and Community Development, 2012. Victoria in Future 2012:http://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/publications-and-research/urban-and-regionalresearch/Regional-Victoria/towns-in-timehttp://www.dpcd.vic.gov.au/home/publications-and-research/urban-and-regional-research/census-2011/victoria-in-future-2012Nillumbik Shire Council, 2010. Nillumbik Green Wedge Management Plan:http://www.nillumbik.vic.gov.au/Building_and_Planning/Planning_for_our_future/Our_Green_WedgePage 26

Appendix 1Page 27

Appendix 2Page 28

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Appendix 3Page 30