The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) Projections for ... - AIDS Data Hub

The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM)Projections for HIV/AIDS in Thailand: 2005-2025In order to develop and cost policy scenarios after the revised baseline projections were prepared, the GOALS model [Stoveret al. 2003, Forsythe and Chepkwony 2004] was used in conjunction with the AEM. This allowed exploration of the impacts ofdifferent program alternatives and estimation of the resources needed to strengthen national prevention efforts. The GOALSmodel developed by Futures Institute takes inputs, including prevention unit costs, program coverage and population sizes,and uses them to estimate the expected outcomes of various interventions, programs and policies aiming to change behaviorsdriving the epidemic. This is done using an impact matrix drawn from the scientific literature that estimates the amount ofbehavior change that can be expected from a specific prevention approach. These behavioral changes are then fed directlyinto the AEM, through a specially designed AEM/GOALS linkage, to allow calculating the impacts of a program package. TheResource Needs Module of GOALS also calculates the total costs of the programs chosen, providing direct estimates of theoverall cost and human resources needed of the package.This report does not cover the GOALS data collection and analysis process or the Thai-specific outputs of the GOALS exercise.The interested reader can find further information on these issues in the document “Achieving the goal of reducing new HIVcases by half in 3 years in Thailand: Resource Needs Implications” [Martin and Sangrujee 2006].1.4 Dissemination of projection outputsThe resulting projections, which will be discussed in greater detail later in this report, were in reasonable agreement withobserved epidemiological trends in the country. They showed a slow decline of new infections and a shift of the dominantmodes of HIV transmission from sex work to sex between married couples and sex between MSM. The projections also showeda substantial and growing number of people needing ART, indicating the need for long-term resource commitment on thepart of the Royal Thai Government. The 2005-2025 projections and the key policy findings resulting from the projections werepresented to Thai policy makers at the MOPH on December 9, 2005.This report presents the key inputs used in the 2005 revision of the national projections along with the key findings and theirpolicy implications. It also outlines how the results of the projections have been used to guide strategic planning of the country’sresponse to the HIV epidemic. The baseline scenario presented here describes the likely course of the epidemic in Thailand ifprevention programs are not further strengthened and risk behaviors remain the same as they were in 2005.15