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The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM)Projections for HIV/AIDS in Thailand: 2005-2025ACKNOWLEDGEMENTSThis document presents the results of the updated Asian Epidemic Model (AEM) Projections for HIV/AIDS in Thailand 2005-2025 prepared by the Analysis and Advocacy Project (A 2 ) in Thailand in collaboration with the Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDSProjections, and with funding from the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). These updated projectionswere prepared to serve the preparation of the development of the Thailand 10 th National AIDS Plan.The A 2 Thailand and the Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections would like to thank the Ministry of Public Health (MOPH)of the Royal Thai Government for the support to the projection process and for using the projection results, in particular Dr.Thawat Suntharajarn, Director General of the Department of Disease Control. We would also like to acknowledge the WorldBank and the World Health Organization for their support on the development of the antiretroviral therapy component ofthe AEM.The updated Thailand HIV projections use the epidemiological and behavioral data collected by numerous researchers andpublic health officials in Thailand over the year. The data used include sentinel serosurveillance data and behavioral surveillancedata (Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, MOPH), conscript seroprevalence data (Royal Thai Army andArmed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences), sexually transmitted infection data (STIs Cluster, Bureau of AIDS, TB andSTIs, Department of Disease Control, MOPH), injecting drug user (IDU) data (Bangkok Metropolitan Administration and ThailandMOPH - U.S. CDC Collaboration), men who have sex with men (MSM) data (Thailand MOPH - U.S. CDC Collaboration and MSMgroups) and antiretroviral therapy data (Bureau of AIDS, TB and STI, Department of Disease Control, MOPH).The A 2 Thailand and the Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections would like to thank these and numerous others in thefields of population, epidemiology, public health, public health administration, statistics, social sciences and health economicsfrom the MOPH, Thai universities, local and international non-governmental organizations and affected communities for theircontribution to this effort and their continued dedication to developing a better understanding of – and response to – theThai HIV epidemic.The A 2 Thailand and the Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections are also especially grateful to the Data Analysis TechnicalWorking Group, its members and those who supported the preparation and conducted the review of inputs and assumptionsassociated with these HIV projections.The Thai Working Group on HIV/AIDS Projections (2005)Bureau of AIDS, TB and STIs, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public HealthDr. Sombat ThanprasertsukDr. Anupong ChitvarakornDr. Somyot KittimunkongMs. Kittaya YothaprasertMs. Vipa PhawanapornBureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public HealthDr. Kamnuan UngchusakArmed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences, Royal Thai ArmyMajor General Suebpong SangkharomyaThailand MOPH - U.S. CDC CollaborationDr. Achara Teeraratkul4
The Asian Epidemic Model (AEM)Projections for HIV/AIDS in Thailand: 2005-2025National Institute of Health, Department of Medical Sciences, Ministry of Public HealthDr. Pathom SawanpanyalertOffice of the National Economic and Social Development BoardMr. Jirapan KalaprawitMs. Waranya TeokulInstitute of Health Research, Chulalongkorn UniversityDr. Vichai PoshyachindaThe Thai Red Cross AIDS Research CentreDr. Praphan PhanuphakChulalongkorn UniversityProf. Dr. Kua WongboonsinA 2 Project in ThailandPolicy Research and Development Institute FoundationDr. Wiput PhoolcharoenEast-West Center, USADr. Tim BrownDr. Wiwat PeerapatanapokinFamily Health International, Asia/Pacific Regional OfficeDr. Jittinee KhienvichitDr. Jeremy RossDr. Somchai SriplienchanMs. Kulcharee TansubhapolMs. Ganrawi WinitdhamaA 2 Data Analysis Working Group and contributors1. Ms. Chutima Akaleephan, International Health Policy Program2. Dr. Kanittha Boonthamcharoen, Bureau of Planning and Strategy, Ministry of Public Health3. Dr. Frits van Griensven, Thailand MOPH - U.S. CDC Collaboration4. Dr. Payon Hanpadungkit, Bureau of AIDS, TB and STIs, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health5. Dr. Sophon Iamsirithawon, Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health6. Lt. Col. Dr. Kunakorn Kana, Armed Forces Research Institute of Medical Sciences7. Dr. Mana Kongpatanayothin, Anonymous Clinic, AIDS Research Center, Thai Red Cross Society8. Dr. Cheewanun Lertpiriyasuwat, Bureau of AIDS, TB and STIs, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health9. Ms. Viphada Maharatanaviroj, Bureau of AIDS, TB and STIs, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health10. Dr. Thanarak Plipat, Bureau of Epidemiology, Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health11. Col. Dr. Ram Rangsin, Phramongkutklao College of Medicine12. Dr. Orratai Rhucharoenpornpanich, AIDS Control Division, Department of Health, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration5
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