AGSTATS-Executive Su.. - Ministry Of Agriculture, Food and ...

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Preliminary Forecast of Food CropProduction for 2010/11&Preliminary Forecast of FoodSecurity for 2011/12presentation as Volume 2 and Volume 3 respectively banking on field intimacyinvolving MAFC experts and field teams at regional as well as at district levels.From the analysis, it has been found that 12,810,818 tonnes of food crops will beavailable from farm production comprised of 6,786,605 tonnes of cereals 8 and6,024,217 tonnes of non-cereals 9 (Table 1, Figure 1, Appendix 1 and Appendix 2)and will meet national food requirement amounting 11,499,414 tonnes of food by111 percent implying a 1,311,404 tonnes of surplus food (Table 1, Appendix 2).Figure 1: Tanzania Preliminary Food Production Forecast byCrop in 2010/11 (Proportions of 12,810,818 Tonnes)Cassava8%Potatoes13% Maize33%SSR = 111%Banana12%Pulses14%Wheat1%Rice11%Sorghum6%Millets2%situation. This analysis offers a good debate ground linking between SSR and the local level expectations of foodsecurity situation appropriate for data dissemination seminars.8 The cereal crops covered under CMEWS include maize, sorghum, millets, rice and wheat.9 The non-cereals include pulses, cassava, banana and potatoesPage 4
Preliminary Forecast of Food CropProduction for 2010/11&Preliminary Forecast of FoodSecurity for 2011/12Table 1: The 2010/11 Preliminary Food Crop Production versus 2011/12Requirement, Gap/Surplus Analysis and Self sufficiency Ratios at national levelCereals Production (Tonnes) 6,786,602Requirement (Tonnes) 7,200,341Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) -413,739SSR - Cereals (%) 94Non-cereals Production (Tonnes) 6,024,217Requirement (Tonnes) 4,299,073Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) 1,725,143SSR - Non-cereals (%) 140Total Food Production (Tonnes) 12,810,818Requirement (Tonnes) 11,499,414Gap/Surplus (Tonnes) 1,311,404SSR - Total (%) 111An analysis of Carryover stocks (COS) shows that, on the eve of new marketingyear a total of 787,908 tonnes food stock was carried over into 2011/12 marketingyear of which 189,966 tonnes was held in NFRA premises while 203,988 tonneswas held by private stockists and 393,954 tonnes was estimated as farm retention(Figure 2).Page 5
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