Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies - Horticulture - Cornell ...

Mao goes to Bondi:Viticulture & Climate Change in Asia-PacificVinay PagayDreer Award Recipient, 2008-09

www.indiana.edu/~overseas/pics/shanghai1.jpg

‘Nine-dragon’ Chinese Juniper(Juniperus chinensis)

Northwest Agriculture & Forestry UniversityCollege of Enology

Northwest A&F University Teaching Vineyard

Northwest A&F University Teaching Vineyard

‘He’ wine vessel7 th -6 th c. B.C.The Shanghai Museum

Total acreage: 419,000 haTotal production:6.3 million tonsSources: China Agriculture Yearbook 2007, OIV 2007

PRODUCTION(‏hL 000‘)CONSUMPTION(‏hL 000‘)Source: OIV 2005

Traditional VarietiesLong-yan (‘Dragon’s Eye’)Niu-nai (‘Cow’s Nipple’)International Varieties• Muscat Hamburg• Cabernet SauvignonLongyanWuhebei (‘Kishmish’, ThompsonSeedless)Hong-jixin (‘Red Cock’s Heart’)Bai-jixin (‘White Cock’s Heart’)BeichuanYantai 73 (Yan 73)• Chardonnay• Carmenere (‘Cabernet Gernischt’)• Riesling (Italian, White)• Rkatsiteli• Syrah• MerlotYan 73Niunai

‘Shan Putao’ (Vitis amurensis)‘Sì Putao’ (Vitis davidii)

• Provinces• Heilongjiang• Jilin• Liaoning• Climatic Conditions• Cold winters• Dry summers

‘Shan putao’ vineyard in Jilin province

Ice-wine production in Liaoning province

• Provinces/Regions• Beijing• Shandong• Tianjin• Hebei• Henan• Shanxi• Climatic Conditions• Warm, humid• Much rainfall

Young Cabernet Sauvignon vineyard, Shanxi province

Cover cropping in a young vineyard, Shanxi province

Yellow River ( 黃 河 ), Houkou Falls, Shanxi province

Private reservoir for irrigation water near Taiyuan, Shanxi province

Chateau Changyu Castel, Yantai

COFCO Chateau Junding, Penglai

Grapevine Nursery at Chateau Junding, Penglai

Fan training on an arborDragon training on an arbor

Young vineyardGansu ProvinceSuntime vineyardChangji, Xinjiang Province

Grape Valley, TurfanXinjiang province

Raisin Production, TurfanXinjiang province

Ditch or Furrow Irrigation

‘Kareji’ sub-surface irrigationTurfan, Xinjiang province

Δ Temperature (°C)1.51.00.50.0195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004-0.5-1.0-1.5Mean growing season temperature anomaly from seven major agriculturalcenters in China (1952-2004)

Δ Precipitation (mm)300250200150100500-50195219541956195819601962196419661968197019721974197619781980198219841986198819901992199419961998200020022004-100-150-200-250Mean growing season precipitation anomaly from seven major agriculturalcenters in China (1952-2004)

General consensusclimate is changing!Tian Shan Mountains, Xinjiang

Thiksay Gompa(Monastary)

Region with high vulnerability to climate changeAgriculture contributes ~18% of GDP65% of population depends on agriculture (economically)60% of agricultural area is climate-dependentNorthern India at greater risk than Central or Southern IndiaWinter temperatures rising faster than summer temperaturesSnow days and winter precipitation decreasingMigration of crops is already occurring; temperate belt movingnorthward and to higher altitudesFrequency of droughts have been variable: high in the 70’s andearly 80’s, lower in the 90’s and now

The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), New DelhiEnergy policy analysisClean Development Mechanism (CDM) implementationImpacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation assessmentsGHG monitoring and mitigation analysisInternational Rice Research Institute (IRRI) &Indian Center for Agricultural Research (ICAR), New DelhiAssessment of climate change in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and coastal areasEffects on agricultural productivity particularly wheat and riceGovernment of IndiaShort-term: Disaster management agencies (NIDM), crop insurance schemes,high quality weather forecastingLong term: Environmental impact of new development, green buildings

N. D. WinesSula Vineyards

High cordon trained Chenin blanc grapevines

Cultural and other Vineyard PracticesFertilisationSpraysPruningHarvestPruningJUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC JAN FEB MAR APR MAYMonsoonsBudbreakFloweringVeraison(Whites)Veraison(Reds)CHORenewalGrowing-Fruiting SeasonPhenology & Climate

1) Adequate cane maturation (lignification)• Vine remains in conditional dormancy2) CHO reserves build-up• Lacking sufficient dormant period• Results in poor shoot growth, fruitset,declining productivity

PART III

Australia’s National Floral Emblemhttp://www.moggillss.eq.edu.au/QSWC/YoungEinsteins/Golden-Wattle.jpgGolden Wattle (Acacia pycnantha)

AdelaideYurabilla Trail, Adelaide HillsSouth AustraliaAdelaide and the Torrens RiverPort Noarlunga

Adelaide, South Australia• Surrounding wine regions:– Adelaide Hills– Barossa Valley– McLaren Vale– Clare Valley– LanghorneCreek– CoonawarraAdelaide Hillswineaustralia.com

Waite Agriculture Research InstituteGlen Osmond (Adelaide), SA

Division of Wine and HorticultureWaite CampusPlant Research CenterWine Innovation ClusterBuilding

Major Wine Regions of AustraliaMap Source: Australian Wine Bureau

Australia – Agro-climatic RegionsSource: http://mapsof.net

Climatic Trends - TemperatureConsiderable variation in mean growing seasontemperatures across main agricultural regions

Number of DaysTemperature Extremes - Barossa Valley403530252015>35C>40C10502001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Temperature data for Nuriootpa, SA courtesy Bureau of Meteorology, Australia

Temperature ExtremesAdelaide Heatwave 2009• 28 th January: second warmest day in recordedhistory, hottest day in 70 years:45.6C• Record set for warmest night (minimum):33.9C• Consecutive days above 35C:15

Temperature ExtremesAdelaide Heatwave 2009Cabernet Sauvignon vinesIrrigated @ 1 ML/ha

Temperature ExtremesEn route to Mount Lofty, Adelaide HillsFebruary 17, 2009 Max. Temp: 34.2CHot, thirsty marsupial finds water!

Temperature ExtremesJacob’s Creek, Barossa ValleyJanuary 31, 2009 Max. Temp: 41C

Climatic Predictions for Major ViticulturalRegions for 2100• Temperature increase of ~2.6C (mostly summer)• ~4% reduction in precipitation (mostly winter)• Little change in inter-annual variabilityDec-Jan-FebTemperature Response (C)1980-1999 to 2080-2099Source: IPCC AR4 WG1 Report, 2007

Agricultural water use in AustraliaRice5%Fruit5%Vegetables4%Other11%Dairy Farming19%Pastures16%Grapes6%Grains9%Sugar10%Cotton15%Agricultural water use: 14,000 GL(2004-2005)Source: National Water CommissionAustralian Governmentwww.nwc.gov.au

Irrigation Water Loss is a Major IssueAccording to the National Water Security Plan (2007):• 10-30% water lost beforereaching farm gate• 20% lost in distribution channels• 60% water applied using highvolumechannels or inefficientsystems• 10-15% water lost through overwatering

Water access entitlements and a pot of beer285 mL beer:• QLD, TAS, VIC:‘Pot’• NSW, ACT, WA:‘Middy’• SA: ‘Schooner’Water access entitlement:• VIC: ‘Water share’• NSW: ‘Water access license’• QLD: ‘Water allocation’Dictionary of Terms for Water AccessEntitlements and Transactions(National Water Commission)

Water Security, Allocations, Trading– High vs. general or low security water– Current Murray allocations to SA:• 13% of original allocation (as of Nov/2008)• 2.5 ML/ha (Riverland), 1.6 ML/ha (Langhorne Creek)– Water trading:Water balance = Allocation minus Crop requirement(allocation depends on availability)+ve balance: potential water seller-ve balance: potential water buyer• Prices range from AU$200 - AU$1000/MLMurray photo :National Geographic Magazine(April 2009)

Sources of irrigation water• Rivers– Strict allocations• Bores/Aquifers– Restricted• Dams (Reservoir)– Restricted• Rainfall– Highly variable– UnpredictableBore water pumping stationGemtree Vineyards, McLaren Vale, SA

Climate change: Implications forirrigated agriculture/viticulture• What we already know:– Advanced and rapid phenological progression• Ripening and harvest will be in warmer conditions– Cultivars already at their limits will suffer• Cooler areas may benefit– Well-watered vines can recover from hightemperature events without much leaf loss• Need to investigate:– Effects of timing and duration of heat stress andelevated CO 2 on vine physiology and cropdevelopment

Elevated Temperature StudyObjectives• Investigate reproductive performance of Shiraz grapevines subjected toelevated temperatures in a field-setting– Both timing and intensity of heat stress were assessed– Physiological responses concurrently evaluated by SARDI• Parameters assessed included:– Flowering and fruitset– Yield components– Pollen viability, germination, and pollen tubegrowth– Ovary development, ovule cell viability– Berry and seed development

Elevated Temperature StudySARDI - Nuriootpa Research CenterUnder-vine Tents~3C above ambientWhole-vine Chambers~10C above ambient

Climate Change Adaptation:• GovernmentWhat is Australia doing?– Ratified Kyoto Protocol (1997)– Emissions Trading Scheme (2010)• Climate Forecasting on a Regional Scale– CSIRO: main research body looking at climatechange, modeling, and impacts on agriculture– Improved prediction certainty– Frequency and intensity of extreme climate events

Climate Change Adaptation:Irrigation Water & The Murray• Improved monitoring of water flows (MDBA)• Salinity management and salt interception• ‘Living Murray’ program (2003)

Murray Darling Basin Authority Water trading Water use Water quality Groundwater Water sharing Wetlands Irrigation Subsurface waterwww.mdba.gov.au/water

Water Harvesting and StorageInflatable Dam, Penfolds, Clare Valley

Irrigation Research in the RiverlandOxford Landing, SA10% irrigation 100% irrigationGrapevine canopy development affected by water-stress

Irrigation Research in the RiverlandOxford Landing, SA10% irrigation 100% irrigationWater-stressed vines have uneven fruitset

Soil Moisture Measurement• Irrigation scheduling based on soilmoisture levelsSentek’s EnviroSCANGypsum Blockat OxfordLanding

Climate Change: Adaptation StrategiesVariety and Rootstock SelectionGrenache (left row) & Tempranillo (right row) vines show good drought tolerance(near-isohydric, ‘pessimists’)

Climate Change: Adaptation StrategiesRootstock Trial at SARDI, NuriootpaShiraz grapevines on Schwarzmannrootstock, non-irrigated

Climate Change: Adaptation StrategiesA clean-cultivated vineyard, McLaren Vale, SA

Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies• Increased use of organic techniques, cover crops,mulches to improve soil moisture retentionSaltbush (Genus: Atriplex)SARDI-Nuriootpa (Barossa), SAWithin-row grass cover crop and mowerGemtree Vineyards, McLaren Vale, SA

Climate Change: Adaptation StrategiesPrecision Irrigation Management– Delineate strategic management zones– Optimize water & fertilizer distribution anduniformity– Accurate measurement ofweather, soil moisture,fertility– Regulated deficit irrigationColdstream Hills (Winery), Yarra Valley, VIC

Climate Change: Adaptation Strategies• Canopy management and trellis design– Increase leaf area and shading e.g. CA sprawl• Artificial shading, nets• Evaporative cooling• Planting new varieties and rootstocks, includingGM-rootstocks for improved drought & salinitytolerance• Increased use of technology:– Monitoring water application and vine water status– Yield sensors and maps– Plant Cell Density mapping

AcknowledgementsWilliam Frederick Dreer & The Award CommitteeCornell University, Department of HorticultureDrs. Li Hua and Wang HuaNorthwest A&F University, Yangling, ChinaProfessor Li JiangXinjiang Agricultural University, Urumqi, China

Acknowledgements• TERI, New Delhi: Dr. Sangeet Srivastava• IRRI, New Delhi: Drs. Himanshu Pathak & Virender Kumar• Sula Vineyards, Nashik, India:Dr. Niraj Agarwal & Steve Brunato• University of Adelaide: Dr. Cassandra Collins• AWRI, U. Adelaide: Dr. Peter Dry• Growers (survey responses)• Yanzi Zhang – Cornell Horticulture• Translators (for Chinese surveys):• Xiaohua Yang - Cornell Horticulture• Amy Lee, Daniel Li, Chang Lee - Yangling, China• Ruyi Li - Adelaide, AustraliaDr. Cassandra CollinsUniversity of Adelaide

The Viticulture Team at WaiteL to R: Cassandra Collins, Chris Penfold, Luke Johnston, Vinay Pagay, Catherine Cox, Tintu B.

Thank you!Tian Shì (‘Heaven Lake’), Xinjiang