4_BVN Prasad.pdf - World Petroleum Council

Capturing Opportunity 2012In the face of a multi-speed recoveryB.V.N. PrasadVice President – Regional Sales Operations &Business Consulting, Asia PacificApril 13, 2012© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved

Challenges RemainMost Important Trends for 2012ClimateChangeImpact onEnvironmentUncertainEconomicRecoveryGlobal PowerShiftsSustainableEconomyEmergingEconomiesInstabilityof FinancialSystemsNationalism &ProtectionismPopulationGrowthRise ofChinaInequalityDecreasinghealth ofpublicfinancesGlobalizationAgeingShortage ofresourcesReregulationofthe EconomyAdapted from World Economic Forum: Outlook on the Global Agenda 2011© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 2

Uneven Economic RecoverySovereign Debt is stilla challenge in‘DevelopedEconomies’Corporate Profitscontinue to rise – butjobs are still aproblemEmerging Regionscontinue to grow –particularly in Asia© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 3

Uncertain Economic RecoveryProcess IndustriesCustomer demand &Industry Dynamicsalso play a role inchangeDemand is growing inChina and non-OECDand the Middle East© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 4

Global Power ShiftAsiasecuresmostgrowthpotential -globallyInfluence ismoving fromDeveloped toEmergingEconomies© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 5

Innovation – a Key to the FutureOperationalEfficienciesprovide acompetitiveadvantageInnovation leadsto significant newrevenueopportunities© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 6

Resources: TalentChemicals, Oil & Gas andEngineering & Constructionrepresent the biggest jobgrowth opportunityTechnology providers mustencapsulate knowledge toachieve the talentrequirements© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 7

Top Refining Trends Worldwide• China, India and ME will lead petroleum demand growth• Unless locally subsidized, refining margins will remain weak• Consolidation of refining assets will continued in OECD• Excess refining capacity in India and ME, lasting for the next 3-5years, targeted for export markets in OECD regions• Environmental regulations will drive operating costs higher• High crude feedstock prices drive need for cash preservation• Refiners in non-OECD countries not driven by economics but by needto satisfy local and regional demands• NOCs seeking to purchase assets in OECD regions• IOCs continue to shed refining and marketing assets to focus onUpstream operations• Marginal assets being converted to terminal operationsAdapted from IHS Cera, NPRA data© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 8

Capturing OpportunityRiding the Global Trends…© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 9

Capturing OpportunityThree ways AspenTech is helpingOptimizeInnovateMega ProjectsProcess DevelopmentProduct DevelopmentOperationalExcellenceEnergy EfficiencyCollaborateFeedstock SelectionDemand DrivenSupply Chains© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 10

InnovationMega project economics planning reduced by over 75%Refinery Planning with an FCC Model delivers $7MUSDper year benefitsRethinking Off-shore Operations© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 11

Mega Projects and Global Project ExecutionEstimating across jointventure partners for megaprojects:• Managed estimate across threemajor partners• Estimated largest-ever project inone model• Reduced estimating time frommonths to weeks• Able to evaluate and enablebusiness decisions on majorexecution alternativesEstimatingMega Projects© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 12

Refinery Planning with Integrated FCC ModelIdentify changes in processoperations that yield greatesteconomic payback with minimalinvestment:• Improved LP planning model for moreaccurate yield and property predictions• Quantified alternative feed blends forbetter unit profitability• Improved equilibrium catalyst activityfor better product distribution• Payback of ~$2 MUSD/year withoutcapital investment• Identified additional $5MUSD/yearthrough similar applications forhydrocrackers and reformerRefinery Planningwith Integrated FCCModelYangzi Refinery Capacity9.0 million tons/year180,000 barrels/day (BPD)© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 13

OptimizeEnterprise wide energy optimization of gas plantssaves $60 - $80 MUSDRapid prototyping promotes widespread adoption of APCAward winning OpEx in Olefins, saving over $5MUSDper yearAdvanced Scheduling Increases Throughput by 20%and Reduces Batch Cycle Time by 30%Distillation Column Performance ImprovementsDelivers $12.5M p.a.© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 14

Integrated PlanningImproved decision making,optimized business and operatingplans:• Increased throughput 3-8%• Reduced planning time 50-70%• Reduced inventory 15-35%• Energy savings 3-5%• Reduced plan vs. actual deviation• Now: 2-5%• Before: 15-25%Technology andwork processes© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 15

CollaborateOptimal enterprise-wide material balance for marginmaximizationOptimal Design of LNG Receiving Terminal for RapidAdaptationMore Refinery Transitions, FasterFollow the sun Engineering ExcellenceAdvanced Planning Optimizes Crude Slate Selection© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 16

Demand Driven Supply ChainEnabling integrated inventorymanagement and operationsscheduling for physicaloperation:• Commercial margin improvementdue to better visibility into physicaloperations• Reduction in demurrage charges• Working capital reduction due toimproved actualization process• 40% more usage of legacy systems• Estimated savings over $6MMper yearBetter visibilityinto PhysicalOperations© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 17

Enable Global Project TeamsAdopted an integrated FEEDworkflow: Incorporatessimulation, equipment design,calculations, process andmechanical FEED disciplines,and detailed design• FEED workflow used on threecontinents• Standardized workflow betweenHouston, London, China andAustralia• Ability to perform 3-fold volumeof FEED work with same resourcelevels• Greater project win ratesGlobal FEEDIntegration© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 18

Capturing OpportunityOptimizeInnovateDeveloping newproducts, processesor business modelsFocusing on doingwhat you do better,faster anddifferentiatedCollaborateResponding faster toglobal and domesticmarket dynamics© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 19

“In the near term it is all about raisingour game on the performance side…Sharper DeliveryProfitabilityCompetitiveness…”Peter VosserCEO Royal Dutch Shell PLC© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 20

Focused on the Process IndustriesEnergyChemicalsEngineering &ConstructionPharmaceuticals© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 21

Thank you© 2011 Aspen Technology, Inc. All rights reserved | 23