Identifying International Networks: Latent Spaces and Imputation ...

Table 1: Reuters Chronology of 1990 Iraq-Kuwait Crisis, adapted from Schrodt(http://www.ku.edu/ keds/intro.html), with permission. The Iraqi denunciation of Kuwation July 23, 1990 is a typical conflict event.Date Headline Lead SentenceJuly 17, 1990RESURGENT IRAQ SENDS SHOCKWAVES THROUGH GULF ARABSTATESJuly 23, 1990 IRAQ STEPS UP GULF CRISISWITH ATTACK ON KUWAITI MIN-ISTERJuly 24, 1990July 24, 1990July 25, 1990IRAQ WANTS GULF ARAB AIDDONORS TO WRITE OFF WARCREDITSIRAQ, TROOPS MASSED IN GULF,DEMANDS $25 OPEC OIL PRICEIRAQ TELLS EGYPT IT WILL NOTATTACK KUWAITJuly 27, 1990 IRAQ WARNS IT WON’T BACKDOWN IN TALKS WITH KUWAITJuly 31, 1990IRAQ INCREASES TROOP LEVELSON KUWAIT BORDERAugust 1, 1990 CRISIS TALKS IN JEDDAH BE-TWEEN IRAQ AND KUWAIT COL-LAPSEAugust 2, 1990 IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT, OILPRICES SOAR AS WAR HITSPERSIAN GULFIraq President Saddam Husseinlaunched an attack on Kuwait and theUnited Arab Emirates (UAE) Tuesday,charging they had conspired withthe United States to depress world oilprices through overproduction.Iraqi newspapers denounced Kuwait’sforeign minister as a U.S. agent Monday,pouring oil on the flames of a PersianGulf crisis Arab leaders are strugglingto stifle with a flurry of diplomacy.(I.e., Iraq Denounces Kuwait.)Debt-burdened Iraq’s conflict withKuwait is partly aimed at persuadingGulf Arab creditors to write off billionsof dollars lent during the war withIran, Gulf-based bankers and diplomatssaid.Iraq’s oil minister hit the OPEC cartelTuesday with a demand that it mustchoke supplies until petroleum pricessoar to $25 a barrel.Iraq has given Egypt assurances thatit would not attack Kuwait in theircurrent dispute over oil and territory,Arab diplomats said Wednesday.Iraq made clear Friday it would takean uncompromising stand at conciliationtalks with Kuwait, saying its PersianGulf neighbor must respond toBaghdad’s “legitimate rights” and repairthe economic damage it caused.Iraq has concentrated nearly 100,000troops close to the Kuwaiti border,more than triple the number reporteda week ago, the Washington Post saidin its Tuesday editions.Talks on defusing an explosive crisisin the Gulf collapsed Wednesdaywhen Kuwait refused to give in to Iraqidemands for money and territory, aKuwaiti official said.Iraq invaded Kuwait, ousted its leadersand set up a pro-Baghdad governmentThursday in a lightning pre-dawnstrike that sent oil prices soaring andworld leaders scrambling to douse theflames of war in the strategic PersianGulf.4