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Czech Focus 2/2005 - AFI

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BUSINESSCLIMATE14First grade report cardThe <strong>Czech</strong> Republic’s first year in the European UnionOur first year’s experience of EU membership was altogether positiveand soberly hopeful. There were no fundamental shocks in the economythat could be directly or indirectly related to EU accession. Before EUaccession some “arguments” appeared, most often from the ranks ofEU sceptics, showing how prices would rise without an adequate rise inincome, how external competition would “crush” our weak and inexperiencedmanufacturers and retailers, etc. It can be completely responsiblystated that hardly any of this has come true. No direct or induced shocksdue to membership have occurred; to be sure the opposite is the case.There was no destructive impact on prices, except perhaps a cosmetic increasein prices due to a one-time need for tax harmonization (VAT, excise tax). Withcustoms duty it’s a different story. The permanent cancellation of duty and tradebarriers within the EU and the transition to a common customs tariff made manycommodities cheaper; but the overall impact on price levels has been negligible.The <strong>Czech</strong> Republic has been ranked among the low inflation European economiesfor a long time.On the whole it can be said that EU accession rather met positive expectations,one of which was even that our economy has become a considerably growingmember and has shown a very positive mid-term outlook. It’s a question as tohow much EU accession influenced such respectable economic growth (4%).Nonetheless, a positive mid-term outlook can also be the reason for favourableevaluation and the impact of accession on this result is evident.The following factors are characteristic for the first year inthe Union:• an acceleration of economic growth• keeping inflation of the values that fulfil the Convergence criteriaunder control• a slight reduction in unemployment• an improvement in the current account due to the increasedannual inflow of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)The most positively influenced indicator is without a doubt foreign trade. The dynamicsof growth of exports and imports is demonstrably enormous and unequivocallyconfirms the marked renewal of trade and business transactions involving<strong>Czech</strong> entities within an enlarged EU.The strengthening of foreign trade transactions was furthermore accompanied bya corresponding rise in output of international goods and passenger traffic. Theeffect of expansion is clear in the continuing influx of foreign direct investment.The relocation of companies and their production and development activitiesfrom traditional member countries to the countries of new members, includingthe <strong>Czech</strong> Republic, is now easier since as of May 1, 2004 there are much simpleradministrative procedures. The change in foreign investors’ behaviour and view of<strong>Czech</strong> reality has not been very noticeable as of yet; it will likely make itself knownafter a longer period. The fact that we are EU members nonetheless improvesour country’s references and is anotherpositive argument for our improvingreputation.Our first year’s membership confirmedthat EU funds are no chimera, but a fact.Some 5,000 project applicants now havethe support of these funds as a certainty.In summary over 30 billion crowns havefound their recipients despite the largeexcess of enquiries of some operationalprogrammes beyond their possibilitieswhile others have not yet made useof their potential. From the date ofaccession to the end of this year onecan realistically expect approximately 50billion crowns.One year is still too short a period tomeet the expectations in structuralreforms or to reduce unemployment. The new business opportunities will likelylead to the creation of new jobs; however, this effect should be more visible after alonger period. From this standpoint it seems at first sight “as if nothing happened”,but the labour market’s demands have increased and structural reforms under thepressure of EU policy will also occur. If we highlight and tally up it’s clear that theoverall tone and impression is definitely positive.One key challenge is choosing the path to the euro. It’s certainly still true thata common government and central banking plan counts on the transition to acommon European currency in the period 2009 – 2010, but with respect to thedevelopment of inflation, interest rates and exchange rate stability we needn’t inany way hesitate much in joining the eurozone. The question is, however, meetingConvergence criteria, especially in the area of public finance (i.e. ability to reducethe deficit and considerably decelerate public debt). At present the fulfilment ofthe Convergence criteria is viewed as quite satisfactory. Last year, according tothe <strong>Czech</strong> Statistical Bureau’s macroeconomic development analysis, the <strong>Czech</strong>Republic was the only new EU member state from Central Europe to fulfil threeof the four Maastricht conditions for the implementation of the euro.It can be presumed that the <strong>Czech</strong> Republic’s accession to the EU definitelyhelped. It opened up new business opportunities; students are pursuing educationin other countries in large numbers; EU funds have become a reality. We havebecome members of a club in which the rules applied help us provided we abideby them. Some other effects will nonetheless become apparent in several years ordecades, and so one year is too short for a thorough evaluation.Sources:• www.euractiv.cz, 30.5.<strong>2005</strong>• www.europa.eu.int • <strong>Czech</strong> Ministry of FinanceMain Macroeconomic Indicators2001 2002 2003 2004 <strong>2005</strong> 2006Forecast ForecastGross domestic product increase in %. const.pr. 2.6 1.5 3.7 4.0 4.0 4.1Consumption of households increase in %. const.pr. 2.6 2.8 4.9 2.5 3.5 3.5Consumption of government increase in %. const.pr. 3.8 4.5 4.2 -3.2 1.0 -1.4Gross fixed capital formation increase in %. const.pr. 5.4 3.4 4.8 9.1 7.1 7.1GDP deflator increase in % 4.9 2.8 1.9 3.7 2.7 3.1Average inflation rate % 4.7 1.8 0.1 2.8 1.8 2.2Employment (LFS) increase in % 0.4 0.8 -0.7 -0.6 0.2 0.2Reg. unemployment rate (MoL) average in % 8.5 9.2 9.9 10.2 10.0 9.7Wage bill increase in %. curr.pr. 6.9 8.5 5.6 5.0 6.3 6.3Current account / GDP % -5.4 -5.6 -6.3 -5.2 -5.0 -3.9Source: Macroeconomic Forecast, <strong>Czech</strong> Ministry of Finance (MoF), April <strong>2005</strong>

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