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Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments for Poverty Reduction7. Unit of analysis. Even where there is agreement on state effectiveness asthe central question, problems of definition also arise from taking the stateas the unit of analysis. States such as Uganda, Colombia, and Pakistanhave fairly strong government capacity and control over most of theterritory, and yet do not have effective control over particular geographicalregions. While the government in Kampala is effective in most Ugandanterritory, and is indeed regarded as one of the ‘good performers’ by mostdevelopment agencies, it has been unable to exert its authority in northernUganda for more than a decade. Thus some areas of state weaknessoperate at the sub-state level. Similarly, the political economy of conflictsin West Africa (Liberia, Sierra Leone, Guinea, and Ivory Coast) in recentyears has involved the flow of combatants, money, and arms acrossborders in a systematic way. No attempt to understand or address stateweakness in the region can ignore the cross-border dimensions. Since thegeographical scope of state weakness is not always coterminous withnational borders, it makes sense to consider the regional or supra-stateaspects of the conflict. Similar arguments have been advanced in respectof the South Caucasus and African Horn and African Great Lakes regions.8. Toward a development-oriented definition. Given the wide range of policyconcerns, diverse state experience, and multiple definitions that arecurrently in use, the purpose of this paper is to set out an approach tostate fragility that has a high degree of analytical utility for the challengesof development and poverty reduction. It does not offer an approach thatwill suit all purposes, but it does aim to formulate a definition that iscompatible with the objectives and activities of development agencies. Insum, the question asked here is: what kind of state functioning is requiredto be effective in achieving the Millennium Development Goals? Statefunctioning can be affected by a variety of different problems, and can beevaluated at the sub-national as well as supra-national levels. The keyissue is identifying those aspects of state capacity and government policythat are vital for basic development effectiveness. Poor developmentalperformance is thus not the defining problem, but rather it is the absenceof a strong and/or legitimate state with which to engage. This approach isintended to complement rather than displace other analytical approachesto fragile states, including the analytical approach of the UK PrimeMinister’s Strategy Unit project on Countries At Risk of Instability. 14II.The importance of difficult environments in achievingdevelopment goals9. Difficult environments are a challenge to global development. Stateweakness tends to be correlated with poverty. Fragile states are generallythe countries with the lowest levels of life expectancy, literacy and accessto basic services, and with the highest levels of infant and maternalmortality, crime and corruption. Since many of the world’s poorest andmost vulnerable people live in these states, they are of vital importance in14 http://www.strategy.gov.uk/output/Page5426.aspThis working paper is intended to stimulate public discussion. It is not necessarilyDFID or UK Government policy9
Fragile States: Defining Difficult Environments for Poverty Reductionreducing poverty. This is particularly true of Africa, where weakgovernance, conflict and HIV/AIDS are reversing the development gains ofprevious decades. But state weakness, poor governance and downwardeconomic trends are also major problems in parts of Latin America and theCaribbean, South Asia, Central Asia and the former Soviet Union states,and some Arab states. There is evidence that the causal relationshipbetween difficult environments and poverty is bi-directional. Strongerinstitutional and policy environments are more effective in using aid togenerate growth, 15 whereas states with lower levels of income per capitaare more likely to experience conflict or adverse regime change. 1610. Effective states are required to make development aid effective. Withouteffective state authority, regulation, and service delivery, the aspirations ofeconomic growth and improved human development are elusive. There isnow consensus that development aid is more effective where there aregood policies and strong institutions. 17 At the same time, the consensuson a partnership approach to aid based on country-owned povertyreduction strategies requires a fairly high degree of state effectiveness tolead on policy and implement donor-supported programmes.11. The partnership model of aid effectiveness. While there is no full unanimityamong donors on a partnership model of development, the MonterreyConsensus – the International Conference on Financing for Developmentheld in Mexico in 2002 – went some way towards consolidating a dominantset of policy aspirations. 18 The partnership approach to development hasbeen developed around the key themes of increased and more effectiveaid, giving developing countries a stronger voice in the international arena,supporting enabling policies for growth and poverty reduction, andstrengthening country ownership alongside donor alignment. Aid allocationtrends that favour states with strong institutional and policy environmentshave been apparent since 2000 19 , and are now embodied in the WorldBank’s Performance Based Allocation system for IDA countries as well asthe US Millennium Challenge Account. At the same time, the focus onalignment and partnership has shifted aid disbursements from projects andprogrammes to sector wide approaches and more direct budget support.These aid instruments require the recipient state to take a stronger policylead, and also to have in place capable public institutions to deliver basicservices.12. The partnership model assumes what most difficult environments lack:basic levels of state capacity and commitment. For this model and itsmechanisms, particularly the PRS (Poverty Reduction Strategy), to beeffective, a basic set of requirements are clearly being assumed:15 Dollar and Pritchett (1998).16 The State Failure Task Force found that countries with high infant mortality rates areroughly twice as likely to experience state failure as control states. (State Failure Task Force(2000), vi).17 Collier and Dollar (2002).18 An early and seminal statement of the approach is set out in OECD DAC (1996).19 Dollar and Levin (2004).This working paper is intended to stimulate public discussion. It is not necessarilyDFID or UK Government policy10
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