Culmiating Task-3.pdf

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But there have always been divisions in the anti-Moscow alliance. European countries such asGermany have always been more hesitant. And now Washington is signalling that it too isinterested in rapprochement.The reasons are easy to understand.First, the U.S. needs Russia’s good offices if it to succeed in its war against the Islamic State.The key to that war is Syria and the key to Syria is its embattled president, Bashar Assad.The U.S. has no influence with Assad. Russia does. If Assad cannot be persuaded tocompromise, then the Syrian civil war is doomed to continue. If the civil war continues, IslamicState militants based in Syria will continue to thrive.If the Islamic State continues to thrive, the U.S. will defeat it only by sending in ground troops— something President Barack Obama does not want to do.Second, economic sanctions against Russia aren’t working. True, they are causing hardship.Sanctions coupled with collapsing oil prices caused Russia’s economy to shrink by 2 per cent inthe first three months of this year.But oil prices are stabilizing and Russia, a major petroleum exporter, is likely to rebound.More to the point, sanctions haven’t worked politically. If anything, they have served tostrengthen Putin’s popularity at home.Third, China. Putin has responded to the West’s rebuff by embracing Beijing. China hasreciprocated.Since annexing Crimea, Russia has signed two big natural gas deals with China.Most Western leaders, including Obama and Prime Minister Stephen Harper, boycottedRussia’scelebration marking the 70th anniversary of the Allied victory over Nazi Germany.Chinese President Xi Jinping did not.He and Putin stood shoulder to shoulder Saturday as Russian troops paraded through Moscow’sRed Square.Chinese and Russian naval forces are conducting joint naval exercise in the Black Sea.The U.S. finds all of this alarming. It sees China, not Russia, as America’s chief geopoliticaladversary.Already, China is flexing its muscles against U.S. allies like Japan and the Philippines.23
Beijing is also challenging America’s pre-eminence in the world economy. Much toWashington’s chagrin, even Britain, France and Germany have opted to join the new ChinesedominatedAsian Infrastructure Investment Bank.All of this helps to explain why the U.S. wants warmer relations with Russia. But it is a desirenot shared by Ottawa.Five months before an election, and with the votes of Ukrainian-Canadians firmly inmind, Harper’s government is happy to maintain its quasi-principled opposition to Russianaggression.I say quasi because in some matters Ottawa has quietly bent those principles. Thus thegovernment has imposed only partial sanctions against Russia energy giant Rosneft, whichhappens to own 30 per cent of an Exxon oil project in southern Alberta.Otherwise, Canada’s leaders are cold warriors to the hilt. The Americans may choose to take amore measured approach to Russia. You won’t catch Canada’s government doing that.24
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