TUESDAY 17 AUGUST 2010 09:00 - 10:45 PAIRED ... - netease.com

TUESDAY 17 AUGUST 2010 

09:00 - 10:45 PAIRED INVITED SESSIONS 

09:00 - 10:45 APPLIED THEORY 

Chairperson: Matthew Jackson, Stanford University 

Discussant: Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University 

MATCHING MARKETS: THEORY AND PRACTICE 

Atila Abdulkadiroglu, Duke University and Tayfun Sonmez, Boston 

College 

THE ECONOMICS OF INTERNET MARKETS 

Jonathan Levin, Stanford University 

09:00 - 10:45 FINANCE 

Chairperson: Guy Laroque, INSEE-CREST and 

University College London 

Discussant: Peter de Marzo, Stanford University 

THE MACROECONOMICS OF HOUSING 

Monika Piazzesi, Stanford University 

MACROECONOMICS WITH FINANCIAL FRICTIONS 

Markus Brunnermeier, Princeton University 

Co-Author: Yuliy Sannikov, Princeton University 

09:00 - 10:45 IO ECONOMETRICS 

Chairperson: Philip Haile, Yale University 

Discussant: Martin Pesendorfer, London School of 

Economics 

GAME THEORY AND ECONOMETRICS: A SURVEY OF SOME 

RECENT RESEARCH 

Patrick Bajari, University of Minnesota and Han Hong, Stanford 

University 

Room Yellow River Hall 

Room Auditorium 

Room Century Hall 

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EMPIRICAL DYNAMIC MODELS OF 

DEMAND AND COMPETITION IN OLIGOPOLY INDUSTRIES 

Victor Aguirregabiria, University of Toronto and Aviv Nevo, Northwestern 

University 

11:15 - 12:45 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 

11:15 - 12:45 COMPUTATION (COM) 

Chairperson: Huiyu Li, Stanford University 

MASSIVELY PARALLEL COMPUTATION USING GRAPHICS 

PROCESSORS WITH APPLICATION TO OPTIMAL 

EXPERIMENTATION IN DYNAMIC CONTROL 

Sergei Morozov, Morgan Stanley 

Co-Author: Sudhanshu Mathur, Morgan Stanley 

MONOTONE APPROXIMATION OF DECISION PROBLEMS 

Thomas Weber, Stanford University 

Room 3G

Co-Author: Naveed Chehrazi, Stanford University 

ACCURACY OF NUMERICAL POLICY FUNCTIONS FOR A SAVINGS 

PROBLEM 

Huiyu Li, Stanford University 

11:15 - 12:45 CONTRACT THEORY (THY) 

Chairperson: Robert Evans, University of Cambridge 


STAR WARS: EXCLUSIVE TALENT AND COLLUSIVE OUTCOMES IN 

LABOR MARKETS 

Arijit Mukherjee, Michigan State University 

Co-Author: Luís Vasconcelos, Universidade Nova de Lisboa 

EFFICIENT VS OPTIMAL MANAGERIAL TURNOVER 

Alessandro Pavan, 

Co-Author: Daniel Garrett, Northwestern University 

BILATERAL TRADING AND RENEGOTIATION 

Robert Evans, University of Cambridge 

Co-Author: Soenje Reiche, Gremaq, TSE, Universit of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 GLOBAL GAMES (THY) 

Chairperson: Eugen Kovac, University of Bonn 

CHARACTERISING EQUILIBRIUM SELECTION IN GLOBAL GAMES 

WITH STRATEGIC COMPLEMENTARITIES 

Christian Basteck, Technical University Berlin 

Co-Authors: Tijmen Daniels, Technical University Berlin and Frank 

Heinemann, Technical University Berlin 

SPECULATIVE ATTACKS WITH MULTIPLE TARGETS 

Junichi Fujimoto, University of Tokyo 

REVERSIBILITY IN DYNAMIC COORDINATION PROBLEMS 

Eugen Kovac, University of Bonn 

Co-Author: Jakub Steiner, Northwestern University 

11:15 - 12:45 AUCTIONS I (THY) 

Chairperson: Gabor Virag, University of Rochester 

EFFICIENT AND OPTIMAL SELLING PROCEDURES WITH PRIVATE 

INFORMATION ACQUISITION COSTS 

Lixin Ye, The Ohio State University 

Co-Author: Jingfeng Lu, National University of Singapore 

OPTIMAL CHARITY AUCTION: HOW DOES "ASYMMETRY" IN 

EXTERNALITIES MATTER? 

Jingfeng Lu, National University of Singapore 

FIRST-PRICE AUCTIONS WITH RESALE: THE CASE OF MANY 

BIDDERS 

Gabor Virag, University of Rochester 

11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING I (THY) 

Chairperson: Eric Budish, University of Chicago, 

Booth School of Business 

Room 3A 

Room 3B 

Room 3C

VON NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN SOLUTIONS IN THE ASSIGNMENT 

MARKET 

Marina Nunez, University of Barcelona 

Co-Author: Carles Rafels, University of Barcelona 

MATCHING MARKETS UNDER (IN)COMPLETE INFORMATION 

Jordi Massó, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 

Co-Author: Lars Ehlers, Université de Montréal 

THE MULTI-UNIT ASSIGNMENT PROBLEM: THEORY AND 

EVIDENCE FROM COURSE ALLOCATION AT HARVARD 

Eric Budish, University of Chicago, Booth School of Business 

Co-Author: Estelle Cantillon, Universite libre de Bruxelles 

11:15 - 12:45 COMMUNICATION I (THY) 

Chairperson: Wojciech Olszewski, Northwestern 

University 

ADVERSARIAL VERSUS INQUISITORIAL TESTIMONY 

Winand Emons, University of Bern 

Co-Author: Claude Fluet, University du Quebec a Montreal 

ADVISING ON ALTERNATIVES: PANDERING TO PERSUADE 

Wouter Dessein, Columbia Business School 

Co-Authors: Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University and Navin Kartik, 

Columbia University 

DELIBERATION 

Wojciech Olszewski, Northwestern University 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS OF BARGAINING AND 

COOPERATION (EXP) 

Chairperson: Steve Lehrer, Queen''s University and 

NBER 

HOW TO PLACE TRUST WELL? A STUDY OF THE EFFECT OF THE 

SOURCE OF INFORMATION ON COOPERATION IN AN 

INVESTMENT GAME 

Juergen Bracht, University of Aberdeen 

WHICH WORDS BOND? AN EXPERIMENT ON SIGNALING IN A 

PUBLIC GOOD GAME 

Marta Serra-Garcia, Tilburg University 

Co-Authors: Jan Potters, Tilburg University and ERIC VAN DAMME, 

CENTER, TILBURG UNIVERSITY 

BARGAINING AND REPUTATION: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE ON 

BARGAINING IN THE PRESENCE OF IRRATIONAL TYPES 

Steve Lehrer, Queen''s University and NBER 

Co-Authors: Matthew Embrey, and Guillaume Frechette, New York 

University 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS IN GAMES (EXP) 

Chairperson: Erte Xiao, Carnegie Mellon University 

LINKING ECONOMIC GAMES TO REAL-WORLD OUTCOMES 

Julian Jamison, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

Room 3H 

Room 3F 

Room 3I

Co-Author: Dean Karlan, Yale University 

THE POTENTIAL OF SOCIAL IDENTITY FOR EQUILIBRIUM 

SELECTION 

Yan Chen, University of Michigan 

Co-Author: Roy Chen, University of Michigan 

PROFIT-SEEKING PUNISHMENT CORRUPTS NORM OBEDIENCE 

Erte Xiao, Carnegie Mellon University 

11:15 - 12:45 MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Paul Ma, Stanford University 

INFORMATIONAL EFFICIENCY AND ORDER IMBALANCE IN LIMIT 

ORDER MARKETS 

Wataru Ohta, Osaka University 

Co-Author: Nabil Maghrebi, Wakayama University 

SHORT-TERM REVERSALS,RETURNS TO LIQUIDITY PROVISION 

AND THE COSTS OF IMMEDIACY 

Kalle Rinne, Aalto University (formerly Helsinki School of Economics) 

Co-Author: Matti Suominen, Aalto University (formerly Helsinki School of 

Economics) 

THE IMPACT OF HIGH FREQUENCY ARBITRAGEURS UPON 

MARKET LIQUIDITY: EVIDENCE FROM EXCHANGE OUTAGES 

Paul Ma, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Matthew Harding, Stanford University 

11:15 - 12:45 CONTRACT THEORY I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Peter Swan, University of New South 

Wales 

A CONTINUOUS-TIME ANALYSIS OF OPTIMAL CONTRACTS WITH 

RESTRUCTURING IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH COSTLY 

INFORMATION DISCLOSURE: THEORY AND APPLICATIONS 

Hisashi Nakamura, University of Tokyo 

OPTIMAL SECURITIZATION WITH HETEROGENEOUS INVESTORS 

Semyon Malamud, EPF Lausanne and Swiss Finance Institute 

Co-Authors: Huaxia Rui, The University of Texas at Austin and Andrew 

Whinston, University of Texas at Austin 

CEO INCENTIVES AND INSTITUTIONAL TRADER MONITORING ARE 

SUBSTITUTES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Peter Swan, University of New South Wales 

11:15 - 12:45 ASSET PRICING I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Giovanni Cespa, Queen Mary 

University of London 

PSYCHOLOGICAL ANCHORS, UNDERREACTION, OVERREACTION, 

AND ASSET PRICES 

Jun Li, university of minnesota 

Co-Author: Jianfeng Yu, University of Minnesota 

FIGHTING HUMAN NATURE: PROSPECT THEORY AND MOMENTUM 

ON THE OSLO STOCK EXCHANGE 

Room 5B 

Room 5C 

Room 5H

Nygaard Knut, NORWEGIAN SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS AND 

BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION 

DYNAMIC TRADING AND ASSET PRICES: KEYNES VS. HAYEK 

Giovanni Cespa, Queen Mary University of London 

Co-Author: Xavier Vives, IESE Business School and UPF 

11:15 - 12:45 ESTIMATING CONSUMER EXPECTATIONS (IND) 

Chairperson: Lionel Wilner, Crest-LEI 

SWITCHING COST AND THE DEPOSIT DEMAND IN CHINA 

Chun-Yu Ho, Georgia Institute of Technology 

QUANTIFYING CONSUMER PERCEPTION OF A FINANCIALLY 

DISTRESSED COMPANY 

Robert Hammond, North Carolina State University 

DO CONSUMERS CORRECTLY EXPECT PRICE REDUCTIONS ? 

Lionel Wilner, Crest-LEI 

Co-Author: Philippe Fevrier, CREST-LEI 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPORT DYNAMICS I (INT) 

Chairperson: Benedikt Heid, ifo Institute for 

Economic Research, University of Bayreuth 

PER CAPITA INCOME, MARKET ACCESS COSTS, AND TRADE 

VOLUMES 

Alexander Tarasov, University of Munich 

SEQUENTIAL EXPORTING 

Hector Calvo Pardo, University of Southampton 

Co-Authors: Facundo Albornoz, Univeristy of Birmingham, Gregory 

Corcos, NHH and Emanuel Ornelas, London School of Economics 

SPATIAL EXPORTER DYNAMICS 

Benedikt Heid, ifo Institute for Economic Research, University of 

Bayreuth 

Co-Authors: Fabrice Defever, University of Nottingham, GEP, CEP and 

Mario Larch, Ifo Institute for economic research 

11:15 - 12:45 INSTITUTIONS AND TRADE (INT) 

Chairperson: Sebastian Galiani, Washington 

University in St Louis 

INSTITUTION-DRIVEN COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPLEX 

GOODS AND ORGANIZATIONAL CHOICE 

Sara Formai, Stockholm School of Economics 

Co-Author: Shon Ferguson, Stockholm University 

DOES PUBLIC GOVERNANCE ALWAYS MATTER? HOW 

EXPERIENCE OF POOR INSTITUTIONAL QUALITY INFLUENCES FDI 

TO THE SOUTH 

Rodolphe Desbordes, University of Strathclyde 

Co-Authors: Julia Darby, University of Strathclyde and Ian Wooton, 

University of Strathclyde, CEPR 

FACTOR ENDOWMENTS, DEMOCRACY AND TRADE POLICY 

DIVERGENCE 

Room 3J 

Room 3D 

Room 3E

Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis 

Co-Authors: Norman Schofield, Washington University in St Louis and 

Gustavo Torrens, Washington University in St Louis 

11:15 - 12:45 HEALTH I (LAB) 

Chairperson: Hayley Fisher, University of 

Cambridge 

DO I KNOW MORE THAN MY BODY CAN TELL? 

Amelie Wuppermann, University of Munich (LMU) 

NONPARAMETRIC DECOMPOSITION OF THE DISTRIBUTIONAL 

CHANGE OF BODY MASS INDEX IN CHINA 

Ju Qiu, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Author: Pierre Dubois, Toulouse School of Economics 

THE HEALTH BENEFITS OF MARRIAGE: NEW EVIDENCE USING 

VARIATION IN MARRIAGE TAX PENALTIES 

Hayley Fisher, University of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 DEMOGRAPHY AND GENDER (LAB) 

Chairperson: Analia Schlosser, The Eitan Berglas 

School of Economics 

ESTIMATING GENDER DIFFERENCES IN ACCESS TO JOBS: 

FEMALES TRAPPED AT THE BOTTOM OF THE LADDER 

Laurent Gobillon, Institut National d''Etudes Démographiques (INED) 

Co-Authors: Dominique Meurs, University of Paris 10 (EconomiX) and 

Sébastien Roux, Centre de Recherche en Economie et Statistique 

(CREST) 

DOES GENDER MATTER FOR ACADEMIC PROMOTION? EVIDENCE 

FROM A RANDOMIZED NATURAL EXPERIMENT 

Natalia Zinovyeva, Foundation for Applied Economic Research (FEDEA) 

Co-Author: Manuel Bagues, University Carlos III 

HOW DO EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION AND PARENTAL LEAVE 

BENEFITS AFFECT MOTHERS’ POST-BIRTH CAREERS 

Analia Schlosser, The Eitan Berglas School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Rafael Lalive, University of Lausanne and Josef Zweimuller, 

University of Zurich 

11:15 - 12:45 FERTILITY AND SEX RATIOS IN CHINA (LAB) 

Chairperson: Junsen Zhang, Department of 

Economics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Room 5D 

Room 5E 

Room Pearl Hall 

EMPLOYMENT AND FERTILITY IN RURAL CHINA: IMPLICATIONS 

FOR THE “ONE–CHILD” POLICY 

Hai Fang, University of Colorado Denver 

Co-Authors: Karen Eggleston, Stanford University, John Rizzo, State 

University of New York at Stony Brook and Richard Zeckhauser, Harvard 

University 

CHILDREN AND PARENTAL HEALTH: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Asadul Islam, Department of Economics, Monash University 

SEX RATIOS AND CRIME: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Junsen Zhang, Department of Economics, The Chinese University of

Hong Kong 

Co-Authors: Lena Edlund, Department of Economics, Columbia 

University, Hongbin Li, Department of Economics, School of Economics 

and Management, Tsinghua University and Junjian Yi, Department of 

Economics, Chinese University of Hong Kong 

11:15 - 12:45 DYNAMIC ISSUES IN MACROECONOMICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Toshihiko Mukoyama, University of 

Virginia 

Room Gran Melia B3 

ESTIMATING DYNAMIC CONTRACTS: RISK SHARING IN VILLAGE 

ECONOMIES 

Sarolta Laczo, Toulouse School of Economics and European University 

Institute 

TIME DISCOUNTING AND INTERGENERATIONAL ALTRUISM 

Masao Ogaki, Keio University 

Co-Authors: Charles Yuji Horioka, Osaka University, Akiko Kamesaka, 

Aoyama Gakuin University, Kohei Kubota, Osaka University and Fumio 

Ohtake, Osaka University 

UNDERSTANDING THE WELFARE EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT 

INSURANCE POLICY IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM 

Toshihiko Mukoyama, University of Virginia 

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMICS: INFLATION (MAX) 

Chairperson: Seok Gil Park, Indiana University 

Bloomington 


INFLATION EXPECTATIONS AND RISK PREMIUMS IN AN 

ARBITRAGE-FREE MODEL OF NOMINAL AND REAL BOND YIELDS 

Glenn Rudebusch, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Co-Authors: Jens Christensen, FRBSF and Jose Lopez, FRBSF 

INFLATION, NOMINAL DEBT, HOUSING AND WELFARE 

Shutao Cao, Bank of Canada 

Co-Authors: Cesaire Meh, Bank of Canada, Jose-Victor Rios-Rull, 

University of Minnesota and Yasuo Terajima, Bank of Canada 

QUASI-FISCAL POLICIES OF INDEPENDENT CENTRAL BANKS 

AND INFLATION 

Seok Gil Park, Indiana University Bloomington 

11:15 - 12:45 MODELS OF ASSET PRICING BUBBLES (MAX) 

Chairperson: Tomohiro Hirano, Financial Research 

and Training Center, Financial Services Agency, 

The Japanese Government 

Room Gran Melia F1 

PRODUCE OR SPECULATE? ASSET BUBBLES, OCCUPATIONAL 

CHOICE AND EFFICIENCY 

Edouard Challe, Ecole Polytechnique 

Co-Author: Pierre Cahuc, Ecole Polytechnique 

SELF-FULFILLING BELIEFS AND BOUNDED BUBBLES IN THE U.S. 

HOUSING MARKET 

Masanori Kashiwagi, University of California, Los Angeles 

ASSET BUBBLES, ENDOGENOUS GROWTH, AND FINANCIAL

SYSTEM 

Tomohiro Hirano, Financial Research and Training Center, Financial 

Services Agency, The Japanese Government 

Co-Author: Noriyuki Yanagawa, The University of Tokyo 

11:15 - 12:45 ASSET PRICING: MACROECONOMICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank 

of San Francisco 

HOME EQUITY, FORECLOSURES, AND BAIL-OUT PROGRAMS 

DURING THE SUBPRIME CRISES 

Carlos Garriga, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Co-Author: Don Schlagenhauf, Florida State University 

RISK PREMIA IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM 

Olaf Posch, Aarhus University and CREATES 

RISK AVERSION, THE LABOR MARGIN, AND ASSET PRICING IN 

DSGE MODELS 

Eric Swanson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

11:15 - 12:45 PUBLIC ECONOMICS: SOCIAL SECURITY (PUB) 

Chairperson: Wallace K C Mok, The Chinese 

University of Hong Kong 



A MATTER OF TRUST: UNDERSTANDING WORLDWIDE PUBLIC 

PENSION CONVERSIONS 

Walter Theseira, Nanyang Technological University 

Co-Author: Kent Smetters, University of Pennsylvania 

SAVING FOR RETIREMENT AND RETIREMENT INVESTMENT 

CHOICES 

Andrea Tiseno, Banca D'Italia 

Co-Author: Monica Paiella, University of Naples “Parthenope” 

DISABILITY, EARNINGS, INCOME AND CONSUMPTION 

Wallace K C Mok, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Co-Author: Bruce Meyer, University of Chicago 

11:15 - 12:45 REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS I (POL) 

Chairperson: Mauro Rodrigues, Department of 

Economics, University of Sao Paulo, Brazil 


THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF CAPITAL REALLOCATION 

Mario Bersem, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Authors: Enrico Perotti, University of Amsterdam and Ernst-Ludwig 

von Thadden, Department of Economics, University of Mannheim 

POLICY DIVERGENCE WITH POST-ELECTORAL BARGAINING 

SunTak Kim, University of Pittsburgh 

TWO-BALLOT VERSUS PLURALITY RULE: AN EMPIRICAL 

INVESTIGATION ON THE NUMBER OF CANDIDATES 

Mauro Rodrigues, Department of Economics, University of Sao Paulo, 

Brazil 

Co-Authors: Carlos Eduardo Goncalves, Department of Economics, 

University of Sao Paulo and Ricardo Madeira, Department of Economics, 

University of Sao Paulo

11:15 - 12:45 VOTING AND CONFLICT IN GROUPS (POL) 

Chairperson: Cesar Martinelli, ITAM 

CHOOSING CHOICES: AGENDA SELECTION WITH UNCERTAIN 

ISSUES 

Eduardo Perez, Economics Department, Ecole Polytechnique 

Co-Author: Raphael Godefroy, Paris School of Economics 

IDENTITY, COMMUNITY, AND SEGREGATION 

Bryony Reich, University of Cambridge 

VOTING AND INCENTIVES IN CARTELS 

Cesar Martinelli, ITAM 

Co-Author: Richard Sicotte, University of Vermont 

11:15 - 12:45 ELECTIONS (POL) 

Chairperson: Ruth Kricheli, Stanford University 

INFERRING STRATEGIC VOTING 

Yasutora Watanabe, Kellogg School, Northwestern Univ 

Co-Author: Kei Kawai, Northwestern University 



POLICY CONVERGENCE IN A TWO-CANDIDATE PROBABILISTIC 

VOTING MODEL. 

Alexey Zakharov, State University-Higher School of Economics 

MASS REVOLUTIONS VS. ELITE COUPS 

Ruth Kricheli, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Yair Livne, Stanford GSB 

11:15 - 12:45 HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR (DEV) 

Chairperson: Christian Helmers, University of Oxford 


BARGAINING POWER WITHIN THE FAMILY IN SOUTH 

KOREA:TRANSFERS TO PARENTS FROM ADULT CHILDREN AND 

VICE-VERSA 

Heonjae Song, Korea Institute of Public Finance 

Co-Author: John Ham, University of Maryland 

SEPARATE EFFECTS OF SIBLING GENDER AND FAMILY SIZE ON 

EDUCATION: METHODS AND FIRST EVIDENCE 

Yen-Chien Chen, Assistant Professor 

Co-Authors: Stacey Chen, Royal Holloway University of London, Hsien- 

Ming Lien, National Cheng-Chi University and Jin-Tan Liu, National 

Taiwan University 

DOES THE ROTTEN CHILD SPOIL HIS COMPANION? SPATIAL 

PEER EFFECTS AMONG CHILDREN IN RURAL INDIA 

Christian Helmers, University of Oxford 

Co-Author: Manasa Patnam, University of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMETRICS I (ECO) 

Chairperson: James Stock, Harvard University 

REAL-TIME MACROECONOMIC MONITORING: REAL ACTIVITY, 

INFLATION, AND INTERACTIONS 

Francis Diebold, University of Pennsylvania 

Room Yangtze Hall

Co-Author: Boragan Aruoba, University of Maryland 

REGIME SWITCHES, AGENTS' BELIEFS, AND POST-WORLD WAR II 

U.S. MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS 

Francesco Bianchi, Duke University 

ESTIMATING BUSINESS CYCLE TURNING POINTS USING LARGE 

DATA SETS 

James Stock, Harvard University 

Co-Author: Mark Watson, 

11:15 - 12:45 MISSING DATA (ECO) 

Chairperson: Andres Santos, University of California 

- San Diego 

IDENTIFICATION ON REGRESSIONS WITH MISSING COVARIATE 

DATA 

Federico Bugni, Duke University 

Co-Authors: Esteban Aucejo, Duke University and V. Joseph Hotz, Duke 

University 

MISSING ORDINAL COVARIATES WITH INFORMATIVE SELECTION 

Alfonso Miranda, Institute of Education, University of London 

Co-Author: Sophia Rabe-Hesketh, University of California, Berkeley 

INTERVAL ESTIMATION OF POTENTIALLY MISSPECIED QUANTILE 

MODELS IN THE PRESENCE OF MISSING DATA 

Andres Santos, University of California - San Diego 

Co-Author: Patrick Kline, University of California - Berkeley 

11:15 - 12:45 VARIANCE ESTIMATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Dale Poirier, University of California, 

Irvine 

ON THE IRRELEVANCE OF IMPOSSIBILITY THEOREMS: THE CASE 

OF THE LONG-RUN VARIANCE 

Linxia Ren, Boston University 

Co-Author: Pierre Perron, Boston University 

AUTOCORRELATION ROBUST MEAN INFERENCE USING 

NONPARAMETRIC SERIES METHODS 

Sun Yixiao, University of California, San Diego 

BAYESIAN INTERPRETATIONS OF HETEROSKEDASTIC 

CONSISTENT COVARIANCE ESTIMATORS USING THE INFORMED 

BAYESIAN BOOTSTRAP 

Dale Poirier, University of California, Irvine 

11:15 - 12:45 NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Yoon-Jae Whang, Seoul National 

University 

ARE ANY GROWTH THEORIES LINEAR? 

Daniel Henderson, Department of Economics, Binghamton University 

Co-Authors: Chris Papageorgiou, International Monetary Fund and 

Christopher Parmeter, Department of Agricultural and Applied 

Economics, Virginia Tech 

Room 5A 

Room 5F 

Room 5G

STOCHASTIC DISCOUNT FACTOR WITH CONDITIONING 

INFORMATION 

Zongwu Cai, University of North Carolina at Charlotte 

NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF A POLARIZATION MEASURE 

Yoon-Jae Whang, Seoul National University 

Co-Authors: Gordon Anderson, University of Toronto and Oliver Linton, 

London School of Economics 

11:15 - 12:45 LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLES (ECO) 

Chairperson: Ed Vytlacil, Yale University 

SIMPLE ESTIMATORS OF SWITCHING REGIMES MODELS WITH 

NORMAL MEAN-VARIANCE MIXTURE COPULAS AND AVERAGE 

TREATMENT EFFECTS 

Jisong Wu, IUPUI 

Co-Author: Yanqin Fan, Vanderbilt University 

ITERATIVE LEAST SQUARES ESTIMATION OF SEMIVARYING- 

COEFFICIENT PROBIT MODELS 

Tadao Hoshino, Tokyo Institute of Technology 

NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A 

BINARY CHOICE MODEL OF LOAN APPROVAL USING ONLY 

APPROVED LOANS 

Ed Vytlacil, Yale University 

Co-Authors: Wei Jiang, Columbia University and Ashlyn Nelson, Indiana 

University 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Nekipelov Denis, UC Berkeley 

FOURTH ORDER PSEUDO MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD METHODS 

Michael Rockinger, University of Lausanne 

Co-Authors: Alberto Holly, University of Lausanne and Alain Monfort, 

CREST 

NUMERICAL PERFORMANCE OF MCMC ALGORITHMS FOR 

CLASSICAL ESTIMATION 

Anna Kormilitsina, Southern Methodist University 

Co-Author: Denis Nekipelov, University of California - Berkeley 

EXTREMUM ESTIMATION AND NUMERICAL DERIVATIVES 

Nekipelov Denis, UC Berkeley 

Co-Authors: Han Hong, Stanford University and Aprajit Mahajan, 

Stanford University 

14:15 - 16:15 CONTRIBUTED SESSIONS 

14:15 - 16:15 COMPUTATION IN DYNAMIC MODELS (COM) 

Chairperson: Michael Evers, Bonn University 

VERIFYING COMPETITIVE EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC ECONOMIES 

Felix Kubler, University of Zurich 

COMPUTING EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC MODELS WITH 

OCCASIONALLY BINDING CONSTRAINTS 

Room 5I 

Room 5J 

Room 3G

Johannes Brumm, Mannheim University 

Co-Author: Michael Grill, Mannheim University 

IMPROVING THE NUMERICAL PERFORMANCE OF BLP STATIC 

AND DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE RANDOM COEFFICIENTS 

DEMAND ESTIMATION 

Su Che-Lin, University of Chicago Booth School of Business 

Co-Authors: Jean-Pierre Dube, University of Chicago and Jeremy Fox, 

University of Chicago 

A SELF-CONSISTENT PERTURBATION PROCEDURE FOR SOLVING 

DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS 

Michael Evers, Bonn University 

14:15 - 16:15 AMBIGUITY AND MARKETS (THY) 

Chairperson: Daniel Garrett, Northwestern 

University 

EFFICIENT ALLOCATIONS UNDER AMBIGUITY 

Jan Werner, University of Minnesota 

Co-Author: Tomasz Strzalecki, Harvard University 

HEDGING PRIORS 

Johannes Gierlinger, Toulouse School of Economics 


ROBUST MEAN VARIANCE PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS 

Fabio Maccheroni, Bocconi 

Co-Authors: Massimo Marinacci, Bocconi and Doriana Ruffino, University 

of Minnesota 

FOUNDATIONS FOR SIMPLE MENUS OF CONTRACTS IN COST- 

BASED PROCUREMENT 

Daniel Garrett, Northwestern University 

14:15 - 16:15 BARGAINING I (THY) 

Chairperson: Edoardo Gallo, University of Oxford, 

Nuffield College 


BARGAINING ORDER IN ASYMMETRIC MULTI-PERSON 

BARGAINING GAME 

Jun Xiao, Department of Economics, The Pennsylvania State University 

THE ROBUST OUTCOME IN MULTILATERAL BARGAINING 

Jianbo Zhang, Univ of Kansas 

ONGOING NEGOTIATION WITH ENDOGENOUS STATUS QUO 

Wioletta Dziuda, MEDS, Kellogg School of Management, Northwestern 

University 

Co-Author: Antoine Loeper, MEDS, Kellogg School of Management, 

Northwestern University 

BARGAINING AND SOCIAL STRUCTURE 

Edoardo Gallo, University of Oxford, Nuffield College 

14:15 - 16:15 DECISION THEORY I (THY) 

Chairperson: Leandro Nascimento, NYU 

CHOICE BY LEXICOGRAPHIC SEMIORDERS 

Room Gran Melia B3

Paola Manzini, University of St. Andrews 

Co-Author: Marco Mariotti, University of St Andrews 

MAXMIN EXPECTED UTILITY ON A SUBJECTIVE STATE SPACE: 

CONVEX PREFERENCES UNDER RISK 

Simone Cerreia Vioglio, Columbia University 

A SALIENCE THEORY OF CHOICE ERRORS 

Marco Mariotti, University of St Andrews 

Co-Author: Paola Manzini, University of St. Andrews 

SECOND-ORDER AMBIGUOUS BELIEFS 

Leandro Nascimento, NYU 

Co-Author: Gil Riella, UnB 

14:15 - 16:15 FOUNDATIONAL ISSUES IN GAME THEORY 

(THY) 

Chairperson: Younghwan In, KAIST Business 

School 

BAYESIAN AND CONSISTENT ASSESSMENTS 

Carlos Pimienta, The University of New South Wales 

COURNOT OLIGOPOLY AND CONCAVO-CONCAVE DEMAND 

Christian Ewerhart, University of Zurich 

INDEPENDENT RANDOM MATCHING WITH MANY TYPES 

Konrad Podczeck, Department of Economics, University of Vienna 

Co-Author: Daniela Puzzello, Department of Economics, University of 

Illinois 

SIGNALING PRIVATE CHOICES 

Younghwan In, KAIST Business School 

Co-Author: Julian Wright, National University of Singapore 

14:15 - 16:15 DYNAMIC GE AND GROWTH (THY) 

Chairperson: Atsushi Kajii, Kyoto University 

STATUS, INTERMTEMPORAL CHOICE AND RISK-TAKING 

Arthur Robson, Simon Fraser University 



IMPROVEMENT OF INFORMATION AND PRIVATE INVESTMENT IN 

EDUCATION 

Bernhard Eckwert, Bielefeld University 

HYSTERESIS IN DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS WITH 

CASH-IN-ADVANCE CONSTRAINTS 

Kazuya Kamiya, University of Tokyo 

Co-Author: Takashi Shimizu, Kansai University 

CONSTRAINED INEFFICIENCY AND OPTIMAL TAXATIONWITH 

UNINSURABLE RISKS 

Atsushi Kajii, Kyoto University 

Co-Authors: Piero Gottardi, European University Institute and Tomoyuki 

Nakajima, Kyoto University 

14:15 - 16:15 BEHAVIORAL FIELD EXPERIMENTS (EXP) 

Chairperson: Tomomi Tanaka, Arizona State 

Room Gran Melia B4

University 

THE INCENTIVE EFFECTS OF AFFIRMATIVE ACTION IN A REAL 

EFFORT TOURNAMENT 

Caterina Calsamiglia , Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona 

Co-Author: Joerg Franke, University of Dortmund 

FREE RIDING IN THE LAB AND IN THE FIELD 

Georg Gebhardt, University of Cologne 

Co-Author: Florian Englmaier, University of Munich 

THE ROLE OF INFORMATION IN PERFORMANCE SCHEMES: 

EVIDENCE FROM A FIELD EXPERIMENT 

Andreas Roider, University of Heidelberg 

Co-Authors: Florian Englmaier, University of Munich and Uwe Sunde, 

Swiss Institute of Empirical Economic Research 

COMPETITION AS A SAVING INCENTIVE: A FIELD EXPERIMENT 

WITH THE HOMELESS 

Tomomi Tanaka, Arizona State University 

Co-Authors: Sera Linardi, California Institute of Technology and Rajiv 

Sinha, Arizona State University 

14:15 - 16:15 CREDIT MARKETS I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Rafael Repullo, CEMFI 

DIAGNOSING THE LIBOR: STRATEGIC MANIPULATION AND 

MEMBER PORTFOLIO POSITIONS 

Connan Snider, University of California Los Angeles 

DETECTING REGIME SHIFTS IN CORPORATE CREDIT SPREADS 

Olfa Maalaoui, KAIST Graduate School of Finance 

FINANCIAL MARKETS, DIVERSIFICATION, AND ALLOCATIVE 

EFFICIENCY: INTERNATIONAL EVIDENCE 

Alexander Popov, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: Simone Manganelli, European Central Bank 

MORAL HAZARD AND DEBT MATURITY 

Rafael Repullo, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Gur Huberman, Columbia Business School 

14:15 - 16:15 CORPORATE FINANCE THEORY (FIN) 

Chairperson: Jean-Paul Décamps, Toulouse School 

of Economics 

COLLATERAL AND CAPITAL STRUCTURE 

Adriano Rampini, Duke University 

Co-Author: S. Viswanathan, Duke University 

FUND MANAGERS’ CONTRACTS AND SHORT-TERMISM 

Catherine Casamatta, Toulouse School of Economics & IAE 

Co-Author: Sebastien Pouget, Toulouse School of Economics 

INTEREST RATE SHOCKS AND CREDIT RISK 

Carlos Gonzalez-Aguado, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Javier Suarez, CEMFI 

Room 5A 

Room 5B

FREE CASH-FLOW, ISSUANCE COSTS AND STOCK PRICE 

VOLATILITY 

Jean-Paul Décamps, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Thomas Mariotti, Toulouse School of Economics, Jean- 

Charles Rochet, Universty of Zurich - TSE and Stephane Villeneuve, 

14:15 - 16:15 MARKET MICROSTRUCTURE II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Kei Kawakami, UCLA 

FINANCIAL EXPERTISE AS AN ARMS RACE 

Richard Lowery, University of Texas-Austin 

Co-Authors: Vincent Glode, University of Pennsylvania and Richard 

Green, Carnegie Mellon University 

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF SHORT-TERM REVERSALS 

Matti Suominen, Aalto University (formerly Helsinki School of Economics) 

Co-Author: Kalle Rinne, Aalto University (formerly Helsinki School of 

Economics) 

MARKET FREEZE AND RECOVERY: TRADING DYNAMICS UNDER 

OPTIMAL INTERVENTION BY A MARKET-MAKER-OF-LAST- 

RESORT 

Jonathan Chiu, Bank of Canada 

Co-Author: Thorsten Koeppl, Queen's University 

THE FORMATION OF EXCHANGES: RISK SHARING AND 

INFORMATION AGGREGATION 

Kei Kawakami, UCLA 

14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Ivan Jaccard, European Central Bank 

ASSET PRICING IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM WITH CONSTRAINTS 

Georgy Chabakauri, London School of Economics 

DOES AMBIGUITY MATTER? ESTIMATING ASSET PRICING 

MODELS WITH A MULTIPLE-PRIORS RECURSIVE UTILITY 

Hwagyun Kim, Texas A&M 

INTERNATIONAL ASSET PRICING WITH RISK-SENSITIVE RARE 

EVENTS 

Riccardo Colacito, UNC Chapel Hill 

Co-Author: Mariano Croce, UNC, Chapel Hill 

ASSET PRICING AND HOUSING SUPPLY IN A PRODUCTION 

ECONOMY 

Ivan Jaccard, European Central Bank 

14:15 - 16:15 INVESTMENT INCENTIVE: THEORY (IND) 

Chairperson: Xinyu Hua, Hong Kong University of 

Science and Technology 

INFORMATION ACQUISITION AND INNOVATION UNDER 

COMPETITIVE PRESSURE 

Andrei Barbos, University of South Florida 

R&D PORTFOLIOS OF MULTIPRODUCT FIRMS 

Room 5C 

Room 5D 

Room Gran Melia F3

Ping Lin, Lingnan University of Hong Kong 

PAYMENTS AND PARTICIPATION: THE INCENTIVES TO JOIN 

COOPERATIVE STANDARD SETTING EFFORTS 

Gerard Llobet, CEMFI 

Co-Authors: Anne Layne-Farrar, LECG and Jorge Padilla, LECG 

EX-ANTE INVESTMENT, EX-POST REMEDY, AND PRODUCT 

LIABILITY 

Xinyu Hua, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

Co-Author: Yongmin Chen, University of Colorado 

14:15 - 16:15 COMPETITION AND PRICING: EMPIRICAL 

STUDIES - I (IND) 

Chairperson: Peter Benczur, MNB and CEU 

DYNAMIC PRICE COMPETITION IN AUTO-INSURANCE 

BROKERAGE 

Luis Braido, FGV Rio 

Co-Author: Bruno Aurichio, FUCAPE Business School 

PRICE DISPERSION AND SEARCH COSTS: THE ROLES OF 

IMPERFECT INFORMATION AND PRODUCT DIFFERENTIATION 

Helena Perrone, University Pompeu Fabra 

Co-Author: Pierre Dubois, Toulouse School of Economics 

PRICE AND BRAND COMPETITION BETWEEN DIFFERENTIATED 

RETAILERS: A STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC MODEL 

Pierre Dubois, Toulouse School of Economics 


EVIDENCE FOR RELATIONAL CONTRACTS IN SOVEREIGN BANK 

LENDING 

Peter Benczur, MNB and CEU 

Co-Author: Cosmin Ilut, Duke University 

14:15 - 16:15 MULTINATIONALS (INT) 

Chairperson: Davin Chor, Singapore Management 

University 

THE GLOBAL NETWORKS OF MULTINATIONAL FIRMS 

Maggie Chen, Geroge Washington University 

Co-Author: Laura Alfaro, Harvard Business School 


DO MULTINATIONALS TRANSPLANT THEIR BUSINESS MODEL? 

Dalia Marin, University of Munich 

Co-Author: Linda Rousova, University of Munich 

THE ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS OF TARIFFS ON OFFSHORING 

INDUSTRIES: HOW NORTH/SOUTH TARIFFS AFFECT INTRA-FIRM 

TRADE 

Diez Federico, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

INTEGRATION VS OUTSOURCING ALONG THE GLOBAL 

PRODUCTION LINE 

Davin Chor, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Pol Antràs, 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS I (INT) Room 3C

Chairperson: Ishise Hirokazu , Boston University 

INVESTMENT-SPECIFIC TECHNOLOGY SHOCKS AND 

INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS CYCLES: AN EMPIRICAL 

ASSESSMENT 

Federico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 

Co-Authors: Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund, Juan Rubio- 

Ramirez, Duke University and Atlanta Fed and Diego Vilan, Univ 

Southern California 

EXTERNAL IMBALANCES AND SUSTAINABILITY 

Dapeng Gu, PhD student, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge 

TRENDING CURRENT ACCOUNTS 

Nelson Mark, University of Notre Dame 

Co-Author: Horag Choi, University of Auckland 

TRADE COSTS AND BUSINESS CYCLE TRANSMISSION IN A 

MULTI-COUNTRY, MULTI-SECTOR MODEL 

Ishise Hirokazu , Boston University 

14:15 - 16:15 LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS (LAB) 

Chairperson: Steven Davis, University of Chicago 

INTERTEMPORAL LABOR SUPPLY WITH SEARCH FRICTIONS 

Josep Pijoan-Mas, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Claudio Michelacci, CEMFI 

DEEP HABITS AND THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOUR OF EQUILIBRIUM 

UNEMPLOYMENT AND VACANCIES 

Renato Faccini, Bank of England 

Co-Author: Federico Di Pace, Birkbeck College 

THE WAGE-PENSION TRADE-OFF IN A DYNAMIC MODEL OF JOB 

SEARCH AND WEALTH ACCUMULATION 

Nadia Karamcheva, Boston College, Department of Economics 

THE ESTABLISHMENT-LEVEL BEHAVIOR OF VACANCIES AND 

HIRING 

Steven Davis, University of Chicago 

14:15 - 16:15 UNEMPLOYMENT (LAB) 

Chairperson: Julie Beugnot, LAMETA Université 

montpellier 1 

THE EFFECTS OF UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ON LABOR 

SUPPLY AND SEARCH OUTCOMES: REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY 

AND STRUCTURAL ESTIMATES 

Johannes Schmieder, Columbia University / IZA 

Co-Authors: Stefan Bender, IAB and Till von Wachter, Columbia 

University 

OPTIMAL MONITORING AND SANCTIONING SYSTEMS 

Conny Wunsch, University of St. Gallen 

COSTLY INTERVIEWS 

Jens Josephson, Stockholm University 

Room 3B 

Room 3H

Co-Author: Joel Shapiro, Saïd Business School, U. of Oxford 

A MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA MODEL WITH A BINDING MINIMUM WAGE 

Julie Beugnot, LAMETA Université montpellier 1 

14:15 - 16:15 WAGES (LAB) 

Chairperson: Bingyong Zheng, Shanghai University 

of Finance & Economics 

IDIOSYNCRATIC INCOME RISK ESTIMATED FROM IRS 

ADMINISTRATIVE WAGE DATA 

Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota 

Co-Authors: Bradley Heim, US department of treasury, Vasia Panousi, 

Federal Reserve Board, Ivan Vidangos, Federal Reserve Board and 

Giovanni Violante, New York University 

WAGE RISK, ON-THE-JOB SEARCH AND PARTIAL INSURANCE 

Kai Liu, Johns Hopkins University 


JOB CHANGES AND INDIVIDUAL-JOB SPECIFIC WAGE DYNAMICS 

Laura Hospido, Bank of Spain 

IMPERFECT INFORMATION, ON-THE-JOB TRAINING, AND THE 

EMPLOYER SIZE-WAGE PUZZLE: THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Bingyong Zheng, Shanghai University of Finance & Economics 

Co-Author: Shuaizhang Feng, Princeton University 

14:15 - 16:15 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (MAX) 

Chairperson: Akos Valentinyi, Magyar Nemzeti Bank 

SAVING AND GROWTH UNDER BORROWING CONSTRAINTS: 

EXPLAINING THE "HIGH SAVING RATE" PUZZLE 

Yi WEN, St. Louis Fed, USA; and Tsinghua University, Beijing 


A TWO-SECTOR MODEL OF ENDOGENOUS GROWTH WITH 

LEISURE EXTERNALITIES 

Been-Lon Chen, Academia Sinica 

Co-Authors: Costas Azariadis, Washington University and Chia-Hui Lu, 

National Taipei University 

ENDOWMENT STRUCTURE, INDUSTRIAL DYNAMICS, AND 

ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Yong Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

Co-Authors: Jiandong Ju, University of Oklahoma and Justin Yifu Lin, 

The World Bank 

TWO PERSPECTIVES ON PREFERENCES AND STRUCTURAL 

TRANSFORMATION 

Akos Valentinyi, Magyar Nemzeti Bank 

Co-Authors: Berthold Herrendorf, Arizona State University and Richard 

Rogerson, Arizona State University 

14:15 - 16:15 FLUCTUATIONS IN EMERGING MARKET 

ECONOMIES (MAX) 

Chairperson: Karagedikli Ozer, Reserve Bank of 

New Zealand 

CHARACTERIZING THE BUSINESS CYCLES OF EMERGING 

Room 3D

ECONOMIES 

J. Rodrigo Fuentes, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile 

Co-Author: Cesar Calderon, The World Bank 

LENDING CONSTRAINTS, FINANCIAL LIBERALIZATION AND 

BUSINESS CYCLES IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 

Peng Tao, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Author: Raoul Minetti, Michigan State University 

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN DEMAND ON MEXICO'S TOTAL FACTOR 

PRODUCTIVITY FROM 1950 TO 2008 

Daniel Garces-Diaz, Bank of Mexico 

Co-Authors: Daniel Garces-Diaz, Bank of Mexico, Arturo Lamadrid, Bank 

of Mexico and Luis Esteban Maldonado, Bank of Mexico 

ALL TOGETHER NOW: DO INTERNATIONAL FACTORS EXPLAIN 

RELATIVE PRICE COMOVEMENTS? 

Karagedikli Ozer, Reserve Bank of New Zealand 

Co-Authors: Haroon Mumtaz, and Misa Tanaka, Bank of England 

14:15 - 16:15 MONETARY POLICY I (MAX) 

Chairperson: Shu-Hua Chen, Department of 

Economics, National Taipei University 

INVESTIGATING THE ZERO LOWER BOUND IN THE NOMINAL 

INTEREST RATE UNDER FINANCIAL INSTABILITY 

Carrillo Julio, Maastricht University 

Co-Author: Celine Poilly, Université Catholique de Louvain 

THE OPTIMAL INFLATION RATE UNDER DOWNWARD NOMINAL 

WAGE RIGIDITY 

Andreas Westermark, Sveriges Riksbank 

Co-Author: Mikael Carlsson, Research Department, Sveriges Riksbank, 

CENTRAL BANK BALANCE SHEETS AND LONG TERM FORWARD 

RATES 

Eric Santor , Bank of Canada 

Co-Authors: Sharon Kozicki, Bank of Canada and Lena Suchanek, Bank 

of Canada, European Central Bank 

INTEREST RATE RULES AND THE CREDIT CHANNEL OF 

MONETARY POLICY TRANSMISSION 

Shu-Hua Chen, Department of Economics, National Taipei University 

14:15 - 16:15 DEMOCRACY (POL) 

Chairperson: Pohan Fong, City University of Hong 

Kong 

FOREIGN INFLUENCE AND THE COLD WAR HISTORY OF 

DEMOCRACY IN LATIN AMERICA 

Roberto Bonfatti, London School of Economics and Oxford University 

SOLDIERS OR BUREAUCRATS? CONFLICT AND THE MILITARY’S 

ROLE IN POLICY-MAKING 

Gabriel Leon, University of Cambridge 

INEQUALITY, AND THE STABILITY AND STRUCTURE OF 

DEMOCRACY 

Room 3E 

Room 3I

Florian Jung, Institute of Economics, University of St. Gallen 

Co-Author: Uwe Sunde, Swiss Institute of Empirical Economic Research 

CONSTRAINED AUTOCRACY 

Pohan Fong, City University of Hong Kong 

Co-Author: Daniel Diermeier, Northwestern University 

14:15 - 16:15 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT I (DEV) 

Chairperson: Dennis Yang , Chinese University of 

Hong Kong 

URBANIZATION AND STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 

Stephen Redding, London School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Guy Michaels, London School of Economics and Ferdinand 

Rauch, University of Vienna 

TECHNOLOGY DIFFUSION AND GROWTH 

Luttmer Erzo, University of Minnesota 

TIME INCONSISTENCY, EXPECTATIONS AND TECHNOLOGY 

ADOPTION: 

Aprajit Mahajan, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Alessandro Tarozzi, Duke University 

MODERNIZATION OF AGRICULTURE AND LONG-TERM GROWTH 

Dennis Yang , Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Co-Author: Xiaodong Zhu, University of Toronto 

14:15 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT: MACROECONOMIC ISSUES 

(DEV) 

Chairperson: Shing-Yi Wang, New York University 

DOES SAVINGS CROWD OUT INFORMAL INSURANCE? EVIDENCE 

FROM A LAB EXPERIMENT IN THE FIELD 

Horacio Alejandro Larreguy Arbesu, MIT Economics (graduate student) 

Co-Authors: Arun G. Chandrasekhar, MIT Economics and Cynthia 

Kinnan, MIT Economics 

ENTROPY CHARACTERISATION OF INSURANCE DEMAND: 

THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Yasuyuki Sawada, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo 

Co-Authors: Hiroyuki Nakata, Essex Business School, University of 

Essex and Mari Tanaka, Graduate School of Economics, University of 

Tokyo 

INTRINSIC CHARACTERISTICS VS THRESHOLD NONLINEARITIES: 

A TEST FOR POVERTY TRAPS 

Jose Olmo, City University London 

Co-Authors: Antonio Galvao, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and 

Gabriel Montes-Rojas, City University London 

STATE MISALLOCATION AND HOUSING PRICES: THEORY AND 

EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Shing-Yi Wang, New York University 

14:15 - 16:15 ESTIMATION OF DSGE MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Raffaella Giacomini, UCL Economics 

Room 3A 

Room 3J 

Room Yangtze Hall

EXACT LIKELIHOOD COMPUTATION FOR NONLINEAR DSGE 

MODELS WITH HETEROSKEDASTIC INNOVATIONS 

Gianni Amisano, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank 

ESTIMATING NEW KEYNESIAN DSGE MODELS IN A LIQUIDITY 

TRAP USING THE MONTE CARLO PARTICLE FILTER: AN 

APPLICATION TO THE JAPANESE ECONOMY 

Koiti Yano, Komazawa University 

Co-Authors: Yasuyuki Iida, Komazawa University and Hajime Wago, 

Kyoto Sangyo University 

ESTIMATION OF QUASI-RATIONAL DSGE MONETARY MODELS 

Luca Fanelli, University of Bologna 

ESTIMATION OF MOMENT-BASED MODELS WITH LATENT 

VARIABLES 

Raffaella Giacomini, UCL Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 NONPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Arthur Lewbel, Boston College 

FUNCTIONAL PRINCIPAL COMPONENT ANALYSIS OF DENSITY 

FAMILIES WITH CATEGORICAL AND CONTINUOUS DATA ON 

CANADIAN ENTRANT MANUFACTURING FIRMS 

Kim Huynh, Indiana University 

Co-Authors: Kim Huynh, Indiana University , David Jacho-Chávez, 

Indiana University, Robert Petrunia, and Marcel C. Voia, 

K-NEAREST NEIGHBOUR ESTIMATION OF INVERSE-DENSITY- 

WEIGHTED EXPECTATIONS WITH DEPENDENT DATA 

David Jacho-Chávez, Indiana University 

Co-Author: Ba Chu, Carleton University 

NONPARAMETRIC REGRESSION WITH NONPARAMETRICALLY 

GENERATED COVARIATES 

Melanie Schienle, Humboldt-Universitaet zu Berlin 

Co-Authors: Enno Mammen, and Christoph Rothe, Toulouse School of 

Economics 

NONPARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF A BINARY RANDOM 

FACTOR IN CROSS SECTION DATA 

Arthur Lewbel, Boston College 

Co-Author: Yingying Dong, California State University Fullerton 

14:15 - 16:15 ECONOMETRICS OF GAMES (ECO) 

Chairperson: Pedro Mira, CEMFI 

ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC DISCRETE GAMES WHEN PLAYERS' 

BELIEFS ARE NOT IN EQUILIBRIUM 

Victor Aguirregabiria, University of Toronto 

Co-Author: Arvind Magesan, University of Toronto 

SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF BINARY DECISION GAMES OF 

INCOMPLETE INFORMATION WITH CORRECTED PRIVATE 

SIGNALS 

Yuanyuan Wan, 

Co-Author: Haiqing Xu, Economics Department, Pennsylvania State 

Room 5E 

Room 5F

University 

SEMI-PARAMETRIC LIKELIHOOD INFERENCE FOR WORST CASE 

DYNAMIC DISCRETE GAMES 

Zhengyuan Gao, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Author: Kees Jan van Garderen, University of Amsterdam 

STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION AND COUNTERFACTUAL 

EXPERIMENTS IN GAMES WHEN THE DATA COME FROM 

MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIA 

Pedro Mira, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Victor Aguirregabiria, University of Toronto 

14:15 - 16:15 WEAK IDENTIFICATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University 

WEAK INSTRUMENTS AND THE FIRST STAGE F-STATISTIC IN IV 

MODELS WITH A NONSCALAR ERROR COVARIANCE STRUCTURE 

Maurice Bun, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Author: Monique De Haan, University of Amsterdam 

SPECIFICATION TESTS FOR STRONG IDENTIFICATION 

Bertille Antoine, Simon Fraser University 

Co-Author: Eric Renault, 

ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE WITH WEAK IDENTIFICATION 

Xu Cheng, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Donald Andrews, Yale University 

EXOGENEITY TESTS, WEAK IDENTIFICATION AND IV ESTIMATION: 

IS THE CURE WORSE THAN THE ILLNESS ? 

Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University 

Co-Author: Firmin Doko, Universite de Montreal 

14:15 - 16:15 SPECIFICATION TESTING (ECO) 

Chairperson: Aman Ullah, University Of California, 

Riverside 

CONSISTENT MODEL SPECIFICATION TESTING 

Andreea Halunga, University of Exeter 

Co-Author: James Davidson, University of Exeter 

FUNCTIONAL COEFFICIENT REGRESSION MODELS WITH TIME 

TREND 

Qi Li, Texas A&M University 

Co-Author: Zhongwen Liang, Texas A&M University 

NONPARAMETRIC SPECIFICATION TESTS FOR CONTINUTOUS- 

TIME STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS BASED ON VOLATILITY 

DENSITY 

Yang Zu, University of Amsterdam 

A NONPARAMETRIC GOODNESS-OF FIT BASED TEST FOR 

CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY 

Aman Ullah, University Of California, Riverside 

14:15 - 16:15 APPLIED BAYESIAN INFERENCE (ECO) 

Chairperson: Nicholas Kiefer, Cornell University 

Room 5H 

Room 5I 

Room 5J

A VEHICLE OWNERSHIP AND UTILIZATION CHOICE MODEL WITH 

ENDOGENOUS RESIDENTIAL DENSITY 

David Brownstone, University of California, Irvine 

Co-Author: Hao (Audrey) Fang, Cornerstone Research, San Francisco, 

California, USA 

A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER MODEL FOR DISCRETE ORDINAL 

OUTCOMES: A HEALTH PRODUCTION FUNCTION 

Xueyan Zhao, Monash University 

Co-Authors: William Griffiths, University of Melbourne and Xiaohui 

Zhang, Monash University 

MONETARY VALUATION OF INFORMAL CARERS' NEEDS USING A 

DISCRETE CHOICE EXPERIMENT: A BAYESIAN APPROACH 

Gu Yuanyuan, School of Economics, University of New South Wales 

Co-Authors: Denzil Fiebig, School of Economics, University of New 

South Wales, Jane Hall, Centre for Health Economics Research & 

Evaluation, University of Technology Sydney and Robert Kohn, School of 

Economics, University of New South Wales 

INCENTIVE-COMPATIBLE ELICITATION OF QUANTILES 

Nicholas Kiefer, Cornell University 

16:45 - 18:15 PLENARY SESSION 

16:45 - 18:15 PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS 

Chairperson: Jean-Charles Rochet, Universty of 

Zurich - TSE 

Room Grand Ballroom 

CONTAGIOUS ILLIQUIDITY 

John Moore, University of Edinburgh and London School of Economics

WEDNESDAY 18 AUGUST 2010 


09:00 - 10:45 CONTRACTS 

Chairperson: Jacques Crémer, Toulouse School of 

Economics 

Discussant: Johannes Hörner, Yale University 

CONTRACTS: THEORY OF DYNAMIC PRINCIPAL-AGENT 

RELATIONSHIPS AND THE CONTINUOUS-TIME APPROACH 

Yuliy Sannikov, Princeton University 


DYNAMIC FINANCIAL CONTRACTING 

Bruno Biais, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Thomas Mariotti, Toulouse School of Economics and Jean- 

Charles Rochet, Universty of Zurich - TSE 

09:00 - 10:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY 

Chairperson: Elhanan Helpman, Harvard University 

Discussant: Marco Battaglini, Princeton University 

CONDITIONAL COMPARATIVE STATICS 

James Robinson, Harvard University 

THE POLITICAL ECONOMY OF MASS MEDIA 

David Strömberg, Stockholm University 

Co-Author: Andrea Prat, London School of Economics 

09:00 - 10:45 MACROECONOMETRICS 

Chairperson: Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business 

School 

Discussant: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago 



MACROECONOMICS AND VOLATILITY: DATA, MODELS, AND 

ESTIMATION 

Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania and Juan Rubio- 

Ramirez, Duke University and Atlanta Fed 

ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF DSGE MODELS: PROGRESS 

AND CHALLENGES 

Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania 


11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING II (THY) 

Chairperson: Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University 

KNOCKING OUT THE SUPPLY AND SORTING IN CENTRALIZED 

JOB MARKETS 

Guillaume Haeringer, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona 

Co-Authors: Vincent Iehlé, Université Paris Dauphine and Nuria 

Rodriguez-Planas, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona 

A THEORY OF SCHOOL CHOICE LOTTERIES 

Room Gran Melia B1

Utku Unver, Boston College 

Co-Author: Onur Kesten, Carnegie Mellon University 

IMPLEMENTING RANDOM ASSIGNMENTS: A GENERALIZATION OF 

THE BIRKHOFF-VON NEUMANN THEOREM 

Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University 

Co-Authors: Eric Budish, University of Chicago, Booth School of 

Business, Fuhito Kojima, Stanford University and Paul Milgrom, Stanford 

University 

11:15 - 12:45 COMMUNICATION II (THY) 

Chairperson: Elisabeth Schulte, Mannheim 

University 

STRATEGIC PRIVATE EXPERIMENTATION 

Mike Felgenhauer, Mannheim University 

Co-Author: Elisabeth Schulte, Mannheim University 

EXPERT EXPERIMENTATION 

Nicolas Klein, University of Munich 

Co-Author: Tymofiy Mylovanov, Penn State University 

PRESELECTION AND EXPERT ADVICE 

Elisabeth Schulte, Mannheim University 

Co-Author: Mike Felgenhauer, Mannheim University 

11:15 - 12:45 MECHANISM DESIGN I (THY) 

Chairperson: Heski Bar-Isaac, Stern School of 

Business, NYU 

IMPERFECT PRIVATE INFORMATION AND THE DESIGN OF 

INFORMATION–GENERATING MECHANISMS∗ 

Frank Rosar, University of Bonn 

Co-Author: Elisabeth Schulte, Mannheim University 

A SIMPLE STATUS QUO THAT ASSURES PARTICIPATION (WITH 

APPLICATION TO EFFICIENT BARGAINING) 

Ilya Segal, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Michael Whinston, Northwestern University 



INFORMATION AND HUMAN CAPITAL MANAGEMENT 

Heski Bar-Isaac, Stern School of Business, NYU 

Co-Authors: Ian Jewitt, Nuffiled College, University of Oxford and Clare 

Leaver, University of Oxford 

11:15 - 12:45 AUCTIONS II (THY) 

Chairperson: Georgios Katsenos, Leibniz University 

of Hannover 


WEAK CARTELS AND OPTIMAL AUCTIONS 

Jinwoo Kim, School of Economics, Yonsei University 

Co-Authors: Yeon-Koo Che, Columbia University and Danele Condorelli, 


CORE-SELECTING AUCTIONS WITH INCOMPLETE INFORMATION 

Lawrence Ausubel, University of Maryland 

Co-Author: Oleg Baranov, University of Maryland

OPTIMAL RESERVE PRICES IN SEQUENTIAL AUCTIONS WITH 

IMPERFECT COMMITMENT 

Georgios Katsenos, Leibniz University of Hannover 

11:15 - 12:45 BARGAINING II (THY) 

Chairperson: Pontus Rendhal, University of 

California at Davis 

ONE-TO-MANY BARGAINING WITH ENDOGENOUS PROTOCOL 

Duozhe Li, Chinese University of Hong Kong 

SEARCHING A BARGAIN: PLAY IT COOL OR HAGGLE 

Selcuk Ozyurt, Sabanci University 


RECURSIVE BARGAINING WITH ENDOGENOUS PARTICIPATION 

Pontus Rendhal, University of California at Davis 

Co-Author: Ramon Marimon, European University Institute & Universitat 

Pompeu Fabra 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS AND MARKET OUTCOMES I 

(EXP) 

Chairperson: Jason Shachat, WISE, Xiamen 

University 


THE EXPERIMENTAL ECONOMICS OF CREDENCE GOODS: NON- 

STANDARD PREFERENCES AND THE ROLE OF LIABILITY, 

VERIFIABILITY, REPUTATION AND COMPETITION 

Uwe Dulleck, QUT 

Co-Authors: Rudolf Kerschbamer, University of Innsbruck and Matthias 

Sutter, University of Innsbruck 

OUT-OF EQUILIBRIUM BIDS IN AUCTIONS - WRONG 

EXPECTATIONS OR WRONG BIDS 

J. Philipp Reiss, Maastricht University 

Co-Author: Oliver Kirchkamp, University of Jena 

PROCURING COMMODITIES: REQUEST FOR QUOTE OR REVERSE 

AUCTIONS? 

Jason Shachat, WISE, Xiamen University 

11:15 - 12:45 FINANCE AND THE FIRM I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Piero Gottardi, European University 

Institute 

SHARE AUCTIONS AND THE DIVISION OF VALUE IN CORPORATE 

REORGANIZATIONS 

Gustav Sigurdsson, University of Pennsylvania 

INCENTIVES TO INNOVATE AND THE DECISION TO GO PUBLIC OR 

PRIVATE 

Andre Silva, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia 

Co-Authors: Daniel Ferreira, Department of Finance, London School of 

Economics and Gustavo Manso, MIT Sloan School of Management 

EQUILIBRIUM CORPORATE FINANCE 

Piero Gottardi, European University Institute 

Co-Authors: Alberto Bisin, New York University and Guido Ruta, New 

York University and European University Institute 

Room 5A

11:15 - 12:45 CREDIT MARKETS II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Jan Schrader, University of Heidelbreg 

RELATIONSHIP LENDING IN A FINANCIAL TURMOIL 

Enrico Sette, Bank of Italy 

INFORMATION SHARING AND CROSS-BORDER ENTRY IN 

EUROPEAN BANKING 

Caterina Giannetti, GSBC Jena, University of Siena 

Co-Authors: Nicola Jentzsch, DIW Berlin and Giancarlo Spagnolo, EIEF, 

University of Tor Vergata, SITE Stockholm 

RELATIONSHIP LENDING IN TIMES OF CRISES: WHAT ABOUT 

DEFAULT AND INTEREST RATES? 

Jan Schrader, University of Heidelbreg 

Co-Author: Gunhild Berg, 

11:15 - 12:45 RETURNS (FIN) 

Chairperson: Rene Garcia, EDHEC 

TIME-VARYING COINTEGRATION RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN 

DIVIDENDS AND STOCK PRICE 

Cheolbeom Park, Korea University 

Co-Author: Chang-Jin Kim, Korea University and University of 

Washington 

DOES BETA MOVE WITH NEWS? FIRM-SPECIFIC INFORMATION 

FLOWS AND LEARNING ABOUT PROFITABILITY 

Andrew Patton, Duke University 

Co-Author: Michela Verardo, London School of Economics 

A LONG-HORIZON PERSPECTIVE ON THE CROSS-SECTION OF 

EXPECTED RETURNS 

Rene Garcia, EDHEC 

Co-Author: Abraham LIOUI, Edhec Business School 

11:15 - 12:45 MARKETS WITH SEARCH OR SWITCHING 

COSTS: THEORY (IND) 

Chairperson: Wilfried Sand-Zantman, Toulouse 


Room 5G 



CONDITIONING PRICES ON SEARCH BEHAVIOR 

Jidong Zhou, Department of Economics, UCL, London 

Co-Author: Mark Armstrong, Department of Economics, UCL, London 

TARGETING WITH CONSUMER SEARCH : AN ECONOMIC 

ANALYSIS OF KEYWORDS ADVERTISING 

Alexandre de Corniere, Paris School of Economics 

MOBILE CALL TERMINATION REVISITED 

Wilfried Sand-Zantman, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Bruno Jullien, Toulouse School of Economics (IDEI and 

GREMAQ) and Patrick Rey, Toulouse School of Economics 

11:15 - 12:45 COMPETITION AND PRICING: EMPIRICAL 

STUDIES - II (IND) 

Chairperson: Saul Lach, The Hebrew University 

Room Gran Melia F3

DO AUCTIONS AND FORCED DIVESTITURES INCREASE 

COMPETITION? EVIDENCE FOR RETAIL GASOLINE MARKETS 

Adriaan Soetevent, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Authors: Marco Haan, University of Groningen and Pim Heijnen, 

University of Amsterdam 

REFUND PREMIUM: EVIDENCE FROM THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY 

Seongman Moon, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 

Co-Author: Makoto Watanabe, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 

ASYMMETRIC PRICE EFFECTS OF COMPETITION 

Saul Lach, The Hebrew University 

Co-Author: Jose Luis Moraga-González, University of Groningen 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPORT DYNAMICS II (INT) 

Chairperson: Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, Tilburg 

University 

THE OPPORTUNITY COST OF EXPORTING 

Joel Rodrigue, Vanderbilt University 

Co-Author: Young-Woo Rho, Vanderbilt University 

MACRO-HEDGING FOR COMMODITY EXPORTERS 

Damiano Sandri, International Monetary Fund 

Co-Author: Olivier Jeanne, Johns Hopkins University 

FIRM-LEVEL VOLATILITY AND EXPORTS 

Gonzague Vannoorenberghe, Tilburg University 

11:15 - 12:45 QUANTITATIVE MODELS OF FDI (INT) 

Chairperson: Jiandong Ju, Tsinghua University 

THE "PROXIMITY-CONCENTRATION" TRADEOFF IN A RISKY 

ENVIRONMENT 

Veronica Rappoport, Columbia Business School 

Co-Authors: Natalia Ramondo, UT Texas and Kim Ruhl, NYU Stern 

RISK, RETURNS, AND MULTINATIONAL PRODUCTION 

Stefania Garetto, Boston University 

Co-Author: Jose Luis Fillat, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

FACTOR MARKET FRICTIONS, TRADE LIBERALIZATIONS AND 

CAPITAL FLOWS 

Jiandong Ju, Tsinghua University 

Co-Author: Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University 

11:15 - 12:45 HEALTH II (LAB) 

Chairperson: James Ziliak, University of Kentucky 

INDIVIDUAL INCOME AND REMAINING LIFE EXPECTANCY AT THE 

STATUTORY RETIREMENT AGE OF 65 IN THE NETHERLANDS 

Adriaan Kalwij, Utrecht University & Tilburg University 

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EDUCATION AND SMOKING: 

EVIDENCE FROM A LIFE-CYCLE MODEL 

Kevin Thom, New York University 

Co-Author: Steffen Reinhold, MEA, University of Mannheim 

Room 3C 

Room 3D 

Room 5D

HEALTH, HUMAN CAPITAL ACCUMULATION, AND LIFE CYCLE 

LABOR SUPPLY 

James Ziliak, University of Kentucky 

Co-Author: Charles Hokayem, University of Kentucky 

11:15 - 12:45 FAMILIES AND INEQUALITY (LAB) 

Chairperson: Lidia Farré, IAE-CSIC 

THE PRICE AND WELFARE DEPENDENCE OF EQUIVALENCE 

SCALES: EVIDENCE FROM INDONESIA 

Joppe De Ree, 

Co-Authors: Rob Alessie, Groningen University and menno pradhan, 

RICH DAD, SMART DAD: DECOMPOSING THE 

INTERGENERATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF INCOME 

Lars Lefgren, Brigham Young University 

Co-Authors: Matthew J. Lindquist, Department of Economics, Stockholm 

University and David Sims, Brigham Young University 

DOES INCREASING PARENTS' SCHOOLING RAISE THE 

SCHOOLING OF THE NEXT GENERATION? EVIDENCE BASED ON 

CONDITIONAL SECOND MOMENTS 

Lidia Farré, IAE-CSIC 

Co-Authors: Klein Roger, Rutgers and Francis Vella, Georgetown 

11:15 - 12:45 HUMAN CAPITAL (LAB) 

Chairperson: Sebastian Buhai, Aarhus School of 

Business, Aarhus University 

EXPLAINING PERSONALITY PAY GAPS IN THE UK 

Alita Nandi, ISER, UNIVERSITY OF ESSEX 

Co-Author: Cheti Nicoletti, ISER, University of Essex 

NONPARAMETRIC BOUNDS ON RETURNS TO EDUCATION IN 

SOUTH AFRICA: OVERCOMING ABILITY AND SELECTION BIAS 

Martine Mariotti, Australian National University 

Co-Author: Juergen Mienecke, Australian National University 

JOB HAZARD PAY AND WORKER RISK ATTITUDES 

Sebastian Buhai, Aarhus School of Business, Aarhus University 

Co-Author: Elena Cottini, Catholic University Milan 

11:15 - 12:45 ESTIMATION OF DSGE MODELS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Efrem Castelnuovo , University of 

Padua 

Room 5E 

Room 5J 


FORTUNE OR VIRTUE: TIME-VARIANT VOLATILITIES VERSUS 

PARAMETER DRIFTING IN U.S. DATA 

Pablo Guerron, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank 

Co-Authors: Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde, University of Pennsylvania and 

Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Duke University 

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF A DSGE MODEL WITH ASSET PRICES 

Martin Kliem, Deutsche Bundesbank 

Co-Author: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago 

MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS, CHOLESKI IDENTI…CATION, AND 

DNK MODELS: AN EMPIRICAL INVESTIGATION FOR THE U.S.

Efrem Castelnuovo , University of Padua 

11:15 - 12:45 TAXATION AND MACROECONOMICS I (MAX) 

Chairperson: Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve 

Bank of Minneapolis 

TAXATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL AND WAGE INEQUALITY: A 

CROSS-COUNTRY ANALYSIS 

Serdar Ozkan, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Authors: Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and Burhan 

Kuruscu, University of Texas at Austin 

LUMPY INVESTMENT AND CORPORATE TAX POLICY 

Pengfei Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

Co-Author: Jianjun Miao, Boston University 


REDISTRIBUTIVE TAXATION IN A PARTIAL INSURANCE ECONOMY 

Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

Co-Authors: Kjetil Storesletten, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

and Giovanni Violante, New York University 

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMIC MODELS OF PRICE 

SETTING (MAX) 

Chairperson: Carlos Marques, Banco de Portugal 

PRECAUTIONARY PRICE STICKINESS 

Anton Nakov, Banco de España 

Co-Author: James Costain, Banco de España 

ESTIMATING THE CROSS-SECTIONAL DISTRIBUTION OF PRICE 

STICKINESS FROM AGGREGATE DATA 

Niels Dam, Danmarks Nationalbank 

Co-Author: Carlos Carvalho, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

WHY ARE SOME PRICES STICKIER THAN OTHERS? FIRM-DATA 

EVIDENCE ON PRICE ADJUSTMENT LAGS 

Carlos Marques, Banco de Portugal 

Co-Authors: Daniel Dias, UCLA, Fernando Martins, Banco de Portugal 

and Joao Santos Silva, University of Essex 

11:15 - 12:45 DYNAMIC MACROECONOMIC THEORY (MAX) 

Chairperson: Matthias Kredler, Universidad Carlos 

III Madrid 

RECURSIVE EQUILIBRIA IN AN AIYAGARI STYLE ECONOMY WITH 

PERMANENT INCOME SHOCKS 

Moritz Kuhn, Bonn University 

ROBUST COMPARATIVE STATICS IN LARGE DYNAMIC 

ECONOMIES 

Martin Jensen, University of Birmingham 

Co-Author: Daron Acemoglu, MIT 

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF ALTRUISTICALLY-MOTIVATED 

TRANSFERS 

Matthias Kredler, Universidad Carlos III Madrid 

Co-Author: Barczyk Daniel, New York University 

Room 3E 

Room 3G

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMICS: THE ROLE OF SECTORS 

(MAX) 

Chairperson: Michelle Rendall, University of Zurich 

A MULTI-SECTORAL APPROACH TO THE U.S. GREAT 

DEPRESSION 

Pedro Amaral, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 

Co-Author: James MacGee, University of Western Ontario 

SECTOR-SPECIFIC TECHNICAL CHANGE 

John Fernald, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Co-Authors: Susanto Basu, Boston College, Jonas Fisher, Federal 

Reserve Bank of San Francisco and Miles Kimball, University of 

Michigan 

EXPLAINING CROSS-COUNTRY DIFFERENCES IN SERVICE 

SECTOR AND FEMALE EMPLOYMENT 

Michelle Rendall, University of Zurich 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION I (PUB) 

Chairperson: Lydia Mechtenberg, WZB Berlin 

THE IMPORTANCE OF RELATIVE PERFORMANCE FEEDBACK 

INFORMATION: EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT USING 

HIGH SCHOOL STUDENTS 

Nagore Iriberri, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 

Co-Author: Ghazala Azmat, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 

DO BETTER SCHOOLS LEAD TO MORE GROWTH? COGNITIVE 

SKILLS, ECONOMIC OUTCOMES, AND CAUSATION 

Eric Hanushek, Stanford University 

MIGRATION OF THE HIGHLY SKILLED: CAN EUROPE CATCH UP 

WITH THE U.S.? 

Lydia Mechtenberg, WZB Berlin 

Co-Author: Roland Strausz, Humboldt University - Berlin 

11:15 - 12:45 EMPIRICAL FISCAL ANALYSIS (PUB) 

Chairperson: Nadja Dwenger, Max-Planck-Institut 

Munich 

STATES' RESPONSES TO SHORTFALLS AND WINDFALLS 

Richard Boylan, Rice University 

TAX COMPETITION AMONG U.S. STATES: RACING TO THE 

BOTTOM OR RIDING ON A SEESAW? 

Daniel Wilson, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Co-Author: Robert Chirinko, University of Illinois at Chicago 

CORPORATE TAXATION AND INVESTMENT: EXPLAINING 

INVESTMENT DYNAMICS WITH ¯RM-LEVEL PANEL DATA 

Nadja Dwenger, Max-Planck-Institut Munich 

11:15 - 12:45 INTEREST GROUPS (POL) 

Chairperson: Karam Kang, University of 

Pennsylvania 

CAMPAIGN CONTRIBUTIONS OF INTEREST GROUPS: CATERING 

Room 3H 

Room 3B 

Room 3J 

Room 3F

TO ONE CANDIDATE OR TO ALL? 

Walter Novaes, Department of Economics at PUC-Rio 

Co-Author: Renato Gomes, Northwestern University 

ARE TWO BETTER THAN ONE? COMBINING TAXES AND QUOTAS 

UNDER POLITICAL LOBBYING 

Israel Finkelshtain, Hebrew University of Jerusalem 

THE PRICE OF POWER: ESTIMATING THE RETURNS TO LOBBYING 

IN THE ENERGY SECTOR 

Karam Kang, University of Pennsylvania 

11:15 - 12:45 REDISTRIBUTIVE POLITICS II (POL) 

Chairperson: Seung Han Yoo, Nanyang 

Technological University 

FISCAL CAPACITY, EDUCATION, AND DEVELOPMENT 

Mauricio Prado, Cambridge University 

Co-Author: Mark Dincecco, IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies 

POLITICAL COMPETITION OVER DISTORTIONARY TAXATION 

Matias Nunez Rodriguez, CNRS-CERGY 

A THEORY ON GROUP INEQUALITY: THE NATURE OF CONFLICT 

Seung Han Yoo, Nanyang Technological University 

11:15 - 12:45 BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND 

DEVELOPMENT (DEV) 

Chairperson: Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, Department of 

Economics, University of Chile 

MORAL HAZARD AND PEER MONITORING IN A LABORATORY 

MICROFINANCE EXPERIMENT 

Pushkar Maitra, Monash University 

Co-Authors: Timothy N. Cason, Purdue University and Lata 

Gangadharan, Monash University 

THE CREDIT CONSTRAINT AND HIGHER EDUCATION IN SOUTH 

AFRICA 

Adrien Lorenceau, Paris School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Marc Gurgand, PSE and Thomas MELONIO, Agence 

Française de Développement 

BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND CREDIT DEMAND 

Jaime Ruiz-Tagle, Department of Economics, University of Chile 

Co-Author: Francis Vella, Georgetown University 

11:15 - 12:45 SEMI/NONPARAMETRIC PANEL DATA (ECO) 

Chairperson: Myoung-jae Lee, Korea University 

DYNAMIC BINARY OUTCOME MODELS WITH MAXIMAL 

HETEROGENEITY 

Martin Browning, Oxford University 

ESTIMATING SEMIPARAMETRIC PANEL DATA MODELS BY 

MARGINAL INTEGRATION 

Junhui Qian, School of Economics \ Shanghai Jiao Tong University 

Room 3I 

Room 3A 

Room Yangtze Hall

Co-Author: Le Wang, University of New Hampshire 

LOSE WEIGHT FOR MONEY ONLY IF OVER-WEIGHT: MARGINAL 

INTEGRATION FOR SEMI-LINEAR PANEL MODELS 

Myoung-jae Lee, Korea University 

Co-Author: Kamhon Kan, Academia Sinica 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jack Porter, University of Wisconsin 

REGRESSION TOWARDS THE MODE 

Gordon Kemp, University of Essex 

Co-Author: Joao Santos Silva, University of Essex 

REGRESSION VERSUS VARIANCE TESTS FOR SOCIAL 

INTERACTIONS 

Hisatoshi Tanaka, School of Political Science and Economics, Waseda 

Univ 

IMPOSSIBILITY RESULTS FOR NONDIFFERENTIABLE 

FUNCTIONALS 

Jack Porter, University of Wisconsin 

Co-Author: Keisuke Hirano, University of Arizona 

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMETRICS II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Hyungsik Moon Moon, University of 

Southern California 

VECTOR AUTOREGRESIVE MOVING AVERAGE IDENTIFICATION 

FOR MACROECONOMIC MODELING: ALGORITHMS AND THEORY 

Don Poskitt, Monash University 

THE ANALYTICS OF THE SIGN RESTRICTION APPROACH TO 

SHOCK IDENTIFICATION: A FRAMEWORK FOR UNDERSTANDING 

THE EMPIRICAL MACRO PUZZLES 

Christophe Kamps, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: Dario Caldara, IIES, Stockholm University 

INFERENCE FOR VARS IDENTIFIED WITH SIGN RESTRICTIONS 

Hyungsik Moon Moon, University of Southern California 

11:15 - 12:45 PANEL DATA (ECO) 

Chairperson: Kentaro Akashi, The Institute of 

Statistical Mathematics 

PANEL GROWTH REGRESSIONS WITH GENERAL 

PREDETERMINED VARIABLES: LIKELIHOOD-BASED ESTIMATION 

AND BAYESIAN AVERAGING 

Enrique Moral-Benito, CEMFI 

THE TIME SERIES AND CROSS-SECTION ASYMPTOTICS OF 

EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATOR IN DYNAMIC PANEL DATA 

MODELS 

Gunce Eryuruk, Assistant Professor 

THE LIMITED INFORMATION MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD APPROACH 

TO DYNAMIC PANEL STRUCTURAL EQUATIONS 

Kentaro Akashi, The Institute of Statistical Mathematics 

Room 5B 

Room 5C 

Room 5F

Co-Author: Naoto Kunitomo, University of Tokyo 

11:15 - 12:45 UNIT ROOTS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Morten Nielsen, Queen's University 

TESTING FOR UNIT ROOTS IN THE PRESENCE OF A POSSIBLE 

BREAK IN TREND AND NON-STATIONARY VOLATILITY 

David Harvey, University of Nottingham 

Co-Authors: Giuseppe Cavaliere, University of Bologna, Stephen 

Leybourne, University of Nottingham and Robert Taylor, University of 

Nottingham 

UNIT ROOT TESTS WITH WAVELETS 

Ramo Gencay, Simon Fraser University 

Co-Author: Yanqin Fan, Vanderbilt University 

NEARLY EFFICIENT LIKELIHOOD RATIO TESTS OF THE UNIT 

ROOT HYPOTHESIS 

Morten Nielsen, Queen's University 

Co-Author: Michael Jansson, UC Berkeley 

11:15 - 12:45 MEASUREMENT ERROR (ECO) 

Chairperson: Asger Lunde, School of Economics 

and Management, Aarhus University 

WELL-POSEDNESS OF MEASUREMENT ERROR MODELS FOR 

SELF-REPORTED DATA 

Yingyao Hu, Johns Hopkins University 

Co-Author: Yonghong An, Johns Hopkins 

TWO-STEP ESTIMATION OF A SINGLE REGRESSOR ERRORS-IN- 

VARIABLE MODEL WITH CORRELATED MEASUREMENT ERRORS 

Qing Li, University of Lausanne 

ESTIMATING THE PERSISTENCE AND THE AUTOCORRELATION 

FUNCTION OF A TIME SERIES THAT IS MEASURED WITH ERROR 

Asger Lunde, School of Economics and Management, Aarhus University 

Co-Author: Peter Reinhard Hansen, Stanford University, department of 

Economics 

13:00 - 14:00 POLICY SESSION 

13:00 - 14:00 PLENARY POLICY PANEL I 

Chairperson: Sir James Mirrlees, Chinese University 

of Hong Kong 

Room 5H 

Room 5I 


MIRRLEES REVIEW: REFORMING THE TAX SYSTEM FOR THE 21ST 

CENTURY 

Richard Blundell, University College London, Steve Bond, University of 

Oxford, Roger Gordon, UCSD and Guy Laroque, INSEE-CREST and 

University College London 


14:15 - 16:15 GEOGRAPHY, CULTURE, AND GROWTH IN 

COMPARATIVE PERSPECTIVE (HIS) 

Room Gran Melia F5

Chairperson: William Collins, Vanderbilt University 

CITY SEEDS: THE GEOGRAPHICAL ORIGINS OF EUROPEAN 

CITIES 

Maarten Bosker, Groningen University / Utrecht University 

Co-Author: Eltjo Buringh, Utrecht University 

RELIGION OR KNOWLEDGE DIFFUSION: A PROTESTANT 

ECONOMIC HISTORY OF CHINA, 1840-1920 

Kai-sing Kung, Hong Kong University of Science & Technology 

Co-Author: Ying Bai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

DIALECTS, CULTURAL IDENTITY, AND ECONOMIC EXCHANGE 

Stephan Heblich, Max Planck Institute of Economics 

Co-Authors: Oliver Falck, Ifo Institute for Economic Research, Alfred 

Lameli, Research Centre Deutscher Sprachatlas and Jens Suedekum, 

Mercator School of Management, University of Duisburg-Essen 

SLUM CLEARANCE AND URBAN RENEWAL IN THE UNITED 

STATES, 1949 TO 1974 

William Collins, Vanderbilt University 

Co-Author: Katharine Shester, Vanderbilt University 

14:15 - 16:15 COLLECTIVE AND COOPERATIVE DECISION 

MAKING (THY) 

Chairperson: Ramon Caminal, Institut d''Anàlisi 

Econòmica, CSIC 

COLLECTIVE DECISION MAKING WITH TIME PREFERENCES 

Matthew Jackson, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Leeat Yariv, California Institute of Technology 

STABLE SETS IN MULTI-GOOD PILLAGE GAMES ARE SMALL 

Colin Rowat, University of Birmingham 

Co-Authors: Alan Beardon, University of Cambridge and Colin Rowat, 

University of Birmingham 

BARGAINING, VALUES AND IMPLEMENTATION WITH 

COALITIONAL EXTERNALITIES 

Yuan Ju, University of York 

Co-Authors: Peter Borm, Tilburg University and David Wettstein, Ben- 

Gurion University of the Negev 


THREE IS A CROWD: A NEW COOPERATIVE SOLUTION CONCEPT 

FOR THREE-PLAYER GAMES THAT TAKES PARALLEL, 

BILATERAL NEGOTIATIONS TO THE CENTER STAGE 

Ramon Caminal, Institut d''Anàlisi Econòmica, CSIC 

Co-Author: Roberto Burguet, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) 

14:15 - 16:15 INSURANCE (THY) 

Chairperson: Hanming Fang, University of 

Pennsylvania 

ENDOGENOUS INSOLVENCY RISK IN INSURANCE MARKETS WITH 

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION 

Wanda Mimra, University of Cologne 

Co-Author: Achim Wambach, University of Cologne 

Room 3A

OPTIMAL INSURANCE WITH ADVERSE SELECTION 

Edward Schlee, Arizona State University 

Co-Author: Hector Chade, Arizona State University 

EFFICIENT INTERTEMPORAL ALLOCATION 

Eiichiro Kazumori, SUNY 

Co-Author: Robert Wilson, Stanford University 

HOW DOES LIFE SETTLEMENT AFFECT THE PRIMARY LIFE 

INSURANCE MARKET? 

Hanming Fang, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Edward Kung, Duke University 

14:15 - 16:15 MECHANISM DESIGN II (THY) 

Chairperson: John Ledyard, Caltech 

MULTI-DIMENSIONAL MECHANISMS WITH ONE-DIMENSIONAL 

ALLOCATION SPACE 

Severinov Sergei, University of Brtish Columbia 

Co-Author: Raymond Deneckere, University of Wisconsin 

OPTIMAL SELLING MECHANISMS ON INCENTIVE GRAPHS 

Itai Sher, University of Minnesota 

Co-Author: Rakesh Vohra, Northwestern University 

ROBERTS' THEOREM WITH NEUTRALITY: A SOCIAL WELFARE 

ORDERING APPROACH 

Debasis Mishra, Indian Statistical Institute 

Co-Author: Arunava Sen, Indian Statistical Institute 

NEUROMETRICALLY AUGMENTED MECHANISMS OVERCOME 

FUNDAMENTAL IMPOSSIBILITY RESULTS IN MECHANISM DESIGN 

John Ledyard, Caltech 

Co-Authors: Colin Camerer, California Institute of Technology, Ian 

Krajbich, Caltech and Antonio Rangel, 

14:15 - 16:15 DECISION THEORY II (THY) 

Chairperson: Agatha Murgoci, Copenhagen Busines 

School 

REVEALED ATTENTION 

Daisuke Nakajima, University of Michigan 

Co-Authors: Yusufcan Mastlioglu, and Erkut Ozbay, 

MENU-DEPENDENT SELF-CONTROL 

Norio Takeoka, Faculty of Economics, Yokohama National University 

Co-Author: jawwad Noor, Department of Economics, Boston University 

TEMPTATION, ATTRACTION, AND COMPROMISE 

Madhav Chandrasekher, Arizona State University 

A GENERAL THEORY OF MARKOVIAN TIME INCONSISTENT 

STOCHASTIC CONTROL PROBLEMS 

Agatha Murgoci, Copenhagen Busines School 

Co-Author: Tomas Bjork, Stockholm School of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 COMMUNICATION III (THY) 

Chairperson: Andreas Blume, University of 

Room 3C 

Room 3D 

Room 3I

Pittsburgh 

COMMUNICATION, TIMING, AND COMMON LEARNING 

Jakub Steiner, Northwestern University 

Co-Author: colin stewart, Toronto university 

WAIT AND SEE: A THEORY OF COMMUNICATION OVER TIME 

Peter Eso, University of Oxford 

Co-Author: Fong Yuk-fai, Northwestern University 

IMPLEMENTATION WITH EVIDENCE: COMPLETE INFORMATION 

Navin Kartik, Columbia University 

Co-Author: Olivier Tercieux, Paris School of Economics 

LANGUAGE BARRIERS 

Andreas Blume, University of Pittsburgh 

14:15 - 16:15 INDIVIDUAL CHOICE BEHAVIOR: MODELS AND 

EXPERIMENTS (EXP) 

Chairperson: Xiaojian Zhao, Hong Kong University 

of Science and Technology - University of 

Mannheim 

TEMPTATION AND COMMITMENT IN THE LABORATORY 

Joachim Winter, University of Munich 

Co-Authors: Daniel Houser, George Mason University, Daniel Schunk, 

Department of Economics, University of Zurich and Erte Xiao, Carnegie 

Mellon University 

A FLEXIBLE TEST FOR PRESENT BIAS AND TIME PREFERENCES 

USING GROUND LEASE CONTRACTS 

Aico van Vuuren, VU University Amsterdam 

Co-Author: Pieter Gautier, VU University Amsterdam 

GETTING IT RIGHT THE FIRST TIME: BELIEF ELICITATION WITH 

NOVICE PARTICIPANTS 

Daniel Houser, George Mason University 

Co-Author: Li Hao, Economics, George Mason University 

SELF-ESTEEM, SHAME AND PERSONAL MOTIVATION 

Xiaojian Zhao, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology - 

University of Mannheim 

Co-Author: Roberta Dessi, Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ 

and IDEI) and CEPR 

14:15 - 16:15 CONTRACT THEORY II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Lei Lu, Shanghai University of Finance 

and Economics 

SOCIAL VALUE OF INFORMATION IN A LEVERED ECONOMY 

VITO GALA, LONDON BUSINESS SCHOOL 

Co-Author: Paolo Volpin, London Business School 

OPTIMAL RESOLUTION OF FINANCIAL DISTRESS: A DYNAMIC 

CONTRACTING APPROACH 

Thi Quynh Anh Vo, Central Bank of Norway 

LEARNING IN DYNAMIC INCENTIVE CONTRACTS 

Room 3B 

Room 5A

Yuliy Sannikov, Princeton University 

Co-Author: Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University 

ENFORCEMENT AND THE EFFECTIVENESS OF LAWS AND 

REGULATIONS 

Lei Lu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Authors: Ke Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics and 

Jun Qian, Boston College 

14:15 - 16:15 FINANCE AND THE FIRM II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Morten Bennedsen, INSEAD 

THE IMPACT OF FOREIGN GOVERNMENT INVESTMENTS: 

SOVEREIGN WEALTH FUND INVESTMENTS IN THE U.S. 

Elvira Sojli, RSM, Erasmus University 

Co-Author: Wing Wah Tham, ESE, Erasmus University 

INTEREST RATES IN TRADE CREDIT MARKETS 

Humberto Moreira, Fundação Getulio Vargas 

Co-Authors: Klenio Barbosa, Toulouse School of Economics and Walter 

Novaes, Department of Economics at PUC-Rio 

WHY ARE FAMILY FIRMS SO SMALL ? 

Laurent Bach, Paris School of Economics 

POLITICAL REFORMS AND THE CAUSAL IMPACT OF BLOOD- 

RELATED POLITICIANS ON CORPORATE PERFORMANCE IN THE 

WORLD’S LEAST CORRUPT SOCIETY 

Morten Bennedsen, INSEAD 

Co-Author: Mario D Amore, INSEAD 

14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING III (FIN) 

Chairperson: Hengjie Ai, Fuqua School of Business, 

Duke 

CROSS-SECTIONAL ASSET PRICING PUZZLES: AN EQUILIBRIUM 

PERSPECTIVEY 

Scott Cederburg, Univ of Iowa 

Co-Authors: Doron Avramov, Univ of Maryland and Satadru Hore, 

Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

OPTIMAL PORTFOLIO ALLOCATIONS WITH HEDGE FUNDS 

Jerome Detemple, Boston University 

Co-Authors: Rene Garcia, EDHEC and Marcel Rindisbacher, Boston 

University 

A STOCHASTIC DISCOUNT FACTOR APPROACH TO ASSET 

PRICING USING PANEL DATA ASYMPTOTICS 

Joao Issler, Graduate School of Economics -- EPGE, Getulio Vargas 

Foundation 

Co-Author: Fabio Araujo, Princeton University 

TOWARD A QUANTITATIVE GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ASSET 

PRICING MODEL WITH INTANGIBLE CAPITAL 

Hengjie Ai, Fuqua School of Business, Duke 

Co-Author: Mariano Croce, UNC, Chapel Hill 

Room 5B 

Room 5C 

14:15 - 16:15 AUCTIONS: EMPIRICAL MODELS (IND) Room 3E

Chairperson: Francesco Decarolis, University of 

Wisconsin Madison 

SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN MODELS OF FIRST-PRICE, 

SEALED-BID AUCTIONS WITH AFFILIATION 

Timothy Hubbard, Texas Tech University 

Co-Authors: Tong Li, Vanderbilt University and Harry Paarsch, The 

University of Melbourne 

NONPARAMETRIC METHODS FOR ASCENDING AUCTIONS WITH 

UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY 

Daniel Quint, University of Wisconsin 

Co-Authors: Andres Aradillas-Lopez, University of Wisconsin, Madison 

and Amit Gandhi, University of Wisconsin 

AFFILIATION AND ENTRY IN FIRST-PRICE AUCTIONS WITH 

HETEROGENEOUS BIDDERS 

Bingyu Zhang, National University of Singapore 

Co-Author: Tong Li, Vanderbilt University 

WHEN THE HIGHEST BIDDER LOSES THE AUCTION: THEORY AND 

EVIDENCE FROM PUBLIC PROCUREMENT 

Francesco Decarolis, University of Wisconsin Madison 

14:15 - 16:15 PRINCIPLE-AGENT RELATIONSHIP: THEORY 

(IND) 

Chairperson: Frédéric Loss, Conservatoire National 

des Arts et Métiers 

WHO DECIDES ABOUT CHANGE AND RESTRUCTING IN 

ORGANIZATIONS? 

Andrew Wait, University of Sydney 

Co-Author: Kieron Meagher, Australian National University 

FREE-RIDING IN PROCUREMENT DESIGN 

Klenio Barbosa, Toulouse School of Economics 

TRADE OF BAD REPUTATION AND COST OF CORPORATE 

CONTROL 

Fong Yuk-fai, Northwestern University 

Co-Authors: Pak Hung Au, Northwestern University and Jin Li, 

PROJECT CHOICES BY WAGE-EARNERS WILLING TO BECOME 

ENTREPRENEURS 

Frédéric Loss, Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers 

Co-Author: Antoine Renucci, UPPA 

14:15 - 16:15 ECONOMIC GEOGRAPHY (INT) 

Chairperson: Daniel Sturm, London School of 

Economics 

Room 3J 


A SPATIAL NETWORK APPROACH TO URBAN CONFIGURATIONS 

Fan-chin Kung, City University of Hong Kong 

Co-Author: Ping Wang, Washington University in St. Louis 

ENTREPRENEURIAL LAND DEVELOPERS: LOCAL EXTERNALITIES 

AND MIXED HOUSING DEVELOPMENTS

Hideo Konishi, Boston College 

THE GEOGRAPHY OF CONSUMER PRICES 

Attila Ratfai, Central European University 

Co-Author: Adam Reiff, National Bank of Hungary 

THE ECONOMICS OF DENSITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE BERLIN 

WALL 

Daniel Sturm, London School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Gabriel Ahlfeldt, London School of Economics, Stephen 

Redding, London School of Economics and Nikolaus Wolf, Warwick 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS II (INT) 

Chairperson: Mingyi Kang, Department of 

Economics, University of Minnesota 

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, NANCIAL INTEGRATION AND THE 

INTERNATIONAL PROPAGATION OF SHOCKS 

Giovanni Lombardo, European Central bank 

Co-Author: Luca Dedola, European Central Bank 

FRICTIONS, HETEROGENEOUS PREFERENCES AND 

INTERNATIONAL CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING 

Meixin Guo, University of California, Davis 


COINTEGRATED TFP PROCESSES AND INTERNATIONAL 

BUSINESS CYCLES 

Pau Rabanal, International Monetary Fund 

Co-Authors: Juan Rubio-Ramirez, Duke University and Atlanta Fed and 

Vicente Tuesta, CENTRUM Catolica 

LEADING AND LAGGING RELATIONSHIPS IN INTERNATIONAL 

BUSINESS CYCLES 

Mingyi Kang, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota 

14:15 - 16:15 EARLY CHILDHOOD INTERVENTIONS (LAB) 

Chairperson: Gabriella Conti, University of Chicago 


UNDERSTANDING THE MECHANISMS THROUGH WHICH AN 

INFLUENTIAL EARLY CHILDHOOD PROGRAM BOOSTED ADULT 

OUTCOMES 

Peter Savelyev, The University of Chicago, Department of Economics 

Co-Authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago, Lena Malofeeva, 

University of Arizona and Pinto Rodrigo, University of Chicago 

THE IMPACT OF IODINE DEFICIENCY ERADICATION ON 

SCHOOLING: EVIDENCE FROM THE INTRODUCTION OF IODIZED 

SALT IN SWITZERLAND 

Dimitra Politi, University of Edinburgh 

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF CHILD CARE CHOICES, MATERNAL 

TIME AND CHILD’S COGNITIVE DEVELOPMENT FOR SINGLE 

MOTHERS IN THE U.S. 

Raquel Bernal, Universidad de los Andes 

Co-Author: Michael Keane, University of Technology Sydney 

EARLY ENDOWMENTS, EDUCATION AND HEALTH

Gabriella Conti, University of Chicago 

Co-Authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago and Sergio Urzua, 


14:15 - 16:15 HEALTH III (LAB) 

Chairperson: Enrica Croda, Ca' Foscari University of 

Venice 

THE EFFECT OF JOB LOSS DUE TO PLANT CLOSURE ON 

MORTALITY AND HOSPITALIZATION 

Eskil Heinesen, Danish Institute of Governmental Research 

Co-Author: Martin Browning, Oxford University 

THE EFFECT OF PRIVATE HEALTH INSURANCE ON MEDICAL 

CARE UTILIZATION AND SELF-ASSESSED HEALTH IN GERMANY 

Patrick Hullegie, Tilburg University 

Co-Author: Tobias Klein, Tilburg University 

THE IMPACT OF COMPETITION ON MANAGEMENT PRACTICES IN 

PUBLIC HOSPITALS 

Seiler Stephan, London School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Nicholas Bloom, Stanford University, Carol Propper, Imperial 

College, CMPO University of Bristol, CEPR and John Van Reenen, 

London School of Economics 

DISABILITY INSURANCE AND HEALTH IN EUROPE AND THE US 

Enrica Croda, Ca' Foscari University of Venice 

Co-Author: JONATHAN SKINNER, DARTMOUTH COLLEGE - 

DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS 

14:15 - 16:15 RETIREMENT (LAB) 

Chairperson: Maria Casanova, UCLA 

Room 3H 


CAREGIVING TO ELDERLY PARENTS AND EMPLOYMENT STATUS 

OF EUROPEAN MATURE WOMEN 

Laura Crespo, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Pedro Mira, CEMFI 

CHANGES IN CONSUMPTION AT RETIREMENT: EVIDENCE FROM 

PANEL DATA 

Emma Aguila, RAND 

Co-Authors: Orazio Attanasio, UCL and Costas Meghir, UCL 

RETIREMENT RESPONSES TO A GENEROUS PENSION REFORM: 

EVIDENCE FROM A NATURAL EXPERIMENT IN EASTERN EUROPE 

Alexander Danzer, Royal Holloway, University of London, UK 

THE WAGE PROCESS OF OLDER WORKERS 

Maria Casanova, UCLA 

14:15 - 16:15 GROWTH EMPIRICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Fabrice Murtin, OECD 


ON THE CONDITIONAL EFFECT OF IMF PROGRAM PARTICIPATION 

ON ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt, Chair for International 

Macroeconomics & Macroeconometrics

AN ECONOMETRIC APPROACH TO THE CONSTRUCTION OF 

COMPLETE PANELS OF PURCHASING POWER PARITIES: 

ANALYTICAL PROPERTIES AND EMPIRICAL RESULTS 

Alicia Rambaldi, The University of Queensland 

Co-Authors: Howard Doran, The University of Queensland and D. S. 

Prasada Rao, The University of Queensland 

A CONTRIBUTION TO THE SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH THEORY 

AND EMPIRICS 

Cem Ertur, LEO - Université d'Orléans 

Co-Author: Wilfried Koch, LEG - Université de Bourgogne 

THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HEALTH AND GROWTH 

Fabrice Murtin, OECD 

Co-Authors: Philippe Aghion, Harvard University and Peter Howitt, Brown 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 DYNAMIC TAXATION (MAX) 

Chairperson: Yang Lu, European University Institute 

A CHARACTERIZATION OF OPTIMAL CONTRACTS WITH ONE- 

SIDED COMMITMENT 

Yuzhe Zhang, Economics Department, University of Iowa 

OPTIMAL TAXATION AND CONSTRAINED INEFFICIENCY IN AN 

INFINITE-HORIZON ECONOMY WITH INCOMPLETE MARKETS 

Tomoyuki Nakajima, Kyoto University 

Co-Authors: Piero Gottardi, European University Institute and Atsushi 

Kajii, Kyoto University 

OPTIMAL DYNAMIC TAXES 

Maxim Troshkin, University of Minnesota 

Co-Authors: Mike Golosov, and Aleh Tsyvinski, 

CREDIBILITY CONCERNS IN OPTIMAL POLICY DESIGN 

Yang Lu, European University Institute 

14:15 - 16:15 MONETARY POLICY II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Nathan Porter, International Monetary 

Fund 



HOW BETTER MONETARY STATISTICS COULD HAVE SIGNALED 

THE FINANCIAL CRISIS 

William Barnett, University of Kansas 

Co-Author: Marcelle Chauvet, University of California at Riverside 

CREDIT CONTROLS DID MATTER. AN EVALUATION OF MONETARY 

POLICY DURING FRANCE’S GOLDEN AGE, 1945-1973. 

Eric Monnet, Paris School of Economics 

DOES THE ACCUMULATION OF INTERNATIONAL RESERVES SPUR 

INFLATION? A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS 

Andreas Steiner, University of Osnabrueck 

WHAT DRIVES CHINA’S INTERBANK MARKET? 

Nathan Porter, International Monetary Fund 

Co-Author: TengTeng Xu, Cambridge University

14:15 - 16:15 OPTIMAL TAX AND TRANSFER POLICY (PUB) 

Chairperson: Jean-Baptiste Michau, Centre for 

Economic Performance, London School of 

Economics 

OPTIMAL POLICIES AND THE INFORMAL SECTOR 

Joanne Roberts, University of Calgary 

Co-Authors: Katherine Cuff, McMaster University, Nicolas Marceau, 

Universite de Quebec a Montreal and Steeve Mongrain, Simon Fraser 

University 

ON OPTIMAL CORPORATE INCOME TAX 

C. C. Yang, Academia Sinica 

Co-Author: Kevin Hsu, National Chengchi University 

COMPETITIVE NONLINEAR TAXATION, INCOME INEQUALITY, AND 

CONSTITUTIONAL CHOICE 

Huanxing Yang, Ohio State University 

Co-Authors: Massimo Morelli, Columbia University and EUI and Lixin Ye, 

The Ohio State University 

DYNAMIC OPTIMAL REDISTRIBUTIVE TAXATION WITH 

ENDOGENOUS RETIREMENT 

Jean-Baptiste Michau, Centre for Economic Performance, London 


14:15 - 16:15 CLIMATE, HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT I (DEV) 

Chairperson: James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank 

of New York 

THE LONG-LIVED EFFECTS OF HISTORIC CLIMATE UPON THE 

WEALTH OF NATIONS 

Michael Vlassopoulos, University of Southampton 

Co-Authors: John Bluedorn, University of Southampton and Akos 

Valentinyi, Magyar Nemzeti Bank 

Room 3G 


WHERE THERE IS A WILL: FERTILITY BEHAVIOR AND SEX BIAS IN 

LARGE FAMILIES 

Tarun Jain, Indian School of Business 

DO TROPICAL TYPHOONS SMASH THE COMMUNITY TIES? 

THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM VIETNAM 

Yanos Zylberberg, Paris School of Economics 

FORECASTING WHEN IT MATTERS: EVIDENCE FROM SEMI-ARID 

INDIA 

James Vickery, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

Co-Authors: Xavier Gine, World Bank and Robert Townsend, MIT 

14:15 - 16:15 GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT II (DEV) 

Chairperson: Roman Zakharenko, State University 

Higher School of Economics 

CREDIT MARKET IMPERFECTIONS, SELECTION, AND THE 

DISTRIBUTION OF WITHIN-INDUSTRY PRODUCTIVITY 

Christian Bauer, LMU University of Munich 

ADVERSE SELECTION IN ASSET MARKETS: THEORY AND 

Room Gran Melia F3

EVIDENCE FROM THE INDIAN MARKET FOR COWS 

Santosh Anagol, Wharton 

FACTOR MISALLOCATION IN DUAL ECONOMIES 

Thomas Schelkle, London School of Economics 

CHILDREN VERSUS IDEAS: AN "INFLUENTIAL" THEORY OF 

DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSITION 

Roman Zakharenko, State University Higher School of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 FORECASTING (ECO) 

Chairperson: Helmut Luetkepohl, European 

University Institute 

MACROECONOMIC FORECASTING AND STRUCTURAL CHANGE 

Antonello D''agostino, Central Bank of Ireland 

Co-Authors: Luca Gambetti, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona and 

Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR 

Room Yangtze Hall 

MEASURING AGGREGATE UNCERTAINTY IN A PANEL OF 

FORECASTS AND A NEW TEST FOR FORECAST HETEROGENEITY 

Kajal Lahiri, University at Albany, SUNY-Albany 

Co-Authors: Huaming Peng, SUNY-Albany and Xuguang Sheng, SUNY 

Fredonia 

FORECAST EVALUATION OF SMALL NESTED MODEL SETS 

Kirstin Hubrich, European Central Bank, Research Department 

Co-Author: Kenneth D. West, University of Wisconsin 

FORECASTING AGGREGATES WITH STOCHASTIC AGGREGATION 

WEIGHTS 

Helmut Luetkepohl, European University Institute 

14:15 - 16:15 PANEL DATA AND CROSS-SECTIONAL 

DEPENDENCE (ECO) 

Chairperson: Vasilis Sarafidis, University of Sydney 

A NONPARAMETRIC POOLABILITY TEST FOR PANEL DATA 

MODELS WITH CROSS SECTION DEPENDENCE 

Sainan Jin, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Liangjun Su, Singaproe Management University 

INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC LINEAR 

PANEL DATA MODELS WITH DEFACTORED REGRESSORS UNDER 

CROSS-SECTIONAL DEPENDENCE 

Takashi Yamagata, University of York 

Co-Author: Vasilis Sarafidis, University of Sydney 

A NONLINEAR PANEL MODEL OF HERDING 

Yongcheol Shin, Business School, University of Leeds 

Co-Authors: george kapetanios, queen mary, university of london and 

james mitchell, niesr 

IV ESTIMATION OF PANELS WITH FACTOR RESIDUALS 

Vasilis Sarafidis, University of Sydney 

Co-Authors: Donald Robertson, The University of Cambridge and James 

Symons, UCL (emeritus) 

Room 5D

14:15 - 16:15 BAYESIAN METHODS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Herman van Dijk, Tinbergen Institute, 

Erasmus University Rotterdam 

BAYESIAN LINK PREDICTION IN NETWORK STRUCTURES 

Martin Burda, University of Toronto 

Co-Authors: Siddhartha Chib, Washington University in St. Louis and 

Matthew Harding, Stanford University 

REGULARIZING PRIORS FOR LINEAR INVERSE PROBLEMS 

Anna Simoni, Università Bocconi 

Co-Author: Jean-Pierre Florens, Toulouse School of Economics 

APPROXIMATION OF CONDITIONAL DENSITIES BY SMOOTH 

MIXTURES OF REGRESSIONS 

Andriy Norets, Princeton University 

ADAPTIVE EXPECTATION MAXIMIZATION SAMPLING METHODS 

FOR EFFICIENT AND RELIABLE POSTERIOR AND PREDICTIVE 

SIMULATION 

Herman van Dijk, Tinbergen Institute, Erasmus University Rotterdam 

Co-Authors: Lennart Hoogerheide, Econometric and TInbergen Institute, 

Erasmus University Rotterdam and Anne Opschoor, Tinbergen Institute, 

Erasmus University Rotterdam 

14:15 - 16:15 STRUCTURAL DISCRETE CHOICE MODELS 

(ECO) 

Chairperson: Juan Pantano, Washington University 

in St. Louis 

INTERACTIVE FIXED EFFECTS IN THE BLP RANDOM 

COEFFICIENTS DEMAND MODEL 

Martin Weidner, University of Southern California 

UNDERSTANDING CHOICE INTENSITY: A POISSON MIXTURE 

MODEL WITH LOGIT-BASED RANDOM UTILITY SELECTIVE MIXING 

Matthew Harding, Stanford University 

Co-Authors: Martin Burda, University of Toronto and Jerry Hausman, MIT 

LARGE MARKET ASYMPTOTICS FOR DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT 

DEMAND ESTIMATORS UNDER ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUPPLY 

Timothy Armstrong, Stanford University 

USING SUBJECTIVE EXPECTATIONS DATA TO ALLOW FOR 

UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY IN HOTZ-MILLER ESTIMATION 

STRATEGIES 

Juan Pantano, Washington University in St. Louis 

Co-Author: Yu Zheng, Washington University in St. Louis 

14:15 - 16:15 SEMI/NONPARAMETRICS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Michael Jansson, UC Berkeley 

TRIANGULAR SEMIPARAMETRIC MODELS FEATURING TWO 

DEPENDENT ENDOGENOUS BINARY OUTCOMES 

Chan Shen, Georgetown University 

Co-Authors: Roger Klein, Rutgers University and Francis Vella, 

Georgetown University 

Room 5E 

Room 5F 

Room 5H

A DISCONTINUITY TEST OF ENDOGENEITY 

Maria Carolina Caetano, University of California, Berkeley 

RANK ESTIMATION WITH CONTROL VARIABLES 

Koen Jochmans, CORE 

GENERALIZED JACKKNIFE ESTIMATORS OF WEIGHTED 

AVERAGE DERIVATIVES 

Michael Jansson, UC Berkeley 

Co-Authors: Matias Cattaneo, University of Michigan and Richard Crump, 

Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

14:15 - 16:15 VOLATILITY (ECO) 

Chairperson: Werner Ploberger, Washington 

University in St. Louis 

REALIZED GARCH: A COMPLETE MODEL OF RETURNS AND 

REALIZED MEASURES OF VOLATILITY 

Peter Reinhard Hansen, Stanford University, department of Economics 

Co-Authors: Zhuo Huang, Stanford University and Howard Howan Shek, 


GOOD VOLATILITY, BAD VOLATILITY:SIGNED JUMPS AND THE 

PERSISTENCE OF VOLATILITY 

Kevin Sheppard, University of Oxford 

Co-Author: Andrew Patton, Duke University 

STOCHASTIC COVARIANCE MODELS 

Manabu Asai, Soka University 

Co-Author: Mike So, The Hong Kong University of Science and 

Technology 

AN IMPROVED ESTIMATOR FOR THE INTEGRATED VOLATILITY 

Werner Ploberger, Washington University in St. Louis 

Co-Author: Taesuk Lee, University of Rochester 

14:15 - 16:15 FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Richard Baillie, Michigan State 

University 

THE GENERALIZED COCHRANE-ORCUTT TRANSFORMATION 

ESTIMATION FOR SPURIOUS AND FRACTIONAL SPURIOUS 

REGRESSIONS 

Shin-Huei Wang, 

Co-Author: Cheng Hsiao, University of Southern California 

MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF FRACTIONALLY 

COINTEGRATED SYSTEMS 

Katarzyna Lasak, CREATES, Aarhus University 

TESTING THE ORDER OF FRACTIONAL INTEGRATION IN PANEL 

DATA MODELS 

Fredrik Andersson, Lund University 

CONFIDENCE INTERVALS FOR IMPULSE RESPONSE WEIGHTS 

FROM STRONGLY DEPENDENT PROCESSES 

Richard Baillie, Michigan State University 

Co-Author: George Kapetanios, Queen Mary University of London 

Room 5I 

Room 5J


16:45 - 18:15 FRISCH MEMORIAL LECTURE 

Chairperson: Sir James Mirrlees, Chinese University 

of Hong Kong 

TRADE AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 

Elhanan Helpman, Harvard University 

Room Grand Ballroom

THURSDAY 19 AUGUST 2010 


09:00 - 10:45 DECISION THEORY 

Chairperson: Larry Samuelson, Yale University 

Discussant: Ran Spiegler, Tel Aviv University 

AMBIGUITY AND THE BAYESIAN PARADIGM 

Massimo Marinacci, Bocconi University 

Co-Author: Itzhak (Tzachi) Gilboa, HEC and Tel Aviv University 


TEMPTATION 

Barton Lipman, Boston University and Wolfgang Pesendorfer, Princeton 

University 

09:00 - 10:45 MACROECONOMICS 

Chairperson: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago 

Discussant: Steven Davis, University of Chicago 

AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS AND LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 

Robert Shimer, University of Chicago 


FROM WAGES TO WELFARE: DECOMPOSING GAINS AND LOSSES 

FROM RISING INEQUALITY 

Giovanni Violante, New York University 

Co-Authors: Jonathan Heathcote, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

and Kjetil Storesletten, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 

09:00 - 10:45 ECONOMETRIC THEORY 

Chairperson: Rosa Matzkin, University of California, 

Los Angeles 

Discussant: Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI 

HIGH DIMENSIONAL SPARSE ECONOMETRIC MODELS 

Victor Chernozhukov, MIT 

NONLINEAR ERRORS-IN-VARIABLES MODELS 

Susanne Schennach, University of Chicago 


11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING III (THY) 

Chairperson: Morimitsu Kurino, Max Planck Institute 

of Economics 

TIERS, PREFERENCE SIMILARITY, AND THE LIMITS ON STABLE 

PARTNERS 

Michihiro Kandori, University of Tokyo 

Co-Authors: Fuhito Kojima, Stanford University and Yosuke Yasuda, 

GRIPS 

A SEARCH MODEL OF TWO-SIDED MATCHING WITH TERMS OF 

TRADE 


Room Century Hall

Hiroyuki ADACHI, SUNY-BUFFALO 

HOUSE ALLOCATION WITH OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS: A 

DYNAMIC MECHANISM DESIGN APPROACH 

Morimitsu Kurino, Max Planck Institute of Economics 

11:15 - 12:45 IMPLEMENTATION (THY) 

Chairperson: Rudolf Müller, Maastricht University 

TRUTHFUL IMPLEMENTATION IN COMPREHENSIVE DOMAINS 

Andrew McLennan, University of Queensland 

Co-Authors: Juan Carlos Carbajal, University of Queensland and Rabee 

Tourky, University of Queensland 

PERFECT IMPLEMENTATION 

Sergei Izmalkov, New Economic School 

Co-Authors: Matt Lepinski, BBN Technologies and Silvio Micali, MIT 

PATH-MONOTONICITY AND TRUTHFUL IMPLEMENTATION 

Rudolf Müller, Maastricht University 

11:15 - 12:45 AUCTIONS III (THY) 

Chairperson: Roberto Burguet, Institute for 

Economic Analysis (CSIC) 

SIGNAL-JAMMING IN A SEQUENTIAL AUCTION 

Wei Ding, Bonn Graduate School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Thomas D. Jeitschko, Michigan State University and Elmar 

Wolfstetter, Humboldt-University at Berlin 

INFORMATION SHARING IN CONTESTS 

Johannes Münster, Free University of Berlin 

Co-Authors: Daniel J. Kovenock, Department of Economics, University of 

Iowa and Florian Morath, Max Planck Research Center for Tax Law and 

Public Finance 

LIMITED LIABILITY AND MECHANISM DESIGN IN PROCUREMENT 

Roberto Burguet, Institute for Economic Analysis (CSIC) 

Co-Authors: juanjo ganuza, universitat pompeu fabra and Esther Hauk, 

institute for economic analysis (CSIC) 

11:15 - 12:45 CONSUMER SEARCH (THY) 

Chairperson: Tianle Zhang, University of Colorado 

at Boulder 

OLIGOPOLISTIC SEARCH MARKETS WITH COSTLY SECOND 

VISITS 

Alexei Parakhonyak, Tinbergen Institute 

Co-Author: Maarten Janssen, University of Vienna 

OLIGOPOLISTIC MARKETS WITH SEQUENTIAL SEARCH AND 

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION 

Maarten Janssen, University of Vienna 

Co-Authors: Paul Pichler, and Simon Weidenholzer, 

EQUILIBRIUM PRICE DISPERSION WITH HETEROGENEOUS 

SEARCHERS 

Tianle Zhang, University of Colorado at Boulder 

Room 3A 

Room 3C 

Room 3D

11:15 - 12:45 OPTIMAL STOPPING (THY) 

Chairperson: Bruno Strulovici, Northwestern 

University 

GAMBLING IN DYNAMIC CONTESTS 

Philipp Strack, University of Bonn 

Co-Author: Christian Seel, University of Bonn 

UNDISCOUNTED BANDIT PROBLEMS 

Godfrey Keller, Dept. of Economics, Univ. of Oxford 

Co-Author: Sven Rady, Dept. of Economics, Univ. of Munich 

DISCOUNTING AND PATIENCE IN OPTIMAL STOPPING AND 

CONTROL PROBLEMS 

Bruno Strulovici, Northwestern University 

Co-Author: John Quah, Oxford University 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON REWARDS AND INCENTIVES 

(EXP) 

Chairperson: Tor Eriksson, Aarhus University 

AN EXPERIMENTAL TEST OF THE DETERRENCE HYPOTHESIS 

Hannah Schildberg-Hoerisch, University of Bonn 

Co-Author: Christina Strassmair, University of Munich 

WHEN WORKERS DO NOT KNOW- ASYMETRIC KNOWLEDGE OF 

MINIMUM WAGE LAWS AND MINIMUM WAGE LEVELS 

Wang Xianghong, Renmin University of China 

RESPECT AS AN INCENTIVE 

Tor Eriksson, Aarhus University 

11:15 - 12:45 OPTIONS (FIN) 

Chairperson: Chin-Han Chiang, Columbia University 

PUT OPTION IMPLIED RISK-PREMIA IN GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM 

UNDER RECURSIVE PREFERENCES 

Satadru Hore, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston 

Co-Authors: Hedibert Lopes, Chicago Booth and Robert McCulloch, 

University of Texas, Austin 

REAL OPTIONS AND CONTINGENT CLAIMS ANALYSIS 

Vadim Arkin, Central Economics and Mathematics Institute 

Co-Author: Alexander Slastnikov, Central Economics and Mathematics 

Institute 

STOCK RETURNS ON OPTION EXPIRATION DATES 

Chin-Han Chiang, Columbia University 

11:15 - 12:45 CREDIT MARKETS III (FIN) 

Chairperson: Tatiana Didier, World Bank 

REGULATING BANKER COMPENSATION FOR BANK 

SUPERVISORY PURPOSES 

Edward Simpson Prescott, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 

Co-Author: Arantxa Jarque, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond 

Room 3F 

Room 3G 

Room 5A 

Room 5G

THE MECHANICS OF A GRACEFUL EXIT: INTEREST ON RESERVES 

AND SEGMENTATION IN THE FEDERAL FUNDS MARKET 

Morten Bech, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

INFORMATION ASYMMETRIES AND INSTITUTIONAL INVESTOR 

MANDATES 

Tatiana Didier, World Bank 

11:15 - 12:45 VOLATILITY I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva 

and Swiss Finance Institute 

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS OF FINANCIAL JUMPS USING 

EFFICIENT BIPOWER VARIATION 

Per Mykland, University of Oxford and University of Chicago 

Co-Author: Neil Shephard, 

HIGH FREQUENCY COVARIANCE ESTIMATES WITH NOISY AND 

ASYNCHRONOUS FINANCIAL DATA 

Dacheng Xiu, Princeton University 

Co-Authors: Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Princeton University and Jianqing Fan, 

Princeton University 

DETECTING SPURIOUS JUMPS IN HIGH FREQUENCY DATA 

Olivier Scaillet, University of Geneva and Swiss Finance Institute 

Co-Author: Pierre Bajgrowicz, University of Geneva 

11:15 - 12:45 NEW METHODS IN EMPIRICAL AUCTIONS (IND) 

Chairperson: Philippe Fevrier, CREST-LEI 


ON THE ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION OF THE TRANSACTION 

PRICE IN A CLOCK MODEL OF A MULTI-UNIT, ORAL, ASCENDING- 

PRICE AUCTION WITHIN THE COMMON-VALUE PARADIGM 

Harry Paarsch, The University of Melbourne 

Co-Authors: Han Hong, Stanford University and Pai Xu, University of 

Hong Kong 

PARTICIPATION SCREEN FOR COLLUSION IN AUCTIONS 

Janne Tukiainen, HECER 

IDENTIFICATION OF MIXTURE MODELS USING SUPPORT 

VARIATIONS 

Philippe Fevrier, CREST-LEI 

Co-Author: Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, CREST-INSEE 

11:15 - 12:45 R&D POLICY: THEORY (IND) 

Chairperson: Tong Wang, Toulouse shcool of 

Economics 

GOVERNMENT SUBSIDIES FOR RESEARCH PROGRAMS FACING 

"IF" AND "WHEN" UNCERTAINTY 

Jianjun Wu, University of Arizona 

Co-Author: David Besanko, Northwestern University, Kellogg School of 

Management 

IMPERFECT PATENT PROTECTION AND INNOVATION 

Silvana Krasteva, Texas A&M University 

Room 3H 

Room 3I

NONOBVIOUSNESS AND SCREENING 

Tong Wang, Toulouse shcool of Economics 

Co-Authors: Zonglai Kou, Fudan University and Patrick Rey, Toulouse 


11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL CRISES I (INT) 

Chairperson: Qianying Chen, Goethe University 

Frankfurt and Hong Kong Institute for Monetary 

Research 


CREDITLESS RECOVERIES 

Bin Li, International Monetary Fund 

Co-Authors: Abdul Abiad, International Monetary Fund and Giovanni 

Dell’Ariccia, International Monetary Fund and CEPR 

HOW TO EVALUATE AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM? TOWARDS A 

UNIFIED STATISTICAL FRAMEWORK FOR ASSESSING FINANCIAL 

CRISES FORECASTING METHODS. 

Bertrand Candelon, Maastricht University, School of Business and 

Economics, Department of Economics 

Co-Authors: Elena-Ivona Dumitrescu, University of Orléans, Laboratoire 

d''Economie D''Orléans UMR CNRS 6221 and Christophe Hurlin, 

University of Orléans, Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orléans UMR CNRS 

6221 

INTERNATIONAL TRANSMISSION OF BANK AND CORPORATE 

DISTRESS 

Qianying Chen, Goethe University Frankfurt and Hong Kong Institute for 

Monetary Research 

Co-Authors: Gray Dale, International Monetary Fund, Papa N¡¯Diaye, 

International Monetary Fund, Papa N¡¯Diaye, Inter, Hiroko Oura, 

International Monetary Fund and Natalia Tamirisa, International Monetary 

Fund 

11:15 - 12:45 TRADE, INNOVATION AND PRODUCTIVITY (INT) 

Chairperson: Edwin Lai, Hong Kong University of 


INNOVATION, DIFFUSION AND TRADE: THEORY AND 

MEASUREMENT 

Ana Maria Santacreu, INSEAD 

TRADE-INDUCED INDUSTRIALIZATION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Jee-Hyeong Park, Seoul National University 

INNOVATION AND PATENTABILITY REQUIREMENT IN A 

GLOBALIZED WORLD 

Edwin Lai, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

Co-Author: Davin Chor, Singapore Management University 

11:15 - 12:45 SECONDARY AND POST-SECONDARY 

SCHOOLING (LAB) 

Chairperson: Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of 

China 

VOCATIONAL SCHOOLING VERSUS APPRENTICESHIP TRAINING. 

EVIDENCE FROM VACANCY DATA 

Matthias Parey, University of Essex and Institute for Fiscal Studies 

Room 3B 

Room 5D

WHY IS FIRST BEST? RESPONSES TO INFORMATION 

AGGREGATION IN THE US NEWS COLLEGE RANKINGS 

Michael Luca, Boston University 

Co-Author: Jonathan Smith, Boston University 

HUMAN CAPITAL VS. SIGNALING: THE GERMAN REUNIFICATION 

AS A NATURAL EXPERIMENT 

Zhong Zhao, Renmin University of China 

Co-Author: Ulf Rinne, IZA 

11:15 - 12:45 CITIES AND SORTING (LAB) 

Chairperson: Yannis Ioannides, Tufts University 

UNEVEN LANDSCAPE AND CITY SIZE DISTRIBUTION 

Qiang Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Author: Sanghoon Lee, Sauder School of Business, the University of 

British Columbia 

THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA: CULTURAL AMENITIES, HUMAN 

CAPITAL, AND REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Oliver Falck, Ifo Institute for Economic Research 

Co-Authors: Michael Fritsch, University of Jena and Stephan Heblich, 

Max Planck Institute of Economics 

LABOR TURNOVER AND URBAN STRUCTURE 

Yannis Ioannides, Tufts University 

11:15 - 12:45 LABOR CONTRACTS I (LAB) 

Chairperson: Jeanine Miklos-Thal, Simon School, 

University of Rochester 

HOW GREEN WAS MY VALLEY? COERCIVE CONTRACT 

ENFORCEMENT IN 19TH CENTURY INDUSTRIAL BRITAIN 

Noam Yuchtman, Harvard University 

Co-Author: Suresh Naidu, Harvard University 

THE PLAINTIFF’S ROLE IN ENFORCING A COURT RULING: 

EVIDENCE FROM A LABOR COURT IN MEXICO 

Joyce Sadka, Centro de Investigacion Economica 

Co-Author: David Kaplan, World Bank 

NOMINATION CONTESTS: THEORY AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 

FROM PROFESSIONAL SOCCER 

Jeanine Miklos-Thal, Simon School, University of Rochester 

Co-Author: Hannes Ullrich, ZEW 

11:15 - 12:45 FISCAL POLICY I (MAX) 

Chairperson: Volker Grossmann, University of 

Fribourg 

FISCAL STIMULUS AND DISTORTIONARY TAXATION 

Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago 

Co-Author: Thorsten Drautzburg, University of Chicago 

ON THE IDENTIFICATION OF FISCAL POLICY BEHAVIOR 

Bing Li, Indiana University 

QUANTIFYING OPTIMAL GROWTH POLICY 

Room 5E 

Room 5F 

Room Gran Melia B1

Volker Grossmann, University of Fribourg 

Co-Authors: Thomas M. Steger, University of Leipzig and Timo Trimborn, 

University of Hannover 

11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL FRICTIONS I (MAX) 

Chairperson: La'O Jennifer, MIT 


DO CREDIT CONSTRAINTS AMPLIFY MACROECONOMIC 

FLUCTUATIONS? 

Zheng Liu, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Co-Authors: Pengfei Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and 

Technology and Tao Zha, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta and Emory 

University 

A MODEL OF MORAL-HAZARD CREDIT CYCLES 

Roger Myerson, University of Chicago 

COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND NOISY FLUCTUATIONS 

La'O Jennifer, MIT 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMIC GROWTH: EXPLAINING CROSS- 

COUNTRY INCOME DIFFERENCES (MAX) 

Chairperson: Karlygash Kuralbayeva, University of 

Oxford 


WHY ARE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES SO SLOW IN ADOPTING NEW 

TECHNOLOGIES? 

Raphael Bergoeing, Universidad de Chile 

Co-Authors: Norman Loayza, The World Bank and Facundo Piguillem, 

Einaudi Institute for Economics and Finance 

AN ACCOUNTING METHOD FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Hongchun Zhao, University of Southern California 

DE-SPECIALIZATION, DUTCH DISEASE AND SECTORAL 

PRODUCTIVITY DIFFERENCES 

Karlygash Kuralbayeva, University of Oxford 

Co-Author: Radoslaw Stefanski, University of Oxford 

11:15 - 12:45 CONSUMPTION AND RISK SHARING (MAX) 

Chairperson: Olga Gorbachev, University of 

Edinburgh 


CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE: THE 

ROLE OF SMALL FIRMS' ACCESS TO CREDIT MARKETS 

Mathias Hoffmann, International Trade and Finance, IEW, University of 

Zurich 

Co-Author: Iryna Stewen, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics 

CONSUMPTION RISK SHARING UNDER PRIVATE INFORMATION 

WHEN EARNINGS ARE PERSISTENT 

Marek Kapicka, UC Santa Barbara 

Co-Author: Paul Klein, IIES, Stockholm University 

EVOLUTION OF CONSUMPTION VOLATILITY FOR THE LIQUIDITY 

CONSTRAINED HOUSEHOLDS IN THE US OVER 1983 TO 2004. 

Olga Gorbachev, University of Edinburgh 

Co-Author: Keshav Dogra, Columbia University

11:15 - 12:45 MACROCONOMICS: ADVANCES IN VAR 

MODELING (MAX) 

Chairperson: Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB 

and CEPR 


THE ROLE OF BANK CREDIT IN THE INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS 

CYCLES: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS USING GLOBAL VAR 

TengTeng Xu, Cambridge University 

TRUSTING THE BANKERS: A NEW LOOK AT THE CREDIT 

CHANNEL OF MONETARY POLICY 

José-Luis Peydró, European Central Bank 

Co-Authors: Matteo Ciccarelli, European Central Bank and Angela 

Maddaloni, European Central Bank 

LARGE BAYESIAN VARS 

Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION II (PUB) 

Chairperson: Pao-Li Chang, Singapore 

Management University 

EFFICIENT INVESTMENT IN CHILDREN AND IMPLICATIONS FOR 

POLICY 

Hakki Yazici, Asst Prof, Sabanci Univ 

COMPETITION BETWEEN STATE UNIVERSITIES 

Luporini Annalisa, University of Florence 

EDUCATION AND TRADE 

Pao-Li Chang, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Fali Huang, Singapore Management University 

11:15 - 12:45 PUBLIC FINANCE: EMPIRICAL ISSUES I (PUB) 

Chairperson: Terence Cheng, University of 

Melbourne 

PUBLIC HOUSING UNITS VS. HOUSING VOUCHERS: 

ACCESSIBILITY, LOCAL PUBLIC GOODS, AND WELFARE 

Sinan Sarpca, Koc University 

Co-Authors: Charles Leung, City University of Hong Kong and Kuzey 

Yilmaz, Koc University 

CHANGES IN THE INCOME DISTRIBUTION OF THE DUTCH 

ELDERLY BETWEEN 1989-2020: A DYNAMIC MICROSIMULATION 

Marike Knoef, Tilburg University 

Co-Authors: Rob Alessie, Groningen University and Adriaan Kalwij, 

Utrecht University & Tilburg University 

DEMAND FOR HOSPITAL CARE AND PRIVATE HEALTH 

INSURANCE IN A MIXED PUBLIC-PRIVATE SYSTEM: EMPIRICAL 

EVIDENCE USING A SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION MODELING 

APPROACH 

Terence Cheng, University of Melbourne 

Co-Author: Farshid Vahid, Australian National University 

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY: INFORMATION AND 

ELECTIONS (POL) 

Room 3E 

Room 3J 

Room Gran Melia B4

Chairperson: Steven Callander, Stanford University 

A POLITICAL THEORY OF POPULISM 

Konstantin Sonin, New Economic School, Moscow 

Co-Authors: Daron Acemoglu, MIT and Georgy Egorov, Northwestern 

University 

STATUS QUO PROTECTION AND VOLUNTARY INFORMATION 

DISCLOSURE 

Sven Feldmann, Melbourne Business School 

WHY DOES POLITICAL POWER ALTERNATE? 

Steven Callander, Stanford University 

11:15 - 12:45 MEDIA AND POLITICS (POL) 

Chairperson: Oliver Latham, University of 

Cambridge 

MEASURING MEDIA INFLUENCE ON U.S. STATE COURTS 

Claire Lim, Stanford University 

Co-Authors: Jim Snyder, and David Stromberg, 


MEDIA PROLIFERATION WITH QUASI-RATIONAL CONSUMERS 

Daniel Stone, Oregon State University 

Co-Author: Jimmy Chan, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

LAME DUCKS AND THE MEDIA: WHY DOES THE PRESS TURN ON 

UNPOPULAR GOVERNMENTS? 

Oliver Latham, University of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 DEVELOPMENT: CONFLICT AND TRUST (DEV) 

Chairperson: Adam Szeidl, 


IMPLICATIONS OF AN ECONOMIC THEORY OF CONFLICT:HINDU- 

MUSLIM VIOLENCE IN INDIA 

Anirban Mitra, Graduate Student, New York University 

Co-Author: Debraj Ray, 

LONG-RUN LABOR-MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF CIVIL WAR: 

EVIDENCE FROM SHINING PATH IN PERU 

Jose Galdo, Carleton University and IZA 

MEASURING TRUST IN PERUVIAN SHANTYTOWNS 

Adam Szeidl, 

Co-Authors: Dean Karlan, Yale University, Markus Mobius, Harvard 

University and Tanya Rosenblat, Iowa State University 

11:15 - 12:45 TREATMENT EFFECTS I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Sergio Firpo, São Paulo School of 

Economics, FGV-SP 

NONPARAMETRIC TESTS OF CONDITIONAL TREATMENT 

EFFECTS 

Sokbae Lee, 

Co-Author: Yoon-Jae Whang, Seoul National University 


CONVEX TREATMENT RESPONSE AND TREARMENT SELECTION

Stefan Boes, University of Zurich 

BOUNDS ON FUNCTIONALS OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF 

TREATMENT EFFECTS 

Sergio Firpo, São Paulo School of Economics, FGV-SP 

Co-Author: Geert Ridder, University of Southern California 

11:15 - 12:45 PANEL DATA AND SPATIAL DEPENDENCE 

(ECO) 

Chairperson: Arnab Bhattacharjee, University of St 

Andrews 

ROBUST COVARIANCE MATRIX ESTIMATION FOR LINEAR PANEL 

MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS 

Min Seong Kim, Department of Economics, UC San Diego 

EFFICIENT GMM ESTIMATION OF SPATIAL DYNAMIC PANEL DATA 

MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS 

Jihai Yu, University of Kentucky 

Co-Author: Lung-fei Lee, Ohio State University 

UNDERSTANDING INTERACTIONS IN SOCIAL NETWORKS AND 

COMMITTEES 

Arnab Bhattacharjee, University of St Andrews 

Co-Author: Sean Holly, University of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 GARCH MODELS I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jing Wu, University of Western Ontario 

PARAMETER ESTIMATION IN NONLINEAR AR-GARCH MODELS 

Mika Meitz, Koc University 

Co-Author: Pentti Saikkonen, University of Helsinki 

NON-GAUSSIAN QUASI MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION OF 

GARCH MODELS 

Lei Qi, Princeton University 

Co-Authors: Jianqing Fan, Princeton University and Dacheng Xiu, 


THRESHOLD GARCH MODEL: THEORY AND APPLICATION 

Jing Wu, University of Western Ontario 

11:15 - 12:45 STRUCTURAL CHANGE I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Isabel Casas, CREATES, Aarhus 

University 

ASYMPTOTIC DISTRIBUTION THEORY FOR BREAK POINT 

ESTIMATORS IN MODELS ESTIMATED VIA 2SLS 

Otilia Boldea, University of Tilburg 

Co-Authors: Alastair R. Hall, University of Manchester and Sanggohn 

Han, SAS Institute 

ESTIMATING A COMMON LOCAL BREAK IN THE TIME TREND FOR 

LARGE PANEL DATA 

Dukpa Kim, University of Virginia 

UNSTABLE VOLATILITY: THE BREAK PRESERVING LOCAL 

LINEAR ESTIMATOR 

Room 5B 

Room 5C 

Room 5H

Isabel Casas, CREATES, Aarhus University 

Co-Author: Irene Gijbels, K. U. Leuven 

11:15 - 12:45 HYPOTHESIS TESTS I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Maxwell King, Monash University 

MODEL EQUIVALENCE TESTS IN A PARAMETRIC FRAMEWORK 

Pascal Lavergne, Toulouse School of Economics 

SYMBOLIC DYNAMICS TO TEST BASIC NULL HYPOTHESES 

MARIANO MATILLA-GARCIA, UNED 

Co-Authors: Fernando Lopez, Universidad Politécnica de Cartagena, 

Jesús Mur, Universidad de Zaragoza and Manuel Ruiz, Universidad 

Politécnica de Cartagena 

A NEW PROCEDURE FOR MULTIPLE TESTING OF ECONOMETRIC 

MODELS 

Maxwell King, Monash University 

Co-Authors: Muhammad Akram, Monash University and Xibin Zhang, 

Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics, Monash University 

11:15 - 12:45 SHRINKAGE METHODS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business 

School 

SHORT-TERM INFLATION PROJECTIONS: A BAYESIAN VAR 

APPROACH 

Lenza Michele, European Central Bank 

Co-Authors: Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR, Daphne 

Momferatou, European Central Bank and Luca Onorante, European 

Central Bank 

ADAPTIVE GMM SHRINKAGE ESTIMATION WITH CONSISTENT 

MOMENT SELECTION 

Zhipeng Liao, Department of Economics, Yale University 

FORECASTING USING A LARGE NUMBER OF PREDICTORS: IS 

BAYESIAN SHRINKAGE A VALID ALTERNATIVE TO PRINCIPAL 

COMPONENTS? 

Lucrezia Reichlin, London Business School 

Co-Authors: Christine De Mol, ECARES - Université Libre de Bruxelles 

and Domenico Giannone, ECARES-ULB and CEPR 


13:00 - 14:00 PLENARY POLICY PANEL II 

Chairperson: Fabrizio Zilibotti, University of Zurich 

PERSPECTIVES ON CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Justin Yifu Lin, The World Bank, Barry Naughton, UCSD, Yingyi Qian, 

University of California, Berkeley and Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia 

University 


Room 5J 

Room 5I 


14:15 - 16:15 AUCTIONS IV (THY) Room Gran Melia B1

Chairperson: Tymofiy Mylovanov, Penn State 

University 

STRATEGIC SUPPLY FUNCTION COMPETITION WITH PRIVATE 

INFORMATION 

Xavier Vives, IESE Business School and UPF 

SPLIT-AWARD AUCTIONS WITH INVESTMENT 

Jianpei Li, University of International Business and Economics 

Co-Authors: Jiong Gong, University of International Business and 

Economics and R. Preston McAfee, Yahoo! Research 

THE DYNAMICS OF PRICES IN AUCTIONS WITH FINANCIAL 

CONSTRAINTS 

Angel Hernando Veciana, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid 

Co-Author: Pablo Beker, University of Warwick - Department of 

Economics 

OPTIMAL AUCTION DESIGN AND IRRELEVANCE OF PRIVACY OF 

INFORMATION 

Tymofiy Mylovanov, Penn State University 

Co-Author: Thomas Troeger, Univeristy of Bern 

14:15 - 16:15 PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODELS I (THY) 

Chairperson: Rongzhu Ke, The Chinese University 

of HongKong 


ON THE FIRST-ORDER APPROACH IN PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODELS 

WITH HIDDEN BORROWING AND LENDING 

Sebastian Koehne, University of Mannheim 

Co-Authors: Arpad Abraham, EUI Florence and Nicola Pavoni, University 

College London 

DYNAMIC CONTRACTING WITH STOCHASTIC OUTSIDE 

OPPORTUNITIES AND COSTLY TERMINATION 

Cheng Wang, Fudan University and Iowa State University 

Co-Author: Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

REPEATED MORAL HAZARD WITH PRIVATE EVALUATION: WHY 

THE AGENT'S MIXED STRATEGIES MATTER 

Youzhi Yang, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

A FIXED-POINT METHOD FOR VALIDATING THE FIRST-ORDER 

APPROACH: NECESSARY AND SUFFICIENT CONDITION AND ITS 

IMPLICATIONS 

Rongzhu Ke, The Chinese University of HongKong 

14:15 - 16:15 HEARDING AND LEARNING (THY) 

Chairperson: David McAdams, Duke University 

INFORMATIONAL CASCADES IN FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH 

COSTLY INFORMATION 

Arina Nikandrova, University of Cambridge 


DELAY AND INFORMATION AGGREGATION IN STOPPING GAMES 

WITH PRIVATE INFORMATION 

Pauli Murto, Aalto University

Co-Author: Juuso Välimäki, Aalto University 

AGGREGATE UNCERTAINTY AND LEARNING IN A SEARCH 

MODEL 

Gabor Virag, University of Rochester 

Co-Author: Stephan Lauermann, University of Michigan 

PERFORMANCE AND TURNOVER IN A STOCHASTIC 

PARTNERSHIP 

David McAdams, Duke University 

14:15 - 16:15 MECHANISM DESIGN III (THY) 

Chairperson: Bo Chen, Economics Department, 

Southern Methodist University 

INFORMATIONAL SMALLNESS AND SCOPE FOR LIMITING 

INFORMATIONAL RENTS 

Alia Gizatulina, Max Planck Institute, Bonn 

Co-Author: Martin Hellwig, Max Planck Institute 

OPTIMAL CERTIFICATION DESIGN 

Sergei Kovbasyuk, Toulouse School of Economics 

OPTIMAL R&D PROJECT SELECTION MECHANISMS 

Sidartha Gordon, Université de Montréal 

Co-Author: Talia Bar, Cornell University 


OPTIMAL SELLING MECHANISMS WITH COUNTERVAILING 

POSITIVE EXTERNALITIES AND AN PPLICATION TO TRADABLE 

RETALIATION IN THE WTO 

Bo Chen, Economics Department, Southern Methodist University 

Co-Author: Tanapong Potipiti, Faculty of Economics, Chulalongkorn 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 EXPERIMENTS AND MARKET OUTCOMES II 

(EXP) 

Chairperson: Youxin Hu, Southwestern University of 

Finance and Economics 

A DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM APPROACH TO ASSET 

PRICING EXPERIMENTS 

John Duffy, University of Pittsburgh 

Co-Author: Sean Crockett, Baruch College (CUNY) 

SPECULATIVE OVERPRICING IN ASSET MARKETS WITH 

INFORMATION FLOWS 

Stephanie Wang, California Institute of Technology 

Co-Author: Thomas Palfrey, 


INDIVIDUAL EXPECTATION, LIMITED RATIONALITY AND 

AGGREGATE OUTCOMES 

Te Bao, CeNDEF, Department of Quantitative Economics, University of 

Amsterdam 

Co-Authors: Cars Hommes, CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam, Joep 

Sonnemans, CREED, University of Amsterdam and Jan Tuinstra, 

CeNDEF, University of Amsterdam 

BIDDING MORE AGGRESSIVELY OR FREE RIDING? THEORETICAL

AND EXPERIMENTAL ANALYSIS OF AUCTIONS WITH NEGATIVE 

EXTERNALITIES 

Youxin Hu, Southwestern University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Authors: John Kagel, Department of Economics, The Ohio State 

University and Lixin Ye, The Ohio State University 

14:15 - 16:15 BIASES AND MISTAKES (EXP) 

Chairperson: Mo Xiao, Dept. of Economics, 

University of Arizona 

CEO OVERCONFIDENCE AND INNOVATION 

Alberto Galasso, University of Toronto 

Co-Author: Timothy Simcoe, Boston University 


REFERENCE-DEPENDENT RISK PREFERENCES OF HIGHER 

ORDERS 

Johannes Maier, Munich Graduate School of Economics, University of 

Munich 

Co-Author: Maximilian Rüger, University of Augsburg 

MENTAL OVERLOAD, PRODUCTIVITY, AND DECISION-MAKING 

Anna Breman, University of Arizona 

Co-Authors: Manuela Angelucci, University of Arizona and Karina 

Cordova, University of Arizona 

WHO THINKS ABOUT THE COMPETITION? MANAGERIAL ABILITY 

AND STRATEGIC ENTRY IN US LOCAL TELEPHONE MARKETS 

Mo Xiao, Dept. of Economics, University of Arizona 

Co-Author: Avi Goldfarb, Dept. of Marketing, University of Toronto 

14:15 - 16:15 CREDIT MARKETS IV (FIN) 

Chairperson: John Krainer, Federal Reserve Bank of 

San Francisco 

STRATEGIC ONLINE-BANKING ADOPTION 

Ruben Hernandez, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 

Co-Author: Gerard Llobet, CEMFI 

WHAT'S BANK REPUTATION WORTH? THE EFFECT OF FRAUD ON 

FINANCIAL CONTRACTS AND INVESTMENT 

Daniel Paravisini, Columbia University GSB 

Co-Author: Hannah Lin, IMF 

FINANCIAL INTEGRATION AND LIQUIDITY CRISES 

Fabio Castiglionesi, Tilburg University 

Co-Authors: Fabio Feriozzi, and Guido Lorenzoni, 

MORTGAGE DEFAULT AND MORTGAGE VALUATION 

John Krainer, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 

Co-Authors: Stephen LeRoy, University of California at Santa Barbara 

and Munpyung O, University of California at Santa Barbara 

14:15 - 16:15 TERM STRUCTURE MODELS I (FIN) 

Chairperson: Torben Rasmussen, Aarhus University 

AN ASSET PRICING APPROACH TO TESTING GENERAL TERM 

STRUCTURE MODELS INCLUDING HEATH-JARROW-MORTON 

SPECIFICATIONS AND AFFINE SUBCLASSES 

Room 5A 

Room 5B

Bent Jesper Christensen, University of Aarhus 

Co-Author: Michel Van der Wel, Erasmus University Rotterdam 

DYNAMIC ASSET PRICING FOR QUADRATIC JUMP--DIFFUSION 

PROCESSES 

Weiping Li, Oklahoma State University 

TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES IN A REGIME SWITCHING 

DYNAMIC STOCHASTIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODEL 

Srikanth Ramamurthy, Loyola University 

Co-Authors: Siddhartha Chib, Washington University in St. Louis and Kyu 

Ho Kang, Washington University in St. Louis 

EXPLOITING TERM STRUCTURE DYNAMICS IN IMMUNIZATION 

STRATEGIES 

Torben Rasmussen, Aarhus University 

Co-Author: Bent Jesper Christensen, University of Aarhus and 

CREATES 

14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING IV (FIN) 

Chairperson: Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University 

LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE VARIATION OF 

REAL RISK PREMIA 

Francisco Rivadeneyra, Bank of Canada 

A THEORY OF TRADING ON THE FX SINGLE-DEALER PLATFORM 

Luca Gelsomini, IESEG School of Management; CNRS - LEM (UMR 

8179); CRETA, University of Warwick. 

Co-Author: Jonathan Cave, Department of Economics and CRETA, 

University of Warwick; RAND Europe 

ASSET RETURNS WITH EARNINGS MANAGEMENT 

Sun Bo, Federal Reserve Board 

ENDOGENOUS INFORMATION FLOWS AND THE CLUSTERING OF 

ANNOUNCEMENTS 

Peter DeMarzo, Stanford University 

Co-Authors: Viral Acharya, nyu and Ilan Kremer, stanford 

14:15 - 16:15 PRICING: THEORY - I (IND) 

Chairperson: Leonard J. Mirman, University of 

Virginia 

Room 5C 


AIRPORT CONGESTION PRICING AND PASSENGER TYPES 

Achim I. Czerny, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management 

Co-Author: Anming Zhang, University of Britsh Columbia, Sauder School 

of Business 

THE MARKET FOR SURPRISES: SELLING SUBSTITUTE GOODS 

THROUGH LOTTERIES. 

Filippo Balestrieri, HP Labs 

Co-Author: Joao Leao, ISCTE 

ADD-ON PRICING, CONSUMER MYOPIA AND REGULATORY 

INTERVENTION 

Ulrich Schuewer, Goethe-University Frankfurt

Co-Author: Michael Kosfeld, Goethe-University Frankfurt 

THE SIGNALING ROLE OF PRICES: COURNOT 

Leonard J. Mirman, University of Virginia 

Co-Authors: Wassim Daher, and Marc Santugini, HEC Montreal 

14:15 - 16:15 R&D AND INNOVATION: EMPIRICAL STUDIES 

(IND) 

Chairperson: Pierre Mohnen, Maastricht University 

INNOVATION POLICY REFORM 

Tuomas Takalo, Bank of Finland and University of Jyväskylä 

COMPETITION, PRODUCT AND PROCESS INNOVATION: AN 

EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS 

Carlos Daniel Santos, University of Alicante and Centre for Economic 

Performance 


MARKET STRUCTURE AND INNOVATION: A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS 

OF THE GLOBAL AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY 

Aamir Hashmi, National University of Singapore 

Co-Author: Johannes Van Biesebroeck, K.U.Leuven 

ON THE LINK BETWEEN R&D, INNOVATION AND PRODUCTIVITY: 

PANEL EVIDENCE FOR DUTCH AND FRENCH MANUFACTURING 

Pierre Mohnen, Maastricht University 

Co-Authors: Jacques Mairesse, CREST, UNU-MERIT, NBER, Franz C. 

Palm, Maastricht University and Wladimir Raymond, Maastricht 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS III (INT) 

Chairperson: Charles Ka Yui Leung, City Univ of 

Hong Kong 

TRENDS IN INTERNATIONAL PRICES 

Marios Zachariadis, University of Cyprus 

Co-Author: Philippe Adrade, Banque de France 

DOMESTIC OR GLOBAL IMBALANCES? RISING INEQUALITY AND 

THE FALL IN THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT 

Tobias Broer, IIES 

FOREIGN LENDERS IN EMERGING ECONOMIES 

Minetti Raoul, Michigan State University 

Co-Author: Matteo Iacoviello, Boston College 

REAL ESTATE AND THE EXTERNAL FINANCE OF BUSINESS 

INVESTMENT: A QUANTITATIVE DYNAMIC GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM 

ANALYSIS 

Charles Ka Yui Leung, City Univ of Hong Kong 

Co-Authors: Yi Jin, Monash University and Zhixiong Zeng, Monash 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL TRADE: FIRM-LEVEL 

EVIDENCE (INT) 

Chairperson: Ferdinand Rauch, World Bank, 

University of Vienna, LSE 

Room 3A 

Room 3E

CHINESE COMPETITION AND THE QUALITY OF FRENCH EXPORTS 

Julien Martin, CREST-INSEE & Paris School of Economics 

Co-Author: ISABELLE MEJEAN, IMF, Ecole Polytechnique and CEPR 

QUALITY AND PRODUCTIVITY AS DETERMINANTS OF CHINESE 

FIRM EXPORT DECISIONS 

Mark Roberts, Pennsylvania State University 

Co-Authors: Xiaoyan Fan, Fudan University, Daniel Yi Xu, New York 

University and Shengxing Zhang, New York University 

THE DETERMINANTS OF VERTICAL INTEGRATION IN EXPORT 

PROCESSING: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Ana Fernandes, University of Sussex 

Co-Author: Heiwai Tang, Tufts University 

TRADE AS ENGINE OF CREATIVE DESTRUCTION - THE MEXICAN 

EXPERIENCE WITH CHINESE COMPETITION 

Ferdinand Rauch, World Bank, University of Vienna, LSE 

Co-Authors: Leonardo Iacovone, World Bank and L. Alan Winters, 

University of Sussex 

14:15 - 16:15 AGGLOMERATION (INT) 

Chairperson: Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, University of 

Geneva 

PLANTS AND PRODUCTIVITY IN REGIONAL AGGLOMERATION 

Wen-Tai Hsu, Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Co-Authors: Thomas Holmes, University of Minnesota and Sanghoon 

Lee, Sauder School of Business, the University of British Columbia 

LOCATIONAL SIGNALING AND AGGLOMERATION 

Chia-Ming Yu, Washington University in St. Louis 

Co-Author: Marcus Berliant, Washington University in St. Louis 

THE EFFECT OF CAPITAL FLOW ON THE AGGLOMERATION 

EVOLUTION OF FOOTLOOSE ENTREPRENEURS 

Shin-Kun Peng, Institute of Economics, Academia Sinica 

Co-Author: Ching-Mu Chen, Graduate Institute of Geography, National 

Taiwan University 

PRODUCTIVE CITIES: SORTING, SELECTION AND 

AGGLOMERATION 

Frédéric Robert-Nicoud, University of Geneva 

Co-Authors: Kristian Behrens, UQAM and Gilles Duranton, University of 

Toronton 

14:15 - 16:15 MARRIAGE AND THE FAMILY (LAB) 

Chairperson: Maristella Botticini, Bocconi University 

Room 3G 


DYNAMIC OPTIMIZATION IN MODELS FOR PANEL DATA: A 

COHORT PANEL DATA MODEL OF THE EFFECTS OF DIVORCE 

LAWS ON DIVORCE RATES 

Marjorie McElroy, Department of Economics, Duke University 

Co-Authors: Tongyai Ivaralakul, Office of the National Economic and 

Social Development Board,Office of the Prime Minister, Bangkok, 

Thailand and Kalina Staub, PHD student, Duke University 

PARENTAL CHOICES AND THE LABOR MARKET OUTCOME OF

CHILDREN 

Ari Kang, Carnegie Mellon University 

THE IMPACT OF SCHOOLING ON THE MARRIAGE AND FERTILITY 

OF TEENAGE WOMEN: EVIDENCE FROM A CHANGE IN 

COMPULSORY SCHOOLING LAW IN TURKEY 

Murat Kirdar, Middle East Technical University 

Co-Authors: Meltem Dayioglu, Middle East Technical University and 

Ismet Koc, Hacettepe University 

ARE THERE INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE IN MARRIAGE 

MARKETS? 

Maristella Botticini, Bocconi University 

Co-Author: Aloysius Siow, University of Toronto 

14:15 - 16:15 CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR (LAB) 

Chairperson: Ernesto Villanueva, Bank of Spain 

DURABLE PURCHASES OVER THE LIFE CYCLE 

Melanie Luhrmann, Royal Holloway, University of London 

Co-Authors: Martin Browning, Oxford University and Thomas Crossley, 

University of Cambridge 

FROM INCOME TO CONSUMPTION:MEASURING HOUSEHOLDS 

PARTIAL INSURANCE 

Jose Maria Casado, Banco de Espana 

INCOME SHOCKS AND INVESTMENTS IN HUMAN CAPITAL 

Ginja Rita, University College London 

THE RESPONSE OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH TO THE RISK OF 

LOSING THE JOB: EVIDENCE FROM DIFFERENCES IN FIRING 

COSTS 

Ernesto Villanueva, Bank of Spain 

Co-Author: Cristina Barcelo, Bank of Spain 

14:15 - 16:15 ECONOMICS OF EDUCATION (LAB) 

Chairperson: Yinghua He, Columbia University 

TIMING AND INCENTIVES: IMPACTS OF STUDENT AID ON 

ACADEMIC ACHIEVEMENT 

Juanna Joensen, Stockholm School of Economics 

LEARNING YOUR OWN ABILITY 

Carlos Madeira, Central Bank of Chile 

INCOME TAXES, SUBSIDIES TO EDUCATION, AND INVESTMENTS 

IN HUMAN CAPITAL 

Dimitri Paolini, CRENoS and DEIR, University of Sassari 

Co-Authors: Concetta Mendolicchio, IAB and Tito Pietra, DSE, University 

of Bologna 

GAMING THE SCHOOL CHOICE MECHANISM 

Yinghua He, Columbia University 

14:15 - 16:15 TAXATION AND MACROECONOMICS II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Hubert Kempf, 

Room 5I 

Room 5J 

Room 3B

ON THE TAXATION OF DIVIDENDS AND CAPITAL GAINS WHEN 

MARKETS ARE INCOMPLETE 

Eva Carceles, Stony Brook University 

Co-Authors: Alexios Anagnostopoulos, Stony Brook University and 

Danmo Lin, University of Maryland 

TAXING CAPITAL IS NOT A BAD IDEA INDEED: THE ROLE OF 

HUMAN CAPITAL AND LABOR-MARKET FRICTIONS 

Hung-Ju Chen, National Taiwan University 

UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE, HUMAN CAPITAL AND FINANCIAL 

MARKETS 

Antonio Mele, Nuffield College and University of Oxford 

INSULATION IMPOSSIBLE: FISCAL SPILLOVERS IN A MONETARY 

UNION 

Hubert Kempf, 

Co-Authors: Russell Cooper, and Dan Peled, University of Haifa 

14:15 - 16:15 MONETARY POLICY III (MAX) 

Chairperson: Marc Giannoni, Columbia University 

COMPUTING OPTIMAL SUSTAINABLE MONETARY POLICY 

Takeki Sunakawa, The Ohio State University and Bank of Japan 

MONETARY POLICY AND FINANCIAL STABILITY 

Vu Dong, Georgetown University, Department of Economics 

BANKING COMPETITION, COLLATERAL CONSTRAINTS AND 

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY 

Andrés Javier, Universidad de Valencia 

Co-Authors: Óscar Arce, CNMV and Carlos Thomas, Banco de España 

OPTIMAL TARGET CRITERIA FOR STABILIZATION POLICY 

Marc Giannoni, Columbia University 

Co-Author: Michael Woodford, Columbia University 

14:15 - 16:15 CREDIT MARKETS I (MAX) 

Chairperson: Sophie Osotimehin, CREST-INSEE 

and Paris School of Economics 

INTEREST RATES AND DEFAULT IN UNSECURED LOAN MARKETS 

Jose Angelo Divino, Catholic University of Brasilia 

Co-Authors: Edna Lima, Catholic University of Brasilia and Jaime Orrillo, 

Catholic University of Brasilia 

THE METHOD OF ENDOGENOUS GRIDPOINTS WITH 

OCCASIONALLY BINDING CONSTRAINTS AMONG ENDOGENOUS 

VARIABLES 

Winfried Koeniger, Queen Mary, University of London 

Co-Author: Thomas Hintermaier, Institute fo Advanced Studies Vienna 

(IHS) and University of Mannheim 

A MODEL OF TIERED SETTLEMENT NETWORKS 

James Chapman, Bank of Canada 

Co-Authors: Jonathan Chiu, Bank of Canada and Miguel Molico, Bank of 

Canada 

Room 3C 

Room 3I

ALL YOU NEED IS LOAN. THE ROLE OF CREDIT CONSTRAINTS ON 

THE CLEANSING EFFECT OF RECESSIONS 

Sophie Osotimehin, CREST-INSEE and Paris School of Economics 

Co-Author: Francesco Pappadà, Paris School of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 PUBLIC ECONOMICS: ENVIRONMENTAL 

ECONOMICS (PUB) 

Chairperson: Zhe Li, Shanghai University of Finance 

and Economics 

THE ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECT OF GREEN TAXATION: THE CASE 

OF THE FRENCH "BONUS/MALUS" 

Pauline Givord, CREST-INSEE 

Co-Authors: Xavier Boutin, CREST-INSEE and Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, 

CREST-INSEE 

GROWTH AND CONVERGENCE IN A MODEL WITH RENEWABLE 

AND NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES: EXISTENCE OF SOLUTIONS, 

TRANSITION, AND EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE 

Phu Nguyen-Van, BETA-CNRS, Universite de Strasbourg 

Co-Author: Manh Hung Nguyen, LERNA, INRA and Toulouse School of 

Economics 

TRADE AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS ON CLUSTERED 

MULTILATERAL ENVIRONMENTAL AGREEMENTS 

Christoph Jessberger, Ifo Institute for economic research 

Co-Authors: Peter Egger, ETH Zurich and Mario Larch, Ifo Institute for 

economic research 

PRODUCTIVITY DISPERSION AND ENVIRONMENTAL POLICIES 

Zhe Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Author: Shouyong Shi, University of Toronto 

14:15 - 16:15 CLIMATE, HEALTH AND DEVELOPMENT II (DEV) 

Chairperson: Lin Liu, University of Rochester 

Room 3H 


LEAD EXPOSURE AND ITS EFFECTS ON ACADEMIC 

ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM AN INDUSTRIAL NEGLIGENCE 

Sergio Urzua, Northwestern University 

Co-Authors: TOMAS RAU, University of Chile and LORETO REYES, 

University of Chile 

HOW DO HIGH-COST PATIENTS FARE UNDER THE GLOBAL 

BUDGET POLICY? EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Wei Wang, Stanford University 

SPILLOVER EFFECTS IN HEALTHCARE PROGRAMS: EVIDENCE 

ON SOCIAL NORMS AND INFORMATION SHARING 

Ciro Avitabile, CSEF, University of Naples "Federico II" 

INFECTIOUS DISEASES AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Lin Liu, University of Rochester 

Co-Authors: Aditya Goenka, National University of Singapore and Manh 

Hung Nguyen, LERNA, INRA and Toulouse School of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR: LABOR (DEV) 

Chairperson: Abla Safir, OECD 

Room 3D

OVEREMPLOYMENT, UNDEREMPLOYMENT AND THE 

OPPORTUNITY COST OF TIME: BUILDING POLICY AGENDAS FOR 

DEVELOPING ECONOMIES 

Thomas Barré, CES - University of Paris Pantheon Sorbonne 

REFERRAL AND JOB PERFORMANCE: EVIDENCE FROM THE 

GHANA COLONIAL ARMY 

Alexander Moradi, Univeri 

Co-Author: Marcel Fafchamps, Oxford 

EFFICIENCY OF MALE AND FEMALE ON-FARM LABOUR SUPPLY: 

EVIDENCE FROM UGANDA 

Jennifer Golan, University of Manchester 

Co-Authors: Martyn Andrews, University of Manchester and Jann Lay, 

University of Goettingen and GIGA 

COPING WITH AGGREGATE SHOCKS: TEMPORARY MIGRATION 

AND OTHER LABOR RESPONSES TO CLIMATIC SHOCKS IN 

RURAL INDIA 

Abla Safir, OECD 

Co-Author: Reena Badiani, Yale 

14:15 - 16:15 TIME SERIES (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jiti Gao, The University of Adelaide 

GAUSSIAN INFERENCE IN GENERAL AR(1) MODELS BASED ON 

LONG DIFFERENCE 

Biing-Shen Kuo, Dept. International Business, National Chengchi 

University 

Co-Author: Jhih-Gang Chen, Dept International Business, National 

Chengchi University 

A UNIFIED APPROACH TO VALIDATING UNIVARIATE AND 

MULTIVARIATE CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION MODELS IN TIME 

SERIES 

Bin Chen, University of Rochester 

Co-Author: Yongmiao Hong, Cornell University 


DENSITY FORECAST EVALUATION USING DATA-DRIVEN SMOOTH 

TEST 

Yupeng Zhang, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in Economics, 

Xiamen University 

Co-Author: Park Sung Yong, The Wang Yanan Institute for Studies in 

Economics, Xiamen University 

SEMIPARAMETRIC ESTIMATION IN TIME SERIES SIMULTANEOUS 

EQUATIONS MODELS 

Jiti Gao, The University of Adelaide 

Co-Author: Peter Phillips, Yale University 

14:15 - 16:15 STRUCTURAL MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Aureo Paula, University of 

Pennsylvania 

MATCHING WITH TRADE-OFFS: REVEALED PREFERENCES OVER 

COMPETING CHARACTERISTICS 

Alfred Galichon, Ecole polytechnique 

Co-Author: Bernard Salanie, Columbia University 

Room 5D

IDENTIFICATION OF STOCHASTIC SEQUENTIAL BARGAINING 

Xun Tang, Economics Department, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Antonio Merlo, University of Pennsylvania 

CHOICE PROBABILITY GENERATING FUNCTIONS 

Mogens Fosgerau, DTU, Denmark 

Co-Authors: Michel Bierlaire, EPFL and Daniel McFadden, University of 

California, Berkeley 

INFERENCE OF SIGNS OF INTERACTION E 

FFECTS IN SIMULTANEOUS GAMES WITH INCOMPLETE 

INFORMATION 

Aureo Paula, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Xun Tang, Economics Department, University of 

Pennsylvania 

14:15 - 16:15 FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Paul Kattuman, Judge Business 

School, University of Cambridge 

MODELLING MULTIVARIATE JOINT TAILS AND APPLICATION IN 

EXTREME RISK SPILLOVERS BETWEEN BANKING SYSTEMS 

Xiao Qin, Shanghai Jiao Tong University 

Co-Authors: Ruoen Ren, Beihang University and Richard Smith, 

University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill 

ASYMMETRIC STOCHASTIC CONDITIONAL DURATION MODEL -- A 

MIXTURE-OF-NORMAL APPROACH 

Dinghai Xu, University of Waterloo 

Co-Authors: John Knight, University of Western Ontario and Tony 

Wirjanto, University of Waterloo 

EFFICIENT ESTIMATION OF LEARNING MODELS 

Veronika Czellar, HEC Paris 

Co-Author: Laurent Calvet, HEC Paris 

EMERGING MARKETS AND HEAVY TAILS 

Paul Kattuman, Judge Business School, University of Cambridge 

Co-Authors: Rustam Ibragimov, Department of Economics, Harvard 

University and Marat Ibragimov, Tashkent State University of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 HYPOTHESIS TESTS II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Pascale Valery, HEC Montreal 

FINITE SAMPLE NONPARAMETRIC TESTS FOR LINEAR 

REGRESSIONS 

Karl Schlag, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 

Co-Author: Olivier Gossner, Paris School of Economics 

A HYPOTHESIS TEST FOR MAXIMUM SCORE ESTIMATION 

Walter Mayer, University of Mississippi 

Co-Author: Chen Wu, Black Hills State University 

ROBUST INFERENCE UNDER MOMENT RESTRICTIONS 

Taisuke Otsu, Yale University 

Co-Author: Yuichi Kitamura, 

WALD-TYPE TESTS WHEN RANK CONDITIONS FAIL: A SMOOTH 

Room 5E 

Room 5F

REGULARIZATION APPROACH 

Pascale Valery, HEC Montreal 

Co-Author: Jean-Marie Dufour, McGill University 

14:15 - 16:15 PANEL QUANTILE MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Geert Dhaene, KULeuven 

SET IDENTIFICATION VIA QUANTILE RESTRICTIONS IN SHORT 

PANELS 

Adam Rosen, University College London 

ASYMPTOTICS AND BOOTSTRAP INFERENCE FOR PANEL 

QUANTILE REGRESSION MODELS WITH FIXED EFFECTS 

Kengo Kato, Hiroshima University 

Co-Authors: Antonio Galvao, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and 

Gabriel Montes-Rojas, City University London 

PENALIZED QUANTILE REGRESSION FOR DYNAMIC PANEL DATA 

Antonio Galvao, University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee 

Co-Author: Gabriel Montes-Rojas, City University London 

MEDIAN-BASED ESTIMATION OF DYNAMIC PANEL MODELS WITH 

FIXED EFFECTS 

Geert Dhaene, KULeuven 

Co-Author: Yu Zhu, University of Wisconsin 

14:15 - 16:15 TREATMENT EFFECTS II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol 

DETECTING TREATMENT MISALLOCATION 

Debopam Bhattacharya, University of Oxford 

TESTING THE CORRELATED RANDOM COEFFICIENT MODEL 

Daniel Schmierer, University of Chicago 

Co-Authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago and Sergio Urzua, 


Room 5H 


A FRAMEWORK FOR THE ANALYSIS OF TIME-VARYING 

TREATMENT EFFECTS: HOW THE TIMING OF GRADE RETENTION 

AFFECTS OUTCOMES 

Salvador Navarro, university of wisconsin 

GENETIC MARKERS AS INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES: AN 

APPLICATION TO CHILD FAT MASS AND ACADEMIC 

ACHIEVEMENT 

Frank Windmeijer, University of Bristol 

Co-Author: Carol Propper, Imperial College, CMPO University of Bristol, 

CEPR 


16:45 - 18:15 WALRAS-BOWLEY LECTURE 

Chairperson: Richard Blundell, University College 

London 

THE EMPIRICAL IMPLICATIONS OF SELF-ENFORCEABLE 

CONTRACTS: MEASURING STICKS AND CARROTS IN RURAL 

Room Grand Ballroom

MÉXICO 

Orazio Attanasio, UCL

FRIDAY 20 AUGUST 2010 


09:00 - 10:45 COMMUNICATION / ORGANIZATIONS 

Chairperson: Ilya Segal, Stanford University 

Discussant: Navin Kartik, Columbia University 

GIVING AND RECEIVING ADVICE 

Joel Sobel, University of California, San Diego 

BOUNDED RATIONALITY AND ORGANIZATION: NEW 

DEVELOPMENTS 

Andrea Prat, London School of Economics 

Co-Author: Luis Garicano, London School of Economics 

09:00 - 10:45 TRADE AND FIRM DYNAMICS 

Chairperson: Hugo Hopenhayn, UCLA 

Discussant: Stephen Redding, London School of 

Economics 

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND FIRM DYNAMICS 

Marc Melitz, Harvard University 

Co-Author: Ariel Burstein, University of California, Los Angeles 

INTERNATIONAL TRADE: LINKING MICRO AND MACRO 

Samuel Kortum, University of Chicago 

Co-Author: Jonathan Eaton, New York University 

09:00 - 10:45 APPLIED ECONOMICS 

Chairperson: Martin Browning, Oxford University 

Discussant: Enrico Moretti, UC Berkeley 

MANAGEMENT, ORGANIZATION AND PRODUCTIVITY 

John Van Reenen, London School of Economics 

EXTRAPOLATE-ING: EXTERNAL VALIDITY AND 

OVERIDENTIFICATION IN A LATE FRAMEWORK 

Ivan Fernandez-Val, Boston University 

Co-Author: Joshua Angrist, MIT 


11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING AND MARKETS I (THY) 

Chairperson: Dirk Hofmann, Humboldt-University 

Berlin 

ASSORTATIVE MATCHING AND RISK SHARING 

Hailin Sun, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Author: Sanxi Li, Toulouse School of Economics 

ASSORTATIVE LEARNING 

Jan Eeckhout, UPF - UPENN 

Co-Author: Xi Weng, UPenn 




Room Gran Melia B1

BILATERAL SEARCH WITH HORIZONTAL HETEROGENEITY 

Dirk Hofmann, Humboldt-University Berlin 

Co-Author: Salmai Qari, Max Planck Institute for Intellectual Property, 

Munich 

11:15 - 12:45 REPEATED GAMES I (THY) 

Chairperson: Drew Fudenberg, Harvard University 

LEARNING FROM PRIVATE INFORMATION IN NOISY REPEATED 

GAMES 

Yuichi Yamamoto, Harvard University 

Co-Author: Drew Fudenberg, Harvard University 

DYNAMIC GAMES WITH INFORMATION LAG 

Ichiro Obara, UCLA 

Co-Author: Vhaskar V, UCL 


COOPERATION IN NOISY REPEATED GAMES 

Drew Fudenberg, Harvard University 

Co-Authors: Anna Dreber, Institute for Financial Research (SIFR) and 

David G. Rand, Harvard University 

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL ECONOMY - THEORY (THY) 

Chairperson: César Guerrero-Luchtenberg, 

University of Castilla la Mancha 


LEGISLATIVE COMMITTEES AS INFORMATION INTERMEDIARIES: 

A UNIFIED THEORY OF COMMITTEE SELECTION AND 

AMENDMENT RULES 

Yuichiro Kamada, Harvard University 

Co-Authors: Attila Ambrus, Harvard and Eduardo Azevedo, Harvard 

University 

MISINFORMATION 

Wei Li, University of British Columbia 

Co-Author: Hao Li, University of British Columbia and University of 

Toronto 

TIMING OF PROTECTIONISM 

César Guerrero-Luchtenberg, University of Castilla la Mancha 

Co-Author: Aurora Gómez-Galvarriato, 

11:15 - 12:45 MODELS WITH OPTIMISM AND NON-COMMON 

PRIORS (THY) 

Chairperson: Artyom Shneyerov, Concordia 

University, CIREQ, CIRANO 

SENTIMENTS AND RATIONALIZABILITY 

Laurent Mathevet, UT Austin 

HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS IN A CONTINUOUS-TIME MODEL 

Chiaki Hara, Kyoto University 


HOW OPTIMISM WITHOUT A COMMON PRIOR LEADS TO PRICE 

DISCOVERY AND EFFICIENCY IN A DYNAMIC MATCHING MARKET 

Artyom Shneyerov, Concordia University, CIREQ, CIRANO 

Co-Author: Dipjyoti Majumdar, Concordia University, CIREQ

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON COLLECTIVE DECISION 

MAKING (EXP) 

Chairperson: Sandra Ludwig, University of Munich 


THE EFFECT OF STRUCTURE IN LEGISLATIVE BARGAINING: 

THEORY AND EXPERIMENTS 

Arthur Schram, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Authors: Adrian de Groot Ruiz, Universityu of Amsterdam and Roald 

Ramer, University of Amsterdam 

COORDINATING RESISTANCE THROUGH COMMUNICATION AND 

REPEATED INTERACTION 

Vai-Lam Mui, Monash University 

Co-Author: Timothy N. Cason, Purdue University 

DOES DECEPTIVE ADVERTISING REDUCE POLITICAL 

PARTICIPATION? THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Sandra Ludwig, University of Munich 

Co-Authors: Daniel Houser, George Mason University and Thomas 

Stratmann, George Mason University 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON SOCIAL PREFERENCES 

(EXP) 

Chairperson: Yohanes E. Riyanto, Nanyang 

Technological University 

CONTRACTING UNDER RECIPROCAL ALTRUISM 

Oleg Shchetinin, Gothenburg University 

TRUST AND TRUSTWORTHINESS REPUTATIONS IN AN 

INVESTMENT GAME 

Ninghua Du, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Authors: Gary Charness, UC Santa Barbara and Chun-Lei Yang, 

Academia Sinica 

AN EGALITARIAN REGIME BREEDS GENEROSITY: THE EFFECT 

OF ENDOWMENT ALLOCATION PROCEDURES ON SOCIAL 

PREFERENCES 

Yohanes E. Riyanto, Nanyang Technological University 

Co-Author: Jianlin Zhang, Singapore Institute of Management 

11:15 - 12:45 VOLATILITY II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Enrique Sentana, CEMFI 

LONG AND SHORT TERM JUMPS IN COMMODITY FUTURES 

PRICES: STATISTICAL AND ECONOMIC PERSPECTIVES 

Ke Tang, Hanqing Institute - Renmin University of China 

Co-Authors: Michael Dempster, Cambridge University and Elena 

Medova, Cambridge University 

RISK. UNCERTAINTY AND MONETARY POLICY 

Marie Hoerova, European Central Bank 

VALUATION OF VIX DERIVATIVES 

Enrique Sentana, CEMFI 

Co-Author: Javier Mencia, Bank of Spain 

11:15 - 12:45 INVESTMENT DYNAMICS (FIN) 

Chairperson: Maria Cecilia Bustamante, London 


Room 5A 

Room 5B


INVESTMENT AND INSTITUTIONS 

Kenichi Ueda, International Monetary Fund 

Co-Authors: Stijn Claessens, International Monetary Fund and Yishay 

Yafeh, Hebrew University 

NO BANK, ONE BANK, SEVERAL BANKS: DOES IT MATTER FOR 

INVESTMENT 

Alexander Karaivanov, Simon Fraser University 

Co-Authors: Sonia Ruano, Banco de España, Jesus Saurina, Banco de 

España and Robert Townsend, MIT 

INVESTMENT AND ASSET RETURNS' DYNAMICS IN OLIGOPOLIES 

Maria Cecilia Bustamante, London School of Economics 

11:15 - 12:45 COLLUSION AND TYING: THEORY (IND) 

Chairperson: Alexander Rasch, University of 

Cologne 

ASYMMETRIC COST PASS-THROUGH IN SUPPLY FUNCTION 

EQUILIBRIA, COORDINATING BIDS IN POWER SPOT MARKETS 

Nikolas Woelfing, Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) 


MULTI-MARKET COLLUSION WITH DEMAND LINKAGES AND 

ANTITRUST ENFORCEMENT 

Heiko Gerlach, Univeristy of Auckland 

Co-Author: Jay Pil Choi, Michigan State Univesity and Yonsei University 

THE DETERRENCE EFFECT OF EXCLUDING RINGLEADERS FROM 

LENIENCY PROGRAMS 

Alexander Rasch, University of Cologne 

Co-Author: Jesko Herre, University of Cologne 

11:15 - 12:45 PRICING: THEORY - II (IND) 

Chairperson: Simon Weidenholzer, 


ONLINE AUCTIONS WITH COMPETITIVE SELLERS 

Jianxia Yang, School of Business, East China University of Science and 

Technology 

Co-Authors: Xing Bao, School of Business Administration, Zhejiang 

GongShang University, Hongmin Chen, Antai College of Economics and 

Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University and Hong Wang, Antai 

College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiao Tong University 

MULTIPRODUCT PRICING AND THE DIAMOND PARADOX 

Andrew Rhodes, University of Oxford 

PRICE DISPERSION, SEARCH EXTERNALITIES, AND THE DIGITAL 

DIVIDE 

Simon Weidenholzer, 

Co-Authors: manfred nermuth, Economics Department, University of 

Vienna, Giacomo Pasini, University of Venice and Paolo Pin, Università 

di Siena 

11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL CRISES II (INT) 

Chairperson: Kannika Thampanishvong, University 

of St Andrews 

Room Yellow River Hall

THE COMPOSITION MATTERS: CAPITAL INFLOWS AND LIQUIDITY 

CRUNCH DURING A GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS 

Hui Tong, IMF 

Co-Author: Shang-Jin Wei, Columbia University 

DEBT MATURITY WITHOUT COMMITMENT 

Dirk Niepelt, Study Center Gerzensee; U Bern; IIES Stockholm 

DELAY AND HAIRCUTS IN SOVEREIGN DEBT: RECOVERY AND 

SUSTAINABILITY 

Kannika Thampanishvong, University of St Andrews 

Co-Authors: Sayantan Ghosal, University of Warwick and Marcus Miller, 

University of Warwick 

11:15 - 12:45 TRADE INTEGRATION (INT) 

Chairperson: Calin Arcalean, ESADE Business 

School 

THE GAINS FROM VARIETY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION 

Michael Seitz, University of Munich 

Co-Author: Lukas Mohler, University of Basel 

ASYMMETRIC TRADE INTEGRATION AND GROWTH 

Alan Woodland, University of New South Wales 

Co-Authors: Seppo Honkapohja, Bank of Finland and Arja Turunen-Red, 

University of New Orleans 

DYNAMIC FISCAL INTERACTIONS AND ECONOMIC INTEGRATION 

Calin Arcalean, ESADE Business School 

11:15 - 12:45 EDUCATION DECISIONS (LAB) 

Chairperson: Chao Fu, University of Pennsylvania 

RISK AVERSION AND SCHOOLING DECISIONS 

Marco Leonardi, University of Milan 

Co-Author: Christian Belzil, Ecole Polytechnique 

MODELING COLLEGE MAJOR CHOICES USING ELICITED 

MEASURES OF EXPECTATIONS AND COUNTERFACTUALS 

V. Joseph Hotz, Duke University 

Co-Authors: Peter Arcidiacono, Duke University and Songman Kang, 

Duke University 

EQUILIBRIUM TUITION, APPLICATIONS, ADMISSIONS AND 

ENROLLMENT IN THE COLLEGE MARKET 

Chao Fu, University of Pennsylvania 

11:15 - 12:45 LABOR CONTRACTS II (LAB) 

Chairperson: Agata Maida, RWI-ESSEN 

INTERPRETING WAGE BARGAINING NORMS 

Juhana Vartiainen, National Institute of Economic Research 

IMPLICIT VS. EXPLICIT INCENTIVES: THEORY AND A CASE STUDY 

Oliver Fabel, University of Vienna 

RENT-SHARINH HOLD_UP AND WAGES 

Agata Maida, RWI-ESSEN 

Room 3I 

Room 5F 

Room 5G

Co-Authors: David Card, UC berkeley and Francesco Devicienti, 

University of Torino 

11:15 - 12:45 WAGE INEQUALITY (LAB) 

Chairperson: Ken Yamada, Singapore Management 

University 

INEQUALITY AND SPECIALIZATION: THE GROWTH OF LOW-SKILL 

SERVICE JOBS IN THE UNITED STATES 

David Dorn, CEMFI 

Co-Author: David Autor, MIT 

UNION WAGE SETTING AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF EMPLOYEES' 

EARNINGS: EVIDENCE FROM CERTIFICATION ELECTIONS 

Brigham Frandsen, MIT Economics Department 

THE MINIMUM WAGE IN A DEFLATIONARY ECONOMY: THE 

JAPANESE EXPERIENCE, 1994--2003 

Ken Yamada, Singapore Management University 

Co-Authors: Ryo Kambayashi, Hitotsubashi University and Daiji 

Kawaguchi, Hitotsubashi University 

11:15 - 12:45 FINANCIAL FRICTIONS II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Varadarajan Chari, University of 

Minnesota 

CREDIT SHORTAGES, COLLATERAL VALUE, AND LACK OF 

COMMON KNOWLEDGE 

Gabriela Mundaca, Johns Hopkins University 

THE DYNAMICS OF LOAN CONTRACTS 

Celine Rochon, University of Oxford 

Co-Author: Christophe Chamley, Boston University 

REPUTATION AND SUDDEN COLLAPSE IN SECONDARY LOAN 

MARKETS 

Varadarajan Chari, University of Minnesota 

Co-Authors: Ali Shourideh, University of Minnesota and Ariel Zetlin 

Jones, University of Minnesota 

11:15 - 12:45 MONETARY THEORY (MAX) 

Chairperson: Daniela Puzzello, University of Illinois 

Room 5H 


A THEORY OF THE NON-NEUTRALITY OF MONEY WITH BANKING 

FRICTIONS AND BANK RECAPITALIZATION 

Zhixiong Zeng, Monash University 

MONEY AND PRICE POSTING UNDER PRIVATE INFORMATION 

Mei Dong, Bank of Canada 

Co-Author: Janet Jiang, University of Manitoba 

THE INFORMATIONAL ROLE OF PRICES AND THE ESSENTIALITY 

OF MONEY IN THE LAGOS-WRIGHT MODEL 

Daniela Puzzello, University of Illinois 

Co-Authors: Luis Araujo, Michigan State University, Braz Camargo, 

University of Western Ontario and Raoul Minetti, Michigan State 

University 

Room 3A

11:15 - 12:45 FISCAL POLICY II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Ruediger Bachmann, University of 

Michigan, IFO, CESifo 

DEFAULT RISK PREMIA ON GOVERNMENT BONDS IN A 

QUANTITATIVE MACROECONOMIC MODEL 

Andreas Schabert, TU Dortmund University 

Co-Authors: Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund and IZA and Ludger 

Linnemann, TU Dortmund University 

OPTIMAL FISCAL POLICY OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE REVISITED 

Alessandro Mennuni, University of Southampton and European 

University Institute 

Co-Author: Martin Gervais, University of Southampton 

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OVER THE BUSINESS CYCLE: THE 

ROLE OF HETEROGENEITY ANDWEALTH BIAS IN POLITICAL 

DECISION MAKING 

Ruediger Bachmann, University of Michigan, IFO, CESifo 

Co-Author: Bai Jinhui, Georgetown University 

11:15 - 12:45 ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE DIRECTION OF 

TECHNICAL CHANGE (MAX) 

Chairperson: Ioana Schiopu, ESADE Business 

School 

IN DUBIO, PRO CES: TECHNICAL PROGRESS SPECICATION AND 

THE ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION 

Miguel Leon-Ledesma, University of Kent and Alpo Williman, European 

Central Bank 

Co-Author: Peter McAdam, European Central Bank 

A GENERALIZATION OF THE SAMUELSON-ARA SURROGATE 

PRODUCTION FUNCTION 

Takashi Yagi, Meiji University (School of Political Science and 

Economics) 

DIRECTED TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION, HUMAN CAPITAL 

FORMATION AND WORLD INCOME DISTRIBUTION 

Ioana Schiopu, ESADE Business School 

11:15 - 12:45 CREDIT MARKETS II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Hernan Moscoso Boedo, University of 

Virginia 

ENDOGENOUS LIQUIDITY AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE 

Saki Bigio, New York University 

CREDIT SCORES AND COLLEGE INVESTMENT 

Felicia Ionescu, Colgate Univ / visiting Univ of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Nicole Simpson, Colgate University 

FINANCIAL STRUCTURE, INFORMALITY AND DEVELOPMENT 

Hernan Moscoso Boedo, University of Virginia 

Co-Author: Pablo D'Erasmo, 

11:15 - 12:45 PUBLIC FINANCE: EMPIRICAL ISSUES II (PUB) 

Chairperson: Ignez Tristao, Interamerican 

Development Bank 

Room 3D 

Room 3E 

Room 3H 

Room 3G

ROAD INVESTMENT AND INVENTORY REDUCTION: EVIDENCE ON 

CAUSALITY AND EXTERNALITY 

Zhigang Li, University of Hong Kong 

TAX FAIRNESS PERCEPTIONS AND WORK EFFORT: EVIDENCE 

FROM ABSENTEEISM 

Oliver Himmler, Goettingen University 

Co-Authors: Thomas Cornelissen, UC London and Tobias Koenig, 

University Hannover 

RISING HEALTH CARE COSTS: PRODUCTIVITY OR QUALITY 

GROWTH? AN ESTIMATION IN THE U.S. HEALTH SECTOR AT THE 

HOSPITAL LEVEL 

Ignez Tristao, Interamerican Development Bank 

Co-Authors: Juan Contreras, Congressional Budget Office and Elena 

Spatoulas, University of Michigan 

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS AND FISCAL POLICY 

(POL) 

Chairperson: Björn Hinnerich, Stockholm Univerisity 

ELITE CAPTURE OF LOCAL INSTITUTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM A 

FIELD EXPERIMENT IN AFGHANISTAN 

Ruben Enikolopov, New Economic School 

Co-Authors: Beath Andrew, Harvard University and Christia Fotini, MIT 

HOW DO ELECTORAL SYSTEMS AFFECTS FISCAL POLICY? 

EVIDENCE FROM STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENTS 

Christina Gathmann, University of Mannheim 

THE POLICY CONSEQUENCES OF DIRECT VERSUS 

REPRESENTATIVE DEMOCRACY: A REGRESSION DISCONTINUITY 

APPROACH 

Björn Hinnerich, Stockholm Univerisity 

Co-Author: Per Pettersson-Lidbom, Stockholm University 

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL PARTIES AND LEADERS (POL) 

Chairperson: Sharun Mukand, University of Warwick 

SPLIT-TICKET VOTING: AN IMPLICIT INCENTIVE APPROACH 

Galina Zudenkova, University Carlos III of Madrid 

MEDIOCRACY 

Andrea Mattozzi, Caltech 

Co-Author: Antonio Merlo, University of Pennsylvania 

THE LEADER AS CATALYST: ON MASS MOVEMENTS AND THE 

POLITICAL MECHANICS OF INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE 

Sharun Mukand, University of Warwick 

Co-Author: Sumon Majumdar, Queens University 

11:15 - 12:45 INSTITUTIONS AND DEVELOPMENT I (DEV) 

Chairperson: Manasa Patnam, University of 

Cambridge 

CONTRACT ENFORCEMENT: A POLITICAL ECONOMY MODEL OF 

LEGAL DEVELOPMENT 

Room 3C 

Room 3J 

Room 3B

Fali Huang, Singapore Management University 

HOW DOES CENTRAL AUTHORITY GOVERN THE PROVINCIAL 

LEADERS? EVIDENCE FROM CHINA 

Wu Mingqin, School of Economics and Finance, The University of Hong 

Kong, Hong Kong, China 

POWER, POLITICS AND PUBLIC GOOD PROVISION: 

UNDERSTANDING INSTITUTIONAL PERSISTENCE IN RURAL 

PUNJAB 

Manasa Patnam, University of Cambridge 

11:15 - 12:45 IV/GMM WITH WEAK OR MANY INSTRUMENTS 

(ECO) 

Chairperson: Jan Kiviet, University of Amsterdam 

INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLE ESTIMATION WITH 

HETEROSKEDASTICITY AND MANY INSTRUMENTS 

John Chao, University of Maryland 

Co-Authors: Jerry Hausman, MIT, Whitney Newey, MIT, Norman 

Swanson, Rutgers University and Tiemen Woutersen, Johns Hopkins 

University 

ON THE ASYMPTOTIC SIZE DISTORTION OF TESTS WHEN 

INSTRUMENTS LOCALLY VIOLATE THE EXOGENEITY 

ASSUMPTION 

Patrik Guggenberger, UC San Diego, Department of Economics 


COMPARING THE ASYMPTOTIC AND EMPIRICAL 

(UN)CONDITIONAL DISTRIBUTIONS OF OLS AND IV IN A LINEAR 

STATIC SIMULTANEOUS EQUATION 

Jan Kiviet, University of Amsterdam 

Co-Author: Jerzy Niemczyk, European Central Bank 

11:15 - 12:45 STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Thierry Magnac, Toulouse School of 

Economics 

INFERENCE ON A GENERALIZED ROY MODEL, WITH AN 

APPLICATION TO SCHOOLING DECISIONS IN FRANCE 

Arnaud Maurel, CREST-ENSAE 

Co-Author: Xavier d'Haultfoeuille, CREST-INSEE 

ESTIMATION OF A MULTIPLE EQUILIBRIUM GAME WITH 

COMPLETE INFORMATION: HUSBAND AND WIFE LABOR FORCE 

PARTICIPATION IN MEXICO 

Brasil Alberto Acosta-Pena, CIDE 

COLLEGE ENTRY EXAMS: A DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE MODEL 

Thierry Magnac, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Author: José Raimundo Carvalho, Universidade Federal do Ceara 

11:15 - 12:45 QUANTILES I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Anil Bera, University of Illinois at 

Urbana-Champaign 

NONPARAMETRIC QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH 

DISCONTINUITIES 

Room 5C 

Room 5D

Tatsushi Oka, Boston University 

QUANTILE REGRESSION ANALYSIS WITH MISSING RESPONSE, 

WITH APPLICATIONS TO INEQUALITY MEASURES AND DATA 

COMBINATION 

Jungmo Yoon, Claremont McKenna College 

WHICH QUANTILE IS THE MOST INFORMATIVE? MAXIMUM 

ENTROPY QUANTILE REGRESSION 

Anil Bera, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 

11:15 - 12:45 GARCH MODELS II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jean-michel Zakoian, CREST and 

University Lille 3 

OPTIMAL PREDICTIONS OF POWERS OF CONDITIONALLY 

HETEROSKEDASTIC PROCESSES 

Christian Francq, University Lille 3 

Co-Author: Jean-michel Zakoian, CREST and University Lille 3 

A ROBUST ESTIMATOR OF CONDITIONAL VOLATILITY 

Chi Wan, Carleton Univer4sity 

Co-Author: Zhijie Xiao, Boston College 

STRICT STATIONARITY TESTING AND ESTIMATION OF EXPLOSIVE 

ARCH MODELS 

Jean-michel Zakoian, CREST and University Lille 3 

11:15 - 12:45 STRUCTURAL CHANGE II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Leandro Magnusson, Tulane 

University 

DATING THE TIMELINE OF FINANCIAL BUBBLES DURING THE 

SUBPRIME CRISIS 

Jun Yu, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Peter Phillips, Yale University 

TESTING STRUCTURAL CHANGE IN CONDITIONAL 

DISTRIBUTIONS VIA QUANTILE REGRESSIONS 

Liangjun Su, Singaproe Management University 

Co-Author: Zhijie Xiao, Boston College 

IDENTIFICATION USING STABILITY RESTRICTIONS 

Leandro Magnusson, Tulane University 

Co-Author: Sophocles Mavroeidis, Brown University 

11:15 - 12:45 NONSTATIONARY TIME SERIES (ECO) 

Chairperson: Offer Lieberman, University of Haifa 

EXPONENTIALS OF UNIT ROOT PROCESSES 

Robert de Jong, Ohio State University 

LINEAR TRENDS AND INITIAL CONDITIONS IN LONG MEMORY 

TIME SERIES 

Heiko Rachinger, Universidad Carlos III 

A SIMILARITY-BASED APPROACH TO TIME-VARYING 

COEFFICIENT NONSTATIONARY AUTOREGRESSION 

Room 5E 

Room 5I 

Room 5J

Offer Lieberman, University of Haifa 

11:15 - 12:45 MOMENT INEQUALITIES I (ECO) 

Chairperson: Donald Andrews, Yale University 

BOUNDING ENDOGENOUS PARAMETERS WITH GENERALIZED 

INSTRUMENTAL MOMENT INEQUALITIES 

JinYoung Choi, Boston College 

Co-Author: Myoung-jae Lee, Korea University 

ESTIMATION AND INFERENCE FOR UNCONDITIONAL MOMENT 

INEQUALITY RESTRICTIONS MODELS ESTIMATED VIA GMM AND 

GENERALIZED EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD 

Nicky Grant, University of Cambridge 

Co-Author: Smith Richard, University of Cambridge 

INFERENCE BASED ON CONDITIONAL MOMENT INEQUALITIES 

Donald Andrews, Yale University 

Co-Author: Xiaoxia Shi, Yale University 


13:00 - 14:00 PLENARY POLICY PANEL III 

Chairperson: Jonathan Levin, Stanford University 

PATENTS: PROS AND CONS FOR INNOVATION AND EFFICIENCY 

Philippe Aghion, Harvard University, Nicholas Bloom, Stanford 

University, Hugo Hopenhayn, UCLA and Scott Stern, Northwestern 

University 


14:15 - 16:15 DECISIONS - LEARNING AND IMITATION (THY) 

Chairperson: Tymon Tatur, Bonn University 

SUBJECTIVITY IN INDUCTIVE INFERENCE 

Larry Samuelson, Yale University 

Co-Author: Itzhak (Tzachi) Gilboa, HEC and Tel Aviv University 

MODELING THE CHANGE OF PARADIGM: NON-BAYESIAN 

REACTIONS TO UNEXPECTED NEWS 

Pietro Ortoleva, California Institute of Technology 

UNBEATABLE IMITATION 

Burkhard Schipper, University of California, Davis 

Co-Authors: Peter Duersch, University of Heidelberg and Joerg 

Oechssler, University of Heidelberg 

ON AN EVOLUTIONARY DYNAMIC WITH ENDOGENOUS 

EXPERIMENTATION RATES 

Tymon Tatur, Bonn University 

14:15 - 16:15 MECHANISM DESIGN IV (THY) 

Chairperson: Luca V. A. Colombo, Catholic 

University - Milano 




Room 3A

PROCUREMENT AND DEBT 

Malin Arve, Toulouse School of Economics 

A DYNAMIC MODEL OF THE RESEARCH UNIVERSITY 

Maria Yudkevich, Higher School of Economics, Moscow 

Co-Author: Irina Khovanskaya, Higher School of Economics, Moscow 

PUBLIC-GOOD PROVISION IN A LARGE ECONOMY 

Felix Bierbrauer, Max Planck Institute 

Co-Author: Martin Hellwig, Max Planck Institute 

THE WELFARE IMPLICATIONS OF COSTLY INFORMATION 

PROVISION 

Luca V. A. Colombo, Catholic University - Milano 

Co-Author: Gianluca Femminis, Catholic University - Milano 

14:15 - 16:15 FOUNDATIONS (THY) 

Chairperson: Jie Zheng, Washington University in 

Saint Louis 

KNIGHTIAN GAMES AND ROBUSTNESS TO AMBIGUITY 

Ronald Stauber, Australian National University 

WHAT IS BACKWARD INDUCTION? 

Amanda Friedenberg, Arizona State University 

Co-Author: Adam Brandenburger, New York University 

DO YOU THINK ABOUT WHAT I THINK YOU THINK? FINITE BELIEF 

HIERARCHIES IN GAMES 

Willemien Kets, Santa Fe Institute 

STRONG BUBBLES AND COMMON EXPECTED BUBBLES IN A 

FINITE HORIZON MODEL 

Jie Zheng, Washington University in Saint Louis 

14:15 - 16:15 PRINCIPAL-AGENT MODELS II (THY) 

Chairperson: Tsung-sheng Tsai, National Tsing Hua 

University 

MORAL HAZARD, MINIMUM PAYMENTS, OUTSIDE OPTIONS, AND 

MARKET OUTCOMES 

Ohad Kadan, Washington University in St. Louis 

PAYING FOR NOT BUYING: INCENTIVE CONTRACTS WITH 

ENDOGENOUS INFORMATION ACQUISITION 

Natalia Kovrijnykh, Arizona State University 

Co-Author: Hector Chade, Arizona State University 

INCORPORATING MILESTONES IN CONTRACTS 

Bin Chen, School of Economics and Finance, The University of Hong 

Kong 

THE ALLOCATION OF DECISION-MAKING AUTHORITY WHEN 

PRINCIPAL HAS REPUTATION CONCERNS 

Tsung-sheng Tsai, National Tsing Hua University 

Co-Author: Yasunari Tamada, Keio University 

Room 3B 

Room 3C 

14:15 - 16:15 EXPERIMENTS ON THE ROLE OF GENDER IN Room Yellow River Hall

OUTCOMES (EXP) 

Chairperson: Huibin Yan, UCSC 

COMPETITION FOR TROPHY TRIGGERS MALE GENEROSITY 

Xiaofei (Sophia) Pan, ICES, George Mason University 

Co-Author: Daniel Houser, George Mason University 

GENDER, COMPETITIVENESS AND SOCIALIZATION AT A YOUNG 

AGE: EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE FROM A MATRILINEAL AND A 

PATRIARCHAL SOCIETY 

Seda Ertac, Koc University 

Co-Authors: Steffen Andersen, Copenhagen Business School, Uri 

Gneezy, , John List, University of Chicago and Sandra Maximiano, 

Purdue University Krannert School of Management 

THE IMPACT OF FEMALE SEX HORMONES ON COMPETITIVENESS 

Thomas Buser, University of Amsterdam 

GENDER DIFFERENCES IN DICTATOR GAMES IN A MATRILINEAL 

AND A PATRIARCHAL SOCIETIES 

Huibin Yan, UCSC 

14:15 - 16:15 EXPERIMENTS ON COMPETITION AND MARKET 

DESIGN (EXP) 

Chairperson: Jean-Louis Rulliere, University of Lyon 

SCREENING, COMPETITION AND JOB DESIGN 

Klaus Schmidt, University of Munich 

Co-Authors: Bjorn Bartling, University of Zurich and Ernst Fehr, 


MONEY TALKS? AN EXPERIMENTAL STUDY OF REBATE IN 

REPUTATION SYSTEM DESIGN 

Lingfang (Ivy) Li, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

Co-Author: Erte Xiao, Carnegie Mellon University 

CAN CONTRACTS SOLVE THE HOLD-UP PROBLEM? 

EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCE 

Eva Hoppe, University of Cologne 

Co-Author: Patrick Schmitz, University of Cologne 

BREAKING COLLUSION IN AUCTIONS THROUGH SPECULATION: 

AN EXPERIMENT ON CO2 EMISSION PERMIT MARKET 

Jean-Louis Rulliere, University of Lyon 

Co-Authors: Michel MOUGEOT, , Florence NAEGELEN, and Benjamin 

PELLOUX, University of Lyon 

14:15 - 16:15 TERM STRUCTURE MODELS II (FIN) 

Chairperson: Christopher Otrok, University of 

Virginia 

TERM PREMIA AND THE NEWS 

Michael Bauer, University of California, San Diego 

A DSGE MODEL OF THE TERM STRUCTURE WITH REGIME SHIFTS 

Oreste Tristani, European Central Bank 

A MULTIFREQUENCY THEORY OF THE INTEREST RATE TERM 

Room 3H 

Room 5B

STRUCTURE 

Adlai Fisher, University of British Columbia 

Co-Authors: Laurent Calvet, HEC Paris and Liuren Wu, Baruch College 

NEWS SHOCKS AND THE SLOPE OF THE TERM STRUCTURE OF 

INTEREST RATES 

Christopher Otrok, University of Virginia 

Co-Author: Andre Kurmann, University-Quebec Montreal 

14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING V (FIN) 

Chairperson: M. Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge 

University and USC 

BEAUTY CONTESTS AND ASSET PRICES UNDER ASYMMETRIC 

INFORMATION 

Noritaka Kudoh, Hokkaido University 

Co-Author: Ryuichiro Ishikawa, University of Tsukuba 

HIGHER ORDER BELIEFS AND ASSET MARKET DYNAMICS 

Liangfei Qiu, Department of Economics, UT Austin 

Co-Author: Ho-Mou Wu, CCER, NSD, Peking University 

A SENTIMENT-BASED EXPLANATION OF THE FORWARD PREMIUM 

PUZZLE 

Jianfeng Yu, University of Minnesota 

OPTIMALITY AND DIVERSIFIABILITY OF MEAN VARIANCE AND 

ARBITRAGE PRICING PORTFOLIOS 

M. Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University and USC 

Co-Author: Paolo Zaffaroni, Imperial College, UK 

14:15 - 16:15 CRISES / CRASHES (FIN) 

Chairperson: Ferre De Graeve, Sveriges Riksbank 

CREDIT CONDITIONS AND RECOVERIES FROM RECESSIONS 

ASSOCIATED WITH FINANCIAL CRISES 

Prakash Kannan, IMF 

A LARGE TRADER IN BUBBLES AND CRASHES: AN APPLICATION 

TO CURRENCY ATTACKS 

Mei Li, Economics department, University of Guelph 

Co-Author: Frank Milne, Queen's University 

FINANCIAL CRISES AND THE EVAPORATION OF TRUST 

Kartik Anand, Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics 

Co-Authors: Prasanna Gai, The Australian National University, Crawford 

School of Economics and Government and Matteo Marsilii, ICTP Trieste 

INFORMATION-BASED BANK RUNS OR PANICS? 

Ferre De Graeve, Sveriges Riksbank 

14:15 - 16:15 TWO-SIDED MARKETS I (IND) 

Chairperson: Matthieu BOUVARD, McGill 

University, Desautels Faculty of Management 

WHEN TO ALLOW BUYERS TO SELL? BUNDLING IN MIXED TWO- 

SIDED MARKETS 

Room 5C 

Room 5F 

Room 3D

Ming Gao, London Business School 

MIXED BUNDLING IN TWO-SIDED MARKETS: THEORY AND 

EVIDENCE 

Yong Chao, Department of Economics, University of Southern California 

Co-Author: Timothy Derdenger, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie 

Mellon University 

ISSUER COMPETITION AND THE CREDIT CARD INTERCHANGE 

FEE PUZZLE 

Zhu Wang, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City 

Co-Author: Jean-Charles Rochet, Universty of Zurich - TSE 

HUMOURING BOTH PARTIES: A MODEL OF TWO-SIDED 

REPUTATION 

Matthieu BOUVARD, McGill University, Desautels Faculty of 

Management 

Co-Author: Raphael Levy, European University Institute 

14:15 - 16:15 STRATEGIC ENTRY: EMPIRICAL STUDIES (IND) 

Chairperson: Cristian Huse, Stockholm School of 

Economics 

ESTIMATING A MODEL OF STRATEGIC NETWORK CHOICE: THE 

CONVENIENCE-STORE INDUSTRY IN OKINAWA 

Nishida Mitsukuni, Johns Hopkins University 

BRAND EFFECTS AND ENTRY DETERRENCE: AN EXAMINATION 

OF SPATIAL PREEMPTION 

Nathan Wilson, University of Michigan 

DISCRETE GAMES WITH FLEXIBLE INFORMATION STRUCTURES: 

AN APPLICATION TO LOCAL GROCERY MARKETS 

Paul Grieco, Northwestern University 

ESTIMATING THE ‘COORDINATED EFFECTS’ OF MERGERS 

Cristian Huse, Stockholm School of Economics 

Co-Author: Peter Davis, Competition Commission 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL FINANCE (INT) 

Chairperson: Robert Kollmann, ECARES, Universite 

Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR 

FINANCIAL GLOBALIZATION AND ANIMAL SPIRITS 

Takuma Kunieda, City University of Hong Kong 

Room 3E 


EXPLAINING EXTERNAL ASSET ALLOCATION: A MULTI-COUNTRY 

MODEL WITH PREFERENCE HETEROGENEITY 

Sergejs Saksonovs, University of Cambridge 

MONEY, OUTPUT, ASSET PRICES AND INFLATION: A TWO- 

COUNTRY PORTFOLIO MODEL WITH HETEROGENEOUS BELIEFS 

FOR THE EURO AREA AND THE UNITED STATES 

Roberto De Santis, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: Carlo Favero, Bocconi University 

LIMITED ASSET MARKET PARTICIPATION AND THE 

CONSUMPTION-REAL EXCHANGE RATE ANOMALY

Robert Kollmann, ECARES, Universite Libre de Bruxelles and CEPR 

14:15 - 16:15 INTERNATIONAL MACROECONOMICS IV (INT) 

Chairperson: Andrei Zlate, Board of Governors of 

the Federal Reserve System 


UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECT OF PRODUCTIVITY CHANGES ON 

INTERNATIONAL RELATIVE PRICES: THE ROLE OF NEWS 

SHOCKS 

Jian Wang, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas 

Co-Author: Deokwoo Nam, City University of Hong Kong 

VALUATION EFFECTS WITH TREND AND TRANSITORY 

PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS 

Ha Nguyen, The World Bank 

INTERNATIONAL CAPITAL FLOWS AND WORLD PRODUCTION 

EFFICIENCY 

Haiping Zhang, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Jürgen von Hagen, University of Bonn, Indiana University, 

CEPR 

IMMIGRATION, REMITTANCES AND BUSINESS CYCLES 

Andrei Zlate, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System 

Co-Author: Federico Mandelman, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta 

14:15 - 16:15 JOB SEARCH AND HIRING (LAB) 

Chairperson: Christian Dustmann, University 

College London 

WAGE AND PRODUCTIVITY DISPERSION: LABOR QUALITY OR 

RENT SHARING? 

Jesper Bagger, Royal Holloway, University of London 

Co-Authors: Bent Jesper Christensen, University of Aarhus and 

CREATES and Dale Mortensen, Northwestern University 

BENEFIT DURATIONS AND JOB SEARCH BEHAVIOR 

Su-Hsin Chang, Johns Hopkins University 

ETHNIC AND GEOGRAPHIC NETWORKS INFLUENCE JOB 

SEGREGATION 

Michael Ransom, Brigham Young University 

Co-Author: Laura Giuliano, University of Miami 

REFERRAL-BASED JOB SEARCH NETWORKS 

Christian Dustmann, University College London 

Co-Authors: Albrecht Glitz, Pompeu Fabra and Uta Schoenberg, UCL 

14:15 - 16:15 PROGRAM EVALUATION I (LAB) 

Chairperson: Pinto Rodrigo, University of Chicago 

DYNAMIC EVALUATION OF JOB SEARCH TRAINING 

Stephen Kastoryano, University of Amsterdam 

SHORT-TERM TRAINING PROGRAMS FOR IMMIGRANTS: DO 

EFFECTS DIFFER FROM NATIVES AND WHY? 

Thomas Walter, ZEW Centre for European Economic Research, 

Mannheim 

Room 3I 

Room 5J

Co-Authors: Alisher Aldashev, Kazakh-British Technical University of 

Almaty and Stephan Thomsen, University of Magdeburg 

THE EFFECTS OF TAX INCENTIVES FOR SMALL FIRMS ON 

EMPLOYMENT LEVELS 

Rodrigo Moura, EPGE/FGV 

Co-Author: Carlos Henrique Courseuil, IPEA 

A REANALYSIS OF THE HIGH/SCOPE PERRY PRESCHOOL 

PROGRAM 

Pinto Rodrigo, University of Chicago 

Co-Authors: James Heckman, University of Chicago, Seong Hyeok 

Moon, Department of Economics, University of Chicago , Peter Savelyev, 

The University of Chicago, Department of Economics and Adam Yavitz, 

University of Chicago 

14:15 - 16:15 THE ROLE OF SCHOOLS (LAB) 

Chairperson: Giacomo De Giorgi, Stanford 

University 

WHO BENEFITS FROM KIPP? 

Christopher Walters, MIT 

Co-Authors: Joshua Angrist, MIT, susan dynarski, , thomas kane, and 

parag pathak, 

LEADERSHIP EFFECTS: SCHOOL PRINCIPALS AND STUDENT 

OUTCOMES 

Michael Coelli, University of Melbourne 

Co-Author: David Green, University of British Columbia 

PEER EFFECTS AND STUDENT ACHIEVEMENT: EVIDENCE FROM 

ELEMENTARY TO MIDDLE SCHOOL TRANSITION 

Hongliang Zhang, Chinese University of Hong Kong 

UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL INTERACTIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE 

CLASSROOM 

Giacomo De Giorgi, Stanford University 

Co-Author: Michele Pellizzari, IGIER-Bocconi University 

14:15 - 16:15 WAGES AND MACROECONOMIC OUTCOMES 

(MAX) 

Chairperson: Fatih Guvenen, University of 

Minnesota 

SOME EVIDENCE ON THE IMPORTANCE OF STICKY WAGES 

Alessandro Barattieri, Boston College 

Co-Authors: Susanto Basu, Boston College and NBER and Peter 

Gottschalk, Boston College and IZA 

EX-ANTE SELECTION AND EX-POST LEARNING: IMPLICATIONS 

FOR LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES 

Gonul Sengul, European University Institute 

THE EFFECT OF WAGE RISK AND CROSS-SECTIONAL 

AGGREGATION ON THE LABOR SUPPLY RESPONSE IN 

MACROECONOMIC MODELS 

Juan Contreras, Congressional Budget Office 


Room Gran Melia B2

Co-Author: Sven Sinclair, Social Security Administration 

INFERRING LABOR INCOME RISK FROM ECONOMIC CHOICES: AN 

INDIRECT INFERENCE APPROACH 

Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota 

Co-Author: Anthony Smith, Yale University 

14:15 - 16:15 MACROECONOMIC DYNAMICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Santanu Roy, Southern Methodist 

University 


A UNIFIED SOLUTION TO INVENTORY PUZZLES 

Huntley Schaller, Carleton University 

Co-Authors: Louis Maccini, Johns Hopkins University and Bartholomew 

Moore, Fordham University 

INFORMATION HETEROGENEITY BY FIRM SIZE AND BUSINESS 

CYCLE 

Jie Cai, University of New South Wales, School of Economics 

UNCERTAINTY AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: EVIDENCE FROM 

BUSINESS SURVEY DATA 

Steffen Elstner, IFO Institute Munich 

Co-Author: Eric Sims, Notre Dame University 

STOCHASTIC GROWTH WITH SHORT-RUN PREDICTION OF 

SHOCKS 

Santanu Roy, Southern Methodist University 

Co-Author: Itzhak Zilcha, Tel Aviv University and Southern Methodist 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 LIFE CYCLE STUDIES I (MAX) 

Chairperson: Wenli Li, Philadelphia Federal Reserve 

Bank 


THE LIFE CYCLE AND THE BUSINESS CYCLE OF WAGE RISK: A 

CROSS-COUNTRY COMPARISON 

Falko Juessen, TU Dortmund and IZA 

Co-Author: Christian Bayer, University of Bonn 

LIFE CYCLE EARNINGS AND THE HOUSEHOLD SAVING PUZZLE IN 

A FAST-GROWING ECONOMY 

Zheng Song, Fudan University 

Co-Author: Dennis Yang , Chinese University of Hong Kong 

ON THE PERSISTENCE OF INCOME SHOCKS OVER THE LIFE 

CYCLE: EVIDENCE AND IMPLICATIONS 

Fatih Karahan, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Author: Serdar Ozkan, University of Pennsylvania 

CONSUMPTION AND TIME USE OVER THE LIFE CYCLE 

Wenli Li, Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank 

Co-Authors: Mike Dotsey, and Fang Yang, 

14:15 - 16:15 MONETARY POLICY IV (MAX) 

Chairperson: Ana Galvao, Queen Mary University of 

London 

Room Gran Melia F5

WORLD FOOD PRICES AND MONETARY POLICY 

Luis Catao, Inter_American Development Bank 

Co-Author: Roberto Chang, Rutgers University 

MEASUREMENT ERRORS AND POLICY EVALUATION IN THE 

FREQUENCY DOMAIN 

Xiangrong Yu, University of Wisconsin - Madison 

INFLATION TARGETING AND RELATIVE PRICE VARIABILITY: 

WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES INFLATION TARGETING MAKE? 

Chi-Young Choi, University of Texas at Arlington 

Co-Authors: Young Se Kim, University of North Texas and Roisin 

O'Sullivan, Smith College 

ENDOGENOUS MONETARY POLICY REGIMES AND THE GREAT 

MODERATION 

Ana Galvao, Queen Mary University of London 

Co-Author: Massimiliano Marcellino, European University Institute 

14:15 - 16:15 TAXATION I (PUB) 

Chairperson: Jochen Mierau, University of 

Groningen 

THE OPTIMALITY OF INDIRECT TAXATION 

Wan Junmin, Faculty of Economics, Fukuoka University 

Co-Author: Fujimoto Hiroaki, Faculty of Economics, Fukuoka University 

INCOME TAXATION IN A LIFE CYCLE MODEL WITH HUMAN 

CAPITAL 

Michael Keane, University of Technology Sydney 

TWO-TIER GOVERNMENTS, REDISTRIBUTIVE POLICIES AND 

PUBLIC GOOD PROVISION 

Pierre Boyer, Toulouse School of Economics (GREMAQ) and EHESS 

GROWTH EFFECTS OF CONSUMPTION AND LABOUR-INCOME 

TAXATION IN AN OVERLAPPING-GENERATIONS LIFE-CYCLE 

MODEL 

Jochen Mierau, University of Groningen 

Co-Author: Ben Heijdra, University of Groningen 

14:15 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT: CHINA'S TRANSFORMATION 

(DEV) 

Chairperson: Thomas Vendryes, Paris School of 

Economics, French Centre for Research on 

Contemporary China 

Room 3G 


EDUCATION’S ROLE IN CHINA’S STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION 

Soohyung Lee, University of Maryland, College Park 

Co-Author: Benjamin Malin, Federal Reserve Board 

RETURN MIGRANTS: THE RISE OF NEW ENTREPRENEURS IN 

RURAL CHINA 

Hui Xu, GATE - University of Lyon - ENS-LSH 

Co-Author: Sylvie Démurger, CNRS 

ACCOUNTING FOR RISING WAGES IN CHINA 

Suqin Ge, Virginia Tech

Co-Author: Dennis Yang , Chinese University of Hong Kong 

LAND RIGHTS INSECURITY AND TEMPORARY MIGRATION IN 

RURAL CHINA. 

Thomas Vendryes, Paris School of Economics, French Centre for 

Research on Contemporary China 

Co-Authors: Maelys de la Rupelle, Paris School of Economics (PSE), 

Quheng Deng, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS) and Shi Li, 

Beijing Normal University (BNU) 

14:15 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT: EMPIRICAL ISSUES I (DEV) 

Chairperson: Shiyi Chen, Fudan University 

THE BLESSING OF NATURAL RESOURCES: EVIDENCE FROM A 

PERUVIAN GOLD MINE 

Juan Pablo Rud, Royal Holloway, University of London 

Co-Author: Fernando Aragon, London School of Economics 

ACCESS, SORTING AND ACHIEVEMENT: THE SHORT-RUN 

EFFECTS OF FREE PRIMARY EDUCATION IN KENYA 

Isaac Mbiti, Southern Methodist University 

Co-Author: Adrienne Lucas, Wellesley College 

MARKET ACCESS AFFECTS RURAL INCOME: FARM VS. NON- 

FARM ACTIVITIES IN CHINA 

Zhaoyang Hou, National University of Singapore 


STRUCTURAL BONUS, PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE AND 

INDUSTRIALIZATION IN POST-REFORM CHINA 

Shiyi Chen, Fudan University 

Co-Authors: Gary Jefferson, Brandeis Univeristy and Jun Zhang, Fudan 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 FINANCIAL ECONOMETRICS II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Princeton 

University 


MODELLING MULTIVARIATE INTEREST RATES USING TIME- 

VARYING COPULAS AND REDUCIBLE NON-LINEAR STOCHASTIC 

DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS 

Ruijun Bu, Liverpool University 

Co-Authors: Kaddour Hadri, Queen''s University Belfast and Michel 

Lubrano, 

ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS VIA FILTERING FOR ULTRA-HIGH 

FREQUENCY DATA 

Yong Zeng, University of Missouri at Kansas City 

Co-Authors: Xing Hu, Princeton University and David Kuipers, University 

of Missouri at Kansas City 

CRISIS TRANSMISSION AND CONTAGION: WHICH TEST TO USE? 

Renee Fry, Australian National University 

Co-Authors: Mardi Dungey, Cambridge and University of Tasmania and 

Vance Martin, University of Melbourne 

MODELING FINANCIAL CONTAGION USING MUTUALLY EXCITING 

JUMP PROCESSES 

Yacine Ait-Sahalia, Princeton University

Co-Authors: Julio Cacho-Diaz, and Roger Laeven, CentER, Tilburg 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 NONPARAMETRIC NONSEPARABLE MODELS 

(ECO) 

Chairperson: Anne Vanhems, Toulouse Business 

School, Toulouse School of Economics 

IDENTIFICATION IN NONSEPARABLE MODELS BY 

NONPARAMETRIC COPULA RESTRICTIONS 

Alexander Torgovitsky, Yale University 

CONTROL FUNCTIONS FOR NON-SEPARABLE SIMULTANEOUS 

EQUATIONS MODELS WITHOUT INDEPENDENCE CONDITIONS 

Kyoo il Kim, University of Minnesota 

Co-Author: Amil Petrin, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 

A NONPARAMETRIC BOOTSTRAP TEST OF EXOGENEITY TEST 

Jinhyun Lee, UCL 

WELFARE ANALYSIS USING NONSEPARABLE MODELS 

Anne Vanhems, Toulouse Business School, Toulouse School of 

Economics 

Co-Author: Stefan Hoderlein, Brown University 

14:15 - 16:15 BOOTSTRAP (ECO) 

Chairperson: Matias Cattaneo, University of 

Michigan 

A KERNEL BASED BOOTSTRAP METHOD FOR DEPENDENT 

PROCESSES 

Paulo Parente, University of Exeter 

Co-Author: Richard J. Smith, University of Cambridge 

THE BOOTSTRAP IN THRESHOLD REGRESSION 

Ping Yu, University of Auckland 

BOOTSTRAPPING REALIZED MULTIVARIATE VOLATILITY 

MEASURES 

Prosper Dovonon, 

Co-Authors: Silvia Goncalves, University of Montreal and Nour Meddahi, 

Toulouse School of Economics 

BOOTSTRAPPING DENSITY-WEIGHTED AVERAGE DERIVATIVES 

Matias Cattaneo, University of Michigan 

Co-Authors: Richard Crump, Federal Reserve Bank of New York and 

Michael Jansson, UC-Berkeley and CREATES 

14:15 - 16:15 SET ESTIMATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Kyungchul Song, University of 

Pennsylvania 

INFERENCE IN PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED NONPARAMETRIC 

INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES MODELS 

Nese Yildiz, University of Rochester 

Co-Author: Yevgeniy Kovchegov, Oregon State University Department of 

Mathematics 

Room 5A 

Room 5D 

Room 5E

A DUAL APPROACH TO INFERENCE FOR PARTIALLY IDENTIFIED 

ECONOMETRIC MODELS 

Hiroaki Kaido, University of California, San Diego 

TESTING FOR INSTRUMENT INDEPENDENCE IN THE SELECTION 

MODEL 

Toru Kitagawa, Lecturer 

POINT DECISIONS FOR INTERVAL-IDENTIFIED PARAMETERS 

Kyungchul Song, University of Pennsylvania 

14:15 - 16:15 MOMENT INEQUALITIES II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Richard Blundell, University College 

London 

ASYMPTOTIC SIZE DISTORTIONS IN LOCALLY MISSPECIFIED 

MOMENT INEQUALITY MODELS 

Ivan Canay, Northwestern 

Co-Authors: Federico Bugni, Duke University and Patrik Guggenberger, 

UC San Diego, Department of Economics 

MODEL SELECTION TESTS FOR NONNESTED MOMENT 

INEQUALITY MODELS 

Xiaoxia Shi, Yale University 

BAYESIAN ANALYSIS IN MOMENT INEQUALITY MODELS 

Yuan Liao, Northwestern University 

Co-Author: Wenxin Jiang, Northwestern University 

STOCHASTIC DEMAND AND REVEALED PREFERENCE 

Richard Blundell, University College London 

Co-Authors: Dennis Kristensen, Columbia University and Rosa Matzkin, 

University of California, Los Angeles 

14:15 - 16:15 EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD (ECO) 

Chairperson: Sung Yong Park, University of Illinois 

EXISTENCE PROBLEMS WITH EMPIRICAL LIKELIHOOD AND 

RELATED ECONOMETRIC METHODS 

Marian Grendar, Bel University 

Co-Author: George Judge, UC Berkeley 

ROBUST EXPONENTIAL TILTING SPECIFICATION TEST UNDER 

MOMENT RESTRICTION AND LOCAL PARAMETRIC 

MISSPECIFICATIONS 

Haiqi Li, WISE, Xiamen University 

Co-Author: Sung Yong Park, University of Illinois 

EDGEWORTH EXPANSIONS FOR GMM AND GEL ESTIMATORS 

Gubhinder Kundhi, Carleton University 

Co-Author: Paul Rilstone, York University 

INFORMATION THEORETIC APPROACHES TO DENSITY 

ESTIMATION WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE U.S. PERSONAL 

INCOME DATA 

Sung Yong Park, University of Illinois 

Co-Author: Anil Bera, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign 

Room 5H 

Room 5I


16:45 - 18:15 SHANGHAI LECTURE 

Chairperson: Daniel McFadden, University of 

California, Berkeley 

NONSEPARABLE MODELS FOR PANEL DATA 

Whitney Newey, MIT 

Room Grand Ballroom

SATURDAY 21 AUGUST 2010 


09:00 - 10:45 FOUNDATIONS 

Chairperson: Stephen Morris, Princeton University 

Discussant: Wojciech Olszewski, Northwestern 

University 


STRATEGIES AND INTERACTIVE BELIEFS IN DYNAMIC GAMES 

Pierpaolo Battigalli, Bocconi University and Dov Samet, Tel Aviv 

University 

CALIBRATION: RESPICE, ADSPICE, PROSPICE 

Dean Foster, University of Pennsylvania and Rakesh Vohra, 


09:00 - 10:45 GROWTH 

Chairperson: Philippe Aghion, Harvard University 

Discussant: Antonio Ciccone, Universitat Pompeu 

Fabra 

DIRECTED TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION AND PRODUCTIVITY 

DIFFERENCES 

Fabrizio Zilibotti, University of Zurich 

Co-Authors: Gino Gancia, CREI and Andreas Mueller, IIES, Stockholm 

University 

MISALLOCATION AND INPUT-OUTPUT ECONOMICS 

Chad Jones, Stanford GSB 

09:00 - 10:45 TIME SERIES AND PANELS 

Chairperson: James Stock, Harvard University 

Discussant: Michael Jansson, UC Berkeley 

PANEL DATA MODELS AND FACTOR ANALYSIS 

Jushan Bai, Columbia University 

SEMIPARAMETRIC TIME SERIES: A SELECTIVE SURVEY 

Xiaohong Chen, Yale University 

Co-Author: Oliver Linton, London School of Economics 


11:15 - 12:45 COMPUTATION IN DYNAMIC GAMES (COM) 

Chairperson: Karl Schmedders, 

UNIQUENESS OF OBLIVIOUS EQUILIBRIUM IN DYNAMIC 

DISCRETE GAMES 

Joao Macieira, Department of Economics, Virginia Tech 



SIMPLE MARKOV-PERFECT INDUSTRY DYNAMICS 

Nan Yang, VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute 

Co-Authors: Jaap Abbring, CentER, Department of Econometrics & OR, 

Tilburg University and Jeffrey Campbell, Federal Reserve Bank of 

Room 3G

Chicago and NBER 

FINDING ALL PURE STRATEGY EQUILIBRIA IN DYNAMIC AND 

STATIC GAMES WITH CONTINUOUS STRATEGIES 

Karl Schmedders, 

Co-Authors: Ken Judd, Stanford University and Philipp Renner, 


11:15 - 12:45 PRINCIPLE-AGENT MODELS III - ALTERNATIVE 

PERSPECTIVES (THY) 

Chairperson: Hector Chade, Arizona State 

University 

ECONOMIC JURY RECRUITMENT AND MANAGEMENT 

Daniel McFadden, University of California, Berkeley 

CONTRACTIBLE CONTRACTS IN COMMON AGENCY PROBLEMS 

Balázs Szentes, 

MORAL HAZARD WITH UNOBSERVABLE CONSUMPTION 

Hector Chade, Arizona State University 

11:15 - 12:45 MECHANISM DESIGN V (THY) 

Chairperson: Dan Cao, Massachusetts Institute of 

Technology 

OPTIMAL DYNAMIC AUCTIONS FOR DURABLE GOODS: 

Simon Board, UCLA 

Co-Author: Andy Skrzypacz, Stanford 

SECOND-HAND MARKET AND RATIONING IN DURABLE GOODS 

MONOPOLY 

Ting Liu, Michigan State University 

Co-Author: Pasquale Schiraldi, London School of Economics and 

Political Science 

RACING: WHEN SHOULD WE HANDICAP THE ADVANTAGED 

COMPETITOR? 

Dan Cao, Massachusetts Institute of Technology 

11:15 - 12:45 MATCHING AND MARKETS II (THY) 

Chairperson: Helmut Bester, Free University Berlin 


ASSORTATIVE MATCHING THROUGH SIGNALS 

Friedrich Poeschel, University of Rome "Tor Vergata" and University of 

Oxford 

MITIGATING INSPECTION AND SHOW COSTS WITH 

INTERMEDIARIES IN FRICTIONAL MATCHING MARKETS 

Xianwen Shi, University of Toronto 

Co-Author: Aloysius Siow, University of Toronto 

INVESTMENTS AND THE HOLDUP PROBLEM IN A MATCHING 

MARKET 

Helmut Bester, Free University Berlin 

11:15 - 12:45 REPEATED GAMES II (THY) 

Chairperson: Julio Gonzalez-Diaz, University of 

Room 3A 

Room 3C 

Room 3D

Santiago de Compostela 

FOLK THEOREM IN A TWO-PLAYER PRISONERS' DILEMMA 

Takuo Sugaya, Ph D Student, Princeton University 

RECURSIVE METHODS IN DISCOUNTED STOCHASTIC GAMES: AN 

ALGORITHM FOR Δ → 1 AND A FOLK THEOREM 

Johannes Hörner, Yale University 

Co-Authors: Takuo Sugaya, Princeton University, Satoru Takahashi, 

Princeton University and Nicolas Vieille, HEC Paris 

REPEATED ANONYMOUS RANDOM MATCHING GAMES: 

COMMUNITY ENFORCEMENT BEYOND THE PRISONER'S DILEMMA 

Julio Gonzalez-Diaz, University of Santiago de Compostela 

Co-Author: Joyee Deb, New York University 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON LEARNING AND SIGNALING 

IN GAMES (EXP) 

Chairperson: Zacharias Maniadis, Bocconi 

University, Decision Science Dpt 

LEARNING IN NETWORK GAMES 

Jaromir Kovarik, University of the Basque Country 

Co-Author: Friederike Mengel, 

EXPERIMENTS ON EMERGENCE OF LEADERSHIP IN TEAMS 

Hideo Suehiro, Kobe University 

Co-Authors: Koji Abe, Kobe University and Hajime Kobayashi, Osaka 

Prefecture University 

AGGREGATE INFORMATION AND THE CENTIPEDE GAME: A 

THEORETICAL AND EXPERIMENTAL STUDY 

Zacharias Maniadis, Bocconi University, Decision Science Dpt 

11:15 - 12:45 EXPERIMENTS ON STRATEGIC 

SOPHISTICATION IN GAMES (EXP) 

Chairperson: Nicolaas Vriend, Queen Mary, 

University of London 

A WINDOW OF COGNITION: EYETRACKING THE REASONING 

PROCESS IN SPATIAL BEAUTY CONTEST GAMES 

Joseph Tao-yi Wang, National Taiwan University 

Co-Authors: Chun-Ting Chen, National Taiwan University and Chen-Ying 

Huang, National Taiwan University 

ON THE PERSISTENCE OF STRATEGIC SOPHISTICATION 

Sotiris Georganas, Royal Holloway - U of London 

Co-Authors: Paul J Healy, OSU and Roberto Weber, Carnegie Mellon 

Uiversity 

ON THE ROLE OF NON-EQUILIBRIUM FOCAL POINTS AS 

COORDINATION DEVICES 

Nicolaas Vriend, Queen Mary, University of London 

Co-Author: Antoni Bosch-Domènech, Universitat Pompeu Fabra 

11:15 - 12:45 VOLATILITY III (FIN) 

Chairperson: Nour Meddahi, Toulouse School of 

Economics 

Room 3E 

Room 3I 

Room 5A

LONG-RUN CROSS-SECTIONAL RETURNS AND MARKET 

VARIANCE 

Benoit Perron, Universite de Montreal 

Co-Author: Federico Bandi, Johns Hopkins University 

SKEWNESS MEASURES AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY SKEW 

José Fajardo, Getulio Vargas Foundation 

Co-Author: Ernesto Mordecki, Universida de la republica del uruguay 

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF REALIZED VOLATILITY 

Nour Meddahi, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Peter Christoffersen, McGill University, Bruno Feunou, Duke 

University and Kris Jacobs, McGill University 

11:15 - 12:45 ASSET PRICING VI (FIN) 

Chairperson: Pablo Beker, University of Warwick - 

Department of Economics 

FEAR OF DEFAULT AND VOLATILITY IN A DYNAMIC FINANCIAL- 

MARKET EQUILIBRIUM 

Emilio Osambela, Tepper School of Business, Carnegie Mellon 

University 

THE PUZZLING INVENTORY GROWTH RISK PREMIUM 

Xiaoji Lin, London School of Economics and Political Science 

Co-Author: Frederico Belo, University of Minnesota 

A GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM EXPLANATION FOR FINANCIAL 

MARKETS ANOMALIES: BELIEF HETEROGENEITY UNDER LIMITED 

ENFORCEABILITY 

Pablo Beker, University of Warwick - Department of Economics 

Co-Author: Emilio Espino, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 

11:15 - 12:45 TWO-SIDED MARKETS II (IND) 

Chairperson: Renato Gomes, Northwestern 

University 

TYING IN TWO-SIDED MARKETS 

Ting Li, School of Economics, Fudan University 

TWO-SIDED CERTIFICATION: THE MARKET FOR RATING 

AGENCIES 

Erik Fasten, Humboldt University Berlin 

Co-Author: Hofmann Dirk, Humboldt University Berlin 

MECHANISM DESIGN IN TWO-SIDED MARKETS: AUCTIONING 

USERS 

Renato Gomes, Northwestern University 

11:15 - 12:45 TRADE AND LABOR MARKETS (INT) 

Chairperson: Ronald Jones, University of Rochester 

Room 5B 

Room 3H 


TRADE AND UNEMPLOYMENT: WHAT DO THE DATA SAY? 

Hans-Jörg Schmerer, University of Tübingen and Hohenheim 

Co-Authors: Gabriel Felbermayr, University of Stuttgart-Hohenheim and 

Julien Prat, IAE-CSIC, Barcelona 

WAGE BARGAINING AND THE BOUNDARIES OF THE

MULTINATIONAL FIRM 

Maria Bas, CEPII and Paris School of Economics (PSE) 

Co-Author: Juan Carluccio, Paris School of Economics 

REAL WAGES AND NON-TRADED GOODS 

Ronald Jones, University of Rochester 

11:15 - 12:45 TRADE AND ENDOGENOUS TECHNOLOGY (INT) 

Chairperson: Ariel Burstein, University of California, 

Los Angeles 

CULTURE AND DIVERSITY IN KNOWLEDGE CREATION: THE 

STORY OF THE TOWER OF BABEL REVISITED 

Marcus Berliant, Washington University in St. Louis 

Co-Author: Masahisa Fujita, Konan University 

PATENT BREADTH IN AN INTERNATIONAL SETTING 

Ben Zissimos, Vanderbilt University 

GLOBALIZATION, TECHNOLOGY, AND THE SKILL PREMIUM 

Ariel Burstein, University of California, Los Angeles 

Co-Author: Jonathan Vogel, Columbia and NBER 

11:15 - 12:45 FERTILITY AND MARRIAGE (LAB) 

Chairperson: Katrien Stevens, University of Sydney 

DO COUPLES BARGAIN OVER FERTILITY? NEW EVIDENCE BASED 

ON CHILD PREFERENCE DATA 

Timo Hener, Ifo Institute 

THE UNWANTED: NEGATIVE OUTCOMES OVER THE LIFE CYCLE 

Wanchuan Lin, Peking University 

Co-Author: Juan Pantano, Washington University in St. Louis 

THE CAREER COST OF CHILDREN 

Katrien Stevens, University of Sydney 

Co-Authors: Jerome Adda, European University Institute and Christian 

Dustmann, University College London 

11:15 - 12:45 LABOR SUPPLY (LAB) 

Chairperson: Eugene Choo, University of Calgary 

Room 3B 

Room 5J 


TAXES AND TIME ALLOCATION: EVIDENCE FROM SINGLE WOMEN 

Alexander Gelber, Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, and 

NBER 

Co-Author: Joshua Mitchell, Harvard University 

EVALUATING A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF LABOR SUPPLY AND 

WELFARE PARTICIPATION: EVIDENCE FROM STATE WELFARE 

REFORM EXPERIMENTS 

Eleanor Choi, Princeton University 

THE COLLECTIVE MARRIAGE MATCHING MODEL: 

IDENTIFICATION, ESTIMATION AND TESTING 

Eugene Choo, University of Calgary 

Co-Authors: Shannon Seitz, Boston College and Aloysius Siow, 

University of Toronto

11:15 - 12:45 LABOR MARKET DYNAMICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Cheremukhin Anton, UCLA 

OIL PRICE SHOCKS AND LABOR MARKET FLUCTUATIONS 

Jose Ignacio Silva, Universitat de Girona 

Co-Authors: Javier Ordonez, Jaume I University and Hector Sala, 

Univesitat Autònoma de Barcelona 


DYNAMIC LABOR DEMAND IN CHINA: PUBLIC AND PRIVATE 

OBJECTIVES 

Russell Cooper, 

Co-Authors: Guan Gong, Shanghai University Finance and Economics 

and Ping Yan, CCER, Peking University 

LABOR MATCHING MODEL: PUTTING THE PIECES TOGETHER 

Cheremukhin Anton, UCLA 

11:15 - 12:45 MACROECONOMETRICS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Antonella Tutino, Federal Reserve 

Board 

A STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION FOR THE EFFECTS OF 

UNCERTAINTY ON CAPITAL ACCUMULATION WITH 

HETEROGENEOUS FIRMS 

Guiying Laura Wu, Nanyang Technological University 

Co-Authors: Steve Bond, University of Oxford and Mans Soderbom, 

University of Gothenburg 

FINANCIAL FRICTIONS, AGGREGATION, AND THE LUCAS 

CRITIQUE 

Frank Schorfheide, University of Pennsylvania 

Co-Authors: Yongsung Chang, University of Rochester / Yonsei 

University and Sun-Bin Kim, Yonsei University 


THE EMPIRICAL RELEVANCE OF RATIONAL INATTENTION IN 

CONSUMPTION-SAVINGS DECISIONS: A BAYESIAN APPROACH 

Antonella Tutino, Federal Reserve Board 

11:15 - 12:45 SEARCH AND UNEMPLOYMENT (MAX) 

Chairperson: Rigas Oikonomou, LSE 

THE CYCLICAL VOLATILITY OF LABOR MARKETS UNDER 

FRICTIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS 

Etienne Wasmer, Sciences Po, Economics Dept 

Co-Author: Nicolas Petrosky-Nadeau, Carnegie Mellon University - 

Tepper School of Business 

HOUSING AND THE LABOR MARKET: TIME TO MOVE AND 

AGGREGATE UNEMPLOYMENT 

Peter Rupert, Econ Dept, UCSN 

Co-Author: Etienne Wasmer, Sciences Po, Economics Dept 

JOINT SEARCH AND AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS 

Rigas Oikonomou, LSE 

Co-Author: Jochen Mankart, University of St. Gallen 

11:15 - 12:45 LIFE CYCLE STUDIES II (MAX) 

Chairperson: Sven Schreiber, IMK, Macroeconomic 

Policy Institute 


Room Gran Melia F1

EDUCATION AND CRIME OVER THE LIFE CYCLE 

Giulio Fella, Queen Mary University of London 

Co-Author: Giovanni Gallipoli, University of British Columbia 

HOME EQUITY WITHDRAWAL IN RETIREMENT 

Makoto Nakajima, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia 

Co-Author: Irina Telyukova, University of California, San Diego 

HOUSING CONSUMPTION AFTER RETIREMENT: IS THERE A 

PUZZLE? 

Sven Schreiber, IMK, Macroeconomic Policy Institute 

Co-Author: Miriam Beblo, Berlin School of Economics and Law 

11:15 - 12:45 MONETARY POLICY AND ASSET PRICES (MAX) 

Chairperson: Markus Hoermann, Tu Dortmund 

University 

FINANCIAL MARKET SEGMENTATION, STOCK MARKET 

VOLATILITY AND THE ROLE OF MONETARY POLICY 

Anastasia Zervou, Texas A&M University 

THE LIQUIDITY EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY ON ASSET 

PRICES 

Nicolas Jacquet, Singapore Management University 

Co-Author: Serene Tan, National University of Singapore 

MACROECONOMIC EFFECTS OF QUANTITATIVE EASING 

Markus Hoermann, Tu Dortmund University 

Co-Author: Andreas Schabert, TU Dortmund University 

11:15 - 12:45 TAXATION II (PUB) 

Chairperson: Mitsunobu Miyake, Tohoku University 


CAPITAL DEPRECIATION ALLOWANCES AND REDISTRIBUTION IN 

A NEOCLASSICAL GROWTH MODEL 

Günther Rehme, TU Darmstadt 

TAXABLE INCOME WITH NONLINEAR BUDGET SETS 

Anil Kumar, Federal Rserve Bank of Dallas 

Co-Authors: Sören Blomquist, Uppsala University and Uppsala Center for 

Fiscal Studies, Che-Yuan Liang, and Whitney Newey, MIT 

AXIOMATIC CHARACTERIZATION OF AGGREGATE CONSUMER 

SURPLUS MEASURES FOR NON-MARKET GOODS 

Mitsunobu Miyake, Tohoku University 

11:15 - 12:45 POLITICAL COMPETITION (POL) 

Chairperson: Oliver Denk, London School of 

Economics 

THE POLITICAL RESOURCE CURSE 

Tommaso Nannicini, Bocconi University 

Co-Authors: Fernanda Brollo, Bocconi University, Roberto Perotti, 

Bocconi University and Guido Tabellini, Bocconi University 

Room 3J 


TYING YOUR ENEMY’S HANDS IN CLOSE RACES: THE POLITICS 

OF FEDERAL TRANSFERS IN BRAZIL

Fernanda Brollo, BOCCONI UNIVERSITY 

THE ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF NATIONAL SWINGS ON POLITICAL 

JURISDICTIONS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE FROM ENGLISH 

COUNCILS AND US STATES 

Oliver Denk, London School of Economics 

11:15 - 12:45 VOTING THEORY (POL) 

Chairperson: Sunanda Roy, Iowa State University 

THE SWING VOTERS' BLESSING 

Jan Klingelhoefer, Institute for International Economic Studies 


EQUILIBRIUM REFINEMENT IN DYNAMIC VOTING GAMES 

Georgy Egorov, Kellogg School of Management 

Co-Authors: Daron Acemoglu, MIT and Konstantin Sonin, New Economic 

School, Moscow 

ON REDUCING THE INFLUENCE OF CONDORCET CYCLES FROM 

PAIR-WISE ELECTIONS DATA 

Sunanda Roy, Iowa State University 

Co-Author: Abhijit Chandra, Iowa State University 

11:15 - 12:45 INSTITUTIONS AND DEVELOPMENT II (DEV) 

Chairperson: ANANDI MANI, University of Warwick 

TRADE OPENNESS, INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE AND ECONOMIC 

GROWTH 

Antonio Navas, UNIVERSIDAD AUTONOMA DE MADRID 

INSTITUTIONAL AND FINANCIAL MARKET DEVELOPMENT OF 

NATIONS: NEW MEASURES FOR A LARGE PANEL 

Georgios Georgiadis, Goethe University Frankfurt 

Co-Author: Michael Binder, Goethe University Frankfurt, Chair for 

International Macroeconomics & Macroeconometrics 


TRAVELING AGENTS? POLITICAL CHANGE AND BUREAUCRATIC 

TURNOVER IN INDIA 

ANANDI MANI, University of Warwick 

Co-Author: Lakshmi Iyer, Harvard Busines School 

11:15 - 12:45 NONPARAMETRIC MODELS WITH 

ENDOGENEITY (ECO) 

Chairperson: Joel Horowitz, Northwestern University 


ESTIMATION OF NONPARAMETRIC MODELS WITH SIMULTANEITY 

Rosa Matzkin, University of California, Los Angeles 

NON PARAMETRIC ESTIMATION OF SEMIPARAMETRIC 

TRANSFORMATION MODELS 

Senay Sokullu, Toulouse School of Economics 

Co-Author: Jean-Pierre Florens, Toulouse School of Economics 

EMPIRICAL SELECTION OF THE REGULARIZATION PARAMETER 

IN NONPARAMETRIC INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES ESTIMATION 

Joel Horowitz, Northwestern University 

11:15 - 12:45 STOCHASTIC FRONTIER MODELS (ECO) Room 5C

Chairperson: Robin Sickles, Rice University- 

Department of Economics 

NONPARAMETRIC STOCHASTIC FRONTIER ESTIMATION VIA 

PROFILE LIKELIHOOD 

Carlos Martins-Filho, University of Colorado - Department of Economics 

Co-Author: Feng Yao, West Virginia University 

A STOCHASTIC FRONTIER MODEL WITH STRUCTURAL BREAKS IN 

EFFICIECY AND TECHNOLOGY 

Guangjie Li, Cardiff Business School 

BOUNDED STOCHASTIC FRONTIERS WITH AN APPLICATION TO 

THE US BANKING INDUSTRY: 1984-2009 

Robin Sickles, Rice University-Department of Economics 

Co-Authors: Pavlos Almanidis, Rice University and Junhui Qian, School 

of Economics \ Shanghai Jiao Tong University 

11:15 - 12:45 STRUCTURAL ESTIMATION II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Amil Petrin, University of Minnesota, 

Twin Cities 

FIRMS' HUMAN CAPITAL, R\&D AND INNOVATION: A STUDY ON 

FRENCH FIRMS 

Diègo Legros, Université de Bourgogne, Laboratoire d''Economie et de 

Gestion 

Co-Author: Emilie-Pauline Gallié, Institut pour le Management de la 

Recherche et de l'Innovation 

A STRUCTURAL MODEL OF STRIKE DURATIONS 

Sadat Reza, York University 

Co-Author: Paul Rilstone, York University 

THE INTERACTION OF OBSERVED AND UNOBSERVED FACTORS 

IN NON-LINEAR DEMAND MODELS 

Amil Petrin, University of Minnesota, Twin Cities 

Co-Author: Kyoo il Kim, University of Minnesota 

11:15 - 12:45 QUANTILES II (ECO) 

Chairperson: Sungjae Jun, Pennsylvania State 

University 

PARTIAL LINEAR QUANTILE REGRESSION AND BOOTSTRAP 

CONFIDENCE BANDS 

Song Song, Humboldt University zu Berlin 

COUNTERFACTUAL DECOMPOSITION OF CHANGES IN WAGE 

DISTRIBUTIONS VIA QUANTILE REGRESSION WITH ENDOGENOUS 

REGRESSORS 

Elena Martinez Sanchis, University of Alicante 

Co-Authors: Ilker Kandemir, UNIVERSITY COLLEGE LONDON and 

Juan Mora, University of Alicante 

CUBE-ROOT-N AND FASTER CONVERGENCE, LAPLACE 

ESTIMATORS, AND UNIFORM INFERENCE 

Sungjae Jun, Pennsylvania State University 

Co-Authors: Joris Pinkse, Pennsylvania State University and Yuanyuan 

Wan, 

Room 5D 

Room 5E

11:15 - 12:45 ESTIMATION OF DIFFUSIONS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Seungmoon Choi, University of 

Adelaide 

ESTIMATING SEMI-PARAMETRIC DIFFUSION MODELS WITH 

UNRESTRICTED VOLATILITY VIA INFINITESIMAL OPERATOR 

BASED CHARACTERIZATION 

Zhaogang Song, Department of Economics, Cornell University 

TESTING NONSTATIONARY DIFFUSIONS: AN INFINITESIMAL 

GENERATOR APPROACH. 

Bin Wang, Economics Department, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, 

USA 

CLOSED-FORM LIKELIHOOD EXPANSIONS FOR MULTIVARIATE 

TIME-INHOMOGENEOUS DIFFUSIONS 

Seungmoon Choi, University of Adelaide 

11:15 - 12:45 NONLINEAR PANEL DATA MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI 

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION OF A NONPARAMETRIC PANEL 

DATA MODEL WITH UNOBSERVED HETEROGENEITY 

Evdokimov Kirill, Yale University 

IDENTICATION AND ESTIMATION OF NONLINEAR DYNAMIC PANEL 

DATA MODELS WITH UNOBSERVED COVARIATES 

Ji-Liang Shiu, National Chung-Cheng University 

Co-Author: Yingyao Hu, Johns Hopkins University 

FUNCTIONAL DIFFERENCING 

Stéphane Bonhomme, CEMFI 

11:15 - 12:45 REGIME SWITCHING (ECO) 

Chairperson: Thanasis Stengos, University of 

Guelph 

IDENTIFICATION AND ESTIMATION IN AN INCOHERENT MODEL OF 

CONTAGION 

Daniele Massacci, University of Surrey 

MODIFIED LIKELIHOOD RATIO TEST FOR REGIME SWITCHING 

Katsumi Shimotsu, Hitotsubashi University 

Co-Authors: Hiroyuki Kasahara, University of British Columbia and 

Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, Hitotsubashi University 

STRUCTURAL THRESHOLD REGRESSION 

Thanasis Stengos, University of Guelph 

Co-Authors: Andros Kourtellos, University of Cyprus and Chih Ming Tan, 

Tufts University 


14:15 - 16:15 FOUNDATIONS: ROBUSTNESS (THY) 

Chairperson: Olivier Tercieux, Paris School of 

Economics 

Room 5F 

Room 5H 

Room 5I 

Room Gran Melia B1

STRATEGIC DISCONTINUITY IN SIMPLE AND COMPLICATED 

GAMES 

Siyang Xiong, Rice University, Department of Economics 

Co-Author: Yi-Chun Chen, National University of Singapore 

STRATEGIC DISTINGUISHABILITY AND INTERDEPENDENT 

PREFERENCES 

Stephen Morris, Princeton University 

Co-Authors: Dirk Bergemann, Yale University and Satoru Takahashi, 


A STRUCTURE THEOREM FOR RATIONALIZABILITY IN DYNAMIC 

GAMES 

Yi-Chun Chen, National University of Singapore 

SUBGAME PERFECT IMPLEMENTATION UNDER VALUE 

PERTURBATIONS AND THE HOLD-UP PROBLEM 

Olivier Tercieux, Paris School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Philippe Aghion, Harvard University, Drew Fudenberg, 

Harvard University, Richard Holden, Chicago, Booth School of Buisness 

and Takashi Kunimoto, McGuill University 

14:15 - 16:15 PSYCHOLOGY AND IO (THY) 

Chairperson: Juan Dubra, Universidad de 

Montevideo 

PRICE COMPETITION UNDER LIMITED COMPARABILITY 

Ran Spiegler, Tel Aviv University 

Co-Author: Michele Piccione, London School of Economics 

CONSUMER LOSS AVERSION AND COMPETITION IN 

DIFFERENTIATED PRODUCT MARKETS 

Heiko Karle, ECARES, ULB 

Co-Author: Martin Peitz, University of Mannheim 


RECRUITING NOW OR EARLIER? MORAL HAZARD MODEL WITH A 

TIME-INCONSISTENT AGENT 

Jianye Yan, Toulouse School of Economics 

APPARENT OVERCONFIDENCE 

Juan Dubra, Universidad de Montevideo 

Co-Author: Jean-Pierre Benoit, London Business School 

14:15 - 16:15 NETWORKS AND SOCIAL GROUPS (THY) 

Chairperson: Xu Tan, Department of Economics, 



A FIELD STUDY ON MATCHING WITH NETWORK EXTERNALITIES 

Leeat Yariv, California Institute of Technology 

Co-Authors: Mariagiovanna Baccara, New York University, Ayse 

Imrohoroglu, University of Southern California and Alistair Wilson, New 

York University 

HOMOPHILY AND SEARCH 

Sergio Currarini, Università Di Venezia 

Co-Author: Fernando Vega Redondo, European University Insitute 

STRATEGIC RANDOM NETWORKS: WHY SOCIAL NETWORKING

TECHNOLOGY MATTERS 

Yair Livne, Stanford GSB 

Co-Author: Benjamin Golub, Stanford University 

SOCIAL CAPITAL AND SOCIAL QUILTS: NETWORK PATTERNS OF 

FAVOR EXCHANGE 

Xu Tan, Department of Economics, Stanford University 

Co-Authors: Matthew Jackson, Stanford University and Tomas 

Rodriguez-Barraquer, Stanford University 

14:15 - 16:15 REPUTATION (THY) 

Chairperson: Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio 

University 

REPUTATION FOR QUALITY 

Moritz Meyer-ter-Vehn, UCLA 

MULTIPLE OPPONENTS AND THE LIMITS OF REPUTATION 

Sambuddha Ghosh, Boston University 

REPUTATION AND COMPETITION FOR INFORMATION 

INTERMEDIARIES 

Pei-yu Lo, The University of Hong Kong 

ASYMMETRY OF REPUTATION LOSS AND RECOVERY UNDER 

ENDOGENOUS RELATIONSHIPS: THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Takako Fujiwara-Greve, Keio University 

Co-Authors: Henrich Greve, INSEAD and Stefan Jonsson, Uppsala 

University 

14:15 - 16:15 EXPERIMENTS ON ALTRUISM AND FAIRNESS 

(EXP) 

Chairperson: David Malueg, University of California, 

Riverside 

SHIFTING THE BLAME: ON DELEGATION AND RESPONSIBILITY 

Bjorn Bartling, University of Zurich 

Co-Author: Urs Fischbacher, Universtity of Konstanz 



EXPERIMENTS IN GROUP IDENTITY AND COALITION FORMATION 

James Tremewan, Toulouse School of Economics 

RECIPROCITY IN RECESSIONS 

Sebastian Strasser, University of Munich 

Co-Author: Martin Kocher, University of Munich 

INCREASING FUNDRAISING SUCCESS BY DECREASING DONOR 

CHOICE 

David Malueg, University of California, Riverside 

Co-Author: Stefano Barbieri, Tulane University 

14:15 - 16:15 BANKING (FIN) 

Chairperson: Andrei Simonov, Michigan State 

University 

KNIGHTIAN UNCERTAINTY AND INTERBANK LENDING 

Matt Pritskere, The Federal Reserve Board 

Room 5A

INTERSTATE BANKING DEREGULATION AND BANK LOAN 

COMMITMENTS 

Ki Young Park, Yonsei University 

BANK RISK-TAKING, SECURITIZATION, SUPERVISION, AND LOW 

INTEREST RATES: EVIDENCE FROM LENDING STANDARDS 

Angela Maddaloni, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: José-Luis Peydró, European Central Bank 

ON THE REAL EFFECTS OF BANK BAILOUTS: MICRO-EVIDENCE 

FROM JAPAN 

Andrei Simonov, Michigan State University 

Co-Author: Mariassunta Giannetti, HHS 

14:15 - 16:15 PORTFOLIO CHOICE (FIN) 

Chairperson: Laurent Calvet, HEC Paris 

PORTFOLIO OPTIMIZATION AND RANK DEPENDENT EXPECTED 

UTILITY 

Jean-Luc Prigent, ThEMA 

THE CROSS-SECTION OF MANAGERIAL ABILITY AND RISK 

PREFERENCES 

Ralph Koijen, University of Chicago 

ROBUST ASSET ALLOCATION WITH GENERALIZED 

PREFERENCES 

Michel Verlaine, ICN Business School 

TWIN PICKS: DISENTANGLING THE DETERMINANTS OF RISK- 

TAKING IN HOUSEHOLD PORTFOLIOS 

Laurent Calvet, HEC Paris 

Co-Author: Paolo Sodini, Stockholm School of Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 ASSET PRICING VII (FIN) 

Chairperson: Malkhozov Aytek, London School of 

Economics 

INFORMATION AND LIQUIDITY TRADING AT OPTIMAL 

FREQUENCIES: THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Pagnotta Emiliano, Assistant Prof. Stern NYU 

RISK APPETITE AND EXCHANGE RATES 

Erkko Etula, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

Co-Authors: Tobias Adrian, Federal Reserve Bank of new York and Hyun 

Shin, Princeton University 

CONSUMPTION AND HEDGING IN OIL-IMPORTING DEVELOPING 

COUNTRIES 

Jaime Casassus, Universidad Catolica de Chile 

Co-Author: Felipe Aldunate, Stanford University 

ASSET PRICES IN A NEWS DRIVEN REAL BUSINESS CYCLE 

MODEL 

Malkhozov Aytek, London School of Economics 

Co-Author: Maral Shamloo, IMF 

Room 5B 

Room 5C 

14:15 - 16:15 STATIC MODELS OF COMPETITION: THEORY Room Gran Melia F2

(IND) 

Chairperson: Attar Andrea, University of Tor Vergata 

and Toulouse School of Economics 

HOTELLING COMPETITION WITH MULTI-PURCHASING: TIME 

MAGAZINE, NEWSWEEK, OR BOTH? 

Hans Jarle Kind, Norwegian School of Economics and Business 

Administration 

Co-Authors: Simon P. Anderson, University of Virginia and Øystein 

Foros, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration 

PRICE COMPETITION IN THE MARKET FOR LEMONS 

Yukio Koriyama, Ecole Polytechnique 

Co-Authors: Mark Voorneveld, Stockholm School of Economics and 

Jorgen Weibull, Stockholm School of Economics 

ADVERTISING IN A HOTELLING MODEL WITH MIXTURE 

DISTRIBUTION 

Daniel Zhiyun Li, Department of Economics, Oxford University 

NON-EXCLUSIVE COMPETITION IN THE MARKET FOR LEMONS 

Attar Andrea, University of Tor Vergata and Toulouse School of 

Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 STRUCTURAL ECONOMETRIC STUDIES IN IO 

(IND) 

Chairperson: Juan Esteban Carranza, University of 

Wisconsin And Icesi (colombia) 

ESTIMATING OPTIMAL CONTRACTS UNDER DELEGATED 

MANAGEMENT IN THE FRENCH WATER SECTOR 

Christian Bontemps, Toulouse School of Economics 


TESTING MODELS OF CONSUMER SEARCH USING DATA ON WEB 

BROWSING AND PURCHASING BEHAVIOR 

Babur De los Santos, Kelley School of Business, Indiana University 

Co-Authors: Ali Hortaçsu, and Matthijs Wildenbeest, Kelley School of 

Business, Indiana University 

POSITIVELY DEPENDENT PRODUCTIVITY SHOCKS IN 

TOURNAMENTS: AN EMPIRICAL ANALYSIS OF PRODUCTION 

CONTRACTS SETTLEMENT DATA 

Xiaoyong Zheng, North Carolina State University 

Co-Authors: Tong Li, Vanderbilt University and Tomislav Vukina, North 

Carolina State University 

ESTIMATING DYNAMIC MODELS WITH AGGREGATE SHOCKS AND 

AN APPLICATION TO MORTGAGE DEFAULT IN COLOMBIA 

Juan Esteban Carranza, University of Wisconsin And Icesi (colombia) 

Co-Author: Salvador Navarro, university of wisconsin 

14:15 - 16:15 VERTICAL RELATIONSHIPS: THEORY AND 

EVIDENCE (IND) 

Chairperson: Ran Jing, University of International 

Business and Economics 

VERTICAL INTEGRATION, FORECLOSURE, AND UPSTREAM 

COMPETITION 

Nicolas Schutz, Paris School of Economics 

Room Gran Melia F5

Co-Authors: Johan Hombert, HEC Paris and Jerome Pouyet, Paris 


VERTICAL RELATIONS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS 

Volker Nocke, University of Mannheim 

Co-Author: John Thanassoulis, University of Oxford 

OUTSOURCING WHEN INVESTMENTS ARE SPECIFIC AND 

INTERRELATED 

Johannes Van Biesebroeck, K.U.Leuven 

Co-Author: Alla Lileeva, York University 

PARTIAL EQUITY STAKES IN VERTICAL SUPPLY CHAINS: 

EVIDENCE FROM THE JAPANESE AUTO PARTS INDUSTRY 

Ran Jing, University of International Business and Economics 

14:15 - 16:15 EXCHANGE RATES AND PRICES (INT) 

Chairperson: Paul Bergin, Univ. California Davis 

ASSESSING THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENTS: IS 

REAL UNDERVALUATION OF THE CURRENCY LIKELY AND CAN IT 

BE SUSTAINED? 

Megumi Kubota, University of York 

DO STICKY PRICES INCREASE THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE 

VOLATILITY? 

Takayuki Tsuruga, Kansai University 

Co-Authors: Mario Crucini, Vanderbilt University and Mototsugu Shintani, 

Vanderbilt University 

DEMAND IMBALANCES, EXCHANGE RATE MISALIGNMENT AND 

MONETARY POLICY 

Luca Dedola, European Central Bank 

Co-Author: Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute 

THE MICRO-MACRO DISCONNECT OF PURCHASING POWER 

PARITY 

Paul Bergin, Univ. California Davis 

14:15 - 16:15 TRADE AND COMPETITION (INT) 

Chairperson: Kensuke Teshima, CIE-ITAM 

ON PRICE, ENTRY AND MARKET SIZE. A GENERAL 

MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION APPROACH 

Sergey Kokovin, Novosibirsk State University, Economic dpt., Institute of 

Mathematics 

Co-Authors: Jacques-François Thisse, CORE and Evgeny Zhelobodko, 

Department of Economics, Novosibirsk State University 

CAN IMPORT COMPETITION EXPLAIN THE SKILL CONTENT IN THE 

UNITED STATES? 

Travis Ng, The Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Co-Author: Yi Lu, The University of Hong Kong 

INTERNATIONAL TRADE AND MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION 

WITHOUT CES: ESTIMATING GRAVITY WITH ENDOGENOUS 

TRADE COST ELASTICITIES 

Room 3A 

Room 3H

Dennis Novy, University of Warwick 

IMPORT COMPETITION AND INNOVATION AT THE PLANT LEVEL: 

EVIDENCE FROM MEXICO. 

Kensuke Teshima, CIE-ITAM 

14:15 - 16:15 MIGRATION AND IMMIGRATION (LAB) 

Chairperson: Joseph Altonji, Yale University 

IMMIGRATION, WAGES, AND EDUCATION: A GENERAL 

EQUILIBRIUM DYNAMIC DISCRETE CHOICE STRUCTURAL MODEL 

Joan Llull, CEMFI 

THE HETEROGENEOUS LABOR MARKET EFFECTS OF 

IMMIGRATION 

Mathis Wagner, Collegio Carlo Alberto 

DO FOREIGN EXPERTS INCREASE THE PRODUCTIVITY OF 

DOMESTIC FIRMS? 

Jakob Roland Munch, University of Copenhagen 

Co-Authors: Nikolaj Malchow-Møller, University of Southern Denmark 

and Jan Rose Skaksen, Copenhagen Business School 

THE VALUE OF ENGLISH AT HOME AND ABROAD 

Joseph Altonji, Yale University 

Co-Author: Mark Rosenzweig, Yale University 

14:15 - 16:15 DISCRIMINATION AND SEARCH (LAB) 

Chairperson: Benoit Schmutz, GREQAM-Paris 


DISCRIMINATION, COORDINATION AND UNEMPLOYMENT 

Luca P. Merlino, ECARES 

DISCRIMINATION IN THE EQUILIBRIUM SEARCH MODEL WITH 

WAGE-TENURE CONTRACTS 

Zheng Fang, Nanyang Technological University 

Co-Author: Chris Sakellariou, Nanyang Technological University 

DISCRIMINATION AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION 

Steinar Holden, University of Oslo 

Co-Author: Åsa Rosén, Stockholm University (SOFI) 

THE NEIGHBOR IS KING: CUSTOMER DISCRIMINATION IN THE 

HOUSING MARKET 

Benoit Schmutz, GREQAM-Paris School of Economics 

Co-Authors: Pierre-Philippe Combes, CNRS, Bruno Decreuse, GREQAM 

and University of Aix-Marseilles and Alain Trannoy, EHESS and 

GREQAM-IDEP 

14:15 - 16:15 PROGRAM EVALUATION II (LAB) 

Chairperson: Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal 

Reserve Bank of New York 

THE EFFECT OF EXPERIENCING A SPELL OF TEMPORARY 

EMPLOYMENT VS. A SPELL OF UNEMPLOYMENT ON SHORT- 

TERM LABOUR MARKET OUTCOMES 

Ugo Trivellato, University of Padova 

Room 3B 

Room 5I 

Room 5J

Co-Authors: Adriano Paggiaro, University of Padova and Enrico Rettore, 

University of Padova 

EMPLOYMENT EFFECTS OF FLEXIBILITY “AT THE MARGIN” IN 

ECONOMIC EXPANSION 

Alfonso Arellano, FEDEA 

CONSCRIPTION AND CRIME: EVIDENCE FROM THE ARGENTINE 

DRAFT LOTTERY 

Ernesto Schargrodsky, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 

Co-Authors: Sebastian Galiani, Washington University in St Louis and 

Martin Rossi, Universidad de San Andres 

ANATOMY OF POLICY REFORM EVALUATION: ANNOUNCEMENT 

AND IMPLEMENTATION EFFECTS 

Wilbert van der Klaauw, Federal Reserve Bank of New York 

Co-Authors: Richard Blundell, University College London and Marco 

Francesconi, University of Essex 

14:15 - 16:15 INVESTMENT, ASSET PRICING AND 

AGGREGATE FLUCTUATIONS (MAX) 

Chairperson: Tianxi Wang, U of Essex 

CREDIT RISK AND THE MACROECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM AN 

ESTIMATED DSGE MODEL 

Alberto Ortiz, Oberlin College 

Co-Authors: Simon Gilchrist, Boston University and Egon Zakrajsek, 

Federal Reserve Board 

BELIEFS SHOCK AND THE MACROECONOMY 

Jacek Suda, Banque de France - Paris School of Economics 

THE CYCLICAL BEHAVIOR OF EQUITY TURNOVER 

Emilio Espino, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella 

Co-Author: David DEJONG, Department of Economics; University of 

Pittsburgh 

THE LEVERAGE OF FINANCIAL INTERMEDIARIES, MARKET 

FAILURE, AND REGULATION 

Tianxi Wang, U of Essex 

14:15 - 16:15 INFRASTRUCTURE, INNOVATION AND 

GROWTH (MAX) 

Chairperson: V. Brian Viard, Cheung Kong Graduate 

School of Business 

BROADBAND INFRASTRUCTURE AND ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Nina Czernich, ifo Insitute for Economic Research 

Co-Authors: Oliver Falck, ifo Institute for Economic Research, Tobias 

Kretschmer, Institute for Communication Economics - Munich School of 

Management and Ludger Woessmann, ifo Institute for Economic 

Research 

THE WELFARE COST OF ONE-SIZE-FITS-ALL PATENT 

PROTECTION 

Angus C. Chu, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics 

PATENT PROTECTION, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE AND WAGE 

Room 3D 

Room 3E

INEQUALITY 

Shiyuan Pan, Zhejiang University 

THE EFFECT OF CONTENT ON GLOBAL INTERNET ADOPTION 

V. Brian Viard, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business 

14:15 - 16:15 GROWTH THEORY (MAX) 

Chairperson: Yong Wang, City University of Hong 

Kong 

TIME TO CONSUME, QUALITY, AND GROWTH 

Francisco Alcala, Universidad de Murcia 

ADOPTION TECHNOLOGY TARGETS AND KNOWLEDGE 

DYNAMICS: CONSEQUENCES FOR LONG-RUN PROSPECTS 

Veronica Mies, P. Universidad Católica de Chile 

TRANSITIONAL DYNAMICS IN AN ENDOGENOUS GROWTH MODEL 

WITH HETEROGENEOUS CONSUMPTION GOODS 

Xavier Raurich, Universitat de Barcelona 

Co-Authors: Jaime Alonso-Carrera, Universidade de Vigo and Jordi 

Caballe, Universidad Autonoma de Barcelona 

ASYMMETRIC INFORMATION, AUDITING COMMITMENT, AND 

ECONOMIC GROWTH 

Yong Wang, City University of Hong Kong 

14:15 - 16:15 POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS (POL) 

Chairperson: Jia Ruixue, Department of Economics, 

Stockholm University 

POLITICAL ACCOUNTABILITY AND REAL AUTHORITY OF 

GOVERNMENT BUREAUCRACY 

Marina Dodlova, EconomiX / University of Paris Ouest Nanterre 

THE ECONOMIC ORIGINS OF ISLAM: THEORY AND EVIDENCE 

Naghavi Alireza, University of Bologna 

Co-Authors: Stelios Michalopoulos, Tufts University and Giovanni 

Prarolo, University of Bologna 

Room 3G 


ELITE CAPTURE IN THE ABSENCE OF DEMOCRACY: EVIDENCE 

FROM BACKGROUNDS OF CHINESE PROVINCIAL LEADERS 

Petra Persson, Columbia University 

Co-Author: Ekaterina Zhuravskaya, New Economic School 

THE LEGACIES OF FORCED FREEDOM 

Jia Ruixue, Department of Economics, Stockholm University 

14:15 - 16:15 POVERTY (DEV) 

Chairperson: Kumar Aniket, University of Cambridge 

ESTIMATION OF POVERTY TRANSITION MATRICES WITH NOISY 

DATA 

Nayoung Lee, Chinese University of Hong Kong 

Co-Authors: Geert Ridder, University of Southern California and John 

Strauss, University of Southern California 

DISTRIBUTION DYNAMICS AND COVARIATES: COMBINING TWO 

Room Century Hall

APPROACHES IN THE EMPIRICAL GROWTH LITERATURE 

Ole Rummel, Bank of England 

MICRO RESPONSES TO DISASTER RELIEF AID: LOBBYING, 

SOCIAL CONNECTIONS, AND AID EFFICACY 

Manabu Nose, Brown University, Economics 

BEYOND MICROCREDIT: GIVING THE POOR A WAY TO SAVE 

THEIR WAY OUT OF POVERTY 

Kumar Aniket, University of Cambridge 

14:15 - 16:15 DEVELOPMENT: EMPIRICAL ISSUES II (DEV) 

Chairperson: Dan Lu, the University of Chicago 

MIGRATION AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN MEXICO 

Daniel Yi Xu, New York University 

Co-Author: Kevin Thom, New York University 

THE IMPACTS OF FACE-TO-FACE AND FREQUENT INTERACTIONS 

ON INNOVATION: EVIDENCE FROM UPSTREAM-DOWNSTREAM 

RELATIONS 

Tomohiro Machikita, Institute of Developing Economies 

Co-Author: Yasushi Ueki, Institute of Developing Economies, Bangkok 

Research Center, Japan External Trade Organization 

IMPACT OF INDUSTRIALIZATION ON RELATIVE FEMALE 

SURVIVAL: EVIDENCE FROM TRADE POLICIES 

Tanika Chakraborty, DIW Berlin 

AGGLOMERATION EXTERNALITIES AND INDUSTRY 

CONCENTRATION DYNAMICS 

Dan Lu, the University of Chicago 

14:15 - 16:15 BOUNDS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Andrew Chesher, University College 

London 

Room 3C 


CONCAVE-MONOTONE TREATMENT RESPONSE AND MONOTONE 

TREATMENT SELECTION: WITH AN APPLICATION TO THE 

RETURNS TO SCHOOLING 

Tsunao Okumura, Yokohama National University 

Co-Author: Emiko Usui, Nagoya University 

IV MODELS OF ORDERED CHOICE 

Smolinski Konrad, European University Institute/ CeMMAP 

Co-Author: Andrew Chesher, University College London 

SHARP IDENTIFICATION REGIONS IN MODELS WITH CONVEX 

PREDICTIONS: GAMES, INDIVIDUAL CHOICE, AND INCOMPLETE 

DATA 

Arie Beresteanu, Duke University 

Co-Authors: Ilya Molchanov, Bern University and Francesca Molinari, 

Cornell University 

SET IDENTIFYING MODELS WITH DISCRETE OUTCOMES AND 

ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES 

Andrew Chesher, University College London 

Co-Author: Smolinski Konrad, European University Institute/ CeMMAP

14:15 - 16:15 COINTEGRATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Peter Boswijk, University of 

Amsterdam 

MEASURING CORRELATIONS OF INTEGRATED BUT NOT 

COINTEGRATED VARIABLES - A SEMIPARAMETRIC APPROACH 

Yiguo Sun, University of Guelph 

Co-Authors: Cheng Hsiao, University of Southern California and Qi Li, 

Texas A&M University 

CO-INTEGRATION RANK TESTING UNDER CONDITIONAL 

HETEROSKEDASTICITY 

Giuseppe Cavaliere, University of Bologna 

Co-Authors: Anders Rahbek, University of Copenhagen and Robert 

Taylor, University of Nottingham 

SUMMABILITY OF STOCHASTIC PROCESSES (A GENERALIZATION 

OF INTEGRATION AND CO-INTEGRATION VALID FOR NON-LINEAR 

PROCESSES) 

Vanessa Berenguer, U. Carlos III de Madrid 

Co-Author: Jesus Gonzalo, U. Carlos III de Madrid 

MIXED NORMAL INFERENCE ON MULTICOINTEGRATION 

Peter Boswijk, University of Amsterdam 

14:15 - 16:15 MODEL SELECTION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin 

EFFICIENT SELECTION OF THE ORDER OF AN AR(\INFTY): A 

UNIFIED APPROACH WITHOUT KNOWING THE ORDER OF 

INTEGRATEDNESS 

CY (Chor-yiu) SIN, National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan 

Co-Authors: Ching-Kang ING, Academia Sinica and Shu-Hui YU, 

National University of Kaohsiung 

DATA-DRIVEN MODEL EVALUATION: A TEST FOR REVEALED 

PERFORMANCE 

Christopher Parmeter, Virginia Tech 

Co-Author: Jeffrey Racine, McMaster University 

ECONOMETRIC MODEL SELECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF 

NONSTATIONARITY 

Jae-Young Kim, Seoul National University 

MULTI-STEP FORECAST SELECTION 

Bruce Hansen, University of Wisconsin 

14:15 - 16:15 STATE SPACE AND FACTOR MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Peng Wang, Hong Kong University of 


DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS WITH SMOOTH LOADINGS FOR 

ANALYZING THE TERM STRUCTURE OF INTEREST RATES 

Michel Van der Wel, Erasmus University Rotterdam 

Co-Authors: Borus Jungbacker, VU University, Tinbergen Institute and 

Siem Jan Koopman, VU University, Tinbergen Institute 

Room 5D 

Room 5E 

Room 5F

INFINITE-DIMENSIONAL VARS AND FACTOR MODELS 

Alexander Chudik, CIMF and European Central Bank 

Co-Author: M. Hashem Pesaran, Cambridge University and USC 

FITTING DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS TO NON-STATIONARY TIME 

SERIES 

Michael Eichler, Maastricht University 

Co-Authors: Giovanni Motta, Maastricht University and Rainer von 

Sachs, Université catholique de Louvain 

LARGE DIMENSIONAL FACTOR MODELS WITH A MULTI-LEVEL 

FACTOR STRUCTURE: IDENTI…CATION, ESTIMATION AND 

INFERENCE 

Peng Wang, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology 

14:15 - 16:15 DURATION MODELS (ECO) 

Chairperson: Jaap Abbring, CentER, Department of 

Econometrics & OR, Tilburg University 

THE LIKELIHOOD OF MIXED HITTING TIMES 

Tim Salimans, Tinbergen Institute and Erasmus School of Economics, 

Rotterdam, The Netherlands 

Co-Author: Jaap Abbring, CentER, Department of Econometrics & OR, 

Tilburg University 

AN ALTERNATIVE SEMIPARAMETRIC REGRESSION APPROACH 

TO NONLINEAR DURATION MODELING: THEORY AND 

APPLICATION 

Pipat Wongsaart, The University of Adelaide 

Co-Author: Jiti Gao, The University of Adelaide 

IDENTIFIABILITY AND ESTIMATION OF THE SIGN OF A COVARIATE 

EFFECT IN THE COMPETING RISKS MODEL 

Ralf Wilke, University of Nottingham 

Co-Author: Simon Lo, Lingnan University 

A NOTE ON THE NON-PARAMETRIC IDENTIFICATION OF 

GENERALIZED ACCELERATED FAILURE-TIME MODELS 

Jaap Abbring, CentER, Department of Econometrics & OR, Tilburg 

University 

Co-Author: Geert Ridder, University of Southern California 

14:15 - 16:15 TREATMENT EFFECT ESTIMATION (ECO) 

Chairperson: Ivan Fernandez-Val, Boston University 

Room 5H 


TO CONTROL OR NOT TO CONTROL? BIAS OF SIMPLE MATCHING 

VS DIFFERENCE-IN-DIFFERENCE MATCHING IN A DYNAMIC 

FRAMEWORK 

Sylvain Chabe-Ferret, Cemagref 

QUANTILE TREATMENT EFFECTS IN THE REGRESSION 

DISCONTINUITY DESIGN 

Blaise Melly, Brown University 

Co-Author: Markus Froelich, Universität Mannheim 

TREATMENT EVALUATION IN THE PRESENCE OF SAMPLE 

SELECTION

Martin Huber, University of St. Gallen 

INFERENCE ON COUNTERFACTUAL DISTRIBUTIONS 

Ivan Fernandez-Val, Boston University 

Co-Authors: Victor Chernozhukov, MIT and Blaise Melly, Brown 

University 


16:45 - 18:15 FISHER-SCHULTZ LECTURE 

Chairperson: Roger Myerson, University of Chicago 

WILLPOWER AND SELF CONTROL 

Drew Fudenberg, Harvard University 

Room Grand Ballroom

TUESDAY 17 AUGUST 2010 09:00 - 10:45 PAIRED ... - netease.com

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