Climate Change Impacts on Cities of Developing Countries A Case Study on Dhaka

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on
Cities of Developing Countries:
A Case Study on Dhaka
Dr. Atiq Rahman and Dr. DL Mallick
Bangladesh Centre for Advanced Studies
(BCAS) Dhaka, Bangladesh
C40 Tokyo Conference on <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> –
Adaptation Measures for Sustainable Low
Carbon Cities

Outline of the Presentation
• <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> impacts on Cities in general
• Dhaka a vulnerable city
• History and growth of Dhaka
• <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Risks
• Erratic Rainfall, flood and water logging
• Temperature rise and heat stress
• Sea level rise may affect Dhaka
• Vulnerable Sectors and Communities
• Infrastructure, human settlements, Industries, Employment and
Income, livelihoods, Water, Sanitation and Health
• Poor are affected the most
• Current coping and limited scale collective actions
• Adaptation measures required for reducing risks and vulnerability
• Way forward- AdMit (Adaptation and Mitigation)

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on Cities
• About 50% of the world’s s population live in cities
• By 2030 over 75% of the world’s s population will live in the
cities
• Rate of urbanization is very high in developing countries
• Currently, population in Dhaka is growing at 6-7% 6
annually
• Luxurious lifestyles, wasteful consumption, burning of
fossil fuel and inefficient energy uses in most cities cause
global warming and climate change
• Globally, 80% of GHG emission is caused by the cities
• Again, many cities in the developing world are facing
climate impacts with grave consequences on society,
economy, ecology and infrastructure

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on Cities
• Large section of city dwellers in developing countries are at risk
of various climate impacts
• They are facing frequent and prolonged floods, severe storms,
tidal surges, increasing salinity in water, heavy rainfall and land l
slides, heat waves etc.
• These damages assets base, economy and industrial activities, trade and
business, employment and livelihood of the poor and marginal sections
• These also affect human settlements, infrastructures and communication,
cation,
basic services and support systems and human health very badly
• Many cities are exposed to possible sea level rise
• Million of climate refugees from rural areas are also migrating to
cities and living in slums in inhuman conditions

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong> on Cities
• According to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC, 2007:
• Vulnerability of industry, infrastructures, settlements and society to
climate change are greater in certain high-risk locations
• Particularly in coastal and riverine areas and areas whose economics
are closely linked with climate sensitive resources such as agriculture
and forest products industries, water demands and tourism
• These vulnerabilities tend to be localized but are often large and a
growing
• Extreme weather and climatic events are becoming more intense
and frequent with increasing economic and social costs incuding
human casualties
• Poor communities are highly vulnerable in those high-risk areas
because of their lack of capacity
• There are limited adaptation activities, but these vary across
societies, communities and economies
• Cities are facing many adaptation barriers in policy, institution,
n,
society, economies and technology

Location of the country and Dhaka City
• Great Himalayans in the
North
• Bay of Bengal in the
South
• Big river systems divided
the country
• Most part of the country
is flat and very
susceptible to flood and
sea level rise

History and Growth of Dhaka
• Dhaka is one of the populous and mega cities in the world
• The Statistical Metropolitan Area of Dhaka has about 13
million people within 1,353 km 2 now
• It will become fifth larger city by 2030 in terms of population
• Population of Dhaka City Corporation was 2.8 million only in
1981, which would 15 million very soon
• Over 40% of the population of Dhaka is poor, who live in slums
and fringe areas and are extremely vulnerable to disaster and
climate risks
• Physical expansion of city area is negligible with very
limited civic amenities and support services

History and Growth of Dhaka
• Dhaka carries a very
long history dating back
from the 7th century
A.D.
• It got political
importance during
Mughal Period (1608-
1764)
• Became provincial
Capital during British
Rule and in Pakistan
Period
• Now Capital City of
Bangladesh Period
(after 1971)

Physical Growth of Dhaka

<strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Change</strong> Context: Risk and Vulnerability
(Due to Riverine Flood, Rainfall and Water Logging)

<strong>Climate</strong> induced Flood Risk and Vulnerability
• Prolonged floods and water logging in the city
• Four major floods in last 20 years: in 1988,
1998, 2004 and 2007
• Floods of 1998 and 2004 were worst in terms
of inundation and duration of flood water in
the city fringe areas
• Over 50% city people, most of them were
slum dwellers and living in low lying areas
were badly affected
• People were forced to stay on roof tops
during prolonged floods
• SMEs (including garments industries), small
trading and retailers suffered the most for
months

<strong>Climate</strong> induced Flood Risk and Vulnerability
• People suffered from lack of food,
safe drinking water and health
problems
• In 2007, over 90,000 people in Dhaka
city were infected by diarrheal diseases
in one week during flood
• Elderly people, children and women
were extremely vulnerable to flood
risks
• Communication was baldly affected,
people had to swim to collect food
and water
• Government and NGOs carried out
limited rescue and rehabilitation works
• But, local collective action for shelter,
food and water supply and social security

The key Vulnerable Sectors
• Housing and settlement
• Road and Transportation
• Water Supply, Sanitation
and Health
• Disruption of Power
Supply
• Electricity and Gas
• Industries, SMEs,
Economic activities,
Employment and
Livelihoods of Poor

Temperature Rise and Heat Stress
• The Summer is getting bigger (5-6 6 months long instead of 3
months in 30 years back)
• In some hot days, temperature goes up to 40 degree Celsius in
the city and surrounding areas
• People in slums and poor locations suffer from heat stress in
every year during April-July
• Growing heat wave and water scarcity cause diarrhea in Dhaka
city every year during the Summer
• Normally, rainfall cools down the weather, but it is erratic (in
some years it comes earlier or latter in the monsoon)
• Winter is smaller but in some years it becomes very cold

<strong>Impacts</strong> of possible Sea level Rise
• Possible one meter rise of sea
level will shift coast line into
inland of Bangladesh
• It may go near the Dhaka city
• Dhaka is already under active
river tidal zone
• High tide influenced by sea tide
sometimes engulfs low lying
areas of Dhaka city

Poor are affected the most
• <strong>Climate</strong> change will hit the poor earliest and the hardest
• Because, they are in the forefront in climate disasters and various risks
• <strong>Climate</strong> change will compound the existing poverty
• Many non-poor could be forced to be poor
• Moderate poor may be extreme poor
• The poor has the least capacity to take shocks and adapt with adverse
impacts of climate change
• Thus, poor are the most vulnerable to climate change impacts and
disaster risks
• How?
• Vulnerability= Risks x Hazards
Capacity

Better understanding of poverty and climate links

Emission of GHGs from Bangladesh and Dhaka City
• GHG emission and contribution to global
warming is low and negligible
• Per capita GHG emission is 230 kg only
• However cities consume over 30% of the
total electricity generated in the country
• Sectoral consumption of electricity in
Dhaka City are:
• Industries (46%)
• Residential (45%)
• Commercial (7%)
• Others (2%)
• Large part of GHG is coming from
electricity generation and transport sector
• Landfills also generate GHG in the city

Current Coping to Disasters and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong>
• Everybody is affected by climate risks including flood,
rainfall, water logging, heat stress etc.
• Rich sometimes can take up it with their various
capitals including money and social links
• Poor are badly affected and extremely vulnerable due
their lack of capacity
• Government agencies, development partners and
NGOs help the poor and vulnerable communities with
food, water, medicines and temporary shelters
• Community leaders including rich people sometimes
allow the poor to stay on their lands during flood
• Poor again share their resources during disasters

Current Coping to Disasters and <strong>Climate</strong> <strong>Impacts</strong>
• Private sectors including industries and hospital
sometimes support also support the poor
• Flood protection embankment in the Western
part worked well in 1998, 2004 and 2002
007
• But drainage systems did not work well and
created human sufferings
• Appropriate embankment with drainage systems
to be build in the North-Easter side of Dhaka
city

Adaptation Measures required
• Wider awareness and preparedness at local and community levels
about the frequency, intensity and impacts of climate disasters
• Recognize that 20 years big flood becomes a 5-75
7 years event
• Understand the macro-micro micro links of flood and global warming
• Early warning about reverine flood and effective forecasting of
rainfall
• Regional information sharing on flood and disaster
• Multi-purpose flood shelters in low lying areas of Dhaka
• Ensure food, water supply and medicine for the poor during
floods
• Greater attention to the elderly people, children and women
• Alternative employment for the poor during prolonged flood

Adaptation Measures required
• Supporting the SMEs, , small traders and retailers during
and after floods
• Strengthening city government and local government
with authority and adequate resources
• Local capacity building for community and sectoral
adaptation to climate change
• <strong>Climate</strong> change adaptation is more than normal DRR,
but this can give good basis for adaptation to climate
change

Way forward
• City planning must incorporate climate issues
• Decentralization and pro-poor poor development plan
• Institutional integration at national, city government, inter-agency and
local levels
• Promote adaptation by building resilience in human, social and natural n
systems with greater capacity, awareness and local action in the current
and future climate contexts
• Adaptation strategies are to be integrated into DRR, urban planning,
poverty alleviation and development
• Poor need greater resilience with new knowledge, engagement in
adaptation action, resources and technology supports
• Greater commitment of the city government and political authorities
ies
for comprehensive approach to address climate change and its impacts
• Role of civil society/citizen’s s groups is important in this regard
• Promotion of Adaptation and mitigation together (energy efficiency,
cy,
solar energy and conservation of energy, water, social forestry on city
embankments etc.)

Thank You