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<strong>2014</strong> – <strong>CROP</strong> <strong>REPORT</strong> - <strong>OLIVE</strong>S<br />
<strong>October</strong> <strong>2014</strong><br />
<strong>GOYA</strong> EN ESPAÑA, S.A.U.<br />
Seville - SPAIN
<strong>2014</strong>– Crop Report<br />
<strong>2014</strong> – INITIAL <strong>CROP</strong> <strong>REPORT</strong><br />
Olives - SPAIN<br />
Index<br />
• <strong>CROP</strong> ESTIMATION<br />
• PRODUCTION TREND<br />
• <strong>CROP</strong> BALANCE<br />
• PRODUCTION IN MAJOR COUNTRIES<br />
• U.S. <strong>OLIVE</strong> IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN
<strong>2014</strong> – Crop Report<br />
<strong>2014</strong> – <strong>CROP</strong> ESTIMATION (3rd Forecast)<br />
Olives - SPAIN<br />
• Total crop estimation lower than last year<br />
• Third forecast reduced quantities by 3% from previous forecast<br />
• Weather conditions and olive oil prices will affect final quantities harvested.<br />
(000 TM)<br />
VARIETY \ CAMPAING 2013<br />
<strong>2014</strong><br />
3rd Forecast<br />
600<br />
GORDAL / QUEEN 11 24<br />
MANZANILLA 148 189<br />
HOJIBLANCA 289 231<br />
CARRASQUEÑA 64 26<br />
CACEREÑA 40 27<br />
OTHER 21 20<br />
TOTAL 573 517<br />
500<br />
400<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
0<br />
GORDAL M ANZANILLA HOJIBLANCA CARRASQUEÑA CACEREÑA OTHER TOTAL<br />
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA<br />
2013 <strong>2014</strong>
<strong>2014</strong> – Crop Report<br />
<strong>2014</strong> – PRODUCTION TREND<br />
Olives - SPAIN<br />
(000 TM)<br />
VARIETY<br />
CAMPAING<br />
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013<br />
<strong>2014</strong><br />
3rd<br />
FORECAST<br />
%<br />
CHANGE<br />
GORDAL / QUEEN 32 51 38 29 34 11 24 +118%<br />
MANZANILLA 203 134 210 155 156 148 189 +28%<br />
HOJIBLANCA 183 209 254 255 235 289 231 -20%<br />
CARRASQUEÑA 28 43 44 40 26 64 26 -57%<br />
CACEREÑA 23 33 33 26 19 40 27 -33%<br />
OTHER 17 20 21 17 18 21 20 =<br />
TOTAL 486 489 600 521 488 573 517 -10%<br />
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA
<strong>2014</strong>– Crop Report<br />
<strong>CROP</strong> BALANCE (as August 30th)<br />
Olives - SPAIN<br />
• Availability increased by 6%<br />
• Total Usage growth +1%, with 66% for<br />
exports and 34% for domestic market.<br />
• Estimated stocks are 14% higher than<br />
previous year.<br />
900<br />
800<br />
700<br />
600<br />
500<br />
(000 TM)<br />
400<br />
CAMPAING<br />
BALANCE<br />
2012/13<br />
2013/14<br />
AVAILABITILY 840 891<br />
TOTAL USAGE 482 486<br />
300<br />
200<br />
100<br />
FINAL STOCK 312 354<br />
0<br />
A vailab ilit y<br />
T o t al<br />
U sag e<br />
F inal St o ck<br />
2012/13 2013/14<br />
*Source: ASAJA/ASEMESA
<strong>2014</strong> – Crop Report<br />
PRODUCTION IN MAJOR EXPORT COUNTRIES<br />
<strong>OLIVE</strong>S<br />
CAMPAING<br />
COUNTRY<br />
(000 TM)<br />
2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14<br />
<strong>2014</strong>/15<br />
ESTIMATION<br />
SPAIN 486 489 600 521 488 573 517<br />
GREECE 105 107 135 130 197 100 135<br />
MAROCCO 100 90 110 100 100 100 90<br />
ARGENTINA 95 220 90 150 60 140 28<br />
TURKEY 300 390 330 400 410 430 350<br />
ITALY 69 59 70 76 74 42 78<br />
PORTUGAL 13 12 10 9 9 14 16<br />
EGYPT 440 409 350 385 453 400 450<br />
PERU 9 75 73 81 80 80 ??<br />
EEUU 48 24 154 26 71 68 40<br />
• Spain is the biggest producer of olives in the world, with 20% of the total world<br />
production, around 2,511,500 Mt.<br />
• Other major producer countries include: Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Argentina &, Morocco. .<br />
*Source: IOOC – ASAJA
<strong>2014</strong> – Crop Report<br />
U.S. <strong>OLIVE</strong> IMPORTS, BY COUNTRY OF ORIGIN<br />
<strong>OLIVE</strong>S<br />
ORIGIN<br />
2013<br />
t %<br />
SPAIN 66.226 50%<br />
GREECE 27.757 21%<br />
MOROCCO 14.357 11%<br />
ARGENTINE 5.128 4%<br />
ITALY 4.300 3%<br />
TURKEY 3.380 3%<br />
EGYPT 2.594 2%<br />
PORTUGAL 1.456 1%<br />
OTHER 6.799 5%<br />
TOTAL 131.997 100%<br />
Italy<br />
3%<br />
Argentine Morocco<br />
11% 4%<br />
Turkey<br />
3%<br />
Egypt<br />
2%<br />
Grece<br />
21%<br />
Portugal<br />
1%<br />
Other<br />
5%<br />
Spain Grece Morocco Argentine Italy<br />
Turkey Egypt Portugal Other<br />
Spain<br />
50%<br />
*Source: IOOC, compiled from data of U.S. customs statistics – (General Imports)
<strong>2014</strong> – Crop Report<br />
INITIAL <strong>CROP</strong> <strong>REPORT</strong><br />
Olives - SPAIN<br />
MAIN FACTS<br />
• Olive crop for <strong>2014</strong> is estimated to be higher than last year’s crop.<br />
• By variety, Queens are double in tonnage from last year. No commercial carryover available.<br />
Quality and size are good, with smaller percentage of azafairon. We should expect lower prices<br />
compared to last year prices. Harvest has finalized.<br />
• For Manzanillas, tonnage is expected to be 20/30% higher than last year, but final quantities will<br />
depend on weather conditions. Good sizes and quality. Costs should be very similar to last year.<br />
Still a couple of weeks to finish the harvest.<br />
• Hojiblancas will be lower in quantity and higher in price, due to the effect of olive oil prices and a<br />
short crop expected for olive oil season. Still at the very beginning of the harvest.<br />
• Other cost factors, specially the euro/dollar exchange rate, will have a more important impact in<br />
the final cost of the products.<br />
• Spain is still the largest olive producer in the world, with 20% of total production. Seville continues<br />
to be the most important region in Spain for table olives.<br />
• Spain remains the number one supplier for olives imported into the US, with 50% share.
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