Building prisons in England and Wales the bigger the better?

5 Building prisons in England and Wales: the bigger, the better?
1. Introduction: The rise, fall and
rise again of the prison
population
What lies beneath the growth in the prison population?
Since 2011, the prison population has fluctuated at around 85,000. It currently stands at
85,461 (including those held in immigration removal centres, as at 29 January 2016).
The MoJ’s latest projections suggest that the prison population may rise to 86,700 by the
end of June 2016 and to 89,900 by March 2021. 1
For a discussion of the factors underlying the growth of the prison population, see the
Commons Library briefing papers
• Prison population and overcrowding: key issues for the 2015 Parliament (May 2015)
• Reducing reoffending: the “what works” debate (December 2012) and
• Prison population: social indicators page (November 2015)
The prison population rose sharply from the early 1990s, but has more
recently levelled off. In December 2011 it reached a record high of
88,179, but since then has fluctuated at around 85,000 and is currently
at 85,461 (including those held in immigration removal centres, as at 29
January 2016). 2
The MoJ’s most recent projections indicate that they are expecting the
prison population to rise again and could reach 89,900 by March 2021. 3
Successive governments have sought to keep pace with a rising prison
population and, at the same time, to replace old and inefficient prisons
with more modern provision. More recently, a drop in the prison
population has reduced the pressure to increase prison capacity,
although the Ministry of Justice (MoJ) continues to seek ways of
reducing costs.
A particularly noticeable trend in the prison population has been the fall
in the number of young inmates; the under-21 age group accounted for
around a tenth of the prison population at its peak in March 2012, but
has accounted for three-quarters of the fall in the total prison
population since then. There have been falls across most sentenceduration
categories, including a large percentage fall in the number of
prisoners serving a sentence of six months or less (down 22% between
March 2012 and December 2013). 4
1
MoJ, Statistics Bulletin, Prison Population Projections 2015 – 2021 England and
Wales, 26 November 2015
2
MoJ Population and capacity briefing for Friday 29 January 2016
3
MoJ, Statistics Bulletin, Prison Population Projections 2015 – 2021 England and
Wales, 26 November 2015. The projected rise in the prison population is largely due
(the MoJ says) to “recent trends in offender case mix, where we have seen more
serious cases (e.g. sexual offences) come before the courts. This results in offenders
receiving longer custodial sentence lengths, which in turn places an upward pressure
on the prison population”.
4
MoJ Offender management statistics quarterly