A guide to online trading
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What are CFDs?<br />
CFDs, or contracts for<br />
difference, are a flexible<br />
alternative <strong>to</strong> <strong>trading</strong> on the<br />
price movement of<br />
thousands of global markets,<br />
including forex, indices,<br />
shares and commodities.<br />
When you trade CFDs, you<br />
don’t own the underlying<br />
product, but rather bet on<br />
the price movement of that<br />
product, which means you<br />
can take advantage of prices<br />
moving up or down in value.<br />
When <strong>trading</strong> a CFD you are<br />
<strong>trading</strong> in multiples of the<br />
value of each CFD contract.<br />
For example a UK100 CFD<br />
has a contract size of £10.<br />
This means, for every point<br />
the price moves in your<br />
favour, you gain multiples<br />
of the number of units you<br />
have bought or sold. For<br />
every point the price moves<br />
against you, you will make a<br />
loss.<br />
What are the<br />
advantages of CFD<br />
Trading?<br />
CFDs are a leveraged<br />
product, which means you<br />
only need <strong>to</strong> deposit a small<br />
percentage of the full<br />
value of your position. This<br />
is called ‘<strong>trading</strong> on margin’.<br />
While <strong>trading</strong> on margin<br />
allows you <strong>to</strong> magnify your<br />
profits, remember, losses<br />
will also be magnified as<br />
they are based on the full<br />
value of the position.<br />
This means you could lose<br />
more than the amount you<br />
placed <strong>to</strong> make the trade.<br />
This is why, when <strong>trading</strong><br />
CFDs with LCG, you have<br />
access <strong>to</strong> risk management<br />
<strong>to</strong>ols, such as guaranteed<br />
s<strong>to</strong>ps, which means you can<br />
effectively manage your<br />
risk exposure and cap your<br />
losses, before you have even<br />
placed the actual trade.<br />
Besides the ability <strong>to</strong><br />
increase your buying<br />
power, there is no stamp<br />
duty <strong>to</strong> pay, as you don’t<br />
actually own the underlying<br />
asset and you can also take<br />
either a short (sell) or long<br />
(buy) position, giving you<br />
greater <strong>trading</strong> flexibility.<br />
Is CFD <strong>trading</strong> for you?<br />
Trading CFDs is ideal for<br />
active traders with a strong<br />
understanding of the<br />
markets. It’s a flexible,<br />
efficient way <strong>to</strong> diversify<br />
your portfolio in<strong>to</strong> different<br />
global markets and expand<br />
your <strong>trading</strong> opportunities.<br />
When you trade CFDs with<br />
LCG, you’ll enjoy tight,<br />
industry leading spreads and<br />
an exceptionally competitive<br />
price.<br />
How <strong>to</strong> get started<br />
Our multi asset class<br />
<strong>trading</strong> platform, LCG<br />
Trader, let’s you trade<br />
thousands of CFDs directly<br />
from charts on mobile,<br />
tablet and desk<strong>to</strong>p<br />
delivering a superior <strong>trading</strong><br />
experience on all your<br />
devices. To start <strong>trading</strong><br />
CFDs, open a LCG account<br />
<strong>to</strong>day, and experience the<br />
power <strong>to</strong> Trade Connected.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
1
What is financial<br />
spread betting?<br />
Financial spread betting is<br />
a tax free form of investing,<br />
allowing traders <strong>to</strong> take a<br />
position on whether<br />
global markets including<br />
forex, indices, shares and<br />
commodities will go up or<br />
down in value. When you<br />
spread bet, you are not<br />
buying the underlying product,<br />
but rather betting on<br />
the price movement of that<br />
product, allowing you <strong>to</strong><br />
take either a short (sell) or<br />
long (buy) position, giving<br />
you greater <strong>trading</strong> flexibility.<br />
The spread is the difference<br />
between the sell and<br />
buy price of the product you<br />
are betting on. The more the<br />
market moves in the direction<br />
you predict, the more<br />
profit you make. The more<br />
the market moves in the<br />
opposite direction, the more<br />
you stand <strong>to</strong> lose.<br />
What are the<br />
advantages?<br />
Financial spread betting lets<br />
you trade at a time that suits<br />
you with 24 hour access <strong>to</strong><br />
a wide range of global markets.<br />
You can spread bet on<br />
forex, indices, shares and<br />
commodities and because<br />
you don’t own the underlying<br />
asset you won’t pay<br />
stamp duty or tax on your<br />
profits.<br />
Spread betting also allows<br />
you <strong>to</strong> take a position which<br />
is short or long, so you’ll<br />
have more options and you<br />
can also effectively manage<br />
your risk by using dedicated<br />
s<strong>to</strong>p loss <strong>to</strong>ols.<br />
Is spread betting for<br />
me?<br />
Spread betting is ideal<br />
for active traders with a<br />
strong understanding of<br />
the markets. At LCG you’ll<br />
enjoy tight, industry leading<br />
spreads across a wide range<br />
of global financial markets<br />
so when you spread bet<br />
with us you’ll always get an<br />
exceptionally competitive<br />
price. If you want <strong>to</strong><br />
diversify your portfolio and<br />
take advantage of market<br />
moving events, then<br />
financial spread betting is<br />
definitely for you.<br />
How do I get started?<br />
Our multi asset class <strong>trading</strong><br />
platform, LCG Trader, lets<br />
you spread bet directly<br />
from charts on mobile,<br />
tablet and desk<strong>to</strong>p,<br />
allowing <strong>to</strong> you enjoy a<br />
superior spread betting<br />
experience on all your<br />
devices.<br />
Open an account with us<br />
<strong>to</strong>day, and start <strong>trading</strong><br />
with a demo account <strong>to</strong><br />
learn more. When you’re<br />
ready you can start <strong>trading</strong><br />
using a live account.<br />
LCG Trader<br />
TRADE TRADE CONNECTED<br />
2
Avoiding common<br />
<strong>trading</strong> mistakes<br />
Like any other skill, <strong>online</strong><br />
<strong>trading</strong> takes practice <strong>to</strong><br />
master. Many new traders<br />
start out with little practical<br />
market knowledge which<br />
can lead <strong>to</strong> poor decision<br />
making.<br />
Before you get started it is<br />
very valuable <strong>to</strong> get a basic<br />
understanding of charts<br />
for the market you’d like <strong>to</strong><br />
trade, you should also learn<br />
more about new <strong>trading</strong><br />
methods and strategies.<br />
Understanding the<br />
markets<br />
Remember, <strong>to</strong> become a successful<br />
trader, preparation<br />
is key.<br />
You can study charts for all<br />
of the 4,000 markets we offer<br />
in the LCG Trader Demo<br />
platform and can review<br />
trends, volatility, range and<br />
<strong>trading</strong> fluctuations <strong>to</strong> get a<br />
better feel for the markets<br />
you’re interested in.<br />
The more time you spend<br />
studying the markets you’re<br />
interested in, the more natural<br />
your decisions will be.<br />
You’ll also feel more confident<br />
taking a position if you<br />
have an in-depth knowledge<br />
of the market you’re <strong>trading</strong>.<br />
If you’re just starting out,<br />
immerse yourself in the latest<br />
news, analysis<br />
and research on our website<br />
<strong>to</strong> get up <strong>to</strong> the minute<br />
information on market<br />
moving events.<br />
You’ll also find on-demand<br />
video content covering<br />
everything from getting<br />
started with pending orders<br />
and identifying <strong>trading</strong><br />
trends <strong>to</strong> explanations on<br />
the differences between<br />
technical and fundamental<br />
analysis. At LCG you’ll have<br />
all of the <strong>to</strong>ols and resources<br />
you need <strong>to</strong> be as successful<br />
as possible.<br />
Be realistic about<br />
returns<br />
While you will be able <strong>to</strong><br />
build up <strong>to</strong> making large<br />
profits, when you first start<br />
out be realistic about how<br />
much you trade and the potential<br />
returns you’ll enjoy.<br />
To help get you more familiar<br />
with using our <strong>trading</strong><br />
platform and <strong>to</strong> help you<br />
feel more comfortable placing<br />
trades, start by opening<br />
a Demo Account.<br />
You’ll get £10,000 demo<br />
credits <strong>to</strong> get you started<br />
and can trade<br />
on all our available asset<br />
classes including forex,<br />
indices, shares and commodities.<br />
Formulate a <strong>trading</strong><br />
strategy<br />
When you start <strong>trading</strong>, get<br />
in<strong>to</strong> the habit of devising a<br />
clear <strong>trading</strong> strategy before<br />
you start actually <strong>trading</strong><br />
and stick <strong>to</strong> it.<br />
Start by knowing the volume<br />
of trades you intend <strong>to</strong> place<br />
as well as the kind of positions<br />
you are comfortable<br />
taking, are you comfortable<br />
with a greater or lesser<br />
amount of risk exposure?<br />
Record all of your trades <strong>to</strong>o<br />
for a clearer understand of<br />
what is working for you and<br />
where you can improve your<br />
decision making.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
3
Devising a <strong>trading</strong> plan<br />
and managing risk<br />
One of the most important<br />
aspects for new traders is<br />
understanding risk management<br />
and developing a<br />
sound <strong>trading</strong> plan.<br />
Creating a <strong>trading</strong> plan can<br />
help you determine how<br />
much risk you feel comfortable<br />
with while making<br />
your investment objectives<br />
clearer. A <strong>trading</strong> plan will<br />
also allow you <strong>to</strong> accurately<br />
record entry and exit price<br />
and so track your <strong>trading</strong><br />
performance more precisely.<br />
The more closely you track<br />
your successful and unsuccessful<br />
trades, the easier it<br />
is <strong>to</strong> get a feel for what is<br />
working for you and where<br />
your decision making could<br />
improve.<br />
When devising your <strong>trading</strong><br />
plan keep these points in<br />
mind:<br />
What is your motivation<br />
for <strong>trading</strong>?<br />
How much capital do<br />
you realistically have <strong>to</strong><br />
invest?<br />
Have you considered<br />
setting up a s<strong>to</strong>p loss?<br />
How much time do you<br />
have available for<br />
<strong>trading</strong>?<br />
Finally, what are your<br />
expected returns?<br />
What is your<br />
motivation for <strong>trading</strong>?<br />
Being clear about your<br />
reasons for <strong>trading</strong> will help<br />
you assess the level of risk<br />
you’re comfortable with. For<br />
instance, if you’re <strong>trading</strong> <strong>to</strong><br />
learn more about the financial<br />
markets in general you<br />
will likely not want <strong>to</strong> expose<br />
yourself <strong>to</strong> risky trades<br />
which could see you lose a<br />
larger proportion of your<br />
capital.<br />
If however you are <strong>trading</strong><br />
as a way of increasing<br />
your potential income, then<br />
you’re more likely <strong>to</strong> be risk<br />
averse in search of greater<br />
profit.<br />
How much capital do<br />
you have <strong>to</strong> invest?<br />
Never invest more than you<br />
can afford <strong>to</strong> spend when<br />
you trade <strong>online</strong>. Start with<br />
a realistic amount and bear<br />
in mind that losses can exceed<br />
deposits.<br />
Setting up a s<strong>to</strong>p loss<br />
Setting up a s<strong>to</strong>p loss can be<br />
very beneficial, especially<br />
for traders who have less<br />
time <strong>to</strong> be “hands on” and<br />
active throughout the day.<br />
S<strong>to</strong>p losses are quick and<br />
easy <strong>to</strong> set up and provide a<br />
safety net for your <strong>trading</strong><br />
by closing open positions<br />
once your losses reach a<br />
predefined limit.<br />
You can learn more<br />
about s<strong>to</strong>p losses and<br />
modifying open positions<br />
within our LCG Trader<br />
platform by visiting the<br />
platform tu<strong>to</strong>rial page of<br />
our website.<br />
How much time do<br />
you have for <strong>trading</strong>?<br />
Knowing how much time<br />
you have <strong>to</strong> dedicate <strong>to</strong><br />
your <strong>trading</strong> will help you<br />
get a feel for the type of<br />
positions you can make<br />
the most profit from. Are<br />
you able <strong>to</strong> place trades<br />
which take advantage of<br />
short term market volatility<br />
or is your time more<br />
suited <strong>to</strong> taking longer<br />
term positions?<br />
What are your<br />
expected returns?<br />
Work out what your expected<br />
returns are for your<br />
<strong>trading</strong> by being realistic<br />
about how much you have<br />
<strong>to</strong> invest.<br />
Start with less risky trades<br />
<strong>to</strong> build up your market<br />
knowledge and confidence<br />
before moving <strong>to</strong> bolder<br />
<strong>trading</strong> positions which<br />
offer potentially bigger<br />
profits.<br />
TRADE TRADE CONNECTED<br />
4
Top tips when <strong>trading</strong><br />
FX, commodities,<br />
indices and shares<br />
Diving in<strong>to</strong> the market<br />
without an understanding of<br />
<strong>trading</strong> can be overwhelming<br />
and daunting at first.<br />
Besides deciding exactly<br />
what <strong>to</strong> invest in, there is<br />
also the question of how<br />
much <strong>to</strong> invest, what <strong>to</strong> invest<br />
and when <strong>to</strong> invest.<br />
Understanding a few key<br />
rules for investing successfully<br />
is crucial in improving<br />
your <strong>trading</strong> performance.<br />
Keep these three points<br />
in mind when approaching<br />
<strong>trading</strong> forex, indices, shares<br />
and commodities:<br />
Follow the markets<br />
with LCG<br />
Our education team<br />
provide webinars, seminars<br />
and <strong>online</strong> learning modules,<br />
catering for a range of<br />
<strong>trading</strong> experience as part<br />
of our ongoing education<br />
program for potential and<br />
existing cus<strong>to</strong>mers.<br />
Whether you’re a beginner<br />
or already <strong>trading</strong> CFDs, our<br />
education program is<br />
tailored <strong>to</strong> your level of<br />
<strong>trading</strong> experience. Learn as<br />
much as you can from our<br />
comprehensive education<br />
materials <strong>to</strong> continuously<br />
improve your <strong>trading</strong>.<br />
We’re here <strong>to</strong> help<br />
Each morning your<br />
dedicated account manager<br />
will help <strong>to</strong> highlight the key<br />
<strong>trading</strong> opportunities for<br />
the day ahead and will assist<br />
with any specific<br />
requirements <strong>to</strong> help you<br />
navigate the markets.<br />
Your expert personal<br />
account manager can place<br />
trades at your direction over<br />
the phone and share their<br />
unparalleled market<br />
knowledge <strong>to</strong> help you get<br />
the most from your <strong>trading</strong><br />
with us.<br />
Clarify the risk <strong>to</strong>lerance<br />
Determine the average<br />
<strong>trading</strong> horizon<br />
Decide which<br />
instruments are the most<br />
appropriate for you<br />
At LCG we have put <strong>to</strong>gether<br />
a world class team<br />
consisting of some of the<br />
industry’s best market analysts.<br />
Our team are leaders<br />
in their field and will provide<br />
you with high level analysis,<br />
breaking news and in-depth<br />
market reports. With LCG<br />
you’ll get access <strong>to</strong> the <strong>to</strong>ols<br />
and data you need <strong>to</strong> take<br />
your <strong>trading</strong> <strong>to</strong> the next<br />
level and you’ll learn more<br />
about managing risk <strong>to</strong>lerance<br />
and understanding the<br />
<strong>trading</strong> universe.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
5
Understand Gross<br />
Domestic Product<br />
Gross Domestic Product<br />
(GDP) is the broadest overall<br />
benchmark of economic<br />
activity and quantifies the<br />
production of goods and<br />
services within any given<br />
country.<br />
Arguably one of the most<br />
important economic statistics,<br />
GDP is calculated by<br />
adding all expenditures and<br />
all final goods and services<br />
produced during the year as<br />
shown in the equation below:<br />
GDP = C + I + G + (X - M).<br />
Where:<br />
C = Consumption (household<br />
consumption – like<br />
rent, food, fuel)<br />
I = Investment (can include<br />
household investment in<br />
property, business spending<br />
on equipment)<br />
G = Government expenditure<br />
and investment (<strong>to</strong>tal<br />
of all government spending,<br />
public sec<strong>to</strong>r salaries, defence<br />
spending)<br />
(X-M) = Net exports (exports<br />
minus imports)<br />
(Note: higher net exports<br />
are more economically<br />
productive)<br />
U.S., regardless of the producer’s<br />
nationality. GNP<br />
does not include goods<br />
and a service produced<br />
by foreign producers, but<br />
does include goods and<br />
services produced by U.S.<br />
firms operating in foreign<br />
countries.<br />
GDP and domestic<br />
currency impact<br />
Simply put, any increase in<br />
GDP tends <strong>to</strong> indicate an<br />
improving economy. This is<br />
a generally positive for the<br />
domestic currency.<br />
Any decrease in GDP, relative<br />
<strong>to</strong> the previous quarter<br />
or indeed the same period in<br />
the previous year is generally<br />
negative for the domestic<br />
currency.<br />
Nothing is ever all that simple<br />
so it’s important <strong>to</strong> know<br />
that an extreme economic<br />
expansion can ramp up inflation<br />
expectations and even<br />
create significant inflationary<br />
concerns.<br />
Most, if not all central<br />
banks, have a mandate <strong>to</strong><br />
keep inflation in check.<br />
Any signs that an economy<br />
is overheating might<br />
inspire an interest rate<br />
cut and a tightening of<br />
monetary policy.<br />
Most of the components<br />
that comprise the report<br />
are known well in<br />
advance, meaning that<br />
changes in GDP tend <strong>to</strong><br />
be well anticipated.<br />
If the figure differs from<br />
market expectations,<br />
it has the potential <strong>to</strong><br />
cause significant market<br />
movement.<br />
Remember: Do not confuse<br />
Gross Domestic Product<br />
with Gross National Product<br />
(GNP). GDP includes<br />
only goods and services<br />
produced within the geographic<br />
boundaries of the<br />
TRADE TRADE CONNECTED<br />
6
Leading indica<strong>to</strong>rs for<br />
GDP<br />
Purchasing Manager’s Index<br />
(PMI)<br />
The PMI is released by the<br />
Institute for Supply Management,<br />
formerly the National<br />
Association of Purchasing<br />
Managers. The report collects<br />
“better”, “same” or<br />
“worse” information from a<br />
mere 400 purchasing managers<br />
throughout the country<br />
and compiles it in<strong>to</strong> an<br />
index.<br />
Business Inven<strong>to</strong>ries<br />
It can be quite difficult <strong>to</strong><br />
ascertain what high levels of<br />
inven<strong>to</strong>ry reflect as it may<br />
often by be open <strong>to</strong> interpretation.<br />
An increase in inven<strong>to</strong>ry can<br />
suggest that businesses are<br />
building a glut of inven<strong>to</strong>ry<br />
based on consumer demand<br />
expectations. If higher consumption<br />
materialises, then<br />
this will be both profitable<br />
for the business and ergo<br />
good for the economy.<br />
that consumer confidence is<br />
muted so can thus be a negative<br />
signal for a business<br />
and the economy.<br />
Retail Sales<br />
These are released monthly<br />
by the US Department of<br />
Commerce – on a Thursday<br />
generally 2 weeks after the<br />
end of the reference month.<br />
The data is utilised by many<br />
government sec<strong>to</strong>rs <strong>to</strong> calculate<br />
GDP, inflation as well<br />
as analyse present economic<br />
activity.<br />
Manufacturing activity is<br />
an important segment of<br />
any economy. An increase<br />
in manufacturing output<br />
can suggest more demand<br />
for consumer goods and<br />
since workers are normally<br />
required <strong>to</strong> produce these<br />
goods an increase can help<br />
<strong>to</strong> boost employment and<br />
employee wages.<br />
Always look at the inven<strong>to</strong>ry<br />
levels (more detail below) as<br />
sometimes the goods produced<br />
do not make it all the<br />
way <strong>to</strong> the consumer – often<br />
sitting in s<strong>to</strong>rage until the<br />
demand picks up. Rising retail<br />
sales (more detail below)<br />
in conjunction with rising<br />
manufacturing output can<br />
indicate heightened demand<br />
for consumer goods.<br />
Given its his<strong>to</strong>rical reliability<br />
in helping <strong>to</strong> predict<br />
growth in gross domestic<br />
product (GDP), it’s important<br />
<strong>to</strong> be aware of these<br />
data points in concert.<br />
On the flipside, holding<br />
inven<strong>to</strong>ries costs money<br />
in s<strong>to</strong>rage costs and high<br />
inven<strong>to</strong>ry levels can sometimes<br />
indicate that supply<br />
exceeds demand. This can<br />
often be a sign that retail<br />
sales are inadequate and<br />
Strong retail sales will in<br />
general directly increase<br />
GDP. Improving sales for a<br />
company means profitability<br />
and also that company can<br />
potentially hire more employees<br />
so all in all its good<br />
news for a domestic economy<br />
and ergo its currency.<br />
Example<br />
US Retail Sales for April 2015 missed expectations. The consensus<br />
was for a rise of 0.2% on the previous month. The dollar was<br />
sold off relative <strong>to</strong> the pound as a result. It lost 67 points in the<br />
hour following the release but continued <strong>to</strong> depreciate over the<br />
next 24 hours shedding a <strong>to</strong>tal of 180 points against the British<br />
pound.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
7
Building Permits and<br />
the Housing Market<br />
Permits give insight in<strong>to</strong><br />
future real estate supplies.<br />
High volume would indicate<br />
an active construction industry<br />
which in turn brings<br />
more jobs and an increase in<br />
GDP.<br />
Bear in mind that, like inven<strong>to</strong>ry<br />
levels, if consumers<br />
are not willing <strong>to</strong> buy, there<br />
will be a surplus of housing<br />
which will likely lead <strong>to</strong> declining<br />
house prices.<br />
Declines in housing have<br />
a negative impact on the<br />
economy for several reasons:<br />
1. They decrease homeowner<br />
wealth.<br />
2. They reduce the number<br />
of construction jobs needed<br />
<strong>to</strong> build new homes,<br />
which in turn increases<br />
unemployment.<br />
3. They reduce property<br />
taxes, which limits government<br />
resources.<br />
4. Homeowners are less<br />
able <strong>to</strong> refinance or sell<br />
their homes, which may<br />
force them in<strong>to</strong> foreclosure.<br />
When you look at housing<br />
data, look at two things:<br />
changes in housing values<br />
and changes in sales. When<br />
sales decline, it generally indicates<br />
that values will also<br />
drop. For example, the collapse<br />
of the housing bubble<br />
in 2007 had dire effects on<br />
the economy and is widely<br />
blamed for driving the United<br />
States in<strong>to</strong> a recession.<br />
Why do the markets<br />
care?<br />
Given that the old adage<br />
states that when the US<br />
sneezes, Europe catches a<br />
cold; US GDP is important<br />
both domestically and globally<br />
speaking.<br />
The health of any economy<br />
is intimately connected <strong>to</strong><br />
consumer sentiment but<br />
the health of the<br />
world’s biggest<br />
economy is important<br />
<strong>to</strong> global sentiment.<br />
When all is said and done,<br />
sentiment is what drives<br />
markets.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
8
Understanding Nonfarm<br />
payroll (NFP)<br />
Nonfarm payroll is an economic<br />
indica<strong>to</strong>r used <strong>to</strong><br />
describe the number of<br />
employees at manufacturing,<br />
construction and goods<br />
companies in the US.<br />
This indica<strong>to</strong>r does not include<br />
the farm workers and<br />
private households as the<br />
name suggests.<br />
The change in nonfarm jobs<br />
is closely watched as traders<br />
use the data as an indication<br />
of the economic performance<br />
<strong>to</strong> predict the Federal<br />
Reserve’s monetary policy<br />
outlook and <strong>to</strong> trade upon it.<br />
Besides the nonfarm payrolls,<br />
the unemployment and<br />
participation rate as well as<br />
the change in average earnings<br />
are important <strong>to</strong> complete<br />
the picture.<br />
The change in non-farm<br />
payrolls is released the first<br />
Friday of each month and<br />
generally triggers meaningful<br />
price action in intraday<br />
<strong>trading</strong>. Volatility means<br />
opportunity.<br />
How does a trader read the<br />
change in non-farm payrolls<br />
and take a bet?<br />
It is all about the market<br />
expectations. Numerous<br />
market surveys define the<br />
consensus – an average<br />
expectation – for the data<br />
release each month.<br />
On June 5, 2015 the consensus<br />
for the nonfarm<br />
payroll was 226K. The release<br />
of 280K surprised the<br />
market on<br />
the upside and triggered immediate US dollar purchases as a<br />
knee-jerk reaction.<br />
Figure 1 – EURUSD reacts <strong>to</strong> Nonfarm payroll release on<br />
June 5, 2015<br />
In the Figure 1, the EURUSD instantly sold-off from 1.1276<br />
<strong>to</strong> 1.1075 as the US jobs data beat the market estimates.<br />
Traders became more optimistic regarding the US economy<br />
and speculated that the Federal Reserve may increase the<br />
interest rate in September, rather than a quarter later as previously<br />
thought.<br />
This has been positive news for the US dollar and got instantaneously<br />
priced in by the FX traders. The EURUSD extended<br />
weakness <strong>to</strong> 1.1050, short-term support level, over couple of<br />
minutes following the release and rebounded <strong>to</strong> 1.1100/10<br />
as the first reaction got absorbed by the market.<br />
Alternative case: What if the data had missed the market<br />
expectation on June 5?<br />
The size of the price action depends on how disappointing<br />
or how surprising the data is. A quick glance <strong>to</strong> expectations<br />
is enough <strong>to</strong> observe the importance of the 200K threshold.<br />
Naturally, the psychological levels are important in economic<br />
data releases.<br />
A read below this level would have triggered a US dollar<br />
sell-off and push the euro <strong>to</strong> higher levels. In this alternative<br />
case scenario, the technical resistance levels would be activated.<br />
Placing ourselves on June 5, the 1.1314 <strong>to</strong>p which was<br />
hit the eve of the nonfarm payroll release would be the key<br />
level moni<strong>to</strong>red by traders, where a potential breakout would<br />
place the 1.1467, the five month high, in focus.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
9
It is often <strong>to</strong>o late <strong>to</strong><br />
trade once the data is<br />
out<br />
Given that the reaction<br />
move is very rapid, it is<br />
almost impossible <strong>to</strong> enter<br />
a trade once the data is out.<br />
This means that traders<br />
place their buy or sell orders<br />
before the economic<br />
release, according <strong>to</strong> their<br />
own prediction on the upcoming<br />
data.<br />
In a similar way, the rapid<br />
price action requires a solid<br />
risk management. Once the<br />
reaction move is triggered,<br />
it is almost impossible <strong>to</strong><br />
get out of an open position.<br />
Therefore, the s<strong>to</strong>p loss<br />
orders are good protection<br />
if the market moves on the<br />
opposite direction.<br />
Some traders may believe<br />
the US economic performance<br />
has not been good<br />
enough <strong>to</strong> create 226K (consensus)<br />
jobs, while others<br />
may think that more jobs<br />
have been added during the<br />
observed month. As decent<br />
buy and sell orders stand<br />
before the release, the<br />
movement, in either direction,<br />
generally happens very<br />
quickly.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
10
Understanding more<br />
about short selling<br />
Short selling is the sale of<br />
security that is not owned<br />
by the seller. Short-selling<br />
borrows the s<strong>to</strong>ck <strong>to</strong> sell<br />
with a promise <strong>to</strong> deliver the<br />
security back <strong>to</strong> the original<br />
owner at some time in the<br />
future.<br />
This means that selling short<br />
a s<strong>to</strong>ck implies a buy back in<br />
the future for restitution.<br />
The brokerage companies<br />
are the most commonly used<br />
as lenders that play the role<br />
of intermediary between the<br />
inves<strong>to</strong>rs and the short-sellers<br />
in exchange of a fee.<br />
Somewhat a<br />
contradic<strong>to</strong>ry view of an<br />
investment, short-selling is<br />
a way <strong>to</strong> generate return on<br />
poorly performing security.<br />
In practice…<br />
Back in days, short selling<br />
was mostly at financial institutions,<br />
hedge funds and<br />
a handful of individual traders’<br />
disposal.<br />
Today, a fast growing industry<br />
of brokers offers the<br />
short-selling possibility <strong>to</strong> a<br />
vast pallet of inves<strong>to</strong>rs and<br />
at very competitive prices.<br />
A margin account allows an<br />
inves<strong>to</strong>r <strong>to</strong> borrow cash in<br />
exchange of the initial investment<br />
as collateral.<br />
The <strong>online</strong> brokerage firms<br />
give the opportunity <strong>to</strong><br />
short sell a s<strong>to</strong>ck via a single<br />
click. ‘Short sell’ or ‘sell <strong>to</strong><br />
cover’ are the most commonly<br />
used wording on a<br />
<strong>trading</strong> platform.<br />
As the inves<strong>to</strong>r places a<br />
short sell order, the brokerage<br />
firm borrows the shares<br />
from its own inven<strong>to</strong>ry, on<br />
the margin account of one of<br />
its clients or from another<br />
broker and sells the borrowed<br />
shares in the market.<br />
The proceeds from the sale<br />
of shares are then credited<br />
on inves<strong>to</strong>r’s account. The<br />
profit and loss is calculated<br />
on the differential of the<br />
sale price and the market<br />
price.<br />
LCG Trader<br />
mobile phone<br />
app<br />
Given that the s<strong>to</strong>ck price<br />
cannot slip below zero, the<br />
gains are limited. The risk of<br />
loss, however, is unlimited<br />
while selling short a security,<br />
the price of a security can<br />
rise infinitely. Therefore,<br />
only experienced traders are<br />
recommended <strong>to</strong> sell short.<br />
Short selling is, and cannot<br />
be, a long-term strategy given<br />
that companies are here<br />
<strong>to</strong> succeed and not <strong>to</strong> fail.<br />
S<strong>to</strong>cks are naturally expected<br />
<strong>to</strong> gain in value over time.<br />
Selling a s<strong>to</strong>ck is mostly<br />
swimming against the flow<br />
and is therefore a risky play.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
11
Understanding the<br />
Consumer Price Index<br />
The Consumer Price Index<br />
(CPI) is the most widely<br />
used measure for tracking<br />
the price of a weighted<br />
basket of goods and services<br />
purchased by households. It<br />
is the basic measure of how<br />
expensive a regular consumer<br />
basket becomes from one<br />
month <strong>to</strong> another.<br />
Read our short article for<br />
more information on what<br />
comprises CPI, how often<br />
data is published, what influences<br />
CPI and <strong>to</strong>p tips for<br />
<strong>trading</strong>.<br />
The consumer basket<br />
includes standard<br />
goods and services<br />
that a standard household<br />
would consume<br />
on monthly or yearly<br />
basis and the weights<br />
are attributed on the<br />
basis of general consumption<br />
patterns in<br />
a particular region,<br />
hence they may differ<br />
geographically. In the<br />
UK, pota<strong>to</strong>es will certainly<br />
weight heavier<br />
in a standard consumer’s<br />
basket while in<br />
France, we would expect<br />
the baguette prices<br />
<strong>to</strong> be more relevant<br />
<strong>to</strong> see how expensive<br />
life has become for a<br />
standard household.<br />
Hence food and beverages<br />
would weigh<br />
heavier in a typical<br />
consumer basket<br />
in a family living in<br />
an emerging country<br />
while a standard<br />
family in a developed<br />
country is expected <strong>to</strong><br />
spend a larger proportion<br />
of its budget in<br />
technology and recreation.<br />
The consumer price<br />
index is released on<br />
monthly basis. Given<br />
the volatile nature of<br />
food and energy prices,<br />
the central bankers<br />
and traders usually<br />
base decisions on the<br />
core consumer price<br />
index, which excludes<br />
food and energy components<br />
<strong>to</strong> give a<br />
clearer picture of the<br />
underlying price dynamics.<br />
How <strong>to</strong> trade the CPI?<br />
In practice, it is not the<br />
inflation number itself that<br />
matters; it is the gap between<br />
the inflation expectation<br />
and the realised inflation<br />
that is going <strong>to</strong> give the<br />
market a direction.<br />
In order <strong>to</strong> understand<br />
whether a strong, or weak,<br />
inflation number is good, or<br />
bad, traders should be well<br />
aware of the macroeconomic<br />
context.<br />
Nowadays, developed markets<br />
are struggling <strong>to</strong> step<br />
out of a deflationary cycle.<br />
So a strong read is positive<br />
for their currency.<br />
As an example, we can<br />
say that a better-than-expected<br />
Eurozone inflation<br />
could trigger a positive<br />
reaction and send the euro<br />
higher against the dollar.<br />
In contrary, the emerging<br />
markets fight against<br />
the overheating consumer<br />
prices and do not like inflation.<br />
Therefore in Brazil,<br />
a stronger-than-expected<br />
inflation number will trigger<br />
a sell-off in real.<br />
Of course, the above stated<br />
examples are not pre-set<br />
rules. The market could react<br />
in the opposite direction<br />
if there are second-degree<br />
fac<strong>to</strong>rs priced in by the majority<br />
of market participants.<br />
If the Brazilian Central Bank<br />
is ready <strong>to</strong> increase its monetary<br />
policy rate <strong>to</strong> control<br />
the inflation, then a stronger<br />
inflation number would revive<br />
the speculation of a rate hike<br />
and bring traders <strong>to</strong> position<br />
themselves on the buy side of<br />
the game.<br />
This is why the interpretation<br />
of a macroeconomic data could<br />
be very complex. It is critical <strong>to</strong><br />
be fully aware of the macroeconomic<br />
setting before taking<br />
a directional position.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
12
What are CFDs?<br />
CFDs, or contracts for difference,<br />
are a flexible alternative<br />
<strong>to</strong> <strong>trading</strong> on the<br />
price movement of thousands<br />
of global markets,<br />
including forex, indices,<br />
shares and commodities.<br />
When you trade CFDs, you<br />
don’t own the underlying<br />
product, but rather bet<br />
on the price movement of<br />
that product, which means<br />
you can take advantage of<br />
prices moving up or down in<br />
value. When <strong>trading</strong> a CFD<br />
you are <strong>trading</strong> in multiples<br />
of the<br />
value of each CFD contract.<br />
For example a UK100 CFD<br />
has a contract size of £10.<br />
This means, for every point<br />
the price moves in your<br />
favour, you gain multiples<br />
of the number of units you<br />
have bought or sold. For<br />
every point the price moves<br />
against you, you will make<br />
a loss.<br />
What are the<br />
advantages of CFD<br />
Trading?<br />
CFDs are a leveraged product,<br />
which means you only<br />
need <strong>to</strong> deposit a small percentage<br />
of the full value of<br />
your position. This is called<br />
‘<strong>trading</strong> on margin’. While<br />
<strong>trading</strong> on margin allows<br />
you <strong>to</strong> magnify your profits,<br />
remember, losses will also<br />
be magnified as they are<br />
based on the full value of<br />
the position.<br />
This means you could lose<br />
more than the amount you<br />
placed <strong>to</strong> make the trade.<br />
This is why, when <strong>trading</strong><br />
CFDs with LCG, you have<br />
access <strong>to</strong> risk management<br />
<strong>to</strong>ols, such as guaranteed<br />
s<strong>to</strong>ps, which means you<br />
can effectively manage<br />
your risk exposure and cap<br />
your losses, before you<br />
have even placed the actual<br />
trade.Besides the ability <strong>to</strong><br />
increase your buying power,<br />
there is no stamp duty<br />
<strong>to</strong> pay, as you don’t actually<br />
own the underlying asset<br />
and you can also take either<br />
a short (sell) or long (buy)<br />
position, giving you greater<br />
<strong>trading</strong> flexibility.<br />
Is CFD <strong>trading</strong> for you?<br />
Trading CFDs is ideal for<br />
active traders with a strong<br />
understanding of the markets.<br />
It’s a flexible, efficient<br />
way <strong>to</strong> diversify your portfolio<br />
in<strong>to</strong> different global<br />
markets and expand your<br />
<strong>trading</strong> opportunities.<br />
When you trade CFDs with<br />
LCG, you’ll enjoy tight, industry<br />
leading spreads and<br />
an exceptionally competitive<br />
price.<br />
How <strong>to</strong> get started<br />
Our multi asset class <strong>trading</strong><br />
platform, LCG Trader, let’s you<br />
trade thousands of CFDs directly<br />
from charts on mobile, tablet and<br />
desk<strong>to</strong>p delivering a superior<br />
<strong>trading</strong> experience on all your<br />
devices. To start <strong>trading</strong> CFDs,<br />
open a LCG account <strong>to</strong>day, and<br />
experience the power <strong>to</strong> Trade<br />
Connected.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
1
What is financial spread<br />
betting?<br />
Financial spread betting is a tax free<br />
form of investing, allowing traders<br />
<strong>to</strong> take a position on whether global<br />
markets including forex, indices,<br />
shares and commodities will go up<br />
or down in value. When you spread<br />
bet, you are not buying the underlying<br />
product, but rather betting on<br />
the price movement of that product,<br />
allowing you <strong>to</strong> take either a short<br />
(sell) or long (buy) position, giving<br />
you greater <strong>trading</strong> flexibility. The<br />
spread is the difference between the<br />
sell and buy price of the product you<br />
are betting on. The more the market<br />
moves in the direction you predict,<br />
the more profit you make. The more<br />
the market moves in the opposite direction,<br />
the more you stand <strong>to</strong> lose.<br />
How do I get started?<br />
Our multi asset class <strong>trading</strong><br />
platform, LCG Trader, lets<br />
you spread bet directly from<br />
charts on mobile, tablet and<br />
desk<strong>to</strong>p, allowing <strong>to</strong> you enjoy<br />
a superior spread betting<br />
experience on all your devices.<br />
Open an account with us<br />
<strong>to</strong>day, and start <strong>trading</strong> with a<br />
demo account <strong>to</strong> learn more.<br />
When you’re ready you can<br />
start <strong>trading</strong> using a live account.<br />
What are the advantages?<br />
Financial spread betting lets you<br />
trade at a time that suits you with<br />
24 hour access <strong>to</strong> a wide range of<br />
global markets. You can spread bet<br />
on forex, indices, shares and commodities<br />
and because you don’t own<br />
the underlying asset you won’t pay<br />
stamp duty or tax on your profits.<br />
Spread betting also allows you <strong>to</strong><br />
take a position which is short or<br />
long, so you’ll have more options and<br />
you can also effectively manage your<br />
risk by using dedicated s<strong>to</strong>p loss<br />
<strong>to</strong>ols.<br />
Is spread betting for me?<br />
Spread betting is ideal for active<br />
traders with a strong understanding<br />
of the markets. At LCG you’ll enjoy<br />
tight, industry leading spreads<br />
across a wide range of global financial<br />
markets so when you spread bet<br />
with us you’ll always get an exceptionally<br />
competitive price. If you<br />
want <strong>to</strong> diversify your portfolio and<br />
take advantage of market moving<br />
events, then financial spread betting<br />
is definitely for you.<br />
1 Knightsbridge London, SW1X 7LX<br />
TRADE CONNECTED
What is financial spread betting?<br />
Brenda Kelly | Head Analyst<br />
What is financial spread betting?<br />
It’s a tax free form of investing, allowing traders <strong>to</strong> take a position on whether global<br />
markets including forex, indices, shares and commodities will go up or down in value.<br />
When you spread bet, you are not buying the underlying product, but rather betting on the price<br />
movement of that product, allowing you <strong>to</strong> take either a short (sell) or long (buy)<br />
position, giving you greater <strong>trading</strong> flexibility.<br />
The spread is the difference between the sell and buy price of the product you are betting on. The<br />
more the market moves in the direction you predict, the more profit you make. The more the market<br />
moves in the opposite direction, the more you lose.<br />
What are the advantages?<br />
Financial spread betting lets you trade at a time that suits you with 24 hour access <strong>to</strong> a wide range of<br />
global markets. You can spread bet on forex, indices, shares and commodities and<br />
because you don’t own the underlying asset you won’t pay stamp duty or tax on your profits.<br />
Spread betting also allows you <strong>to</strong> take a position which is short or long, so you’ll have more<br />
options and you can also effectively manage your risk by using dedicated s<strong>to</strong>p loss <strong>to</strong>ols.<br />
Is spread betting for me?<br />
Spread betting is ideal for active traders with a strong understanding of the markets.<br />
At LCG you’ll enjoy tight, industry leading spreads across a wide range of global financial markets<br />
so when you spread bet with us you’ll always get an exceptionally competitive price. If you want <strong>to</strong><br />
diversify your portfolio and take advantage of market moving events, then financial spread betting is<br />
definitely for you.<br />
How do I get started?<br />
Our multi asset class <strong>trading</strong> platform, LCG Trader, let’s you spread bet directly from charts on<br />
mobile, tablet and desk<strong>to</strong>p, allowing <strong>to</strong> you enjoy a superior spread betting experience on all your<br />
devices. Open an account with us <strong>to</strong>day, and experience the power <strong>to</strong> “trade connected”.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
1
What is financial spread betting?<br />
Brenda Kelly | Head Analyst<br />
What is financial spread betting?<br />
It’s a tax free form of investing, allowing traders <strong>to</strong> take a position on whether global<br />
markets including forex, indices, shares and commodities will go up or down in value.<br />
When you spread bet, you are not buying the underlying product, but rather betting on the price<br />
movement of that product, allowing you <strong>to</strong> take either a short (sell) or long (buy)<br />
position, giving you greater <strong>trading</strong> flexibility.<br />
The spread is the difference between the sell and buy price of the product you are betting on. The<br />
more the market moves in the direction you predict, the more profit you make. The more the market<br />
moves in the opposite direction, the more you lose.<br />
What are the advantages?<br />
Financial spread betting lets you trade at a time that suits you with 24 hour access <strong>to</strong> a wide range of<br />
global markets. You can spread bet on forex, indices, shares and commodities and<br />
because you don’t own the underlying asset you won’t pay stamp duty or tax on your profits.<br />
Spread betting also allows you <strong>to</strong> take a position which is short or long, so you’ll have more<br />
options and you can also effectively manage your risk by using dedicated s<strong>to</strong>p loss <strong>to</strong>ols.<br />
Is spread betting for me?<br />
Spread betting is ideal for active traders with a strong understanding of the markets.<br />
At LCG you’ll enjoy tight, industry leading spreads across a wide range of global financial markets<br />
so when you spread bet with us you’ll always get an exceptionally competitive price. If you want <strong>to</strong><br />
diversify your portfolio and take advantage of market moving events, then financial spread betting is<br />
definitely for you.<br />
How do I get started?<br />
Our multi asset class <strong>trading</strong> platform, LCG Trader, let’s you spread bet directly from charts on<br />
mobile, tablet and desk<strong>to</strong>p, allowing <strong>to</strong> you enjoy a superior spread betting experience on all your<br />
devices. Open an account with us <strong>to</strong>day, and experience the power <strong>to</strong> “trade connected”.<br />
TRADE CONNECTED<br />
1