MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA

A financial Advisory 

Company 

FEBRUARY 2016 

MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA 

NIGERIA | KENYA | TANZANIA | ZAMBIA | UGANDA | RWANDA


Company 


Company 

Table of Contents 

NIGERIA 

KENYA 

TANZANIA 

ZAMBIA 

UGANDA 

RWANDA 

SEPTEMBER FEBRUARY 2016 2015 | | MARKET UPDATE – – AFRICA 

2 

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FEBRUARY 2016 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA 

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NIGERIA 

POLITICAL OUTLOOK 

Foiled Boko Haram Attack Augurs well for Risk 

Outlook 

The foiled Boko Haram attack in Bauchi State (January 

2016) sends a good gesture on the state of the 

country’s intelligence and preparedness to combat 

the insurgency that has claimed lives and occasioned 

displacement of persons. This comes as a welcome 

indicator of the country’s political risk which has been 

dented by recurrent attacks in the recent past. 

Multi-National Force: Will it deliver? 

A key point of focus going forward will be how the Multi- 

National Joint Task Force (MNJTF) co-ordinates efforts 

to combat the insurgency. The force incorporates an 

estimated 8,700 troops from Chad, Nigeria, Niger, 

Cameroon and Benin. We expect porous borders, 

which provide a channel for smuggling of arms, to 

remain a major challenge in arresting the menace. In 

2014, the Comptroller of Nigeria Immigration Service 

indicated there existed in excess of 1,400 illegal routes 

into the country against an approved 84 border control 

posts 1 . This creates a fragile point in the fight against 

Boko Haram. 

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 

Central Bank likely to Devalue the Naira as Oil Price 

Tumble Worsens 

With oil prices deteriorating further (below the USD 

30/barrel mark in January 2016) and the country’s 

fiscal balance slipping further into the red, we foresee 

the Central Bank back-pedalling and devaluing the 

Naira between Q1, 2016 and the end of Q2, 2016. 

The recent deceleration of growth momentum leaves 

the economy hurtling towards near stagnation and 

this is likely to necessitate revision of the central 

bank’s stance on the currency with a view to boosting 

proceeds from exports in 2016. Further, the bank 

must be wary of rattling investor confidence as it did 

following unorthodox measures of supporting the 

Naira in 2015. 

Note: In September 2015, JP Morgan delisted Nigeria 

from its Local Currency Emerging Markets Bonds Index 

in view of foreign exchange restrictions adopted by the 

Central Bank. 

In November 2015, the Central Bank slashed its 

benchmark rate by 200.0 bps to 11.0%, at a time when 

inflation had breached the target ceiling of 9.0% by 40.0 

bps, suggesting the need to stimulate the economy is 

being accorded foremost consideration. 

GDP Growth 

8.0% 

7.0% 

6.0% 

5.0% 

4.0% 

3.0% 

2.0% 

Q1, 2013 

Q2, 2013 

Q23, 2013 

Q4, 2013 

Source: Bloomberg, National Bureau of Statistics, StratLink Africa 

DEBT MARKET UPDATE 

Q1, 2014 

Q2, 2014 

Q3, 2014 

Q4, 2014 

Q1, 2015 

Q2, 2015 

Q3, 2015 

Domestic Borrowing and Inflation Expectations Keep 

Yields on the Uptrend 

Yields reported a slight uptick between December 

2015 and January 2016 despite a rise in liquidity. This is 

likely to be driven by the surge in domestic borrowing 

in December 2015 that grew by 78.0% to USD 2.2 

Billion ─ the largest domestic borrowing since March 

2015 ahead of the general election. 

Primary Market Borrowing (USD) 

Millions 

3,000.0 

2,500.0 

2,000.0 

1,500.0 

1,000.0 

500.0 

- 

Jan-15 

Mar-15 

May-15 

Jul-15 

Source: Central Bank of Nigeria, StratLink Africa 

Sep-15 

Nov-15 

Full report available for purchase via: 


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KENYA 


Political Temperatures Rise ahead of 2017 Election 

The political scene is heating up ahead of the 2017 

general election as factions allied to the government 

and the opposition barnstorm the country in 

grassroots mobilization. This notwithstanding, we 

retain a favourable assessment of the near term risk 

outlook (the next six months) whilst adopting a more 

cautious position on the long-term view given the 

recurrent cases of inter-ethnic border clashes such as 

that in the Nandi-Kisumu border. Recurrence of such 

incidences threatens to undermine political stability 

ahead of the polls and will be a key pointer to look 

out for in the next one year. The National Electoral 

and Boundaries Commission is set to embark on 

voter registration ahead of the polls, an exercise we 

are confident will be accompanied by requisite civic 

education in a bid to mitigate lurking risks that have 

threatened stability in past election cycles. 

BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT 

Energy and Roads Infrastructure to Dominate 

Development Agenda 

We expect Kenya to continue cementing its position 

as the regional commercial and industrial hub given 

investment plans that target largely the energy and 

transport sectors. This will be critically important 

for the country as neighbouring economies such 

as Ethiopia and Tanzania work towards improving 

competitiveness. A spot-check on the major projects 

pipeline for the next five years reveals that up to 48.6% 

of funding will be designated to energy and roads ─ 

potentially presenting a major boost in view of the 

deficit (transport infrastructure and energy) that derail 

the economy’s investor attractiveness. 

Note: Some of the projects are the 300.0 Megawatts 

Lake Turkana wind power projects, the Lamu Port 

South Sudan Ethiopia Transport Corridor and the 120.0 

Megawatts Kipeto Power Project. 


Inflation likely to Rise through Q1 2016 

In line with our forecast, the Central Bank left 

monetary policy instruments (the benchmark rate 

and the Kenya Banks’ Reference Rate) unchanged in 

its first meeting of 2016. Despite inflation standing 

above the target ceiling by 50.0 bps (at 8.0%), the 

Central Bank is likely to have taken cognizance of the 

new Excise Duty Act that took effect in December 

2015 as a key driver of the ceiling breach. We expect 

inflation to continue inching north, closer to the 9.0% 

- 10.0% band, through Q1 2016 on the back of rising 

food prices attributed to the El Nino rains experienced 

in Q4 2015 and early January 2016. 


The yield curve remains inverted despite a discernible 

downtrend in the 91 Day and 364 Day papers’ between 

December 2015 and January 2016. We note that 

liquidity has been comparatively high in the market 

supported by government payments, redemption of 

government securities and Open Market Operation 

Maturities. In the week to January 22nd, 2016, 

the Central Bank is reported to have injected USD 

94.8 Million in liquidity into the market, keeping 

the interbank rate in single digits. The yield curve 

also suggests there is likely to be rising appetite for 

medium to long-term debt for the remaining quarters 

of financial year 2015/16. 



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TANZANIA 


Zanzibar Election Re-run Slated for March 2016 

Zanzibar is set to carry out a re-run of presidential 

elections on March 20th, 2016 after the results of 

the first vote were nullified following allegations 

of irregularities. The announcement comes amid 

calls for boycott of the election by the opposition, 

a development that threatens to deepen the 

political stand-off while increasing uncertainty on 

Tanzania’s near-term political and economic outlook. 

Nonetheless, the new administration has managed 

to contain unrest in Zanzibar, boding well for investor 

perception. The election outcome is still crucial for 

determining Tanzania’s outlook given that the island’s 

quest for greater autonomy has been a teething issue 

for the union. 

Independent USA foreign aid agency, Millennium 

Challenge Corporation, is reported to have withheld 

funding disbursement to Tanzania on account of the 

political stalemate and concerns over infringement of 

basic human rights in view of the Cyber Crime Law 

(2015). 

Opposition to Re-Open Referendum Talks 

Tanzania’s main opposition party, Chadema, is set 

to re-open the referendum debate as it focuses 

on constitutional reforms as its main post-election 

agenda. The stalemate in Zanzibar is partly attributed 

to the stalled constitutional reforms, with fears that 

the island may secede if the opposition-favoured 

three-tier government proposal is successful. 


Controversial Labour Laws Threaten Tanzania’s 

Business Environment 

We downgrade our view of the business climate 

informed by unfavourable labour laws that have 

elicited concern from investors. The Non-Citizen 

(Employment) Regulations 2015 have been the major 

bone of contention, as the government seeks to 

tighten foreign worker policies, a protectionist move 

that threatens Tanzania’s relations with its trading 

partners, particularly, in the East Africa Community 

(EAC). Tanzania trails peers in key areas such as 

adult literacy and this regulation threatens to derail 

the economy’s ability to tap into better skill from 

neighbouring countries. 


The Economy Accelerates in Q3 2015 

Available data indicates Q3 2015 economic growth 

(6.3%) stood marginally above the historical Q3 

average of 6.2% (2006 – 2015), suggesting strong 

resilience by the economy in view of the elevated 

political risk at the time. This sets a good foundation 

for further acceleration in the first half of 2016 

especially with monetary headwinds subsiding and 

the new government engaging aggressive fiscal 

consolidation efforts. Key engines of growth have 

been the construction, mining and transport sectors 

and we expect this to be sustained through the first 

half of 2016. 


There was marginal change in liquidity between 

December 2015 and January 2016 and this trend was 

reflected in minimal change in yields of short-term 

papers between the two months. Yields remain high, 

however, in what could be a reflection of investors’ 

caution over the uptrend in inflation which rose to 

6.8% in December 2015, twenty bps higher than the 

preceding month. 



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ZAMBIA 


General Election set for August 2016 

The presidential and parliamentary elections have 

been slated for August 11th, 2016 in what is widely 

expected to be a heated contest between the 

incumbent government and the main opposition 

party, United Party for National Development (UPND). 

In view of the narrow margin by which the ruling party 

won the last election (January 2015), 48.3% versus 

United Party for National Development’s 46.7%, the 

likelihood of coalitions across the political arena is 

imminent with the new constitution requiring the 

winner to clinch more than 50.0% of votes cast. The 

state of the economy prods us into caution over 

the near term political risk in view of tensions that 

rocked the country in the run-up to the last election. 

President Lungu’s directive to the Electricity Supply 

Corporation (ZESCO) to lower electricity tariffs on 

January 3rd, 2016 has been perceived by many as a 

charm offensive ahead of the elections especially at a 

time when the economy is grappling with an energy 

crisis. Ministry of Energy forecasts suggest the energy 

crisis is likely to prevail in the near term. 


Energy Crisis to Persist as Water Levels Decline in 

Major Reservoir 

The energy crisis could deteriorate following the decline 

of water levels at Kariba dam to 12.0% of capacity 

as at January 18th, 2016. This comes on the back of 

adverse weather conditions that have seen drought hit 

parts of the region. Households and investors in the 

mining sector are most vulnerable to the deteriorated 

conditions given their consumption of the country’s 

energy. World Bank estimates that firms in Zambia 

suffered losses to the tune of 5.0% of sales in 2013, a 

proportion that is likely to have escalated over the last 

one year in view of recurrent outage. 


Kwacha Holds Firm against the Greenback 

The Kwacha found a support level in the 11.1 – 11.3 

band of exchange to the greenback in January 2016, 

propping investor confidence on the near term outlook 

of the economy. Factors that have driven this resilience 

include tight monetary policy and relative weakening 

of the greenback that have reduced the volatility 

witnessed in the Kwacha’s exchange. 

Kwacha to USD Exchange 

14.0 

13.0 

12.0 

11.0 

10.0 

9.0 

8.0 

7.0 

6.0 

5.0 

27-Jan-15 

27-Mar-15 

27-May-15 

Source: Bloomberg, StratLink Africa 


27-Jul-15 

27-Sep-15 

27-Nov-15 

27-Jan-16 

Yields nudged upwards in the short and medium term 

end whilst remaining relatively stable in the longterm. 

This is a likely indication of high risk perception 

by investors in the short and medium term as the 

economy takes a beating from depressed commodity 

prices and the forthcoming general election. In 

the long-term, investor sentiments are likely more 

favourable banking on remedial policy measures 

to address the economic challenges. Inflation 

expectations have equally been significant in leading 

investors to demand higher yields in the short and 

medium term. 



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Company 

UGANDA 


Key Stress Factors ahead of February 2016 Election 

We are cautiously sanguine over the country’s political 

risk outlook ahead of the February 18th, 2016 general 

election premised on a number of potential stress 

considerations: 

• There have been incidents suggestive of intimidation 

of the opposition by the state that could escalate 

tensions in the remaining weeks. In July 2015, 

opposition luminaries Kizza Besigye and Amama 

Mbabazi were arrested for organizing meetings 

without police permission 

• Growing disenfranchisement over the Public Order 

Management Act (2013) which has negated the 

freedom of association across the country 

• Concern over the integrity and fairness of the 

election has been a major issue shaping public 

dialogue and many will be keen to observe how this 

evolves 

Be that as it may, we are confident that the precedent 

set by Nigeria and Tanzania of largely peaceful electoral 

processes will be replicated in Uganda. 


Hiccup on Logistics as World Bank Suspends Funding 

The quest for enhanced connectivity through roads 

infrastructure has hit a snag following World Bank’s 

suspension of funding for the Transport Sector 

Development Project following concern over noncompliance 

by the National Roads Authority (UNRA). 

Available data indicates that at USD 190.0 Million, 

World Bank had committed to fund 95.6% of the 

undertaking and its withdrawal dims prospects. This 

is likely to evoke uncertainty amongst investors who 

have been banking on the roads infrastructure upgrade 

program to boost business. 


Fiscal Position to Deteriorate 

Uganda’s fiscal deficit is likely to deteriorate further 

away from the regional target ratio of 3.0% of GDP on 

the back of rising expenditure in view of ambitious 

infrastructure projects. Stellar performance in 

domestic revenue mobilization, however, sets a good 

precedent for the year underway and if sustained 

could see diminished pressure for domestic borrowing 

that crowds out the private sector. 

Fiscal Balance to GDP Ratio 

0.0% 

-1.0% 

-2.0% 

-3.0% 

-4.0% 

-5.0% 

-6.0% 

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

e 

Source: IMF, StratLink Africa 


2016 

(f) 

Yields exhibited marginal downtrend between 

December 2015 and January 2016 driven by a mild 

rise in liquidity. This trend could reverse in the next 

two months in view of emerging weakness of the 

shilling that may necessitate tightening by Bank of 

Uganda. With inflation approaching the 10.0% mark, 

we expect yields to remain elevated through Q1 2016. 



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Company 

RWANDA 


Courting New Allies 

President Paul Kagame’s January 2016 visit to the 

Middle East has been widely perceived as an indication 

that the government could be courting new allies in 

view of expression of dissatisafaction by a section 

of Western allies over the revision of term limits. 

In October 2015, Rwanda’s Foreign Minister held a 

meeting with his Russian counterpart with a view to 

enhancing bilateral relations. The United States and 

the European Union have termed the revision of term 

limits as undermining democracy and this could see 

relations with Rwanda deteriorate. 

In addition, Rwanda recently formed the Rwanda- 

Turkey Business Council, that is expected to enhance 

trade and economic ties between the two countries. 

As previously reported, foreign development 

assistance makes up 35.6% of budgetary funding, 

and the government of Rwanda is likely taking preemptive 

measures in view of a possible backlash from 

its western allies. The situation is reminiscent of the 

events around the 2012/13 donor aid shock where 

Rwanda turned to China to counter the effects of the 

donor aid cut. On the whole, we view the emerging ties 

as vital for Rwanda’s broadening of potential markets 

and heding against possible shocks in the near term. 

BUSINESS NEWS ENVIRONMENT 

Government Steps in to Streamline Ailing Textiles 

Industry 

Rwanda’s textile industry faced a tumultuous year 

witnessing continuous decline in growth owing to 

increased second hand imports into the market. 

Consequently, government plans to impose 100.0% 

duty on imported clothing by July 2016, in order to 

protect the domestic industry. In the same breath, 

Rwanda is mulling over a joint venture with Chinese 

investors to establish a garment factory in Kigali as 

it looks to develop its own textile industry and cut 

down importation of garments. Available statistics 

show that in 2015, Rwanda spent USD 100.0 Million, 

approximately 5.4% of Rwanda’s import bill, on 

imported wear products, out of which 80.0% were 

textile imports. 


Economy Defies 2015 Headwinds 

The economy weathered the turbulent macroeconomic 

environment in 2015 to register robust acceleration 

growing by 6.1% in Q3, 2015. Whereas this fell below 

the 8.0% registered in the same period in 2014, we 

note that 2014’s growth is likely to have been partly 

driven by the economy’s emergence from the previous 

year’s slump. Additionally, 2014 had, generally, better 

commodity prices that supported the economy’s 

growth. Rwanda’s resilience is partly driven by 

increased credit to the private sector which served 

to stimulate the economy. This has been enabled by 

the accommodative monetary policy stance which has 

been retained at 6.5% since June 2014. 


Yields Rise on Relative Liquidity Tightening 

Yields in the T-Bill market maintained an uptrend in 

the period under review despite subdued appetite 

for domestic debt by the government which saw 

government borrowing decrease by 520.0bps to USD 

60.6 Million, month-on-month. Inflation also declined 

to 4.5% in December, 2015 from 4.8% reported in the 

preceding month. The rise could have been driven 

by two factors. One, available data indicates that the 

interbank rate stands at 3.7% from 3.5% in November 

2015, suggesting relative tightening of liquidity. Two, 

investors could be pricing in political risk expectations 

in view of noise around the revision of term limits 

and a possible backlash from Western allies. 



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StratLink in the News 

StratLink Africa continues to make commentary on emerging issues in frontier and emerging markets. Below please find 

links to the latest pieces. 

Please click the buttons to view the full articles 

eNCA News ─ Subdued Economic Growth for Ten Key Markets in sub-Saharan Africa: The piece draws extensively from 

our January 2016 outlook 

London School of Economics Business Review ─ Nigeria Walks a Tight Rope between Inflation and Slowdown: This 

article assesses Nigeria’s outlook in 2016. 

Venture Burn ─ Three Ways China’s Slowdown Yields Opportunities in Africa : In this piece, Konstantin Makarov delves 

deep into opportunities emerging in Africa following China’s slowdown. 


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STRATLINK AFRICA LTD - WHO WE ARE 

StratLink is an Africa focused financial advisory company 

with Capital Raising Advisory, Corporate Advisory and 

Market Research as our core business lines. We believe in 

the growth potential of sub-Saharan African economies and 

partner with our clients to execute their vision by providing 

quality services and access to capital. We recognize 

opportunities in the region and connect the fastest growing 

middle market companies with leading global investment 

banks, private equity firms and family offices. We value the 

importance of making informed decisions and leverage our 

regional knowledge to the advantage of our clients. 

Sub-Saharan Africa: In-depth macro and microeconomic 

research 

Within our purview of coverage are nine economies – 

Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Ghana, 

Angola and Gabon. We undertake incisive research and 

analysis of each of the countries’ macro and microeconomic 

environment, debt and equity markets. We also conduct 

sector specific research and analysis shedding insight on 

market landscape, existing gaps and opportunities as well 

as potential challenges. 

Our guarantee: Competent team, reliable data 

Our research is anchored in a competent and versatile 

team traversing the fields of economics and finance with 

qualifications from globally recognized institutions. The 

team is backed by subscription to reliable databases such 

as Business Monitor International, Bloomberg, Thomson 

One Research, World Economics and The World Today. 

As such, our guarantee is reliable and up to date data in 

an increasingly dynamic region. Further, we reach out to 

relevant bodies in concerned markets including Central 

Banks, ministries and state departments. 

STRATLINK - AFRICA TEAM 

Konstantin Makarov – Managing Partner 

konstantin.makarov@StratLinkglobal.com 

Dina Farfel – Partner 

dfarfel@StratLinkglobal.com 

Jackson Mwatha – Associate 

jackson.mwatha@StratLinkglobal.com 

Samuel Odero - Analyst 

samuel.oyier@StratLinkglobal.com 

Lewis Muguro - Analyst 

lewis.muguro@StratLinkglobal.com 

Benson Njeri – Analyst 

benson.njeri@StratLinkglobal.com 

Eric Magu – Analyst 

eric.magu@StratLinkglobal.com 

Julians Amboko – Research Analyst 

julians.amboko@StratLinkglobal.com 

Sophia Sifuma – Research Analyst 

sophia.sifuma@StratLinkglobal.com 

Peter Mutisya – Director Graphic Design 

peter.mutisya@StratLinkglobal.com 

Authoritative voice on regional economics 

StratLink has become an authoritative voice for commentary 

and opinion on issues pertaining Sub-Saharan African 

economies and investment. Reputable media including 

CNBC Africa, Nation Media Group, CCTV and Bloomberg 

have reached out to the company for opinion and analysis. 

Where we are based 

Our head office is in Nairobi, Kenya with satellite offices in 

New York, Kampala and Kuala Lumpur. 


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Contact Details 

STRATLINK AFRICA 

StratLink - Africa, Limited. 

Delta Riverside, Block 4, 

4th Floor, Riverside Drive, 

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nairobi@stratlinkglobal.com 

www.stratlinkglobal.com 

+254202572792 

August 2015 | MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA 

FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET UPDATE – AFRICA 

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