Paradigm

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For the exclusive use of Glen Hodgson, hodgson@conferenceboard.ca, The Conference Board of Canada. Canada’s New Trade and Technology <strong>Paradigm</strong> Finding the Right Policy Mix Table 2 (cont’d) Canada’s Most Important Global Markets (high country potential and high Canadian engagement) GDP ($ billions) Population (millions) GDP (% world) Population (% world) Tier 5 5,239 424 7 6 Chile 258 18 Indonesia 889 254 Norway 500 5 Peru 203 31 Saudi Arabia 746 31 Singapore 308 5 Spain 1,407 46 Taiwan 530 23 United Arab Emirates 399 9 Total all 5 tiers 60,303 4,251 80 80 Note: GDP and population represent the size of the economies listed. Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; International Monetary Fund; World Bank. In terms of growth potential, India may have surpassed China in the near term. Its challenge will be to maintain the economic policy reform momentum and ambitions under Prime Minister Modi, opening up its economy to international trade and investment while ensuring that its fiscal and monetary policies are sustainable. Canada’s trade statistics suggest limited engagement by Canadian firms in India, which can be a difficult market in which to do business. Nevertheless, India has growth opportunities in sectors in which Canada has proven expertise, including automobiles, machinery, transport, education, energy, communications, retail, food products, and financial services. 8 8 Goldfarb, Hottest Prospects for Canadian Companies in India. Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 10
© The Conference Board of Canada. All rights reserved. Please contact cboc.ca/ip with questions or concerns about the use of this material. The Conference Board of Canada Canada’s most important future markets include the U.S. and Europe. In sharp contrast to India’s promising growth potential, two of the BRIC members—Brazil and Russia—have recently “hit the wall.” Both countries were sharply affected by the end of the commodity supercycle and the drop in oil and other commodity prices. Both countries experienced deep recession in 2015 that is spilling into 2016, and neither has an economic program that will easily restore diversified and robust economic growth. Political forces in both countries are adding to the complexity of effective economic policy-making. The BRICs are thus fracturing as an entity and the clever acronym may have run its course. Which country is the next China? It is unlikely that China’s spectacular rise since the early 1980s can be replicated by any one country, but there are many strong-growth countries in south and east Asia—Taiwan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, to name a few—that will complement China’s continued growth and deepen the economic integration of the region. Canada grew its trade and investment with emerging Asia during the 2000s, mostly driven by the commodities supercycle. Moreover, while the absolute value of Canada’s trade with Asia has increased, Canada’s market share in the region has declined. 9 Other industrialized countries have done a better job than Canada of boosting their market share by selling more services to those markets. So far, Canada has engaged in limited trade and investment with India, other growth markets in Asia, and emerging markets in Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. However, links to emerging markets have been growing. Several standout Canadian companies interviewed by The Conference Board of Canada have successfully grown their businesses in emerging markets, in sectors from financial and IT services to food manufacturing. 10 In particular, Canada has grown its links with Mexico, which we expect to be the fastest-growing export market for Canada in the near future. (See Chart 2.) 9 Palladini, Raising Our Game Across the Pacific. 10 Audet, Selling to the World. Find Conference Board research at www.e-library.ca. 11
Page 1 and 2: Canada’s New Trade and Technology
Page 3 and 4: © The Conference Board of Canada.
Page 9: © The Conference Board of Canada.

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