Paradigm

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The Conference Board of Canada
Canada’s most
important future
markets include the
U.S. and Europe.
In sharp contrast to India’s promising growth potential, two of the
BRIC members—Brazil and Russia—have recently “hit the wall.” Both
countries were sharply affected by the end of the commodity supercycle
and the drop in oil and other commodity prices. Both countries
experienced deep recession in 2015 that is spilling into 2016, and neither
has an economic program that will easily restore diversified and robust
economic growth. Political forces in both countries are adding to the
complexity of effective economic policy-making. The BRICs are thus
fracturing as an entity and the clever acronym may have run its course.
Which country is the next China? It is unlikely that China’s spectacular
rise since the early 1980s can be replicated by any one country, but
there are many strong-growth countries in south and east Asia—Taiwan,
South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand, to name a few—that
will complement China’s continued growth and deepen the economic
integration of the region. Canada grew its trade and investment with
emerging Asia during the 2000s, mostly driven by the commodities
supercycle. Moreover, while the absolute value of Canada’s trade with
Asia has increased, Canada’s market share in the region has declined. 9
Other industrialized countries have done a better job than Canada of
boosting their market share by selling more services to those markets.
So far, Canada has engaged in limited trade and investment with India,
other growth markets in Asia, and emerging markets in Latin America,
Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. However, links to emerging markets
have been growing. Several standout Canadian companies interviewed
by The Conference Board of Canada have successfully grown their
businesses in emerging markets, in sectors from financial and IT
services to food manufacturing. 10 In particular, Canada has grown its
links with Mexico, which we expect to be the fastest-growing export
market for Canada in the near future. (See Chart 2.)
9 Palladini, Raising Our Game Across the Pacific.
10 Audet, Selling to the World.
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