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2016 Pregame.com College Football Betting Guide

College Football Vegas Betting Preview from Pregame.com's Ralph Michaels and Brad Powers.

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• QUICK REFERENCE TEAM WRITE-UPS • BRAD POWERS’ POWER RATINGS<br />

•ATS & OVER/UNDER RECORDS FROM THE L4Y’S • OVERALL & SEASON STATS THE L4Y<br />

•AWESOME TEAM ANGLES •PERCENTAGE OF STARTS BY EACH CLASS<br />

•A LOOK BACK AT LY’S NUMBERS AND A LOOK AHEAD TO THIS YEAR<br />

•PERCENTAGE OF RETURING STATS FOR EACH POSITION • PLUS EVEN MORE FEATURES<br />

PREPARED BY RALPH MICHAELS AND BRAD POWERS


PREGAME.COM is proud to present…………..<br />

Ralph was raised in the home of handicappers – Cleveland,<br />

Ohio. Starting in the industry as a key member of Phil Steele’s<br />

early team who expanded Northcoast Sports during the mid-<br />

90s. Ralph’s personal following grew fast, allowing him to strike<br />

out on his own as the founder of California Sports. Bookie<br />

crushing basketball results came quickly – including the rare<br />

feat of back-to-back <strong>College</strong> Basketball World Championships<br />

at the Sports Monitor. Results so good that California Sports<br />

became a household name; one of the few public handicappers<br />

in history syndicates bet big enough to move lines instantly<br />

upon his pick releases. Wiseguys in the late 90s would explain<br />

the reason for a big move by simply saying “best bet from Cal.”<br />

These many ac<strong>com</strong>plishments impressed Phil Steele enough to<br />

offer Ralph Michaels the top job. Over the next dozen years as<br />

General Manager of Phil Steele Publications and lead handicapper<br />

of Northcoast Sports, Ralph managed the creation of some<br />

of the most popular sports betting content ever, including Phil<br />

Steele’s <strong>College</strong> <strong>Football</strong> Preview Magazine and Northcoast’s<br />

Power Sweep Newsletter. Content displaying expertise so elite<br />

that Ralph was invited into college football’s most exclusive<br />

club: Heisman Trophy Voter. For nearly a decade Ralph’s opinion<br />

was counted equally side-by-side the most respected college<br />

football journalist in the country!<br />

Ralph Michaels has a math mind, steady searching for a value<br />

in the numbers – in addition to matchup edges, situational advantages,<br />

and hidden gems of information. Ralph finds more<br />

big bets in the college versions of football and basketball, but<br />

his handicapping approach also uncovers selective winners in<br />

the professional leagues. Small conferences are particularly<br />

profitable due to mispriced injuries and his profiling of exploitable<br />

coaching tendencies.<br />

Brad Powers started in the industry as a key<br />

contributor to Phil Steele Publications. For six<br />

years, Brad was the main writer for Phil Steele's<br />

daily blog while also being the lead college football<br />

writer for Northcoast Sports' Power Sweep<br />

newsletter.<br />

Brad contributed significantly to numerous preseason<br />

national award watch lists such as the<br />

Lombardi, Outland, Nagurski, Maxwell, Bednarik<br />

and Thorpe while also appearing as a guest on<br />

countless radio shows - including a weekly 1-<br />

hour featured segment on SiriusXM <strong>College</strong><br />

Sports Nation with Bill King for 5 years. Last<br />

season, Brad Powers placed third in Playbook’s<br />

prestigious Wise Guys contest.<br />

As far as his handicapping philosophy goes,<br />

Brad is in constant search for finding value in<br />

the numbers – in addition to matchup edges,<br />

situational advantages, and hidden gems of information.<br />

Brad finds more big bets in the college<br />

versions of football and basketball, but his<br />

handicapping approach also uncovers selective<br />

winners in the pros. Small conferences are particularly<br />

his specialty.<br />

Brad Power's educational background includes a<br />

cum laude graduate degree from Bowling Green<br />

State University with a B.S. in Journalism. He<br />

also graduated #1 in his high school class. He<br />

currently resides in Las Vegas.


2015 FINAL Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

ATLANTIC W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Clemson 14 1 93.3% 38.5 21.7 9 0 100.0%<br />

Florida State 10 3 76.9% 31.7 17.5 6 2 75.0%<br />

Louisville 8 5 61.5% 28.7 24.1 5 3 62.5%<br />

North Carolina State7 6 53.8% 33.2 25.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Syracuse 4 8 33.3% 27.3 31.0 2 6 25.0%<br />

Wake Forest 3 9 25.0% 17.4 24.6 1 7 12.5%<br />

Boston <strong>College</strong> 3 9 25.0% 17.2 15.3 0 8 0.0%<br />

COASTAL W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

North Carolina 11 3 78.6% 40.7 24.5 8 1 88.9%<br />

Pittsburgh 8 5 61.5% 28.2 26.1 6 2 75.0%<br />

Miami (FL) 8 5 61.5% 27.8 28.2 5 3 62.5%<br />

Duke 8 5 61.5% 31.5 25.4 4 4 50.0%<br />

Virginia Tech 7 6 53.8% 31.0 26.3 4 4 50.0%<br />

Virginia 4 8 33.3% 25.8 32.2 3 5 37.5%<br />

Georgia Tech 3 9 25.0% 29.3 25.8 1 7 12.5%<br />

BRAD POWER<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

2 Clemson 94.58<br />

5 Florida St 93.32<br />

17 Louisville 85.44<br />

20 North Carolina 84.79<br />

25 Miami (FL) 84.34<br />

32 Pittsburgh 81.81<br />

38 Virginia Tech 79.90<br />

46 NC State 77.16<br />

48 Georgia Tech 76.88<br />

54 Boston Coll 74.78<br />

56 Duke 73.90<br />

64 Virginia 71.94<br />

71 Wake Forest 70.63<br />

74 Syracuse 69.60


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 0-8 (#7 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-2, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #127 - #1<br />

SOS: #59 Adjusted Off – Def: #123 - #3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #62<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #76 (66.4)<br />

Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

The Eagles in ’16<br />

HC here: Steve Addazio – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.3*, DEF-7.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #78<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.7% 31.4% 21.6% 38.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Eagles are 1-11 ATS as an AF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a home game (s’/9/23/06) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 5.5 (-135) 3-9 und<br />

2014 5.5 (+235) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (+100) 7-5 OV<br />

2012 4.5 (n/a) 2-10 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.9 (17.2-15.2) 21.3 (276-254) 63-63 4.4-4.1 3<br />

’15 conf only -9.2 (9.1-18.4) -64.2 (230-294) 61-67 3.8-4.4 -5<br />

2014 All 4.9 (26.2-21.3) 59.5 (384-324) 68-63 5.7-5.1 1<br />

’14 conf only 1.1 (22.9-21.8) -2.8 (329-332) 63-66 5.2-5.1 0<br />

2013 All -1.2 (27.7-28.9) -60.2 (367-427) 61-72 6.0-5.9 3<br />

’13 conf only -1.2 (26.8-28.0) -54.1 (344-398) 61-73 5.7-5.5 1<br />

2012 All -9.8 (19.8-29.7) -106.6 (349-456) 68-82 5.1-5.6 -5<br />

’12 conf only -15.2 (19.2-34.5) -119.9 (346-466) 70-81 5.0-5.7 -8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 84% 74% 55% 57% 67% 72%<br />

It’s not often that you go 3-9 and still are +2 ppg and +21 ypg on the<br />

season but that was the case for the Eagles last year. BC finished #123<br />

in adjusted offense and #3 in adjusted defense. They only had 3<br />

returning starters back on offense so they were expected to be poor<br />

and despite only 6 returning starters on defense they finished #1 in<br />

the NCAA in ypg allowed!<br />

This year the offense has 8 back but you could see a new QB in<br />

Kentucky transfer Patrick Towles. They do get RB Jon Hilliman back<br />

from injury (missed most of last season) and only have to replace their<br />

No. 4 receiver and a pair of OL starters.<br />

The D does lose a pair of DL that <strong>com</strong>bined for 10 sacks and 26 tfl’s<br />

while also losing their top LB tackler and their top DB tackler. While<br />

they remain one of the best in the country (allowed ONLY 15 TD’s on<br />

the year despite a poor offense), they do lose their DC to Michigan.<br />

The Eagles start off their season in Ireland with a conference game vs<br />

Ga Tech. They figure to be favored in 4 of their next 6 games and may<br />

need to beat both UConn and WF in the last 2 to get back to a bowl.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Georgia Tech<br />

9/10 Sat at UMass<br />

9/17 Sat at Virginia Tech<br />

9/24 Sat Wagner<br />

10/1 Sat Buffalo<br />

10/7 Fri Clemson<br />

10/22 Sat Syracuse<br />

10/29 Sat at NC St<br />

11/5 Sat Louisville<br />

11/11 Fri at Florida St<br />

11/19 Sat Connecticut<br />

11/26 Sat at Wake Forest<br />

open<br />

Boston <strong>College</strong> is 10-2 to the<br />

UNDER off a loss the last 2 years<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 2-10 7-6 7-6 3-9<br />

Home 2-4 5-1 3-4 3-4<br />

Away 0-6 2-4 4-1 0-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-8 7-6 8-5 3-7<br />

HF 2-0 3-1 2-1 0-3<br />

HD 2-2 2-0 2-2 0-3<br />

AF 0-1 0-2 1-1 0-1<br />

AD 0-5 1-2 3-0 2-0<br />

vs Conf 2-6 6-2 5-3 2-5<br />

Non Conf 2-2 1-4 3-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-5 3-2 4-1 2-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 3-1 2-0 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 0-2 4-3 3-4 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-2 4-3 3-4 1-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 8-5 6-7 1-9<br />

as HF 0-1 2-2 1-2 0-3<br />

as HD 3-1 2-0 3-1 0-2<br />

as AF 1-0 2-0 0-2 0-1<br />

as AD 1-4 0-3 1-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-3 3-5 1-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-2 3-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Loss 4-4 4-1 1-4 1-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 3-1 1-1 0-4<br />

Off SU Win 0-2 4-3 5-2 0-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-2 4-3 5-2 0-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 14-1, 8-0 (#1 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #11 - #10<br />

SOS: #29 Adjusted Off – Def: #8 - #2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #9<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #3 (93.7)<br />

Clemson<br />

The Tigers in ’16<br />

HC here: Dabo Swinney – 9 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.7*, DEF-4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #10<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.8% 25.8% 44.8% 20.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Tigers are 12-1 ATS as an Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

AD after a home win (s’/9/20/03) <strong>2016</strong> 10.5 (-110)<br />

2015 8.5 (-180) 12-0 OV<br />

2014 8.5 (-105) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 10.5 (+165) 10-2 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 16.8 (38.5-21.7) 201.5 (515-313) 80-65 6.4-4.9 -2<br />

’15 conf only 17.8 (38.8-21.0) 266.9 (545-278) 82-61 6.6-4.6 -3<br />

2014 All 14.2 (30.8-16.7) 147.5 (408-261) 76-65 5.4-4.0 6<br />

’14 conf only 7.8 (25.5-17.8) 116.1 (381-265) 76-64 5.0-4.1 0<br />

2013 All 18.0 (40.2-22.2) 151.0 (508-357) 80-71 6.4-5.0 6<br />

’13 conf only 19.4 (40.4-21.0) 150.1 (517-367) 82-71 6.3-5.1 7<br />

2012 All 16.2 (41.0-24.8) 116.2 (513-396) 82-70 6.3-5.7 1<br />

’12 conf only 19.1 (46.5-27.4) 119.4 (543-423) 83-72 6.5-5.9 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 91% 73% 59% 44% 51% 39%<br />

Dabo Swinney has done a great job here. Last year, despite returning<br />

only 9 starters, they had one of their best seasons in school history<br />

before losing to Alabama in the National Championship game.<br />

The Heisman favorite <strong>com</strong>ing into the season is QB Deshaun Watson<br />

who passed for 4,104 yards and had 1,219 gross yards rushing. The<br />

Tigers also return their 1,500-yard RB, their leading receiver and they<br />

get back Mike Williams who led the team with 1,030 receiving yards<br />

in 2014 (was injured in last year’s opener). Last year Clemson returned<br />

only one OL starter and this year they have three back.<br />

The defense is a different story as 5 of their top 6 tacklers depart. The<br />

DL loses both DE’s who <strong>com</strong>bined for 24.5 of the DL’s 34 sacks. The<br />

LB’s also lose a pair of starters including the team’s top tackler while<br />

the secondary losses both safeties and a CB (all 3 were drafted). Keep<br />

in mind, they only returned 3 starters last year and still played well.<br />

The schedule is manageable as they could be at least a TD favorite in<br />

11 of their 12 games but do have to play at Florida State where they<br />

are 1-11 in their last 12 trips.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at Auburn<br />

9/10 Sat Troy<br />

9/17 Sat SC St<br />

9/22 Thu at Georgia Tech<br />

10/1 Sat Louisville<br />

10/7 Fri at Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

10/15 Sat NC St<br />

10/29 Sat at Florida St<br />

11/5 Sat Syracuse<br />

11/12 Sat Pittsburgh<br />

11/19 Sat at Wake Forest<br />

11/26 Sat South Carolina<br />

open<br />

Clemson is 10-0-1 ATS as a FAV<br />

after being an AD (s’/ 11/5/05)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 11-2 10-3 14-1<br />

Home 6-1 6-1 7-0 7-0<br />

Away 3-1 4-1 2-3 5-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-4 7-6 6-7 8-6<br />

HF 3-4 3-2 4-3 3-3<br />

HD 0-0 1-1 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 3-0 2-2 0-3 2-3<br />

AD 1-0 0-1 1-1 0-0<br />

vs Conf 7-1 4-4 3-5 4-4<br />

Non Conf 2-3 3-2 3-2 4-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 1-1 2-1 0-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 1-1 1-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 6-4 5-5 4-5 7-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-4 5-5 4-5 7-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 9-4 4-9 9-6<br />

as HF 3-3 3-2 2-5 3-4<br />

as HD 0-0 2-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 2-1 2-2 1-2 4-1<br />

as AD 1-0 1-0 1-1 0-0<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-3 2-6 6-3<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 4-1 2-3 3-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-0 2-1 0-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 2-0 1-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-4 6-4 1-8 8-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-4 6-4 1-8 8-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 4-4 (T #4-#5 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #36 - #61<br />

SOS: #72 Adjusted Off – Def: #65 - #64<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #51<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #55 (72.5)<br />

Duke<br />

The Blue Devils in ’16<br />

HC here: David Cutcliffe – 9 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.5*, DEF-6.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #33<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.7% 12.6% 38.1% 41.6%<br />

The Blue Devils are 6-1 to<br />

the OVER as an AF the L3Y<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 5.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7 (-150) 7-5 push<br />

2014 8.5 (+160) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (+120) 10-2 OV<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 6.2 (31.5-25.4) 44.7 (439-395) 79-74 5.5-5.4 -1<br />

’15 conf only -5.0 (27.5-32.5) -45.2 (401-446) 77-76 5.2-5.9 -2<br />

2014 All 10.6 (32.4-21.8) -1.4 (398-400) 74-76 5.4-5.3 6<br />

’14 conf only 1.9 (27.0-25.1) -72.6 (351-424) 72-75 4.9-5.7 3<br />

2013 All 6.1 (32.8-26.6) 8.1 (426-418) 73-74 5.9-5.7 1<br />

’13 conf only -0.4 (29.4-29.9) -73.4 (378-451) 70-77 5.4-5.9 0<br />

2012 All -4.5 (31.5-36.0) -60.0 (409-469) 76-70 5.4-6.7 2<br />

’12 conf only -11.0 (28.1-39.1) -140.4 (381-521) 75-74 5.1-7.1 10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 78% 50% 60% 52% 48% 76%<br />

David Cutcliffe has done a tremendous job in Durham guiding the Blue<br />

Devils to 4 straight bowls (27 wins in last 3 years) and last year they<br />

won their first bowl game since 1961.<br />

Duke’s biggest loss on offense may be that OC Scottie Montgomery<br />

took the East Carolina HC position. The Blue Devils do return QB<br />

Thomas Sirk who did rupture his Achilles this off-season but expects<br />

to play. Duke losses their “top” back who had 542 yards and 4.3 ypc<br />

but Jela Duncan (460 yds, 6.9) and Shaun Wilson (424 yds, 5.0) return.<br />

They return 2 of their top 3 receivers. All 5 OL started all 13 games and<br />

while 3 are back, 1 st team ACC Centers aren’t easy to replace.<br />

The defense also returns 6 starters but losses it’s superstar in ACC<br />

Defensive Player of the Year S Jeremy Cash. The team must also<br />

replace their top tackler as well as 3 DL but do return 5 of their top 7<br />

tacklers and 10 of their top 11 DB’s.<br />

While the Blue Devils figure to be favored in 4 of their first 6 games,<br />

they could be an underdog in at least 5 of their final 6 games and will<br />

struggle to match last year’s 8 wins.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat NC Central<br />

9/10 Sat Wake Forest<br />

9/17 Sat at Northwestern<br />

9/24 Sat at Notre Dame<br />

10/1 Sat Virginia<br />

10/8 Sat Army<br />

10/14 Fri at Louisville<br />

10/29 Sat at Georgia Tech<br />

11/5 Sat Virginia Tech<br />

11/10 Thu North Carolina<br />

11/19 Sat at Pittsburgh<br />

11/26 Sat at Miami (FL)<br />

open<br />

Duke is 15-2-1 ATS away after a<br />

road loss (since/ Sep 21, 2002)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 6-7 10-4 9-4 8-5<br />

Home 5-2 5-2 5-2 3-3<br />

Away 1-4 5-0 4-1 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 11-3 9-4 7-6<br />

HF 4-0 3-1 5-2 1-3<br />

HD 1-2 2-1 0-0 1-1<br />

AF 0-0 2-0 1-1 3-0<br />

AD 1-4 3-0 2-1 1-1<br />

vs Conf 3-5 7-2 5-3 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-2 4-1 4-1 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 2-1 2-1 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 2-0 2-0 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 8-2 6-3 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 8-2 6-3 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-3 6-8 4-8 6-7<br />

as HF 2-1 2-2 2-4 1-3<br />

as HD 2-0 2-1 0-0 0-2<br />

as AF 0-0 0-2 0-2 1-2<br />

as AD 3-2 1-2 1-2 2-0<br />

vs Conf 5-2 4-5 2-6 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-3 2-2 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 3-0 1-2 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 2-0 1-1 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 3-7 3-6 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 3-7 3-6 3-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (#2 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #51 - #19<br />

SOS: #48 Adjusted Off – Def: #22 - #22<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #3<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #12 (85.8)<br />

Florida St<br />

The Seminoles in ’16<br />

HC here: Jimbo Fisher – 7 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-10.4*, DEF-6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #2<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

18.6% 28.8% 31.6% 21.1%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Seminoles are 0-7 ATS as a FAV Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a dog (s’/ 1/2/97) <strong>2016</strong> 9.5 (+100)<br />

2015 9.5 (-120) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 11 (-400) 12-0 OV<br />

2013 10.5 (+110) 12-0 OV<br />

2012 10 (n/a) 10-2 push<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 14.2 (31.7-17.5) 87.1 (424-337) 65-72 6.5-4.7 0<br />

’15 conf only 9.0 (27.0-18.0) 58.3 (411-353) 64-70 6.5-5.0 2<br />

2014 All 8.1 (33.7-25.6) 44.4 (441-397) 69-72 6.4-5.5 -6<br />

’14 conf only 12.6 (35.9-23.3) 63.5 (450-387) 69-71 6.5-5.5 -2<br />

2013 All 39.5 (51.6-12.1) 237.6 (519-281) 68-69 7.7-4.1 17<br />

’13 conf only 39.0 (50.7-11.7) 241.7 (519-277) 68-69 7.6-4.0 14<br />

2012 All 24.6 (39.3-14.7) 217.0 (471-254) 67-66 7.0-3.9 -8<br />

’12 conf only 22.2 (37.7-15.4) 207.3 (479-272) 69-68 7.0-4.0 -9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

47% 94% 99% 100% 74% 35% 45%<br />

You know you’re program is in great shape when a “rebuilding” season<br />

still equates to 10 wins and a major bowl appearance. This year’s team<br />

looks ready to be right back in the mix for a CFB Playoff berth.<br />

Florida State is the ONLY team to return all 11 offensive starters but<br />

they actually only return 45% of their passing yards with the departure<br />

of Everett Golson. RB Dalvin Cook was one of only six players<br />

nationally that averaged 140 ypg or more rushing and he was the only<br />

one to average over 6.9 ypc (7.4). The starting receivers are obviously<br />

all back and the OL will benefit from injuries last season as 9 players<br />

made starts and everyone is back giving them incredible depth.<br />

The DL returns 4 of the top 6 and while they lose their top 2 LB’s they<br />

do get back a part-time 2014 starter who missed last year. The biggest<br />

shoes to fill are those of CB Jalen Ramsey, the #5 overall draft pick and<br />

they also lose a safety who was their #3 tackler.<br />

The schedule is not easy as they play OIe Miss, USF and Florida in nonconference<br />

action. They also have to travel to Miami and Louisville in<br />

ACC play but get the all-important game vs Clemson at home.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/5 Mon (N) Ole Miss<br />

9/10 Sat Char Southern<br />

9/17 Sat at Louisville<br />

9/24 Sat at USF<br />

10/1 Sat North Carolina<br />

10/8 Sat at Miami (FL)<br />

10/15 Sat Wake Forest<br />

10/29 Sat Clemson<br />

11/5 Sat at NC St<br />

11/11 Fri Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

11/19 Sat at Syracuse<br />

11/26 Sat Florida<br />

open<br />

Florida St is 21-6 ATS after a<br />

loss as a dog (s’/10/19/85)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 12-2 14-0 13-1 10-3<br />

Home 6-1 7-0 7-0 7-0<br />

Away 4-1 5-0 4-0 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-9 11-2 3-11 8-5<br />

HF 4-3 6-0 1-6 5-2<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-5 4-1 2-2 2-2<br />

AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-6 7-1 3-6 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-3 4-1 0-5 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 0-0 0-0 2-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-8 10-2 3-10 5-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-8 10-2 3-10 5-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-8 10-4 6-7 6-7<br />

as HF 3-2 6-1 0-6 5-2<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-4 4-1 3-1 0-4<br />

as AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

vs Conf 3-6 7-2 4-5 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-2 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 0-0 0-0 1-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-7 9-4 5-7 4-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-7 9-4 5-7 4-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 1-7 (#7 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #80 - #42<br />

SOS: #14 Adjusted Off – Def: #75 - #58<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #44<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #58 (71.0)<br />

Georgia Tech<br />

The Yellow Jackets in ’16<br />

HC here: Paul Johnson – 9 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.9*, DEF-4.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #58<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

11.7% 17.8% 28.0% 42.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Yellow Jackets are 2-12 ATS Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a loss as a fav (s’/ 10/2/10) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (ev)<br />

2015 7.5 (-160) 3-9 und<br />

2014 6.5 (-130) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (-120) 7-5 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 3.5 (29.2-25.8) 10.0 (378-368) 65-63 5.9-5.8 -7<br />

’15 conf only -7.8 (23.5-31.2) -29.7 (350-380) 65-63 5.4-6.0 -8<br />

2014 All 12.1 (37.9-25.7) 65.2 (477-411) 71-65 6.7-6.3 11<br />

’14 conf only 12.1 (37.0-24.9) 71.6 (470-398) 70-64 6.7-6.2 8<br />

2013 All 12.2 (35.1-22.8) 69.5 (430-360) 70-65 6.1-5.5 -4<br />

’13 conf only 7.9 (31.1-23.2) 66.1 (420-354) 72-62 5.9-5.7 -7<br />

2012 All 5.3 (33.6-28.3) 67.1 (441-374) 72-66 6.2-5.7 4<br />

’12 conf only 9.0 (37.2-28.2) 66.4 (454-388) 71-67 6.4-5.8 8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

98% 81% 84% 50% 67% 66% 33%<br />

Coming off an Orange Bowl winning season and a 2-0 start to last year,<br />

the Yellow Jackets were actually favored at Notre Dame. However,<br />

they would shockingly finish the season 1-9 SU/ATS in their final 10<br />

games and missed out on a bowl for the first time since 1996.<br />

QB Justin Thomas is now a senior and his 13-8 ratio was due to having<br />

to pass when trailing for most of the season. The top 2 returning backs<br />

were both freshman last season so obviously the exceptions are high<br />

while the top two returning receivers had 89 targets of the team’s 192<br />

attempts having to only replace 16 receptions. A 2-year starting C is<br />

one of the 2 starters back on the OL but they do lose 80 career starts.<br />

Of the 6 starters gone on defense, two <strong>com</strong>e from the front 7 but four<br />

<strong>com</strong>e from the secondary. Overall, they lose their best defender in DT<br />

Adam Gotsis (2 nd round NFL draft pick) and also lose 3 of their top 4<br />

tacklers. They must get better pressure (only 14 sacks last season).<br />

The Yellow Jackets could match last year’s 3 wins by game 3 as they<br />

will be favored in all 3. They figure to be favored in at least 3 more<br />

games as they look to return to bowl action.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

9/10 Sat Mercer<br />

9/17 Sat Vanderbilt<br />

9/22 Thu Clemson<br />

10/1 Sat Miami (FL)<br />

10/8 Sat at Pittsburgh<br />

10/15 Sat Ga Southern<br />

10/29 Sat Duke<br />

11/5 Sat at North Carolina<br />

11/12 Sat at Virginia Tech<br />

11/19 Sat Virginia<br />

11/26 Sat at Georgia<br />

open<br />

GT is 12-1 ATS as an AD after<br />

being a dog (s’/ 11/08/97)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-7 7-6 11-3 3-9<br />

Home 4-3 5-2 5-1 3-4<br />

Away 2-3 2-3 5-1 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-5 5-6 10-4 3-9<br />

HF 4-3 4-1 2-3 2-3<br />

HD 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-1<br />

AF 1-0 1-0 2-0 0-4<br />

AD 2-2 0-3 3-1 0-1<br />

vs Conf 7-2 3-3 7-2 1-7<br />

Non Conf 2-3 2-3 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 5-2 2-3 2-1 1-7<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 2-1 0-0 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 2-3 8-2 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 2-3 8-2 1-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 8-5 8-6 6-6<br />

as HF 4-2 3-3 2-3 4-1<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 0-1 0-2<br />

as AF 0-0 1-1 2-0 1-3<br />

as AD 2-2 3-0 2-2 1-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 4-4 4-5 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 4-1 4-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 4-1 3-0 4-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 3-0 0-0 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 3-4 4-6 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 3-4 4-6 1-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 5-3 (#3 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-4<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #53 - #18<br />

SOS: #43 Adjusted Off – Def: #61 - #14<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #32<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #44 (75.6)<br />

Louisville<br />

The Cardinals in ’16<br />

HC here: Bobby Petrino – 3 rd / 7 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.2*, DEF-7.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #37<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

16.3% 18.7% 31.4% 33.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Cardinals are 0-10 ATS as a FAV Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a dog (s’/ 11/24/01) <strong>2016</strong> 9 (+110)<br />

2015 7.5 (+115) 7-5 und<br />

2014 7.5 (-230) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 10.5 (-155) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 4.6 (28.7-24.1) 83.3 (416-333) 69-69 6.0-4.8 -1<br />

’15 conf only 1.0 (26.0-25.0) 53.0 (378-325) 67-67 5.6-4.8 -2<br />

2014 All 9.4 (31.2-21.8) 86.2 (395-309) 72-65 5.5-4.8 4<br />

’14 conf only 7.8 (27.0-19.2) 71.9 (367-295) 71-65 5.2-4.5 5<br />

2013 All 23.0 (35.2-12.2) 208.5 (461-252) 69-60 6.7-4.2 17<br />

’13 conf only 13.4 (28.6-15.2) 147.3 (424-277) 70-62 6.1-4.5 11<br />

2012 All 7.4 (31.2-23.8) 78.2 (419-341) 71-64 5.9-5.3 11<br />

’12 conf only 3.4 (31.0-27.6) 82.7 (445-362) 71-67 6.2-5.4 7<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 99% 100% 65% 62% 59% 85%<br />

After starting off 0-3 for the first time since 1984, the Cardinals won 8<br />

of their last 10 games and with 17 returning starters could be a dark<br />

horse National Title contender in <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

Sophomore QB Lamar Jackson (1,840 passing, 1,143 gross rushing) is<br />

<strong>com</strong>ing off a spectacular bowl performance where he threw for 227<br />

and ran for 226 . The main skill players at RB/WR are all back with the<br />

only starting losses <strong>com</strong>ing from the OL. The Cardinals started TEN<br />

players at OL with 5 back that made 40 starts last season and 5 gone<br />

that <strong>com</strong>bined for 23 starts.<br />

Last season Louisville returned only 4 defensive starters and still<br />

finished #14 in adjusted defense. This year 8 are back but they do lose<br />

both DE’s including the 12 th pick in the draft, Sheldon Rankins. The only<br />

other starter gone was their #2 LB and they move in S Josh Harvey-<br />

Clemons to LB (#3 tackler last year).<br />

We’ll know how good the Cardinals are early as they host Florida State<br />

in week #3 and travel to Clemson in week #5. Besides a late road trip<br />

to Houston, they will be favored in their other 9 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Charlotte<br />

9/9 Fri at Syracuse<br />

9/17 Sat Florida St<br />

9/24 Sat at Marshall<br />

10/1 Sat at Clemson<br />

10/14 Fri Duke<br />

10/22 Sat NC St<br />

10/29 Sat at Virginia<br />

11/5 Sat at Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

11/12 Sat Wake Forest<br />

11/17 Thu at Houston<br />

11/26 Sat Kentucky<br />

open<br />

Louisville is 12-0 ATS as an AF<br />

after a loss (since/ Sep 7, 2002)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 12-1 9-4 8-5<br />

Home 6-1 6-1 5-1 4-2<br />

Away 4-1 5-0 4-2 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 6-7 7-6 7-6<br />

HF 3-4 2-5 2-3 2-3<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-1 1-0<br />

AF 1-3 3-2 3-1 1-1<br />

AD 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 3-4 2-5 4-4 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-3 4-2 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 1-0 2-1 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-6 4-7 4-5 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-6 4-7 4-5 3-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 3-10 5-8 6-6<br />

as HF 4-2 2-5 2-3 3-2<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-1<br />

as AF 2-2 1-4 1-3 1-1<br />

as AD 0-1 0-0 1-1 2-1<br />

vs Conf 4-3 1-6 2-6 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 3-2 2-4 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-2 0-1 1-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 3-8 4-5 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 3-8 4-5 4-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 5-3 (#3 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #67 - #70<br />

SOS: #34 Adjusted Off – Def: #47 - #52<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #26<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #45 (75.4)<br />

Miami<br />

The Hurricanes in ’16<br />

HC here: Mark Richt – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.8*, DEF-5.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #21<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

1.8% 35.9% 28.5% 33.8%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Hurricanes are 2-19 ATS as a fav Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

off a loss as a fav (s’/11/8/03) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-125)<br />

2015 5.5 (-215) 8-6 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-125) 6-6 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+150) 9-3 und<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -0.4 (27.8-28.2) -8.4 (396-405) 67-70 5.9-5.8 11<br />

’15 conf only -7.5 (24.9-32.4) -66.3 (372-438) 66-72 5.6-6.1 4<br />

2014 All 4.9 (29.2-24.3) 101.5 (430-329) 64-69 6.7-4.8 -1<br />

’14 conf only 0.1 (23.9-23.8) 75.3 (402-326) 64-67 6.2-4.9 1<br />

2013 All 7.1 (33.8-26.8) -0.5 (426-426) 63-74 6.8-5.8 5<br />

’13 conf only -1.5 (31.2-32.8) -48.1 (434-482) 63-78 6.9-6.2 -1<br />

2012 All 0.9 (31.4-30.5) -46.3 (440-486) 68-80 6.5-6.1 7<br />

’12 conf only 3.6 (35.4-31.8) -34.8 (470-505) 72-82 6.5-6.2 7<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 99% 60% 100% 67% 76% 46%<br />

It’s been 13 years since Miami had a double-digit win season and<br />

ironically their new head coach Mark Richt averaged nearly 10 wins<br />

per year in his 15-year tenure at Georgia but was still let go.<br />

Richt inherits an offense led by 3,000-yard passer in Brad Kaaya who<br />

could be a first-round pick in next year’s draft along with a 1,000-yard<br />

rusher and they have all 5 of their OL starters back (85 career starts).<br />

The only losses are a pair of receivers so this could be the most potent<br />

offense here in more than a decade.<br />

The defense has underperformed greatly as of late and while they lose<br />

5 starters, they are more experienced than you think. They return 7 of<br />

the top 9 DL, wel<strong>com</strong>e back their top 2 tacklers at LB and also return<br />

3 of their top 4 tacklers from the secondary despite returning only 16<br />

starts from 2015 among all DB’s.<br />

The schedule will see the Hurricanes heavily favored in each of their<br />

first 3 games. However, a brutal month of October could see them an<br />

underdog in 3 games. They do close the season with 4 games in which<br />

they should be favored in.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Florida A&M<br />

9/10 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

9/17 Sat at Appalachian St<br />

10/1 Sat at Georgia Tech<br />

10/8 Sat Florida St<br />

10/15 Sat North Carolina<br />

10/20 Thu at Virginia Tech<br />

10/29 Sat at Notre Dame<br />

11/5 Sat Pittsburgh<br />

11/12 Sat at Virginia<br />

11/19 Sat at NC St<br />

11/26 Sat Duke<br />

open<br />

Miami is 17-2 ATS as a dog after<br />

a loss (since/ Oct 24, 1998)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-5 9-4 6-7 8-5<br />

Home 4-2 6-1 5-2 5-1<br />

Away 3-2 3-2 1-4 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-3 5-8 5-8 6-6<br />

HF 2-1 2-4 4-2 1-2<br />

HD 3-0 1-0 0-1 1-1<br />

AF 2-0 2-2 1-1 1-1<br />

AD 2-1 0-1 0-3 3-1<br />

vs Conf 8-0 2-6 3-5 5-3<br />

Non Conf 1-3 3-2 2-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 4-1 0-3 2-4 4-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 0-3 2-3 3-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 5-4 3-3 2-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 5-4 3-3 2-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-6 4-9 7-5<br />

as HF 1-1 4-2 3-3 1-2<br />

as HD 0-3 0-1 0-1 2-0<br />

as AF 2-0 3-1 0-2 1-1<br />

as AD 3-0 0-1 1-2 3-1<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-3 1-7 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 2-3 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-4 3-0 2-4 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 3-0 2-3 3-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-1 4-5 2-4 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-1 4-5 2-4 4-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 11-3, 8-0 (#1 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-10*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #18 - #97<br />

SOS: #58 Adjusted Off – Def: #7 - #50<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #28<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #17 (84.5)<br />

North Carolina<br />

The Tar Heels in ’16<br />

HC here: Larry Fedora – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.9, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #35<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.6% 20.3% 39.5% 36.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Tar Heels face 7 teams with Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

new Head Coaches this year <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-125)<br />

2015 8 (-115) 11-1 OV<br />

2014 8.5 (+135) 6-6 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+170) 6-6 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 16.2 (40.7-24.5) 51.0 (487-436) 67-79 7.3-5.5 7<br />

’15 conf only 15.8 (41.9-26.1) 45.6 (488-442) 66-81 7.3-5.5 8<br />

2014 All -5.8 (33.2-39.0) -68.1 (430-498) 77-76 5.6-6.5 0<br />

’14 conf only -6.4 (30.0-36.4) -59.4 (414-474) 75-75 5.6-6.3 -3<br />

2013 All 8.2 (32.7-24.5) 22.5 (426-403) 73-76 5.9-5.3 2<br />

’13 conf only 5.8 (28.1-22.4) 11.1 (400-389) 70-76 5.7-5.1 1<br />

2012 All 14.9 (40.6-25.7) 96.0 (486-390) 75-75 6.5-5.2 7<br />

’12 conf only 4.4 (37.2-32.9) 30.9 (484-453) 77-79 6.3-5.8 2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

15% 67% 73% 80% 75% 31% 73%<br />

After 3 relatively disappointing seasons and a frustrating loss to South<br />

Carolina in last year’s opener, the Larry Fedora era wasn’t looking<br />

great (just 21-18). However, the Tar Heels proceeded to win 11 games<br />

in a row and nearly upset Clemson in the ACC Championship game.<br />

Only two QB’s threw for over 3,000 yards and rushed for over 700<br />

yards last season and the Tar Heels must replace Marquise Williams<br />

(Clemson’s DeShaun Watson was the other). It’ll certainly help the<br />

new QB to have RB Ejijah Hood (1,463 rush yards, 6.7) in the backfield<br />

especially with 4 OL starters back. They also return their top receivers<br />

in Mack Hollins (24.8 ypc!) and Ryan Switzer (7 punt return TD’s).<br />

The biggest concern on defense is at LB where the Tar Heels lost their<br />

top 2 tacklers (176 tackles gone, 89 returning) and have little depth.<br />

They do return their top 3 tacklers in the secondary and can only<br />

improve upon their rush defense (gave up 424 rush ypg in final 3).<br />

They could be favored in as many as 9 games this year with the<br />

exceptions <strong>com</strong>ing against Georgia in the opener (in Atlanta) and then<br />

road trips to Florida State and Miami, Fl in conference play.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Georgia<br />

9/10 Sat at Illinois<br />

9/17 Sat James Madison<br />

9/24 Sat Pittsburgh<br />

10/1 Sat at Florida St<br />

10/8 Sat Virginia Tech<br />

10/15 Sat at Miami (FL)<br />

10/22 Sat at Virginia<br />

11/5 Sat Georgia Tech<br />

11/10 Thu at Duke<br />

11/19 Sat Citadel<br />

11/25 Fri NC St<br />

open<br />

North Carolina is 5-1 to the<br />

UNDER as an AF the last 4 years<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-4 7-6 6-7 11-3<br />

Home 6-1 4-3 4-2 7-0<br />

Away 2-3 2-3 2-4 4-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-6 7-5 5-8 8-6<br />

HF 5-2 3-2 2-3 5-2<br />

HD 0-0 1-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AF 1-3 1-0 0-0 2-1<br />

AD 0-1 0-3 3-3 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 5-3 4-4 6-3<br />

Non Conf 3-1 2-2 1-4 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 3-2 3-3 1-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 1-1 2-3 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-5 4-2 2-4 7-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-5 4-2 2-4 7-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-3 4-9 5-7 8-6<br />

as HF 5-1 3-3 2-2 4-3<br />

as HD 0-0 0-1 0-1 0-0<br />

as AF 0-2 0-1 0-0 1-2<br />

as AD 1-0 0-3 3-3 1-0<br />

vs Conf 4-2 2-6 3-5 6-3<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-3 2-2 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 1-5 4-2 2-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-3 3-2 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-1 3-3 1-5 6-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-1 3-3 1-5 6-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 3-5 (#4 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #57 - #29<br />

SOS: #62 Adjusted Off – Def: #23 - #77<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #31<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #68 (69.6)<br />

NC State<br />

The Wolfpack in ’16<br />

HC here: Dave Doeren – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.5, DEF-7.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #49<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.8% 39.2% 18.5% 31.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Wolfpack are 1-10 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a road win (s’/ 10/16/82) <strong>2016</strong> 6 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-105) 7-5 und<br />

2014 5.5 (-140) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 6.5 (-185) 3-9 und<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 7.4 (33.2-25.8) 62.2 (413-351) 73-64 5.6-5.5 9<br />

’15 conf only -2.2 (27.4-29.6) -17.3 (379-396) 71-70 5.4-5.7 6<br />

2014 All 3.2 (30.2-27.0) 35.5 (409-373) 68-71 6.0-5.2 5<br />

’14 conf only -6.6 (24.6-31.2) -38.5 (352-391) 66-72 5.3-5.4 2<br />

2013 All -7.3 (22.8-30.2) 4.1 (404-399) 79-68 5.1-5.9 0<br />

’13 conf only -17.0 (16.9-33.9) -65.0 (367-432) 78-69 4.7-6.3 -3<br />

2012 All 2.5 (28.1-25.6) 16.5 (421-405) 80-73 5.3-5.5 -9<br />

’12 conf only -0.6 (28.4-29.0) -30.7 (436-467) 82-80 5.3-5.9 -7<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

3% 78% 88% 45% 79% 89% 68%<br />

While head coach Dave Doeren has done a solid job here in his 3 years,<br />

it is worth noting that he sports a 12-2 record in non-conference action<br />

but just a 6-18 record in ACC play.<br />

The Wolf Pack must replace a 2-year starting QB and their OC but they<br />

will do so with a “package deal”. Ryan Finely transferred in from Boise<br />

State after the former Broncos’ OC took the same position here. An<br />

injury cost RB Matthew Dayes (865 rush, 6.5) the final 5 games of last<br />

year and he should easily top 1,000 this year if healthy. The receiving<br />

unit did take a hit when their #2 receiver was lost in the summer. The<br />

OL will be down a notch as they are without 3 starters including a 3-<br />

year starter at LT and a 3-year starting Center (lose 100 career starts).<br />

Only 3 starters depart for the Wolfpack on defense but their losses will<br />

be felt in the team’s top DL (10.5 sacks) and top CB. They do return 4<br />

LB’s that were among the top 11 tacklers on the team.<br />

The early schedule is again very easy as they will be a favorite in each<br />

of their first 4 games. However, starting with hosting Notre Dame in<br />

game #5, NC State could be an underdog in 6 of their last 8 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu William & Mary<br />

9/10 Sat at East Carolina<br />

9/17 Sat Old Dominion<br />

10/1 Sat Wake Forest<br />

10/8 Sat Notre Dame<br />

10/15 Sat at Clemson<br />

10/22 Sat at Louisville<br />

10/29 Sat Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

11/5 Sat Florida St<br />

11/12 Sat at Syracuse<br />

11/19 Sat Miami (FL)<br />

11/25 Fri at North Carolina<br />

open<br />

NC St is 11-1 ATS as a dog after<br />

a loss as an AF (s’/ 10/1/88)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 3-9 8-5 7-6<br />

Home 5-1 3-5 4-3 3-3<br />

Away 2-3 0-4 3-2 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-8 3-8 8-5 6-7<br />

HF 3-2 2-2 2-3 2-2<br />

HD 1-0 1-3 1-1 0-2<br />

AF 0-2 0-1 1-0 4-0<br />

AD 1-2 0-2 3-1 0-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 1-6 5-3 2-6<br />

Non Conf 1-4 2-2 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 1-6 3-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 1-5 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-5 1-2 5-2 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-5 1-2 5-2 3-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 6-6 6-7 7-6<br />

as HF 0-4 1-3 2-3 2-2<br />

as HD 0-1 2-2 2-0 2-0<br />

as AF 0-2 0-1 1-0 2-2<br />

as AD 3-0 3-0 0-4 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 3-5 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 2-2 3-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-5 6-2 1-4 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-3 5-2 1-4 3-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 0-3 5-2 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 0-3 5-2 3-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 6-2 (#2 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #72 - #37<br />

SOS: #30 Adjusted Off – Def: #37 - #56<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #47<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #50 (74.0)<br />

Pittsburgh<br />

The Panthers in ’16<br />

HC here: Pat Narduzzi – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.1*, DEF-7.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #30<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

14.7% 15.0% 42.3% 28.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Panthers are 2-12-1 ATS as a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

fav after a HF loss (s’/11/13/82) <strong>2016</strong> 7 (+100)<br />

2015 6 (-125) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (+110) 6-6 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-110) 6-6 OV<br />

2012 7 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 2.2 (28.2-26.1) 14.4 (378-363) 66-64 5.8-5.7 0<br />

’15 conf only 4.2 (27.0-22.8) 38.5 (391-352) 70-61 5.6-5.8 5<br />

2014 All 5.5 (31.8-26.3) 76.2 (435-359) 71-64 6.2-5.6 -5<br />

’14 conf only 1.1 (30.8-29.6) 45.4 (438-393) 69-67 6.4-5.9 -4<br />

2013 All -0.8 (26.3-27.2) -5.4 (362-368) 66-67 5.5-5.5 -1<br />

’13 conf only -6.4 (22.4-28.8) -50.2 (329-379) 67-66 4.9-5.7 -2<br />

2012 All 5.5 (26.6-21.1) 59.5 (390-331) 68-67 5.7-4.9 12<br />

’12 conf only 4.7 (25.1-20.4) 69.9 (387-317) 70-61 5.5-5.2 5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

93% 74% 47% 80% 76% 72% 80%<br />

Pat Narduzzi in his first season as head coach got Pitt to 8 wins (first<br />

time since 2010) and their 5 losses came to teams that finished a<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined 52-15. This year’s team looks even stronger.<br />

Pitt returned 8 starters on offense last year and finished a respectable<br />

#37 in adjusted offense. But, let’s remember that their returning QB<br />

was benched in game #2 and RB James Conner (1765, 5.9 in ’14) was<br />

injured in the opener. This year they return QB Nathan Peterman plus<br />

with Conner back have two 1,000 yard rushers (Qadree Ollison had<br />

1,121 yards last year). They do lose their star WR Tyler Boyd to the NFL<br />

and their OC to Georgia. They very well may run the ball more<br />

especially behind their four returning OL (99 career starts).<br />

Each unit on defense loss a starter but with 8 back and being in the<br />

second season of HC’s Pat Narduzzi’s defensive schemes they’ll be<br />

expected to improve. It was huge boost for Ejaun Price (11.5 sacks,<br />

19.5 tfl’s) to be granted a 6 th year as he is a difference maker.<br />

The non-conference schedule is tough with games against Penn St and<br />

Oklahoma St but Pitt figures to be favored in as many as 8 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Villanova<br />

9/10 Sat Penn St<br />

9/17 Sat at Oklahoma St<br />

9/24 Sat at North Carolina<br />

10/1 Sat Marshall<br />

10/8 Sat Georgia Tech<br />

10/15 Sat at Virginia<br />

10/27 Thu Virginia Tech<br />

11/5 Sat at Miami (FL)<br />

11/12 Sat at Clemson<br />

11/19 Sat Duke<br />

11/26 Sat Syracuse<br />

open<br />

PITT is 10-1-1 ATS as an AD<br />

after an away game (s’/ 10/26/96)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 6-7 7-6 6-7 8-5<br />

Home 4-2 4-3 3-4 3-3<br />

Away 2-4 2-3 3-2 5-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-5 5-7 5-7 6-7<br />

HF 3-1 2-1 2-4 1-3<br />

HD 1-1 1-2 1-0 0-2<br />

AF 2-1 0-2 1-1 2-1<br />

AD 1-1 0-1 1-1 3-1<br />

vs Conf 3-3 2-5 4-3 4-4<br />

Non Conf 4-2 3-2 1-4 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 4-1 2-3 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 3-1 0-1 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-1 1-5 2-4 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-1 1-5 2-4 4-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 6-7 8-5 6-7<br />

as HF 1-1 1-2 3-3 2-2<br />

as HD 2-0 2-1 0-1 1-1<br />

as AF 0-3 1-1 2-0 0-3<br />

as AD 1-2 0-2 2-1 3-1<br />

vs Conf 2-5 4-4 5-3 2-6<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-3 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 2-4 2-4 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 2-2 1-1 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-2 3-3 5-1 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-2 3-3 5-1 3-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 4-8, 2-6 (#5 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #120 - #100<br />

SOS: #55 Adjusted Off – Def: #64 - #84<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #58<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #89 (62.4)<br />

Syracuse<br />

The Orange in ’16<br />

HC here: Dino Babers – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.1*, DEF-7.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #65<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

17.4% 26.9% 31.8% 23.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Orange are 10-1 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

allowing 35 or more points <strong>2016</strong> 4 (-110)<br />

2015 4.5 (-125) 4-8 und<br />

2014 5.5 (-140) 3-9 und<br />

2013 4.5 (-120) 6-6 OV<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -3.8 (27.2-31.0) -118.6 (320-439) 63-71 5.1-6.2 5<br />

’15 conf only -8.0 (25.2-33.2) -151.5 (313-464) 61-74 5.1-6.3 4<br />

2014 All -7.2 (17.1-24.3) -19.3 (330-349) 67-70 4.9-5.0 -1<br />

’14 conf only -11.9 (12.9-24.8) -66.9 (270-337) 64-70 4.2-4.8 -5<br />

2013 All -2.7 (22.7-25.4) 9.7 (377-367) 74-69 5.1-5.3 2<br />

’13 conf only -12.6 (15.5-28.1) -32.9 (351-384) 72-70 4.9-5.5 0<br />

2012 All 5.2 (30.0-24.8) 97.5 (476-378) 79-66 6.0-5.7 -2<br />

’12 conf only 7.1 (30.4-23.3) 74.4 (460-386) 77-67 6.0-5.8 5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 93% 88% 37% 33% 98% 93%<br />

After back-to-back losing seasons, the Orange parted ways with Scott<br />

Shafer and made a great hire bringing in Dino Babers from Bowling<br />

Green who led the Falcons to a MAC title last year.<br />

How much will Syracuse’s offense change under Babers? Last year the<br />

Orange threw 306 passes and Babers previous team, Bowling Green,<br />

COMPLETED 398 passes! All 3 QB’s who took snaps are back but the<br />

job is still open as they look for the best fit. The top 3 RB’s are also<br />

returning and will have to adjust to pass blocking and catching the ball<br />

more. The top 3 receivers return and they will see their numbers skyrocket<br />

this year. The only losses are on the OL where three 3-year<br />

starters must be replaced (lose 115 career starts, only 34 return).<br />

The defense much like the offense returns 8 starters with the only<br />

losses <strong>com</strong>ing on the DL. 5 of the top 6 LB’s are back and they return<br />

9 of the top 10 DB’s as 8 of them were frosh or sophomores last year.<br />

The schedule is difficult as they play 10 bowl teams from last year and<br />

the Orange could find themselves an underdog in as many as 11 games<br />

(only the opener vs FCS Colgate will be their clear favorite role).<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri Colgate<br />

9/9 Fri Louisville<br />

9/17 Sat USF<br />

9/24 Sat at Connecticut<br />

10/1 Sat (N) Notre Dame<br />

10/8 Sat at Wake Forest<br />

10/15 Sat Virginia Tech<br />

10/22 Sat at Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

11/5 Sat at Clemson<br />

11/12 Sat NC St<br />

11/19 Sat Florida St<br />

11/26 Sat at Pittsburgh<br />

open<br />

Syracuse is 12-1 ATS as an AF<br />

after a road game (s’/ 10/22/98)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 7-6 3-9 4-8<br />

Home 4-1 4-2 1-5 4-3<br />

Away 3-3 2-3 2-3 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-5 8-5 4-8 8-4<br />

HF 1-1 3-0 0-3 2-1<br />

HD 1-0 1-1 1-2 4-0<br />

AF 1-0 0-0 2-0 0-0<br />

AD 2-2 2-3 1-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-2 4-4 3-5 6-2<br />

Non Conf 3-3 4-1 1-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 4-2 2-6 5-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 3-1 2-5 4-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 3-3 2-1 2-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 3-3 2-1 2-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-4 6-7 2-9 10-2<br />

as HF 1-1 2-1 1-1 3-0<br />

as HD 1-0 1-1 1-2 2-2<br />

as AF 1-0 0-0 0-2 0-0<br />

as AD 3-1 3-2 0-3 4-0<br />

vs Conf 5-2 3-5 1-7 6-2<br />

vs Non Conf 3-2 3-2 1-2 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 3-3 1-7 6-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 1-3 1-6 5-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 3-3 0-2 3-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 3-3 0-2 3-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 4-8, 3-5 (#6 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #75 - #80<br />

SOS: #23 Adjusted Off – Def: #56 - #67<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #50<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #65 (70.0)<br />

Virginia<br />

The Cavaliers in ’16<br />

HC here: Bronco Mendenhall – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.1*, DEF-5.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #62<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.8% 13.6% 35.2% 47.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Cavs are 0-7 ATS as a dog Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being an AF (s’/11/13/03) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-130)<br />

2015 4.5 (+105) 4-8 und<br />

2014 3.5 (-105) 5-7 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (-120) 2-10 und<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 4-8 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -6.4 (25.8-32.2) -28.5 (383-412) 70-66 5.5-6.2 -9<br />

’15 conf only -2.0 (27.1-29.1) 5.2 (400-395) 73-64 5.5-6.2 0<br />

2014 All 1.8 (25.8-24.1) 21.0 (374-353) 74-69 5.1-5.1 5<br />

’14 conf only -3.4 (20.9-24.2) -13.9 (342-356) 70-68 4.9-5.2 1<br />

2013 All -13.5 (19.8-33.2) -35.2 (368-404) 83-71 4.4-5.7 -5<br />

’13 conf only -18.0 (16.5-34.5) -59.8 (358-417) 82-70 4.3-6.0 4<br />

2012 All -6.2 (22.8-28.9) 43.2 (397-353) 74-69 5.3-5.1 -14<br />

’12 conf only -9.1 (21.0-30.1) 14.9 (368-353) 74-68 5.0-5.2 -5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 98% 59% 67% 27% 86% 76%<br />

The Cavaliers have had only one winning season since 2007 and this<br />

year made a surprisingly good hire by bringing in Bronco Mendenhall<br />

who led BYU to a bowl game in all 11 years coaching there.<br />

QB Matt Johns did <strong>com</strong>plete 61.3% of his passes last year but also<br />

threw 17 interceptions. The RB’s all return and perhaps we saw the<br />

<strong>com</strong>ing out of Albert Reid (360, 5.5) in the season finale as he had 103<br />

yards on 9 carries. They return 3 of their top 5 receivers with RB<br />

Taquan Mizzell being their leader as he had an ACC-record for RB’s (75<br />

receptions for 721 yards). The OL must replace a pair of starters but 6<br />

return that made multiple starters last season.<br />

Bronco Mendenhall is known for his defenses but he’ll have to start<br />

fresh up front losing all 3 DL while also having to replace a LB and DB.<br />

The secondary was injury plagued last year so there is some<br />

experienced depth led by All-ACC Quin Blanding at Safety.<br />

The schedule, like usual, is difficult as they have a pair of road trips in<br />

non-conference action against bowl teams from last year. Overall,<br />

they could be an underdog in as many as 8 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Richmond<br />

9/10 Sat at Oregon<br />

9/17 Sat at Connecticut<br />

9/24 Sat Central Mich<br />

10/1 Sat at Duke<br />

10/15 Sat Pittsburgh<br />

10/22 Sat North Carolina<br />

10/29 Sat Louisville<br />

11/5 Sat at Wake Forest<br />

11/12 Sat Miami (FL)<br />

11/19 Sat at Georgia Tech<br />

11/26 Sat at Virginia Tech<br />

open<br />

Virginia is 8-0 ATS as a dog after<br />

a loss as a dog (Nov 23, 2013)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 2-10 5-7 4-8<br />

Home 3-4 2-6 5-2 4-3<br />

Away 1-4 0-4 0-5 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 5-6 7-4 9-3<br />

HF 1-4 1-2 2-1 0-2<br />

HD 0-2 2-2 3-0 3-1<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AD 2-3 2-2 2-2 5-0<br />

vs Conf 2-6 3-4 3-4 7-1<br />

Non Conf 1-3 2-2 4-0 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-5 4-4 4-2 5-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 4-3 2-0 3-0<br />

Off SU Win 0-4 0-2 2-2 3-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-4 0-2 2-2 3-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 9-3 4-8 6-6<br />

as HF 2-2 3-0 2-2 2-0<br />

as HD 1-1 3-2 0-3 2-2<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-0<br />

as AD 2-3 3-1 1-3 1-4<br />

vs Conf 4-4 6-2 1-7 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-1 3-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 8-1 2-4 5-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 7-1 0-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 1-1 2-3 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 1-1 2-3 1-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 4-4 (T #4-#5 ACC-Coastal)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #74 - #44<br />

SOS: #53 Adjusted Off – Def: #74 - #36<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #29<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #53 (73.6)<br />

Virginia Tech<br />

The Hokies in ’16<br />

HC here: Justin Fuente – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.2, DEF-5.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #41<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.4% 33.2% 26.6% 30.8%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Hokies are 2-13 ATS as a fav Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

off a road win (s’/9/17/11)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-130)<br />

2015 8 (+115) 6-6 und<br />

2014 7.5 (-215) 6-6 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+140) 8-4 und<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 4.7 (31.0-26.3) 15.2 (385-370) 72-67 5.3-5.6 4<br />

’15 conf only 2.1 (25.4-23.2) -18.6 (324-343) 70-67 4.7-5.1 -1<br />

2014 All 3.9 (24.1-20.2) 21.5 (365-344) 74-67 4.9-5.2 -4<br />

’14 conf only -1.9 (19.4-21.2) 0.1 (341-341) 72-69 4.7-5.0 -5<br />

2013 All 3.2 (22.5-19.3) 72.4 (356-284) 71-62 5.0-4.6 7<br />

’13 conf only 5.2 (22.8-17.5) 80.0 (368-288) 70-61 5.3-4.7 5<br />

2012 All 2.2 (25.1-22.8) 44.0 (377-333) 73-70 5.2-4.8 -4<br />

’12 conf only -3.1 (24.1-27.2) 68.7 (395-326) 77-67 5.1-4.8 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

42% 82% 87% 80% 45% 62% 62%<br />

After roaming the Hokies’ sidelines for nearly three decades, Frank<br />

Beamer retired at the end of last season after leading Virginia Tech to<br />

23 straight bowl games. New head coach Justin Fuente does inherit an<br />

experienced team that has underachieved as of late.<br />

Gone is a 1.5-year starting QB and while Brendan Motely started 6<br />

games because of an injury, he could get supplanted by a Fuente JUCO<br />

recruit (Jerod Evans). The Hokies also lost a part-time starting TE and<br />

an OL starter but return everyone else including a 1,000-yard rusher<br />

in Travon McMillian and their first-ever 1,000-yard receiver Isaiah<br />

Ford. 90 career starts are back on the OL.<br />

Bud Foster did stay on as the DC so much will be the same for the unit<br />

which finished #36 in adjusted D last season but still allowed the most<br />

ppg (26.3) here since 1987. The secondary returns intact but they do<br />

lose 4 starters in their front 7.<br />

The schedule will see the Hokies favored in 3 of their first 4 games with<br />

the exception <strong>com</strong>ing vs Tennessee. They do avoid Florida St, Clemson<br />

and Louisville from the Atlantic but have to play at NC, Pitt and ND.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Liberty<br />

9/10 Sat (N) Tennessee<br />

9/17 Sat Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

9/24 Sat East Carolina<br />

10/8 Sat at North Carolina<br />

10/15 Sat at Syracuse<br />

10/20 Thu Miami (FL)<br />

10/27 Thu at Pittsburgh<br />

11/5 Sat at Duke<br />

11/12 Sat Georgia Tech<br />

11/19 Sat at Notre Dame<br />

11/26 Sat Virginia<br />

open<br />

Va Tech is 11-1-1 ATS as a HD<br />

off a loss (since/ Sep 10, 1988)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 8-5 7-6 7-6<br />

Home 5-1 4-2 3-4 2-4<br />

Away 1-4 4-1 3-2 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-9 4-8 6-7 6-7<br />

HF 2-3 2-3 1-4 2-2<br />

HD 1-0 0-0 1-1 1-1<br />

AF 0-3 0-3 1-2 2-2<br />

AD 0-2 2-0 2-0 1-1<br />

vs Conf 2-6 4-4 3-5 4-4<br />

Non Conf 2-3 0-4 3-2 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 1-2 2-4 3-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 0-0 0-1 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-5 3-5 3-3 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-5 3-5 3-3 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 4-8 3-8 6-6<br />

as HF 1-3 1-5 1-2 2-2<br />

as HD 0-1 0-0 1-1 1-1<br />

as AF 2-1 1-2 0-3 2-1<br />

as AD 1-1 1-1 1-1 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 3-5 2-6 1-6<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 1-3 1-2 5-0<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 2-2 2-3 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 0-1 1-0 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-3 2-6 1-5 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-3 2-6 1-5 3-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 1-7 (#6 ACC-Atlantic)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #115 - #38<br />

SOS: #54 Adjusted Off – Def: #114 - #75<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #53<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #83 (64.7)<br />

Wake Forest<br />

The Demon Deacons in ’16<br />

HC here: Dave Clawson – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.2*, DEF-7.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #59<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

26.9% 21.6% 26.5% 25.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Demon Deacons are 0-8 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being an AF (s’/11/15/97) <strong>2016</strong> 5.5 (+110)<br />

2015 3.5 (-125) 3-9 und<br />

2014 3.5 (-165) 3-9 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-170) 4-8 und<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -7.2 (17.4-24.6) -30.3 (333-364) 70-65 4.8-5.6 -13<br />

’15 conf only -12.4 (15.0-27.4) -113.6 (296-410) 66-68 4.5-6.0 -8<br />

2014 All -11.6 (14.8-26.4) -153.0 (216-369) 64-71 3.4-5.2 -2<br />

’14 conf only -17.4 (12.1-29.5) -206.8 (193-400) 63-72 3.1-5.6 -1<br />

2013 All -5.8 (18.3-24.1) -75.5 (291-366) 67-73 4.4-5.0 -2<br />

’13 conf only -12.9 (15.5-28.4) -116.3 (266-382) 67-72 4.0-5.3 -8<br />

2012 All -13.3 (18.5-31.8) -130.5 (301-432) 69-75 4.4-5.8 8<br />

’12 conf only -12.9 (16.5-29.4) -127.7 (286-414) 70-78 4.1-5.3 5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 100% 76% 82% 91% 40% 78%<br />

It’s been 7 straight losing seasons for the Demon Deacons but head<br />

coach Dave Clawson has gone to the youth movement in each of his<br />

first two years and with 16 returning starters, this is best team yet.<br />

The good news is that Wake Forest returns all but two offensive<br />

starters. However, the bad news is they finished #115 in total offense<br />

a year ago. They are far more experienced as both RB’s were freshman<br />

in 2015 as were 4 of their top 7 receivers. They bring back both QB’s<br />

who played last year. The OL does lose a 3-year starter but again 3<br />

freshman made a <strong>com</strong>bined 25 starts.<br />

The defense is far more experienced this season needing to replace a<br />

DT, a pair of LB’s and a DB. The stop unit only allowed 24.6 ppg and<br />

held their final 4 foes Louisville, ND, Clemson and Duke all under their<br />

scoring average by over 6 points per game. If the DL can produce more<br />

pressure this unit will help the Demon Deacons win games.<br />

The schedule is quite favorable as the Demon Deacons could be<br />

favored in 5-6 games (only favored in a total of 3 games the last 2 years<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined) and could get to their first bowl in 5 years.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Tulane<br />

9/10 Sat at Duke<br />

9/17 Sat Delaware<br />

9/24 Sat at Indiana<br />

10/1 Sat at NC St<br />

10/8 Sat Syracuse<br />

10/15 Sat at Florida St<br />

10/29 Sat Army<br />

11/5 Sat Virginia<br />

11/12 Sat at Louisville<br />

11/19 Sat Clemson<br />

11/26 Sat Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

open<br />

Wake Forest is 16-4 ATS as a dog<br />

after a home loss (s’/ 10/1/05)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 4-8 3-9 3-9<br />

Home 4-3 3-3 3-3 1-5<br />

Away 1-4 1-5 0-6 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 5-7 6-6 6-6<br />

HF 2-2 0-2 0-1 1-0<br />

HD 1-2 2-2 3-1 2-3<br />

AF 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1<br />

AD 2-3 2-3 2-4 3-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 3-5 4-4 4-4<br />

Non Conf 1-3 2-2 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-2 3-4 4-4 5-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-3 3-3 2-3<br />

Off SU Win 1-4 2-2 2-1 0-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-4 2-2 2-1 0-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 3-7 3-9 4-8 5-6<br />

as HF 2-1 0-2 0-1 1-0<br />

as HD 1-1 1-3 1-3 2-2<br />

as AF 0-0 0-1 0-0 0-1<br />

as AD 0-5 2-3 3-3 2-3<br />

vs Conf 1-6 2-6 3-5 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 1-3 1-3 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 2-5 2-6 2-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-3 1-5 2-3<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 1-3 2-1 2-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 1-3 2-1 2-0


2015 FINAL Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

EAST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Michigan State 12 2 85.7% 29.8 21.7 8 1 88.9%<br />

Ohio State 12 1 92.3% 35.7 15.1 7 1 87.5%<br />

Michigan 10 3 76.9% 31.4 16.4 6 2 75.0%<br />

Penn State 7 6 53.8% 23.2 21.8 4 4 50.0%<br />

Indiana 6 7 46.2% 36.5 37.6 2 6 25.0%<br />

Rutgers 4 8 33.3% 27.1 34.9 1 7 12.5%<br />

Maryland 3 9 25.0% 24.7 34.4 1 7 12.5%<br />

WEST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Iowa 12 2 85.7% 30.9 20.4 8 1 88.9%<br />

Northwestern 10 3 76.9% 19.5 18.6 6 2 75.0%<br />

Wisconsin 10 3 76.9% 26.8 13.7 6 2 75.0%<br />

Nebraska 6 7 46.2% 32.8 27.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Minnesota 6 7 46.2% 22.5 25.2 2 6 25.0%<br />

Illinois 5 7 41.7% 22.7 23.3 2 6 25.0%<br />

Purdue 2 10 16.7% 25.1 36.5 1 7 12.5%<br />

BRAD POWERS’<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

7 Michigan 89.95<br />

8 Ohio State 89.60<br />

15 Michigan St 85.53<br />

29 Iowa 83.32<br />

30 Nebraska 83.05<br />

33 Wisconsin 81.15<br />

36 Penn State 79.97<br />

43 Northwestern 77.73<br />

53 Minnesota 75.31<br />

61 Indiana 73.13<br />

75 Maryland 69.55<br />

78 Illinois 68.89<br />

83 Rutgers 67.62<br />

85 Purdue 67.38


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 2-6 (T #5-#6 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #88 - #30<br />

SOS: #39 Adjusted Off – Def: #80 - #46<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #48<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #62 (70.7)<br />

Illinois<br />

The Fighting Illini in ’16<br />

HC here: Lovie Smith – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.6*, DEF-4.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #71<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

4.2% 12.2% 39.2% 44.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Illini are 12-2 ATS as an AD<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after losing as a fav (s’/ 9/10/88) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-110)<br />

2015 3.5 (-170) 5-7 OV<br />

2014 4.5 (-175) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 3.5 (-160) 4-8 OV<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 2-10 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -0.6 (22.7-23.2) 21.8 (373-351) 76-72 4.9-4.9 4<br />

’15 conf only -8.5 (16.9-25.4) -16.5 (357-373) 72-73 4.9-5.1 2<br />

2014 All -8.1 (25.9-34.0) -89.2 (367-456) 68-76 5.4-6.0 -3<br />

’14 conf only -11.1 (23.5-34.6) -156.1 (326-482) 67-74 4.9-6.5 1<br />

2013 All -5.8 (29.7-35.4) -54.8 (427-482) 72-72 5.9-6.7 -10<br />

’13 conf only -16.4 (24.4-40.8) -105.4 (401-506) 73-73 5.5-6.9 -9<br />

2012 All -15.4 (16.7-32.1) -90.9 (297-388) 66-67 4.5-5.8 -12<br />

’12 conf only -23.4 (11.8-35.1) -147.1 (272-419) 65-70 4.2-6.0 -11<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 52% 52% 60% 70% 9% 35%<br />

After going 5-7 last season as the interim, head coach Bill Cubit was<br />

shockingly fired by new AD Josh Whitman in March. Not many coaches<br />

who were HC’s in the NFL have taken a HC job in college the next<br />

season (Dan Devine, Nick Saban and Bobby Petrino <strong>com</strong>e to mind) and<br />

now Lovie Smith gets added to the list.<br />

It’s easier to install a new offense when you have a returning starter<br />

at QB in Wes Lunt. Gone is the Illini’s #2 RB (only 15 yds less than<br />

starter) and their #1 receiver with a pair of OL (one was 6 th round pick).<br />

Last season Illinois threw the ball 57% of the time but expect this team<br />

with their new staff to be much closer to 50% in <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

Illinois allowed 23 first downs or less in every game last season (only<br />

other team to ac<strong>com</strong>plish this was Missouri). However, they will have<br />

to replace 7 defensive starters as they lose their top 3 tacklers and 6<br />

of their top 7. One LB job will be manned by an All-Pac-12 Cal transfer<br />

in Hardy Nickerson whose dad is the DC.<br />

The schedule could see them favored in only 4 games which means<br />

they’ll have to pull a few upsets to get to a bowl.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Murray St<br />

9/10 Sat North Carolina<br />

9/17 Sat Western Mich<br />

10/1 Sat at Nebraska<br />

10/8 Sat Purdue<br />

10/15 Sat at Rutgers<br />

10/22 Sat at Michigan<br />

10/29 Sat Minnesota<br />

11/5 Sat Michigan St<br />

11/12 Sat at Wisconsin<br />

11/19 Sat Iowa<br />

11/26 Sat at Northwestern<br />

open<br />

Illinois 10-1 ATS as a HD after a<br />

win as a fav (s’/ 11/12/94)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 2-10 4-8 6-7 5-7<br />

Home 2-5 3-4 5-2 4-2<br />

Away 0-5 1-3 1-4 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 5-6 5-8 5-7<br />

HF 2-3 1-1 1-3 2-1<br />

HD 1-1 3-2 2-1 1-2<br />

AF 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-0<br />

AD 0-5 1-2 2-3 1-3<br />

vs Conf 1-7 3-5 4-4 3-5<br />

Non Conf 2-2 2-1 1-4 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-7 3-4 3-3 1-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-6 3-3 3-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 0-2 2-1 2-4 3-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-2 2-1 2-4 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 7-5 6-7 4-8<br />

as HF 2-2 2-0 3-1 1-2<br />

as HD 0-2 4-1 0-3 0-3<br />

as AF 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-0<br />

as AD 3-2 1-2 3-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 4-4 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 3-1 2-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-5 4-3 3-3 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-5 3-3 3-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-0 2-2 3-3 1-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-0 2-2 3-3 1-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 2-6 (#4 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #14 - #122<br />

SOS: #56 Adjusted Off – Def: #27 - #105<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #52<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #57 (71.6)<br />

Indiana<br />

The Hoosiers in ’16<br />

HC here: Kevin Wilson – 6 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.3, DEF-7.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #55<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

12.6% 19.2% 37.1% 31.1%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Hoosiers are 2-13 ATS as an AD Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a home game (s’/10/9/10) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-110)<br />

2015 6 (+150) 6-6 push<br />

2014 5.5 (+170) 5-7 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-190) 4-8 und<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 1-11 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -1.1 (36.5-37.6) -5.2 (504-509) 81-80 6.2-6.4 8<br />

’15 conf only -4.5 (35.1-39.6) -36.4 (475-511) 78-80 6.1-6.4 2<br />

2014 All -7.8 (25.1-32.8) -28.8 (405-434) 71-74 5.7-5.9 -2<br />

’14 conf only -17.1 (18.9-36.0) -123.4 (328-452) 66-71 5.0-6.4 -3<br />

2013 All -0.4 (38.4-38.8) -19.4 (509-528) 77-78 6.6-6.7 -3<br />

’13 conf only -6.5 (35.4-41.9) -71.1 (489-560) 78-76 6.3-7.4 -1<br />

2012 All -4.5 (30.8-35.2) -21.5 (442-464) 78-76 5.7-6.1 -3<br />

’12 conf only -12.1 (28.9-41.0) -105.8 (409-515) 75-77 5.5-6.7 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

6% 52% 80% 60% 37% 85% 100%<br />

Only ONE Power-5 team had two 1,000 yard rushers, a 3,000 yard<br />

passer and a 1,000 yard receiver in 2015 and how many of you would<br />

have guessed it was Indiana? However, that was the case as the<br />

Hoosiers notched just their 2 nd bowl appearance since 1993.<br />

The Hoosiers do return a QB with starting experience as Zander<br />

Diamont took all the snaps for the last 6 games of 2014 as an injury<br />

replacement but he has plenty of <strong>com</strong>petition led by JUCO Richard<br />

Lagow. One of their two 1,000 yard rushers return as do their top 3<br />

receivers. The OL returns 3 starters including Dan Feeney who would<br />

have been drafted had he <strong>com</strong>e out.<br />

The defense is unusual as they lose all 4 DL starters while the back 7<br />

returns nearly intact (did lose a starting LB/S in summer). The defense<br />

is led by Marcus Oliver (first Hoosier to top 100 tackles since 2009) but<br />

has a lot to ground to make up as they allowed 37.6 ppg a year ago.<br />

The schedule will see the Hoosiers favored in each of the first 3 games<br />

while they should also be favored in Big Ten home games against<br />

Maryland and Purdue and possibly a road trip to Rutgers.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at FIU<br />

9/10 Sat Ball St<br />

9/24 Sat Wake Forest<br />

10/1 Sat Michigan St<br />

10/8 Sat at Ohio St<br />

10/15 Sat Nebraska<br />

10/22 Sat at Northwestern<br />

10/29 Sat Maryland<br />

11/5 Sat at Rutgers<br />

11/12 Sat Penn St<br />

11/19 Sat at Michigan<br />

11/26 Sat Purdue<br />

open<br />

Indiana is 12-4 to the OVER off a<br />

win the last 4 seasons<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 5-7 4-8 6-7<br />

Home 2-4 5-3 3-3 3-4<br />

Away 2-4 0-4 1-5 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-6 5-7 4-7 7-6<br />

HF 1-2 3-3 2-2 2-2<br />

HD 2-1 1-1 0-1 2-1<br />

AF 1-0 0-0 0-1 2-0<br />

AD 2-3 1-3 2-3 0-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 3-5 2-5 4-4<br />

Non Conf 2-2 2-2 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-3 4-3 4-3 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 2-3 3-2 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 0-4 0-3 5-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 0-4 0-3 5-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-3 9-3 6-6 9-2<br />

as HF 1-1 5-1 1-3 3-0<br />

as HD 3-0 2-0 1-1 2-1<br />

as AF 1-0 0-0 1-0 1-0<br />

as AD 3-2 2-2 3-2 1-1<br />

vs Conf 6-2 6-2 4-4 6-2<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 3-1 2-2 3-0<br />

Off SU Loss 5-2 5-2 4-4 5-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-0 4-1 3-3 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 3-1 2-1 4-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 3-1 2-1 4-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 12-2, 8-0 (#1 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #72 - #20<br />

SOS: #63 Adjusted Off – Def: #32 - #19<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #60<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #16 (84.6)<br />

Iowa<br />

The Hawkeyes in ’16<br />

HC here: Kirk Ferentz – 18 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.2*, DEF-7.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #47<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

4.5% 28.6% 29.9% 37.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Hawkeyes are 7-0 ATS as Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

an AF off a win (s’/ 9/14/13) <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-115) 12-0 OV<br />

2014 8.5 (-120) 7-5 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-120) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 4-8 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 10.6 (30.9-20.4) 45.1 (386-341) 67-69 5.8-5.0 11<br />

’15 conf only 10.8 (29.6-18.8) 21.8 (374-352) 66-72 5.7-4.9 11<br />

2014 All 2.6 (28.2-25.6) 55.8 (400-344) 73-65 5.5-5.3 -6<br />

’14 conf only 4.8 (31.2-26.5) 90.0 (417-327) 75-64 5.5-5.1 -4<br />

2013 All 7.4 (26.3-18.9) 73.9 (377-303) 72-66 5.3-4.6 -1<br />

’13 conf only 3.8 (23.4-19.6) 52.5 (362-309) 68-67 5.4-4.6 -1<br />

2012 All -3.6 (19.3-22.9) -71.2 (310-382) 66-69 4.7-5.5 12<br />

’12 conf only -6.4 (18.8-25.1) -126.1 (287-413) 65-71 4.4-5.8 9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 62% 51% 60% 64% 59% 73%<br />

After a magical 12-0 regular season, Iowa’s CFB playoff dreams came<br />

down to a 4 th & 2 play from the 3-yard line with 1:54 left in the Big Ten<br />

Championship. However, they couldn’t hold MSU. The hangover was<br />

clearly apparent as they were crushed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl.<br />

The offense returns their leader in QB CJ Beathard who had a 17-5<br />

ratio. They do have to replace their #1 RB and 3 of their top 5 receivers.<br />

They also lose a pair of OL who were all Big-Ten performers who<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined for 87 career starts (just 52 career starts return).<br />

Last year’s top 20 defense losses their #2, #3 & #4 tacklers but return<br />

the other 12 in the top 15. Each defensive unit has one starter to<br />

replace and they are led by LB Josey Jewell (126 tackles) and CB<br />

Desmond King who won the Jim Thorpe Award last year as the nation’s<br />

top defensive back (8 interceptions, 13 pbu’s).<br />

The schedule sets up for Iowa to make another run as they will be<br />

favored in at least 10 games. They host Northwestern, Wisconsin,<br />

Michigan and Nebraska and their 5 Big Ten road games <strong>com</strong>e against<br />

teams who were a <strong>com</strong>bined 10-30 in conference last year.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Miami (OH)<br />

9/10 Sat Iowa St<br />

9/17 Sat N Dakota St<br />

9/24 Sat at Rutgers<br />

10/1 Sat Northwestern<br />

10/8 Sat at Minnesota<br />

10/15 Sat at Purdue<br />

10/22 Sat Wisconsin<br />

11/5 Sat at Penn St<br />

11/12 Sat Michigan<br />

11/19 Sat at Illinois<br />

11/25 Fri Nebraska<br />

open<br />

Iowa is 10-1-1 ATS at home off a<br />

loss as an AF (s’/ 11/1/80)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 8-5 7-6 12-2<br />

Home 2-5 4-3 4-3 7-0<br />

Away 1-3 4-1 3-2 5-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-8 8-5 6-7 8-6<br />

HF 1-4 2-3 2-4 2-5<br />

HD 1-0 0-1 1-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-0 3-0 2-0 4-0<br />

AD 1-3 2-0 1-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 5-3 5-3 5-4<br />

Non Conf 0-3 3-2 1-4 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 3-1 3-2 0-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 3-0 1-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 5-3 3-4 7-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 5-3 3-4 7-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-7 6-5 7-5 8-6<br />

as HF 3-2 2-2 4-2 5-2<br />

as HD 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 0-0 1-1 0-2 2-2<br />

as AD 1-3 2-0 1-1 0-1<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 5-2 5-4<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 2-1 2-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 2-1 3-2 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-3 2-1 0-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 3-4 3-3 7-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 3-4 3-3 7-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 1-7 (T #6-#7 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5, DEF-4<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #87 - #92<br />

SOS: #19 Adjusted Off – Def: #90 - #70<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #49<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #81 (65.2)<br />

Maryland<br />

The Terrapins in ’16<br />

HC here: DJ Durkin – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.3, DEF-5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #42<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.4% 15.2% 38.4% 38.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Terrapins are 7-0 to the Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

OVER at home as a pick or <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (+110)<br />

2015 4.5 (-140) 3-9 und<br />

favorite (s’/ 11/23/13)<br />

2014 6.5 (+110) 6-6 und<br />

2013 6.5 (-140) 7-5 OV<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 4-8 push<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -9.8 (24.7-34.4) -46.2 (375-421) 69-76 5.4-5.6 -18<br />

’15 conf only -13.0 (22.2-35.2) -30.2 (368-398) 71-72 5.2-5.5 -9<br />

2014 All -1.7 (28.5-30.2) -94.3 (342-436) 65-80 5.3-5.5 0<br />

’14 conf only -7.6 (25.2-32.9) -99.5 (327-427) 65-78 5.1-5.5 -2<br />

2013 All 0.8 (26.2-25.3) 22.5 (397-374) 69-74 5.8-5.1 -7<br />

’13 conf only -12.0 (20.1-32.1) -70.2 (347-417) 67-77 5.2-5.4 -11<br />

2012 All -7.1 (20.1-27.2) -51.8 (285-337) 65-68 4.4-5.0 -8<br />

’12 conf only -10.2 (19.5-29.8) -88.2 (286-375) 65-71 4.4-5.3 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 60% 88% 38% 61% 68% 30%<br />

A 3-win season had Maryland looking for a new HC and they found a<br />

good one in former Michigan DC DJ Durkin. Durkin’s coordinators may<br />

not be household manes but he also has 2 former head coaches as<br />

assistants in Mike London (Virginia) and Pete Lembo (Ball State).<br />

The Terrapins offense was in the bottom 25% last year so while they<br />

return all their skill players except for their #1 RB, they have work to<br />

do. That’s especially true at QB where <strong>com</strong>bined, they had a very poor<br />

15-29 ratio in 2015. The OL breaks in 3 new starters and not only will<br />

they be learning new schemes, they are lightly experienced.<br />

The stop unit has even more holes including a pair of DL, a LB and 3<br />

from the secondary including 6 of their top 9 tacklers. The biggest<br />

losses are DE Yannick Ngakoue who had a school-record 13.5 sacks<br />

and CB Sean Davis was drafted in the second round.<br />

The schedule does set up nicely as they could be favored in each of<br />

their first four games. A 4-0 start there and Durkin could have the<br />

Terps right back in bowl contention as they also have winnable games<br />

vs Minnesota and Rutgers at home in conference play.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Howard<br />

9/9 Fri at FIU<br />

9/17 Sat at UCF<br />

10/1 Sat Purdue<br />

10/8 Sat at Penn St<br />

10/15 Sat Minnesota<br />

10/22 Sat Michigan St<br />

10/29 Sat at Indiana<br />

11/5 Sat at Michigan<br />

11/12 Sat Ohio St<br />

11/19 Sat at Nebraska<br />

11/26 Sat Rutgers<br />

open<br />

Maryland is 0-8 ATS after a win<br />

as a fav (since’/ 10/05/13)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 7-6 7-6 3-9<br />

Home 2-4 3-3 2-4 2-4<br />

Away 2-4 3-2 5-1 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-6 7-6 6-7 7-5<br />

HF 0-2 2-2 2-2 2-1<br />

HD 2-2 1-0 0-2 1-1<br />

AF 0-0 2-1 0-1 1-0<br />

AD 4-2 1-1 4-1 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 3-5 4-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-2 4-1 2-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 3-2 4-1 6-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 2-2 3-0 5-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 3-4 1-6 0-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 3-4 1-6 0-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-5 8-5 7-5 7-4<br />

as HF 0-1 2-2 4-0 2-0<br />

as HD 2-1 1-0 1-1 1-1<br />

as AF 0-0 2-1 0-1 1-0<br />

as AD 3-3 2-0 1-3 1-3<br />

vs Conf 3-4 6-2 4-4 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-3 3-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 4-1 2-2 5-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 3-1 1-2 5-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 3-4 4-3 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 3-4 4-3 1-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (#3 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #69 - #4<br />

SOS: #32 Adjusted Off – Def: #20 - #20<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #37<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #9 (86.8)<br />

Michigan<br />

The Wolverines in ’16<br />

HC here: Jim Harbaugh – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.2, DEF-6.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #5<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

0.4% 9.6% 23.6% 66.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Wolverines are 1-10 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win at home (s’/ 11/5/11) <strong>2016</strong> 10 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (+105) 9-3 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-190) 5-7 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+105) 7-5 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 18-4 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 15.0 (31.4-16.4) 115.2 (396-281) 70-63 5.7-4.5 -4<br />

’15 conf only 11.0 (32.0-21.0) 62.3 (382-320) 68-66 5.6-4.8 -4<br />

2014 All -1.5 (20.9-22.4) 21.7 (333-311) 63-65 5.3-4.8 -16<br />

’14 conf only -4.1 (19.4-23.5) -39.1 (297-337) 61-67 4.9-5.0 -6<br />

2013 All 5.4 (32.2-26.8) 2.0 (373-371) 69-70 5.4-5.3 5<br />

’13 conf only 2.4 (31.6-29.2) -26.0 (370-396) 71-73 5.2-5.4 10<br />

2012 All 10.0 (29.8-19.8) 63.1 (383-320) 63-65 6.1-4.9 -9<br />

’12 conf only 14.1 (30.8-16.6) 82.7 (381-299) 62-65 6.2-4.6 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

2% 72% 92% 80% 74% 15% 77%<br />

After improving Michigan’s win total by 5 games in 2015, expectations<br />

are through the roof for the Wolverines in year 2 under head coach<br />

Jim Harbaugh.<br />

Last year Harbaugh used a transfer QB from Iowa named Jake Rudock<br />

to get to 10 wins and Rudock became a 6th round draft choice. This<br />

year his signal caller could be a transfer again as John O’Korn<br />

(Houston) is battling Wilton Speight. The only other departures on the<br />

offense is a TE (although All-American Jake Butt retuns) and one OL<br />

(105 career starts back).<br />

The defense has a few more holes to fill and they lose 5 of their front<br />

7. They do return a couple of players at DL who were injured last year<br />

and they will move S Jabrill Peppers to LB to offset the losses. They<br />

have one of the nation’s top secondaries.<br />

The Wolverines figure to be huge favorites in each of their first 7<br />

games of the season as their only road trip is to Rutgers. However,<br />

they have 3 tough road games to close in Michigan State, Iowa and<br />

Ohio State which will determine their conference and CFB playoff fate.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Hawaii<br />

9/10 Sat UCF<br />

9/17 Sat Colorado<br />

9/24 Sat Penn St<br />

10/1 Sat Wisconsin<br />

10/8 Sat at Rutgers<br />

10/22 Sat Illinois<br />

10/29 Sat at Michigan St<br />

11/5 Sat Maryland<br />

11/12 Sat at Iowa<br />

11/19 Sat Indiana<br />

11/26 Sat at Ohio St<br />

open<br />

Michigan is 7-0 ATS away after a<br />

road loss (since/ Oct 11, 2003)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 7-6 5-7 10-3<br />

Home 6-0 5-2 4-3 5-2<br />

Away 2-3 2-3 1-4 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 7-6 5-6 7-6<br />

HF 3-3 4-2 3-4 4-2<br />

HD 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1<br />

AF 2-0 0-2 0-0 2-2<br />

AD 0-3 2-1 2-2 0-1<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-3 4-3 4-4<br />

Non Conf 1-3 2-3 1-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-1 3-2 4-2 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 0-1 2-2 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 3-4 0-4 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 3-4 0-4 5-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-7 6-7 4-8 8-5<br />

as HF 3-3 4-2 2-5 3-3<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0<br />

as AF 1-1 1-1 0-1 3-1<br />

as AD 0-3 0-3 2-2 0-1<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 3-5 7-1<br />

vs Non Conf 3-2 2-3 1-3 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 2-3 3-3 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 0-1 2-2 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 3-4 0-5 6-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 3-4 0-5 6-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 12-2, 7-1 (T #1-#2 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #73 - #26<br />

SOS: #26 Adjusted Off – Def: #26 - #18<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #22<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #6 (89.5)<br />

Michigan St<br />

The Spartans in ’16<br />

HC here: Mark Dantonio – 10 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.3, DEF-5.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #18<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.6% 19.6% 25.2% 49.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS as<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a single digit dog (s’/12/1/11) <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-130)<br />

2015 9.5 (-155) 11-1 OV<br />

2014 9.5 (+100) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (-120) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 8.1 (29.8-21.7) 35.6 (386-350) 71-64 5.4-5.5 14<br />

’15 conf only 11.2 (31.6-20.3) 88.3 (408-319) 74-61 5.5-5.2 10<br />

2014 All 21.5 (43.0-21.5) 185.0 (501-316) 76-62 6.6-5.1 19<br />

’14 conf only 19.8 (39.5-19.8) 191.4 (487-296) 75-63 6.5-4.7 11<br />

2013 All 16.1 (29.4-13.2) 133.6 (386-252) 71-62 5.4-4.0 13<br />

’13 conf only 17.8 (30.2-12.4) 129.5 (404-275) 71-63 5.7-4.3 11<br />

2012 All 3.7 (20.0-16.3) 84.9 (359-274) 74-63 4.9-4.4 2<br />

’12 conf only 1.2 (19.9-18.6) 59.8 (353-293) 72-65 4.9-4.5 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

5% 93% 35% 46% 32% 73% 80%<br />

Michigan State joins Alabama as the only teams to finish in the AP top<br />

10 each of the last 3 seasons. While the Spartans lose 12 starters, they<br />

do return 26 players with starting experience.<br />

The biggest challenge will be replacing QB Connor Cook who went 34-<br />

5 as a starter but Tyler O’Connor is a senior and did make one start<br />

last season (upset win at Ohio St). The RB unit is set as their top 3 all<br />

return led by LJ Scott. The Spartans do lose both starting WR’s<br />

including Aaron Burbridge. The OL also takes a big hit with all the 3<br />

departing seniors having a <strong>com</strong>bined 118 career starts.<br />

The biggest question mark on defense could be the DL that loses 3<br />

starters including DE Shilique Calhoun. They do have an All-American<br />

candidate at DT in Malik McDowell. The LB corps returns a couple of<br />

starters led by Riley Bullough and could get add in Ed Davis (petitioning<br />

for a 6 th year). 10 of the top 12 are back in the secondary.<br />

While they must play at Notre Dame early in the season (they have a<br />

bye prior), they get all important Big 10 games vs Wisconsin, Michigan<br />

and Ohio State at home where they are 52-12 the last 9 years.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri Furman<br />

9/17 Sat at Notre Dame<br />

9/24 Sat Wisconsin<br />

10/1 Sat at Indiana<br />

10/8 Sat BYU<br />

10/15 Sat Northwestern<br />

10/22 Sat at Maryland<br />

10/29 Sat Michigan<br />

11/5 Sat at Illinois<br />

11/12 Sat Rutgers<br />

11/19 Sat Ohio St<br />

11/26 Sat at Penn St<br />

open<br />

Michigan St is 18-4-1 ATS after a<br />

win as an AD (s’/ 11/02/85)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 13-1 11-2 12-2<br />

Home 2-5 7-0 6-1 7-0<br />

Away 4-1 4-1 4-1 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-8 10-4 9-4 5-9<br />

HF 0-6 3-4 5-2 3-4<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 2-1 3-0 3-1 0-3<br />

AD 2-0 1-0 0-1 2-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 7-2 5-3 5-4<br />

Non Conf 2-3 3-2 4-1 0-5<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 1-0 2-0 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 2-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-4 9-3 6-4 4-8<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-4 9-3 6-4 4-8<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 2-10 6-8 8-4 7-7<br />

as HF 0-6 2-5 4-3 3-4<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-1 1-2 2-1 3-0<br />

as AD 0-2 0-1 1-0 1-1<br />

vs Conf 2-6 4-5 3-4 5-4<br />

vs Non Conf 0-4 2-3 5-0 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-5 1-0 1-1 0-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 1-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 1-4 5-7 6-3 6-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-4 5-7 6-3 6-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 2-6 (T #5-#6 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #103 - #24<br />

SOS: #31 Adjusted Off – Def: #76 - #65<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #63<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #54 (72.8)<br />

Minnesota<br />

The Golden Gophers in ’16<br />

HC here: Tracy Claeys – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.7*, DEF-6.4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #48<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.7% 27.6% 25.5% 39.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Gophers are 0-9 ATS as a dog Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being an AF (s’/ 10/8/94) <strong>2016</strong> 6 (-110)<br />

2015 5.5 (-175) 5-7 und<br />

2014 6.5 (+120) 8-4 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-120) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 4.5 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.7 (22.5-25.2) 13.0 (359-346) 67-71 5.3-4.9 -4<br />

’15 conf only -5.6 (24.2-29.9) -27.9 (347-375) 63-72 5.5-5.2 -2<br />

2014 All 4.2 (28.4-24.2) -10.8 (357-368) 66-68 5.5-5.4 10<br />

’14 conf only 5.5 (30.5-25.0) 13.9 (366-352) 67-63 5.5-5.6 7<br />

2013 All 3.5 (25.7-22.2) -29.9 (343-373) 66-66 5.2-5.7 3<br />

’13 conf only -4.8 (18.8-23.5) -50.2 (320-371) 66-64 4.9-5.8 0<br />

2012 All -2.6 (22.1-24.7) -37.2 (321-359) 65-68 4.9-5.3 -2<br />

’12 conf only -10.4 (17.1-27.5) -102.2 (273-375) 62-66 4.4-5.7 -8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 90% 68% 46% 65% 75% 42%<br />

Since 1995, Tracey Claeys had been a defensive assistant for Jerry Kill.<br />

When Kill stepped down for medical reasons in the middle of last<br />

season, Claeys was named head coach and the Gophers would play<br />

well covering in 5 of those 6 games including a bowl win.<br />

The new offense (Claeys surprisingly fired long-time Kill assistant Matt<br />

Limegrover) will have all but one skill player back (lose their #1<br />

receiver). QB Mitch Leidner averaged 242 passing ypg in the final 7 and<br />

they have a great 1-2 punch of sophomore RB’s. The OL does lose 108<br />

career starts (just 37 return).<br />

The defense loses its #1 and #3 tacklers as well as 4 of their top 6.<br />

However, the DL does return 3 starters and the LB’s return 6 of their<br />

top 7. The weakest link will be the secondary as they lose a pair of All-<br />

Big Ten performers at CB and also lose their leading tackler.<br />

The schedule will see the Golden Gophers favored in each of their first<br />

3 games and they also get conference bottom-feeders Rutgers and<br />

Purdue at home. They could be favored in as many as 7 of their first 9<br />

games and should be back in a bowl for a 5 th straight year.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Oregon St<br />

9/10 Sat Indiana St<br />

9/24 Sat Colorado St<br />

10/1 Sat at Penn St<br />

10/8 Sat Iowa<br />

10/15 Sat at Maryland<br />

10/22 Sat Rutgers<br />

10/29 Sat at Illinois<br />

11/5 Sat Purdue<br />

11/12 Sat at Nebraska<br />

11/19 Sat Northwestern<br />

11/26 Sat at Wisconsin<br />

open<br />

Minnesota is 7-0 ATS as an AD<br />

after being a dog (s’/ 10/19/13)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 6-7 8-5 8-5 6-7<br />

Home 4-3 5-2 6-1 3-4<br />

Away 2-3 3-2 2-3 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 9-4 8-5 7-6<br />

HF 2-0 3-1 3-2 1-3<br />

HD 1-3 2-1 1-0 2-1<br />

AF 1-1 1-0 0-1 1-1<br />

AD 0-3 3-1 3-1 2-1<br />

vs Conf 2-6 6-2 6-2 5-3<br />

Non Conf 4-1 3-2 2-3 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 2-2 3-1 6-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 2-2 1-1 4-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 6-2 4-4 0-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 6-2 4-4 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 6-7 6-7 7-6<br />

as HF 0-1 2-2 2-3 3-1<br />

as HD 2-2 1-2 0-1 2-1<br />

as AF 1-1 1-0 0-1 1-1<br />

as AD 1-2 2-2 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 3-5 4-4 6-2<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 3-2 2-3 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 1-3 2-2 4-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 1-3 1-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-4 4-4 4-4 3-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-4 4-4 4-4 3-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 3-5 (#4 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #34 - #65<br />

SOS: #45 Adjusted Off – Def: #33 - #69<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #30<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #49 (74.7)<br />

Nebraska<br />

The Cornhuskers in ’16<br />

HC here: Mike Riley – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.2*, DEF-6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #25<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.7% 14.4% 46.0% 31.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Huskers are 9-2 to the<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

OVER vs non-conf (s’/ 1/1/14) <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-110)<br />

2015 8 (-120) 5-7 und<br />

2014 8.5 (+155) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 9.5 (+100) 8-3 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 5.0 (32.8-27.8) 46.5 (447-400) 73-68 6.1-5.9 -12<br />

’15 conf only 2.2 (30.6-28.4) 28.1 (404-376) 71-68 5.7-5.5 -11<br />

2014 All 11.4 (37.8-26.4) 68.6 (452-384) 73-71 6.2-5.4 -2<br />

’14 conf only 6.2 (33.4-27.1) -4.7 (390-394) 70-72 5.5-5.5 -2<br />

2013 All 7.1 (31.9-24.8) 41.6 (412-371) 74-71 5.6-5.2 -11<br />

’13 conf only 2.8 (27.2-24.5) 65.0 (384-319) 74-70 5.2-4.5 -16<br />

2012 All 7.2 (34.8-27.6) 100.1 (461-361) 74-69 6.2-5.2 -12<br />

’12 conf only -0.3 (29.1-29.4) 87.8 (427-339) 75-66 5.7-5.2 -9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 69% 90% 35% 47% 100% 64%<br />

There may not have been a more hard-luck team in 2015 than the<br />

Cornhuskers who lost 5 games in the final seconds (did get a fortunate<br />

win over Michigan State due to a controversial call). This year’s team<br />

looks to be much improved in year 2 under head coach Mike Riley.<br />

It isn’t often when a 3-year starting QB has to <strong>com</strong>e into spring looking<br />

over his shoulder but the coaching staff was not happy with Tommy<br />

Armstrong throwing 16 interceptions last year. The RB’s return their<br />

#1 (765 yards) and the receivers are set as the top 6 are all back led by<br />

Jordan Westerkamp. The OL maybe the biggest question mark as they<br />

must replace 3 starters and return only 24 career starts.<br />

The defense last year allowed their WORST ppg average SINCE 1948<br />

(30.3). While the entire front 4 will be new, 3 have experience as you<br />

can see above with 47% of the DL tackles returning. The rest of the<br />

defense is set as they return 5 of their top 6 tacklers.<br />

The schedule could see the Cornhuskers favored in 6 of their first 7<br />

games but they do have 3 tough road trips in the back half (Wisconsin,<br />

Ohio State and Iowa) where they figure to be a dog in each.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Fresno St<br />

9/10 Sat Wyoming<br />

9/17 Sat Oregon<br />

9/24 Sat at Northwestern<br />

10/1 Sat Illinois<br />

10/15 Sat at Indiana<br />

10/22 Sat Purdue<br />

10/29 Sat at Wisconsin<br />

11/5 Sat at Ohio St<br />

11/12 Sat Minnesota<br />

11/19 Sat Maryland<br />

11/25 Fri at Iowa<br />

open<br />

Nebraska is 9-1 ATS as a dog<br />

away from home the L3Y<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-4 9-4 9-4 6-7<br />

Home 7-0 5-3 6-1 3-4<br />

Away 3-2 3-1 3-2 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-7 7-6 8-4 6-7<br />

HF 6-1 3-4 3-3 1-3<br />

HD 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-2<br />

AF 0-3 1-1 2-0 1-2<br />

AD 0-1 2-0 2-1 2-0<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-4 4-3 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-2 3-2 4-1 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-2 3-1 2-1 4-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 3-1 0-1 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-5 4-4 5-3 2-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-5 4-4 5-3 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-5 6-7 8-5 8-5<br />

as HF 3-3 4-3 3-4 3-1<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-2<br />

as AF 1-2 1-1 2-0 1-2<br />

as AD 1-0 0-2 2-1 2-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 3-5 4-4 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-2 4-1 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-2 1-3 2-1 5-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 1-3 0-1 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 4-4 5-4 2-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 4-4 5-4 2-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (T #2-#3 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #117 - #13<br />

SOS: #42 Adjusted Off – Def: #102 - #6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #54<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #30 (78.3)<br />

Northwestern<br />

The Wildcats in ’16<br />

HC here: Pat Fitzgerald – 11 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-6.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #52<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.4% 21.1% 21.1% 47.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Wildcats are 11-2 to the Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

UNDER as a HF the L3Y<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-120)<br />

2015 6.5 (+110) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (+115) 5-7 und<br />

2013 8.5 (-105) 5-7 und<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 0.9 (19.5-18.6) 8.2 (327-319) 73-70 4.5-4.5 1<br />

’15 conf only -1.8 (18.5-20.2) -39.3 (294-333) 69-72 4.3-4.6 3<br />

2014 All -2.2 (23.0-25.2) -31.2 (353-384) 78-73 4.5-5.3 4<br />

’14 conf only -3.9 (21.2-25.1) -32.8 (332-365) 77-69 4.3-5.3 3<br />

2013 All -0.9 (26.2-27.1) -23.9 (400-424) 74-78 5.4-5.5 3<br />

’13 conf only -10.1 (18.6-28.8) -64.1 (358-422) 74-75 4.8-5.6 -1<br />

2012 All 9.2 (31.7-22.5) 16.5 (395-378) 74-72 5.3-5.3 14<br />

’12 conf only 6.8 (31.6-24.9) -1.2 (393-394) 71-74 5.5-5.3 9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

85% 99% 45% 72% 53% 80% 62%<br />

Last year the Wildcats went 10-3 overall and 6-2 in B10 play. In 2014<br />

they went 3-5 in conference action, but if you take a look at the<br />

conference ypg for the last 2 years, you’ll note that they were<br />

“BETTER” in 2014 at -32.8 ypg <strong>com</strong>pared to -39.9 ypg last year.<br />

The returning starters are also a bit misleading as the Wildcats lose 3<br />

rec’s, a slot back and one OL yet their leading receiver had only 355<br />

yards because they ran the ball 63% of the time. The star on offense is<br />

RB Justin Jackson and 2 nd -year QB Clayton Thorson figures to be much<br />

improved throwing (just 7-9 ratio last year). The OL does return 64<br />

career starts.<br />

The defense allowed just 18.6 ppg and 319 ypg a year ago (their best<br />

since the 1995 Rose Bowl season). They do have question marks at DE<br />

but return 5 of their top 6 LB’s and 5 of their top 8 DB’s.<br />

The schedule could see them favored in each of their first three games<br />

but they do have tough road trips to Iowa, Michigan State and Ohio<br />

State in conference play and it’s tough seeing them matching last<br />

year’s 10-win total.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Western Mich<br />

9/10 Sat Illinois St<br />

9/17 Sat Duke<br />

9/24 Sat Nebraska<br />

10/1 Sat at Iowa<br />

10/15 Sat at Michigan St<br />

10/22 Sat Indiana<br />

10/29 Sat at Ohio St<br />

11/5 Sat Wisconsin<br />

11/12 Sat at Purdue<br />

11/19 Sat at Minnesota<br />

11/26 Sat Illinois<br />

open<br />

Northwestern is 1-11 ATS as a<br />

HF off a road loss (s’/ 10/16/93)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-3 5-7 5-7 10-3<br />

Home 6-1 3-4 2-5 6-1<br />

Away 3-2 2-3 3-2 3-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 12-1 3-9 4-7 8-5<br />

HF 5-0 1-4 0-4 2-2<br />

HD 2-0 0-2 1-1 2-1<br />

AF 1-0 1-1 1-0 0-0<br />

AD 2-1 1-2 2-2 3-1<br />

vs Conf 7-1 1-7 3-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 5-0 2-2 1-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 1-6 1-4 1-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 0-3 0-1 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 8-1 1-3 3-2 6-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 8-1 1-3 3-2 6-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 4-8 5-7 5-8<br />

as HF 2-2 1-4 1-3 0-4<br />

as HD 0-2 1-1 1-2 2-1<br />

as AF 0-1 2-0 1-0 0-0<br />

as AD 2-1 0-3 2-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 2-6 4-4 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 2-2 1-3 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 0-3 1-6 3-3 2-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 1-2 1-1 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 2-2 2-3 3-7<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 2-2 2-3 3-7


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 12-1, 7-1 (T #1-#2 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #41 - #9<br />

SOS: #41 Adjusted Off – Def: #24 - #7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #7<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #2 (94.1)<br />

Ohio St<br />

The Buckeyes in ’16<br />

HC here: Urban Meyer – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-3.1*, DEF-3.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #4<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

1.7% 35.3% 30.1% 32.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Buckeyes are 9-0 ATS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

as a B10 AD the last 7 years <strong>2016</strong> 9.5 (+105)<br />

2015 11 (-130) 11-1 push<br />

2014 10.5 (+135) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 11.5 (+140) 12-0 OV<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 12-0 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 20.6 (35.7-15.1) 122.8 (434-311) 69-69 6.3-4.5 3<br />

’15 conf only 20.4 (35.2-14.9) 96.8 (425-329) 67-69 6.4-4.8 3<br />

2014 All 22.8 (44.8-22.0) 169.2 (512-342) 73-69 7.0-5.0 7<br />

’14 conf only 24.7 (46.3-21.7) 168.0 (502-334) 69-71 7.2-4.7 10<br />

2013 All 22.9 (45.5-22.6) 134.5 (512-377) 72-71 7.2-5.3 5<br />

’13 conf only 19.6 (43.6-24.0) 115.2 (514-399) 70-73 7.4-5.4 3<br />

2012 All 14.3 (37.2-22.8) 64.2 (424-360) 70-71 6.1-5.1 3<br />

’12 conf only 11.2 (36.9-25.6) 80.1 (422-342) 70-69 6.1-5.0 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

40% 28% 19% 40% 45% 48% 35%<br />

The Buckeyes have incredibly gone 50-4 under Urban Meyer but they<br />

will have their work cut out for them as the Buckeyes enter the season<br />

as the least experienced team in the country with only 6 starters back.<br />

It does help that of the 3 returning starters on offense, QB JT Barrett<br />

is one of them. Remember, Barrett was 5 th in the Heisman voting in<br />

2014. The other two starters are both on the OL. In fact, the offense<br />

has only one player back besides Barrett that had over 100 rush yards<br />

last year and has only one player back that had over 100 receiving<br />

yards and it’s the same player in Curtis Samuel.<br />

The defense is in the same position as they return only 3 starters but<br />

they do get back their defensive leader and #1 tackler LB Raekwon<br />

McMillan. Overall, seven of the team’s top 15 tacklers are back so<br />

there is more experience than you think.<br />

The schedule is more difficult than previous seasons as the Buckeyes<br />

play at Oklahoma in Week 3 and also play at Wisconsin, at Penn State<br />

and at Michigan State in conference action. They do get the allimportant<br />

game vs Michigan at home in the finale.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Bowling Green<br />

9/10 Sat Tulsa<br />

9/17 Sat at Oklahoma<br />

10/1 Sat Rutgers<br />

10/8 Sat Indiana<br />

10/15 Sat at Wisconsin<br />

10/22 Sat at Penn St<br />

10/29 Sat Northwestern<br />

11/5 Sat Nebraska<br />

11/12 Sat at Maryland<br />

11/19 Sat at Michigan St<br />

11/26 Sat Michigan<br />

open<br />

Ohio St is 14-1 ATS away after a<br />

home loss (since Oct 22, 1988)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 12-0 12-2 14-1 12-1<br />

Home 8-0 7-0 6-1 6-1<br />

Away 4-0 5-0 4-0 5-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-5 6-7 10-5 6-7<br />

HF 4-4 3-3 4-3 1-6<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-1 3-2 1-2 4-1<br />

AD 2-0 0-0 1-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 6-2 3-5 5-4 4-4<br />

Non Conf 1-3 3-2 5-1 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 1-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 6-5 6-5 8-5 4-7<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-5 6-5 8-5 4-7<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 10-4 12-3 4-8<br />

as HF 4-4 4-3 7-0 1-5<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-0 4-1 2-1 2-3<br />

as AD 0-2 0-0 1-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 6-3 8-1 2-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 4-1 4-2 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 1-0 1-0 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-6 8-4 11-2 2-8<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-6 8-4 11-2 2-8


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 4-4 (#4 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #105 - #14<br />

SOS: #49 Adjusted Off – Def: #83 - #25<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #15<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #67 (69.8)<br />

Penn St<br />

The Nittany Lions in ’16<br />

HC here: James Franklin – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.5*, DEF-5.4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #20<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.4% 35.7% 33.6% 22.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Nittany Lions are 3-14 ATS as Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

an AD after a win (s’/ 10/26/02) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-160) 7-5 und<br />

2014 7.5 (+100) 6-6 und<br />

2013 8.5 (+150) 7-5 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.3 (23.2-21.8) 24.2 (349-324) 64-68 5.5-4.8 4<br />

’15 conf only 0.8 (23.8-23.0) 23.9 (370-346) 64-71 5.8-4.9 -1<br />

2014 All 2.0 (20.6-18.6) 57.1 (335-278) 73-65 4.6-4.3 -5<br />

’14 conf only -6.6 (14.0-20.6) -7.3 (268-275) 72-68 3.7-4.1 -1<br />

2013 All 2.5 (28.7-26.2) 51.8 (433-381) 76-72 5.7-5.3 -2<br />

’13 conf only -5.6 (26.4-32.0) -10.4 (419-430) 77-75 5.5-5.7 1<br />

2012 All 10.0 (29.1-19.1) 64.1 (418-353) 78-72 5.4-4.9 9<br />

’12 conf only 11.6 (32.6-21.0) 82.1 (437-355) 81-72 5.4-4.9 5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

8% 84% 86% 82% 36% 72% 72%<br />

The James Franklin era has been a bit of a disappointment with backto-back<br />

7-6 seasons (just 6-10 in Big Ten play) but this year’s team<br />

could be his best yet especially on offense.<br />

It’s rare that you lose a 2 nd round draft choice at QB and have realistic<br />

expectations that you’ll get more production out of the position. The<br />

offense is changing to a “spread” with a new OC and the mobile<br />

sophomore Trace McSorely fits the bill. The skill positions are led by<br />

1,000-yard rusher Saquon Barkley and 1,000-yard receiver Chris<br />

Godwin. The OL also returns 91 career starts.<br />

There are only a handful of units that lost as much as the Penn St DL<br />

as 3 of their 4 starters depart and they did so as 2 nd , 3 rd and 6 th round<br />

draft choices. The LB corps loses a starter but also gets one back after<br />

getting injured in the opener last season. The secondary also has 2<br />

holes to fill but have experienced replacements.<br />

While Penn State has two tough road games in the month of<br />

September (Pitt and Michigan), they do get key games vs Ohio St, Iowa<br />

and Michigan St all at home where they are 61-17 the last 11 years.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Kent St<br />

9/10 Sat at Pittsburgh<br />

9/17 Sat Temple<br />

9/24 Sat at Michigan<br />

10/1 Sat Minnesota<br />

10/8 Sat Maryland<br />

10/22 Sat Ohio St<br />

10/29 Sat at Purdue<br />

11/5 Sat Iowa<br />

11/12 Sat at Indiana<br />

11/19 Sat at Rutgers<br />

11/26 Sat Michigan St<br />

open<br />

Penn St is 7-0-1 ATS as an AF<br />

after a HF loss (‘/ Oct 1, 1998)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-4 7-5 7-6 7-6<br />

Home 5-2 5-2 3-4 6-1<br />

Away 3-2 1-3 2-2 0-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-3 5-7 6-6 4-9<br />

HF 5-1 3-3 3-2 4-2<br />

HD 0-0 1-0 1-1 0-1<br />

AF 1-0 0-1 0-2 0-2<br />

AD 3-1 1-2 0-1 0-2<br />

vs Conf 6-2 3-5 1-6 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 2-2 5-0 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 4-0 4-1 2-3 0-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 2-1 1-1 0-4<br />

Off SU Win 5-2 1-5 3-3 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-2 1-5 3-3 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-5 5-7 5-7<br />

as HF 2-3 3-3 2-3 1-5<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 1-0 1-0<br />

as AF 0-1 1-0 0-3 1-1<br />

as AD 3-1 2-1 0-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 6-1 5-3 1-6 4-3<br />

vs Non Conf 0-4 2-2 4-1 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 1-3 3-2 2-3 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 2-1 1-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 5-1 4-2 2-4 2-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-1 4-2 2-4 2-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 2-10, 1-7 (#7 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #95 - #112<br />

SOS: #40 Adjusted Off – Def: #73 - #94<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #65<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #92 (61.5)<br />

Purdue<br />

The Boilermakers in ’16<br />

HC here: Darrell Hazell – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.6*, DEF-8.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #76<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.0% 18.6% 47.0% 26.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Purdue is 1-10 ATS as a HD<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a home game (s’/ 10/1/11) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-110)<br />

2015 4.5 (-145) 2-10 und<br />

2014 3.5 (+100) 3-9 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+175) 1-11 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -11.4 (25.1-36.5) -90.4 (369-459) 77-75 4.8-6.1 -5<br />

’15 conf only -14.6 (22.5-37.1) -125.2 (342-467) 75-73 4.5-6.5 -4<br />

2014 All -7.8 (23.8-31.7) -71.4 (345-416) 70-75 5.0-5.6 -5<br />

’14 conf only -11.0 (22.1-33.1) -93.0 (341-434) 68-76 5.1-5.7 -3<br />

2013 All -23.1 (14.9-38.0) -177.0 (283-460) 62-74 4.6-6.2 -2<br />

’13 conf only -26.2 (13.0-39.2) -241.2 (258-500) 59-77 4.4-6.5 2<br />

2012 All -2.5 (28.7-31.2) -13.2 (403-416) 74-73 5.5-5.7 -2<br />

’12 conf only -9.5 (23.6-33.1) -56.8 (377-434) 71-73 5.3-5.9 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

56% 92% 78% 65% 87% 100% 64%<br />

There are only a handful of Power-5 programs that would keep a HC<br />

who took over a 6-7 program 3 years ago and has produced just SIX<br />

wins in 3 seasons (6-30). That is the case here as head coach Darrell<br />

Hazell enters <strong>2016</strong> on the hot seat.<br />

Purdue loses one of their 2 QB’s from last season but returning is David<br />

Blough who won the job after a few games but was injured late in the<br />

season. The top 3 RB’s all join him back as does their #1 receiver and<br />

7 of their top 8 pass catchers. The OL suffers the other 2 losses but<br />

they still return 82 career starts.<br />

The defense struggled down the stretch last year as they allowed 42<br />

ppg their last 5 games. This year the Boilermakers only have to replace<br />

three starters but two of those players were multi-year starting CB’s.<br />

Last season Purdue allowed 62.3% with those experienced cover men<br />

so expect teams to pass against them often.<br />

The non-conference schedule is manageable but the Big Ten schedule<br />

includes 4 home games against teams who were a <strong>com</strong>bined 24-8 in<br />

conference play last year (most winnable games on road).<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat EKU<br />

9/10 Sat Cincinnati<br />

9/24 Sat Nevada<br />

10/1 Sat at Maryland<br />

10/8 Sat at Illinois<br />

10/15 Sat Iowa<br />

10/22 Sat at Nebraska<br />

10/29 Sat Penn St<br />

11/5 Sat at Minnesota<br />

11/12 Sat Northwestern<br />

11/19 Sat Wisconsin<br />

11/26 Sat at Indiana<br />

open<br />

Boilermakers are 7-0-2 ATS as<br />

an AF off a HD loss (s’/ 11/10/90)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 6-7 1-11 3-9 2-10<br />

Home 4-3 1-6 2-5 2-5<br />

Away 2-3 0-5 1-3 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 4-8 6-6 6-6<br />

HF 3-1 0-1 1-2 1-0<br />

HD 0-2 2-4 1-3 1-5<br />

AF 0-2 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 3-0 2-3 3-1 4-1<br />

vs Conf 3-5 3-5 4-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 3-2 1-3 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 3-7 5-3 6-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 2-6 4-3 4-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-4 1-0 1-2 0-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-4 1-0 1-2 0-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 6-6 6-6 7-5<br />

as HF 3-0 0-1 2-1 0-1<br />

as HD 0-2 3-3 2-2 5-1<br />

as AF 1-1 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 1-2 3-2 2-2 2-3<br />

vs Conf 4-4 4-4 4-4 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-2 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-2 5-5 3-5 4-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 3-5 3-4 2-4<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 1-0 2-1 2-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 1-0 2-1 2-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 4-8, 1-7 (T #6-#7 BigTen-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #84 - #113<br />

SOS: #56 Adjusted Off – Def: #58 - #118<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #56<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #82 (65.0)<br />

Rutgers<br />

The Scarlet Knights in ’16<br />

HC here: Chris Ash – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-6.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #75<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.6% 19.3% 40.2% 26.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Scarlet Knights are 6-2 to Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the OVER as an AD the L2Y <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-125)<br />

2015 5 (-145) 4-8 und<br />

2014 4.5 (+165) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 6.5 (+110) 6-6 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -7.8 (27.1-34.9) -85.0 (377-462) 67-67 5.6-6.9 -2<br />

’15 conf only -20.5 (21.2-41.8) -166.9 (339-506) 67-69 5.1-7.3 1<br />

2014 All -3.5 (26.7-30.2) -52.8 (390-443) 65-69 6.0-6.4 -2<br />

’14 conf only -14.0 (20.8-34.8) -105.9 (345-450) 65-69 5.3-6.6 -5<br />

2013 All -3.2 (26.5-29.8) -47.6 (365-413) 69-73 5.3-5.7 -12<br />

’13 conf only -11.0 (23.0-34.0) -84.3 (359-443) 71-70 5.0-6.3 -9<br />

2012 All 7.3 (21.5-14.2) 18.3 (330-312) 63-68 5.2-4.6 10<br />

’12 conf only 6.0 (19.0-13.0) 2.4 (325-323) 62-67 5.2-4.8 10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 72% 64% 80% 88% 10% 93%<br />

After a disastrous on and off-field 2015 season, the Scarlet Knights<br />

decided to bring in former Ohio State DC Chris Ash as they try to<br />

replicate what Houston did with former OSU OC Tom Herman last<br />

year. Ash also then hired Herman’s WR coach from LY as his OC.<br />

If you look at Rutgers scoring average you’ll see that it has increased<br />

each of the last 4 seasons despite having a new OC each year, with this<br />

being the fifth straight season. The offense which finished #58 in the<br />

adjusted numbers only has to replace one OL and one receiver<br />

although he was their best player and was a 3 rd round draft choice.<br />

The defense however has to replace all 3 starting LB’s which happened<br />

to be the team’s top 3 tacklers last season including Steve Longa who<br />

was only the 2 nd player in school history to have 3 straight 100 tackle<br />

seasons. The DL looks like a team strength as they return 7 of the top<br />

8 while secondary should be improved after an injury plagued season.<br />

The schedule will see the Scarlet Knights huge underdogs in 4 of their<br />

first 6 games and they figure to be favored in only 4 games. They will<br />

most likely miss out on a bowl game for the 2 nd straight season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at Washington<br />

9/10 Sat Howard<br />

9/17 Sat New Mexico<br />

9/24 Sat Iowa<br />

10/1 Sat at Ohio St<br />

10/8 Sat Michigan<br />

10/15 Sat Illinois<br />

10/22 Sat at Minnesota<br />

11/5 Sat Indiana<br />

11/12 Sat at Michigan St<br />

11/19 Sat Penn St<br />

11/26 Sat at Maryland<br />

open<br />

Rutgers has covered 8 of their<br />

last 10 versus non-conf foes.<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-4 6-7 8-5 4-8<br />

Home 4-2 5-2 4-2 2-5<br />

Away 5-1 1-4 2-3 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-6 5-8 7-5 4-7<br />

HF 3-3 2-4 2-2 1-1<br />

HD 0-0 0-1 1-1 1-3<br />

AF 1-1 0-2 0-0 1-0<br />

AD 3-1 2-1 2-2 1-3<br />

vs Conf 5-2 2-5 3-4 2-6<br />

Non Conf 2-4 3-3 4-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-2 1-5 3-1 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 1-4 2-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 3-3 3-4 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 3-3 3-4 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 3-9 5-8 7-5 7-5<br />

as HF 1-4 2-4 3-1 2-1<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 0-2 2-2<br />

as AF 1-1 1-1 0-0 0-1<br />

as AD 1-3 1-2 3-1 3-1<br />

vs Conf 1-6 3-4 5-3 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 2-3 2-4 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-3 1-5 3-1 3-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 1-4 3-1 2-3<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 3-3 3-4 3-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 3-3 3-4 3-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (T #2-#3 BigTen-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #79 - #2<br />

SOS: #68 Adjusted Off – Def: #53 - #13<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #40<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #24 (80.7)<br />

Wisconsin<br />

The Badgers in ’16<br />

HC here: Paul Chryst – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.8, DEF-6.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #32<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

12.3% 23.2% 26.7% 37.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Wisconsin’s Defense was #1 in Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the FBS LY allowing 13.7 PPG <strong>2016</strong> 7 (-110)<br />

2015 10 (+160) 9-3 und<br />

2014 9.5 (-150) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (-210) 9-3 OV<br />

2012 9.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 13.1 (26.8-13.7) 110.1 (379-269) 72-61 5.3-4.4 3<br />

’15 conf only 9.4 (24.2-14.9) 107.5 (362-255) 73-61 5.0-4.2 -1<br />

2014 All 13.8 (34.6-20.8) 174.8 (469-294) 69-60 6.8-4.9 -9<br />

’14 conf only 10.2 (32.7-22.4) 157.8 (451-293) 67-62 6.7-4.8 -6<br />

2013 All 18.5 (34.8-16.3) 175.8 (481-305) 70-65 6.9-4.7 1<br />

’13 conf only 18.8 (34.9-16.1) 175.8 (471-296) 70-62 6.7-4.8 1<br />

2012 All 10.4 (29.6-19.1) 70.7 (393-323) 66-67 6.0-4.8 3<br />

’12 conf only 15.2 (34.9-19.7) 120.6 (439-319) 68-68 6.4-4.7 8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

9% 82% 49% 63% 81% 77% 44%<br />

Paul Chryst returned to Wisconsin last year and did an admirable job<br />

getting the Badgers to 10 wins for the 5 th time in the last 7 years<br />

(although UW was favored in 11 of their 12 regular season games).<br />

On offense, the QB battle will not be settled until the summer as they<br />

do have to replace a 3.5-year starter at QB. However, Joel Stave had a<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined 20-21 ratio the last 2 seasons. The top 3 RB’s are back as are<br />

4 of the top 5 receivers and RB Corey Clement should be much<br />

healthier. The OL returns 4 starters and should be much improved<br />

after the Badgers averaged just 150 rush ypg (lowest since 1995).<br />

After ranking No. 1 in the country in scoring defense last year, the<br />

Badgers return 15 of their top 20 tacklers. They do lose All-American<br />

LB Joe Schobert and 1 st -team All-Big Ten CB Michael Caputo. One<br />

other major loss to mention is DC Dave Aranda.<br />

Speaking of Aranda, the Badgers must face him and his new team LSU<br />

in the opener (at Lambeau). The Badgers also pull Michigan, Michigan<br />

State and Ohio State all from the Big Ten East and could find<br />

themselves an underdog in at least 5 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) LSU<br />

9/10 Sat Akron<br />

9/17 Sat Georgia St<br />

9/24 Sat at Michigan St<br />

10/1 Sat at Michigan<br />

10/15 Sat Ohio St<br />

10/22 Sat at Iowa<br />

10/29 Sat Nebraska<br />

11/5 Sat at Northwestern<br />

11/12 Sat Illinois<br />

11/19 Sat at Purdue<br />

11/26 Sat Minnesota<br />

open<br />

UW is 1-5 ATS after scoring 40 or<br />

more pts (s’/ 11/01/13)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-6 9-4 11-3 10-3<br />

Home 5-2 6-1 7-0 5-2<br />

Away 2-3 3-2 3-1 4-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-8 9-3 6-7 7-6<br />

HF 2-5 6-1 3-4 3-4<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 1-1 2-1 2-2 3-1<br />

AD 1-1 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 6-3 5-2 4-5 4-4<br />

Non Conf 0-5 4-1 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 2-1 1-2 3-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 6-2 5-5 4-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 6-2 5-5 4-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 5-8 7-5 5-8<br />

as HF 2-4 2-5 5-2 2-5<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-1 1-2 0-3 2-2<br />

as AD 1-0 1-1 0-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 5-3 3-5 5-3 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 2-3 2-2 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 2-1 1-1 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-4 3-6 5-4 2-7<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-4 3-6 5-4 2-7


2015 FINAL Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

TEAM W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Oklahoma 11 2 84.6% 43.5 22.0 8 1 88.9%<br />

Texas Christian 11 2 84.6% 42.1 27.2 7 2 77.8%<br />

Oklahoma State 10 3 76.9% 39.5 30.5 7 2 77.8%<br />

Baylor 10 3 76.9% 48.1 28.3 6 3 66.7%<br />

West Virginia 8 5 61.5% 34.0 24.6 4 5 44.4%<br />

Texas Tech 7 6 53.8% 45.1 43.6 4 5 44.4%<br />

Texas 5 7 41.7% 26.4 30.3 4 5 44.4%<br />

Kansas State 6 7 46.2% 29.9 31.5 3 6 33.3%<br />

Iowa State 3 9 25.0% 25.0 32.7 2 7 22.2%<br />

Kansas 0 12 0.0% 15.3 46.1 0 9 0.0%<br />

BRAD POWERS’<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

4 Oklahoma 93.86<br />

19 Baylor 84.95<br />

22 TCU 84.76<br />

24 Oklahoma St 84.60<br />

28 Texas 83.42<br />

39 West Virginia 79.63<br />

49 Kansas St 76.42<br />

52 Texas Tech 75.33<br />

73 Iowa State 69.65<br />

103 Kansas 59.57


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-3 (#4 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9 DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #1 - #63<br />

SOS: #8 Adjusted Off – Def: #10 - #28<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #36<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #10 (86.6)<br />

Baylor<br />

The Bears in ’16<br />

HC here: Jim Grobe – 1 st (interim)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.5*, DEF-5.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2* - #17*<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

1.1% 22.1% 34.7% 42.1%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bears are 0-7 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a win as an AD (s’/ 9/20/97) <strong>2016</strong> 9.5 (+100)<br />

2015 10 (-120) 9-3 Und<br />

2014 9.5 (-160) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 7.5 (-175) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 19.8 (48.1-28.3) 219.7 (616-397) 85-76 7.3-5.2 0<br />

’15 conf only 13.7 (42.7-29.0) 137.8 (550-413) 84-78 6.5-5.3 -1<br />

2014 All 22.7 (48.2-25.5) 199.6 (581-382) 88-72 6.6-5.3 13<br />

’14 conf only 16.1 (45.3-29.2) 140.4 (557-417) 90-73 6.2-5.7 11<br />

2013 All 28.8 (52.4-23.5) 258.5 (619-360) 83-76 7.5-4.8 13<br />

’13 conf only 22.1 (47.8-25.7) 222.5 (582-360) 84-75 6.9-4.8 5<br />

2012 All 7.2 (44.5-37.2) 70.0 (572-502) 82-83 6.9-6.1 2<br />

’12 conf only 0.7 (41.7-41.0) 61.1 (582-521) 84-82 6.9-6.3 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

58% 79% 40% 22% 21% 73% 74%<br />

Baylor football was clearly the main story this past off-season but not<br />

for the right reasons. After parting ways with Art Briles the Bears hired<br />

Jim Grobe as their interim HC on May 30th. Grobe was the Wake<br />

Forest HC from 2001-2013. He has some big shoes to fill considering<br />

the Bears have averaged 10 wins per season the last 5 years.<br />

The positive news for Baylor is that Seth Russell returns at QB after<br />

missing the last 6 games a year ago. When he was injured he led the<br />

nation is passing efficiency. Behind him are a pair or RB’s which each<br />

topped 1,000 yards rushing last year but unfortunately they’ll only<br />

have one starting OL back to open up holes (144 career starts lost). At<br />

receiver they do lose their top player to the NFL.<br />

The defense has to replace all 3 starters on the DL including a pair of<br />

All-Big 12 performers. The LB corps returns 5 of their top 6 while the<br />

secondary returns 7 of their top 9.<br />

The non-conference schedule is weak, as usual and with key games<br />

against Oklahoma State and TCU at home, the Bears despite all the<br />

turmoil could find themselves favored in 10 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Northwestern St<br />

9/10 Sat SMU<br />

9/16 Fri at Rice<br />

9/24 Sat Oklahoma St<br />

10/1 Sat at Iowa St<br />

10/15 Sat Kansas<br />

10/29 Sat at Texas<br />

11/5 Sat TCU<br />

11/12 Sat at Oklahoma<br />

11/19 Sat Kansas St<br />

11/25 Fri (N) Texas Tech<br />

12/3 Sat at West Virginia<br />

open<br />

Baylor is 7-0 ATS as a DOG after<br />

being a favorite (s’/11/19/11)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 11-2 11-2 10-3<br />

Home 5-1 7-0 6-0 4-2<br />

Away 1-4 3-1 4-1 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-4 9-4 7-6 6-7<br />

HF 2-2 7-0 4-2 2-4<br />

HD 2-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-1 1-3 2-2 2-3<br />

AD 3-1 0-0 1-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 7-2 6-3 4-5 4-5<br />

Non Conf 2-2 3-1 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 0-1 1-0 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 0-1 1-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-2 8-3 5-6 4-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-2 8-3 5-6 4-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-4 9-4 8-5 8-5<br />

as HF 2-1 5-2 4-2 4-2<br />

as HD 1-1 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-0 2-2 2-2 2-3<br />

as AD 2-1 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-4 5-4 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 4-0 3-1 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 1-0 1-0 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 1-0 1-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-2 7-4 7-4 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-2 7-4 7-4 5-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 0-12, 0-9 (#10 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF 3*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #116 - #129<br />

SOS: #51 Adjusted Off – Def: #118 - #115<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #74<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #117 (49.3)<br />

Kansas<br />

The Jayhawks in ’16<br />

HC here: David Beatty – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.6*, DEF-7.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #84<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

23.9% 9.8% 37.1% 29.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Jayhawks are 12-4 to<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the UNDER as an AD the L3Y <strong>2016</strong> 1.5 (-110)<br />

2015 1.5 (-260) 0-12 und<br />

2014 3 (-155) 3-9 push<br />

2013 3.5 (-120) 3-9 und<br />

2012 3.5 (n/a) 1-11 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -30.8 (15.2-46.1) -229.3 (332-561) 75-81 4.4-7.0 -7<br />

’15 conf only -35.8 (12.0-47.8) -266.9 (300-567) 73-81 4.1-7.0 -10<br />

2014 All -15.4 (17.8-33.2) -129.1 (324-453) 70-72 4.6-6.3 3<br />

’14 conf only -18.6 (17.0-35.6) -162.4 (307-470) 69-74 4.4-6.3 0<br />

2013 All -16.5 (15.3-31.8) -138.1 (295-433) 69-74 4.3-5.8 1<br />

’13 conf only -23.2 (14.0-37.2) -179.4 (275-455) 68-74 4.1-6.1 0<br />

2012 All -17.8 (18.2-36.1) -121.5 (360-482) 73-71 5.0-6.8 -3<br />

’12 conf only -24.4 (15.7-40.1) -143.2 (358-501) 72-69 5.0-7.2 -7<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 56% 55% 63% 39% 88% 87%<br />

Kansas enters this season with 15 straight losses and they have gotten<br />

outgained in 14 straight versus FBS. Incredibly, they haven’t won a<br />

road game since 2009 (have lost 35 straight). However, they are in<br />

much better shape in year 2 under David Beaty (had just 6 returning<br />

starters last year).<br />

Last year Kansas lost their projected starting QB in the spring so a<br />

freshman and sophomore split time and both are back. They also<br />

return their leading rusher and 7 of their top 9 receivers. However,<br />

they do lose their leading receiver as well as their most productive TE.<br />

The OL had 9 players which made at least 4 starts and 6 are back<br />

including 3 returning starters.<br />

There’s only one way your defense can go when you gave up the most<br />

points per game (46.1) and the most yards per game (561) in the<br />

country. The unit only loses 3 starters, two on the DL and a safety but<br />

one of the losses was their top pass rusher. Still they return their top<br />

5 tacklers and 9 of their top 10 in the secondary.<br />

The schedule will give the Jayhawks an opportunity to gain confidence<br />

right away as they are a big favorite vs Rhode Island and also host Ohio<br />

(pick-em) in week 2. They also host Iowa State in conference play.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Rhode Island<br />

9/10 Sat Ohio<br />

9/17 Sat at Memphis<br />

9/29 Thu at Texas Tech<br />

10/8 Sat TCU<br />

10/15 Sat at Baylor<br />

10/22 Sat Oklahoma St<br />

10/29 Sat at Oklahoma<br />

11/5 Sat at West Virginia<br />

11/12 Sat Iowa St<br />

11/19 Sat Texas<br />

11/26 Sat at Kansas St<br />

open<br />

Kansas is 8-0 ATS after a win as<br />

an AF (since/ Oct 3, 1998)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 1-11 3-9 3-9 0-12<br />

Home 1-5 3-4 3-3 0-7<br />

Away 0-6 0-5 0-6 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 4-8 5-6 2-9<br />

HF 0-2 0-2 1-1 0-0<br />

HD 3-1 2-3 3-1 1-6<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 2-4 2-3 1-4 1-3<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-5 4-4 2-7<br />

Non Conf 1-2 0-3 1-2 0-2<br />

Off SU Loss 5-5 4-4 4-3 2-8<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-1 4-3 4-2 2-6<br />

Off SU Win 0-1 0-3 1-2 0-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-1 0-3 1-2 0-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-6 5-7 4-8 6-6<br />

as HF 0-1 1-1 1-1 0-0<br />

as HD 1-3 4-1 1-3 4-3<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 3-2 0-5 2-4 2-3<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-5 3-6 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 0-1 1-2 1-2 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-5 3-5 2-6 5-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 3-4 2-4 4-5<br />

Off SU Win 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-1 1-2 1-2 0-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 3-6 (#8 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #114 - #107<br />

SOS: #47 Adjusted Off – Def: #57 - #79<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #55<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #42 (75.7)<br />

Kansas St<br />

The Wildcats in ’16<br />

HC here: Bill Snyder – 8 th / 25 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.1, DEF-6.4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #73<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

16.4% 14.7% 28.0% 40.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Wildcats are 15-4 ATS as a HF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

off a loss as a dog (s’/11/5/92) <strong>2016</strong> 5.5 (-125)<br />

2015 7 (-130) 6-6 und<br />

2014 7.5 (-140) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (+155) 7-5 und<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 11-1 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -1.5 (29.9-31.5) -118.5 (334-452) 67-72 5.0-6.2 -3<br />

’15 conf only -7.2 (29.2-36.4) -153.6 (331-485) 70-73 4.7-6.6 -4<br />

2014 All 12.6 (35.8-23.2) 52.3 (422-369) 69-68 6.2-5.5 8<br />

’14 conf only 11.8 (33.7-21.9) 53.0 (433-380) 67-69 6.5-5.5 12<br />

2013 All 10.3 (33.2-22.9) 43.8 (403-359) 64-71 6.3-5.1 0<br />

’13 conf only 7.7 (32.8-25.1) 26.5 (398-372) 65-72 6.2-5.1 2<br />

2012 All 16.7 (38.8-22.2) 26.1 (401-375) 65-70 6.2-5.4 19<br />

’12 conf only 15.6 (38.9-23.3) 12.2 (397-385) 65-70 6.1-5.5 19<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

80% 90% 59% 26% 62% 100% 55%<br />

You don’t expect a bowl team to have gotten outgained against every<br />

Power-5 team they faced (they did outgain 0-12 Kansas, but that was<br />

only by 48 yards). Overall, the Wildcats were outgained by 154 yards<br />

per game in Big 12 play but Hall of Fame head coach Bill Snyder<br />

somehow managed to get them into a bowl game.<br />

This year the offense returns their starter at QB but he could get<br />

supplanted by last year’s projected starter who was out for the year in<br />

week 1. While the leading rusher is back, they do lose 4 multi-year OL<br />

starters with a hefty 130 <strong>com</strong>bined career starts (just 17 career starts<br />

return). The receiving unit returns two of their top 3.<br />

The defense must replace a pair of starters from the DL and the<br />

secondary. However, they have plenty of depth on the DL as 6 of the<br />

top 8 are back and overall, the defense returns their top 5 tacklers (3<br />

of them were LB’s).<br />

The Wildcats open up the season as big underdogs at Stanford and<br />

despite the fact they have to play at Oklahoma, Baylor and TCU, they<br />

figure to remain in bowl contention for a 7 th straight season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri at Stanford<br />

9/17 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

9/24 Sat Missouri St<br />

10/1 Sat at West Virginia<br />

10/8 Sat Texas Tech<br />

10/15 Sat at Oklahoma<br />

10/22 Sat Texas<br />

10/29 Sat at Iowa St<br />

11/5 Sat Oklahoma St<br />

11/19 Sat at Baylor<br />

11/26 Sat Kansas<br />

12/3 Sat at TCU<br />

open<br />

Kansas St is 10-1 ATS away<br />

after a win an AF (s’/11/1/97)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 8-5 9-4 6-7<br />

Home 7-0 5-3 6-1 4-3<br />

Away 4-1 2-2 3-2 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-3 8-5 8-5 6-7<br />

HF 6-1 3-4 5-1 0-3<br />

HD 0-0 1-0 1-0 3-1<br />

AF 1-1 1-0 0-1 2-0<br />

AD 2-0 2-1 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 7-1 6-3 6-3 5-4<br />

Non Conf 2-2 2-2 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-0 5-0 2-1 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 3-0 1-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 7-3 3-4 6-3 4-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 7-3 3-4 6-3 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 5-8 8-5 8-4<br />

as HF 6-0 3-4 4-2 2-0<br />

as HD 0-0 0-1 0-1 2-2<br />

as AF 1-2 0-1 1-0 1-1<br />

as AD 0-2 2-1 2-2 2-1<br />

vs Conf 5-4 4-5 5-4 6-3<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 1-3 3-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-0 2-3 2-1 4-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 1-2 1-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 6-5 3-4 5-4 4-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-5 3-4 5-4 4-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 2-7 (#9 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #58 - #109<br />

SOS: #17 Adjusted Off – Def: #60 - #71<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #66<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #79 (65.4)<br />

Iowa St<br />

The Cyclones in ’16<br />

HC here: Matt Campbell – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-3.7*, DEF-7.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #53<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

12.9% 20.8% 29.9% 36.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Cyclones are 6-1 to the<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

OVER off a SU win the L3Y <strong>2016</strong> 3.5 (+100)<br />

2015 3 (-140) 3-9 push<br />

2014 3.5 (-140) 2-10 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+175) 3-9 und<br />

2012 4.5 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -7.7 (25.0-32.7) -45.1 (408-453) 76-74 5.4-6.2 -11<br />

’15 conf only -10.6 (25.4-36.0) -61.8 (422-484) 77-75 5.5-6.4 -11<br />

2014 All -15.7 (23.2-38.8) -156.4 (373-529) 76-81 4.9-6.5 0<br />

’14 conf only -19.8 (23.0-42.8) -190.5 (381-571) 78-84 4.9-6.8 1<br />

2013 All -11.2 (24.8-36.0) -100.1 (363-463) 75-77 4.8-6.1 -1<br />

’13 conf only -15.2 (24.3-39.6) -128.3 (355-483) 75-77 4.7-6.3 -5<br />

2012 All 0.6 (24.5-23.9) -78.0 (364-442) 71-77 5.1-5.7 0<br />

’12 conf only -3.3 (24.2-27.6) -146.6 (353-500) 69-79 5.1-6.3 5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

46% 81% 53% 22% 67% 78% 66%<br />

After 6 straight losing seasons, Paul Rhoads was shown the door at the<br />

end of last year and the Cylcones made a great hire bringing in Matt<br />

Campbell from Toledo (35-15).<br />

On offense, the Cyclones return one of their two QB’s from last season<br />

and after a 10-4 ratio last year the job is Joel Lanning’s to lose in the<br />

fall. Sophomore RB Mike Warren averaged 131 yards per game and<br />

6.0 ypc in his last 10 games of 2015 while Iowa State also wel<strong>com</strong>es<br />

back their top receiver. The OL is another matter for the new head<br />

coach as only one starter returns (just 25 career starts).<br />

The defense returns in good shape but they did recently lose their 3 rd<br />

leading tackler (a LB) this summer. The DL loses their top sack man but<br />

the secondary returns their leading tacklers and 5 players who started<br />

at least 6 games last year.<br />

The schedule, like usual for the Cyclones is very difficult as they must<br />

play road games at Iowa, TCU, Oklahoma State and Texas in the first<br />

half of the season. They do have several winnable home games and<br />

could top 3 wins for the first time since 2012.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat UNI<br />

9/10 Sat at Iowa<br />

9/17 Sat at TCU<br />

9/24 Sat San Jose St<br />

10/1 Sat Baylor<br />

10/8 Sat at Oklahoma St<br />

10/15 Sat at Texas<br />

10/29 Sat Kansas St<br />

11/3 Thu Oklahoma<br />

11/12 Sat at Kansas<br />

11/19 Sat Texas Tech<br />

11/26 Sat West Virginia<br />

open<br />

Iowa St is 7-0 ATS as a FAV after<br />

a loss as an AD (Oct 22, 2005)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 6-7 3-9 2-10 3-9<br />

Home 3-4 1-5 1-6 3-3<br />

Away 3-2 2-4 1-4 0-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-6 6-6 5-6 6-6<br />

HF 1-0 1-1 1-2 2-0<br />

HD 1-3 2-2 2-2 2-2<br />

AF 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AD 2-2 3-3 2-1 2-4<br />

vs Conf 3-5 5-4 3-5 5-4<br />

Non Conf 2-1 1-2 2-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 4-5 3-5 5-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 2-2 2-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 2-0 2-0 0-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 2-0 2-0 0-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-8 7-4 5-7 4-7<br />

as HF 0-1 0-2 1-2 0-1<br />

as HD 2-3 2-1 3-1 1-3<br />

as AF 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

as AD 1-3 5-1 1-3 3-3<br />

vs Conf 3-6 6-3 4-5 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 1-1 1-2 0-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 5-3 3-6 2-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-3 2-4 1-4<br />

Off SU Win 1-4 2-0 2-0 2-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-4 2-0 2-0 2-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 11-2, 8-1 (#1 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #7 - #39<br />

SOS: #7 Adjusted Off – Def: #12 - #15<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #14<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #5 (90.1)<br />

Oklahoma<br />

The Sooners in ’16<br />

HC here: Bob Stoops – 18 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.6*, DEF-6.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #22<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.5% 22.8% 33.7% 33.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Sooners are 0-8-1 ATS as an AF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a road win (s’/ 1/1/88) <strong>2016</strong> 10 (-110)<br />

2015 9 (-110) 11-1 OV<br />

2014 10.5 (-110) 8-4 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+160) 10-2 OV<br />

2012 10 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 21.5 (43.5-22.0) 165.8 (530-364) 78-76 6.8-4.8 9<br />

’15 conf only 26.8 (47.2-20.4) 192.2 (539-347) 77-74 7.0-4.7 14<br />

2014 All 10.5 (36.4-25.9) 82.1 (465-383) 73-74 6.4-5.1 -5<br />

’14 conf only 7.7 (37.0-29.3) 66.1 (477-411) 74-74 6.5-5.6 -4<br />

2013 All 10.8 (32.8-22.1) 72.8 (423-350) 72-65 5.8-5.4 9<br />

’13 conf only 5.2 (29.1-23.9) 39.9 (398-358) 70-67 5.7-5.4 1<br />

2012 All 12.7 (38.2-25.5) 99.5 (498-398) 77-70 6.4-5.7 -4<br />

’12 conf only 15.2 (41.9-26.7) 105.6 (511-406) 78-73 6.6-5.6 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

92% 92% 54% 49% 73% 28% 75%<br />

It’s been a <strong>com</strong>mon theme for the Sooners that when expectations are<br />

high, they falter. The last 4 times they’ve been in the preseason Top 5,<br />

they haven’t finished in the Top 15. However, when expectations are<br />

low like they were last year (preseason #19), they surprise (finished<br />

#5). This year they are the prohibitive favorite in the Big 12.<br />

Baker Mayfield certainly enjoyed his new OC, Lincoln Riley as he was<br />

No. 1 among Power-5 players in TD responsible for (minus) TO’s with<br />

36. Samaje Perine (1349, 6.0) and Joe Mixon (753, 6.7) form arguably<br />

the best 1-2 punch at RB in the country. The Soonerd do lose their star<br />

WR Sterling Shepard and the OL also loses their top two players.<br />

The DL loses their top player but return their next top 5 guys. The<br />

cause for concern is in the LB unit which loses 5 of their top 6 including<br />

a pair of All-Big 12 performers. The secondary is strong with 3 full-time<br />

starters back as they return 9 of their top 11.<br />

The Sooners must play a pair of non-conference teams that won major<br />

bowls last year in Houston and Ohio State. Still, OU could be favored<br />

in every game with a road trip to TCU being their most difficult.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Houston<br />

9/10 Sat UL Monroe<br />

9/17 Sat Ohio St<br />

10/1 Sat at TCU<br />

10/8 Sat (N) Texas<br />

10/15 Sat Kansas St<br />

10/22 Sat at Texas Tech<br />

10/29 Sat Kansas<br />

11/3 Thu at Iowa St<br />

11/12 Sat Baylor<br />

11/19 Sat at West Virginia<br />

12/3 Sat Oklahoma St<br />

open<br />

Oklahoma is 10-0 ATS after a<br />

loss as a dog (since/ 10/23/99)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-3 11-2 8-5 11-2<br />

Home 4-2 6-0 3-3 6-0<br />

Away 5-0 4-1 4-1 5-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 8-5 5-8 9-4<br />

HF 2-4 4-2 2-4 4-2<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 3-2 1-1 3-2 3-0<br />

AD 0-0 2-1 0-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 4-5 3-6 7-2<br />

Non Conf 1-3 4-0 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 1-1 1-3 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 1-1 0-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-6 6-4 4-4 7-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-6 6-4 4-4 7-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-5 9-4 8-5<br />

as HF 2-2 3-3 3-3 4-2<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 3-2 2-0 5-0 3-0<br />

as AD 0-0 1-1 0-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 6-2 4-4 7-2 7-2<br />

vs Non Conf 0-3 3-1 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 2-0 3-1 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 2-0 1-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-4 5-4 5-3 7-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-4 5-4 5-3 7-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 7-2 (T #2-#3 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #22 - #101<br />

SOS: #38 Adjusted Off – Def: #21 - #42<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #39<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #23 (81.2)<br />

Oklahoma St<br />

The Cowboys in ’16<br />

HC here: Mike Gundy – 12 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.9*, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #44<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

0.7% 32.9% 47.9% 18.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Cowboys are 3-9 ATS as Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

an AF the last 4 seasons<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-120)<br />

2015 7 (-190) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-115) 6-6 und<br />

2013 10.5 (+170) 10-2 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 9.1 (39.5-30.5) 40.9 (480-439) 75-77 6.4-5.7 13<br />

’15 conf only 6.2 (41.0-34.8) 10.9 (483-472) 77-80 6.3-5.9 7<br />

2014 All -3.6 (27.6-31.2) -53.2 (379-432) 70-75 5.4-5.8 -8<br />

’14 conf only -10.7 (23.9-34.6) -117.8 (348-466) 68-78 5.1-5.9 -9<br />

2013 All 17.5 (39.1-21.6) 63.8 (449-385) 76-81 5.9-4.8 15<br />

’13 conf only 15.8 (37.9-22.1) 40.4 (425-384) 74-81 5.7-4.8 11<br />

2012 All 17.5 (45.7-28.2) 125.3 (547-422) 78-80 7.0-5.3 0<br />

’12 conf only 8.8 (38.8-30.0) 47.6 (503-455) 75-82 6.7-5.6 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

83% 58% 72% 91% 53% 77% 71%<br />

Mike Gundy has a done a great job in Stillwater leading the Cowboys<br />

to 4 double-digit win seasons in the last 6 years. This year’s team could<br />

be poised to make yet another run at a Big 12 Championship.<br />

Last season QB Mason Rudolph split time with JW Walsh and the two<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined for a 34-10 ratio but Walsh only threw 1 of those 10 int’s<br />

and departs this year. The top 2 RB’s return but it will not be a surprise<br />

if another Sanders (Barry Jr. from Stanford) leads the Cowboys is<br />

rushing. The receiving corps does lose its #2 and #4 but of the top 7<br />

from last season, 5 are back. The OL wel<strong>com</strong>es back all 5 starters that<br />

have a <strong>com</strong>bined 101 career starts.<br />

The DL takes the biggest hit by far as both DE’s are gone including the<br />

#32 pick in the draft (Emmanuel Ogbah). The duo <strong>com</strong>bined for 28 of<br />

the unit’s 47.5 TFL’s and 18.5 of the unit’s 28 sacks. Only one LB starter<br />

departs but they do lose their best DB in Kevin Peterson.<br />

The schedule sees them play the top 3 Big 12 teams (Oklahoma, TCU<br />

and Baylor) all on the road but the Cowboys could be favored in every<br />

other game meaning 10 wins is possible yet again.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat SE Louisiana<br />

9/10 Sat Central Mich<br />

9/17 Sat Pittsburgh<br />

9/24 Sat at Baylor<br />

10/1 Sat Texas<br />

10/8 Sat Iowa St<br />

10/22 Sat at Kansas<br />

10/29 Sat West Virginia<br />

11/5 Sat at Kansas St<br />

11/12 Sat Texas Tech<br />

11/19 Sat at TCU<br />

12/3 Sat at Oklahoma<br />

open<br />

OSU is 1-11 ATS as an AD after<br />

being a HD (since/ Oct 30, 99)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 10-3 7-6 10-3<br />

Home 6-1 5-1 4-2 5-2<br />

Away 1-4 4-1 2-3 5-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 8-5 5-7 5-8<br />

HF 6-0 3-2 1-2 2-2<br />

HD 0-1 1-0 0-2 1-2<br />

AF 0-3 2-2 0-1 1-3<br />

AD 1-1 0-0 2-2 1-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 6-3 2-6 4-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 2-2 3-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 0-2 2-4 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 0-0 2-3 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 7-3 2-3 5-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 7-3 2-3 5-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-4 5-7 7-6 8-5<br />

as HF 3-2 1-3 3-1 3-1<br />

as HD 1-0 0-1 0-2 3-0<br />

as AF 1-2 2-2 0-1 2-2<br />

as AD 2-0 0-0 3-1 0-1<br />

vs Conf 5-4 3-5 4-5 7-2<br />

vs Non Conf 3-0 2-2 3-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 2-0 4-2 1-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 0-0 3-2 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 5-2 3-6 2-4 7-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-2 3-6 2-4 7-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 11-2, 7-2 (T #2-#3 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #3 - #64<br />

SOS: #35 Adjusted Off – Def: #28 - #23<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #42<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #7 (88.7)<br />

TCU<br />

The Horned Frogs in ’16<br />

HC here: Gary Patterson – 16 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4, DEF-7.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #23<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.3% 25.6% 14.7% 46.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Horned Frogs have covered Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

their last 7 as dogs the L3Y <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-110)<br />

2015 10 (-150) 10-2 push<br />

2014 8 (+130) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 9.5 (+180) 4-8 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 14.8 (42.1-27.2) 164.5 (563-398) 83-77 6.8-5.2 0<br />

’15 conf only 11.0 (39.0-28.0) 136.9 (553-416) 83-79 6.7-5.3 -1<br />

2014 All 27.5 (46.5-19.0) 191.2 (533-342) 80-73 6.7-4.7 18<br />

’14 conf only 22.8 (47.6-24.8) 139.2 (546-406) 79-75 6.9-5.4 12<br />

2013 All -0.2 (25.1-25.2) -11.6 (345-356) 69-74 5.0-4.8 -2<br />

’13 conf only -4.9 (20.9-25.8) -6.2 (349-355) 71-74 4.9-4.8 -7<br />

2012 All 5.7 (28.3-22.6) 64.7 (389-324) 70-66 5.5-4.9 3<br />

’12 conf only -1.0 (27.2-28.2) 33.1 (404-371) 73-67 5.5-5.5 -1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

5% 28% 52% 34% 58% 97% 66%<br />

Gary Patterson has built TCU into a national power in his 16 years and<br />

despite making the step up to the Big 12, the Horned Frogs are off<br />

back-to-back AP Top 10 finishes. This year’s team does have plenty of<br />

questions specifically on offense.<br />

The shoes of Trevone Boykin will be tough to fill and battling into the<br />

summer will be Texas A&M transfer Kenny Hill (2649, 23-8 in ’14) and<br />

Foster Saywer. The backfield also losses a 1,000-yard rusher and the<br />

receiving unit loses its leader Josh Doctson who was a first-round draft<br />

pick. The OL also lost 4 starters (117 career starts lost)!.<br />

The defense is another matter as they get back many players who<br />

missed last season due to injury. They return 4 DL who earned at least<br />

6 starts in a season and the entire LB corps returns intact. They do lose<br />

a pair of starters in the secondary.<br />

The schedule sees them with a key non-conference game against<br />

Arkansas (at home) and while they do get both Oklahoma schools at<br />

home, they have to travel to both Baylor and Texas meaning the Frogs<br />

will have to pull a few upsets to notch another Top 10 finish.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat S Dakota St<br />

9/10 Sat Arkansas<br />

9/17 Sat Iowa St<br />

9/24 Sat at SMU<br />

10/1 Sat Oklahoma<br />

10/8 Sat at Kansas<br />

10/22 Sat at West Virginia<br />

10/29 Sat Texas Tech<br />

11/5 Sat at Baylor<br />

11/19 Sat Oklahoma St<br />

11/25 Fri at Texas<br />

12/3 Sat Kansas St<br />

open<br />

TCU is 12-1 ATS after a win as<br />

an AF (since/ Oct 22, 2011)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 4-8 12-1 11-2<br />

Home 2-4 3-3 7-0 6-0<br />

Away 5-1 1-4 4-1 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-8 4-8 11-2 7-6<br />

HF 2-1 1-4 6-0 3-2<br />

HD 0-2 1-0 1-0 1-0<br />

AF 0-2 0-2 2-2 1-4<br />

AD 3-1 2-1 1-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-6 3-6 7-2 5-4<br />

Non Conf 2-2 1-2 4-0 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 2-5 1-0 1-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-0 1-3 0-0 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-6 2-2 9-2 6-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-6 2-2 9-2 6-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-8 6-6 8-5 6-7<br />

as HF 1-1 3-2 3-3 2-3<br />

as HD 0-2 1-0 1-0 0-1<br />

as AF 0-2 0-2 3-1 3-2<br />

as AD 2-2 1-2 1-0 0-1<br />

vs Conf 4-5 3-6 6-3 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 0-3 3-0 2-2 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 4-3 0-1 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 3-1 0-0 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 2-5 1-3 7-4 6-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-5 1-3 7-4 6-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 4-5 (T #5-#7 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #92 - #108<br />

SOS: #12 Adjusted Off – Def: #82 - #33<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #10<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #56 (72.3)<br />

Texas<br />

The Longhorns in ’16<br />

HC here: Charlie Strong – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.7*, DEF-7.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #11<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

29.2% 20.1% 18.9% 31.8%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Texas has gone UNDER the<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

Vegas win-total the L4Y<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-125)<br />

2015 6.5 (+130) 5-7 und<br />

2014 8.5 (+270) 6-6 und<br />

2013 9.5 (-165) 8-4 und<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 8-4 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -3.9 (26.4-30.3) -81.8 (371-453) 65-80 5.7-5.6 11<br />

’15 conf only -2.8 (25.3-28.1) -59.5 (373-433) 68-80 5.5-5.4 7<br />

2014 All -2.5 (21.4-23.8) -11.2 (337-349) 69-74 4.9-4.7 -3<br />

’14 conf only -0.2 (23.2-23.4) 19.9 (377-357) 72-74 5.3-4.8 -2<br />

2013 All 3.5 (29.3-25.8) 1.5 (409-407) 77-74 5.3-5.5 4<br />

’13 conf only 6.6 (30.4-23.9) 27.4 (400-372) 79-71 5.1-5.2 4<br />

2012 All 6.5 (35.7-29.2) 30.5 (435-404) 69-68 6.3-5.9 5<br />

’12 conf only -2.2 (31.7-33.9) -24.7 (417-441) 68-70 6.1-6.3 -3<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 81% 63% 58% 66% 68% 82%<br />

From 2001-2009, Texas won at least 10 games in every season but<br />

they’ve only reached 9 wins one time in the last 6 seasons and are<br />

<strong>com</strong>ing off back-to-back losing seasons. Clearly, head coach Charlie<br />

Strong is on the Hot Seat.<br />

The Longhorns return both QB’s which played last season, but it looks<br />

as though they’ve found their QB in freshman Shane Buechele. He will<br />

be surrounded by some experience as the Longhorns return a pair a<br />

big RB’s in Chris Warren and D’Onta Foreman and also return 3 of their<br />

top 4 receivers. Three starting OL also return (49 career starts).<br />

The back 7 of the defense losses a pair of starters including their most<br />

productive LB and most productive DB. However, sophomore LB Malik<br />

Jefferson looks poised for a breakout season and they return 11 of the<br />

top 12 in the secondary.<br />

The schedule will see them open up with Notre Dame at home and<br />

they must also play at California and at Oklahoma State in the first<br />

month (all 3 beat Texas a year ago). Pull off an upset or two early and<br />

the Horns should be looking at easily their best season under Strong.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/4 Sun Notre Dame<br />

9/10 Sat UTEP<br />

9/17 Sat at California<br />

10/1 Sat at Oklahoma St<br />

10/8 Sat (N) Oklahoma<br />

10/15 Sat Iowa St<br />

10/22 Sat at Kansas St<br />

10/29 Sat Baylor<br />

11/5 Sat at Texas Tech<br />

11/12 Sat West Virginia<br />

11/19 Sat at Kansas<br />

11/25 Fri TCU<br />

open<br />

Texas is 6-1 to the UNDER as an<br />

AD the last 3 seasons<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-4 8-5 6-7 5-7<br />

Home 4-2 4-2 3-3 3-3<br />

Away 4-1 3-2 3-1 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 6-7 7-6 6-6<br />

HF 2-4 3-2 1-1 2-1<br />

HD 0-0 0-1 1-2 2-0<br />

AF 2-1 1-2 3-0 0-1<br />

AD 1-1 1-1 0-1 1-3<br />

vs Conf 3-6 5-4 5-4 5-4<br />

Non Conf 3-1 1-3 2-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-3 2-2 4-2 4-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 2-2 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 5-3 3-5 2-4 2-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-3 3-5 2-4 2-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-5 5-8 4-9 5-7<br />

as HF 3-3 2-3 1-1 2-1<br />

as HD 0-0 0-1 1-2 1-1<br />

as AF 2-1 3-0 0-3 0-1<br />

as AD 1-1 0-2 0-1 1-3<br />

vs Conf 5-4 2-7 3-6 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-1 1-3 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-0 1-3 2-4 3-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 1-3 1-3 3-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 3-5 2-4 2-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 3-5 2-4 2-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 4-5 (T #5-#7 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #2 - #128<br />

SOS: #21 Adjusted Off – Def: #5 - #114<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #33<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #48 (74.9)<br />

Texas Tech<br />

The Red Raiders in ’16<br />

HC here: Kliff Kingsbury – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.1*, DEF-6.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #45<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

15.7% 17.1% 21.0% 46.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Red Raiders are 7-0 ATS as an Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

AD after a HD loss (S’/ 9/17/94) <strong>2016</strong> 7 (-125)<br />

2015 6 (-105) 7-5 OV<br />

2014 6.5 (-150) 4-8 und<br />

2013 7.5 (+145) 4-8 und<br />

2012 7 (n/a) 4-8 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.5 (45.1-43.6) 31.8 (579-548) 83-79 7.0-6.9 2<br />

’15 conf only -2.9 (44.0-46.9) 39.6 (596-556) 87-81 6.8-6.9 -3<br />

2014 All -10.8 (30.5-41.2) -8.6 (504-513) 76-82 6.6-6.3 -13<br />

’14 conf only -13.2 (29.6-42.8) -34.1 (506-540) 78-81 6.5-6.6 -9<br />

2013 All 5.2 (35.8-30.5) 92.5 (511-419) 87-78 5.9-5.4 -14<br />

’13 conf only -4.2 (32.6-36.8) 52.5 (491-438) 88-78 5.6-5.6 -11<br />

2012 All 5.7 (37.5-31.8) 128.5 (496-367) 76-68 6.5-5.4 -13<br />

’12 conf only -5.6 (33.6-39.1) 33.1 (469-436) 75-73 6.3-6.0 -10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

93% 38% 53% 32% 35% 29% 77%<br />

Kliff Kingsbury has had an up and down tenure in Lubbock and while<br />

last season’s offense averaged a school record 45.1 ppg, they also<br />

allowed a school-record 548 ypg and 43.6 ppg on defense.<br />

The leader of the offense returns in QB Patrick Mahomes who had a<br />

36-15 ratio last year (3-7 ratio in his first 3 road games). They do lose<br />

a rare two-time 1,000-yard rusher at RB and also have to replace their<br />

leading receiver. The OL also loses their top guys as three 3-year<br />

starters depart including a pair of all-conference players and their<br />

center (131 career starts gone and just 33 return).<br />

Last year’s extremely poor defense will have their work cut out for<br />

them again as they have to replace their top 3 DL and top 2 LB’s. There<br />

is very little depth to replace them as the front 7 starters played as<br />

much as any team in the country. The secondary must replace one CB<br />

but have 9 players back with starting experience.<br />

The schedule could see them as a favorite in 4 or 5 of their first 6<br />

games but the second half of the schedule could see them an<br />

underdog in 4 or 5 of the 6 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat SF Austin<br />

9/10 Sat at Arizona St<br />

9/17 Sat La Tech<br />

9/29 Thu Kansas<br />

10/8 Sat at Kansas St<br />

10/15 Sat West Virginia<br />

10/22 Sat Oklahoma<br />

10/29 Sat at TCU<br />

11/5 Sat Texas<br />

11/12 Sat at Oklahoma St<br />

11/19 Sat at Iowa St<br />

11/25 Fri Baylor<br />

open<br />

Texas Tech is 10-1 ATS as a HF<br />

after a win as a HF (s’/ 11/9/02)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 8-5 4-8 7-6<br />

Home 4-2 4-2 2-4 4-2<br />

Away 3-2 3-2 2-3 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 6-7 5-6 7-5<br />

HF 2-2 1-3 0-2 3-0<br />

HD 1-1 1-0 2-1 1-1<br />

AF 2-0 3-0 0-1 0-1<br />

AD 0-2 0-2 2-2 2-1<br />

vs Conf 3-6 3-6 5-3 5-4<br />

Non Conf 3-1 3-1 0-3 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-4 1-4 4-2 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 1-3 4-2 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 4-3 1-3 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 4-3 1-3 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-3 9-4 6-6 9-3<br />

as HF 1-1 3-1 2-1 3-0<br />

as HD 1-1 0-1 1-2 2-0<br />

as AF 1-1 3-0 0-1 0-1<br />

as AD 2-0 1-1 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 6-3 7-2 4-5 7-2<br />

vs Non Conf 2-0 2-2 2-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 3-2 2-5 4-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 2-2 2-4 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 5-1 5-2 3-1 5-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-1 5-2 3-1 5-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 4-5 (T #5-#7 BIG 12)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #23 - #62<br />

SOS: #33 Adjusted Off – Def: #46 - #12<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #35<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #33 (77.8)<br />

West Virginia<br />

The Mountaineers in ’16<br />

HC here: Dana Holorsen – 6 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.4*, DEF-3.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #38<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.6% 18.5% 39.2% 36.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Mountaineers are 6-0 to the<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

UNDER after a 10+ pt loss the L2Y <strong>2016</strong> 7 (-110)<br />

2015 8 (+150) 7-5 und<br />

2014 4.5 (+110) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-210) 4-8 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 9.4 (34.0-24.6) 83.2 (480-396) 81-75 5.9-5.3 9<br />

’15 conf only 1.6 (29.9-28.3) 24.3 (437-412) 81-77 5.4-5.4 2<br />

2014 All 5.8 (33.5-27.6) 100.4 (500-399) 84-74 5.9-5.4 -15<br />

’14 conf only 4.1 (31.2-27.1) 86.2 (481-395) 83-75 5.8-5.3 -12<br />

2013 All -7.0 (26.3-33.3) -44.0 (411-455) 74-77 5.5-5.9 -4<br />

’13 conf only -9.8 (27.9-37.7) -95.2 (416-511) 77-82 5.4-6.2 0<br />

2012 All 1.4 (39.5-38.1) 29.5 (502-472) 77-76 6.5-6.3 7<br />

’12 conf only -3.7 (39.7-43.3) 21.8 (515-493) 80-73 6.4-6.8 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 47% 78% 78% 63% 21% 47%<br />

Dana Holgorsen has had an up and down tenure in Morgantown but<br />

the Mountaineers a year ago did post their best season since joining<br />

the Big 12 in 2012.<br />

WV returns 8 starters on offense but the team’s success will clearly lie<br />

with OB Skyler Howard (26-14 ratio) showing continued improvement.<br />

The Mountaineers do lose a 1,500 yard rusher. The receiving corps is<br />

in solid shape with 3 of their top 4 back and the OL only loses one<br />

starter but he was a 3-yr LT (84 career starts back).<br />

The defense will be cause for concern as the Mountaineers 3-3-5<br />

defense returns just 2 DL and 2 DB’s as they lost 4 starters to the NFL<br />

Draft. Overall, they lose 5 of their top 6 tacklers and their entire LB<br />

corps has to be rebuilt. On the bright side, of the expected starters, all<br />

of them figure to be upperclassmen.<br />

The schedule features a pair of solid non-conference match-ups<br />

against Missouri and BYU. They also get key conference games vs TCU,<br />

Oklahoma and Baylor all at home and could surprise a team or two<br />

just like in 2014 when they hosted all 3.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Missouri<br />

9/10 Sat Youngstown St<br />

9/24 Sat (N) BYU<br />

10/1 Sat Kansas St<br />

10/15 Sat at Texas Tech<br />

10/22 Sat TCU<br />

10/29 Sat at Oklahoma St<br />

11/5 Sat Kansas<br />

11/12 Sat at Texas<br />

11/19 Sat Oklahoma<br />

11/26 Sat at Iowa St<br />

12/3 Sat Baylor<br />

open<br />

WV is 0-7 ATS as a FAV after a<br />

road loss (since/ Oct 20, 2012)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 4-8 7-6 8-5<br />

Home 4-3 3-3 3-3 6-1<br />

Away 2-2 1-4 4-1 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-8 3-9 7-6 5-8<br />

HF 2-4 0-3 1-2 4-3<br />

HD 1-0 1-2 2-1 0-0<br />

AF 1-1 0-1 2-2 1-1<br />

AD 1-1 2-2 1-0 0-3<br />

vs Conf 4-5 3-6 4-5 3-6<br />

Non Conf 1-3 0-3 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 2-5 2-3 0-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 2-3 1-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-5 1-3 4-3 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-5 1-3 4-3 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 6-6 4-9 4-8<br />

as HF 3-3 1-2 0-3 1-5<br />

as HD 1-0 2-1 1-2 0-0<br />

as AF 0-2 1-0 0-4 0-2<br />

as AD 2-0 2-2 1-0 2-1<br />

vs Conf 5-4 6-3 1-8 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 0-3 3-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 4-3 0-5 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 3-2 0-3 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-4 2-2 3-4 2-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-4 2-2 3-4 2-5


2015 FINAL<br />

Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

NORTH W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Stanford 12 2 85.7% 37.8 22.6 9 1 90.0%<br />

Oregon 9 4 69.2% 43.0 37.5 7 2 77.8%<br />

Washington State 9 4 69.2% 31.5 27.7 6 3 66.7%<br />

California 8 5 61.5% 37.9 30.7 4 5 44.4%<br />

Washington 7 6 53.8% 30.6 18.8 4 5 44.4%<br />

Oregon State 2 10 16.7% 19.0 37.0 0 9 0.0%<br />

SOUTH W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Utah 10 3 76.9% 30.6 22.3 6 3 66.7%<br />

USC 8 6 57.1% 33.9 25.7 6 4 60.0%<br />

UCLA 8 5 61.5% 32.2 26.0 5 4 55.6%<br />

Arizona State 6 7 46.2% 34.6 33.5 4 5 44.4%<br />

Arizona 7 6 53.8% 37.4 35.8 3 6 33.3%<br />

Colorado 4 9 30.8% 24.6 27.5 1 8 11.1%<br />

BRAD POWER<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

9 Stanford 89.38<br />

11 Washington 88.95<br />

13 USC 86.24<br />

14 UCLA 86.15<br />

18 Oregon 85.42<br />

37 Utah 79.94<br />

40 Washington St 79.35<br />

44 Arizona St 77.69<br />

45 Arizona 77.21<br />

50 California 76.23<br />

59 Colorado 73.19<br />

88 Oregon St 65.90


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 3-6 (#5 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #16 - #116<br />

SOS: #52 Adjusted Off – Def: #31 - #101<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #43<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #43 (75.7)<br />

Arizona<br />

The Wildcats in ’16<br />

HC here: Rich Rodriguez – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.4*, DEF-7.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #43<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

2.4% 27.3% 35.0% 35.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Wildcats are 8-1 ATS as Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a double-digit HD<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6 (-110)<br />

2015 7 (-210) 6-6 und<br />

2014 7.5 (+125) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 7.5 (-120) 7-6 und<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.6 (37.4-35.8) 28.2 (495-467) 76-79 6.5-5.9 -4<br />

’15 conf only -9.4 (30.9-40.3) -20.6 (464-485) 78-77 5.9-6.3 -9<br />

2014 All 6.3 (34.5-28.2) 12.6 (464-451) 81-80 5.7-5.7 8<br />

’14 conf only 4.1 (33.4-29.3) -44.3 (425-469) 80-82 5.3-5.7 7<br />

2013 All 9.2 (33.5-24.2) 57.4 (458-401) 79-76 5.8-5.3 4<br />

’13 conf only -0.9 (29.1-30.0) 22.9 (460-437) 83-78 5.5-5.6 -2<br />

2012 All 2.8 (38.2-35.3) 27.2 (526-499) 83-83 6.3-6.0 -1<br />

’12 conf only -5.3 (34.2-39.6) -25.8 (494-520) 80-82 6.2-6.3 -4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

85% 48% 38% 60% 57% 73% 62%<br />

After a Fiesta Bowl appearance in 2014, expectations were high for<br />

the Wildcats last year but after a 3-0 start in non-conference action<br />

they slipped to just 3-6 in Pac-12 play (worst since 2011).<br />

QB Anu Solomon had solid numbers last year but while he was injured,<br />

freshman Brandon Dawkins opened some eyes and will push Solomon<br />

for the job. RB Nick Wilson returns but they lose 2 of their 3 rushers<br />

who topped 700 yards. The receiving corps also losses 3 of its top 4<br />

producers. The OL must replace 2 multi-year starters but 5 are back<br />

that made 3 or more starts.<br />

Last year the Wildcats finished #101 in adjusted defense and while<br />

they had 6 starters back 2 LB’s missed most of the season including<br />

Scooby Wright III. This year they bring back 4 of the top 6 DL and also<br />

get back LB Cody Ippolito who missed last year. They also wel<strong>com</strong>e<br />

back 6 of the top 8 DB’s.<br />

The schedule will again give the Wildcats an opportunity to start off<br />

3-0 but they could be an underdog in their next 6 games. They do<br />

close the season with 3 winnable games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) BYU<br />

9/10 Sat Grambling St<br />

9/17 Sat Hawaii<br />

9/24 Sat Washington<br />

10/1 Sat at UCLA<br />

10/8 Sat at Utah<br />

10/15 Sat USC<br />

10/29 Sat Stanford<br />

11/5 Sat at Washington St<br />

11/12 Sat Colorado<br />

11/19 Sat at Oregon St<br />

11/25 Fri Arizona St<br />

open<br />

Arizona is 7-2 to the OVER after<br />

a loss by 10+ points the L4Y<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 8-5 10-4 7-6<br />

Home 6-2 4-2 6-1 4-2<br />

Away 1-3 3-3 4-1 3-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 6-6 5-8 6-7<br />

HF 2-4 2-1 2-3 2-2<br />

HD 2-0 1-0 0-1 1-1<br />

AF 0-0 2-1 1-1 2-1<br />

AD 2-2 0-3 2-1 1-3<br />

vs Conf 4-5 3-6 4-5 4-5<br />

Non Conf 2-2 3-0 1-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 3-2 1-1 3-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 1-1 0-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 2-4 3-7 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 2-4 3-7 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 9-3 5-8 5-9 10-2<br />

as HF 4-1 0-4 3-3 3-1<br />

as HD 2-0 0-1 0-1 2-0<br />

as AF 0-0 2-1 1-1 3-0<br />

as AD 2-2 2-1 0-3 2-1<br />

vs Conf 7-2 3-6 3-7 6-2<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-2 2-2 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 5-0 2-3 2-1 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 2-0 1-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 3-4 2-8 6-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 3-4 2-8 6-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 4-5 (#94 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #24 - #114<br />

SOS: #22 Adjusted Off – Def: #40 - #61<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #20<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #38 (77.2)<br />

Arizona St<br />

The Sun Devils in ’16<br />

HC here: Todd Graham – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.2, DEF-6.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #27<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.0% 17.5% 23.1% 52.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Sun Devils are 1-10 ATS after a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

loss as a HF (s’/11/16/02)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 5 (-120)<br />

2015 8.5 (+130) 6-6 und<br />

2014 6.5 (-160) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 9.5 (+220) 10-2 OV<br />

2012 5 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.2 (34.6-33.5) 13.6 (477-464) 82-74 5.8-6.2 2<br />

’15 conf only -0.1 (35.8-35.9) 12.5 (491-478) 84-72 5.8-6.7 1<br />

2014 All 9.0 (36.9-27.9) 25.2 (442-417) 75-74 5.9-5.6 14<br />

’14 conf only 2.4 (31.8-29.3) -15.0 (417-432) 76-75 5.5-5.7 6<br />

2013 All 13.1 (39.7-26.6) 84.9 (457-372) 79-67 5.8-5.5 15<br />

’13 conf only 14.3 (41.2-26.9) 87.5 (457-370) 78-68 5.9-5.5 13<br />

2012 All 14.1 (38.4-24.3) 113.8 (465-351) 78-73 6.0-4.8 6<br />

’12 conf only 7.2 (34.3-27.1) 78.7 (448-369) 82-74 5.4-5.0 6<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

1% 84% 45% 22% 85% 78% 29%<br />

Coming off his best season here head coach Todd Graham had 15<br />

returning starters last season and expectations were high but ASU lost<br />

5 of their last 7 games to finish only 6-7.<br />

The offense will have a new QB with no experience and it’ll be tough<br />

to replace the 30-9 ratio of last season. The RB’s do return their top 2<br />

as Demario Richard and Kalen Ballage <strong>com</strong>bined for 1,757 and 5.3 ypc.<br />

ASU returns one WR and their TE but lose their 1,000-yard guy and 3<br />

of the top 4 producers. The OL like most of the offense returns only<br />

one starter and only have 15 career starts.<br />

ASU loses a pair of starters up front on defense including their MVP in<br />

Antonio Longino. The LB crew returns intact but the secondary returns<br />

only one starter and that is a sophomore CB. However, there is depth<br />

at safety as last year’s backups played significant minutes.<br />

The early season schedule is manageable as despite the low season<br />

win total, the Sun Devils could be favored in their first 4 games (6<br />

overall). They do have to play league powers USC, Oregon and<br />

Washington all on the road.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat N Arizona<br />

9/10 Sat Texas Tech<br />

9/16 Fri at UTSA<br />

9/24 Sat California<br />

10/1 Sat at USC<br />

10/8 Sat UCLA<br />

10/15 Sat at Colorado<br />

10/22 Sat Washington St<br />

10/29 Sat at Oregon<br />

11/10 Thu Utah<br />

11/19 Sat at Washington<br />

11/25 Fri at Arizona<br />

open<br />

Arizona St is 10-1-1 ATS home<br />

after a loss as an AD (s’/10/31/09)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 10-4 10-3 6-7<br />

Home 4-2 7-1 5-1 5-2<br />

Away 3-3 3-1 4-2 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-4 7-7 6-7 6-7<br />

HF 4-1 5-3 2-2 3-3<br />

HD 0-1 0-0 1-1 0-1<br />

AF 2-0 2-1 2-2 0-0<br />

AD 2-2 0-1 1-1 2-2<br />

vs Conf 5-4 6-4 4-5 5-4<br />

Non Conf 4-0 1-3 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 2-1 2-1 3-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 1-1 1-0 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 6-1 4-6 4-5 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-1 4-6 4-5 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 9-4 8-5 5-7<br />

as HF 2-2 5-2 2-2 3-3<br />

as HD 0-1 0-0 1-1 0-1<br />

as AF 1-1 2-1 2-2 0-0<br />

as AD 2-2 1-0 2-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 4-5 6-3 5-4 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 3-1 3-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 1-1 3-0 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 1-1 1-0 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 7-3 5-4 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 7-3 5-4 3-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 4-5 (#4 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #8 - #110<br />

SOS: #5 Adjusted Off – Def: #14 - #57<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #34<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #26 (80.0)<br />

California<br />

The Colden Bears in ’16<br />

HC here: Sonny Dykes – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.2, DEF-4.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #39<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

0.0% 14.7% 39.6% 45.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Golden Bears are 1-10 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a game as a HD (s’/ 10/27/12) <strong>2016</strong> 4 (-120)<br />

2015 5 (-180) 7-5 OV<br />

2014 2.5 (-150) 5-7 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (+110) 1-11 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 7.2 (37.9-30.7) 75.5 (529-454) 76-74 7.0-6.1 4<br />

’15 conf only -1.4 (31.7-33.1) 45.8 (512-466) 77-75 6.7-6.2 -1<br />

2014 All -1.5 (38.2-39.8) -16.7 (495-512) 81-82 6.1-6.3 -3<br />

’14 conf only -6.6 (37.6-44.1) -62.8 (487-550) 79-84 6.1-6.5 -5<br />

2013 All -22.9 (23.0-45.9) -76.0 (454-530) 87-75 5.2-7.1 -15<br />

’13 conf only -27.8 (19.4-47.2) -101.3 (419-521) 85-75 5.0-7.0 -15<br />

2012 All -10.1 (23.0-33.1) -50.0 (391-441) 68-78 5.8-5.7 -7<br />

’12 conf only -14.0 (19.3-33.3) -84.5 (367-451) 68-78 5.4-5.8 -6<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

4% 80% 19% 69% 37% 23% 67%<br />

After a disastrous 1-11 first season in 2013, Sonny Dykes has improved<br />

the win total significantly in each of the last two years getting to 5 wins<br />

in 2014 and last year notched 8 wins for the first time since 2009.<br />

The Bears must find a replacement for the NFL’s #1 pick in the draft,<br />

Jarred Goff. Davis Webb transferred in late May and is Mel Kiper’s #1<br />

senior QB. Webb threw for 2,539 at Texas Tech in 2014 with a 24-13<br />

ratio. Cal used a RB-by-<strong>com</strong>mittee and all 3 players are back. It’s the<br />

polar opposite from the receiving corps which will be without their top<br />

6 receivers from last season. The OL does return 89 career starts.<br />

The Bears gave up 45.9 ppg in 2013 but got that number down to 30.7<br />

ppg last year. This year the Bears defense losses 6 starters with one<br />

from the DL, 2 LB’s and 3 DB’s. Unfortunately, all of those players were<br />

among the top 6 tacklers from last season.<br />

The schedule takes the Bears to Sydney, Australia in the opener and<br />

they also have to play at San Diego State and host a much improved<br />

Texas team in non-conference play. They then pull USC and UCLA from<br />

the Pac-12 South and could be favored in only 4 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

8/26 Fri (N) Hawaii<br />

9/10 Sat at San Diego St<br />

9/17 Sat Texas<br />

9/24 Sat at Arizona St<br />

10/1 Sat Utah<br />

10/8 Sat at Oregon St<br />

10/21 Fri Oregon<br />

10/27 Thu at USC<br />

11/5 Sat Washington<br />

11/12 Sat at Washington St<br />

11/19 Sat Stanford<br />

11/26 Sat UCLA<br />

open<br />

Cal is 8-0 ATS as a HF after a<br />

win at home (since/ 9/22/07)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 1-11 5-7 8-5<br />

Home 2-5 1-6 2-4 5-1<br />

Away 1-4 0-5 3-2 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-8 2-10 7-5 6-7<br />

HF 1-2 0-1 1-3 3-2<br />

HD 1-3 1-5 1-1 0-1<br />

AF 1-0 0-0 0-0 1-1<br />

AD 1-3 1-4 5-0 1-3<br />

vs Conf 2-7 2-7 5-4 3-6<br />

Non Conf 2-1 0-3 2-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-6 2-8 2-4 1-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-4 2-7 2-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-1 0-1 4-1 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-1 0-1 4-1 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 5-7 7-5 4-8<br />

as HF 0-2 1-0 3-1 2-2<br />

as HD 2-2 3-3 0-2 0-1<br />

as AF 0-1 0-0 0-0 1-1<br />

as AD 3-1 1-4 3-2 0-4<br />

vs Conf 4-5 2-7 5-4 2-7<br />

vs Non Conf 1-1 3-0 2-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-3 3-7 4-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 2-7 2-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 1-0 3-2 2-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 1-0 3-2 2-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 4-9, 1-8 (#6 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #68 - #85<br />

SOS: #57 Adjusted Off – Def: #94 - #66<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #71<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #69 (69.4)<br />

Colorado<br />

The Buffaloes in ’16<br />

HC here: Mike MacIntyre – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.7*, DEF-8.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #69<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.5% 28.1% 40.7% 20.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Buffaloes are 1-10 ATS as a DOG Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a dog (s’/4/4/00) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-110)<br />

2015 4.5 (-160) 4-9 und<br />

2014 4.5 (+145) 2-10 und<br />

2013 3.5 (-160) 4-8 *<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 1-11 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.8 (24.6-27.5) -20.1 (397-417) 78-73 5.1-5.7 1<br />

’15 conf only -12.7 (19.7-32.3) -89.6 (361-451) 75-73 4.8-6.1 -4<br />

2014 All -10.5 (28.5-39.0) -21.8 (439-461) 83-70 5.3-6.6 -10<br />

’14 conf only -13.8 (29.2-43.0) -50.9 (446-497) 84-70 5.3-7.1 -11<br />

2013 All -12.8 (25.4-38.2) -98.1 (370-468) 69-77 5.3-6.1 -3<br />

’13 conf only -23.9 (20.3-44.2) -188.5 (343-532) 70-80 4.9-6.7 -7<br />

2012 All -28.2 (17.8-46.0) -185.8 (303-489) 69-69 4.4-7.1 -19<br />

’12 conf only -30.7 (17.2-47.9) -185.5 (307-493) 69-69 4.4-7.2 -16<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

81% 84% 64% 81% 71% 92% 73%<br />

It’s make or break time for HC Mike MacIntyre as his Buffaloes are 3-<br />

8, 2-10 and 4-9 in his first 3 seasons here. Colorado has been close to<br />

breaking through as they have suffered 8 losses in Pac-12 play the last<br />

two years by 7 points or less.<br />

QB Sefo Liufau suffered a lisfranc injury last year and his productivity<br />

struggled. He missed all of spring practice and Colorado was expecting<br />

a transfer to join them at QB but he went to Cal leaving Colorado in<br />

dire straits if Liufau isn’t healthy. The Buffs do have their top RB<br />

returning and the OL does have 76 career starts. The receiving unit<br />

also only loses one player but it’s a huge loss in Nelson Spruce who<br />

had posted back-to-back 1,000 yard seasons.<br />

The defense last year improved by 11.5 ppg and are in solid shape.<br />

They return 10 of the top 12 DL, 5 LB’s who have been full-time<br />

starters and 5 of their top 7 DB’s.<br />

The schedule will see them favored in 3 of their first 5 games but they<br />

could be an underdog in at least 6 of their final 7 games meaning a 9 th<br />

straight season without a bowl is more likely than not.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri (N) Colorado St<br />

9/10 Sat Idaho St<br />

9/17 Sat at Michigan<br />

9/24 Sat at Oregon<br />

10/1 Sat Oregon St<br />

10/8 Sat at USC<br />

10/15 Sat Arizona St<br />

10/22 Sat at Stanford<br />

11/3 Thu UCLA<br />

11/12 Sat at Arizona<br />

11/19 Sat Washington St<br />

11/26 Sat Utah<br />

open<br />

Colorado is 7-0 ATS as a FAV<br />

after a road win (since/ 10/13/01)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 1-11 4-8 2-10 4-9<br />

Home 0-6 2-3 1-5 2-4<br />

Away 1-4 0-5 1-4 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 5-6 6-5 5-7<br />

HF 0-1 1-1 1-0 1-1<br />

HD 1-4 1-2 4-1 1-3<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-1 0-1<br />

AD 2-3 2-3 1-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 3-6 4-5 5-3 4-5<br />

Non Conf 0-3 1-1 1-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-7 3-4 4-4 4-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-5 3-4 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 0-1 1-2 2-0 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-1 1-2 2-0 1-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-3 7-5 3-9<br />

as HF 0-0 0-2 0-1 0-1<br />

as HD 2-3 3-0 4-1 1-3<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 1-0 0-1<br />

as AD 4-1 3-1 2-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 5-4 6-2 6-3 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-1 1-1 1-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Loss 6-3 4-2 6-3 2-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 5-3 4-2 3-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 0-1 2-1 1-1 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-1 2-1 1-1 1-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 7-2 (#2 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #5 - #119<br />

SOS: #20 Adjusted Off – Def: #9 - #73<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #16<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #11 (86.5)<br />

Oregon<br />

The Ducks in ’16<br />

HC here: Mark Helfrich – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.1, DEF-4.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #28<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

2.8% 29.7% 22.0% 45.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Ducks are 1-11-1 ATS after a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

road loss (s’/11/13/04)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 8 (-110)<br />

2015 9.5 (-135) 9-3 und<br />

2014 10.5 (-150) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 10.5 (-195) 10-2 und<br />

2012 10.5 (n/a) 11-1 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 5.5 (43.0-37.5) 52.9 (538-485) 76-80 7.1-6.0 5<br />

’15 conf only 3.1 (40.9-37.8) 53.5 (542-488) 74-80 7.4-6.1 2<br />

2014 All 21.8 (45.4-23.6) 117.3 (547-430) 75-78 7.3-5.5 23<br />

’14 conf only 20.8 (44.6-23.8) 127.7 (538-410) 76-77 7.1-5.4 12<br />

2013 All 25.0 (45.5-20.5) 194.9 (565-370) 75-80 7.6-4.6 11<br />

’13 conf only 16.1 (41.9-25.8) 138.0 (540-402) 77-82 7.1-4.9 2<br />

2012 All 28.0 (49.6-21.6) 163.2 (537-374) 81-76 6.6-4.9 21<br />

’12 conf only 28.6 (49.8-21.2) 144.8 (535-390) 81-76 6.6-5.1 21<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

20% 93% 72% 42% 40% 22% 94%<br />

Last year the Ducks lost 4 games in a season for the first time since<br />

2007 and much of it had to do with a defense that allowed a schoolrecord<br />

37.5 ppg (also nagging injuries at QB).<br />

The Ducks will go to the well again this season signing a Big Sky QB<br />

transfer for the second straight year. Last year Vernon Adams from<br />

Eastern Washington finished with a 26-6 ratio while this season they<br />

will ask former Montana State QB Dakota Prukop to do the same thing<br />

after earning 1 st -team FCS All-American honors last year. All the top<br />

RB’s return led by Royce Freeman who had 1,836 yards last year while<br />

they return 6 of their top 7 receivers (lose top guy). The OL is another<br />

story as 3 starters depart.<br />

The defense loses their top 3 tacklers as the DL loses 3 starters while<br />

4 of their top 5 LB’s also depart giving them a very inexperienced front<br />

7. On the bright side, they return all 4 starters in the secondary.<br />

The schedule will see them get key Pac-12 North games against<br />

Washington and Stanford at home (beat both on the road last year)<br />

but they also have 5 road trips against bowl teams from a year ago.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat UC Davis<br />

9/10 Sat Virginia<br />

9/17 Sat at Nebraska<br />

9/24 Sat Colorado<br />

10/1 Sat at Washington St<br />

10/8 Sat Washington<br />

10/21 Fri at California<br />

10/29 Sat Arizona St<br />

11/5 Sat at USC<br />

11/12 Sat Stanford<br />

11/19 Sat at Utah<br />

11/26 Sat at Oregon St<br />

open<br />

Oregon is 12-2 ATS after a win<br />

as a dog (since/ Nov 15, 2003)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 12-1 11-2 13-2 9-4<br />

Home 6-1 7-0 6-1 5-2<br />

Away 4-0 3-2 4-0 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 8-5 10-5 7-6<br />

HF 3-4 4-3 4-3 2-5<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 4-0 3-2 3-1 1-0<br />

AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-0<br />

vs Conf 7-2 4-5 8-2 6-3<br />

Non Conf 1-3 4-0 2-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-0 0-2 1-0 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 0-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 7-4 7-3 9-4 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 7-4 7-3 9-4 5-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 7-6 6-7 8-4<br />

as HF 3-3 5-2 3-3 5-1<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 3-1 2-3 1-2 0-1<br />

as AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-2<br />

vs Conf 6-3 4-5 3-5 6-3<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-1 3-2 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-0 2-0 0-0 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 5-5 4-6 5-7 7-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-5 4-6 5-7 7-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 2-10, 0-9 (#6 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7, DEF-2<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #111 - #117<br />

SOS: #36 Adjusted Off – Def: #96 - #104<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #61<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #97 (57.0)<br />

Oregon St<br />

The Beavers in ’16<br />

HC here: Gary Andersen – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.4*, DEF-7.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #46<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

15.2% 23.5% 37.1% 24.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Beavers are 2-10 ATS after a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

10+ pts loss the last 2 seasons <strong>2016</strong> 3.5 (-110)<br />

2015 4 (-110) 2-10 und<br />

2014 6.5 (-205) 5-7 und<br />

2013 8.5 (-210) 6-6 und<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -18.0 (19.0-37.0) -145.1 (336-482) 66-75 5.1-6.4 -4<br />

’15 conf only -24.6 (17.8-42.3) -208.0 (341-549) 65-78 5.2-7.1 -5<br />

2014 All -5.9 (25.7-31.6) -12.8 (394-406) 71-71 5.6-5.8 3<br />

’14 conf only -12.8 (23.7-36.4) -80.9 (376-457) 70-74 5.4-6.2 0<br />

2013 All 3.4 (34.8-31.4) 30.4 (467-437) 75-71 6.2-6.1 3<br />

’13 conf only 1.0 (33.4-32.4) 28.4 (467-439) 76-72 6.1-6.1 2<br />

2012 All 11.9 (32.5-20.6) 77.5 (431-354) 73-69 5.9-5.2 8<br />

’12 conf only 7.1 (29.7-22.6) 44.1 (425-381) 73-70 5.9-5.4 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

70% 65% 80% 60% 49% 65% 76%<br />

Gary Andersen inherited only 9 returning starters last year and was<br />

changing schemes on both sides of the ball. He had a tough first season<br />

to say the least but when you finished #111 & #117 out of 128 teams<br />

in offense and defense there’s only one way to go, right?<br />

Last year true freshman Seth Collins who basically played 6 games<br />

before an injury, still led the team in passing and rushing. While back,<br />

it looks as if Collins will move to WR with the job seemingly going to<br />

Utah St transfer Darell Garretson who Andersen recruited while there.<br />

They are also without their top RB but freshman Ryan Nall gained 455<br />

yards (6.2 ypc) and he’s ready to take over. The OL loses 2 starters but<br />

they were both All-Pac12. The receivers also have their top 2 back.<br />

The DL used only 6 players last year and half of that group departs<br />

including the unit’s top 2 sack men. The LB’s return 3 of their 4 starters<br />

but the loss was their top tackler. The secondary also loses the top<br />

tackler from their group but the next 8 players are back.<br />

The schedule could find them an underdog in at least 10 games<br />

meaning they will have to pull several upsets to get to a bowl.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at Minnesota<br />

9/17 Sat Idaho St<br />

9/24 Sat Boise St<br />

10/1 Sat at Colorado<br />

10/8 Sat California<br />

10/15 Sat Utah<br />

10/22 Sat at Washington<br />

10/29 Sat Washington St<br />

11/5 Sat at Stanford<br />

11/12 Sat at UCLA<br />

11/19 Sat Arizona<br />

11/26 Sat Oregon<br />

open<br />

Oregon St is 3-14 ATS after a<br />

game as a dog (s’/ 9/21/13)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-4 7-6 5-7 2-10<br />

Home 6-1 2-4 3-4 2-4<br />

Away 3-2 4-2 2-3 0-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-4 7-6 2-10 3-9<br />

HF 4-1 1-3 1-3 1-1<br />

HD 1-1 0-1 1-2 0-3<br />

AF 0-1 2-1 0-2 0-0<br />

AD 3-0 3-0 0-3 2-4<br />

vs Conf 5-3 6-3 1-8 2-7<br />

Non Conf 3-1 1-3 1-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 3-3 1-5 3-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 2-1 0-4 2-6<br />

Off SU Win 4-4 4-2 1-4 0-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-4 4-2 1-4 0-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 7-6 6-6 6-6<br />

as HF 2-2 2-2 2-2 1-1<br />

as HD 1-1 0-1 1-2 2-1<br />

as AF 0-1 2-1 2-0 0-0<br />

as AD 3-1 2-1 1-2 3-3<br />

vs Conf 5-4 5-4 5-4 5-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-2 1-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 2-4 5-1 5-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 2-1 3-1 5-3<br />

Off SU Win 5-4 4-2 1-4 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-4 4-2 1-4 1-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 12-2, 8-1 (#1 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #40 - #43<br />

SOS: #9 Adjusted Off – Def: #6 - #43<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #24<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #4 (91.7)<br />

Stanford<br />

The Cardinal in ’16<br />

HC here: David Shaw – 6 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5, DEF-5.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #16<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.9% 20.1% 14.9% 61.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Cardinal are 2-12 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a HD (s’/10/29/83) <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (+100)<br />

2015 9 (+100) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 8.5 (-125) 7-5 und<br />

2013 9.5 (-120) 10-2 OV<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 15.2 (37.8-22.6) 67.2 (436-368) 66-66 6.6-5.6 1<br />

’15 conf only 16.8 (40.9-24.1) 69.0 (452-383) 68-65 6.7-5.9 -1<br />

2014 All 10.8 (27.2-16.4) 106.2 (389-282) 66-67 5.9-4.2 -5<br />

’14 conf only 4.3 (23.8-19.4) 88.9 (395-306) 66-70 6.0-4.4 -6<br />

2013 All 13.3 (32.3-19.0) 62.2 (405-343) 64-71 6.3-4.9 0<br />

’13 conf only 14.8 (33.7-18.9) 58.5 (415-356) 65-72 6.4-4.9 0<br />

2012 All 10.6 (27.9-17.2) 38.2 (374-336) 68-71 5.5-4.7 9<br />

’12 conf only 11.0 (28.7-17.7) 57.3 (397-340) 70-71 5.7-4.8 2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

3% 72% 67% 40% 32% 55% 75%<br />

David Shaw has done a tremendous job replacing Jim Harbaugh at<br />

Stanford including 4 major bowl appearances, 2 Rose Bowl wins and 4<br />

seasons with at least 11 wins.<br />

Except for 9 games over the last 7 years a QB named Luck or Hogan<br />

has been in charge so there’s some big shoes to fill for probable starter<br />

Keller Chryst. At least Heisman favorite Christian McCaffery returns<br />

and while his 2,019 rush yards are well documented from last year he<br />

also led the team in receiving with 645 yards. The OL also has some<br />

big shoes to fill as they lose 3 starters, two of which were draft choices<br />

included last year’s Outland Trophy winner. The receiving unit also<br />

loses 2 of their top 3.<br />

The defense loses 5 starters but last year they came into the season<br />

with only 3 returnees. 2 of the top 3 DL depart a long with a pair of<br />

LB’s. The secondary is experienced with 5 of the top 7 back.<br />

If you’re surprised by the low season win total, don’t be as the Cardinal<br />

do have to play at UCLA, at Washington and at Notre Dame and at<br />

Oregon and figure to be an underdog in all 4.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri Kansas St<br />

9/17 Sat USC<br />

9/24 Sat at UCLA<br />

9/30 Fri at Washington<br />

10/8 Sat Washington St<br />

10/15 Sat at Notre Dame<br />

10/22 Sat Colorado<br />

10/29 Sat at Arizona<br />

11/5 Sat Oregon St<br />

11/12 Sat at Oregon<br />

11/19 Sat at California<br />

11/26 Sat Rice<br />

open<br />

Stanford is 21-4-1 ATS as an AD<br />

after a win as a HF (s’/11/16/85)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 12-2 11-3 8-5 12-2<br />

Home 7-0 7-0 4-2 6-1<br />

Away 4-2 3-2 3-3 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 7-7 6-6 9-4<br />

HF 1-4 3-3 3-2 4-2<br />

HD 1-0 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 3-1 1-3 1-3 2-2<br />

AD 2-0 1-0 1-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 7-3 3-5 7-2<br />

Non Conf 3-1 0-4 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-0 3-1 2-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 1-1 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 7-3 5-6 2-5 7-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 7-3 5-6 2-5 7-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-10 6-8 3-9 8-6<br />

as HF 4-2 3-3 1-4 4-3<br />

as HD 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 0-4 1-3 0-4 1-3<br />

as AD 0-2 0-1 1-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-7 4-6 2-7 6-4<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 2-2 1-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 1-1 1-4 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 1-1 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-8 5-6 2-5 8-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-8 5-6 2-5 8-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 5-4 (#3 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #28 - #68<br />

SOS: #24 Adjusted Off – Def: #29 - #35<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #12<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #32 (77.8)<br />

UCLA<br />

The Bruins in ’16<br />

HC here: Jim Mora – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.8*, DEF-9.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #12<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.6% 11.5% 39.9% 43.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Bruins are 0-6 ATS in the 2 nd of Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

back-to-back home games. <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (+100)<br />

2015 9.5 (+160) 8-4 und<br />

2014 9.5 (-115) 9-3 und<br />

2013 8.5 (+200) 9-3 OV<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 6.2 (32.2-26.0) 64.2 (466-402) 75-80 6.3-5.0 0<br />

’15 conf only 4.0 (32.8-28.8) 54.9 (471-416) 76-82 6.2-5.1 3<br />

2014 All 5.4 (33.5-28.1) 69.3 (468-399) 76-77 6.1-5.2 0<br />

’14 conf only 5.2 (33.9-28.7) 71.0 (475-404) 77-77 6.2-5.3 0<br />

2013 All 13.8 (36.9-23.2) 62.5 (448-386) 74-76 6.1-5.1 10<br />

’13 conf only 5.0 (31.1-26.1) -16.2 (393-409) 71-76 5.5-5.4 11<br />

2012 All 6.9 (34.4-27.6) 48.6 (465-416) 78-74 5.9-5.6 7<br />

’12 conf only 5.7 (33.4-27.7) 15.9 (430-414) 75-74 5.7-5.6 2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

98% 40% 33% 43% 68% 72% 100%<br />

After UCLA failed to notch 8 wins in a season for 6 straight years, Jim<br />

Mora has guided the Bruins to at least 8 wins in each of his 4 years<br />

here. However, last year’s season did end on a sour note losing 3 of<br />

their last 4 including to cross-town rival USC (first time since 2011).<br />

You will see above that UCLA had 43% of their starts made by seniors<br />

last year, mostly on the offense. QB Josh Rosen was an exception as<br />

he started as a true frosh finishing with a 23-11 ratio. At RB they’ll have<br />

to replace the 2,900 rush yards Paul Perkins had the last 2 years. The<br />

receivers also must replace their top 2 players and 4 of the top 5. The<br />

OL has 2 starters back but they do have 58 career starts.<br />

The defense only loses 2 starters. The reality is it’s even less than that<br />

as the empty slot on the DL will be filled by a 2-year starter in Eddie<br />

Vanderdoes, who took a medical redshirt last year. The only other hole<br />

is at LB but they’ve recruited well there.<br />

The schedule does feature a pair of tough non-conf road games at<br />

Texas A&M and BYU. However, their Pac-12 schedule is favorable as<br />

they host Stanford, Utah and USC and avoid Washington and Oregon.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at Texas A&M<br />

9/10 Sat UNLV<br />

9/17 Sat at BYU<br />

9/24 Sat Stanford<br />

10/1 Sat Arizona<br />

10/8 Sat at Arizona St<br />

10/15 Sat at Washington St<br />

10/22 Sat Utah<br />

11/3 Thu at Colorado<br />

11/12 Sat Oregon St<br />

11/19 Sat USC<br />

11/26 Sat at California<br />

open<br />

UCLA is 6-1 to the UNDER as an<br />

AD the last 3 seasons.<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-5 10-3 10-3 8-5<br />

Home 5-2 5-1 3-3 4-2<br />

Away 4-2 4-2 5-0 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-6 9-4 5-8 5-8<br />

HF 2-2 4-1 2-3 1-5<br />

HD 2-1 0-1 0-1 0-0<br />

AF 2-2 1-0 2-3 3-0<br />

AD 2-0 2-2 0-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 5-5 5-4 4-5 4-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 4-0 1-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 1-2 1-2 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 0-2 1-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 5-4 7-2 4-5 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-4 7-2 4-5 3-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-6 6-7 5-7 4-8<br />

as HF 1-3 4-1 1-4 1-4<br />

as HD 2-1 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 3-1 0-1 3-2 1-2<br />

as AD 2-0 0-4 0-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 6-4 3-6 3-5 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 3-1 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-3 1-2 1-1 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 1-1 1-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 4-5 4-5 2-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 4-5 4-5 2-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-6, 6-3 (T #1-#2 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #38 - #66<br />

SOS: #2 Adjusted Off – Def: #19 - #29<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #2<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #25 (80.4)<br />

USC<br />

The Trojans in ’16<br />

HC here: Clay Helton – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.9, DEF-5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #8<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

11.4% 31.8% 27.9% 28.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Trojans are 8-24 ATS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

off a win (since 9/8/12)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (+100)<br />

2015 8.5 (-150) 8-4 und<br />

2014 8.5 (-185) 8-4 und<br />

2013 10.5 (+170) 9-4 und<br />

2012 10.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 8.2 (33.9-25.7) 37.1 (438-401) 71-70 6.2-5.7 11<br />

’15 conf only 2.8 (30.9-28.1) -2.0 (401-403) 71-69 5.6-5.9 9<br />

2014 All 10.7 (35.8-25.2) 49.6 (458-408) 76-77 6.0-5.3 11<br />

’14 conf only 7.6 (32.1-24.6) 23.5 (424-401) 71-78 5.9-5.1 6<br />

2013 All 8.5 (29.7-21.2) 64.7 (400-335) 66-67 6.1-5.0 5<br />

’13 conf only 5.6 (31.0-25.4) 18.1 (400-382) 65-70 6.2-5.5 5<br />

2012 All 7.8 (32.1-24.3) 38.9 (433-394) 66-74 6.6-5.3 -2<br />

’12 conf only 8.0 (34.0-26.0) 69.7 (469-399) 68-74 6.9-5.4 -4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

6% 81% 95% 93% 33% 50% 92%<br />

While new HC Clay Helton is in his “1 st season” he does have 10 games<br />

of coaching experience here as he was the interim for the 2013 Las<br />

Vegas Bowl and the final 7 games last year being named the<br />

permanent head coach prior to the Pac-12 Championship.<br />

For the first time in 4 seasons, Cody Kessler will not be the USC QB<br />

with Max Browne (12 attempts last year) the most likely to take over<br />

(only starter USC has to replace on offense). Helton’s new offense will<br />

go back to the ground where USC returns their top 2 rushers and all 5<br />

starting OL are back (131 career starts). The top 8 receivers also return<br />

led by JuJu Smith-Schuster (1,454 yards last year).<br />

The defense will return to a 5-2 look as Helton brought back DC Clancy<br />

Pendergast (DC here in ’13). However, the only returning player in the<br />

front 7 is LB Cameron Smith who was a freshman-AA. The secondary<br />

returns intact and will be counted on.<br />

The schedule could be the toughest in the entire country as they open<br />

up with defending champ Alabama, play at Stanford, at Utah, at<br />

Washington and at UCLA in Pac-12 play and close with Notre Dame.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Alabama<br />

9/10 Sat Utah St<br />

9/17 Sat at Stanford<br />

9/23 Fri at Utah<br />

10/1 Sat Arizona St<br />

10/8 Sat Colorado<br />

10/15 Sat at Arizona<br />

10/27 Thu California<br />

11/5 Sat Oregon<br />

11/12 Sat at Washington<br />

11/19 Sat at UCLA<br />

11/26 Sat Notre Dame<br />

open<br />

USC is 9-0 ATS as a FAV after a<br />

loss on the road (s’/9/22/12)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 10-4 9-4 8-6<br />

Home 4-2 5-2 5-1 5-2<br />

Away 2-3 4-2 3-3 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-10 7-7 7-6 6-8<br />

HF 3-1 3-3 4-2 4-3<br />

HD 0-2 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-5 1-2 2-1 2-1<br />

AD 0-0 1-2 1-1 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-6 5-4 5-4 4-6<br />

Non Conf 0-4 2-3 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 4-0 4-0 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 2-0 1-0 3-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-6 3-6 2-6 2-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-6 3-6 2-6 2-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-8 4-10 5-7 6-7<br />

as HF 0-4 1-5 3-2 3-3<br />

as HD 1-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 3-2 2-1 1-2 0-3<br />

as AD 0-0 1-2 0-2 2-0<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-5 2-7 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 0-5 3-0 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-4 1-3 0-3 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 1-1 0-0 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 3-6 4-4 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 3-6 4-4 4-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-3 (T #1-#2 PAC-12 South)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #97 - #41<br />

SOS: #25 Adjusted Off – Def: #63 - #4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #45<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #21 (81.6)<br />

Utah<br />

The Utes in ’16<br />

HC here: Kyle Whittingham – 12 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #36<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.0% 14.3% 39.2% 39.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Utes are 10-1 ATS versus Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

non-conf foes the L3Y<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (+100)<br />

2015 7.5 (-130) 9-3 OV<br />

2014 4.5 (-165) 8-4 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (+145) 5-7 und<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 8.3 (30.6-22.3) -3.8 (363-367) 71-71 5.1-5.2 13<br />

’15 conf only 7.0 (30.0-23.0) 21.0 (386-365) 72-71 5.4-5.2 4<br />

2014 All 6.4 (31.3-24.9) -5.4 (388-393) 73-74 5.4-5.3 5<br />

’14 conf only -4.7 (24.6-29.2) -84.2 (344-428) 71-74 4.8-5.8 1<br />

2013 All 1.2 (29.2-28.0) -1.1 (397-398) 72-74 5.5-5.4 -9<br />

’13 conf only -6.7 (25.6-32.2) -39.8 (364-404) 74-72 5.0-5.6 -12<br />

2012 All 1.6 (26.7-25.1) -39.0 (324-363) 66-68 4.9-5.3 4<br />

’12 conf only -2.0 (26.1-28.1) -71.8 (323-395) 64-69 5.0-5.7 0<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

0% 21% 38% 83% 50% 12% 84%<br />

Last year the Utes had their best year since joining the Pac-12 as they<br />

got to 10 wins for the first time since 2010 (final year of Mountain<br />

West) and the dean of Pac-12 coaches is Kyle Wittingham who now<br />

enters his 12 th year here in Salt Lake City.<br />

The good news for Utah is that they return 6 starters on offense. The<br />

bad news for the Utes is that the 5 starters they lost include a 4-year<br />

starting QB, a 3-year starting center, a RB with back-to-back 1,000+<br />

yards and their top 3 receivers. There’s a 3-way battle at QB and RB<br />

Joe Williams proved capable in the short term as an injury<br />

replacement late last season.<br />

The defense also loses 5 starters including the team’s top 2 tacklers (2<br />

LB’s), two DL with a <strong>com</strong>bined 9 sacks and 19 TFL’s and the team’s #4<br />

tackler (SS). The DL rotated players and the secondary has depth so<br />

they should field another solid defense.<br />

The schedule should see them favored in their first 3 non-conference<br />

games and if they beat USC at home on September 23 rd , they could<br />

start 7-0 and be favored in as many as 9 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu S Utah<br />

9/10 Sat BYU<br />

9/17 Sat at San Jose St<br />

9/23 Fri USC<br />

10/1 Sat at California<br />

10/8 Sat Arizona<br />

10/15 Sat at Oregon St<br />

10/22 Sat at UCLA<br />

10/29 Sat Washington<br />

11/10 Thu at Arizona St<br />

11/19 Sat Oregon<br />

11/26 Sat at Colorado<br />

open<br />

Utah is 13-2 ATS as an AD off a<br />

loss at home (since/10/6/90)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 5-7 9-4 10-3<br />

Home 4-2 4-3 3-3 6-1<br />

Away 1-5 1-4 5-1 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 6-6 9-4 6-7<br />

HF 2-2 2-2 2-2 2-5<br />

HD 2-0 2-1 0-1 0-0<br />

AF 0-3 0-0 1-1 1-1<br />

AD 1-2 2-3 4-0 2-1<br />

vs Conf 4-5 3-6 5-4 3-6<br />

Non Conf 1-2 3-0 4-0 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-3 4-3 2-2 0-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 1-3 1-1 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 1-3 6-2 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 1-3 6-2 5-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 5-7 4-9 6-7<br />

as HF 2-1 3-1 2-2 0-7<br />

as HD 1-1 0-3 1-0 0-0<br />

as AF 2-1 0-0 1-1 2-0<br />

as AD 0-3 2-3 0-4 3-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 3-6 2-7 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 0-2 2-1 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 2-5 2-2 0-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 1-3 1-1 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 2-2 1-7 6-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 2-2 1-7 6-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 4-5 (T #4-#5 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-4<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #25 - #86<br />

SOS: #13 Adjusted Off – Def: #67 - #9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #27<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #35 (77.4)<br />

Washington<br />

The Huskies in ’16<br />

HC here: Chris Peterson – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.9*, DEF-6.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #29<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

15.7% 38.8% 15.0% 30.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Huskies are 0-8 ATS home<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being a HD (s’/9/15/07) <strong>2016</strong> 9 (-110)<br />

2015 4 (-350) 6-6 OV<br />

2014 9.5 (+175) 8-5 und<br />

2013 7.5 (-130) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 7-5 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 11.8 (30.6-18.8) 51.2 (403-352) 67-72 6.0-4.9 5<br />

’15 conf only 9.0 (29.0-20.0) 11.0 (388-377) 68-73 5.7-5.2 6<br />

2014 All 5.4 (30.2-24.8) -22.0 (389-411) 72-76 5.4-5.4 12<br />

’14 conf only 2.2 (26.2-24.0) -28.3 (378-406) 71-76 5.3-5.4 4<br />

2013 All 15.1 (37.9-22.8) 110.8 (499-389) 79-78 6.4-5.0 7<br />

’13 conf only 9.2 (37.1-27.9) 60.4 (476-416) 78-78 6.1-5.3 6<br />

2012 All -0.2 (24.0-24.2) -2.2 (355-357) 70-67 5.1-5.4 5<br />

’12 conf only -1.1 (23.3-24.4) 1.9 (359-357) 70-67 5.2-5.3 4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 80% 38% 80% 75% 64% 80%<br />

Chris Peterson took over a program that went 9-4 in 2013 but after<br />

going just 15-12 his first two years, expectations are through the roof<br />

heading into <strong>2016</strong> (won last 3 games of 2015 by 31 ppg).<br />

Last year the Huskies went with freshman QB Jake Browning and he<br />

performed admirably with a 63% <strong>com</strong>pletion rate and a 16-10 ratio.<br />

Another freshman in RB Myles Gaskin came on late averaging 130 ypg<br />

the season’s final 5 games. The receiving unit takes the biggest hit as<br />

Washington will be without their top 2, but they do get back John Ross<br />

who missed all of last season. The OL returns 9 of the top 10.<br />

The 3-4 defense loses a DT and a pair of LB’s that were #1 and #2 on<br />

the team in sacks. The secondary also loses their #1 tackler but 7 of<br />

the top 8 are back. What needs to be mentioned is that DC Pete<br />

Kwiatkowski last year had only 4 defensive starters returning and<br />

molded that group into the #9 ranked adjusted defense.<br />

The Huskies will be heavily favored in each of their 3 non-conference<br />

games but each of their 5 Pac-12 road games <strong>com</strong>e against teams that<br />

played in a bowl a year ago.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Rutgers<br />

9/10 Sat Idaho<br />

9/17 Sat Portland St<br />

9/24 Sat at Arizona<br />

9/30 Fri Stanford<br />

10/8 Sat at Oregon<br />

10/22 Sat Oregon St<br />

10/29 Sat at Utah<br />

11/5 Sat at California<br />

11/12 Sat USC<br />

11/19 Sat Arizona St<br />

11/25 Fri at Washington St<br />

open<br />

Washington is 7-0 ATS after a<br />

loss as a dog (since/ 11/1/14)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 9-4 8-6 7-6<br />

Home 5-1 6-1 4-3 4-3<br />

Away 2-4 1-3 4-2 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 7-5 7-7 8-4<br />

HF 1-1 4-2 2-2 4-2<br />

HD 4-0 0-1 1-2 0-1<br />

AF 1-1 0-0 2-1 1-0<br />

AD 1-3 1-2 2-1 2-1<br />

vs Conf 6-3 4-5 6-3 4-4<br />

Non Conf 2-2 3-0 1-4 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 4-1 1-3 4-1 4-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 1-2 2-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 5-2 3-5 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 5-2 3-5 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 6-7 3-10 5-8<br />

as HF 0-1 2-4 1-3 3-3<br />

as HD 1-3 0-1 1-2 0-1<br />

as AF 1-1 0-0 1-2 1-0<br />

as AD 2-2 3-0 0-2 0-4<br />

vs Conf 4-5 5-4 2-6 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 1-3 1-4 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 2-2 1-4 1-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 2-1 1-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-4 4-4 2-5 4-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-4 4-4 2-5 4-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 6-3 (#3 PAC-12 North)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #25 - #86<br />

SOS: #46 Adjusted Off – Def: #35 - #38<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #41<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #28 (80.0)<br />

Washington St<br />

The Cougars in ’16<br />

HC here: Mike Leach – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.9*, DEF-6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #56<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

6.7% 28.9% 28.2% 36.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Cougars are 18-4-1 ATS as an AD Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a home game (s’/11/15/08) <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-110)<br />

2015 5 (-130) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 5.5 (-130) 3-9 und<br />

2013 4.5 (-120) 6-6 OV<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 3.8 (31.5-27.7) 53.4 (470-416) 79-72 5.9-5.8 -1<br />

’15 conf only 3.3 (33.8-30.4) 45.1 (486-441) 81-75 6.0-5.9 -5<br />

2014 All -6.8 (31.8-38.6) 75.3 (518-442) 85-72 6.1-6.2 -17<br />

’14 conf only -11.7 (30.2-41.9) 46.0 (504-458) 87-70 5.8-6.6 -14<br />

2013 All -1.5 (31.0-32.5) -36.6 (421-458) 77-77 5.5-5.9 -5<br />

’13 conf only -10.0 (27.1-37.1) -84.4 (415-499) 79-78 5.3-6.4 -3<br />

2012 All -13.2 (20.4-33.7) -66.4 (360-426) 73-75 4.9-5.7 -9<br />

’12 conf only -16.3 (20.0-36.3) -52.9 (364-417) 76-73 4.8-5.7 -6<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 100% 77% 60% 49% 56% 85%<br />

It’s been an up-and-down tenure for Mike Leach here in Pullman but<br />

last season’s 9 wins were the most here since 2003 and the team<br />

finished the season on a 10-2 ATS run after getting upset by FCS<br />

Portland State in the opener.<br />

QB Luke Falk returns after throwing more passes than any one in<br />

college football a year ago as he attempted 53.8 passes/game with the<br />

#2 player averaging “only” 44.1. The offense also returns all their RB’s<br />

and losses only one receiver although he was one of 2 to top 1,000<br />

yards on the team. The OL losses two starters but they had a <strong>com</strong>bined<br />

79 career starts (69 career starts among the 3 returnees).<br />

The defense loses 4 starters in the front 7 and one in the secondary.<br />

Between the DL and LB’s they lose 51 of their 84 TFL’s and 21 of their<br />

29 sacks from last year. The secondary does return 7 of their top 8.<br />

The schedule is not overly difficult as they have two winnable road<br />

games in Pac-12 play (Oregon State and Colorado) but they do have to<br />

play Boise State, Oregon and Stanford by week 5 and could be favored<br />

in only 6-7 games overall.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat E Washington<br />

9/10 Sat at Boise St<br />

9/17 Sat Idaho<br />

10/1 Sat Oregon<br />

10/8 Sat at Stanford<br />

10/15 Sat UCLA<br />

10/22 Sat at Arizona St<br />

10/29 Sat at Oregon St<br />

11/5 Sat Arizona<br />

11/12 Sat California<br />

11/19 Sat at Colorado<br />

11/25 Fri Washington<br />

open<br />

Washington St is 12-0 ATS after<br />

a win as a HD (s’/Oct 23, 1990)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 6-7 3-9 9-4<br />

Home 2-3 3-2 1-5 4-2<br />

Away 1-5 3-3 2-3 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 9-4 4-7 10-3<br />

HF 0-2 3-0 1-1 3-2<br />

HD 2-1 0-2 1-3 1-0<br />

AF 0-1 1-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AD 2-3 5-0 2-1 5-1<br />

vs Conf 5-4 6-3 3-5 8-1<br />

Non Conf 0-3 3-1 1-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 5-4 4-2 3-4 4-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-2 3-2 2-3 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 0-2 4-2 1-2 6-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-2 4-2 1-2 6-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-6 6-6 5-8<br />

as HF 1-0 2-1 2-0 1-4<br />

as HD 2-1 2-0 1-3 0-1<br />

as AF 1-0 0-1 0-1 0-0<br />

as AD 1-4 1-4 2-2 4-2<br />

vs Conf 5-4 5-4 4-5 4-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 4-4 3-3 3-5 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 3-2 3-2 0-1<br />

Off SU Win 2-0 4-2 2-1 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-0 4-2 2-1 3-5


BRAD POWERS’<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

1 Alabama 95.47<br />

3 LSU 94.52<br />

6 Tennessee 91.94<br />

10 Ole Miss 89.31<br />

16 Georgia 85.49<br />

21 Florida 84.78<br />

23 Arkansas 84.66<br />

26 Texas A&M 84.32<br />

27 Auburn 83.98<br />

31 Miss St 82.58<br />

51 Missouri 75.37<br />

62 Vanderbilt 73.03<br />

63 S Carolina 72.43<br />

66 Kentucky 71.47


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 14-1, 7-1 (#1 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-3, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #45 - #3<br />

SOS: #1 Adjusted Off – Def: #16 - #1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #1<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #1 (98.2)<br />

Alabama<br />

The Crimson Tide in ’16<br />

HC here: Nick Saban – 10 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.4, DEF-4.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #1<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

17.3% 11.8% 29.7% 41.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Bama is 0-4 ATS the game<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a loss the last 4 years <strong>2016</strong> 10 (+100)<br />

2015 9.5 (-145) 11-1 OV<br />

2014 10.5 (-150) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 11.5 (+170) 11-1 und<br />

2012 10.5 (n/a) 11-1 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 19.9 (35.1-15.1) 150.7 (427-276) 73-64 5.9-4.3 10<br />

’15 conf only 14.1 (31.2-17.1) 129.6 (417-287) 75-62 5.6-4.6 1<br />

2014 All 18.5 (36.9-18.4) 156.1 (485-328) 73-68 6.7-4.9 -2<br />

’14 conf only 15.7 (34.2-18.6) 112.4 (451-339) 71-72 6.4-4.7 3<br />

2013 All 24.2 (38.2-13.9) 167.5 (454-287) 64-59 7.2-4.8 2<br />

’13 conf only 23.5 (38.1-14.6) 184.5 (491-307) 67-60 7.4-5.1 4<br />

2012 All 27.8 (38.7-10.9) 195.5 (446-250) 64-60 7.0-4.2 14<br />

’12 conf only 24.1 (37.2-13.1) 172.7 (443-270) 65-64 6.8-4.2 8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

9% 10% 75% 61% 47% 54% 59%<br />

The Crimson Tide have dominated college football for much of the last<br />

decade as they are <strong>com</strong>ing off their 4 th title in the last 7 years. While<br />

they must search for a new QB again, that job is always a little easier<br />

when your D hasn’t allowed over 19 ppg in any season since 2007.<br />

Each of the past 2 seasons, Saban has used a 5 th year senior at QB and<br />

this year junior Cooper Bateman has the most experience. The RB<br />

corps could be a different story as it’s the first time under Saban that<br />

they have had to replace their top 2. They do return their top 3<br />

receivers and while the OL also return 3 starters, replacing the top<br />

center in the NFL Draft is never easy.<br />

The defense must find 2 new DL starters, 3 LB’s and a DB while also<br />

having to replace long-time DC Kirby Smart. However, the Crimson<br />

Tide don’t rebuild on defense, they simply reload and this year is no<br />

different as they 5-6 All-Americans candidates led by DL Jonathan<br />

Allen, LB’s Tim Williams and Reuben Foster and DB Eddie Jackson.<br />

The schedule is among the toughest in the country as they have to play<br />

USC, Ole Miss, Tennessee and LSU all away from home.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) USC<br />

9/10 Sat WKU<br />

9/17 Sat at Ole Miss<br />

9/24 Sat Kent St<br />

10/1 Sat Kentucky<br />

10/8 Sat at Arkansas<br />

10/15 Sat at Tennessee<br />

10/22 Sat Texas A&M<br />

11/5 Sat at LSU<br />

11/12 Sat Miss St<br />

11/19 Sat Chattanooga<br />

11/26 Sat Auburn<br />

open<br />

Alabama is 17-5 ATS as an AD<br />

after a win as a HF (s’/ 9/20/86)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 13-1 11-2 12-2 14-1<br />

Home 6-1 7-0 7-0 6-1<br />

Away 4-0 3-1 3-1 4-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-7 7-6 5-8 8-7<br />

HF 2-5 5-2 3-3 2-5<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 3-1 1-3 1-3 3-0<br />

AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 5-4 5-3 5-4 5-4<br />

Non Conf 2-3 2-3 0-4 3-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-1 0-1 0-1 0-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 6-6 6-5 5-6 7-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-6 6-5 5-6 7-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-7 7-5 7-6 6-9<br />

as HF 1-5 3-4 3-2 2-5<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 2-2 3-1 1-3 1-2<br />

as AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

vs Conf 4-5 6-2 4-5 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 1-3 3-1 3-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 1-0 0-1 0-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-7 6-5 6-5 5-8<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-7 6-5 6-5 5-8


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 5-3 (T #3-#4 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #29 - #59<br />

SOS: #3 Adjusted Off – Def: #1 - #81<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #23<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #14 (84.9)<br />

Arkansas<br />

The Razorbacks in ’16<br />

HC here: Bret Bielema – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.7, DEF-9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #26<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

6.3% 20.4% 49.8% 23.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Hogs are 12-2 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a loss as an AF (s’/ 10/10/81) <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-120)<br />

2015 8.5 (+120) 7-5 und<br />

2014 4.5 (-130) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-140) 3-9 und<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 4-8 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 8.5 (35.9-27.4) 73.8 (465-392) 68-65 6.8-6.1 7<br />

’15 conf only 4.2 (34.4-30.1) 17.6 (433-415) 70-69 6.2-6.0 2<br />

2014 All 12.7 (31.9-19.2) 82.6 (406-323) 70-63 5.8-5.1 7<br />

’14 conf only -1.5 (20.6-22.1) -27.4 (354-382) 71-65 5.0-5.9 3<br />

2013 All -10.1 (20.7-30.8) -56.3 (357-413) 65-68 5.5-6.1 -9<br />

’13 conf only -21.0 (16.9-37.9) -138.2 (337-475) 63-69 5.4-6.9 -12<br />

2012 All -6.9 (23.5-30.4) 10.3 (420-410) 69-72 6.1-5.7 -19<br />

’12 conf only -12.5 (19.6-32.1) 1.0 (400-399) 71-66 5.6-6.1 -13<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

1% 33% 67% 40% 82% 100% 80%<br />

It’s usually a multi-year process when changing schemes especially<br />

when Bret Bielema changed the pass-happy attack of Petrino/Smith to<br />

his rush attack. After winning just 3 of his first 13 games, the Hogs have<br />

gone 15-10 since with only three losses by more than 7 points.<br />

Last year the Allen brothers <strong>com</strong>bined for 31 TD passes at QB but<br />

unfortunately Brandon had 30 and has graduated while Austin had<br />

one on 1-3 passing but won the job this spring. Another anomaly is at<br />

RB where LY’s leading rusher Alex Collins (1,577 yards) and Johnathan<br />

Williams (missed entire season) were both 5 th round picks this year.<br />

The receiving corps does return their top 5 WR’s but lose their TE who<br />

was a 2 nd rounder. The OL loses 3 starters and has a new coach.<br />

The defense which in a 5 game span allowed 46, 52 and 51 points has<br />

9 starters back. Of the Razorbacks top 12 tacklers only their No. 3<br />

departs so expect improvement for a unit that allowed 8.2 ppg and 69<br />

ypg more last year <strong>com</strong>pared to 2014.<br />

The Hogs do have a tough non-conference road trip to TCU and could<br />

find themselves a favorite in only 6 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat La Tech<br />

9/10 Sat at TCU<br />

9/17 Sat Texas St<br />

9/24 Sat (N) Texas A&M<br />

10/1 Sat Alcorn St<br />

10/8 Sat Alabama<br />

10/15 Sat Ole Miss<br />

10/22 Sat at Auburn<br />

11/5 Sat Florida<br />

11/12 Sat LSU<br />

11/19 Sat at Miss St<br />

11/26 Sat at Missouri<br />

open<br />

Arkansas is 7-0 ATS as a dog<br />

after a win (since/ Sep 13, 2014)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 3-9 7-6 8-5<br />

Home 3-3 2-3 5-1 4-2<br />

Away 1-4 0-5 1-3 3-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 4-8 10-3 8-4<br />

HF 1-3 1-1 4-0 3-3<br />

HD 1-1 1-2 2-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-1 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AD 1-3 2-3 2-1 4-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 3-5 5-3 6-1<br />

Non Conf 0-4 1-3 5-0 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-5 3-5 5-1 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-5 2-0 1-0<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 0-3 5-1 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 0-3 5-1 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-5 4-7 6-7<br />

as HF 2-1 0-2 1-1 4-2<br />

as HD 0-2 2-1 0-2 0-0<br />

as AF 1-0 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

as AD 3-1 4-1 2-1 1-3<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-3 2-6 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-2 2-1 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 5-3 2-3 1-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 3-3 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 2-1 1-4 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 2-1 1-4 4-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 2-3 (#7 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #94 - #72<br />

SOS: #4 Adjusted Off – Def: #41 - #37<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #8<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #31 (78.1)<br />

Auburn<br />

The Tigers in ’16<br />

HC here: Gus Malzahn– 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.9*, DEF-5.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #9<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

14.7% 21.3% 29.4% 34.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Tigers are 1-10 ATS as a FAV Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a road loss (s’/ 10/11/08) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 8.5 (-165) 6-6 und<br />

2014 9.5 (+150) 8-4 und<br />

2013 6.5 (+120) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.5 (27.5-26.0) -35.2 (370-405) 69-75 5.4-5.4 2<br />

’15 conf only -6.5 (22.1-28.6) -57.0 (360-417) 70-73 5.1-5.7 0<br />

2014 All 8.8 (35.5-26.7) 86.2 (485-399) 72-70 6.7-5.7 7<br />

’14 conf only 1.6 (34.4-32.8) 82.3 (520-438) 73-69 7.1-6.4 -2<br />

2013 All 14.8 (39.5-24.7) 80.6 (501-421) 72-71 6.9-6.0 0<br />

’13 conf only 8.9 (38.4-29.6) 18.6 (485-467) 73-73 6.7-6.4 -2<br />

2012 All -9.7 (18.7-28.3) -115.5 (305-421) 58-70 5.3-6.0 -12<br />

’12 conf only -23.9 (10.1-34.0) -214.3 (235-449) 56-69 4.2-6.6 -11<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 43% 35% 57% 80% 22% 65%<br />

After their unlikely SEC Championship season in 2013, the Tigers have<br />

seen their record get weaker in each of the last two years and despite<br />

a contract extension, head coach Gus Malzahn is on the hot seat (see<br />

Gene Chizik losing his job here 2 years removed from a National Title).<br />

The Tigers return 100% of their pass yards, but the QB position is as<br />

open as any with both of LY starters battling with a JUCO who was<br />

formerly at Florida St, John Franklin III. A former QB from a Florida<br />

college that went to a JUCO before Auburn…sound familiar? The<br />

offense must also replace a 1,000 yard RB and their top receiver.<br />

Expect LY’s #2 RB to fill that void while the receiver position could get<br />

filled by true freshman. The OL has to replace a pair of starters.<br />

The D needs to find 5 new starters including their #2-#5 tacklers. They<br />

lose all 3 starters at LB with one spot being be filled by an Illinois<br />

transfer with 26 games of starting experience. 6 of the top 8 return at<br />

DB but they do lose a pair of starters.<br />

The schedule sees the Tigers open the season with 5 straight home<br />

games but they could find themselves underdogs in 6 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Clemson<br />

9/10 Sat Arkansas St<br />

9/17 Sat Texas A&M<br />

9/24 Sat LSU<br />

10/1 Sat UL Monroe<br />

10/8 Sat at Miss St<br />

10/22 Sat Arkansas<br />

10/29 Sat at Ole Miss<br />

11/5 Sat Vanderbilt<br />

11/12 Sat at Georgia<br />

11/19 Sat Alabama A&M<br />

11/26 Sat at Alabama<br />

open<br />

Auburn is 0-7 ATS at home off a<br />

road game (since/ Sep 27, 2014)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 12-2 8-5 7-6<br />

Home 3-4 8-0 6-1 3-4<br />

Away 0-4 3-1 2-3 2-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-8 12-2 4-9 3-10<br />

HF 2-2 4-2 3-4 0-4<br />

HD 1-2 2-0 0-0 0-2<br />

AF 0-0 2-0 0-2 1-0<br />

AD 1-3 2-0 1-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 2-6 8-1 3-5 2-6<br />

Non Conf 2-2 4-1 1-4 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 3-5 1-0 0-4 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 1-0 0-3 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 11-1 3-5 1-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 11-1 3-5 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-7 8-6 6-5 4-7<br />

as HF 1-2 3-3 4-2 1-2<br />

as HD 1-2 1-1 0-0 0-2<br />

as AF 0-0 1-1 0-2 1-0<br />

as AD 2-2 2-0 2-1 2-1<br />

vs Conf 3-5 6-3 5-3 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 2-3 1-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 0-1 1-2 1-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 0-1 1-1 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 8-4 4-3 3-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 8-4 4-3 3-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-4, 7-1 (#1 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #113 - #8<br />

SOS: #16 Adjusted Off – Def: #71 - #11<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #21<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #29 (79.8)<br />

Florida<br />

The Gators in ’16<br />

HC here: Jim McElwain – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.3*, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #13<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.3% 30.2% 32.1% 24.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Gators are 1-10 ATS home Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being a dog (s’/ 9/28/02) <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-125)<br />

2015 7.5 (+110) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-135) 6-5 *<br />

2013 9.5 (+175) 4-8 und<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 11-1 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 4.9 (23.2-18.3) 23.8 (334-310) 65-67 5.1-4.7 8<br />

’15 conf only 7.4 (22.7-15.2) 22.9 (323-300) 65-65 5.0-4.6 8<br />

2014 All 9.2 (30.2-21.1) 37.8 (368-330) 70-72 5.2-4.6 6<br />

’14 conf only -0.9 (24.9-25.8) -17.9 (338-356) 70-72 4.9-4.9 -1<br />

2013 All -2.2 (18.8-21.1) 2.4 (317-314) 66-59 4.8-5.3 -2<br />

’13 conf only -0.5 (19.9-20.4) 3.9 (313-309) 67-61 4.7-5.1 1<br />

2012 All 12.0 (26.5-14.5) 47.3 (334-287) 64-66 5.3-4.4 15<br />

’12 conf only 14.0 (25.9-11.9) 46.9 (329-282) 64-67 5.1-4.2 10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

58% 36% 60% 61% 66% 56% 54%<br />

Not much was expected of the Gators last year with a total of 11<br />

returning starters in Jim McElwain’s first season. However, despite<br />

scoring 7.1 fewer ppg than in 2014 when they went 7-5, they<br />

somehow managed a 10-4 record (did lose last 3 games).<br />

This year they have 6 back on offense but that number is really 5 as<br />

QB Treon Harris will switch to receiver. The Gators new QB will most<br />

likely be an Oregon St transfer. Florida also must replace a 1,000 yard<br />

rusher and the receiving unit does lose their #2 guy and their TE but<br />

this year’s unit can be just as good. The OL losses a pair of starters but<br />

a duo of true freshman who <strong>com</strong>bined for 5 starts fill the gap.<br />

The defense not only has to replace 5 starters but all 5 were NFL draft<br />

choices including two first rounders from the secondary. While the<br />

losses are huge the team had 18 players make 20 or more tackles and<br />

12 are back.<br />

The early schedule will see the Gators big favorites in the first 3 games<br />

but they do pull LSU and Arkansas from the SEC West and also play<br />

Tennessee, Georgia and Florida St all away from home.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat UMass<br />

9/10 Sat Kentucky<br />

9/17 Sat North Texas<br />

9/24 Sat at Tennessee<br />

10/1 Sat at Vanderbilt<br />

10/8 Sat LSU<br />

10/15 Sat Missouri<br />

10/29 Sat (N) Georgia<br />

11/5 Sat at Arkansas<br />

11/12 Sat South Carolina<br />

11/19 Sat Presbyterian<br />

11/26 Sat at Florida St<br />

open<br />

Florida is 9-2 to the UNDER as a<br />

dog the last 3 years<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 4-8 7-5 10-4<br />

Home 7-0 3-3 3-3 6-1<br />

Away 4-0 1-4 2-2 3-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-6 3-8 7-5 8-5<br />

HF 2-4 1-4 2-3 1-3<br />

HD 1-0 0-1 0-1 1-1<br />

AF 2-0 1-2 1-0 3-0<br />

AD 2-0 1-1 2-1 0-0<br />

vs Conf 6-2 3-4 3-5 7-1<br />

Non Conf 1-4 0-4 4-0 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 0-1 1-5 4-1 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-1 2-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 7-4 2-2 2-4 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 7-4 2-2 2-4 5-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 4-8 7-5 6-8<br />

as HF 1-4 3-2 4-1 2-2<br />

as HD 0-1 0-1 1-0 0-2<br />

as AF 1-1 1-2 0-1 0-3<br />

as AD 2-0 0-2 1-2 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 3-5 5-3 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 1-3 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-1 4-3 3-2 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-2 1-1 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-5 0-4 3-3 3-7<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-5 0-4 3-3 3-7


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 5-3 (T #2-#3 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #83 - #7<br />

SOS: #50 Adjusted Off – Def: #49 - #8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #5<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #22 (81.3)<br />

Georgia<br />

The Bulldogs in ’16<br />

HC here: Kirby Smart – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.5*, DEF-6.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #7<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.5% 29.7% 27.3% 32.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bulldogs are 6-0 ATS on Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the road off an upset win<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-110)<br />

2015 9 (-135) 9-3 push<br />

2014 9.5 (+100) 9-3 und<br />

2013 9.5 (-195) 8-4 und<br />

2012 9.5 (n/a) 11-1 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 9.4 (26.3-16.9) 71.3 (377-306) 63-64 6.0-4.8 4<br />

’15 conf only 3.0 (22.9-19.9) 38.4 (362-324) 66-66 5.5-4.9 1<br />

2014 All 20.6 (41.3-20.7) 120.5 (458-337) 67-70 6.8-4.8 16<br />

’14 conf only 14.4 (38.8-24.4) 82.2 (436-353) 68-69 6.4-5.2 14<br />

2013 All 7.7 (36.7-29.0) 108.6 (484-376) 73-69 6.7-5.4 -7<br />

’13 conf only 4.8 (36.5-31.8) 71.5 (461-389) 72-69 6.4-5.7 -4<br />

2012 All 18.1 (37.8-19.6) 109.9 (468-358) 66-69 7.1-5.2 11<br />

’12 conf only 13.2 (32.9-19.7) 83.3 (434-351) 68-66 6.4-5.3 9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

94% 86% 58% 57% 27% 45% 90%<br />

Despite reaching double-digit wins in 9 of his 15 seasons in Athens<br />

(including 4 of the last 5), Mark Richt was let go at the end of last<br />

season while former Alabama DC Kirby Smart takes over.<br />

The Bulldogs averaged almost 39 ppg from 2012-2014 but last year fell<br />

back to 26.3 ppg. This year they only have to replace 3 starters. They<br />

could start a true freshman at QB in Jacob Eason but if healthy (big if),<br />

Nick Chubb and Sony Michel could be the best 1-2 punch at RB in the<br />

country. They will have to find a new go-to WR as Malcolm Mitchell<br />

was a 4 th round draft choice while also having to replace a pair of OL<br />

including a 5 th round pick.<br />

On defense, the good news is that the Bulldogs secondary returns<br />

intact but the bad news is that 5 of the front 7 depart. The 16.9 ppg<br />

the D allowed LY was their best since 2005 and last season they<br />

actually returned only 5 starters.<br />

The schedule includes a neutral site opener vs North Carolina (in<br />

Atlanta) and they play 3 of their first 4 conference games on the road.<br />

They do get the all-important game vs Tennessee at home.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) North Carolina<br />

9/10 Sat Nicholls<br />

9/17 Sat at Missouri<br />

9/24 Sat at Ole Miss<br />

10/1 Sat Tennessee<br />

10/8 Sat at South Carolina<br />

10/15 Sat Vanderbilt<br />

10/29 Sat (N) Florida<br />

11/5 Sat at Kentucky<br />

11/12 Sat Auburn<br />

11/19 Sat ULL<br />

11/26 Sat Georgia Tech<br />

open<br />

Georgia is 8-16 ATS off a<br />

straight-up win (since/ 9/21/13)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 12-2 8-5 10-3 10-3<br />

Home 7-0 5-1 6-1 6-1<br />

Away 3-1 2-3 2-1 3-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-6 3-9 8-5 5-7<br />

HF 3-4 2-4 4-3 2-4<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 2-1 1-3 2-1 1-2<br />

AD 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 6-3 2-5 4-4 3-5<br />

Non Conf 2-3 1-4 4-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-1 3-0 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 7-4 1-7 4-5 4-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 7-4 1-7 4-5 4-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 9-4 9-4 2-10<br />

as HF 3-2 5-1 5-2 1-5<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-2 3-1 2-1 1-2<br />

as AD 0-1 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 6-2 6-2 2-6<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-2 3-2 0-4<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-2 2-1 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-1 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-5 6-2 6-3 1-8<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-5 6-2 6-3 1-8


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 2-6 (T #4-#5 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #89 - #60<br />

SOS: #65 Adjusted Off – Def: #69 - #85<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #38<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #73 (66.9)<br />

Kentucky<br />

The Wildcats in ’16<br />

HC here: Mark Stoops – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9, DEF-4.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #34<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.5% 36.9% 17.7% 31.9%<br />

Wildcats are 2-13 ATS after<br />

a loss as a HF (s’/ 9/27/80)<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 5 (-110)<br />

2015 6 (-145) 5-7 und<br />

2014 3.5 (-175) 5-7 OV<br />

2013 3.5 (-160) 2-10 und<br />

2012 4.5 (n/a) 2-10 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.8 (24.7-27.4) -22.2 (372-394) 68-71 5.5-5.6 -2<br />

’15 conf only -10.1 (17.5-27.6) -44.6 (351-396) 68-68 5.2-5.8 -6<br />

2014 All -2.1 (29.2-31.2) -22.4 (385-407) 71-74 5.4-5.5 8<br />

’14 conf only -14.6 (22.9-37.5) -81.2 (360-441) 72-74 5.0-5.9 -2<br />

2013 All -10.7 (20.5-31.2) -86.0 (341-427) 65-68 5.3-6.3 0<br />

’13 conf only -21.6 (14.8-36.4) -190.8 (275-466) 62-69 4.4-6.8 0<br />

2012 All -13.1 (17.9-31.0) -76.0 (315-391) 66-71 4.8-5.5 -4<br />

’12 conf only -25.2 (11.1-36.4) -169.0 (255-424) 62-71 4.2-6.0 0<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

14% 97% 100% 77% 46% 5% 72%<br />

The Wildcats have been one play away from a bowl in each of the last<br />

two years. They started 5-1 in 2014 but finished 5-7 and then last year<br />

started 4-1 but again finished 5-7.<br />

The Wildcats offensive production dropped last season and while they<br />

had a returning QB he finished the year with a 9-14 ratio and<br />

transferred. Sophomore Drew Baker will get his chance and by getting<br />

two starts last year, it puts him ahead on the curve. He is surrounded<br />

by an experienced RB and WR corps that returns <strong>com</strong>pletely intact.<br />

The only other loss was at LT (87 career starts return).<br />

Kentucky uses a NB often so the percentages above are from a 4-2-5<br />

defense from which the Wildcats have to replace 2 DL, both LB’s and<br />

a pair of DB’s. Overall, they lose 6 of their top 7 tacklers but all the<br />

replacements saw plenty of action. The new NT made 4 starts, the two<br />

DB’s made a <strong>com</strong>bined 9 starts and the LB’s are Power 5 transfers.<br />

The Wildcats should get out to a strong start once again as they could<br />

be favored in 4 of their first 6 games and also play FCS Austin Peay<br />

late. They’ll have to pull an upset to get to that coveted bowl game.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Southern Miss<br />

9/10 Sat at Florida<br />

9/17 Sat New Mexico St<br />

9/24 Sat South Carolina<br />

10/1 Sat at Alabama<br />

10/8 Sat Vanderbilt<br />

10/22 Sat Miss St<br />

10/29 Sat at Missouri<br />

11/5 Sat Georgia<br />

11/12 Sat at Tennessee<br />

11/19 Sat Austin Peay<br />

11/26 Sat at Louisville<br />

open<br />

Kentucky is 2-13 ATS as a HD<br />

the last four seasons<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 2-10 2-10 5-7 5-7<br />

Home 2-5 2-5 5-2 4-4<br />

Away 0-5 0-4 0-5 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 4-8 6-5 3-9<br />

HF 2-1 2-0 3-1 2-2<br />

HD 1-3 0-5 1-1 0-4<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 0-5 2-2 2-3 1-3<br />

vs Conf 1-7 2-6 2-5 2-6<br />

Non Conf 2-2 2-2 4-0 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-6 4-5 1-4 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-4 2-4 1-3 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 0-2 0-2 4-1 1-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-2 0-2 4-1 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 5-7 8-4 6-5<br />

as HF 2-0 0-2 2-2 3-1<br />

as HD 1-3 2-3 3-0 3-1<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 2-3 2-2 3-2 0-3<br />

vs Conf 2-6 4-4 5-3 2-5<br />

vs Non Conf 3-0 1-3 3-1 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 3-5 3-6 4-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-3 2-4 4-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-1 1-1 3-2 3-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-1 1-1 3-2 3-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-3, 5-3 (T #3-#4 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #39 - #25<br />

SOS: #6 Adjusted Off – Def: #17 - #21<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #6<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #18 (84.2)<br />

LSU<br />

The Tigers in ’16<br />

HC here: Les Miles – 12 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.2*, DEF-9.4<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #3<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

19.3% 26.1% 41.7% 12.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Tigers are 0-7 ATS away after a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

game at home (s’/ 10/19/13) <strong>2016</strong> 10 (+100)<br />

2015 8 (-145) 8-3 *<br />

2014 8.5 (-215) 8-4 und<br />

2013 9.5 (+120) 9-3 und<br />

2012 10.5 (n/a) 10-2 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 8.6 (32.8-24.2) 90.1 (437-347) 65-67 6.7-5.2 7<br />

’15 conf only 1.8 (26.5-24.8) 51.6 (402-350) 67-64 6.0-5.5 2<br />

2014 All 10.1 (27.6-17.5) 70.6 (387-317) 69-65 5.6-4.9 3<br />

’14 conf only -1.6 (19.1-20.8) -7.8 (340-347) 69-65 4.9-5.3 1<br />

2013 All 13.8 (35.8-22.0) 112.6 (453-341) 65-67 6.9-5.1 0<br />

’13 conf only 7.4 (32.2-24.9) 32.5 (432-399) 66-70 6.6-5.7 0<br />

2012 All 12.2 (29.8-17.5) 66.6 (374-308) 68-69 5.5-4.5 16<br />

’12 conf only 3.8 (22.5-18.8) 23.1 (354-331) 71-68 5.0-4.9 12<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 100% 89% 62% 100% 50% 89%<br />

Last year, the Tigers started off 7-0, but 3 straight double-digit losses<br />

put head coach Les Miles firmly on the hot seat. However, Miles saved<br />

his job with a pair of wins, signed another top recruiting class and the<br />

Tigers are a preseason favorite in the SEC thanks to 17 returning<br />

starters (tied for most in SEC).<br />

QB Brandon Harris who now has 13 career starts should be improved<br />

and it helps that one of the nation’s top RB’s, Leonard Fournette<br />

(1,953 yds, 6.5 ypc, 22 TD’s) lines up behind him. The Tigers also return<br />

their top 4 receivers. Two new starters are needed on the OL but both<br />

replacements did make a lone start last season.<br />

New DC Dave Aranda inherits an experienced unit as the<br />

D only has 2 starters to replace (both were drafted). The Tigers<br />

however rotate players often and not only do the two replacements<br />

have staring experience, they are both seniors.<br />

While tough, the schedule is manageable as they open up with<br />

Wisconsin at Lambeau Field. They get all-important games vs Ole Miss<br />

and Alabama at home and currently are favored in every game.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Wisconsin<br />

9/10 Sat Jacksonville St<br />

9/17 Sat Miss St<br />

9/24 Sat at Auburn<br />

10/1 Sat Missouri<br />

10/8 Sat at Florida<br />

10/15 Sat Southern Miss<br />

10/22 Sat Ole Miss<br />

11/5 Sat Alabama<br />

11/12 Sat at Arkansas<br />

11/19 Sat South Alabama<br />

11/24 Thu at Texas A&M<br />

open<br />

LSU is 7-0 ATS as an AF after a<br />

loss as a HF (since/ Sep 7, 2002)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-3 10-3 8-5 9-3<br />

Home 7-1 7-0 5-2 6-1<br />

Away 3-1 1-3 2-2 2-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-8 6-7 6-5 5-6<br />

HF 3-4 3-4 3-1 4-2<br />

HD 1-0 0-0 1-1 0-0<br />

AF 1-3 1-1 2-0 0-2<br />

AD 0-0 1-1 0-2 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 4-4 3-4<br />

Non Conf 2-3 2-3 2-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-1 3-1 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 2-0 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-6 3-6 3-4 4-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-6 3-6 3-4 4-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 9-4 5-8 7-5<br />

as HF 5-1 5-2 2-3 5-2<br />

as HD 0-1 0-0 0-2 0-0<br />

as AF 0-4 1-1 1-1 1-1<br />

as AD 0-0 2-0 0-2 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 5-3 2-6 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 4-1 3-2 4-0<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 2-1 2-2 0-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 1-1 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-7 6-3 2-6 7-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-7 6-3 2-6 7-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (#2 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #10 - #55<br />

SOS: #11 Adjusted Off – Def: #2 - #15<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #17<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #8 (87.7)<br />

Mississippi<br />

The Rebels in ’16<br />

HC here: Hugh Freeze – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.5*, DEF-5.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #6<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.3% 15.0% 37.1% 40.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Rebels are 15-5 ATS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

versus non-conf foes the L4Y <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (+100)<br />

2015 8.5 (-110) 9-3 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-170) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (+160) 7-5 und<br />

2012 5 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 18.2 (40.8-22.6) 131.9 (518-386) 73-79 7.1-4.9 0<br />

’15 conf only 6.0 (32.2-26.2) 56.2 (470-414) 75-80 6.2-5.2 1<br />

2014 All 12.3 (28.3-16.0) 90.1 (419-329) 70-70 6.0-4.7 7<br />

’14 conf only 8.4 (25.2-16.9) 46.0 (405-359) 69-71 5.9-5.1 4<br />

2013 All 6.3 (30.0-23.7) 102.8 (473-370) 78-71 6.0-5.3 1<br />

’13 conf only -5.0 (22.5-27.5) -1.0 (422-423) 77-73 5.5-5.8 0<br />

2012 All 3.8 (31.5-27.6) 47.9 (424-376) 74-70 5.7-5.4 -1<br />

’12 conf only -1.9 (28.0-29.9) 5.3 (396-391) 74-70 5.4-5.6 2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

93% 66% 53% 37% 68% 54% 58%<br />

Hugh Freeze has done a great job in Oxford improving the Rebels<br />

record in each of his four seasons and last year led Ole Miss to their<br />

first Sugar Bowl win since 1969.<br />

The great news for Ole Miss in <strong>2016</strong> is that they return an All-SEC QB<br />

in Chad Kelly who threw for 4,000 yards with a 31-13 ratio and had 10<br />

rushing TD’s. They also return one WR starter, their TE plus a handful<br />

of part-time OL starters. The bad news is they lose their leading rusher,<br />

top 2 WR’s who were both drafted their 5 main OL starters two of<br />

which were drafted.<br />

Of the 6 starters Ole Miss lost on defense, one was a 1 st rounder and<br />

the other 5 were all NFL free agents. The strength is at CB were they<br />

return intact plus they have a 17 game starter at NT who took a<br />

medical red-shirt LY. The Rebels also return a “part-time” starting LB<br />

who actually led the team in tackles plus add an Oregon St LB with<br />

double digit starts over his last 2 seasons.<br />

We’ll know just how good the Rebels are right away as they play<br />

Florida St, Alabama and Georgia all in the first month of the season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/5 Mon (N) Florida St<br />

9/10 Sat Wofford<br />

9/17 Sat Alabama<br />

9/24 Sat Georgia<br />

10/1 Sat Memphis<br />

10/15 Sat at Arkansas<br />

10/22 Sat at LSU<br />

10/29 Sat Auburn<br />

11/5 Sat Ga Southern<br />

11/12 Sat at Texas A&M<br />

11/19 Sat at Vanderbilt<br />

11/26 Sat Miss St<br />

open<br />

Ole Miss is 7-1 to the UNDER<br />

after a loss by 10+ pts the L4Y<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 8-5 9-4 10-3<br />

Home 4-3 5-2 6-1 6-1<br />

Away 1-3 2-3 1-2 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 10-3 7-6 8-5 9-4<br />

HF 4-1 2-2 3-2 5-2<br />

HD 1-1 2-1 2-0 0-0<br />

AF 1-0 1-2 0-2 2-2<br />

AD 2-1 1-1 1-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 6-2 3-5 5-3 5-3<br />

Non Conf 4-1 4-1 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 5-1 3-2 1-2 3-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 0-2 1-0 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 4-2 3-4 6-3 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-2 3-4 6-3 5-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 6-7 2-10 4-8<br />

as HF 3-1 3-1 2-2 3-4<br />

as HD 1-1 1-2 0-2 0-0<br />

as AF 0-1 1-2 0-2 0-3<br />

as AD 1-2 1-1 0-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 3-5 1-7 2-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 3-2 1-3 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 4-2 1-4 1-1 0-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 0-2 0-1 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-4 4-3 1-8 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-4 4-3 1-8 3-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 4-4 (T #5-#6 SEC)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #31 - #57<br />

SOS: #10 Adjusted Off – Def: #15 - #34<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #18<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #19 (83.9)<br />

Mississippi St<br />

The Bulldogs in ’16<br />

HC here: Dan Mullen – 8 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.2, DEF-5.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #31<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.2% 0.0% 65.0% 29.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bulldogs are 6-1 to the<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

UNDER as a HD the L4Y<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-120)<br />

2015 7 (-115) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (-115) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (+140) 6-6 OV<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 11.2 (34.4-23.2) 69.3 (460-391) 71-73 6.5-5.3 -4<br />

’15 conf only 0.2 (26.2-26.0) 28.5 (444-416) 76-72 5.8-5.8 -6<br />

2014 All 15.2 (36.9-21.7) 89.4 (514-424) 77-75 6.7-5.7 0<br />

’14 conf only 11.2 (33.8-22.5) 72.2 (497-425) 78-74 6.4-5.8 -1<br />

2013 All 4.7 (27.7-23.0) 85.1 (434-349) 74-64 5.9-5.5 7<br />

’13 conf only -7.2 (22.4-29.6) 2.6 (407-404) 73-68 5.6-6.0 5<br />

2012 All 6.2 (29.5-23.3) -6.1 (381-387) 65-71 5.9-5.5 16<br />

’12 conf only -2.6 (25.2-27.9) -21.4 (377-399) 67-69 5.7-5.8 6<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

8% 69% 58% 63% 67% 63% 77%<br />

Prior to the Dan Mullen era, the Bulldogs went through 7 losing<br />

seasons in 8 years. However, after going 5-7 his first season, Mullen<br />

has now led the Bulldogs to 6 consecutive winning years.<br />

This year, the offense must find a replacement for the all-everything<br />

Dak Prescott who threw for 3,793 yards, was the Bulldogs leading<br />

rusher and was responsible for 39 total TD’s while throwing just 5<br />

INT’s. A four QB battle ended spring in a tie. The RB unit returns intact<br />

and while they lose their No. 2 receiver (918 yds) and starting TE, they<br />

return the rest of the top 7 included Fred Ross (1,007 yards). The 2<br />

new OL starters will be a back-up and a JUCO who red-shirted here LY.<br />

It’s not often a defense has to replace 5 starters yet returns 6 of their<br />

top 7 tacklers but that is the case for the Bulldogs in <strong>2016</strong>. They do<br />

lose their top DL in Chris Jones, and a draft choice at CB.<br />

The schedule is about as favorable as it gets for an SEC team as they<br />

pull Kentucky and South Carolina from the SEC East, all 4 nonconference<br />

games are winnable and they host Auburn, Texas A&M<br />

and Arkansas. The Bulldogs could be favored in as many as 8 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat South Alabama<br />

9/10 Sat South Carolina<br />

9/17 Sat at LSU<br />

9/24 Sat at UMass<br />

10/8 Sat Auburn<br />

10/14 Fri at BYU<br />

10/22 Sat at Kentucky<br />

10/29 Sat Samford<br />

11/5 Sat Texas A&M<br />

11/12 Sat at Alabama<br />

11/19 Sat Arkansas<br />

11/26 Sat at Ole Miss<br />

open<br />

Miss St is 4-16-2 as a dog after a<br />

game as a HD (s’/ 11/28/02)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 7-6 10-3 9-4<br />

Home 6-1 5-2 7-0 4-3<br />

Away 2-3 0-3 3-2 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 8-5 7-5 8-5<br />

HF 5-1 2-2 3-3 3-1<br />

HD 0-1 2-1 1-0 1-2<br />

AF 1-1 0-0 1-1 1-1<br />

AD 0-3 2-1 2-0 2-1<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-3 5-2 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-3 3-2 2-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-3 5-1 1-1 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 4-1 0-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 4-4 3-3 5-4 5-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-4 3-3 5-4 5-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-7 4-8 6-7 6-5<br />

as HF 2-3 2-2 3-3 3-0<br />

as HD 0-1 1-2 0-1 0-2<br />

as AF 0-2 0-0 1-2 1-1<br />

as AD 2-1 1-2 1-1 1-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 2-6 3-5 2-4<br />

vs Non Conf 0-3 2-2 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-1 3-3 1-1 4-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 2-3 1-0 3-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-6 1-4 5-5 2-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-6 1-4 5-5 2-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 1-7 (T #6-#7 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #126- #6<br />

SOS: #44 Adjusted Off – Def: #113 - #16<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #25<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #63 (70.2)<br />

Missouri<br />

The Tigers in ’16<br />

HC here: Barry Odom – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.7, DEF-8.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #51<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.5% 22.3% 27.7% 40.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Tigers are 3-14 ATS O/U Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

as a HF the last 4 seasons <strong>2016</strong> 5.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-130) 5-7 und<br />

2014 7.5 (-130) 10-2 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-180) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 7 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.6 (13.6-16.2) -21.1 (280-301) 64-70 4.4-4.3 -1<br />

’15 conf only -9.5 ( 9.1-18.6) -90.2 (245-335) 61-73 4.0-4.6 -1<br />

2014 All 6.7 (27.8-21.1) 20.4 (367-347) 68-72 5.4-4.8 9<br />

’14 conf only 1.0 (22.7-21.7) 8.0 (332-324) 68-71 4.9-4.5 3<br />

2013 All 16.1 (39.1-23.1) 73.0 (491-418) 74-77 6.6-5.4 16<br />

’13 conf only 13.0 (36.1-23.1) 56.2 (468-412) 71-75 6.6-5.5 12<br />

2012 All -2.7 (25.8-28.4) -34.3 (356-391) 72-71 4.9-5.5 1<br />

’12 conf only -11.1 (21.9-33.0) -73.6 (335-408) 73-71 4.6-5.8 -6<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

67% 41% 71% 18% 100% 52% 64%<br />

After back-to-back appearances in the SEC Title game, the Tigers took<br />

a step back last year going 5-7 and long-time head coach Gary Pinkel<br />

retired. They hired last year’s DC Barry Odom (also a player here) but<br />

he has some big shoes to fill.<br />

The Tigers offense went into last season with a returning starting QB<br />

but Maty Mauk was suspended after 4 games and the unit only<br />

averaged 9 ppg in conference play. Drew Lock got the last 8 starts as a<br />

true and should be much improved. While they return their leading<br />

rusher, it looks as though Oklahoma transfer Alex Ross will be their goto<br />

guy. The receiving unit wel<strong>com</strong>es back 8 of their top 10. The OL,<br />

however, has to replace 4 starters (lose 146 career starts).<br />

The defense does lose their #1 tackler but the Tigers had the #16<br />

adjusted defense last year and return 16 of their top 20 tacklers so<br />

expectations will again be high.<br />

The non-conference schedule will have them favored in 3 of their 4<br />

games and they host Kentucky and Vanderbilt meaning they are an<br />

upset away from being right back in a bowl.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at West Virginia<br />

9/10 Sat Eastern Mich<br />

9/17 Sat Georgia<br />

9/24 Sat Delaware St<br />

10/1 Sat at LSU<br />

10/15 Sat at Florida<br />

10/22 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

10/29 Sat Kentucky<br />

11/5 Sat at South Carolina<br />

11/12 Sat Vanderbilt<br />

11/19 Sat at Tennessee<br />

11/26 Sat Arkansas<br />

open<br />

Missouri is 12-2 ATS as an AF<br />

after a win (since/ Sep 8, 07)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 12-2 11-3 5-7<br />

Home 3-4 6-1 5-2 3-3<br />

Away 2-3 5-0 5-0 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 10-3 9-5 3-9<br />

HF 2-3 3-2 2-3 1-2<br />

HD 0-2 1-0 1-1 0-3<br />

AF 0-0 4-0 1-0 0-2<br />

AD 3-2 1-0 4-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 7-2 6-3 2-6<br />

Non Conf 2-2 3-1 3-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 2-0 3-0 3-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 1-0 2-0 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-4 7-3 6-4 0-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-4 7-3 6-4 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 8-6 7-7 1-10<br />

as HF 1-3 1-5 1-4 0-2<br />

as HD 2-0 1-0 0-2 1-2<br />

as AF 0-0 3-1 1-0 0-2<br />

as AD 2-3 1-0 3-1 0-3<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-4 4-5 1-7<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-2 3-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 1-1 2-1 1-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-3 1-0 2-0 0-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-3 6-5 4-6 0-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-3 6-5 4-6 0-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 1-7 (T #6-#7 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #99 - #96<br />

SOS: #37 Adjusted Off – Def: #55 - #87<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #19<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #60 (70.9)<br />

South Carolina<br />

The Gamecocks in ’16<br />

HC here: Will Muschamp – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.5*, DEF-4.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #24<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.1% 15.9% 36.0% 39.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Gamecocks are 2-12 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a win as a HD (s’/ 11/17/84) <strong>2016</strong> 5 (-110)<br />

2015 7 (-120) 3-9 und<br />

2014 9.5 (-105) 6-6 und<br />

2013 9.5 (-195) 10-2 OV<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -5.6 (21.9-27.5) -67.7 (362-430) 65-71 5.6-6.0 5<br />

’15 conf only -10.2 (20.1-30.4) -109.3 (339-448) 62-74 5.5-6.1 -1<br />

2014 All 2.2 (32.6-30.4) 9.9 (443-433) 73-70 6.1-6.2 -2<br />

’14 conf only -2.8 (34.0-36.8) -5.0 (454-459) 76-71 6.0-6.5 -6<br />

2013 All 13.8 (34.1-20.3) 102.3 (452-350) 71-64 6.4-5.5 13<br />

’13 conf only 9.4 (31.6-22.2) 101.8 (449-347) 71-63 6.3-5.5 1<br />

2012 All 13.3 (31.5-18.2) 61.0 (377-316) 66-68 5.7-4.7 4<br />

’12 conf only 7.5 (28.6-21.1) 35.5 (338-302) 65-66 5.2-4.6 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

93% 45% 27% 42% 49% 26% 46%<br />

The Gamecocks managed 3 consecutive 11-2 season but after a<br />

disappointing 2014 (just 7-6) and then a 2-4 start in 2015, long-time<br />

HC Steve Spurrier retired and the Gamecocks finished just 3-9. This<br />

year they made a surprising hire bringing in Will Muschamp who was<br />

fired from Florida after the 2014 season.<br />

The Gamecocks offense could struggle as they averaged 10.7 points<br />

per game less in 2015 than the previous season and have only 4<br />

starters back this year. They could go to a true freshman at QB that<br />

was in for spring and must also replace their #1 and #3 RB’s plus two<br />

receivers that were drafted as well as 3 OL starters.<br />

Into spring, the Gamecocks had 6 returning starters on defense but<br />

their star LB Skai Moore who led in tackles each of the last 3 years was<br />

injured and will miss this season. Now there are a pair of starters<br />

missing from all 3 defensive units which ranked just #87 in adjusted D.<br />

The schedule is not kind as 3 of their first 4 games are on the road ALL<br />

versus SEC <strong>com</strong>petition! They also have to play at Florida and at<br />

Clemson and it could be another losing season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at Vanderbilt<br />

9/10 Sat at Miss St<br />

9/17 Sat East Carolina<br />

9/24 Sat at Kentucky<br />

10/1 Sat Texas A&M<br />

10/8 Sat Georgia<br />

10/22 Sat UMass<br />

10/29 Sat Tennessee<br />

11/5 Sat Missouri<br />

11/12 Sat at Florida<br />

11/19 Sat W Carolina<br />

11/26 Sat at Clemson<br />

open<br />

South Carolina is 9-0-1 ATS after<br />

a win as an AD (s’/ 11/5/05)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 11-2 7-6 3-9<br />

Home 7-0 7-0 4-3 2-4<br />

Away 3-2 3-2 2-3 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-4 7-6 5-8 6-6<br />

HF 5-2 4-3 1-5 2-2<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-1<br />

AF 1-1 1-2 0-2 0-0<br />

AD 2-1 1-1 2-1 2-3<br />

vs Conf 5-3 3-5 3-5 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 4-1 2-3 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 0-2 1-1 2-4 4-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-1 1-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 8-1 5-5 3-3 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 8-1 5-5 3-3 1-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-4 7-6 6-7 4-7<br />

as HF 4-2 4-3 2-4 0-3<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 1-0 1-1<br />

as AF 1-1 1-2 2-0 0-0<br />

as AD 2-1 1-1 1-2 3-2<br />

vs Conf 5-3 4-4 6-2 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-2 0-5 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 1-1 2-4 3-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 1-0 0-2 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 6-4 3-3 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 6-4 3-3 1-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 5-3 (T #2-#3 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #52 - #36<br />

SOS: #27 Adjusted Off – Def: #18 - #26<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #4<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #13 (85.6)<br />

Tennessee<br />

The Volunteers in ’16<br />

HC here: Butch Jones – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.8*, DEF-8.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #14<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.1% 40.9% 28.3% 21.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Volunteers are 1-10 ATS vs Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

non-conf foes off a DD win <strong>2016</strong> 9.5 (+105)<br />

2015 7.5 (-140) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 5.5 (-135) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-210) 5-7 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 15.2 (35.2-20.0) 60.3 (422-362) 76-70 5.6-5.2 7<br />

’15 conf only 8.4 (31.2-22.9) 36.7 (420-383) 74-69 5.7-5.6 -1<br />

2014 All 4.7 (28.9-24.2) 5.9 (371-365) 75-69 4.9-5.3 2<br />

’14 conf only -1.6 (25.5-27.1) -23.0 (363-386) 74-71 4.9-5.4 -3<br />

2013 All -5.2 (23.8-29.0) -65.1 (353-418) 67-69 5.3-6.1 1<br />

’13 conf only -12.6 (18.0-30.6) -90.6 (327-417) 66-69 5.0-6.1 -5<br />

2012 All 0.5 (36.2-35.7) 4.6 (476-471) 74-77 6.4-6.1 -5<br />

’12 conf only -9.2 (30.8-40.0) -80.3 (410-490) 72-73 5.7-6.7 -8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 100% 72% 75% 86% 92% 64%<br />

The rebuilding under Butch Jones has taken longer than most<br />

Tennessee fans had hoped for but after last year’s dominating bowl<br />

win, it was the first time the Volunteers have reached the 9-win<br />

plateau since 2007! This year’s team looks even stronger.<br />

Last season the offense returned 9 starters and improved their scoring<br />

by just under a TD averaging 35.2 ppg. This year they return 9 starters<br />

again starting with QB Joshua Dobbs. They have a solid 1-2 punch at<br />

RB in Jalen Hurd and Alvin Kamara (<strong>com</strong>bined for 1,986 rush yards last<br />

year). One of the departures was UT’s “leading” receiver but he had<br />

only 4 yards more than the #2 receiver and the OL has 71 career starts.<br />

The defense is also in solid shape as they improved for a 3rd straight<br />

season in both yards per game and points per game allowed in 2015.<br />

This year 3 starters depart but they return 18 of their top 21 tacklers<br />

making them a deep and experienced unit.<br />

The schedule sees them taking on a Virginia Tech at Bristol Motor<br />

Speedway in Week 2. Then the Vols look to break their 11-game losing<br />

streak vs Florida in Week 4. They figure to be favorites in 10-11 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Appalachian St<br />

9/10 Sat (N) Virginia Tech<br />

9/17 Sat Ohio<br />

9/24 Sat Florida<br />

10/1 Sat at Georgia<br />

10/8 Sat at Texas A&M<br />

10/15 Sat Alabama<br />

10/29 Sat at South Carolina<br />

11/5 Sat Tenn Tech<br />

11/12 Sat Kentucky<br />

11/19 Sat Missouri<br />

11/26 Sat at Vanderbilt<br />

open<br />

Tennessee is 5-1 to the OVER as<br />

a HD the last 4 years<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 5-7 7-6 9-4<br />

Home 4-3 4-3 4-3 5-2<br />

Away 0-4 1-4 2-3 2-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-8 5-7 7-6 8-5<br />

HF 1-5 1-3 3-3 2-3<br />

HD 0-1 2-1 1-0 1-0<br />

AF 0-0 1-0 0-1 2-0<br />

AD 2-2 1-3 2-2 1-0<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-4 4-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 1-3 1-3 3-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-5 3-4 4-2 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-4 3-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 2-2 2-4 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 2-2 2-4 4-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 9-2 6-5 6-6 7-6<br />

as HF 4-1 1-2 2-3 2-3<br />

as HD 1-0 2-1 1-0 1-0<br />

as AF 0-0 0-1 0-1 1-1<br />

as AD 3-1 3-1 2-2 0-1<br />

vs Conf 6-2 4-4 5-3 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 3-0 2-1 1-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 5-2 2-4 3-2 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 2-2 3-0 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-0 4-0 3-3 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-0 4-0 3-3 3-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 4-4 (T #5-#6 SEC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #50 - #52<br />

SOS: #18 Adjusted Off – Def: #62 - #17<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #11<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #47 (74.9)<br />

Texas A&M<br />

The Aggies in ’16<br />

HC here: Kevin Sumlin – 5 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.2, DEF-6.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #19<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.1% 23.8% 33.9% 32.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Aggies are 0-7 ATS home Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being a HF (s’/ 11/9/13) <strong>2016</strong> 6 (-120)<br />

2015 7.5 (-155) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 7.5 (+140) 7-5 und<br />

2013 9.5 (-180) 8-4 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 10-2 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 5.8 (27.8-22.0) 44.7 (425-380) 76-70 5.6-5.4 -6<br />

’15 conf only -1.8 (20.1-21.9) -7.8 (379-387) 71-70 5.3-5.5 0<br />

2014 All 7.2 (35.2-28.1) 4.6 (455-451) 72-76 6.3-5.9 -7<br />

’14 conf only -8.8 (27.9-36.6) -87.3 (422-510) 72-74 5.8-6.9 -3<br />

2013 All 12.0 (44.2-32.2) 62.6 (538-476) 73-75 7.3-6.4 1<br />

’13 conf only 1.9 (38.4-36.5) 15.0 (514-499) 74-75 7.0-6.7 -8<br />

2012 All 22.7 (44.5-21.8) 168.3 (559-390) 79-75 7.1-5.2 -5<br />

’12 conf only 18.1 (39.1-21.0) 153.3 (546-393) 82-71 6.6-5.5 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

12% 19% 93% 32% 83% 77% 77%<br />

Much like Gus Malzahn at Auburn, Kevin Sumlin after an ultrasuccessful<br />

first season finds himself on the hot seat entering <strong>2016</strong> as<br />

multiple transfers at QB have raised some red flags.<br />

Speaking of transfers, A&M hopes that Trevor Knight (15 starts at<br />

Oklahoma) is their answer while they will look to another Sooner<br />

transfer, Keith Ford, to be their main RB. The receiving corps is another<br />

story as it’s the strength of the offense with the top 7 all returning.<br />

The OL returns only one-full time starter and has just 21 career starts.<br />

The defense made major strides last year under DC John Chavis<br />

(allowed 6.1 ppg and 71 ypg less) and this year returns 7 starters. They<br />

have possibly the best pair of DE’s in the country in Myles Garrett and<br />

Daeshon Hall who <strong>com</strong>bined for 34 TFL’s last year. They do lose a pair<br />

of DT’s but replace them with two sophomores that weigh a <strong>com</strong>bined<br />

650 pounds! The open secondary spot will be filled by a UCLA transfer<br />

who sat out here LY.<br />

The schedule sees the Aggies with a treacherous home slate as 4 of<br />

their opponents could be ranked in the Top 20 which means most of<br />

their easier conference games <strong>com</strong>e on the road.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat UCLA<br />

9/10 Sat PV A&M<br />

9/17 Sat at Auburn<br />

9/24 Sat (N) Arkansas<br />

10/1 Sat at South Carolina<br />

10/8 Sat Tennessee<br />

10/22 Sat at Alabama<br />

10/29 Sat New Mexico St<br />

11/5 Sat at Miss St<br />

11/12 Sat Ole Miss<br />

11/19 Sat UTSA<br />

11/24 Thu LSU<br />

open<br />

A&M is 12-2 ATS on the road after<br />

a win on the road (s’/10/19/91)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 9-4 8-5 8-5<br />

Home 4-2 6-2 3-3 5-2<br />

Away 5-0 2-2 3-2 1-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 4-9 5-8 4-8<br />

HF 3-1 3-4 1-4 2-4<br />

HD 0-2 1-0 0-1 0-1<br />

AF 3-1 0-2 1-0 1-0<br />

AD 1-0 0-2 2-2 0-2<br />

vs Conf 5-3 2-6 2-6 2-5<br />

Non Conf 3-2 2-3 3-2 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 2-2 1-4 0-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 0-3 0-4<br />

Off SU Win 6-4 2-6 3-4 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-4 2-6 3-4 3-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-7 9-4 6-7 4-9<br />

as HF 2-0 5-2 1-4 3-3<br />

as HD 0-2 1-0 0-1 1-0<br />

as AF 1-3 2-0 1-0 0-1<br />

as AD 0-1 0-2 3-1 0-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 6-2 4-4 2-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 3-2 2-3 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 2-2 1-4 1-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 0-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 6-2 4-3 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 6-2 4-3 3-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 4-8, 2-6 (T #4-#5 SEC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #118 - #28<br />

SOS: #28 Adjusted Off – Def: #106 - #10<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #46<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #71 (67.4)<br />

Vanderbilt<br />

The Commodores in ’16<br />

HC here: Derek Mason – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.8, DEF-7.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #14 - #54<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.3% 41.3% 29.2% 24.2%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Commodores are 15-2 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a road loss (s’/ 10/27/01) <strong>2016</strong> 5 (-110)<br />

2015 3 (-135) 4-8 OV<br />

2014 6.5 (+255) 3-9 und<br />

2013 7.5 (+100) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -5.8 (15.2-21.0) -24.0 (327-351) 73-68 4.5-5.2 -8<br />

’15 conf only -9.8 (13.2-23.0) -91.5 (299-391) 73-69 4.1-5.7 0<br />

2014 All -16.1 (17.2-33.2) -113.8 (288-402) 62-70 4.7-5.7 -16<br />

’14 conf only -22.6 (12.8-35.4) -168.8 (257-425) 59-72 4.3-5.9 -10<br />

2013 All 5.5 (30.1-24.6) 11.8 (367-355) 68-70 5.4-5.1 7<br />

’13 conf only -3.5 (26.6-30.1) -75.5 (326-402) 67-75 4.9-5.4 8<br />

2012 All 11.3 (30.0-18.7) 45.8 (380-334) 67-70 5.7-4.8 0<br />

’12 conf only 1.1 (22.1-21.0) 5.3 (364-359) 70-69 5.2-5.2 -5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

26% 90% 84% 48% 81% 62% 79%<br />

After a disastrous first season under Derek Mason, the Commodores<br />

made great strides last season despite only improving their record by<br />

from 3-9 to 4-8 (went from -16.1 ppg to -5.8 ppg). This year’s team<br />

looks even stronger with 14 returning starters.<br />

The offense last year struggled mightily averaging only 15.2 ppg.<br />

Returning QB Kyle Shurmur started 4 of the season’s final 5 games and<br />

while his TD-to-INT ratio was better than the other starter (5-3 vs 6-<br />

12), he <strong>com</strong>pleted only 42.7% (vs 54.7%). The returning skill players<br />

are all back led by RB Ralph Webb (1,152 yards last year). The OL does<br />

lose 2 starters who <strong>com</strong>bined for 81 career starts.<br />

The defense last year finished with the #10 adjusted D despite having<br />

an inept offense. This unit looks even better on paper as they return 5<br />

of the top 6 DL, their top LB and 8 of the top 11 in the secondary. Credit<br />

must be given to head coach Mason who last year took over the<br />

defensive play-calling and will handle those duties this year as well.<br />

The schedule will see them favored in their first two games but they<br />

could be a dog in 7 or 8 of their next 10 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu South Carolina<br />

9/10 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

9/17 Sat at Georgia Tech<br />

9/24 Sat at WKU<br />

10/1 Sat Florida<br />

10/8 Sat at Kentucky<br />

10/15 Sat at Georgia<br />

10/22 Sat Tennessee St<br />

11/5 Sat at Auburn<br />

11/12 Sat at Missouri<br />

11/19 Sat Ole Miss<br />

11/26 Sat Tennessee<br />

open<br />

Vandy is 10-0 ATS as a FAV after<br />

a win as a fav (since/ 9/29/07)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-4 9-4 3-9 4-8<br />

Home 4-2 5-2 3-4 3-3<br />

Away 4-2 3-2 0-4 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-4 7-6 6-6 7-5<br />

HF 3-1 2-2 1-3 1-1<br />

HD 1-1 1-2 2-1 3-1<br />

AF 2-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 2-1 3-1 3-1 3-3<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-3 5-3 5-3<br />

Non Conf 4-1 2-3 1-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 2-2 4-4 5-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-1 2-1 4-4 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 6-2 5-3 2-1 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-2 5-3 2-1 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 8-5 4-8 1-10<br />

as HF 1-2 2-2 2-2 0-1<br />

as HD 1-1 2-1 1-2 0-4<br />

as AF 1-2 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 1-1 3-1 1-3 1-5<br />

vs Conf 2-5 5-3 2-6 1-7<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-2 2-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-3 1-3 3-5 1-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 1-2 3-5 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 5-2 6-2 1-2 0-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-2 6-2 1-2 0-4


2015 FINAL Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

EAST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Temple 10 4 71.4% 29.8 20.1 7 2 77.8%<br />

USF 8 5 61.5% 33.6 22.9 6 2 75.0%<br />

Cincinnati 7 6 53.8% 33.8 31.2 4 4 50.0%<br />

Connecticut 6 7 46.2% 17.2 19.5 4 4 50.0%<br />

East Carolina 5 7 41.7% 27.4 26.0 3 5 37.5%<br />

UCF 0 12 0.0% 13.9 37.7 0 8 0.0%<br />

WEST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Houston 13 1 92.9% 40.4 20.7 8 1 88.9%<br />

Navy 11 2 84.6% 36.8 21.8 7 1 87.5%<br />

Memphis 9 4 69.2% 40.2 27.3 5 3 62.5%<br />

Tulsa 6 7 46.2% 37.2 39.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Tulane 3 9 25.0% 19.7 36.3 1 7 12.5%<br />

SMU 2 10 16.7% 27.8 45.7 1 7 12.5%<br />

BRAD POWER<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

34 Houston 80.85<br />

42 USF 78.44<br />

57 Cincinnati 73.40<br />

58 Temple 73.33<br />

68 Memphis 71.22<br />

76 Navy 69.54<br />

81 Connecticut 68.10<br />

89 Tulsa 65.57<br />

94 East Carolina 63.87<br />

97 SMU 61.02<br />

102 UCF 59.61<br />

119 Tulane 53.78


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 4-4 (T #3-#4 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #6 - #79<br />

SOS: #73 Adjusted Off – Def: #43 - #91<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #68<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #72 (67.2)<br />

Cincinnati<br />

The Bearcats in ’16<br />

HC here: Tommy Tuberville – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4.7*, DEF-8.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #77<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.2% 9.3% 36.7% 40.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bearcats are 2-10 ATS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

vs non-conf foes (s’/ 9/21/13) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-130)<br />

2015 7.5 (-130) 7-5 und<br />

2014 7.5 (-150) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 9.5 (+120) 9-3 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 2.7 (33.8-31.2) 129.2 (538-409) 81-71 6.6-5.8 -19<br />

’15 conf only 3.4 (35.8-32.4) 167.3 (593-426) 84-73 7.1-5.9 -12<br />

2014 All 6.8 (34.0-27.2) 21.1 (460-439) 73-73 6.3-6.0 2<br />

’14 conf only 14.5 (34.2-19.8) 72.4 (462-390) 74-72 6.2-5.4 3<br />

2013 All 11.1 (32.1-21.0) 156.5 (472-316) 76-66 6.2-4.8 -7<br />

’13 conf only 11.0 (32.6-21.6) 140.6 (484-343) 76-68 6.3-5.0 -6<br />

2012 All 13.8 (32.3-18.5) 52.2 (440-388) 66-74 6.6-5.3 9<br />

’12 conf only 11.9 (28.3-16.4) 6.3 (404-398) 65-76 6.2-5.2 4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 67% 16% 57% 78% 79% 80%<br />

Last year Cincinnati was much better than their 7-6 record indicated<br />

as they were +167 ypg in conference play (nearly 100 ypg more than<br />

No. 2 Memphis). However, they were -12 TO’s during AAC play. This<br />

year’s team, like last year, looks to be a major wild card.<br />

The offense returns both QB’s (Gunner Kiel and Hayden Moore) but<br />

both were inconsistent (22 <strong>com</strong>bined interceptions). They had 3<br />

players rush for more than 700 yards and 2 of them return. However,<br />

they lose their top 6 receivers who incredibly <strong>com</strong>bined for 3,912<br />

receiving yards last year. While the OL returns 3 starters, they do lose<br />

their best OL in Parker Ehinger who was a 4-year starter.<br />

The defense sees the return of 7 of their top 8 DL (top guy gone) and<br />

they also return their top 2 tacklers on their LB corps. The secondary<br />

is just as experienced with 7 of the top 8 back.<br />

The schedule sees the Bearcats with 7 home games (which includes<br />

AAC preseason favorites Houston and USF) and they only face one<br />

team on the road that had a winning record last year (Temple). We<br />

expect the Bearcats’ to top last year’s 7-win total.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu UT Martin<br />

9/10 Sat at Purdue<br />

9/15 Thu Houston<br />

9/24 Sat Miami (OH)<br />

10/1 Sat USF<br />

10/8 Sat at Connecticut<br />

10/22 Sat East Carolina<br />

10/29 Sat at Temple<br />

11/5 Sat BYU<br />

11/12 Sat at UCF<br />

11/18 Fri Memphis<br />

11/25 Fri at Tulsa<br />

open<br />

Cincy is 12-2 ATS away after a<br />

road game (s’/ Sep 23, 06)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-3 9-4 9-4 7-6<br />

Home 6-1 5-1 5-1 5-1<br />

Away 2-2 3-2 4-2 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 9-4 6-7 7-5 6-7<br />

HF 4-3 3-2 2-2 2-3<br />

HD 0-0 0-1 1-0 1-0<br />

AF 2-1 2-3 4-0 1-2<br />

AD 1-0 0-0 0-2 2-1<br />

vs Conf 6-1 4-4 6-1 5-3<br />

Non Conf 3-3 2-3 1-4 1-4<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 1-2 1-2 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 1-2 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 5-4 4-5 5-3 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-4 4-5 5-3 3-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-5 7-6 5-8 5-7<br />

as HF 2-3 3-2 2-3 2-2<br />

as HD 0-0 1-0 1-0 0-1<br />

as AF 1-2 3-2 0-4 2-1<br />

as AD 1-0 0-0 2-0 1-2<br />

vs Conf 3-4 5-3 2-6 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-3 3-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-1 2-1 1-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 1-2 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 4-3 5-4 3-6 3-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-3 5-4 3-6 3-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 4-4 (T #3-#4 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #125 - #33<br />

SOS: #74 Adjusted Off – Def: #110 - #47<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #100<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #87 (63.3)<br />

Connecticut<br />

The Huskies in ’16<br />

HC here: Bob Diaco – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.5*, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #100<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.2% 45.0% 25.9% 25.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Huskies are 0-9 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a home loss (s’/ 9/28/13)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 5 (+100)<br />

2015 3 (-160) 6-6 OV<br />

2014 3.5 (-270) 2-10 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-140) 3-9 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.3 (17.2-19.5) -44.8 (310-355) 63-68 4.9-5.2 9<br />

’15 conf only -1.8 (19.0-20.8) -26.7 (330-356) 65-68 5.0-5.3 7<br />

2014 All -14.3 (15.5-29.8) -102.3 (276-379) 61-73 4.5-5.2 -13<br />

’14 conf only -14.9 (14.4-29.2) -122.3 (262-384) 57-77 4.6-5.0 -8<br />

2013 All -9.7 (20.6-30.2) -66.0 (319-385) 69-70 4.6-5.5 -1<br />

’13 conf only -7.2 (21.9-29.1) -46.2 (342-388) 71-70 4.8-5.6 -1<br />

2012 All -2.1 (17.8-19.8) 8.0 (318-310) 67-68 4.7-4.6 -14<br />

’12 conf only -9.0 (13.9-22.9) -44.3 (314-358) 68-70 4.6-5.1 -10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

88% 96% 92% 80% 63% 65% 61%<br />

The Huskies made solid improvement in year 2 under head coach Bob<br />

Diaco getting to their first bowl game in 5 years. They were led by one<br />

of the most improved defenses in the country allowing just 19 ppg (10<br />

ppg less than 2014) but the offense continued to struggle.<br />

This year’s team looks even better especially on offense with 10<br />

returning starters. The mobile Bryant Shirreffs is back at QB (2 nd<br />

leading rusher) along with the top 2 RB’s, the top 5 receivers and 4<br />

starters on the OL (76 career starts).<br />

The defense isn’t as experienced as the offense but they still bring<br />

back 4 of their top 6 DL and 3 of their top 4 DB’s. They do lose two<br />

starters at LB but bring in a transfer from Florida State in EJ<br />

Levenberry. The special teams’ unit sees the return of both specialists<br />

and both return men.<br />

While this is Diaco’s best team yet and they have 7 home games, they<br />

do have to play 3 teams from the ACC (none had a winning record last<br />

year) and pull Houston from the AAC West. This still could be another<br />

bowl season in Storrs.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Maine<br />

9/10 Sat at Navy<br />

9/17 Sat Virginia<br />

9/24 Sat Syracuse<br />

9/29 Thu at Houston<br />

10/8 Sat Cincinnati<br />

10/15 Sat at USF<br />

10/22 Sat UCF<br />

10/29 Sat at East Carolina<br />

11/4 Fri Temple<br />

11/19 Sat at Boston <strong>College</strong><br />

11/26 Sat Tulane<br />

open<br />

UConn is 15-3 ATS as a HD off a<br />

loss on the road (s’/10/27/01)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 3-9 2-10 6-7<br />

Home 3-3 2-5 2-5 4-2<br />

Away 2-4 1-4 0-4 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-6 5-7 2-10 5-8<br />

HF 1-2 0-2 0-2 0-2<br />

HD 2-1 4-1 1-4 3-1<br />

AF 1-1 0-1 0-0 1-1<br />

AD 2-2 1-3 1-3 1-3<br />

vs Conf 3-4 4-3 2-6 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-2 1-4 0-4 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 3-6 2-7 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 3-4 1-6 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-3 2-0 0-2 2-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-3 2-0 0-2 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-8 7-5 5-6 2-11<br />

as HF 0-3 1-1 1-1 1-1<br />

as HD 1-2 2-3 2-2 0-4<br />

as AF 2-0 1-0 0-0 1-1<br />

as AD 1-3 3-1 1-3 0-4<br />

vs Conf 2-5 3-4 3-4 2-6<br />

vs Non Conf 2-3 4-1 2-2 0-5<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 5-4 3-5 1-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-2 3-4 3-4 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-3 1-1 2-0 1-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-3 1-1 2-0 1-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 3-5 (#5 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #54 - #67<br />

SOS: #70 Adjusted Off – Def: #66 - #78<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #94<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #84 (64.5)<br />

East Carolina<br />

The Pirates in ’16<br />

HC here: Scottie Montgomery – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.7, DEF-6.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #79<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

1.5% 20.5% 36.7% 41.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Pirates are 1-10 ATS as an Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

AF off a road win (s’/11/8/97) <strong>2016</strong> 5.5 (+105)<br />

2015 7 (-120) 5-7 und<br />

2014 6.5 (-215) 8-4 OV<br />

2013 7.5 (-120) 9-3 OV<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 1.4 (27.4-26.0) 13.7 (415-401) 73-74 5.7-5.4 -3<br />

’15 conf only 2.0 (25.5-23.5) 26.5 (411-384) 74-75 5.6-5.2 -2<br />

2014 All 10.0 (35.8-25.8) 165.7 (533-367) 82-72 6.5-5.1 -4<br />

’14 conf only 8.4 (34.1-25.8) 134.3 (508-374) 82-71 6.2-5.3 -3<br />

2013 All 15.4 (40.2-24.8) 99.4 (468-369) 79-75 5.9-4.9 8<br />

’13 conf only 17.0 (40.8-23.8) 137.9 (473-335) 80-73 5.9-4.6 6<br />

2012 All -0.2 (31.5-31.6) -22.2 (409-431) 73-72 5.6-5.9 0<br />

’12 conf only 9.0 (37.0-28.0) 59.8 (441-381) 75-72 5.9-5.3 4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

21% 48% 75% 47% 62% 55% 64%<br />

Coming into last year, East Carolina had to replace their all-time<br />

passing leader (Shane Carden) and their all-time career leader at<br />

receiver (Justin Hardy). They also lost their hot-shot OC (Lincoln Riley)<br />

and fell to 5-7 as they were 1-4 in games decided by 7 points or less.<br />

Shockingly, they would fire Ruffin McNeill (42-34 in 6 seasons) and<br />

hired former Duke OC Scottie Montgomery.<br />

This year’s team is a mixed back experience wise. Last year’s starting<br />

QB Blake Kemp is gone while journeyman Philip Nelson looks to be the<br />

favorite. They also lose their top RB, but do return 3 of their top 4<br />

receivers. The OL is inexperienced as they lose 102 career starts (just<br />

39 return).<br />

The defense sees the return of 6 of the top 8 DL, but they do lose 2 of<br />

their top 3 LB’s including Zeek Bigger who led the team in tackles each<br />

of the last two years. They also lose 3 of their top 6 DB’s.<br />

Like usual, ECU plays 3 Power 5 schools in non-conference action and<br />

all of their conference road games are against bowl teams from last<br />

year. This looks like another losing season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat W Carolina<br />

9/10 Sat NC St<br />

9/17 Sat at South Carolina<br />

9/24 Sat at Virginia Tech<br />

10/1 Sat UCF<br />

10/8 Sat at USF<br />

10/13 Thu Navy<br />

10/22 Sat at Cincinnati<br />

10/29 Sat Connecticut<br />

11/5 Sat at Tulsa<br />

11/12 Sat SMU<br />

11/26 Sat at Temple<br />

open<br />

East Carolina is 7-0 ATS at home<br />

after a win as a dog (s’/9/6/08)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 10-3 8-5 5-7<br />

Home 5-1 5-1 5-1 3-3<br />

Away 3-3 4-2 3-3 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-7 7-6 5-7 5-6<br />

HF 3-2 3-2 3-3 0-3<br />

HD 1-0 1-0 0-0 1-1<br />

AF 1-1 1-3 0-4 2-1<br />

AD 1-3 1-1 2-0 2-1<br />

vs Conf 5-3 3-5 1-7 2-5<br />

Non Conf 1-4 4-1 4-0 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-0 3-0 2-1 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-0 1-0 1-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-7 4-5 2-6 3-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-7 4-5 2-6 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 8-5 6-6 5-6<br />

as HF 2-2 4-1 4-2 0-3<br />

as HD 1-0 0-1 0-0 1-1<br />

as AF 1-1 2-2 2-2 1-2<br />

as AD 2-2 2-0 0-2 3-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 5-3 4-4 2-6<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 3-2 2-2 3-0<br />

Off SU Loss 1-3 2-1 1-2 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 0-1 1-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Win 6-2 5-4 4-4 3-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-2 5-4 4-4 3-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 13-1, 7-1 (T #1-#2 AAC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #20 - #54<br />

SOS: #92 Adjusted Off – Def: #34 - #31<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #92<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #20 (83.0)<br />

Houston<br />

The Cougars in ’16<br />

HC here: Tom Herman – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.7*, DEF-5.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #40<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.4% 12.3% 39.6% 38.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Cougars are 2-13 ATS as a Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

HD after a road loss (s’/11/4/03) <strong>2016</strong> 9.5 (-135)<br />

2015 8.5 (+105) 11-1 OV<br />

2014 8.5 (-185) 7-5 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+120) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 9 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 19.7 (40.4-20.7) 100.6 (484-384) 79-70 6.2-5.5 21<br />

’15 conf only 16.9 (38.8-21.9) 61.3 (465-404) 75-71 6.2-5.7 8<br />

2014 All 9.2 (29.8-20.6) 70.7 (414-343) 73-70 5.7-4.9 8<br />

’14 conf only 8.2 (28.2-20.0) 84.8 (419-334) 74-66 5.7-5.1 5<br />

2013 All 11.4 (33.2-21.8) 3.8 (420-416) 73-80 5.7-5.2 25<br />

’13 conf only 10.1 (26.1-16.0) -7.0 (372-379) 71-78 5.2-4.9 15<br />

2012 All -3.6 (32.4-36.0) -3.4 (480-483) 82-86 5.9-5.6 -4<br />

’12 conf only -1.4 (34.6-36.0) 2.6 (466-463) 81-86 5.8-5.4 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

95% 47% 54% 53% 74% 62% 29%<br />

Coming off a 13-1 season highlighted by a Peach Bowl win over Florida<br />

State, expectations are sky-high for the Cougars in head coach Tom<br />

Herman’s 2 nd -year. However, Houston was fortunate last year (only<br />

+61 ypg in conference play, No. 4 in AAC).<br />

Naturally the offense is led by QB Greg Ward, Jr who had 3,936 total<br />

yards and 38 total touchdowns a year ago. They do lose their top 3<br />

RB’s and their top WR, but do have their next 4 receivers back and<br />

wel<strong>com</strong>e in some key transfers. The OL was banged up last year and<br />

they do lose 88 career starts (just 26 return).<br />

The defensive front 7 is very experienced as they wel<strong>com</strong>e back 5 of<br />

their top 6 DL and 6 of their top 8 LB’s. However, they do lose their top<br />

guy in LB Elandon Roberts. The secondary could be the biggest<br />

question mark on the team as they lose 4 of their top 5 including a<br />

first-round draft choice in William Jackson III.<br />

The schedule is more difficult and it starts with the opener vs<br />

Oklahoma. They also have conference road trips to Cincinnati, Navy<br />

and Memphis and it will be difficult matching last year’s record.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat (N) Oklahoma<br />

9/10 Sat Lamar<br />

9/15 Thu at Cincinnati<br />

9/24 Sat at Texas St<br />

9/29 Thu Connecticut<br />

10/8 Sat at Navy<br />

10/15 Sat Tulsa<br />

10/22 Sat at SMU<br />

10/29 Sat UCF<br />

11/12 Sat Tulane<br />

11/17 Thu Louisville<br />

11/25 Fri at Memphis<br />

open<br />

Houston is 14-1 ATS on the road<br />

(since/ Nov 17, 2012)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 8-5 8-5 13-1<br />

Home 4-3 3-1 4-3 8-0<br />

Away 0-4 3-2 3-2 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 9-3 7-5 9-5<br />

HF 3-2 1-1 2-5 3-4<br />

HD 0-2 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-2 1-0 2-0 3-1<br />

AD 1-1 3-0 2-0 1-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 4-2 4-3 5-4<br />

Non Conf 1-3 5-1 3-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 3-1 3-2 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 5-2 4-2 8-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 5-2 4-2 8-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 6-7 5-8 6-7<br />

as HF 2-3 1-2 2-5 2-4<br />

as HD 1-1 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 2-0 0-1 0-2 1-3<br />

as AD 1-1 1-2 2-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 4-4 2-5 4-4 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 4-2 1-4 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-4 1-3 3-2 1-0<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-2 0-0 0-1 0-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 4-4 2-5 5-7<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 4-4 2-5 5-7


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 5-3 (#3 AAC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #19 - #78<br />

SOS: #61 Adjusted Off – Def: #25 - #63<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #78<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #40 (76.5)<br />

Memphis<br />

The Tigers in ’16<br />

HC here: Mike Norvell – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.9, DEF-7.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #64<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

7.9% 25.7% 32.9% 33.6%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Tigers are 2-14 ATS as a HF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a FAV (s’/ 10/5/96) <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 8.5 (-105) 9-3 OV<br />

2014 4.5 (-310) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (-165) 3-9 und<br />

2012 2 (n/a) 4-8 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 12.8 (40.2-27.3) 80.2 (487-407) 79-74 6.2-5.5 8<br />

’15 conf only 10.5 (39.1-28.6) 72.6 (490-418) 77-75 6.4-5.5 5<br />

2014 All 16.8 (36.2-19.5) 77.5 (427-350) 78-74 5.5-4.7 11<br />

’14 conf only 19.6 (34.9-15.2) 99.0 (434-335) 76-73 5.8-4.6 7<br />

2013 All -5.1 (19.5-24.6) -59.2 (312-371) 67-71 4.7-5.2 -8<br />

’13 conf only -10.5 (19.1-29.6) -106.1 (288-394) 67-73 4.3-5.4 -8<br />

2012 All -5.8 (24.4-30.2) -65.3 (318-384) 64-72 5.0-5.4 -1<br />

’12 conf only -2.5 (25.5-28.0) -4.5 (327-332) 66-66 5.0-5.1 -3<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

1% 62% 63% 66% 84% 62% 64%<br />

The last two seasons have been some of the best in the history of the<br />

Memphis program, but there are plenty of new faces in <strong>2016</strong>. While<br />

new head coach Mike Norvell doesn’t have any prior head coaching<br />

experience, he has been the OC at Arizona St the last four seasons and<br />

was a hot <strong>com</strong>modity among young assistant coaches.<br />

The offense, of course, loses first-round draft choice Paxton Lynch at<br />

QB. In<strong>com</strong>ing JUCO transfer Riley Ferguson looks like the heir apparent<br />

and 3 of the top 4 RB’s do return along with 3 of the top 4 receivers.<br />

While the OL returns 4 players who started at least 9 games last year,<br />

they lose 5 players with a <strong>com</strong>bined 93 career starts.<br />

The defense is experienced as they return 10 of their top 11 DL. While<br />

the LB corps loses their two leading tacklers, they have 8 of their top<br />

10 returning. 7 of the top 10 DB’s return. The special teams should<br />

remain one of the best in the country with both specialists back.<br />

While the non-conference schedule is manageable, the Tigers pull the<br />

top 3 teams from the AAC East and they won’t match last year’s 9 wins.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat SE Missouri St<br />

9/17 Sat Kansas<br />

9/24 Sat Bowling Green<br />

10/1 Sat at Ole Miss<br />

10/6 Thu Temple<br />

10/14 Fri at Tulane<br />

10/22 Sat at Navy<br />

10/29 Sat Tulsa<br />

11/5 Sat at SMU<br />

11/12 Sat USF<br />

11/18 Fri at Cincinnati<br />

11/25 Fri Houston<br />

open<br />

Memphis is 10-1 ATS after a loss<br />

as an AF (since/ Sep 22, 1984)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 3-9 10-3 9-4<br />

Home 3-3 2-5 5-1 5-1<br />

Away 1-5 1-4 4-2 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-5 6-5 8-5 6-6<br />

HF 1-1 1-2 3-3 2-3<br />

HD 2-1 2-2 0-0 1-0<br />

AF 0-0 1-1 2-1 2-2<br />

AD 3-3 2-0 2-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 6-2 2-4 4-4 3-5<br />

Non Conf 1-3 4-1 4-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 5-3 3-4 3-0 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-2 2-2 1-0 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 2-1 3-0 4-5 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-1 3-0 4-5 3-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-4 4-8 7-5 4-7<br />

as HF 1-0 2-1 4-1 1-2<br />

as HD 2-1 1-3 0-0 0-1<br />

as AF 0-0 1-1 1-2 3-2<br />

as AD 3-3 0-3 1-2 0-1<br />

vs Conf 5-3 4-3 4-3 2-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 0-5 3-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 6-2 4-4 1-2 0-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-2 2-2 0-1 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 0-3 5-3 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 0-3 5-3 4-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 11-2, 7-1 (T #1-#2 AAC-Wast)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #48 - #40<br />

SOS: #69 Adjusted Off – Def: #13 - #55<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #111<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #39 (76.5)<br />

Navy<br />

The Midshipmen in ’16<br />

HC here: Ken Niumatalolo – 10 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-1.6, DEF-6.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #86<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

0.3% 12.2% 25.5% 61.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Midshipman are 4-19 ATS Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

at home after a win as a dog <strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-130) 10-2 OV<br />

(s’/11/1/80)<br />

2014 8.5 (-165) 7-5 und<br />

2013 6.5 (-120) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 8-4 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 14.9 (36.8-21.8) 60.2 (425-365) 67-65 6.4-5.7 19<br />

’15 conf only 16.4 (38.5-22.1) 57.1 (433-375) 70-65 6.2-5.8 11<br />

2014 All 4.5 (31.8-27.3) 15.6 (419-404) 66-69 6.4-5.8 -4<br />

’14 conf only - - - - -<br />

2013 All 9.2 (33.5-24.4) 16.5 (411-395) 71-70 5.8-5.7 12<br />

’13 conf only - - - - -<br />

2012 All -0.7 (25.0-25.7) -25.6 (383-409) 67-68 5.7-6.1 0<br />

’12 conf only - - - - -<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

6% 24% 66% 11% 37% 87% 47%<br />

Last year was a dream season for Navy in their first year of conference<br />

play. They finished 11-2 team (only losses to ND and Houston) and<br />

finished in the AP Top 20 for the first time in more than 50 years.<br />

However, head coach Ken Niumatalolo has his hands full this year as<br />

only 7 full-time starters return.<br />

The offense loses arguably their best QB since Roger Staubach as 4-<br />

year starter Keenan Reynolds departs. Tago Smith looks like the heir<br />

apparent but he doesn’t have much experience around him as the top<br />

2 FB’s depart along with 2 of the top 3 slot-backs. The leading receiver<br />

is back but the OL has a massive rebuild losing all 5 starters who<br />

<strong>com</strong>bined for 108 career starts (just 8 back).<br />

The defense is a little more experienced, but they do lose their top 2<br />

DL. The LB corps could be a strength on the team as they return 9 of<br />

their top 10 but the secondary loses their top 3 tacklers.<br />

The schedule could see them favored in as many as 8 games but with<br />

only 5 true home games and their vast inexperience, we don’t see<br />

Navy <strong>com</strong>ing close to last year’s record-setting season.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Fordham<br />

9/10 Sat Connecticut<br />

9/17 Sat at Tulane<br />

10/1 Sat at Air Force<br />

10/8 Sat Houston<br />

10/13 Thu at East Carolina<br />

10/22 Sat Memphis<br />

10/28 Fri at USF<br />

11/5 Sat (N) Notre Dame<br />

11/12 Sat Tulsa<br />

11/26 Sat at SMU<br />

12/10 Sat (N) Army<br />

open<br />

Navy is 21-4 ATS away after a<br />

game as a HD (s’/ 11/10/90)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-5 9-4 8-5 11-2<br />

Home 4-1 5-0 3-2 7-0<br />

Away 3-2 2-4 4-1 3-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-9 10-3 6-7 9-4<br />

HF 1-3 3-1 2-3 6-1<br />

HD 0-1 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-1 0-1 2-2 2-0<br />

AD 2-1 4-1 1-0 1-1<br />

vs Conf 0-2 2-0 1-1 6-2<br />

Non Conf 4-7 8-3 5-6 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 3-1 2-3 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 2-0 2-0 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-6 6-2 4-3 8-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-6 6-2 4-3 8-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 4-8 5-8 4-7 6-6<br />

as HF 0-3 1-3 2-1 4-3<br />

as HD 0-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-0 0-1 1-3 0-2<br />

as AD 1-2 4-1 0-1 1-0<br />

vs Conf 1-1 1-1 1-1 3-4<br />

vs Non Conf 3-7 4-7 3-6 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-3 2-2 1-3 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-3 1-1 1-1 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 2-6 3-3 5-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 2-6 3-3 5-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 2-10, 1-7 (T #5-#6 AAC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #76 - #120<br />

SOS: #71 Adjusted Off – Def: #85 - #122<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #81<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #109 (52.2)<br />

SMU<br />

The Mustangs in ’16<br />

HC here: Chad Morris – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.9*, DEF-6.3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #74<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

24.3% 22.4% 19.6% 33.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Mustangs are 3-14-2 ATS as a HF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a FAV (s’/ 10/16/82) <strong>2016</strong> 3.5 (-120)<br />

2015 2.5 (-130) 2-10 und<br />

2014 5.5 (+280) 1-11 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+140) 5-7 und<br />

2012 6.5 (n/a) 6-6 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -17.9 (27.8-45.7) -119.3 (383-502) 72-71 5.3-7.1 -10<br />

’15 conf only -22.0 (24.9-46.9) -104.4 (347-452) 70-70 5.0-6.4 -12<br />

2014 All -30.2 (11.1-41.3) -230.4 (269-499) 66-75 4.1-6.6 -14<br />

’14 conf only -21.6 (15.1-36.8) -173.7 (300-474) 65-73 4.6-6.5 -6<br />

2013 All -6.6 (26.8-33.3) 22.6 (435-413) 79-74 5.5-5.6 -7<br />

’13 conf only -0.2 (29.6-29.9) 43.6 (443-400) 77-73 5.7-5.5 0<br />

2012 All 4.8 (30.5-25.7) -28.8 (367-396) 70-74 5.2-5.4 14<br />

’12 conf only 8.2 (32.4-24.1) 6.7 (379-372) 69-69 5.5-5.4 13<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 89% 91% 60% 61% 60% 62%<br />

Chad Morris did a solid job in year one here particularly on offense<br />

where SMU averaged 17 more ppg and 114 more ypg than in 2014.<br />

However, a banged up defense still remained one of the worst in the<br />

FBS and SMU only improved by 1 win. This year’s team is even better<br />

but again they might not improve too much in the W/L column.<br />

The offense is one of the most experienced in the country led by QB<br />

Matt Davis who had 3,024 total yards last year. The top 2 RB’s also<br />

return along with the top 6 WR’s. 3 starters are back on the OL (73<br />

career starts) but they do lose their top 2 guys who <strong>com</strong>bined for 85<br />

career starts by themselves<br />

The DL loses 3 of the top 4 but the Ponies return 4 of their top 6 LB’s<br />

and 3 of their top 4 DB’s as the unit had several different starting lineups<br />

a year ago due to injury.<br />

Big 12 powers Baylor and TCU are still on the non-conference schedule<br />

while the conference slate is not favorable either. They avoid UCF, play<br />

winnable games vs Tulsa and Tulane on the road and must host 4 of<br />

the AAC’s top teams in Houston, USF, Memphis and Navy.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at North Texas<br />

9/10 Sat at Baylor<br />

9/17 Sat Liberty<br />

9/24 Sat TCU<br />

10/1 Sat at Temple<br />

10/7 Fri at Tulsa<br />

10/22 Sat Houston<br />

10/29 Sat at Tulane<br />

11/5 Sat Memphis<br />

11/12 Sat at East Carolina<br />

11/19 Sat USF<br />

11/26 Sat Navy<br />

open<br />

SMU is 8-0 ATS as a HD after a<br />

win as a dog (s’/ 9/26/92)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 5-7 1-11 2-10<br />

Home 5-2 3-3 0-6 2-5<br />

Away 1-4 2-4 1-5 0-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 6-6 4-8 5-7<br />

HF 3-0 1-2 0-0 2-1<br />

HD 3-1 2-1 1-5 1-3<br />

AF 0-2 1-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 1-2 2-3 3-3 2-3<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-2 4-4 2-6<br />

Non Conf 3-2 1-4 0-4 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 6-0 4-2 4-7 3-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-0 2-2 4-6 3-4<br />

Off SU Win 2-4 2-3 0-0 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-4 2-3 0-0 1-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 7-5 8-4 8-4<br />

as HF 1-1 3-0 0-0 2-1<br />

as HD 2-2 2-1 3-3 3-1<br />

as AF 1-1 0-1 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 2-1 2-3 5-1 3-2<br />

vs Conf 5-3 4-3 5-3 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 3-2 3-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-3 5-1 8-3 6-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 3-1 7-3 4-3<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 1-4 0-0 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 1-4 0-0 1-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 8-5, 6-2 (#2 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-4, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #35 - #53<br />

SOS: #75 Adjusted Off – Def: #48 - #40<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #69<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #52 (73.8)<br />

South Florida<br />

The Bulls in ’16<br />

HC here: Willie Taggart– 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.9*, DEF-6.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #63<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

8.8% 31.1% 21.6% 38.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bulls are 0-7 ATS as n AF Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after being a HF (S’/ 10/6/08) <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-110)<br />

2015 4 (-105) 8-4 OV<br />

2014 4.5 (-130) 4-8 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-180) 2-10 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 10.7 (33.6-22.9) 61.2 (442-380) 69-73 6.4-5.2 10<br />

’15 conf only 14.8 (34.4-19.6) 59.8 (434-374) 68-73 6.4-5.1 5<br />

2014 All -9.8 (17.2-27.0) -98.4 (305-403) 62-71 4.9-5.7 0<br />

’14 conf only -8.4 (15.8-24.1) -63.6 (314-377) 65-66 4.8-5.8 -3<br />

2013 All -14.8 (13.8-28.6) -95.3 (256-351) 60-65 4.3-5.4 -3<br />

’13 conf only -10.6 (13.4-24.0) -94.6 (249-344) 59-66 4.3-5.3 0<br />

2012 All -6.8 (20.6-27.4) -34.8 (367-402) 70-72 5.3-5.6 -19<br />

’12 conf only -8.0 (18.3-26.3) -52.7 (338-391) 69-73 4.9-5.4 -13<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

93% 98% 87% 40% 45% 68% 76%<br />

Things didn’t look well for USF head coach Willie Taggart. He was just<br />

6-18 his first two years in Tampa and the Bulls started off 1-3 in 2015.<br />

Then things finally clicked as USF would proceed to win 7 of their last<br />

9 games including blowouts over Temple and Cincinnati and this year’s<br />

team looks even stronger.<br />

The running game is one of the best in the country led by RB Marlon<br />

Mack (1,381 rush yards last year) and dual-threat QB Quinton Flowers<br />

(991 rush yards). 6 of their top 7 receivers also return. The biggest<br />

question on offense is that they have to replace 3 starters on the OL<br />

and only have 36 career starts returning.<br />

The defense is also inexperienced up front as they lose 4 of their top<br />

6 DL. However, 3 starters return in the LB corps including leading<br />

tackler Auggie Sanchez (117 tackles). 6 players are back in the<br />

secondary who started at least one game in 2015.<br />

While the Bulls have arguably the most talented team in the AAC and<br />

avoid Houston, they do draw three tough road games (Cincinnati,<br />

Temple and Memphis). They still could top last year’s 8 wins.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Towson<br />

9/10 Sat No Illinois<br />

9/17 Sat at Syracuse<br />

9/24 Sat Florida St<br />

10/1 Sat at Cincinnati<br />

10/8 Sat East Carolina<br />

10/15 Sat Connecticut<br />

10/21 Fri at Temple<br />

10/28 Fri Navy<br />

11/12 Sat at Memphis<br />

11/19 Sat at SMU<br />

11/26 Sat UCF<br />

open<br />

USF is 7-0 ATS after a game as<br />

an underdog (s’/Oct 2, 2015)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 2-10 4-8 8-5<br />

Home 2-4 1-6 2-5 5-1<br />

Away 1-5 1-4 2-3 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 5-7 6-6 10-3<br />

HF 0-4 0-2 1-1 2-0<br />

HD 1-1 1-4 2-3 3-0<br />

AF 0-2 0-0 1-1 1-0<br />

AD 2-2 4-1 2-1 3-2<br />

vs Conf 1-6 3-4 4-4 7-1<br />

Non Conf 2-3 2-3 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-6 4-5 3-4 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-4 4-4 3-3 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 1-1 3-1 6-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 1-1 3-1 6-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 3-8 3-9 4-8 5-6<br />

as HF 1-2 1-1 1-1 0-1<br />

as HD 0-2 1-4 1-4 2-1<br />

as AF 1-1 0-0 1-1 0-1<br />

as AD 1-3 1-4 1-2 1-3<br />

vs Conf 2-5 1-6 2-6 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 2-3 2-2 2-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-6 2-7 2-5 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 2-6 1-5 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 0-2 1-3 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 0-2 1-3 4-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-4, 7-1 (#1 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-10<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #96 - #20<br />

SOS: #77 Adjusted Off – Def: #77 - #24<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #83<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #46 (75.2)<br />

Temple<br />

The Owls in ’16<br />

HC here: Matt Rhule – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.5*, DEF-5.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #57<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.3% 12.4% 39.4% 45.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Owls are 6-1 to the UNDER Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a loss by 10+ pts the L3Y <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-120)<br />

2015 7 (-130) 10-2 OV<br />

2014 4.5 (+130) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (+130) 2-10 und<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 4-7 push<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 9.7 (29.8-20.1) 29.7 (367-337) 68-67 5.4-5.0 3<br />

’15 conf only 11.3 (32.3-21.0) 62.9 (379-316) 67-67 5.7-4.7 4<br />

2014 All 5.6 (23.1-17.5) -38.7 (308-347) 64-73 4.8-4.8 3<br />

’14 conf only 0.2 (18.0-17.8) -69.5 (294-364) 61-77 4.8-4.7 -3<br />

2013 All -4.9 (24.9-29.8) -74.6 (399-474) 70-74 5.7-6.4 -6<br />

’13 conf only -6.6 (25.9-32.5) -67.7 (409-477) 69-74 5.9-6.4 -6<br />

2012 All -6.5 (24.7-31.2) -114.7 (322-437) 63-70 5.1-6.3 -2<br />

’12 conf only -16.1 (18.3-34.4) -138.7 (307-446) 66-68 4.7-6.5 -8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 97% 48% 49% 55% 57% 54%<br />

The Owls had a dream season last year (at least in the regular season).<br />

They upset Penn State, hosted ESPN <strong>College</strong> Gameday and won a<br />

division title. This year’s team looks a little bit weaker on paper<br />

(especially on defense) but an advantageous schedule could see them<br />

winning the AAC East Division for a 2 nd consecutive year.<br />

The diminutive PJ Walker returns for his 4 th year as the starting QB and<br />

he will be handing it off to the dangerous Jahad Thomas who ran for<br />

1,262 yards last year. The Owls do lose 2 of their top 3 receivers and<br />

must replace 3 starters on the OL that <strong>com</strong>bined for 95 career starts.<br />

Last year’s defense was among the best in the history of the program<br />

and they lose a total of 3 NFL draft choices. 3 of the top 4 DL are gone<br />

and they lose All-American LB Tyler Matakevich. The next 3 leading<br />

tacklers at LB do return but they lose 3 of the top 5 DB’s including<br />

Tavon Young (4 th round draft pick).<br />

Speaking of that advantageous schedule, they do host fellow East<br />

division contenders USF and Cincinnati in back-to-back weeks and<br />

should be favored in 8-9 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/2 Fri Army<br />

9/10 Sat Stony Brook<br />

9/17 Sat at Penn St<br />

9/24 Sat Charlotte<br />

10/1 Sat SMU<br />

10/6 Thu at Memphis<br />

10/15 Sat at UCF<br />

10/21 Fri USF<br />

10/29 Sat Cincinnati<br />

11/4 Fri at Connecticut<br />

11/19 Sat at Tulane<br />

11/26 Sat East Carolina<br />

open<br />

Temple is 8-0 ATS as a HD after<br />

a loss at home (s’/ 11/18/00)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-7 2-10 6-6 10-4<br />

Home 2-4 1-5 3-3 5-1<br />

Away 2-3 1-5 3-3 5-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-7 8-4 6-6 9-5<br />

HF 1-1 1-2 1-1 2-1<br />

HD 1-3 2-1 2-2 3-0<br />

AF 0-0 0-1 2-0 2-2<br />

AD 2-3 5-0 1-3 2-1<br />

vs Conf 2-5 5-2 4-4 6-3<br />

Non Conf 2-2 3-2 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 6-4 3-3 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-4 3-1 1-2 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 1-0 2-3 6-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 1-0 2-3 6-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-3 5-7 4-7 5-9<br />

as HF 1-0 1-2 2-0 2-1<br />

as HD 3-1 1-2 0-4 0-3<br />

as AF 0-0 0-1 0-1 2-2<br />

as AD 3-2 3-2 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 5-2 3-4 2-5 5-4<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 2-3 2-2 0-5<br />

Off SU Loss 4-2 4-6 3-3 1-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-2 1-3 1-2 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-1 1-0 1-3 4-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-1 1-0 1-3 4-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 1-7 (T #5-#6 AAC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #121 - #81<br />

SOS: #96 Adjusted Off – Def: #117 - #92<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #93<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #104 (53.2)<br />

Tulane<br />

The Green Wave in ’16<br />

HC here: Willie Fritz – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-8.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #83<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

13.6% 29.9% 36.7% 19.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Green Wave are 9-3 to the Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

UNDER as a HD (s’/ 11/1/12) <strong>2016</strong> 3.5 (-110)<br />

2015 5 (-120) 3-9 und<br />

2014 4.5 (+165) 3-9 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+100) 7-5 OV<br />

2012 1.5 (n/a) 2-10 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -16.6 (19.7-36.2) -95.3 (317-412) 67-71 4.8-5.8 1<br />

’15 conf only -18.5 (18.4-36.9) -95.9 (303-399) 67-69 4.5-5.8 1<br />

2014 All -12.4 (16.0-28.4) -41.1 (347-388) 72-69 4.8-5.7 3<br />

’14 conf only -11.0 (14.6-25.6) -43.2 (347-391) 72-70 4.8-5.6 5<br />

2013 All 3.4 (24.8-21.4) -40.3 (311-351) 67-72 4.6-4.9 11<br />

’13 conf only 5.0 (22.5-17.5) -49.6 (290-340) 67-71 4.3-4.8 3<br />

2012 All -17.0 (21.4-38.4) -162.8 (320-483) 68-76 4.7-6.4 -9<br />

’12 conf only -9.0 (27.8-36.8) -124.4 (380-504) 69-79 5.5-6.4 -4<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

7% 81% 69% 48% 80% 83% 74%<br />

Tulane made a shockingly great hire this off-season. Willie Fritz isn’t a<br />

flashy name, but he has two decades worth of head coaching<br />

experience and did a terrific job at Georgia Southern and Sam Houston<br />

State and now takes over a Tulane program in a very fertile recruiting<br />

area. However, there could be growing pains in year one.<br />

The offense loses both QB’s who started last year, their leading<br />

receiver and 3 starters on the OL who <strong>com</strong>bined for 92 career starts.<br />

On the bright side, they return a good 1-2 punch at RB in Dontrell<br />

Hilliard and Sherman Badie.<br />

The defense is much more experienced as they return 4 of their top 6<br />

DL. The LB corps returns their entire 2-deep led by 1 st -team All-AAC<br />

Nico Marley (3-year starter) and the secondary is just as experienced<br />

with the return of 7 of their top 8, but they do lose a 4-year starter in<br />

Darion Monroe (334 career tackles).<br />

While they have a manageable non-conference slate with 3 winnable<br />

games, the conference schedule could see them an underdog in at<br />

least 7 of their 8 games.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at Wake Forest<br />

9/10 Sat Southern<br />

9/17 Sat Navy<br />

9/24 Sat ULL<br />

10/1 Sat at UMass<br />

10/7 Fri at UCF<br />

10/14 Fri Memphis<br />

10/22 Sat at Tulsa<br />

10/29 Sat SMU<br />

11/12 Sat at Houston<br />

11/19 Sat Temple<br />

11/26 Sat at Connecticut<br />

open<br />

Tulane is 1-11 ATS after a win on<br />

the road (since/ Dec 4, 2004)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 2-10 7-6 3-9 3-9<br />

Home 2-5 5-1 2-4 2-4<br />

Away 0-5 2-4 1-5 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-6 9-4 4-8 6-6<br />

HF 0-0 2-1 2-0 2-0<br />

HD 5-2 3-0 0-4 1-3<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 1-3 4-2 2-4 3-3<br />

vs Conf 5-3 7-1 3-5 4-4<br />

Non Conf 1-3 2-3 1-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-6 4-1 3-5 5-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-4 2-0 3-3 4-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-0 4-3 1-2 1-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-0 4-3 1-2 1-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-7 4-8 5-7 7-5<br />

as HF 0-0 1-1 1-1 2-0<br />

as HD 4-3 1-2 1-3 1-3<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 0-4 2-4 3-3 4-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 2-5 2-6 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 2-3 3-1 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 4-5 0-4 3-5 4-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-4 0-2 2-4 3-4<br />

Off SU Win 1-1 4-3 1-2 3-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-1 4-3 1-2 3-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 6-7, 3-5 (#4 AAC-West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-10*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #13 - #127<br />

SOS: #79 Adjusted Off – Def: #13 - #127<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #114<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #93 (61.2)<br />

Tulsa<br />

The Golden Hurricane in ’16<br />

HC here: Philip Montgomery – 2 nd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.3*, DEF-7.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #94<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.9% 26.0% 32.3% 30.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Golden Hurricane are 3-14-1 Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

ATS at home (s’/ 9/07/13)<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-120)<br />

2015 5 (-105) 6-6 OV<br />

2014 5.5 (+140) 2-10 und<br />

2013 8.5 (-185) 3-9 und<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -2.7 (37.2-39.8) -29.2 (507-537) 83-81 6.1-6.6 4<br />

’15 conf only -6.2 (34.0-40.2) -74.9 (456-531) 78-82 5.8-6.5 0<br />

2014 All -14.6 (24.7-39.2) -74.3 (413-487) 80-70 5.2-7.0 -8<br />

’14 conf only -9.1 (27.1-36.2) -45.8 (429-475) 77-71 5.6-6.7 1<br />

2013 All -12.8 (21.1-33.9) -73.4 (356-430) 76-78 4.7-5.5 -10<br />

’13 conf only -10.2 (21.9-32.1) -70.5 (360-430) 78-78 4.6-5.5 -5<br />

2012 All 11.1 (34.7-23.6) 109.4 (457-348) 83-72 5.5-4.9 3<br />

’12 conf only 12.1 (36.0-23.9) 151.7 (487-335) 85-71 5.8-4.7 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 66% 51% 60% 59% 90% 59%<br />

Last year former Baylor offensive coordinator Philip Montgomery<br />

brought an exciting brand of football to Tulsa as the Golden Hurricane<br />

averaged 37 ppg and 507 ypg on offense. The problem is their defense<br />

allowed 40 ppg and 537 ypg. Still, it was a successful first season with<br />

Tulsa going from 2-10 to a bowl and this year’s team looks just as good.<br />

The offense should be potent once again as they return QB Dane Evans<br />

who threw for 4,332 yards a year ago. 2 of the top 3 RB’s are back as<br />

well as 2 of their top 3 WR’s but they do lose Keyarris Garrett (1,588<br />

yards). 8 of the top 10 OL are back (52 career starts).<br />

On defense, 8 of the top 11 are back on the DL and the LB corps sees<br />

the return of their top 3. The secondary returns 3 of their top 4 but<br />

they do lose leading tackler Michael Mudoh (135 tackles a year ago).<br />

This year’s schedule looks favorable once again for a return to the<br />

post-season (favored in 6-7 games). However, they do have to travel<br />

to Ohio State in non-conference action and also have to play at<br />

Houston, at Memphis and at Navy in conference action (the top 3<br />

teams in the West Division a year ago).<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat San Jose St<br />

9/10 Sat at Ohio St<br />

9/17 Sat NC A&T<br />

9/24 Sat at Fresno St<br />

10/7 Fri SMU<br />

10/15 Sat at Houston<br />

10/22 Sat Tulane<br />

10/29 Sat at Memphis<br />

11/5 Sat East Carolina<br />

11/12 Sat at Navy<br />

11/19 Sat at UCF<br />

11/25 Fri Cincinnati<br />

open<br />

Tulsa is 9-0 ATS away after<br />

being an AD (s’/9/6/03)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-3 3-9 2-10 6-7<br />

Home 7-0 1-5 2-4 3-3<br />

Away 3-3 2-4 0-6 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-5 3-9 5-7 8-5<br />

HF 4-2 0-4 1-2 0-2<br />

HD 0-0 1-1 1-2 0-3<br />

AF 2-3 2-1 0-1 2-0<br />

AD 1-0 0-3 3-2 3-0<br />

vs Conf 5-3 3-5 5-3 3-4<br />

Non Conf 3-2 0-4 0-4 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 3-5 4-5 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 2-4 3-4 2-3<br />

Off SU Win 5-4 0-3 0-2 4-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-4 0-3 0-2 4-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-8 7-5 9-2 7-6<br />

as HF 1-5 3-1 3-0 2-1<br />

as HD 0-0 2-0 3-0 1-2<br />

as AF 4-1 0-3 1-0 1-1<br />

as AD 0-1 2-1 2-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-4 6-1 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 1-3 3-1 3-1 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-2 5-3 7-1 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 5-1 7-0 2-4<br />

Off SU Win 3-6 2-1 1-1 4-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-6 2-1 1-1 4-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 0-12, 0-8 (#6 AAC-East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #128 - #115<br />

SOS: #86 Adjusted Off – Def: #127 - #117<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #72<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #126 (44.4)<br />

UCF<br />

The Knights in ’16<br />

HC here: Scott Frost – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.2*, DEF-7.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #61<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

28.0% 20.1% 34.8% 17.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Knight are 2-12 ATS on the Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

road after a road loss (s’/9/27/03) <strong>2016</strong> 5 (-110)<br />

2015 7 (-120) 0-12 und<br />

2014 8.5 (+135) 9-3 OV<br />

2013 8.5 (+125) 11-1 OV<br />

2012 8.5 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -23.8 (13.9-37.7) -195.7 (268-464) 65-71 4.1-6.5 -20<br />

’15 conf only -30.2 (14.6-44.9) -221.3 (281-502) 65-73 4.3-6.9 -15<br />

2014 All 8.9 (28.1-19.2) 65.1 (364-299) 72-67 5.0-4.5 -1<br />

’14 conf only 14.0 (29.0-15.0) 127.8 (384-256) 75-64 5.2-4.0 2<br />

2013 All 13.3 (34.6-21.3) 79.5 (442-362) 67-68 6.6-5.4 5<br />

’13 conf only 11.8 (32.9-21.1) 74.5 (423-349) 69-67 6.2-5.2 4<br />

2012 All 13.4 (35.4-22.1) 33.8 (407-374) 67-73 6.1-5.1 12<br />

’12 conf only 14.6 (37.4-22.9) 10.1 (405-395) 65-76 6.3-5.2 9<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

76% 98% 98% 80% 51% 63% 95%<br />

In just two years, UCF went from a top 10 finish which included a win<br />

in the Fiesta Bowl to a winless 0-12 season with head coach George<br />

O’Leary stepping down. This year former Oregon offensive<br />

coordinator Scott Frost takes over and the early returns have been<br />

positive thanks to an impressive recruiting class while also inheriting<br />

one of the most experienced teams in the country.<br />

The offense, which will move to an up-tempo Oregon-style sees the<br />

return of 2-year starting QB Justin Holman, their top 3 RB’s and their<br />

top 8 WR’s. 4 starters also return on an OL that started 10 different<br />

players a year ago (71 career starts).<br />

The defense isn’t as experienced as they lose 3 of their top 4 DL. They<br />

do return 5 of their top 6 LB’s (lose top guy) and return all 4 starters in<br />

the secondary. Remarkably as bad as UCF was a year ago, they still had<br />

a Top 15 special teams unit and both specialists return.<br />

While the Knights could be the most improved team in the entire<br />

country this year, they have a long ways to go to get back to bowl<br />

eligibility and could be favored in only 3 games this year.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat S Carolina St<br />

9/10 Sat at Michigan<br />

9/17 Sat Maryland<br />

9/24 Sat at FIU<br />

10/1 Sat at East Carolina<br />

10/7 Fri Tulane<br />

10/15 Sat Temple<br />

10/22 Sat at Connecticut<br />

10/29 Sat at Houston<br />

11/12 Sat Cincinnati<br />

11/19 Sat Tulsa<br />

11/26 Sat at USF<br />

open<br />

UCF is 11-0-1 ATS the game<br />

after being an AF (s’/10/29/11)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 10-4 12-1 9-4 0-12<br />

Home 5-1 5-1 6-0 0-6<br />

Away 4-3 6-0 3-2 0-6<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-6 8-5 8-5 2-10<br />

HF 3-3 3-2 5-1 0-2<br />

HD 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-4<br />

AF 2-2 1-3 1-1 0-0<br />

AD 1-1 2-0 2-1 2-4<br />

vs Conf 4-4 1-0 6-2 2-6<br />

Non Conf 3-2 7-5 2-3 0-4<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 0-1 2-1 2-9<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-1 0-0 1-0 2-7<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 7-4 6-3 0-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 7-4 6-3 0-0<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 10-4 5-8 7-6 5-6<br />

as HF 5-1 1-4 3-3 0-2<br />

as HD 0-0 0-1 0-0 2-2<br />

as AF 4-0 1-3 1-1 0-0<br />

as AD 1-2 2-0 1-2 3-2<br />

vs Conf 8-1 0-1 4-4 5-3<br />

vs Non Conf 2-3 5-7 3-2 0-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-1 0-1 0-3 5-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-0 0-0 0-1 5-4<br />

Off SU Win 6-3 5-6 6-3 0-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 6-3 5-6 6-3 0-0


2015 FINAL<br />

Overall Pts/G Conference<br />

EAST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

WKU 12 2 85.7% 44.3 25.9 9 0 100.0%<br />

Marshall 10 3 76.9% 31.3 17.8 6 2 75.0%<br />

Middle Tenn St 7 6 53.8% 34.0 26.6 6 2 75.0%<br />

FIU 5 7 41.7% 25.5 29.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Old Dominion 5 7 41.7% 24.3 35.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Florida Atlantic 3 9 25.0% 22.5 28.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

Charlotte 2 10 16.7% 17.5 36.3 0 8 0.0%<br />

WEST W L Pct Own Opp W L Pct<br />

Southern Miss 9 5 64.3% 39.9 25.6 7 2 77.8%<br />

Louisiana Tech 9 4 69.2% 37.5 26.8 6 2 75.0%<br />

Rice 5 7 41.7% 26.1 35.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

UTEP 5 7 41.7% 20.7 32.9 3 5 37.5%<br />

UTSA 3 9 25.0% 22.6 33.8 3 5 37.5%<br />

North Texas 1 11 8.3% 15.2 41.3 1 7 12.5%<br />

BRAD POWER<br />

<strong>2016</strong> POWER RATINGS<br />

Rank Team Rating<br />

60 WKU 73.15<br />

70 Marshall 70.68<br />

82 Southern Miss 68.01<br />

87 Middle Tenn 66.73<br />

92 La Tech 64.41<br />

100 Florida Atlantic 60.35<br />

108 Old Dominion 58.30<br />

109 Rice 58.03<br />

113 FIU 56.82<br />

116 UTEP 55.83<br />

122 UTSA 52.78<br />

124 Charlotte 51.45<br />

126 North Texas 49.66


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 2-10, 0-8 (#7 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9*, DEF-7<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #112 - #89<br />

SOS: #126 Adjusted Off – Def: #125 - #103<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #127<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #127 (43.2)<br />

Charlotte<br />

The 49ers in ’16<br />

HC here: Brad Lambert – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-9.0*, DEF-7.7<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #113<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

10.7% 19.1% 51.1% 19.1%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Charlotte was 2-10 last<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

season but they outgained<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 2.5 (-120)<br />

2015 2.5 (-130) 2-10 und<br />

6 of their 12 opponents<br />

2014 FCS - -<br />

2013 FCS - -<br />

2012 FCS - -<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -18.8 (17.5-36.2) -79.9 (337-417) 78-76 4.3-5.5 -13<br />

Conf only -21.2 (17.5-38.8) -133.8 (322-456) 79-80 4.1-5.7 -9<br />

2014 FCS - - - - -<br />

’14 conf only - - - - -<br />

2013 FCS - - - - -<br />

’13 conf only - - - - -<br />

2012 No tm<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at Louisville<br />

9/10 Sat Elon<br />

9/17 Sat Eastern Mich<br />

9/24 Sat at Temple<br />

10/1 Sat Old Dominion<br />

10/8 Sat at Fla Atlantic<br />

10/15 Sat FIU<br />

10/22 Sat at Marshall<br />

11/5 Sat at Southern Miss<br />

11/12 Sat Rice<br />

11/19 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

11/26 Sat at UTSA<br />

open<br />

In 5 games last season the 49ers<br />

were up or tied at halftime<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 74% 87% 80% 86% 63% 68%<br />

After starting off 2-0 in their first year of FBS play, the 49ers took some<br />

predictable lumps losing their last 10 games by an average of 25 ppg.<br />

This year’s team should be more <strong>com</strong>petitive thanks to the return of a<br />

17 starters.<br />

Normally with 9 offensive starters back the team is ready to take it to<br />

the next level. Three QB’s made starts and all 3 return but JUCO Kevin<br />

Olsen won the job out of spring. They lose one RB, but he was their #2<br />

and the starting receivers are all back. On the OL, they only lose one<br />

starter but he was the only one who made all 12 starts last year and<br />

was a 3-year starter (do have 106 career starts back).<br />

The defense losses 3 starters, one from each unit, with the main loss<br />

at ILB with the team’s #2 tackler. The DL has 4 senior starters led by<br />

NT Larry Ogunjobi (14.5 TFL) and the secondary does return 4 players<br />

with starting experience.<br />

The schedule could the 49ers favored in 2-3 games (only favored in 1<br />

game last year) and this year’s team should fare better than the one<br />

that was out-scored by 21 ppg in CUSA play last year.<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 0-0 5-6 5-6 2-10<br />

Home 0-0 3-3 3-3 1-5<br />

Away 0-0 2-3 2-3 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-6<br />

HF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-3<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 3-3<br />

vs Conf 0-0 0-0 0-0 3-4<br />

Non Conf 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 0-0 0-0 3-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 3-3<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 0-0 0-0 0-0 5-6<br />

as HF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-4<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-2<br />

vs Conf 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 0-0 0-0 4-5<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 3-4<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 3-5 (T #4-#6 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #106 - #77<br />

SOS: #106 Adjusted Off – Def: #116 - #76<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #80<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #100 (53.9)<br />

Fla Atlantic<br />

The Owls in ’16<br />

HC here: Charlie Partridge – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8, DEF-6.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #98<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

14.8% 29.9% 23.9% 31.4%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Owls are 8-0 ATS as an AD Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a road game (s’/9/15/12) <strong>2016</strong> 4.5 (-110)<br />

2015 5 (-130) 3-9 und<br />

2014 5.5 (-130) 3-9 und<br />

2013 3.5 (+155) 6-6 OV<br />

2012 2 (n/a) 3-9 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -6.2 (22.5-28.8) -28.6 (377-405) 74-73 5.1-5.5 -2<br />

Conf only -3.0 (22.1-25.1) -49.8 (347-397) 69-73 5.0-5.4 4<br />

2014 All -10.4 (24.0-34.4) -97.7 (363-461) 67-74 5.4-6.2 -3<br />

Conf only -8.0 (26.5-34.5) -28.7 (400-429) 72-73 5.6-5.9 -4<br />

2013 All 4.2 (26.4-22.2) 57.6 (380-323) 71-67 5.4-4.8 -3<br />

Conf only 6.2 (27.2-21.0) 134.3 (407-273) 76-65 5.4-4.2 -5<br />

2012 All -10.3 (20.5-30.8) -55.4 (350-405) 69-66 5.1-6.2 -2<br />

Conf only -6.5 (24.4-30.9) 10.1 (390-380) 72-67 5.4-5.7 -2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

38% 65% 63% 80% 57% 79% 64%<br />

After going just 6-18 in his first two seasons, this should be head coach<br />

Charlie Partridge’s best team yet in Boca Raton thanks to the return of<br />

15 starters.<br />

The offense struggled last year with QB injuries which could actually<br />

help this season’s prospects. Now sophomore Jason Driskel has some<br />

starting experience which he needed as he <strong>com</strong>pleted just 51% last<br />

year with a 3-4 ratio. The top 2 RB’s return and the receiving unit<br />

returns 5 of the top 6 but does loss their #1 who had over double the<br />

yards of their #2. The only loss from the OL was last season’s LG and<br />

they have 79 career starts.<br />

While they lose a couple of big DT’s, they return DE Trey Hendrickson<br />

who had 13 sacks a year ago. The LB’s return their top 2 starters while<br />

the secondary does not only have to replace its top tackler, but their<br />

best CB as well.<br />

While they must play at Miami, Fl and Kansas St in non-conference<br />

action, the Owls could be favored in 5 of their 6 home games and<br />

should easily top last year’s 3-win total.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat So Illinois<br />

9/10 Sat at Miami (FL)<br />

9/17 Sat at Kansas St<br />

9/24 Sat Ball St<br />

10/1 Sat at FIU<br />

10/8 Sat Charlotte<br />

10/15 Sat at Marshall<br />

10/29 Sat WKU<br />

11/5 Sat at Rice<br />

11/12 Sat UTEP<br />

11/19 Sat Old Dominion<br />

11/26 Sat at Middle Tenn<br />

open<br />

Fla Atlantic is 1-13 ATS as a FAV<br />

after a game as a dog (s’/10/3/09)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 6-6 3-9 3-9<br />

Home 2-3 3-2 3-2 1-5<br />

Away 1-6 3-4 0-7 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-4 9-3 6-5 4-7<br />

HF 0-2 2-1 0-2 0-2<br />

HD 1-1 1-1 3-0 1-3<br />

AF 0-0 1-0 0-2 0-2<br />

AD 6-1 5-1 3-1 3-0<br />

vs Conf 4-3 6-2 4-4 2-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 3-1 2-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 6-1 5-1 4-3 2-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-1 3-0 3-1 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 1-2 3-2 2-1 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-2 3-2 2-1 1-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-5 5-7 7-5 3-8<br />

as HF 1-0 2-1 1-1 0-2<br />

as HD 1-2 1-1 3-0 1-2<br />

as AF 0-0 0-1 1-1 1-2<br />

as AD 3-3 2-4 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 4-3 3-5 5-3 1-6<br />

vs Non Conf 1-2 2-2 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-4 3-3 5-3 2-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-3 1-2 4-1 0-5<br />

Off SU Win 1-1 2-3 1-2 0-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-1 2-3 1-2 0-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 3-5 (T #4-#6 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #81 - #71<br />

SOS: #121 Adjusted Off – Def: #103 - #108<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #98<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #110 (52.2)<br />

FIU<br />

The Golden Panthers in ’16<br />

HC here: Ron Turner – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.8*, DEF-5.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #105<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

16.3% 28.0% 21.2% 34.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

LY FBS teams lost by 50+ Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

pts 19 times including<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 6.5 (-110)<br />

2015 6 (+155) 5-7 und<br />

FIU twice in B2B games.<br />

2014 2.5 (-150) 4-8 OV<br />

2013 2.5 (-140) 1-11 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -4.3 (25.5-29.8) -57.9 (348-406) 69-71 5.1-5.7 3<br />

Conf only -6.8 (27.0-33.8) -91.6 (337-429) 66-71 5.1-6.1 3<br />

2014 All -1.8 (23.0-24.8) -71.6 (293-365) 68-68 4.3-5.4 11<br />

Conf only -0.4 (25.2-25.6) -87.4 (307-395) 68-69 4.5-5.8 7<br />

2013 All -27.2 (9.8-37.0) -210.7 (219-430) 62-65 3.6-6.6 -6<br />

Conf only -20.4 (11.8-32.1) -168.6 (254-422) 66-67 3.9-6.3 -3<br />

2012 All -6.7 (25.0-31.7) -18.9 (384-403) 72-72 5.4-5.6 -4<br />

Conf only -5.4 (24.0-29.4) -28.4 (378-406) 71-72 5.4-5.7 -5<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

95% 83% 64% 92% 31% 67% 61%<br />

After starting off with a disastrous 1-11 record in his first season, head<br />

coach Ron Turner has improved the Golden Panthers win total to 4<br />

wins in 2014 and 5 wins last year and he has FIU thinking a return to<br />

the post-season for the first time since 2012.<br />

When your team goes through an injury plagued season it helps the<br />

depth the next season. The offense losses one starting receiver and<br />

two others, but still returns their top 3 producers. The OL was a MASH<br />

unit as they lose one 3-year starter, although he only made 5 starts<br />

last season and they return 92 career starts.<br />

The defensive line loses 3 starters and almost all of their production<br />

from last year (just 0.5 of 17 sacks and 2 of 37 TFL’s return). The LB<br />

corps is the opposite as they only have to replace one starter and<br />

return 5 of their top 6 tacklers. The secondary loses their top 2, but<br />

everyone else in the two deep returns.<br />

FIU’s schedule is interesting as while they have 7 home games, they<br />

could find themselves an underdog in 5 of them as they host a pair of<br />

Big Ten teams and 3 of the top 4 teams in CUSA.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu Indiana<br />

9/9 Fri Maryland<br />

9/17 Sat at UMass<br />

9/24 Sat UCF<br />

10/1 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

10/8 Sat at UTEP<br />

10/15 Sat at Charlotte<br />

10/22 Sat La Tech<br />

10/29 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

11/5 Sat at WKU<br />

11/19 Sat Marshall<br />

11/26 Sat at Old Dominion<br />

open<br />

FIU’s spring roster had 84<br />

players, 76 were from Florida.<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 1-11 4-8 5-7<br />

Home 1-5 0-6 3-5 4-1<br />

Away 2-4 1-5 1-3 1-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-7 4-8 8-4 5-6<br />

HF 0-1 0-0 1-0 2-1<br />

HD 1-4 2-4 4-3 0-1<br />

AF 1-0 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

AD 3-2 2-4 3-1 3-2<br />

vs Conf 3-5 4-5 5-3 4-4<br />

Non Conf 2-2 0-3 3-1 1-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-5 3-7 4-3 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-3 3-6 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 2-1 1-0 3-1 2-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-1 1-0 3-1 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 7-5 3-8 5-6 6-4<br />

as HF 1-0 0-0 0-1 3-0<br />

as HD 1-4 1-4 4-3 1-0<br />

as AF 0-1 0-0 0-0 0-1<br />

as AD 5-0 2-4 1-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-4 1-8 4-3 4-2<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-0 1-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 4-4 2-7 3-3 4-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 2-6 1-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Win 2-1 0-1 2-2 2-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-1 0-1 2-2 2-2


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-4, 6-2 (#2 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7, DEF-6<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #21 - #49<br />

SOS: #98 Adjusted Off – Def: #36 - #54<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #3 - #82<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #61 (70.9)<br />

Louisiana Tech<br />

The Bulldogs in ’16<br />

HC here: Skip Holtz – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.3, DEF-3<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #2 - #90<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

9.8% 10.1% 22.0% 58.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Bulldogs are 9-0 ATS after Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

a loss as a favorite s’/10/21/06) <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-110)<br />

2015 8 (-115) 8-4 push<br />

2014 5.5 (-170) 8-4 OV<br />

2013 5.5 (-180) 4-8 und<br />

2012 8 (n/a) 9-3 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 10.7 (37.5-26.8) 106.9 (483-376) 70-71 6.9-5.3 1<br />

Conf only 9.4 (35.4-26.0) 69.9 (464-394) 68-73 6.8-5.4 -3<br />

2014 All 12.6 (37.4-24.7) 38.3 (401-363) 68-73 5.9-4.9 16<br />

Conf only 21.7 (42.2-20.6) 82.7 (415-333) 70-73 5.9-4.6 16<br />

2013 All -7.1 (19.2-26.2) -42.1 (366-408) 72-77 5.1-5.3 -3<br />

Conf only -6.2 (20.4-26.6) -44.3 (352-396) 73-76 4.8-5.2 1<br />

2012 All 13.0 (51.5-38.5) 51.8 (578-526) 88-80 6.6-6.5 13<br />

Conf only 11.8 (49.2-37.3) 120.5 (617-497) 93-72 6.7-6.9 0<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

4% 29% 70% 63% 49% 20% 48%<br />

After back-to-back 9-win campaigns that featured impressive bowl<br />

victories, 4 th -year head coach Skip Holtz may have his work cut out for<br />

him this year. The Bulldogs are one of the least experienced teams in<br />

the country with just 9 returning starters.<br />

While the offense “only” losses 5 starters the group includes a 4,000-<br />

yard passer and one of the most prolific RB’s in the FBS in Kenneth<br />

Dixon (over 5,000 yds of offense & #2 all-time FBS TD’s). The receiving<br />

corps is a strength with their leader back and 5 of their top 6 while the<br />

OL bring back an all-conference center and both left side starters.<br />

The defense will clearly have to rebuild. The return 2 of their 4 DL but<br />

as big of a loss as Dixon was on offense, DT Vernon Butler’s loss may<br />

be bigger as he departs as a #1 draft choice. La Tech will need to<br />

replace all 3 starting LB’s as well as both CB’s and their leading tackler<br />

from the secondary.<br />

The schedule sees the Bulldogs with 7 road games including 2 vs Power<br />

5 conference teams along with fellow CUSA West favorite Southern<br />

Miss. We don’t see them matching last year’s 9 wins.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at Arkansas<br />

9/10 Sat S Carolina St<br />

9/17 Sat at Texas Tech<br />

9/24 Sat at Middle Tenn<br />

10/1 Sat UTEP<br />

10/8 Sat WKU<br />

10/15 Sat at UMass<br />

10/22 Sat at FIU<br />

10/29 Sat Rice<br />

11/5 Sat at North Texas<br />

11/12 Sat UTSA<br />

11/25 Fri at Southern Miss<br />

open<br />

La Tech is 10-1 ATS as a HD<br />

after a home game (s’/11/13/93)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 9-3 4-8 9-5 9-4<br />

Home 4-1 2-3 4-1 5-1<br />

Away 5-1 2-4 4-4 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-6 4-8 11-3 7-6<br />

HF 1-2 1-2 3-2 4-2<br />

HD 0-1 0-2 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 2-2 2-0 2-1 1-3<br />

AD 1-1 1-3 5-0 1-1<br />

vs Conf 1-4 3-5 7-2 3-5<br />

Non Conf 4-2 1-3 4-1 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 1-1 3-4 5-0 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 2-3 2-0 2-0<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 1-3 5-3 3-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 1-3 5-3 3-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 11-1 2-10 6-5 7-5<br />

as HF 4-0 0-3 2-1 2-3<br />

as HD 1-0 0-2 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 3-1 1-1 1-2 2-2<br />

as AD 2-0 1-3 3-1 2-0<br />

vs Conf 4-1 2-6 4-3 4-4<br />

vs Non Conf 7-0 0-4 2-2 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 1-6 2-1 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-4 1-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 8-1 1-3 3-4 5-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 8-1 1-3 3-4 5-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 10-3, 6-2 (T #2-#3 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5, DEF-4<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #64 - #35<br />

SOS: #119 Adjusted Off – Def: #86 - #51<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #75<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #66 (70.0)<br />

Marshall<br />

The Thundering Herd in ’16<br />

HC here: Doc Holliday – 7 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-3.8<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #1 - #60<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

11.5% 17.8% 24.1% 46.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Herd are +19.1 ppg in<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

conference action the L2Y. <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (-125)<br />

2015 10 (-105) 9-3 un<br />

Second only to Ohio St (+22.6)<br />

2014 10.5 (-300) 11-1 OV<br />

2013 9.5 (+125) 9-3 und<br />

2012 5.5 (n/a) 5-7 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 13.5 (31.3-17.8) 40.0 (400-360) 74-77 5.4-4.7 4<br />

Conf only 15.8 (32.4-16.6) 46.6 (423-376) 76-78 5.6-4.8 8<br />

2014 All 24.6 (45.6-21.0) 202.1 (559-357) 74-75 7.6-4.7 -2<br />

Conf only 22.0 (44.9-22.9) 186.3 (549-362) 73-76 7.6-4.8 -5<br />

2013 All 19.2 (42.1-22.9) 131.8 (500-369) 78-75 6.4-4.9 3<br />

Conf only 19.6 (44.4-24.9) 106.5 (510-403) 76-77 6.8-5.2 2<br />

2012 All -2.2 (40.9-43.1) 77.7 (534-457) 91-79 5.9-5.8 -2<br />

Conf only -0.8 (42.5-43.2) 72.3 (528-456) 89-78 5.9-5.8 3<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 60% 88% 38% 61% 68% 30%<br />

After averaging just 5 wins per year from 2004-2012, the Thundering<br />

Herd have notched at least 10 wins in each of the last 3 years. They<br />

may be hard-pressed to match that win total this year as they return<br />

only 11 starters.<br />

After going with a freshman QB last season the Herd now have a<br />

sophomore that posted a 23-8 ratio. Five RB’s had between 327 yards<br />

and 593 yards but they do lose their stud. The receiving unit has holes<br />

to fill as they have to replace their top 2 which <strong>com</strong>bined for 114<br />

receptions and 1,420 yards, which was over 47%. They lose only one<br />

from the OL but he was a 1 st team all-conference LG and 3-year starter.<br />

The defense will be missing both DT’s, their top 2 LB’s plus 3 DB’s<br />

including their top CB. While the losses are significant they also only<br />

returned 4 defensive starters last year and gave up just 17.9 ppg (best<br />

here since 1999).<br />

While Marshall gets fellow East rivals (MT and WKU) at home, they<br />

also pull a road trip to West favorite Southern Miss and their nonconference<br />

schedule includes Louisville and Pittsburgh.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/10 Sat Morgan St<br />

9/17 Sat Akron<br />

9/24 Sat Louisville<br />

10/1 Sat at Pittsburgh<br />

10/8 Sat at North Texas<br />

10/15 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

10/22 Sat Charlotte<br />

10/29 Sat at Southern Miss<br />

11/5 Sat at Old Dominion<br />

11/12 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

11/19 Sat at FIU<br />

11/26 Sat WKU<br />

open<br />

Marshall is 7-0 ATS at home after<br />

a FBS win at home (s’/ 9/10/05)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 5-7 10-4 13-1 10-3<br />

Home 3-3 6-0 6-1 6-0<br />

Away 2-4 3-4 6-0 3-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-7 9-5 8-5 7-5<br />

HF 0-3 6-0 3-3 4-2<br />

HD 1-2 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

AF 0-1 1-5 4-2 2-1<br />

AD 3-1 1-0 0-0 0-2<br />

vs Conf 2-5 5-4 5-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-2 4-1 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 1-4 4-0 0-1 2-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-3 1-0 0-0 1-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-2 4-5 8-3 4-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-2 4-5 8-3 4-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 9-2 7-7 8-6 3-8<br />

as HF 2-0 3-3 3-4 1-4<br />

as HD 2-1 0-0 0-0 0-0<br />

as AF 1-1 4-2 4-2 1-2<br />

as AD 4-0 0-1 0-0 1-1<br />

vs Conf 7-1 7-2 4-5 1-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 0-5 4-1 2-3<br />

Off SU Loss 5-0 1-3 0-1 0-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 0-1 0-0 0-2<br />

Off SU Win 3-2 6-3 7-5 2-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-2 6-3 7-5 2-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 7-6, 6-2 (T #2-#3 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8*, DEF-8<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #32 - #75<br />

SOS: #95 Adjusted Off – Def: #51 - #88<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #86<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #90 (62.4)<br />

Middle Tenn St<br />

The Blue Raiders in ’16<br />

HC here: Rick Stockstill – 11 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.3*, DEF-4.5<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #93<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

12.6% 5.9% 34.6% 46.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Blue Raiders and Ole Miss Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

were the only two teams to <strong>2016</strong> 7.5 (-110)<br />

2015 7 (-105) 7-5 push<br />

reach 70 points twice LY<br />

2014 6.5 (+100) 6-6 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-150) 7-5 OV<br />

2012 4.5 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 7.4 (34.0-26.6) 51.8 (457-406) 77-74 5.9-5.5 -4<br />

Conf only 10.9 (36.6-25.8) 109.5 (492-383) 77-75 6.4-5.1 0<br />

2014 All 0.1 (31.6-31.5) -20.9 (431-452) 73-77 5.9-5.9 -4<br />

Conf only -0.4 (33.8-34.1) -33.0 (457-490) 74-79 6.2-6.2 2<br />

2013 All 2.8 (29.0-26.2) 4.5 (408-403) 71-76 5.7-5.3 12<br />

Conf only 9.8 (34.9-25.1) 58.1 (450-392) 71-77 6.3-5.1 8<br />

2012 All -1.4 (26.6-28.0) -48.1 (393-441) 68-72 5.8-6.1 10<br />

Conf only -1.0 (24.8-25.8) -56.7 (390-446) 66-74 5.9-6.0 10<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

99% 60% 62% 77% 78% 33% 41%<br />

In 2014 Middle Tennessee St went 6-6 and was returning their starting<br />

QB. HC Rick Stockstill decided to start a redshirt freshman instead and<br />

he threw for 1,400 more yards, 13 more TD’s and 3 fewer<br />

interceptions. Despite that QB being his son Brent any mentions of<br />

nepotism quickly faded.<br />

Brent is now an experienced sophomore and while the Blue Raiders<br />

must replace their “leading rusher” the next 2 are back. Two receivers<br />

topped 1,000 yards last season and while one departs 4 of the other<br />

top 6 are back giving them solid depth for the skill positions. Middle<br />

will need to replace both left side starters but two backups did make<br />

a <strong>com</strong>bined 8 starts last season (overall the OL has 72 career starts).<br />

The defense returns 3 of their 4 starting DL and both CB’s. The flip side<br />

is they lose all 3 LB’s and both safeties who happen to be 5 of their top<br />

6 tacklers from last season including 3 rd -round draft choice Kevin<br />

Byard who had a school-record 19 career interceptions.<br />

The schedule includes only 5 home games and they play 4 road games<br />

in a 5 week stretch in late October through mid-November.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Alabama A&M<br />

9/10 Sat at Vanderbilt<br />

9/17 Sat at Bowling Green<br />

9/24 Sat La Tech<br />

10/1 Sat at North Texas<br />

10/15 Sat WKU<br />

10/22 Sat at Missouri<br />

10/29 Sat at FIU<br />

11/5 Sat UTSA<br />

11/12 Sat at Marshall<br />

11/19 Sat at Charlotte<br />

11/26 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

open<br />

Middle Tenn St is 8-3 to the<br />

UNDER as an away dog the L3Y<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-4 8-5 6-6 7-6<br />

Home 3-2 5-1 5-1 5-1<br />

Away 5-2 3-3 1-5 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 6-4 5-7 6-6 8-5<br />

HF 2-1 2-2 3-2 4-2<br />

HD 0-1 2-0 0-1 0-0<br />

AF 2-0 1-2 0-1 2-0<br />

AD 2-2 0-2 3-2 2-2<br />

vs Conf 4-2 5-3 4-4 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-2 0-4 2-2 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 2-2 3-2 2-3<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 2-1 3-2 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 3-4 2-4 5-2<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 3-4 2-4 5-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-5 5-8 7-4 4-8<br />

as HF 1-1 2-2 4-1 2-3<br />

as HD 0-1 1-1 0-1 0-0<br />

as AF 2-1 2-1 1-0 0-2<br />

as AD 2-2 0-3 2-2 1-3<br />

vs Conf 3-4 4-4 5-2 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-1 1-4 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 2-0 1-3 3-1 3-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-0 1-2 3-1 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 3-5 3-5 3-3 1-6<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-5 3-5 3-3 1-6


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 1-11, 1-7 (#6 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #119 - #121<br />

SOS: #90 Adjusted Off – Def: #126 - #123<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #6 - #95<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #125 (46.0)<br />

North Texas<br />

The Mean Green in ’16<br />

HC here: Seth Littrell – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-5.1, DEF-7.2<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #114<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

15.0% 9.6% 42.7% 32.7%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Mean Green are 2-12 ATS away Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a dog (s’/ 9/23/95) <strong>2016</strong> 2 (-110)<br />

2015 5 (-120) 1-11 und<br />

2014 5.5 (-300) 4-8 und<br />

2013 5.5 (+170) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 5 (n/a) 4-8 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -26.1 (15.2-41.2) -182.5 (320-503) 70-75 4.6-6.7 -7<br />

Conf only -20.8 (18.2-39.0) -146.5 (356-503) 70-77 5.1-6.5 -5<br />

2014 All -2.7 (27.2-29.8) -43.0 (326-369) 67-67 4.9-5.5 0<br />

Conf only -10.9 (21.9-32.8) -46.4 (325-371) 69-66 4.7-5.6 -4<br />

2013 All 14.1 (31.8-17.8) 62.2 (410-348) 73-68 5.6-5.1 11<br />

Conf only 18.8 (32.8-14.0) 122.6 (412-290) 72-67 5.8-4.3 5<br />

2012 All -6.9 (20.9-27.8) -22.6 (392-415) 71-68 5.5-6.1 1<br />

Conf only -5.8 (20.1-25.9) -16.8 (394-411) 71-69 5.5-6.0 0<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

0% 58% 28% 47% 56% 57% 81%<br />

A case could be made that North Texas was the worst team in the<br />

country last year getting outscored by 26 ppg and also lost to FCS<br />

Portland St by 59. The Mean Green were also outscored 122-9 in the<br />

first quarter (did not score a TD). This year new head coach Seth Littrell<br />

takes over. He’ll run a Texas Tech-style of offense here, which suits the<br />

Texas recruiting area.<br />

While a pair of QB’s split time and the most productive is back it looks<br />

as if though they will go with Alabama transfer Alec Morris. The<br />

backfield is set with their top RB back but the receiving unit loses 4 of<br />

their top 5. Three OL starters will lead the way with a 35 game starter<br />

back at center.<br />

The defense has to replace their top LB and top CB but everyone else<br />

returns. They will be going to a 3-3-5 with a new DC, add in 3 JUCO’s<br />

as well as a Kansas St transfer and all will be battling for a starting job.<br />

The schedule is not kind as they pull the 3 best teams from CUSA East<br />

(MT, Marshall and WKU) and all their winnable games (Rice, UTSA<br />

and UTEP) are on the road. They may be favored in only 1 game.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat SMU<br />

9/10 Sat Beth-Cookman<br />

9/17 Sat at Florida<br />

9/24 Sat at Rice<br />

10/1 Sat Middle Tenn<br />

10/8 Sat Marshall<br />

10/22 Sat at Army<br />

10/29 Sat at UTSA<br />

11/5 Sat La Tech<br />

11/12 Sat at WKU<br />

11/19 Sat Southern Miss<br />

11/26 Sat at UTEP<br />

open<br />

North Texas is 8-0 ATS as a FAV<br />

after a game as a AF (s’/ 11/1/03)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 4-8 9-4 4-8 1-11<br />

Home 3-2 5-1 4-2 1-4<br />

Away 1-6 3-3 0-6 0-7<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 5-6 10-3 4-8 4-8<br />

HF 1-1 4-1 3-2 0-1<br />

HD 1-2 1-0 1-0 2-2<br />

AF 0-0 3-1 0-0 0-0<br />

AD 3-3 1-1 0-6 2-5<br />

vs Conf 3-4 6-2 2-6 3-5<br />

Non Conf 2-2 4-1 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 3-3 3-1 4-3 4-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-3 0-1 4-3 4-6<br />

Off SU Win 1-3 6-2 0-4 0-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 1-3 6-2 0-4 0-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 5-6 3-9 7-5 5-7<br />

as HF 0-1 0-5 3-2 0-1<br />

as HD 0-3 0-0 0-1 3-1<br />

as AF 0-1 2-2 0-0 0-0<br />

as AD 5-1 1-1 4-2 2-5<br />

vs Conf 2-6 2-6 4-4 3-5<br />

vs Non Conf 3-0 1-3 3-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 0-6 1-2 4-3 4-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-5 0-1 4-3 4-6<br />

Off SU Win 4-0 2-6 3-1 1-0<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-0 2-6 3-1 1-0


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 3-5 (T #4-#6 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #91 - #98<br />

SOS: #127 Adjusted Off – Def: #109 - #116<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #8 - #101<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #103 (53.2)<br />

Old Dominion<br />

The Monarchs in ’16<br />

HC here: Bobby Wilder – 8 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.2*, DEF-8.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #7 - #104<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

24.2% 17.8% 31.8% 26.1%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Monarchs are 7-3 ATS<br />

Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

to the OVER playing in<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 5 (+100)<br />

November<br />

2015 4.5 (-145) 5-7 OV<br />

2014 5.5 (+220) 6-6 OV<br />

2013 FCS - -<br />

2012 FCS - -<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -11.5 (24.2-35.8) -65.7 (371-437) 70-77 5.3-5.7 -1<br />

Conf only -10.4 (26.9-37.2) -42.2 (407-450) 73-79 5.6-5.7 -1<br />

2014 All -5.3 (32.7-38) -10.3 (442-452) 69-74 6.4-6.1 -1<br />

Conf only -8.1 (34-42.1) -18.6 (453-472) 68-74 6.7-6.4 -3<br />

2013 All 8.3 (42.3-34) 66.8 (519-452) 77-72 6.8-6.3 4<br />

- - - - - -<br />

- - - - - -<br />

- - - - - -<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Hampton<br />

9/10 Sat at Appalachian St<br />

9/17 Sat at NC St<br />

9/24 Sat UTSA<br />

10/1 Sat at Charlotte<br />

10/8 Sat UMass<br />

10/22 Sat at WKU<br />

10/29 Sat at UTEP<br />

11/5 Sat Marshall<br />

11/12 Sat Southern Miss<br />

11/19 Sat at Fla Atlantic<br />

11/26 Sat FIU<br />

open<br />

In Old Dominion first 2 seasons<br />

in CUSA they went 1-7 ATS<br />

versus non-conference foes<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

100% 100% 92% 52% 84% 70% 71%<br />

The Monarchs have admirably just missed out on a bowl in each of<br />

their first two seasons playing at the FBS level. This year’s team thanks<br />

to the return of 17 starters is the deepest and most talented head<br />

coach Bobby Wilder has fielded in his 8 years.<br />

Trying to replace a QB that is on an NFL roster is tough especially for a<br />

freshman and after struggling, the Monarchs brought in a receiver and<br />

they split time. Both are back as are basically the entire running back<br />

and receiving corps. The only lost starters are on the OL where they<br />

lose a pair of 2-year starters and while 5 are back with starting<br />

experience, none started more than 9 games last year.<br />

ODU loses one starter from each of the defensive units. The DL returns<br />

11 of their top 12 and should be the strength of the defense while the<br />

LB corps returns their top tackler. In the defensive backfield, they have<br />

to replace the unit’s top tackler.<br />

The Monarchs do have to play on the road at Appalachian St and NC<br />

State in non-conference action and also pull Southern Miss from the<br />

West. They still could be favored in as many as 6 games.<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 11-2 8-4 6-6 5-7<br />

Home 6-2 6-0 4-2 3-4<br />

Away 5-0 2-4 2-4 2-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 0-0 3-2 4-8 3-9<br />

HF 0-0 0-0 0-4 1-2<br />

HD 0-0 0-0 1-1 1-3<br />

AF 0-0 1-0 0-0 0-1<br />

AD 0-0 2-2 3-3 1-3<br />

vs Conf 0-0 0-0 3-5 3-5<br />

Non Conf 0-0 3-2 1-3 0-4<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 2-1 0-6 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 2-1 0-5 2-4<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 0-1 4-1 1-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 0-1 4-1 1-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 0-0 3-2 6-5 6-5<br />

as HF 0-0 0-0 1-2 1-2<br />

as HD 0-0 0-0 0-2 2-2<br />

as AF 0-0 1-0 0-0 1-0<br />

as AD 0-0 2-2 5-1 2-1<br />

vs Conf 0-0 0-0 4-3 5-2<br />

vs Non Conf 0-0 3-2 2-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 0-0 1-2 4-2 4-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 0-0 1-2 3-2 4-2<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 1-0 2-2 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 1-0 2-2 1-3


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 3-5 (T #3-#4 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6*, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #62 - #104<br />

SOS: #124 Adjusted Off – Def: #79 - #127<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #10 - #107<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #99 (54.2)<br />

Rice<br />

The Owls in ’16<br />

HC here: David Bailiff – 10 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.4, DEF-8.1<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #128<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

19.0% 24.7% 27.8% 28.5%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Owls are 7-0-1 ATS as a HD Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

after a win as a HD (S’/ 10/4/80) <strong>2016</strong> 6 (+100)<br />

2015 7.5 (-115) 5-7 und<br />

2014 6.5 (+100) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 7.5 (-190) 9-3 OV<br />

2012 3.5 (n/a) 6-6 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -9.8 (26.1-35.8) -45.6 (402-447) 76-63 5.3-7.1 -12<br />

Conf only -12.1 (21.8-33.9) -59.8 (392-452) 76-64 5.2-7.1 -6<br />

2014 All 0.3 (28.8-28.5) 13.3 (399-386) 71-67 5.6-5.7 8<br />

Conf only 0.6 (31.0-30.4) -1.3 (387-388) 71-66 5.4-5.9 6<br />

2013 All 5.2 (29.6-24.4) 41.5 (406-364) 75-68 5.4-5.3 7<br />

Conf only 11.2 (31.4-20.2) 76.6 (408-332) 74-69 5.5-4.8 7<br />

2012 All 1.8 (31.8-30.0) 3.6 (427-424) 79-68 5.4-6.2 5<br />

Conf only 3.5 (32.6-29.1) -19.7 (417-436) 77-71 5.4-6.2 7<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

12% 88% 74% 65% 86% 90% 76%<br />

After one of the best 3-year stretches in school history, Rice fell to 5-<br />

7 a year ago missing out on a bowl. The Owls used 31 redshirt or true<br />

freshman last year, the most of any team in the FBS and look to be in<br />

better shape heading into <strong>2016</strong>.<br />

The Owls are looking for a new QB and after spring the decision has<br />

yet to be made. Four RB’s had 70+ attempts and all return making the<br />

backfield deep. The Owls have to replace their #2 receiver but they are<br />

loaded with experienced part-time players to fill the gap. The OL<br />

returns 3 starters but have to replace a 3-year starter which was 1 st<br />

team all-conference as well as a 4-year starting RT.<br />

Rice can say they were the #1 team in the FBS last year but<br />

unfortunately the category is yards per play allowed (7.13) with no<br />

team higher since 2013. With those numbers many players saw action<br />

and their top 7 tacklers return in what should be one of the most<br />

improved defenses in the country.<br />

The Owls should be favored in as many as 6 games, however they play<br />

4 road games against teams that won at least 9 games last year.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/1 Thu at WKU<br />

9/10 Sat at Army<br />

9/16 Fri Baylor<br />

9/24 Sat North Texas<br />

10/1 Sat at Southern Miss<br />

10/15 Sat UTSA<br />

10/22 Sat PV A&M<br />

10/29 Sat at La Tech<br />

11/5 Sat Fla Atlantic<br />

11/12 Sat at Charlotte<br />

11/19 Sat UTEP<br />

11/26 Sat at Stanford<br />

open<br />

Rice is 15-4 ATS as a HF off a<br />

road loss (s’/ Nov 4, 2000)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 7-6 10-4 8-5 5-7<br />

Home 3-2 6-0 4-1 3-3<br />

Away 3-3 4-2 3-4 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 8-4 8-6 8-4 5-7<br />

HF 2-0 3-2 3-1 2-1<br />

HD 1-1 1-0 0-0 0-3<br />

AF 0-2 2-1 3-0 1-1<br />

AD 4-0 2-1 1-3 2-2<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-4 4-3 3-5<br />

Non Conf 3-1 3-2 4-1 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 3-2 2-1 4-1 3-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-1 2-0 3-1 3-3<br />

Off SU Win 5-1 5-5 4-2 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 5-1 5-5 4-2 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-7 6-7 6-7 5-5<br />

as HF 1-1 1-4 2-3 1-1<br />

as HD 2-1 1-0 0-0 1-2<br />

as AF 1-1 2-1 2-1 1-1<br />

as AD 2-2 2-1 2-2 2-1<br />

vs Conf 4-5 4-5 4-4 2-5<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 2-2 2-3 3-0<br />

Off SU Loss 2-4 1-2 2-3 2-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-2 1-1 1-3 1-4<br />

Off SU Win 3-3 4-5 3-4 3-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-3 4-5 3-4 3-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 9-5, 7-1 (#1 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-10*, DEF-5<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #12 - 51<br />

SOS: #107 Adjusted Off – Def: #38 - #68<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #87<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #59 (70.9)<br />

Southern Miss<br />

The Golden Eagles in ’16<br />

HC here: Jay Hopson – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.4*, DEF-6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #4 - #96<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

4.6% 17.0% 34.6% 43.8%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Eagles are 18-5-1 ATS on Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the road off a win (s’/10/21/07) <strong>2016</strong> 8 (-110)<br />

2015 4.5 (+115) 9-3 OV<br />

2014 3.5 (-180) 3-9 und<br />

2013 5.5 (-130) 1-11 und<br />

2012 7.5 (n/a) 0-12 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 14.4 (39.9-25.6) 130.0 (510-380) 74-71 6.9-5.3 -1<br />

Conf only 20.9 (41.8-20.9) 206.6 (529-322) 75-70 7.0-4.6 -2<br />

2014 All -16.4 (19.0-35.4) -86.4 (365-451) 72-70 5.1-6.4 -10<br />

Conf only -14.4 (21.1-35.5) -47.8 (386-434) 74-69 5.2-6.3 -15<br />

2013 All -24.8 (17.1-41.9) -120.0 (316-436) 68-74 4.6-5.9 -19<br />

Conf only -21.8 (20.9-42.6) -135.7 (323-459) 69-76 4.7-6.0 -8<br />

2012 All -18.2 (19.7-37.8) -101.6 (323-424) 66-70 4.9-6.1 -16<br />

Conf only -16.8 (21.0-37.8) -80.6 (335-415) 67-70 5-5.9 -12<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

98% 43% 43% 60% 64% 38% 85%<br />

What a 5-year cycle for the Golden Eagles. In 2011, they win CUSA and<br />

go 12-2. After HC Larry Fedora’s departure, they go 0-12 the following<br />

season. Todd Monken raised his team’s record all 3 seasons from 1-11<br />

to 3-9 and then 9-5 last season but late in January, he left for an NFL<br />

OC job and new head coach Jay Hopson <strong>com</strong>es from Alcorn St (32-17).<br />

The offense is in fine shape as they return their QB, one of their two<br />

1,000 yard rushers and while they loss their top 2 WR’s they return all<br />

remaining 8 receivers that made catches. It’s always a positive when<br />

you return a 1 st team all-conference center and will be joined by both<br />

guards (94 career starts).<br />

The DL loses both DT’s but both backups had considerably playing time<br />

last year. They return only one LB but need to replace their MLB who<br />

was their defensive leader. In the secondary despite losing their best<br />

CB they return the other 11 DB’s which saw action.<br />

While the Golden Eagles play a pair of SEC teams on the road, they<br />

could be favored in their other 10 games as they get key conference<br />

games vs Marshall and Louisiana Tech at home.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat at Kentucky<br />

9/10 Sat Savannah St<br />

9/17 Sat Troy<br />

9/24 Sat at UTEP<br />

10/1 Sat Rice<br />

10/8 Sat at UTSA<br />

10/15 Sat at LSU<br />

10/29 Sat Marshall<br />

11/5 Sat Charlotte<br />

11/12 Sat at Old Dominion<br />

11/19 Sat at North Texas<br />

11/25 Fri La Tech<br />

open<br />

So Miss is 12-2-1 ATS as a dog<br />

after a win as a fav (s’/12/22/07)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 0-12 1-11 3-9 9-5<br />

Home 0-6 0-5 2-4 5-1<br />

Away 0-6 1-6 1-5 4-2<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 3-9 3-9 5-7 10-4<br />

HF 0-3 0-2 0-1 4-1<br />

HD 2-1 1-2 0-4 1-0<br />

AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 2-0<br />

AD 1-5 2-5 4-2 3-1<br />

vs Conf 2-6 2-6 3-5 6-3<br />

Non Conf 1-3 1-3 2-2 4-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-8 3-8 4-4 3-1<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-4 3-6 3-3 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 0-0 1-2 6-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 1-2 6-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 8-4 7-5 5-7 6-8<br />

as HF 1-2 0-2 0-1 2-3<br />

as HD 2-1 2-1 3-1 0-1<br />

as AF 0-0 0-0 0-0 1-1<br />

as AD 5-1 5-2 2-4 2-2<br />

vs Conf 5-3 5-3 4-4 3-6<br />

vs Non Conf 3-1 2-2 1-3 3-2<br />

Off SU Loss 7-4 7-4 3-5 2-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 4-3 5-4 2-4 2-1<br />

Off SU Win 0-0 0-0 2-1 4-5<br />

Win by 10+ pts 0-0 0-0 2-1 4-5


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 5-7, 3-5 (T #3-#5 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6, DEF-4<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #107 - #95<br />

SOS: #128 Adjusted Off – Def: #120 - #109<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #13 - #129<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #98 (54.8)<br />

UTEP<br />

The Miners in ’16<br />

HC here: Sean Kugler – 4 th<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-8.1*, DEF-5.9<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #12 - #119<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

11.0% 22.7% 27.3% 39.0%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

The Miners are 1-12 ATS as an Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

AD after a loss (S’/ 11/25/11) <strong>2016</strong> 5 (-110)<br />

2015 6 (-120) 5-7 und<br />

2014 2.5 (-180) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 4.5 (+120) 2-10 und<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 3-9 und<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -12.2 (20.7-32.9) -86.5 (341-428) 69-63 4.9-6.8 -11<br />

Conf only -9.5 (17.2-26.8) -53.6 (323-377) 71-62 4.6-6.1 -8<br />

2014 All -1.5 (26.6-28.1) -17.8 (351-369) 66-59 5.3-6.3 9<br />

Conf only 0.6 (26.6-26.0) 17.1 (341-323) 64-59 5.3-5.5 2<br />

2013 All -17.6 (21.8-39.3) -120.4 (348-468) 69-63 5.1-7.4 -6<br />

Conf only -19.8 (16.9-36.6) -131.5 (317-448) 66-66 4.8-6.8 -6<br />

2012 All -8.6 (21.2-29.8) -68.0 (373-441) 69-72 5.4-6.1 -4<br />

Conf only -8.8 (21.2-30.0) -51.9 (385-437) 69-73 5.6-6.0 -8<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

48% 62% 83% 80% 51% 71% 58%<br />

After notching a bowl bid in 2014, last year’s UTEP team was<br />

decimated by injuries to several key players and fell back to 5-7. This<br />

year’s team should be in better shape but they are changing up<br />

schemes with two new coordinators.<br />

The injury bug already hit UTEP as their returning starter at QB is out<br />

for the year but they have a Fresno St graduate transfer joining this<br />

summer. They lose their top 2 RB’s, but they only had 657 <strong>com</strong>bined<br />

yards and if Aaron Jones (injured last year) returns to his 2014 form<br />

(1321 yards), this unit is better. The Miners return their top 5 receivers<br />

and the OL loses only one starter (87 career starts).<br />

The defense loses its top DL, 2 LB’s and a pair of DB’s. The Miners do<br />

return their top player in LB Alvin Jones but that is also the position<br />

which lacks the most depth. Because of injuries, 3 freshman played in<br />

the secondary most of last season.<br />

The schedule is favorable as they have 3 winnable non-conference<br />

games and they avoid Marshall, Middle Tennessee and WKU from<br />

CUSA East. The Miners could be favored in 6-7 games this year.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat New Mexico St<br />

9/10 Sat at Texas<br />

9/17 Sat Army<br />

9/24 Sat Southern Miss<br />

10/1 Sat at La Tech<br />

10/8 Sat FIU<br />

10/22 Sat at UTSA<br />

10/29 Sat Old Dominion<br />

11/5 Sat Hou Baptist<br />

11/12 Sat at Fla Atlantic<br />

11/19 Sat at Rice<br />

11/26 Sat North Texas<br />

open<br />

UTEP is 10-1 ATS home after a<br />

win as an AD (s’/ Oct 17, 1998)<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 3-9 2-10 7-6 5-7<br />

Home 2-4 1-4 5-1 3-2<br />

Away 1-5 1-6 2-4 2-5<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 4-7 2-10 7-5 6-6<br />

HF 0-3 1-1 4-1 0-1<br />

HD 2-0 0-3 1-0 3-1<br />

AF 0-1 1-0 0-0 1-0<br />

AD 2-3 0-6 2-3 2-4<br />

vs Conf 2-6 1-7 4-3 5-3<br />

Non Conf 2-1 1-3 3-2 1-3<br />

Off SU Loss 1-6 2-7 3-2 5-2<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 1-5 1-6 1-2 4-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-1 0-2 3-3 1-3<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-1 0-2 3-3 1-3<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-6 5-6 3-9 4-8<br />

as HF 2-2 1-1 2-3 0-1<br />

as HD 1-1 1-2 0-1 0-4<br />

as AF 1-0 1-0 0-0 1-0<br />

as AD 2-3 2-3 1-4 3-3<br />

vs Conf 4-4 2-5 1-6 1-7<br />

vs Non Conf 2-2 3-1 2-3 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-5 4-5 2-2 3-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-5 3-4 1-1 3-3<br />

Off SU Win 3-0 0-1 1-6 0-4<br />

Win by 10+ pts 3-0 0-1 1-6 0-4


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 3-9, 3-5 (T #3-#5 CUSA West)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-2, DEF-3<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #98 - #102<br />

SOS: #108 Adjusted Off – Def: #115 - #100<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #103<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #119 (48.8)<br />

UTSA<br />

The Roadrunners in ’16<br />

HC here: Frank Wilson – 1 st<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-6.2*, DEF-5.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #9 - #112<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

3.9% 36.8% 14.0% 45.3%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

Over the last two seasons Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

the Roadrunners are only<br />

<strong>2016</strong> 4 (-110)<br />

2015 2.5 (-170) 3-9 OV<br />

3-12 ATS off a loss<br />

2014 6.5 (-300) 4-8 und<br />

2013 2.5 (+115) 7-5 OV<br />

2012 4 (n/a) 4-8 push<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All -11.2 (22.6-33.8) -81.8 (362-444) 73-74 5.0-6.0 -1<br />

Conf only -5.0 (23.9-28.9) -91.5 (352-443) 73-76 4.9-5.8 7<br />

2014 All -8.8 (17.1-25.9) -72.2 (298-370) 66-71 4.5-5.2 -3<br />

Conf only -10.1 (16.6-26.8) -64.5 (301-366) 66-70 4.6-5.3 -4<br />

2013 All -0.8 (25.6-26.3) 41.5 (418-376) 70-70 6.0-5.4 -7<br />

Conf only 7.5 (26.2-18.8) 65.4 (406-340) 67-71 6.1-4.8 2<br />

2012 All 2.4 (31.2-28.8) 10.5 (390-380) 67-67 5.9-5.7 14<br />

Conf only -8.0 (29.2-37.2) -29.0 (412-441) 69-72 5.9-6.1 2<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

60% 94% 58% 58% 55% 56% 51%<br />

After going 8-4 in their first season of FBS play, UTSA saw their record<br />

slip in each of the next 3 years which led to the retirement of Larry<br />

Coker. New head coach Frank Wilson has spent the last 6 years as a<br />

recruiting coordinator and running backs coach at LSU. He has been<br />

named the national recruiter of the year by several different sources<br />

and should be right at home in the talent rich state of Texas.<br />

UTSA’s starting QB changed after 5 games last year because of an<br />

injury and the returnee has 7 games of starting experience. The RB<br />

unit returns intact and while they lose a starting receiver and TE they<br />

reloaded with JUCO’s and transfers. The OL returns three starters but<br />

(40 career starts).<br />

The Roadrunners lose a couple of DL, a LB and 3 from the secondary<br />

and will look to new<strong>com</strong>ers for help. It was a very young defense for<br />

most of the season and 3 JUCO’s plus an LSU graduate transfer will<br />

help fill the holes.<br />

The home schedule is favorable as they could be favored in 4 of them<br />

but the road schedule could see them as an underdog in all 6.<br />

Schedule with SouthPoint June Line<br />

Date Day Opponent<br />

9/3 Sat Alabama St<br />

9/10 Sat at Colorado St<br />

9/16 Fri Arizona St<br />

9/24 Sat at Old Dominion<br />

10/8 Sat Southern Miss<br />

10/15 Sat at Rice<br />

10/22 Sat UTEP<br />

10/29 Sat North Texas<br />

11/5 Sat at Middle Tenn<br />

11/12 Sat at La Tech<br />

11/19 Sat at Texas A&M<br />

11/26 Sat Charlotte<br />

open<br />

Of the 89 players on UTSA’s<br />

spring roster 70 are from Texas<br />

incl all 12 returning starters<br />

Logs Courtesy of SportsDatabase.<strong>com</strong><br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

SU 8-4 7-5 4-8 3-9<br />

Home 4-2 3-3 3-3 1-5<br />

Away 4-2 4-2 1-5 2-4<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

ATS 7-3 7-4 4-7 5-7<br />

HF 0-0 2-1 1-4 1-1<br />

HD 1-2 1-1 1-0 2-2<br />

AF 2-0 1-0 0-1 1-2<br />

AD 2-1 3-1 2-2 1-2<br />

vs Conf 0-1 5-3 2-5 3-5<br />

Non Conf 7-2 2-1 2-2 2-2<br />

Off SU Loss 2-2 2-2 1-6 2-6<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 2-2 1-2 1-3 1-3<br />

Off SU Win 4-1 4-2 2-1 2-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 4-1 4-2 2-1 2-1<br />

2012 2013 2014 2015<br />

Over/Under 6-2 3-9 4-8 6-5<br />

as HF 0-0 1-2 1-4 1-0<br />

as HD 3-0 1-1 0-1 2-2<br />

as AF 1-0 0-1 1-0 1-2<br />

as AD 2-1 0-5 2-3 2-1<br />

vs Conf 0-1 1-7 3-5 3-4<br />

vs Non Conf 6-1 2-2 1-3 3-1<br />

Off SU Loss 3-0 1-4 3-5 4-4<br />

Loss by 10+ pts 3-0 0-4 2-3 2-2<br />

Off SU Win 2-2 2-4 1-2 1-1<br />

Win by 10+ pts 2-2 2-4 1-2 1-1


A Look Back…<br />

2015 : 12-2, 8-0 (#1 CUSA East)<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7*, DEF-9<br />

NCAA Rank Off - Def: #9 - #73<br />

SOS: #91 Adjusted Off – Def: #4 - #72<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #11 - #113<br />

Final Rank (Power rating): #34 (77.4)<br />

WKU<br />

The Hilltoppers in ’16<br />

HC here: Jeff Brohm – 3 rd<br />

Ret Starters: OFF-7.2, DEF-4.6<br />

Recruiting: Conf – Ov: #5 - #97<br />

Fr. So. ‘15 starts by class: Jr. Sr.<br />

5.5% 16.0% 31.6% 46.9%<br />

LAS VEGAS WIN TOTALS<br />

In CUSA’s 20 seasons WKU LY Season Win's (odds) Record result<br />

was the first to go undefeated <strong>2016</strong> 8.5 (+110)<br />

2015 7.5 (-130) 10-2 OV<br />

and win the conference title.<br />

2014 5.5 (+220) 7-5 OV<br />

2013 6.5 (-195) 8-4 OV<br />

2012 6 (n/a) 7-5 OV<br />

PPG (tm-opp) YPG (tm-opp) Plays Yds/ply TO's<br />

2015 All 18.4 (44.3-25.9) 121.1 (526-405) 73-71 7.2-5.7 14<br />

Conf only 26.0 (50.0-24.0) 186.9 (550-363) 73-69 7.5-5.2 12<br />

2014 All 4.5 (44.4-39.9) 24.7 (535-510) 76-77 7.1-6.7 5<br />

Conf only 0.0 (43.4-43.4) -19.2 (510-530) 73-80 7.0-6.7 5<br />

2013 All 6.2 (30.8-24.6) 119.3 (459-339) 73-64 6.3-5.3 -10<br />

Conf only 5.9 (31.0-25.1) 120.0 (469-349) 75-67 6.3-5.2 -2<br />

2012 All 2.7 (28.2-25.5) 35.1 (383-348) 65-65 5.9-5.3 -1<br />

Conf only 1.0 (27.8-26.8) -7.7 (369-377) 65-69 5.7-5.5 1<br />

Percentage of stats back for <strong>2016</strong> (OL starts, Def Tackles)<br />

Pass Rush Rec OL DL LB’s DB’s<br />

3% 93% 57% 100% 51% 53% 74%<br />

While Houston was the consensus top Group of 5 team last season,<br />

WKU was not far behind. The Cougars went 13-1 versus the #92<br />

schedule with an average score of 40-21 (+101 yards per game). The<br />

Hilltoppers went 12-2 versus the #91 schedule with an average score<br />

of 44-26 (+121 yards per game). Plus, WKU only played 6 home games<br />

<strong>com</strong>pared to Houston’s 8 home games.<br />

On offense, they lose all-everything QB Brandon Doughty (5,055 yards,<br />

48-9 ratio). The top 2 RB’s return and they get 2014 starter Leon Allen<br />

back from injury They also return their top 2 WR’s but do have to<br />

replace TE Tyler Higbee (4 th -round draft choice). They OL brings back<br />