Create successful ePaper yourself
Turn your PDF publications into a flip-book with our unique Google optimized e-Paper software.
<strong>IRAQI</strong> <strong>KURDISTAN</strong> <strong>OIL</strong> <strong>AND</strong> <strong>GAS</strong> <strong>OUTLOOK</strong><br />
Introduction<br />
In current uncertain economic, political, and security<br />
conditions, diversification of Kurdish energy markets is<br />
essential. Turkey remains by far the best export route<br />
in terms of Kurdish, regional, and European energy<br />
security, but a deterioration of security conditions<br />
inside Turkey, and particularly in southeastern<br />
Turkey, means there must be a renewed focus on<br />
ensuring the smooth development of both oil and<br />
gas exports via Turkey. This, in turn, means a focus<br />
on the resumption of talks between the Turkish<br />
government and Turkey’s own Kurdish communities.<br />
With the Turkish government focused on a purge<br />
of supposedly Gülenist elements in Turkish society<br />
following the abortive military coup of July 15-16, 2016,<br />
it is hard to assess whether Ankara currently has either<br />
the capacity to prosecute its war with the Turkish<br />
Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in the manner that<br />
characterized the previous twelve months, or whether<br />
it has any inclination to resume the peace process<br />
with the rebel Kurdish fighters of the PKK that came<br />
to such an abrupt end in July 2015.<br />
It also means that the KRG needs to assess all other<br />
options. The primary focus—even in the event of a<br />
Kurdish declaration of independence—should be<br />
on the restoration of working relations with federal<br />
Iraqi authorities so Kurdish energy resources can be<br />
supplied to other Iraqi regions, both directly in the<br />
form of gas supplies and indirectly as generated power.<br />
Under current political circumstances, this constitutes<br />
a quid pro quo for the resumption of a consistent flow<br />
of federal Iraqi revenues to Erbil; with independence,<br />
it constitutes a key element in ensuring diversity of<br />
export options.<br />
The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) is currently<br />
exploring the possibility of oil and gas exports via Iran.<br />
Such exports could prove useful, indeed vital, in the<br />
event of a breakdown in security conditions in Turkey<br />
and adjacent regions of Iraq. However, they will need<br />
to be assessed in an extremely delicate political and<br />
energy security context.<br />
2 ATLANTIC COUNCIL
Change language