Cattle-ranching-intensification-as-a-key-role-on-sustainable-agriculture-expansion-in-Brazil_Agroicone_INPUT

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CATTLE RANCHING Long term vision for cattle <strong>ranching</strong> in Brazil: impacts of Forest Code implementation and deforestation reduction Long term and large scale implementation of the Forest Code incre<strong>as</strong>es the pressure on land use in Brazil, especially on beef cattle production. Three scenarios for 2035 were estimated using the Brazilian Land Use Model - BLUM 1 : scenario without production area restrictions – B<strong>as</strong>eline Scenario; scenario with elimination of deforestation from 2020 – Scenario DZ; and scenario with implementation of the Forest Code combined with the elimination of deforestation from 2020 – Scenario CF (TABLE 1). In this l<strong>as</strong>t scenario, the possibility of a Legal Reserve compensation market w<strong>as</strong> considered (through environmental serfdom in are<strong>as</strong> with remaining native vegetation), <strong>as</strong> proposed in the Forest Code. In the b<strong>as</strong>eline scenario (TABLE 1), an incre<strong>as</strong>e of 6.8 million hectares in the area allocated for agriculture w<strong>as</strong> estimated in 2035 relative to 2010, considering continuous TABLE 1. LAND USE RESULTS IN BRAZIL FOR SCENARIOS SIMULATED IN THE BRAZILIAN LAND USE MODEL - BLUM Area in thousand ha/ B<strong>as</strong>eline Difference Productivity in kg/ha Production DZ - B<strong>as</strong>eline CF - B<strong>as</strong>eline 2010 2025 2035 (thousand tons) 2025 2035 2025 2035 Summer crop are<strong>as</strong> a 46,444 61,104 66,896 -204 -291 -1,557 -2,114 P<strong>as</strong>ture are<strong>as</strong> 182,661 168,552 164,244 -271 -2,147 -5,521 -11,034 Land use (total area) b 235,855 240,281 242,716 -475 -2,438 -7,078 -13,148 Beef production (thousand tons) 9,365 12,111 13,506 -226 -3 -134 -286 Production of meat per hectare (kg/ha) 51.27 70.41 81.23 -1.23 1.07 1.61 4.06 Production of grains* (thousand tons) 148,892 261,130 322,363 -178 -364 -1,503 -2,778 Source: Agroicone/results of the study. Notes: a) Summer crops (or 1 st harvest crops) considered: rice, beans (summer area), corn (summer area), soybeans, cotton and sugarcane; b) Land use is the sum of are<strong>as</strong> of 1 st harvest crops, commercial forests and p<strong>as</strong>tures; c) Winter crops (or 2 nd harvest) considered: beans (winter area), corn (second harvest), wheat and barley. 1. The methodological description of BLUM can be found in ICONE (2014). The scenario simulations with BLUM were carried out in June of 2015 and revised in April of 2016. https: /goo.gl/F2ujjq decre<strong>as</strong>es in deforestation rates. <strong>Cattle</strong> <strong>ranching</strong> should reduce p<strong>as</strong>ture are<strong>as</strong> by 18.4 million hectares in the same period, being substituted by summer crops and planted forests and, thus, significantly reducing the need to incorporate new are<strong>as</strong> for production expansion. An important technological advance in cattle <strong>ranching</strong> might occur, reducing low productivity are<strong>as</strong> and incre<strong>as</strong>ing production per hectare by 58% in the same period. In the aggregate b<strong>as</strong>eline scenario, it is estimated that cattle <strong>ranching</strong> will require annual investments of US$ 5.7 billion in the next 25 years (from 2010 to 2035 in 2014 values; R$/ US$ 3.10) in order to incre<strong>as</strong>e productivity. In alternative scenarios, DZ and CF, the reduction of p<strong>as</strong>ture are<strong>as</strong> might be even higher, 2.1 million and 11 million hectares more, respectively, compared to the b<strong>as</strong>eline scenario in 2035. The economic dynamics explains this result: the low profitability of cattle <strong>ranching</strong> compared to crops’ returns, which crops expansion displaced p<strong>as</strong>turelands and Forest Code compliance also pushed p<strong>as</strong>ture and cattle <strong>ranching</strong> <strong>intensification</strong>, since land use expansion w<strong>as</strong> restricted. Beef production is estimated to reach 12 million tons in 2025 and 13.5 million tons in 2035, representing a 44% growth in 25 years. Similar results were found in alternative scenarios, with a small negative impact on beef production of up to 3% (in the c<strong>as</strong>e of the most restrictive scenario in terms of land use – CF), but with higher beef prices. The annual investment in alternative scenarios for the period between 2010 and 2035 should incre<strong>as</strong>e in up to US$ 387 million per year 10
CATTLE RANCHING in cattle <strong>ranching</strong> productivity improvements compared to the b<strong>as</strong>eline scenario (disregarding the losses of are<strong>as</strong> to other production activities). Emissions and mitigations related to agriculture, forests and land use TABLE 2 shows GHG emissions in the proposed scenarios according to the simulations projected by BLUM. Final remarks The results shown lead to the following conclusions and <strong>key</strong> messages: • <strong>Cattle</strong> <strong>ranching</strong> <strong>intensification</strong> is necessary in order to incre<strong>as</strong>e the competitiveness of the activity, <strong>as</strong> well <strong>as</strong> to reach the long term environmental targets. • The elimination of deforestation will only be possible if combined with cattle <strong>ranching</strong> <strong>intensification</strong>, incentive policies and private policies. In the b<strong>as</strong>eline scenario, emissions from agricultural sector incre<strong>as</strong>ed around 18% between 2010 and 2035. This growth is largely due to the incre<strong>as</strong>e in cattle herd throughout the period, considering available methodology that does not consider carbon balance of p<strong>as</strong>turelands (Biom<strong>as</strong>s and SOC – Soil Organic Carbon variations). The variations between the scenarios in the emissions from the land use and forest sectors are significant. In scenario DZ, the emissions avoided due to deforestation control can reach 42 million tCO 2 e/year, while in scenario CF, the restoration of native vegetation results in the absorption of approximately 80 million tCO 2 e/year. TABLE 2. GHG EMISSIONS FOR SIMULATED SCENARIOS WITH THE BRAZILIAN LAND USE MODEL – BLUM GHG Emissions B<strong>as</strong>eline DZ CF (million tCO 2 e) 1 2010 2025 2035 2025 2035 2025 2035 Agriculture 406 447 480 449 479 448 482 Land use and forests 274 97 43 79 35 31 14 AFOLU (Total) 680 544 523 528 514 479 496 • Monitoring/traceability of cattle are also important for socioenvironmental risk management in agricultural value chains. • It is necessary to develop a positive agenda for cattle <strong>ranching</strong>, which should be inclusive and transformative. The successful implementation of the Forest Code and the reduction of deforestation by the Brazilian agricultural sector will depend on specific public and private incentive policies. Command and control policies shall be gradually substituted by promoting the adoption of practices that combine agricultural production and environmental conservation. Thus, Brazil can take advantage of the opportunity to take forward important global challenges, expanding markets and consolidating sustainable economic development. Source: Agroicone/ Results of the study. B<strong>as</strong>ed on: MCTI (2010); Gouvello (2010); IPCC (2006); Harris et al (2009). Note: 1) The BLUM model captures approximately 90% of emissions from the “agriculture” and “land use and forest” sectors reported in the national emissions inventory. This difference occurs mainly because the model analyzes only large agricultural crops and beef, swine and poultry in the livestock sector. THE COMPLETE STUDY IS AVAILABLE AT: https: /goo.gl/uU8l0L 11
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Cattle-ranching-intensification-as-a-key-role-on-sustainable-agriculture-expansion-in-Brazil_Agroicone_INPUT

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