JR0234 - Strategic Assesment & Service Review

Project Reference: Service Review Team 

Strategic Assessment 

& Service Review 

Strategic Assessment for Mid and West Wales Fire Authority 

Author(s): 

Service Review Team - Helen Rees-Byrne 

Service Review Team - Eifion Rees 

Contributor(s): 

Service Review Team Members 

Professor Max Munday 

Version 1.0_Draft 

www.mawwfire.gov.uk

JR0234 

2 

Strategic Assessment for Mid and West Wales Fire Authority | Version 1.0_Draft

Contents 

1. Introduction to the Strategic Assessment 4 

1.1. Geography 4 

1.2. Population 5 

1.2.1. Growth of Population 6 

1.2.2. Long Term Population Growth across Wales 8 

1.2.3. Religion 9 

1.3. Housing 10 

1.4. Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 12 

1.5. Language 14 

1.6. Business and Employment 14 

2. Political 17 

2.1. National Assembly for Wales 17 

2.2. Welsh Government Legislative Programme 17 

2.3. Local Government Reform 17 

2.4. Devolution 18 

2.5. European Referendum 18 

2.6. Fire and Rescue National Framework 18 

2.7. Commissioned Reports 19 

2.7.1. Williams Report 19 

2.7.2. Knight Review 19 

2.7.3. Thomas Review 19 

2.7.4. Fire and Rescue Service Efficiency Review 19 

2.8. Homeland Security (Resilience) 20 

2.9. Collaboration 20 

2.10. Unfunded Pension Schemes 20 

3. Economic 21 

3.1. The Impact of Brexit 21 

3.2. Economic Drivers 21 

3.2.1. Interest Rates 21 

3.2.2. Employment Rate 22 

3.2.3. Unemployment Rate 22 

3.3. Spending Review 23 

3.3.1. UK Government Budget 2016 23 

3.3.2. Pension 23 

3.4. Apprenticeship Levy 23 

3.5. City Deal 23 

3.6. Swansea Tidal Lagoon 24 

Strategic Assessment for Mid and West Wales Fire Authority | Version 1.0_Draft 1

4. Social 25 

4.1. Health and Well-Being 25 

4.1.1. Ageing Population 25 

4.1.2. Mental Health Issues 25 

4.1.3. Alcohol and Drugs 25 

4.1.4. Smoking 26 

4.1.5. Obesity 26 

4.1.6. Living Alone 26 

4.2. Employment 27 

4.3. Welfare Reform 28 

4.4. Social Unrest 29 

4.4.1. Crime Rates: 29 

4.4.2. Fire Statistics 29 

5. Technology 30 

5.1. Information and Communications Technology 30 

5.2. Mobile Technology 30 

5.2.1. RFID 30 

5.2.2. Intelligent Alerting 31 

5.3. Digital Fire Ground 31 

5.4. ESMCP 32 

5.5. Learning Technology 32 

6. Legislative and Other Statutory Drivers 34 

6.1. Fire and Rescue Services National Framework 2016 (Wales) 34 

6.2. Policing and Crime Bill 2015-16 to 2016-17 34 

6.3. The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 35 

6.4. Well Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 35 

6.1. Wales Bill 2016-17 36 

6.2. Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 36 

6.3. Consultations 37 

6.3.1. Flooding and Water Rerscue 37 

7. Environment 38 

7.1. Climate Change 38 

7.1.1. Climate Change Mitigation 38 

7.1.2. Climate Change Adaptation 38 

7.2. Flooding 38 

7.3. Wildfires 38 

7.4. Recycling / Waste Management 39 

7.5. Planned Development 39 

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7.5.1. Swansea Local Development Plan 40 

7.5.2. Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan 40 

7.5.3. Carmarthenshire Local Development Plan 41 

7.5.4. Pembrokeshire Local Development Plan 41 

7.5.5. Powys Local Development Plan 42 

7.5.6. Ceredigion Local Development Plan 42 

7.6. Developments of National Significance (DNS) 42 

7.7. Nationally Significant infrastructure Projects 43 

8. Organisational 44 

8.1. CFOA 44 

8.1.1. National Operational Guidance 44 

8.2. Medical Response 44 

8.3. National Issues Committee/All Wales 45 

8.4. Public Service Boards 45 

9. Bibliography / Reference Data Sources 46 

Table of Figures 

Figure 1 - Population Density by Unitary Authority 5 

Figure 2 - Population by Unitary Authority 5 

Figure 3 - Projected Population Estimates 6 

Figure 4 - Population Projections by Unitary Authority 6 

Figure 5 - Population Aged 65 and Over by Unitary Authority 7 

Figure 6 - Population Projections by year (thousands) 8 

Figure 7 - Population Projection for Wales by Age Group (2015 to 2114) 8 

Figure 8- Population Projections by year (percent) 9 

Figure 9 - Religion of Mid and West Wales Residents (Census 2011) 9 

Figure 10 - Proportion of Dwellings by Council Tax Band 10 

Figure 11 - Households by Tenure 11 

Figure 12 - Percentage of One Person Households by Area 11 

Figure 13 - Most Deprived LSOAs by Unitary Authority 12 

Figure 14 - Areas of Deprivation in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and 

South East Carmarthenshire 13 

Figure 15 - Areas of Deprivation in Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire 14 

Figure 16 - Welsh Speakers by Local Authority 14 

Figure 17 - Businesses by Industry Sector and Change Over Time 14 

Figure 18 - Workplace Employment by Industry 15 

Figure 19 - Proportion of Jobs in Sector by Unitary Authority 16 


1. Introduction to the Strategic Assessment 

The Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service (MWWFRS) covers the Unitary Authority areas 

of Carmarthenshire, Ceredigion, Neath Port Talbot, Pembrokeshire, Powys and Swansea 

The Service covers an area of 4,500 square miles (11,700 km2), has 58 fire stations, and 1,200 

staff. The Service makes up almost two-thirds of the landmass of Wales. 

A variety of risks are found within the Service area, ranging from the petrochemical industries in 

Milford Haven to the risks associated with heavily populated areas such as Swansea and Neath 

Port Talbot. There is an extensive farming community and many other light industries throughout 

the area. These, together with an extensive coastline and inland waterways, are some of the 

specialised risks within the Service area. 

In 2016, MWWFRS commissioned a project to undertake an assessment of the macroeconomic 

factors, which have the potential to impact on the future strategic direction of the Service. The 

identification and analysis of these factors will help inform and plan an effective strategy to enable 

the Service to meet its future objectives. 

Changes in the macro environment have the potential to create significant opportunities for the 

Service but may also cause significant threats. The PESTELO analysis is a widely used tool 

that assists in analysing the Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal 

and Organisational changes in the business environment. To help make decisions and to plan 

for future events, MWWFRS needs to understand the wider macro-economic environments in 

which they operate. By understanding these environments, it is possible to take advantage of 

the opportunities and minimise the threats to the Service. Conducting a strategic analysis entails 

scanning these economic environments to detect and understand the broad, long-term trends. 

1.1. Geography 

Mid and West Wales is one of the most sparsely populated Fire 

and Rescue Services (FRS) in England and Wales. 

However, within the Service the unitary authorities of Swansea 

and Neath Port Talbot are significantly more urban and 

densely populated than the other unitary authorities which are 

predominantly rural with centres of population in towns. 

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1.2. Population 

The population of mid and west Wales is 898,451 according to the mid-year population estimates 

for 2014. 

Unitary Authority Area (Km2) Area % Population 

Population 

% 

Population 

Density 

(population 

per Km2) 

Powys 5,180 44% 132,675 15% 26 

Ceredigion 1,785 15% 75,425 8% 42 

Pembrokeshire 1,618 14% 123,666 14% 76 

Carmarthenshire 2,370 20% 184,898 21% 78 

Swansea 379 3% 241,297 27% 635 

Neath Port Talbot 441 4% 140,490 16% 318 

Mid and West Wales 

Area 

11,776 100% 898,451 100% 76 

Figure 1: Population Density by Unitary Authority 

Of the total population of mid and west Wales at the mid-year estimates 2014, 50.63% were 

female and 49.37% were male. It is reported that a much lower proportion of the Welsh population 

is drawn from black and other minority ethnic groups than in the rest of the UK. 


1.2.1. Growth of Population 

The population of mid and west Wales has risen by 52,083 from 846,368 to 898,451 in 2014 

according to the mid-year population estimates. This is a rise of 6.2% since 2001. The population 

is estimated to rise a further 3.2% to 927,103 in 2021 and another 2.5% to 950,625 in 2031. 

Figure 3 : Projected Population Estimates 

The growth in population has been different across the six unitary authorities. The population 

growth between 2001 and 2014 was largest in Pembrokeshire (+9.4%) and Swansea (+8%). 

Looking forward towards 2031, the area where the population is projected to increase the most is 

Swansea (+9.7%) and Carmarthenshire (+9.1%). 

Unitary Authority 

Mid-Year 

2001 

Mid-Year 

2004 

2021 

Projected 

2031 

Projected 

2001 

to 

2014 

2014 

to 

2021 

2014 

to 

2031 

Powys 126,398 132,675 135,897 136,055 5.0% 2.4% 2.5% 

Ceredigion 75,417 75,425 77,117 78,860 0.01% 2.2% 4.6% 

Pembrokeshire 113,058 123,666 125,798 126,719 9.4% 1.7% 2.5% 

Carmarthenshire 173,652 184,898 193,874 201,678 6.5% 4.9% 9.1% 

Swansea 223,463 241,297 252,232 264,710 8.0% 4.5% 9.7% 

Neath Port Talbot 134,380 140,490 142,185 142,603 4.5% 1.2% 1.5% 

Mid and West 

Wales Area 

846,368 898,451 927103 950625 6.2% 3.2% 5.8% 

Figure 4: Population Projections by Unitary Authority 

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Another factor in the population growth is that the population is getting older. This is shown by the 

fact that the proportion of the population which are over 65 years of age has risen since 2001. 

In 2001, 18.9% of the population of the Service area was over 65, this has risen to 21.8% in 2014. 

The proportion of the population aged between 16 and 64 remained broadly the same (61.8% to 

61.1%) with a decrease in the under 16 age group from 19.2% to 17.0%. 

The chart below shows how the increase in the proportion of the population over 65 is mirrored 

in each of the Unitary Authorities. Powys, Ceredigion, and Pembrokeshire have the largest 

proportion of over 65s and have seen the largest growth in this sector of the population. 

Figure 5: Population Aged 65 and Over by Unitary Authority 


1.2.2. Long Term Population Growth across Wales 

The population of Wales is projected to grow by 8.4% from 2015 to 2114 (see table below). 

This would see the population of Wales rise from 3.1 million to 3.57 million. The growth of 

population in Wales is projected to be less than the growth in the population of the UK as a whole. 

Age 

Range 

Projected Year % change from 2015 

2015 2025 2055 2114 2025 2055 2114 

0-14 520 535 534 537 2.9% -0.2% 0.6% 

15-29 599 564 574 582 -5.8% 1.7% 1.3% 

30-44 542 574 562 564 5.9% -2.2% 0.4% 

45-59 630 572 548 568 -9.2% -3.8% 3.2% 

60-74 531 573 559 573 7.9% -2.6% 2.6% 

75 & over 279 378 540 750 35.5% 58.1% 75.3% 

All ages 3,101 3,196 3,316 3,575 3.1% 3.9% 8.4% 

Figure 6: Population Projections by year (thousands) 

However, the rate of growth varies by age category, with the 75 and over age range likely to see 

an increase of 75% from 279,000 to 750,000 people by 2114. Indeed, it is projected that this age 

range will grow by 100,000 people by 2025 an increase of 35% on 2015. 

Figure 7: Population Projection for Wales by Age Group (2015 to 2114) 

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The table below shows the population projections as a percentage for each age range. It can be 

seen that the proportion of over 75s increased from 9% of the population in 2015 to 11.8% of the 

population in 2025 and to 21% of the population in 2114. In Wales, the proportion of population in 

the over 75 age category is about 1% higher than in the UK as a whole. 

Age 

Range 

Projected Year 

2015 2025 2055 2114 

0-14 16.8 16.7 16.1 15.0 

15-29 19.3 17.7 17.3 16.3 

30-44 17.5 18.0 16.9 15.8 

45-59 20.3 17.9 16.5 15.9 

60-74 17.1 17.9 16.9 16.0 

75 & over 9.0 11.8 16.3 21.0 

All ages 100 100 100 100 

Figure 8: Population Projections by year (percent) 

However, the rate of growth 

varies by age category, with the 

75 and over age range likely to 

see an increase of 75% from 

279,000 to 750,000 people by 

2114. Indeed, it is projected 

that this age range will grow 

by 100,000 people by 2025 an 

increase of 35% on 2015. 

1.2.3. Religion 

Figure 9: Religion of Mid and West Wales Residents (Census 2011) 

The chart shows that 59% of residents living in mid and west Wales see themselves as Christians. 

The most common religion in Wales following Christianity is Muslim, accounting for 0.87% of the 

population. Of the other religions in mid and west Wales, 0.23% are Hindu, 0.05% are Jewish, 

0.07% are Sikh. 7.96% of the population have not stated their religion. 


1.3. Housing 

In 2015/16 according to Council Tax data, there were 421,855 dwellings within the mid and west 

Wales area, split as follows: 

• Ceredigion – 35,175 • Carmarthenshire – 85,595 

• Neath Port Talbot – 65,363 • Pembrokeshire - 60,436 

• Powys – 63,929 • Swansea - 111,357 

The proportion of dwellings in each council tax band is shown in the table: 

Figure 10: Proportion of Dwellings by Council Tax Band 

The majority of dwellings within the mid and west Wales area (68% of households) are owner 

occupied as opposed to rented. 

The graph below shows how tenure varies in each of the Unitary Authority areas. Swansea and 

Neath Port Talbot have the highest proportion of socially rented properties, whist Ceredigion has 

the highest proportion of privately rented properties. 

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Figure 11: Households by Tenure 

Nearly a third (31.6%) of households in our Service area are one person households. This is 

broadly in line with the national picture. Each of the Authorities within our area have a higher 

proportion of One Person Households aged over 65’ than nationally, most notably in Ceredigion 

and Powys. Swansea has a high proportion of One Person Households under 65. 

Area 

Total One Person 

Household 

One Person 

Household : Aged 

65 and older 

One Person 

Household : Other 

Carmarthenshire 30.2% 14.8% 15.4% 

Ceredigion 33.1% 15.5% 17.7% 

Neath Port Talbot 30.2% 13.9% 16.3% 

Pembrokeshire 30.9% 15.0% 15.8% 

Powys 31.5% 15.8% 15.7% 

Swansea 33.3% 13.4% 19.9% 

Mid and West Wales 31.6% 14.5% 17.0% 

England and Wales 30.2% 12.4% 17.8% 

Figure 12: Percentage of One Person Households by Area 

The chart shows that 59% of residents living in mid and west Wales see themselves as Christians. 

The most common religion in Wales following Christianity is Muslim, accounting for 0.87% of the 

population. Of the other religions in mid and west Wales, 0.23% are Hindu, 0.05% are Jewish, 

0.07% are Sikh. 7.96% of the population have not stated their religion. 


1.4. Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation 

The Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) is published by the Welsh Assembly Government. 

WIMD is the official measure of relative deprivation for small areas in Wales. It is designed to 

identify those small areas where there are the highest concentrations of several different types of 

deprivation. The most current version is WIMD 2014 (revised in Aug 2015). 

The table below shows the spread of deprivation across mid and west Wales. The number of 

Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) in the 10% and 20% most deprived areas in Wales is 

shown by unitary authority. 

Lower Layer Super Output Areas (LSOA) are a geographic hierarchy designed by ONS to improve 

the reporting of small area statistics in England and Wales. They have an average of roughly 1,500 

residents and 650 households. 

Unitary Authority 

Number of LSOAs 

Most deprived 10% 

LSOAs in Wales 

(ranks 1 - 191) 

Most deprived 20% 

LSOAs in Wales 

(ranks 1 - 382) 

Powys 79 1 (1.3%) 3 (3.8%) 

Ceredigion 46 1 (2.2%) 1 (2.2%) 

Pembrokeshire 71 4 (5.6%) 6 (8.5%) 

Carmarthenshire 112 5 (4.5%) 12 (10.7%) 

Swansea 148 18 (12.2%) 37 (25.0%) 

Neath Port Talbot 91 12 (13.2%) 27 (29.7%) 

Figure 13: Most Deprived LSOAs by Unitary Authority 

It can be seen that the most deprived areas are in Swansea and Neath Port Talbot with over a 

quarter of the LSOAs in the top 20% most deprived. 

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The maps below show where the areas of deprivation are located: 

Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and South East Carmarthenshire 

Figure 14: Areas of Deprivation in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and South East 

Carmarthenshire 

Pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire 

Figure 14: Areas of Deprivation in Swansea, Neath Port Talbot and South East 

Carmarthenshire 


1.5. Language 

Data from the Census 2011 shows that the number of people who speak Welsh has fallen over 

since 2001 and that Welsh is now a minority language in the two heartlands, Carmarthenshire and 

Ceredigion. 

Figure 16: Welsh Speakers by Local Authority 

1.6. Business and Employment 

In 2014, according to the Office of National Statistics, the number of businesses and commercial 

organisations in the mid and west Wales area was 28,535. 

The graph below shows the number of businesses by sector and the change from 2008 to 2014. 

Figure 17: Businesses by Industry Sector and Change Over Time 

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It can be seen that the largest sectors in terms of number of businesses are: 

• Construction (14.8%) 

• Professional; Scientific & Technical (12.1%) 

• Accommodation and food services (11.6%) 

• Retail (10.5%) 

• Business administration and support services (9.9%) 

Since 2008, the number of businesses have decreased 5.6% from 30,245 to 28,535. The sectors 

which have seen the greatest reduction in the number of businesses are Construction (-13.5%), 

Retail (-16.4%) and Transport/Storage (-12.9%). Meanwhile the Professional, Scientific and 

Technical (+12.2%) and Health (+6%) sectors have increased. 

In 2014, the number of people in workplace employment across the Service area was 415,000. 

The chart below shows how many people are employed in each sector. 55% of the workforce is 

employed in two sectors. 

130,000 (31%) are employed in Public administration, defence, education and health whilst 

101,100 (24%) are employed in Wholesale, retail, transport, hotels and food. 

Figure 18: Workplace Employment by Industry 


The table below shows how the proportion of jobs in each sector varies across the six Unitary 

Authority areas: 

Figure 19: Proportion of Jobs in Sector by Unitary Authority 

16 


2. Political 

This section considers the regulatory and legal issues of the UK Government and the National 

Assembly of Wales to determine the extent to which they may influence the three Fire and Rescue 

Services in Wales. 

2.1. National Assembly for Wales 

The National Assembly comprises 60 members and following the elections in May 2016, the 

composition of the Assembly changed dramatically. Labour decreased from 30 to 29 seats and 

Plaid Cymru moved from 11 to 12 seats. The Conservatives lost three seats while the Liberal 

Democrats dropped from five seats to just one. UKIP gained seven Assembly Members (AM’s). 

In May 2016, the Welsh Assembly Elections saw a minority government formed as a coalition 

between Welsh Labour and the Welsh Liberal Democrats. Plaid Cymru formed the official 

opposition. 

The elections also saw a new Minister for Finance and Local Government. However, there was no 

change in the Minister for Communities and Children who has responsibility for the three Fire and 

Rescue Services in Wales. 

2.2. Welsh Government Legislative Programme 

The Government of Wales Act 2006 (as amended) enables the Welsh Government to bring forward 

its own programme for legislation in the 20 areas devolved to Wales. Since May 2016, the Welsh 

Government has moved away from a five-year legislative programme to provide an alternative 

annual statement of legislation. 

For 2016/17, the Welsh Government has proposed the following legislation: 

• Taxation - Land Transaction Tax and a Landfill Disposal Tax for Wales. 

• Legislation to repeal sections of the UK Governments Trade Union Act. 

• Reintroduction of a Public Health Bill. 

• New legal framework for supporting children and young people. 

• A Bill to abolish the Right to Buy and the Right to Acquire. 

2.3. Local Government Reform 

Local Government in Wales, which includes the Fire and Rescue Service, faces a period of 

uncertainty. The Draft Local Government (Wales) Bill made a provision to facilitate the mergers of 

the current 22 Local Authorities proposing eight new Authorities. However, following the outcome 

of the Welsh Assembly elections, the First Minister confirmed that the proposed reorganisation 

map for Local Government in Wales would not be implemented. 

The Labour manifesto did not include a commitment on the number of councils it would like to 

see and as a minority government would need the support of other parties if any changes were to 

happen. 


2.4. Devolution 

The Commission on Devolution in Wales (also known as the Silk Commission), established in 

2011, was set up to review the case for devolution of fiscal powers to the Welsh Assembly. 

Part 1 of the report made 33 recommendations and was implemented by the Wales Act 2014. 

In 2014, the second part of the report was published and made 61 recommendations including: 

• The devolution of responsibility for the Police Service to Wales. 

• Move to a “reserved powers” model consistent with devolved arrangements in other parts 

of the UK. 

• Devolution of further transport powers to Wales. 

2.5. European Referendum 

A referendum held in June 2016 saw the UK vote to leave the European Union (EU) with Wales 

backing a Brexit from the EU. The Brexit vote could have substantial consequences for Wales with 

the Welsh Government reporting that Wales had received £4bn of structural funding from the EU 

since 2000 with West Wales and the Valleys receiving the highest level of funding. The EU funding 

was set to continue until 2020, but following the Brexit vote, it is not clear whether the funding will 

continue to be available. 

Furthermore, Wales have a higher proportion of inward investment than the average across the 

UK and continued membership of the EU was considered beneficial to Wales in terms of the 

financial value and economic benefits of membership through access to the single market and the 

associated trading opportunities. 

2.6. Fire and Rescue National Framework 

The Welsh Government’s ‘Fire and Rescue National Framework 2016’ sets out the vision and 

priorities for Fire and Rescue Authorities (FRA’s) in Wales. The new framework focuses on the 

changing context in which the Fire & Rescue Service operates, and the challenges they face. 

The Framework identifies six key objectives for the FRS which fall under three main aspects: 

• An ageing population. 

• Austerity - medium to long term pressures on public finances. 

• A confirmed shift in emphasis from response to prevention. 

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2.7. Commissioned Reports 

2.7.1. Williams Report 

The Williams Report on Public Service Governance and Delivery, published in May 2014, made 

recommendations that were specific to the three Fire and Rescue Services in Wales. Additionally 

the report made recommendations to reduce the number of local authorities in Wales and alluded 

to closer links between the Fire and Rescue Service and the Ambulance Service. 

In October 2015, it was announced that there would be no further progress made on local 

government reorganisation until after May 2016. 

2.7.2. Knight Review 

Sir Ken Knight conducted an independent review into efficiencies and operations in the Fire and 

Rescue Authorities in England. The report was published in May 2013 and suggested the potential 

for adopting alternative governance structures and moving towards a different model to reduce 

the number of fire services. Although the report was commissioned for English Fire and Rescue 

Authorities this could potentially influence the devolved administration in Wales. 

2.7.3. Thomas Review 

On August 7th 2014, an independent review of the terms and conditions of operational staff in 

the fire service was launched to review the terms and conditions for all operational staff from 

Firefighter to Chief Fire Officer/Chief Executive level. The review was designed to consider 

whether the current terms and conditions are conducive to building the Fire and Rescue Service 

of the future. It will look at national arrangements for agreeing conditions: 

• Management practices and crewing arrangements. 

• Collaboration and integration with other emergency services. 

• The use of On-Call firefighters. 

• Clarity of process in the fair recruitment and remuneration of chief fire officers and fire 

officers. 

This Report has yet to be published by the Home Office. 

2.7.4. Fire and Rescue Service Efficiency Review 

In October 2014 a report was produced by the Chief Fire and Rescue Adviser for Wales providing 

an overview of areas that Fire and Rescue Authorities are expected to consider to drive down 

costs of providing a Fire and Rescue Service, whilst maintaining or improving outcomes for the 

public. It recognises the savings made to date by Fire and Rescue Authorities in Wales, supports 

some of the work already being undertaken, and provides additional areas for consideration 

locally. 

1 

WLGA October 2015 


2.8. Homeland Security (Resilience) 

International terrorism from extremist groups presents a terrorist threat to the UK. Drawing on 

extremist views, these groups often have the desire and capability to direct terrorist attacks 

against the UK. The current threat level for international terrorism in the UK is SEVERE (as at May 

2016). 

Additionally Northern Ireland related terrorism continues to pose a serious threat to British 

interests. The current threat level for Northern Ireland-related terrorism in Britain is SUBSTANTIAL 

(as at May 2016). 

The Joint Emergency Services Interoperability Programme (JESIP) was established in 2012 

to address the recommendations and findings from a number of major incident reports. The 

FRS National Framework 2016 states that ‘FRAs will need to ensure that they fully embed joint 

programmes aimed at ensuring blue light services work more effectively at both national and 

local level, for example embedding the JESIP, with the development of joint doctrine, training and 

organisational learning’. 

2.9. Collaboration 

41 Police and Crime Commissioners (PCCs) were elected across England and Wales on the 

15th November 2012. The Home Office announced in January 2016 that it would take forward 

legislation (the Policing and Crime Bill) to enable PCC’s to hold their local fire service to account. 

This is one of a number of changes to bring about closer working between the emergency 

services. 

In February 2016, the Home Office reported on the success of the PCC and how the government 

planned to support the work of the PCC. It means PCCs could potentially create a single 

employer for both police and fire personnel if they are able to demonstrate a clear business case 

for doing so. Blue light services will also have a new duty to work together to provide a more 

efficient and effective service to the public. 

This only applies in England currently. It is not inconceivable to imagine that this could possibly be 

extended to Fire and Rescue in Wales as well at some future point as part of a wider community 

safety remit. 

2.10. Unfunded Pension Schemes 

The Firefighter Pension Scheme (FPS) and the New Firefighter Pension Scheme (NFPS) are both 

statutory, tax-approved unfunded, final salary occupational pension schemes. Unfunded pension 

schemes are paid for by a combination of employer and employee contributions and a balancing 

item from the Welsh Government (UK Treasury). 

In the 2016 budget, it was announced that unfunded public sector pension contributions would 

increase from 2019. This estimated increase in employer contributions for 2019/20 equates to 

approximately 2% of pay. For MWWFRS, based on the 15/16 pay figures, this figure would be in 

the region of £660k. 

2 

www.mi5.gov.uk/terrorism 

3 

Fire and Rescue National Framework 2016 

20 


3. Economic 

During the last five years the UK has experienced difficult economic conditions which have 

impacted across the public sector. The UK’s austerity measures have had a major impact on the 

budget setting process for Local Authorities and it is predicted that further efficiencies will be 

sought to meet the budget deficit. These reductions in funding have created financial risks and 

uncertainty for the public sector in the UK. 

3.1. The Impact of Brexit 

The outcome of the EU referendum for the UK economy remains uncertain. However, despite 

initial concerns of the impact of BREXIT on the UK economy, the Confederation of British Industry 

(CBI) reported in September 2016 that the economy was continuing to grow but was likely to 

experience some deterioration in future growth. 

The impact of Brexit represents a threat to the public sector in Wales with the Welsh Local 

Government Association (WLGA) expressing concerns over the implications of the EU referendum 

outcome, calling it a “seismic change in UK public policy” for Welsh councils. 

The public sector in Wales has used EU funding to benefit the communities of Wales in terms of 

infrastructure, skills and training. However, the future of this funding previously provided by the EU 

remains uncertain with Policy decisions expected from the UK government on whether or not to 

recreate the EU funds. 

Across the public sector, there will also be an impact on public sector bodies as employers, in 

terms of changes to UK employment law (e.g. Working Time Regulations 1998, Agency Worker 

Regulations 2010) or to government procurement, which is currently subject to EU law. 

3.2. Economic Drivers 

Economists predict UK GDP growth to average just over 2% in 2016. However, risks to growth 

still remain particularly in view of the outcome of the EU referendum in June 2016. 

Inflation is expected to remain low in 2016, rising to 2% in 2017. 

3.2.1. Interest Rates 

In August 2016, The Bank of England cut interest rates from 0.5% to 0.25% in a bid to prevent the 

UK falling back into recession after the Brexit vote. 

The 0.25% base rate is a record low and is aimed at supporting growth and mitigating the 

uncertainty from the decision to leave the EU. These uncertainties are expected to cause delays in 

major investment decisions, lower house prices and less spending by households. 

4 

The impact of Brexit on government and public sector - www.pwc.co.uk 


3.2.2. Employment Rate 

The result of the Brexit vote is expected to see UK businesses delaying plans to invest and 

put hiring plans on hold with economists warning that the employment rate is likely to fall over 

the next year. Figures published in July 2016 showed the country’s employment rate remained 

unchanged at 74.4%, while the number of people in work rose by 176,000 over the period March 

to May 2016. The employment rate of 74.5% is at the highest level since these records began in 

1971. 

3.2.3. Unemployment Rate 

Figures from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported a fall in the number of people 

claiming job seekers allowance in July 2016. 

The data also reveals the UK unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest levels since summer 2005 

to 4.9%. (Source ONS) 

Figure 20: UK Unemployment Rate 

22 


3.3. Spending Review 

The appointment of Theresa May as Prime Minister July 2016 following the decision to leave the 

EU has indicated that the previous Government’s goal of securing a budget surplus by 2020 may 

be abandoned. The first clear signal of future strategy of the Conservative Government could 

come during the Conservative Party conference in October and then the chancellor’s Autumn 

Statement, which is normally delivered at the end of November or early December. It will set out 

the government’s taxation and spending plans, and the health of the UK economy. 

3.3.1. UK Government Budget 2016 

3.3.2. Pension 

As part of the 2016 Budget, changes to Public Sector Pension schemes will mean Employers will 

pay higher contributions to the schemes from 2019/20 as a result. It will not impact employees’ 

pensions directly, but will put further pressure on budgets in the public service sector. 

Any prolonged downturn of the stock market will signal huge problems for the £13bn Local 

Government Pension Scheme in Wales, which is fully funded and reliant on returns from market 

investments. With an actuarial valuation due this year it is vital that confidence is returned as soon 

as possible, otherwise millions of pounds may be lost for the scheme’s pensioners. 

3.4. Apprenticeship Levy 

The Apprenticeship Levy is a UK Government employment tax due to come into force in April 

2017. It will be introduced in the 2016 Finance Bill and applied across the whole of the UK. 

The Welsh Government is working with the UK Government to understand the impact of the 

introduction of the Levy in Wales. 

The apprenticeship levy requires all employers operating in the UK, with a pay bill over £3 million 

each year, to make an investment in apprenticeships. 

The levy rate is 0.5% of the total pay bill for the organisation with an allowance of £15,000 per 

year. The levy is collected by HMRC through the PAYE process. 

3.5. City Deal 

The Swansea Bay City Region encompasses the four local authority areas of Neath Port Talbot, 

Swansea, Carmarthenshire and Pembrokeshire. 

In 2016, a potential £1bn City Deal bid for the Swansea Bay City Region was revealed. The 

focus is on technology; health; energy; and ultra-fast broadband infrastructure, with the hope of 

attracting investment from around the world to transform its economic competitiveness. 

It is estimated that the city deal investment could lever in total around £3.3bn of output and 

£1.3bn of gross added value for Wales, while supporting 39,000 jobs in the region. 


3.6. Swansea Tidal Lagoon 

The construction of the ‘world’s first tidal lagoon’ in Swansea Bay would be a major infrastructure 

project with overall estimated project costs in the region of £1bn. Benefits expected from the 

Lagoon include the creation of over 2,800 construction jobs as well as up to 40 roles in the 

tourism related industry. 

It is estimated that the annual overall impact on Welsh GVA of the Swansea Bay tidal lagoon 

during operation could amount to approximately £76 million per year (2014) over the 120 year 

design lifespan of the power station. This would result in an annual boost to Welsh GVA of 0.14%. 

Annual operation of the tidal lagoon would also generate direct, indirect and induced jobs for the 

Welsh economy. 

However, at present this project is awaiting the outcome of the independent Hendry Review into 

tidal lagoons commissioned by the Westminster Government. 

5 

Potential economic effects of Swansea Tidal Lagoon 

24 


4. Social 

4.1. Health and Well-Being 

4.1.1. Ageing Population 

Wales has an ageing population. In 2008, 18% of the population were over 65. This is expected to 

rise to 26% by 2033. Wales has the biggest percentage of population over retirement age in the 

UK. An ageing population is likely to result in an increased demand and pressure on health and 

social care. This is leading to increased costs and cuts being made to these sectors. 

There is an increase in the proportion of older people able to stay in their own home as they grow 

older as a result of the Welsh Government’s policies. This is known as ‘Ageing in Place’. 

The increased number of older people living independently in homes could have an impact on the 

Fire and Rescue Service as older people are statistically more vulnerable to house fires. In Wales, 

43% of people aged 75 and older live alone - two-thirds of women and one-third of men. 

It is believed that deaths and injuries from fire will rise in proportion to the increases in numbers of 

older people. Almost twice as many people over the age of 50 now die in dwelling fires in the UK 

each year compared to those under 50. 

4.1.2. Mental Health Issues 

Mental health problems are more common in certain groups, for example, people with poor living 

conditions, those from ethnic minority groups, disabled people, homeless people and offenders. 

Particular mental health problems are also more common in certain people. For example, women 

are more likely than men to have anxiety disorders and depression. Drug and alcohol addictions 

are more common in men, and men are also more likely to commit suicide. Mental health 

problems can have a serious effect on the individual and those around them. 

Every year more than 250,000 people are admitted to psychiatric hospitals and over 4,000 people 

commit suicide in the UK. In Wales, there were 9570 admissions to mental health facilities in 

2015/16. The most recent figures show that there were 247 suicides in Wales in 2014. 

4.1.3. Alcohol and Drugs 

Alcohol consumption in Wales is increasing. According to results of the 2015 Welsh Health Survey, 

40% of adults reported drinking above the guidelines on at least one day in the week. The ONS 

also reports that Wales has the highest levels of binge drinkers anywhere in the UK. 

Illicit drug use by adults aged 16 to 59 has declined over the last decade, from 11.2% in 

2004/2005 to 8.6% in 2014/2015. Drug use has also decreased among young adults over the last 

decade from 26.5% in 2004/2005 to 19.4% in 2014/2015. 

Research suggests that nationally more than 50% of fire fatalities within the home involve drink or 

drug-related behaviour. Therefore, increase in alcohol consumption may negatively impact the Fire 

and Rescue Service by increasing the risk of fire fatalities. Concurrently, a decrease in use of illicit 

drugs may impact positively on the fire service due to a reduced risk of drug-related fire fatalities. 


Increased alcohol consumption may also have an impact on number of Road Traffic Collisions 

(RTC). Drivers with blood alcohol levels above the legal limit for driving (currently 80mg of alcohol 

per 100ml of blood) were more likely to be involved in the more serious accidents that result in 

death or serious casualties. 

4.1.4. Smoking 

The number of smokers has fallen over the last 20 years. There are about 9.6 million adult 

cigarette smokers in Great Britain and the number of ex-smokers exceeds that of smokers. 

Smoking prevalence is highest among young adults: 23% of those aged 16-24 and 24% among 

the 25-34 age group. Smoking continues to be lowest among people aged 60 and over... (ash, 

2016). Recent statistics published by Welsh Government reported that 19% of adults in Wales 

currently smoke. Smoking is more common amongst men, and less common amongst the older 

age groups. Adults in more deprived areas were more likely to smoke. 

There is a strong link between cigarette smoking and socio-economic group. In 2014, 30% 

of adults in routine and manual occupations smoked compared to 13% in managerial and 

professional occupations. People in the lowest social group are more likely to be heavy smokers: 

18% reported smoking 21 to 30 cigarettes a day compared to 9% in the highest social group. 

An estimated 2.8 million adults in Great Britain currently use electronic cigarettes. Concerns over 

the battery chargers of e-cigs have recently been raised after more than 100 fires were blamed on 

the devices since 2012. 

4.1.5. Obesity 

More than half of adults in Wales are overweight or obese, according to the latest Welsh Health 

Survey. The annual survey says the problem affects 57% of adults, with 22% being obese. 

In children, 35% are considered overweight or obese (19% obese). Men were more likely to be 

overweight than women. Obesity was more prevalent in middle age for both men and women. 

The percentage of people reporting being overweight or obese increased with deprivation. 

4.1.6. Living Alone 

A rise in the number of people living alone could increase the incidence of fires in the home. 

Households occupied by one-person increase the risk of fire due to the likelihood of being alone 

when a fire occurs increasing the demands on home safety equipment and the provision of fire 

safety advice. 

6 

The ageing population in Wales / www.assembly.wales 

7 

Fire Statistics UK 2008 / www.communities.gov.uk 

Ageing Safely- Protecting an Ageing Population from the Risk of Fire in the Home www.cpa.org.uk 

8 

Annual Report / www.wales.nhs.uk 

9 

Welsh Health Survey / http://gov.wales 

10 

Drug Misuse England & Wales 2014/15 https://www.gov.uk 

11 

Welsh Health Survey 2015 - Health Related Lifestyle Results / http://gov.wales 

26 


4.2. Employment 

Wales has recently seen a large rise in employment rates, with 72.6% (UK employment rate 

74.4%) of the country’s working age population (age 16-64) in employment as of May 2016. 

Figure 21: Employment Rate 

As of May 2016, the unemployment rate in Wales was 4.6% (UK unemployment rate 4.9 per cent), 

which is a decrease of 2% from the previous year. 

Figure 22: Unemployment Rate 

An increase in the number of people in employment could mean that the number of people away 

from the home during the day could rise, decreasing the risk of fires in the home during the day. 

Additionally, an increase in the number of people in employment may adversely affect the on-call 

availability and recruitment in the rural areas. 


4.3. Welfare Reform 

The Welfare Reform Act 2012 introduced the greatest changes to welfare benefits in 60 years. 

These reforms will have far-reaching impacts for low-middle income households and non-working 

families with children. The UK Government’s Summer Budget 2015 confirmed annual welfare 

spending will be cut by £12 billion which will take four years (i.e. by 2019-20) instead of the two 

years initially expected prior to the Budget. 

Wales has a higher dependence on welfare benefits than Great Britain as a whole. The latest 

statistics (for May 2011) show that 18.4% of the working-age population in Wales were claiming 

welfare benefits compared to the Great Britain average of 14.5%. The main reason for the higher 

benefit claimant rate in Wales is the higher proportion of people claiming disability and sickness 

benefits.’ 

The transitional effect of these changes is of concern to Local Authorities; Police; Health; and Fire 

and Rescue Authorities. The Welfare reform could have a direct negative impact on claimants’ 

health and increased poverty levels. Additionally, these changes could result in an increase in 

homelessness and social upheaval, as people move around to find new accommodation. 

One of the consequences may well be a reduction in the amount of revenue generated by 

Housing Authorities and Social Landlords, which could result in deterioration in the quality of 

accommodation available to tenants. 

As illustrated, out of all local authority areas in Wales, Neath Port Talbot, Blaenau Gwent and 

Merthyr Tydfil are estimated to be the hardest hit by the welfare reforms analysed. At the bottom 

end of the scale, on average, Powys, Gwynedd and Ceredigion are much less affected by the 

welfare reforms analysed. This reflects their relatively low benefit claimant rates with just over 

a tenth of the population aged 16-64 in these areas claiming working-age benefits, the lowest 

proportion in Wales (Welsh Government, 2014). 

Figure 21: Employment Rate 

28 


4.4. Social Unrest 

4.4.1. Crime Rates: 

Police forces across the UK recorded 4.5 million offences in the year ending March 2016, an 

annual rise of 8%. Most of the latest rise is thought to be due to improved crime recording 

practices and processes leading to a greater proportion of reports of crime being recorded in the 

last year than in the previous year. Around 1.8 million incidents of Anti-Social Behaviour (ASB) 

were recorded by the Police (including the British Transport Police) in the latest year, a decrease of 

7% compared with the previous year. 

Area 

All 

Crime 

Rate 

% 

Change 

Violence 

against 

person, 

rate 

with 

injury, 

rate 

Burglary 

Offences 

against 

Vehicles 

Criminal 

Damage 

Drug 

Offences 

Dyfed - Powys 40 -6 10 4 3 2 7 7 

Gwent 61 -17 12 6 9 7 12 5 

North Wales 58 -8 15 6 7 4 12 5 

South Wales 67 -5 13 7 8 8 11 4 

WALES 59 -9 13 6 7 6 11 4 

Figure 24 – Crime Rates in Wales 2015/16 

4.4.2. Fire Statistics 

In 2015-16, there were 1,371 deliberate primary fires in Wales. This is a 13% increase of the 

previous year, but 81% less than figures from 2001- 02. ‘Deliberate primary fires accounted for 

29% of all primary fires in 2015-16. Concurrently, around 4 in 5 secondary fires were deliberate. 

Fires on grassland, woodland or crops accounted for 44 per cent of deliberate secondary fires in 

2015-16 and numbers of these fires increased by 32 per cent compared with the previous year 

(National Statistics, 2016). 

12 

Fire Statistical Bulletin Wales 2015-16 - gov.wales 


5. Technology 

5.1. Information and Communications Technology 

Wales has the highest availability of superfast broadband of any of the devolved nations, 

according to Ofcom’s Communications Market Report 2015. 

Nearly four in five (79%) premises in Wales are now capable of receiving superfast broadband at 

speeds of 30Mbit/s, an increase of 24 percentage points from 2014 (at 55%). Internet take-up in 

Wales also increased between 2014 and 2015 to around 17 in every 20 households (86%). 

This was a rise of six percentage points on 2014 (80%). Tablet ownership has continued to 

increase among adults in Wales, reaching 60% of households, compared to less than half (45%) 

last year. This has outstripped growth across the UK as a whole (54%). 

Ownership of smartphones in Wales remains stable in 2015 - at six in ten adults - in line with the 

UK average. 

5.2. Mobile Technology 

5.2.1. RFID 

RFID stands for Radio-Frequency Identification. The acronym refers to small electronic devices 

that consist of a small chip and an antenna. The chip typically is capable of carrying 2,000 bytes 

of data or less. 

The RFID device serves the same purpose as a bar code or a magnetic strip on the back of a 

credit card or ATM card; it provides a unique identifier for that object, and, just as a bar code 

or magnetic strip must be scanned to get the information, the RFID device must be scanned to 

retrieve the identifying information. 

A significant advantage of RFID devices over the others mentioned is that the RFID device does 

not need to be positioned precisely relative to the scanner. We are all familiar with the difficulty 

that store checkout clerks sometimes have in making sure that a barcode can be read. In addition, 

credit cards and ATM cards must be swiped through a special reader. 

RFID technology has been available for more than fifty years. It has only been recently that the 

ability to manufacture the RFID devices has fallen to the point where they can be used as a 

“throwaway” inventory or control device. Alien Technologies recently sold 500 million RFID tags to 

Gillette at a cost of about ten cents (approx. 8 pence in Nov 2016) per tag. 

One reason that it has taken so long for RFID to come into common use is the lack of standards 

in the industry. Most companies invested in RFID technology only use the tags to track items 

within their control; many of the benefits of RFID come when items are tracked from company to 

company or from country to country. 

What is RFID? - www.technovelgy.com/ct/technology-article.asp 

13 

The Communications Market: Wales - OFcom 

30 


5.2.2. Intelligent Alerting 

4.4.1. Crime Rates: 

Intelligent Alerting can improve the speed, efficiency and safety of teams, equipment and critical 

infrastructure to save lives and property threatened by fire - from first alert to final dispatch and 

acknowledgment. 

‘Intelligent Alerting’ has the potential to improve our part-time operations in two basic ways: 

• The first is improved response times as Control will be aware much sooner that a ‘full crew’ 

are responding, they currently might wait up to six minutes before mobilising an alternative 

station. 

• The second improvement relates to the more efficient use of part-time resources by being 

more selective when mobilising a station, much the same way as mobilising for co-responder 

incidents. 

However, there are also risks inherent with introducing selective alerting technology particularly if 

the remuneration of individual firefighters is affected. 

The Service is currently investigating three alternative technology solutions that might be able to 

deliver intelligent alerting and these are: 

1. Emergency Services Network (ESN) - The replacement for Airwave is technically capable of 

providing the technology we seek. 

2. SwissPhone - This is a company with a bespoke and standalone solution that is already 

proven but has not yet been fully adopted by any UK fire service. 

3. Capita - These are the suppliers of our new command and control system and after having 

bought out a UK paging company (PageOne) are now integrating their product to make an end 

to end solution, although the alerters they offer are made by SwissPhone. 

5.3. Digital Fire Ground 

Digitising the fire ground would require the replacing of all existing analogue data collection 

systems with digital solutions that can be shared instantly. 

The digital system would take the form of a standalone data cloud on the fire ground where data 

can be held in a repository to be accessed by all with the correct permissions. 

The gathering of data would be used by all available and new technologies such as drones, body 

cameras, accessing appliance CCTV and viewed through the use of mobile devices such as 

tablets. 

This technology on the fire ground will support the Officer in charge to live capture ARA’s, decision 

logs and evidence gather for future Fire Investigations. This data capture would then be stored 

into the ‘cloud’ on the fire ground and can be accessed by anyone on the incident or remotely 

through 4G connectivity. ESN would provide a robust network to support digitalisation and is a 

platform on which technological advances can be built. 


5.4. ESMCP 

The Emergency Services Mobile Communications Programme will deliver the Emergency Services 

Network (ESN), a vital piece of critical national infrastructure, in a better, smarter, cheaper way. 

The Emergency Services need a mobile communications system which works where they need 

it, when they need it, and how they need it, has been proven repeatedly; from major events such 

as the 7/7 attacks, or the public order disturbances of summer 2011, to the massive coordination 

efforts required during the 2012 London Olympics. 

The current Airwave system delivers some of what the Emergency Services require, but has 

failed to maintain pace with the technological advances in telecommunications since contracts 

were signed in 2000. The expiry of the current contracts offers an opportunity to deliver modern 

communications that will enable the Emergency Services to improve their operational efficiency 

more cost effectively at a time of acute fiscal pressure across Government. 

Airwave is a PFI contract where the voice and narrowband data service is expensive when 

compared with similar recently-deployed systems. It cannot be enhanced to provide a broadband 

data service that the Emergency Services are increasingly acquiring from commercial providers. 

Emergency Services Network (ESN) is based on a number of smaller contracts that are competed 

more regularly, using emerging commercial and public safety standards. 

In response to the Strategic Drivers, the Programme aims to: 

• Replace the mobile communications service relied on by the 3ES and other public safety 

users with an ESN provided on standard commercial networks enhanced to meet the public 

safety requirements for coverage, functionality, availability and security. 

The Programme has therefore defined the strategic objectives of ESN as: 

• More Affordable (Cheaper): ESN will be based on a commercial mobile communications 

network that can be re-competed more regularly to exploit market forces and take advantage 

of developments in technology. 

• Meeting Requirements (Better): Users are increasingly relying on commercial broadband data 

to host their applications. ESN will provide this as a core service with appropriate levels of 

security, coverage, and availability. 

• Improved Flexibility (Smarter): A menu of services ranging from fully operational to 

administrative only will enable users to select and pay for only those features that they 

require to deliver their services effectively. These services will in turn enable further service 

transformation, driving further efficiencies and improvements . 

32 


The transition from Airwave to ESN will be phased as detailed in the graphic below: 

The transition timetable has changed from the original plan above nevertheless the proposed 

completion date has remained the same. 

5.5. Learning Technology 

A Learning Content Management System (LCMS) is a software application for the administration, 

documentation, tracking, reporting and delivery of electronic content, courses or training 

programs. 

Learning Content Management Systems range from systems for managing training and 

educational records to software for distributing online blended/hybrid adult learning courses over 

the Internet. In this way, LCMSs act to augment the lessons the instructor/tutor is giving in a 

traditional classroom environment, not necessarily replacing them. 

Corporate training departments use LCMSs to deliver online training, as well as to automate 

record-keeping and employee registration on these courses. Several Government departments 

including Military, Police, Fire and Ambulance Services are currently using these systems to 

deliver their learning content in a more cost effective and auditable way, with several using the 

LCMS as a platform to transform their training delivery and encompass more modern thinking in 

the way people learn. 


6. Legislative and Other Statutory Drivers 

The National Assembly for Wales is able to pass laws on all subjects in the 20 devolved areas 

without first needing the agreement of the UK Parliament. Proposed laws are called Bills and 

enacted laws are called Acts. 

In Wales, there are 40 Members of Parliament elected to the UK Parliament where responsibility 

for some non-devolved policy areas for Wales resides. 

The legislative programme consists of the laws being developed by the Welsh Government to 

help deliver the Programme for Government. The Welsh Government’s legislative priorities for the 

coming year are outlined in an annual statement by the First Minister. 

6.1. Fire and Rescue Services National Framework 2016 (Wales) 

The Framework sets priorities and objectives and provides guidance for Fire and Rescue 

Authorities (FRAs) in Wales. FRAs must have regard to the Framework in carrying out their 

functions. 

The 2016 Framework has been subject to full consultation and includes priorities and objectives 

for the 3 FRAs based on the changing context of the environment in which they operate, 

including: 

• severe medium to long term pressure on public finances. 

• an aging population in Wales and. 

• a shift from residential to homebased care, which potentially increases the number of people 

at risk of fire, and a more general focus in the public sector on prevention. 

The 2016 Framework sets out priorities and objectives for FRAs and provides guidance for FRAs 

in carrying out their functions. It also provides strategic direction from the Welsh Government 

while allowing FRAs to deliver services that reflect local needs and risks. 

The 2016 Framework does not alter FRAs’ core duties (e.g. of promoting fire safety, fighting 

fires and effecting rescues). Its provisions in respect of those duties are considered to be cost 

neutral and do not constitute new burdens. The Framework also encourages FRAs to use their 

enabling powers to address other risks and to respond to other types of incidents. FRAs already 

carry out much of this work on a voluntary basis; the Framework seeks only to focus and codify 

it. The Framework acknowledges that further expansion and diversification would be subject 

to the falling incidence of fire creating spare capacity for FRAs. Therefore, these provisions are 

also considered to be cost-neutral. The Framework highlights the principle of FRAs undertaking 

a wider role, but does not commit FRAs to doing so to any particular extent. This is a matter for 

FRAs based on what is safe and reasonable, and within capacity. 

6.2. Policing and Crime Bill 2015-16 to 2016-17 

The Police Reform and Social Responsibility Act 2011 is an Act of the Parliament of the United 

Kingdom. It transferred the control of police forces from police authorities to elected Police and 

Crime Commissioners. The first Police and Crime Commissioner Elections were held in November 

2012. The next elections took place in May 2016 and subsequently every four years in line with 

other National Elections. 

34 


Following statutory consultation, ministers have decided to introduce legislation that will place a 

statutory duty on all three blue lights services to collaborate. The measures, which will only apply 

to England, will enable PCCs to take on the functions and duties of fire and rescue authorities 

in their area and potentially create a single employer for police and fire personnel “where a local 

case is made”. In the model, a chief officer would be accountable to the PCC for both fire and 

policing. 

6.3. The Environment (Wales) Act 2016 

The Environment (Wales) Act puts in place the legislation needed to plan and manage Wales’ 

natural resources in a more proactive, sustainable and joined-up way. The Act received Royal 

Assent on 21 March 2016. It delivers against the Programme for Government commitment to 

introduce new legislation for the environment. This positions Wales as a low carbon, green 

economy, ready to adapt to the impacts of climate change. 

The act will mean significant economic, social and environmental benefits for Wales. The Act has 

been carefully designed to support and complement the Welsh Governments work to help secure 

Wales’ long-term well-being, so that current and future generations benefit from a prosperous 

economy, a healthy and resilient environment and vibrant, cohesive communities. 

6.4. Well Being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 

This Act came into force on the 1 April 2016 and will impact on the public bodies listed in the Act 

by ensuring these bodies focus on the long term, work better with people and communities and 

each other, and look to prevent problems and take a more joined-up approach. 

The Act, for the first time, sets out in statute a definition of sustainable development: 

“Sustainable development means the process of improving the economic, social, environmental 

and cultural well-being of Wales by taking action, in accordance with the sustainable development 

principle, aimed at achieving the well-being goals.” 

The Act places a duty on each public body to carry out sustainable development and must: set 

and publish objectives that are designed to maximise its contributions to achieving each of the 

well-being goals and take all reasonable steps to meet its objectives. 

These are: 

• A prosperous Wales. 

• A resilient Wales. 

• A healthier Wales. 

• A more equal Wales. 

• A Wales of cohesive Communities. 

• A Wales of vibrant culture and thriving welsh language. 

• A globally responsible Wales. 

14 

Environment (Wales) Act 2016 - gov.wales 


The Act establishes a statutory Future Generations Commissioner for Wales, whose role is to act 

as a guardian for the interests of future generations in Wales, and to support the public bodies 

listed in the Act to work towards achieving the well-being goals. 

The Act also establishes Public Services Boards (PSBs) for each local authority area in Wales. 

Each PSB must improve the economic, social, environmental and cultural well-being of its area by 

working to achieve the well-being goals. 

6.1. Wales Bill 2016-17 

The Wales Bill 2016-17 sets out amendments to the Government of Wales Act 2006 by moving to 

a reserved powers model for Wales and the devolution of further powers to Wales. The Wales Bill 

also provides for devolution in the longer term of policing and the criminal justice system deferred 

until 2026 as recommended by the Silk Commission on devolution. 

The Bill has been presented to Parliament and will be expected to complete its passage through 

the Houses of Parliament within the next 12 months. 

6.2. Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 

The Welsh Language (Wales) Measure 2011 establishes a legal framework to impose a duty on 

some organisations to comply with one or more standards of conduct on the Welsh Language. 

Standards will gradually replace the current system of Welsh language schemes, introduced by 

Welsh Language Act 1993. 

The Welsh Language Commissioner has now published the Welsh Language Standards. These 

are a set of legally binding requirements which will enable the Welsh Language Commissioner to 

place duties in relation to the Welsh language. These standards will apply to specific organisations 

including the Fire and Rescue Service in Wales. Organisations must comply with these standards 

and the Commissioner has the power to launch an investigation if members of the public feel 

that there has been interference with their freedom to use the language whilst dealing with these 

bodies. 

The Standards will operate in a number of areas including: 

• Service delivery. 

• Policy making. 

• Operational areas. 

• Promotion. 

• Record keeping. 

36 


6.3. Consultations 

6.3.1. Flooding and Water Rescue 

There is a consultation (September 2016) on a proposal to extend Fire and Rescue Authorities’ 

(FRAs) duties so that flooding and water rescue incidents are included. 

As well as fighting fires and promoting fire safety, FRAs are required by law to respond to road 

traffic accidents and certain other incidents, such as chemical spills or rescuing people from 

collapsed buildings. However, there is currently no statutory duty for flooding or other waterrelated 

incidents. 

The proposed new duty would require FRA’s to make provision for, and to respond to, 

emergencies arising from floods and incidents involving particular types of inland waters. 


7. Environment 

7.1. Climate Change 

Climate change is the way the World’s climate is changing as a result of the level of gases in the 

atmosphere. The latest climate projections suggest that Wales will see hotter, drier summers 

and milder, wetter winters. There is likely to be an increase in frequency and severity of extreme 

weather events (e.g. heatwaves, very heavy downpours) as well as gradual increases in average 

temperature, winter precipitation and sea level. In a changing climate, the Service may need 

to respond to an increased frequency and severity of flooding, landslide and wildfire events. 

There may also be changes in social and recreational behaviour that present new challenges to 

emergency services. 

Organisations need to consider whether planning, staff, equipment and resources can respond 

to changing pressures. These may require innovative developments in appliance and equipment 

design and capability, additional training for firefighters and the capacity of control room staff to 

deal with increased call demand. 

7.1.1. Climate Change Mitigation 

Climate change mitigation addresses the root causes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

Emission reduction reduces the likelihood and impact of severe weather events and their 

consequences in the long term. Efforts in Wales to reduce emissions will have global benefits. 

In Wales, the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 and the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 

2015 embed climate change action and sustainable development principles across government 

and the wider public sector. 

7.1.2. Climate Change Adaptation 

Adaption is, in the context of climate change, making changes to limit harm, or exploit beneficial 

opportunities arising from the impacts of climate change. These changes will have consequences 

into how the Service plans for the future. Adaptation has clear links with a business continuity 

approach as a means of early intervention for potential problems in the future. The Service will 

need to ensure that its policies and strategic plans address, and reduce the vulnerability to 

climate change and exploit opportunities to increase resilience. This could involve identifying 

new opportunities, implementing appropriate actions and making changes to the way the Service 

delivers our key services. It also means working in partnership with other public sector bodies and 

key stakeholders to implement these responses. 

7.2. Flooding 

Increased incidence of flooding as a result of climate change is potentially one of the greatest 

risks facing communities in the future. 

Under the Fire and Rescue Services Act 2004, English and Welsh Fire and Rescue Authorities 

(FRAs) have a power to respond to floods. However, they do not have a statutory duty to do so. 

The Pitt review published in 2008 recommended that the Government should urgently put in 

place a fully funded national capability for flood rescue with Fire and Rescue Authorities playing a 

leading role underpinned as necessary by a statutory duty. 

38 


Scotland introduced a statutory duty to make provision to deal with flooding in April 2005. 

Northern Ireland did the same in January 2012. 

In Wales, the Environmental Agency Wales 2008 National Flood Risk Assessment, it was identified 

that 220,000 properties were at risk of flooding from river and the sea. 97,000 of these properties 

are also thought to be susceptible to surface water flooding, and a further 137,000 properties are 

estimated to be vulnerable to surface water flooding alone. 

In total, approximately 357,000 properties in Wales (which is equivalent to 1 in 6 properties) are at 

risk of flooding. Estimated annual damages to all properties in Wales at risk of flooding from rivers 

and the sea is around £200 million. 

7.3. Wildfires 

Severe wildfire has now been added to the UK’s National Risk Register of Civil Emergencies. 

Wildfires are predominantly started as a result of human activity and can be accidental or 

deliberate. Climate change is likely to increase the incidence of wildfire. 

Wildfires present a challenge for the Service in dealing with incidents and maintaining an 

emergency response for other emergency calls. Between 2000 and 2008, Swansea and Neath 

Port Talbot were respectively the second and fourth Unitary Authorities most prone to wildfires in 

Wales. Wildfires are more likely to occur in the most deprived areas of Mid and West Wales. 

Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Service attend over 2,500 grass or wildfires annually. 

7.4. Recycling / Waste Management 

In 2012/13, a number of fires at Waste and Recycling sites promoted the Waste Industry Safety 

and Health (WISH) to issue guidance to reduce fire risk at such sites. Environment Agency 

statistics indicate that the number of fires at Waste and Recycling sites have fallen since 2011, but 

the number of serious and significant fires remains constant. 

7.5. Planned Development 

The provisions of the Planning and Compulsory Purchase Act 2004 and the Local Development 

Plan (LDP) Regulations 2005, place a requirement on Local Authorities as the Local Planning 

Authority to prepare LDPs for their administrative areas. The LDP sets out policies and proposals 

for the future development and use of land. The Plan areas excludes parts of any County’s 

contained within a National Park, where the Park Authority makes provision in respect of the 

development pan and development proposals in that area. 

The LDPs covers allocation related to housing, employment and infrastructure proposals for the 

lifetime of the plans. Typically, the lifetimes of the plans are in the region of 15 years and most 

existing plans run to between 2020 and 2026. 

15 

Flooding in Wales - nationalarchives.gov.uk 


7.5.1. Swansea Local Development Plan 

Swansea is the second largest City in Wales and the urban focus for the Swansea Bay City 

Region. The population of the County is around 240,500, which has been increasing steadily for 

nearly a decade and makes it the second largest County in terms of population in Wales. 

The population is expected to grow over the next decade and the LDP will need to provide about 

17,000 new dwellings and 14,000 new jobs over the plan period 2010-25. The seven Strategic 

Housing Policy Zones shown will facilitate appropriate levels of sustainable housing growth across 

each zone. 

Figure 25: Strategic Housing Policy Zones within Swansea 

The local economy supports approximately 107,000 jobs. The LDP employment strategy will 

facilitate growth by delivering business use at appropriate sites including: 

• The major site of strategic significance at Felindre adjacent to the M4. 

• J46 and land south of Fabian Way around the operational port. 

7.5.2. Neath Port Talbot Local Development Plan 

Climate change mitigation addresses the root causes by reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 

Emission reduction reduces the likelihood and impact of severe weather events and their 

consequences in the long term. Efforts in Wales to reduce emissions will have global benefits. 

In Wales, the Environment (Wales) Act 2016 and the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 

2015 embed climate change action and sustainable development principles across government 

and the wider public sector. 

40 


Key regeneration schemes and projects include: 

• Harbourside Strategic Regeneration Area - a mixed use of development of residential and 

employment. 

• Coed Darcy Urban Village - Once completed the development will comprise approximately 

4,000 dwellings, 41,200sqm of business use, up to 3,000sqm of retail floorspace (to provide 

for the needs of the Urban Village), other commercial development, education and community 

facilities and associated infrastructure. 

• Valleys Regeneration Scheme - Mixed use regeneration scheme. 

• Coastal Corridor Regeneration Schemes - Mixed use regeneration schemes. 

Neath Port Talbot County Borough Council Local Development Plan 2011 – 2026 

http://www.npt.gov.uk/PDF/ldp_deposit_local_development_plan_august_2013.pdf 

7.5.3. Carmarthenshire Local Development Plan 

Carmarthenshire has a population of approximately 178,000. Most new housing and employment 

development will be steered towards the following urban centres: 

• Llanelli Area (including Burry Port/Pembrey). 

• Ammanford/Cross Hands Area. 

• Carmarthen. 

The population is expected to grow and the LDP will need to provide in the region of 13,405 new 

homes in the County. The following sites are deemed to be strategic sites: 

• West Carmarthen. 

• Pibwrlwyd, Carmarthen. 

• South Llanelli Strategic Zone. 

• Berwick/Bynea. 

7.5.4. Pembrokeshire Local Development Plan 

Pembrokeshire is a predominantly rural County, with a strong maritime influence. 

The Pembrokeshire ports and the Haven Waterway are international assets, critical to the 

future energy security of the UK. The population of Pembrokeshire is forecast to grow from 

approximately 97,147 in 2011 to 102,626 in 2021 – an increase of 5,479. 

Land is provided for the development of 173 hectares of employment land on a mix of strategic 

and local employment sites. Strategic employment sites are identified at the following locations: 

• Blackbridge, Milford Haven. 

• Pembrokeshire Science and Technology Park, Pembroke Dock. 

• Withybush Business Park, Haverfordwest. 

• Trecwn. 


Provision is made for approximately 7,300 dwellings in the Plan period, to enable delivery of 5,700 

dwellings. 

Development at the Ports of Milford Haven and Fishguard will be permitted for port related 

facilities and infrastructure, including energy related development. 

Pembrokshire County Council Local Development Plan (up to 2021) 

http://www.pembrokeshire.gov.uk/objview.asp?object_id=8565&language= 

7.5.5. Powys Local Development Plan 

The Council is consulting on proposed Further Focused Changes to the Local Development Plan 

(LDP). The consultation period runs from 10th October 2016 to 21st November 2016. 

7.5.6. Ceredigion Local Development Plan 

Ceredigion is a sparsely populated and geographically large County (159,500 ha). Its 6 main 

towns; Aberaeron, Aberystwyth, Cardigan, Lampeter, Llandysul and Tregaron, together with 

neighbouring border towns support a large rural hinterland. Cardigan Bay, the Cambrian 

Mountains and the Dyfi and Teifi estuaries form natural outlines for the County’s borders. 

The majority of the County’s population is located along the coast, with many fewer people living 

in the upland areas inland. The 2009 Mid-Year Estimate of Ceredigion’s population is 76,4005 and, 

assuming that the long term trend of in-migration continues, this figure is projected to increase to 

around 86,0006 by 2022, despite the higher number of deaths than births in the county. 

The need to ensure that infrastructure requirements for transport, communications and utilities 

are clearly identified and wherever possible, come forward in parallel with the development they 

support. Similarly, where climate change leads to a need to reassess the sustainability of existing 

infrastructure, the implications of this for development will need to be considered (e.g. rising sealevels 

and managed retreat). 

The need to ensure that Ceredigion makes sufficient land available for resource recovery and 

waste management facilities to enable all National and International obligations relating to 

waste to be satisfied; and the need to encourage all development to reduce and manage waste 

sustainably. 

7.6. Developments of National Significance (DNS) 

On the 1 March 2016 the Town and Country Planning Act 1990 was amended to prescribe what 

projects constitute Developments of National Significance (DNS). Applications for qualifying 

projects are made to and determined by Welsh Government ministers and average from 6-12 per 

year. 

Currently there are three DNS applications in place for the MAWWFRS area for planning 

permission, these are in Pembrokeshire, Carmarthenshire and Powys; further detail of these 

applications can be found in the individual Station Risk Profiles. 

42 


7.7. Nationally Significant infrastructure Projects 

Nationally significant infrastructure projects (NSIP) are major infrastructure developments in 

England and Wales, such as proposals for power plants, large renewable energy projects, new 

airports and airport extensions, major road projects etc. The Planning Act 2008 (as amended) sets 

out the regime for dealing with NSIP’s, a developer intending to construct a NSIP must obtain 

‘development consent’. The National Infrastructure Directorate of the Planning Inspectorate 

receives and examines applications for development consent. 

The current projects for the MWWFRS area include: 

• Brechfa Forest Connection - installation of a 132kV electric line of 28.6km (approximately 

25.3km above ground and 3.3km below ground), connecting the consented Brechfa Forest 

West Wind Farm to an existing overhead line near Llandyfaelog. 

• Brechfa Forest Wind Farm - The proposed development comprises the construction and 

operation of 28 wind turbine generators of up to 145 metres in height and other infrastructure 

integral to the construction and/or operation of the wind farm. The wind farm will have an 

installed capacity of between 56 and 84 megawatts. A full list of the works comprised in 

the proposed wind farm can be found at Schedule 1 of the draft Development Consent 

Order. Additional Note: The developer has also proposed a smaller wind farm within the 

Brechfa forest known as Brechfa east. As the proposal is below the threshold for a nationally 

significant infrastructure project, the application will be submitted to the local authority. 

• Internal Power Generation Enhancement for Port Talbot Steelworks - Enhancement of existing 

95.7 Mega Watt electrical (MWe) power station and installation of two new boilers (nominally 

164 Mega Watt Thermal (MWth)) and two turbines (nominally 65 Mega Watt Electrical (MWe)) 

each. 

• Tidal Lagoon Swansea Bay - Tidal lagoon and associated electricity generating infrastructure 

with a nominal capacity of 240MW. 

• Mynydd y Gwynt Wind Farm - Construction of windfarm east of Aberystwyth within Powys 

Council local authority boundary. Up to 27 turbines with up to 81-89.1 MW generating 

capacity. Additional works: substation and control building, monitoring mast, electrical cables, 

new access tracks and widening existing tracks. 

• Mid Wales Electricity Connection (N Grid) - Construction of a new 400 kV electricity 

connection between Shropshire and Powys. 

• Abergelli Power - Gas-fired peaking plant and connection infrastructure with a capacity of up 

to 299 MW. Located north of Swansea (north of M4, Junction 46) in the City and County of 

Swansea, approximately 1 km south-east of Felindre, 750 m south-west of Llwyncelyn and 1.5 

km north of Llangyfelach. 


8. Organisational 

8.1. CFOA 

The Chief Fire Officers’ Association (CFOA) brings together all fire and rescue services (FRSs) 

across the country to promote the effectiveness of the service as whole for the benefit of 

communities across the country. 

8.1.1. National Operational Guidance 

The National Operational Guidance Programme (NOGP) produces best practice operational 

guidance designed to support the development of local operational policies and procedures 

and is based on the hazards encountered at incidents, the control measures that can be used to 

manage them and the actions needed to carry them out. 

The National Operational Guidance Programme is a partnership between the Local Government 

Association (LGA), the Chief Fire Officers’ Association (CFOA) the Department for Communities 

and Local Government’s Chief Fire and Rescue Adviser (CFRA) and the London Fire Brigade. 

The Programme is working with fire services and other experts across the country to deliver new 

online operational guidance that is consistent, easily accessible and can be quickly revised and 

updated if necessary. 

8.2. Medical Response 

The national debate surrounding the Fire and Rescue Service (FRS) and their role as a ‘health 

asset’ is an ongoing discussion, with a National Joint Council (NJC) trial for FRS medical response 

currently in place across many UK FRS. 

A large part of this debate revolves around Co-Responding, and the wider Emergency 

Medical Response, which is at present, a non statutory function for the FRS, albeit the Welsh 

Government’s National Framework for Wales 2016, pays cognisance to the work FRS undertake 

in supporting the Welsh Ambulance Service NHS Trust (WAST). 

“In some parts of Wales, FRA staff provide some forms of emergency medical response and/or 

support the Welsh Ambulance Service NHS Trust (“WAST”), this has demonstrated the potential 

to provide a better service to patients and to relieve burdens on WAST. FRAs should continue to 

work with WAST and other NHS bodies to develop and implement such programmes, and the 

Welsh Government will support this at the strategic level.” (National Framework, 2016). 

The trials vary from Service to Service, pre-dominantly determined by their current level of 

provision i.e. some are engaging with Co-responding for the first time whilst others are conducting 

joint ambulance conveyancing projects. The trial has recently been extended until February 2017 

with the data collected expecting to form part of a NJC commissioned report. 

It is noticeable on a UK wide scale that Service’s that are undertaking these type of activities 

are seeing a rise in call rate activity, with Co-Responding and emergency medical response now 

making up to 45% of the total number of incidents attended in some rural Services. 

44 


8.3. National Issues Committee/All Wales 

The three Welsh Fire and Rescue Services have come together to rise to the challenge 

currently facing so many public sector organisations - how to achieve financial savings without 

compromising on levels of service. This approach is via the National Issues Committee 

established to actively promote and enable collaboration in the Fire and Rescue Services in 

Wales. Key collaborative areas have been identified as potential opportunities to meet these 

challenges. These include: 

• Community Risk Reduction. 

• Training and Development. 

• Information & Communications Technology. 

• Business Continuity. 

• Operations. 

• Control Room. 

• Fleet and Transport. 

• Procurement. 

• Human Resources. 

• Health & Safety and. 

• Common & Specialist Delivery. 

Delivery plans for these 11 NIC work streams have been developed and are currently under 

review. The plans vary in length from one financial year to three depending on the individual work 

streams. 

8.4. Public Service Boards 

The Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 establishes statutory Public Service 

Boards (PSBs) which will replace the voluntary Local Service Boards in each local authority area 

in Wales. Mid and West Wales Fire and Rescue Authority is a statutory member of each Public 

Service Board in the six local authority within the service area. 

The Act specifies the individuals who represent each statutory member of the Board. For the 

FRA’s the specified individual is the Chair of the Fire Authority, the Chief Fire Officer or both. 

However, a statutory member is able to designate an individual from the Authority’s executive 

team to represent them. 

Each PSB must prepare and publish a Local Well-being plan. The Board must decide how to 

resource its function with the Local authority providing administrative support to the PSB and, 

each board is able to establish sub-groups to support it in undertaking its functions. 


9. Bibliography / Reference Data Sources 

46 



Service Review Team 

Strategic Assessment 

& Service Review 

48 

www.mawwfire.gov.uk

JR0234 - Strategic Assesment & Service Review

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