Evaluation of the effects of climate change on meteorological and hydrological parameters using climatic models and Mann – Kendall test (case study: Urmia Lake)

J. Bio. & Env. Sci. 2014
Conclusion
In this research, <strong>the</strong> effect <strong>of</strong> <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> on
meteorological and hydrological parameters was
predicted in for period 2010-2100 Urmia Lake
watershed. In this regard, statistical period <strong>of</strong> 1961-
2001 was considered as mutual statistical period
considering statistical downscaled models and index
meteorology stations to use HADCM3 model, and
temperature estimation for <strong>the</strong> period 2010-2100 was
considered under scenario A2. Then, data production
and downscaling was done in station scale in <strong>the</strong>
prediction period 2010-2100 using statistical
downscaled model SDSM. After that, artificial neural
network was used for precipitation-run<strong>of</strong>f model. The
results show that:
1) Although, <strong>climate</strong> <strong>change</strong> has no effect on <strong>the</strong> rivers
run<strong>of</strong>f until 2100 in Urmia Lake watershed, it can
<strong>change</strong> monthly distribution <strong>of</strong> discharge in this
period as an aggravating factor along with <strong>the</strong> factors
<strong>of</strong> <strong>change</strong> in ecosystem (dam construction),
uncontrolled extraction <strong>of</strong> groundwater,
inappropriate irrigation methods, etc.
2) Predicted temperature values show that,
temperature has increased in Tabriz station and it
slightly decreases in Urmia station.
3) Predicted precipitation values show that, <strong>the</strong>
amount <strong>of</strong> precipitation decreases in all <strong>the</strong> index
synoptic stations.
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