NORDLYS PLAN EDIT JAN 2017

7 Financial Plan
7.1 Exploitation Plan
Nordlys started trading in the autumn of 2015. The general agent (Fairtransport Shipping
B.V.) has forecasted the costs for Nordlys based on experience from exploitation
of the Tres Hombres. On the revenue side, forecasting the income is always difficult in
an emerging niche-market, what sailing cargo transport still is. Since trading distances
are slightly lower than Tres Hombres her routes, we decided to calculate with a
higher cargo fee than paid to Tres Hombres. The trainee fees we ask for are comparable
to the Tres Hombres, but still low compared to the fees charged in the general
charter market. To forecast the amount of cargo carried and the amount of berths for
trainees filled, we had the advantage we could have a close look at the historical data
of the past years of exploitation of Tres Hombres. Here we saw a clear pattern of a
growing demand throughout the first three years of operation. Analyzing this growth
of demand we found out that this followed closely the growing popularity of the sailing
cargo movement. With current circumstances: new players in the market, more
companies bound to sustainability and a global shift towards fair business, we can
expect another raise of interest in products carried by sailing vessel. This is the reason
we decided to make a financial plan outlining an estimation of the numbers for the
years 2017, 2018 and 2019.
The below revenue calculations are depending on the number of available sailing
days, miles covered carrying cargoes and trainees, and the capacity utilization. Because
refit periods will be shorter throughout the years, every year the sailing season can
be extended. With longer sailing seasons more miles can be covered, increasing revenue.
On the other side with the rising popularity of the Nordlys as another ambassador
for Fairtransport, combined with the rise of popularity of the sailing cargo ship
market as a whole, the cargo capacity and number of berths will be better utilized. To
keep a certain amount of safety in the calculations we decided to calculate the utilization
percentage rather low. This means we begin with the cargo utilization at 50% in
2017, gradually rising to 60% in 2019. For the trainee utilization we have calculated a
faster growth in revenue, since it is a more established "industry": starting in 2017
with 75% moving to a comfortable ceiling of 85% in 2019. Mostly due to the extensive
refit costs we prepare for a slight loss in 2017, almost break-even in 2018 and a profit
in 2019.
- 11 -