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Metal Tiger’s Botswana arbitrage<br />
With the MOD Resources (AU:MOD) share price having rocketed 350% in the<br />
past year, many investors will be thinking they have missed the chance to grab a<br />
cheap piece of the T3 copper-silver action in Botswana, of which the company<br />
owns 70%.<br />
• Daniel Gleeson<br />
• 28 Mar 2017<br />
• 4:29<br />
• Feature<br />
A core asset: Metal Tiger is trying to highlight its main asset – the 30% stake in the T3<br />
copper-silver project<br />
These same investors may want to consider the share price of the owner of the<br />
remaining 30% interest in T3, Metal Tiger (LN:MTR). The London-listed<br />
investment entity, which also owns close to 5% of MOD, has not had the same<br />
fortune. Its share price is down 6% over the same timeframe.<br />
Yes, its reduced exposure to the burgeoning project validates a discount. Yes,<br />
Metal Tiger has other interests outside of Botswana. And, yes, it is an investment<br />
company with little operational control, and a £23 million (US$28.96 million)<br />
market capitalisation inhibiting its ability to raise masses of cash, but there is still<br />
an arbitrage opportunity to be snapped up.<br />
Cognisant of this, the newly-installed management of Metal Tiger is doing<br />
everything it can to make such a selling point even more appealing.
First, the company is making plans to spin-off its interests in polymetallic assets<br />
in Thailand. It has already completed a pre-initial public offering of shares in<br />
Kemco <strong>Mining</strong> to raise £514,500 (US$641,793) and hopes to carry out the full<br />
IPO in the June quarter.<br />
Second, it has ceased joint venture activities with Kibo <strong>Mining</strong> (LN:KIBO) in<br />
Tanzania, while declaring its interests in projects in Spain and Russia as noncore.<br />
Third, it has completed the allocation of investment funds in its asset-trading arm<br />
and is looking to exit its investments in metal projects – bar its MOD holding – to<br />
concentrate on its core business.<br />
Under the stewardship of chief executive Michael McNeilly, the company has<br />
simplified its structure and, sensibly, emphasised its most attractive assets: the<br />
30% stake in T3.<br />
If getting an immediate piece of the high-grade resource – 350,000t of copper<br />
and 14 million ounces of silver at 1.24% Cu and 15.7g/t Ag – and the longerdated<br />
potential of the 14 exploration licences in Botswana is not enough to lure<br />
investors in, Metal Tiger’s Thai sweetener could seal it.<br />
The Kemco <strong>Mining</strong> spin-off will see Metal Tiger shareholders retain a toehold in<br />
the company operating both its Song To and Boh Yai silver-lead-zinc assets in<br />
western Thailand. Having previously been mined until 2002, the company is<br />
confident they can can be restarted by the end of 2018 for a modest amount of<br />
cash.<br />
Metal Tiger’s plan is to use dividends from Kemco to pay its way at T3. In this<br />
respect, it’s worth taking a look at the 2013 preliminary economic assessment on<br />
the Thai assets.<br />
This study, non-compliant as far as AIM goes, envisaged restarting the<br />
operations for US$12.6 million in return for a post-tax net present value (7.5%<br />
discount) of US$69.6 million. There is a ‘but’. These economics factor in a US$30<br />
per ounce silver price (US$17.86/oz today). They are also based on zinc and<br />
lead prices of US$0.95 per pound and US$1/Ib, respectively (US$1.27/Ib and<br />
US$1.06/Ib, currently).
A competent person’s report, with a resource update, is expected next quarter<br />
and should allay any fears about the project being economically feasible, while<br />
the company’s intention to have two Thai directors on the board of Kemco, plus<br />
the fact Song To and Boh Yai both operated before, should considerably improve<br />
the chances of the projects getting licences to operate.<br />
A dividend from Kemco, on top of the £1.29 million Metal Tiger had in the bank as<br />
of August 22, isn’t likely to meet the 30% cash call that could come from a T3<br />
build – estimated at A$40.5 million (US$30.85 million) in the 2016 scoping<br />
study – but it gives conviction to McNeilly’s claim the company is not out for a<br />
“quick buck”.<br />
“We’re focused on getting to the definitive feasibility study stage and then we<br />
have to take a view of the financing environment,” he told <strong>Mining</strong> <strong>Journal</strong>.<br />
Still, McNeilly knows the company would have no option but to consider a<br />
significant offer should one be made for its Botswana project stake.<br />
If the exploration keeps going as it has – MOD recently intersected a substantial<br />
72.6m copper zone grading 1.5% Cu and 27g/t Ag directly beneath the existing<br />
T3 resource – there is every chance of this happening.<br />
This arbitrage will not stay open forever.