Hazard Profile of Myanmar - Asian Disaster Preparedness Center

for the last major earthquake in this segment is 800±200 years. Also, we believed that
there were aseismic movements along the northern Rakhine especially around
Kyaukpyu area thus, the possibility of strain accumulation sufficient for large
earthquake is low.
• Possibility of strong and major earthquakes along the Sagaing Fault is considerable.
As already described in the text, two important segments of the fault (Taungoo - Bago
and Sagaing – Tagaung) displayed no seismic activity for more than half a century.
GPS observations of the French-Myanmar team showed strain loading in the
Mandalay area (Vigny et al., 2003). Recently, active fault study project in Bago area
detected possibility of strain loading in the offset Payagyi ancient city wall to a
certain extent.
• Seismic activity of Kyaukkyan – Papun Fault is considerable but the movement along
is too much slower than that of the Sagaing Fault. Though the largest magnitude
earthquake of Myanmar occurred in 1912, the apparent recurrence interval seems to
be more than 200 years (known by checking geomorphic features between Lawksauk
and Inlay Lake by our researchers).
• Possibility of moderate to strong earthquakes in central Myanmar basin, especially
along the transpressional faults is still high. Strong earthquakes in every two decades
are not negligible at least two thrust fault lines.
4.7 Looking Forward
Myanmar is an earthquake-prone country due to its location in the active Alpide
seismotectonic belt, the young Alpine-Himalayan-Sumatran orogenic belt. Myanmar forms a
local segment, the Myanmar arc, of this major arc commonly referred to as the Sunda arc.
The arc has two important tectonic features- earthquake sources, one within Myanmar and
the other in her neighbourhood to the west. These are the active Sagaing fault, trending
north – south across the entire length of central Myanmar, and the Sunda subduction
megathrust zone running through off-shore southwest and west of the Myanmar coast and
on-land to the west and northwest of Myanmar. The Sagaing Fault passes through the most
populated areas of Myanmar where large cities have been built, active fault studies with
characterization of earthquake response spectrum on engineering structures and design code
for buildings are necessary.
It is suggested that the following activities should be undertaken to mitigate the seismic
risks.
• Continuation, extension, and expansion of the neotectonic and active fault studies
along the Sagaing, Kyaukkyan and Kabaw faults.
Hazard profile of Myanmar
- 36 -