Jakob Larson - Summer Research - 2015
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“Quantifying the Impact of Multi-<br />
Annual Drought on California’s<br />
Agricultural Industry”<br />
<strong>Jakob</strong> P. <strong>Larson</strong> – Class of 2017 –<br />
<strong>2015</strong> <strong>Summer</strong> Science <strong>Research</strong><br />
Program
California is an Agriculture Powerhouse<br />
• 77,900 farms and ranches in<br />
2014<br />
• Exported $46.4 billion<br />
worth of ag products<br />
• The $46.4 billion resembles<br />
14.7% of the Nation’s<br />
agriculture<br />
http://www.cdfa.ca.gov/statistics/<br />
http://nassgeodata.gmu.edu/CropScape/
0.589<br />
2.2<br />
0.01<br />
0.001<br />
Global Water Availability<br />
Salt Water<br />
Glaciers/Icecaps<br />
Ground Water<br />
97.2<br />
Surface Water<br />
Water Vapor
Los<br />
Angeles<br />
Times,<br />
August<br />
2014<br />
New York<br />
Times,<br />
July 2014<br />
Los Angeles<br />
Times, July<br />
2014<br />
Redlands<br />
Daily, January<br />
2014
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/08/current-reservoir-conditionsin-california/
Folsom Lake<br />
Lake Oroville<br />
https://www.google.com/search?q=lake+oroville+before+and+after&rlz=1C1CHFX_en<br />
US552US552&espv=2&biw=1366&bih=643&source=lnms&tbm=isch&sa=X&ved=0CAY<br />
Q_AUoAWoVChMIornx4PvZxgIV0TOICh2zDQvo#imgrc=WJSm4OGd4FP-uM%3A<br />
http://www.citylab.com/work/2014/02/californias-terrible-drought-explained-one-image/8497/
Controls On Precipitation<br />
El Nino 1997-1998 (Dec.-Feb.)<br />
La Nina 2010-2011 (Dec.-Feb.)
Multi-Annual Drought in Our Future?<br />
El Nino<br />
Conditions<br />
…?<br />
La Nina Conditions<br />
http://www.coolingnews.com/debunk-global-warming-minutes.html
<strong>Research</strong> Questions<br />
• If California’s Water Supply is out of balance, how<br />
much water is being lost each year and where is this<br />
effect most severe?<br />
• A huge amount of our water is devoted to<br />
agriculture, can we identify which crops are the<br />
most water intensive and which are the least?<br />
• Can we reduce California’s water usage to return the<br />
Water Balance equation to a state of equilibrium?
Water Balance Model<br />
• Inflow – Outflow = ΔS<br />
• Inflows: Moisture Supply<br />
▫ Precipitation<br />
▫ Soil Moisture Storage<br />
• Outflows: Moisture Demand<br />
▫ Potential Evapotranspiration<br />
• Temperature + Radiation
Model Inputs (Inflows)<br />
Precipitation (Nov. 2014)<br />
Soil Moisture
Model Inputs (Outflows)<br />
*(P + Previous Year’s<br />
Storage) – ET = ΔS<br />
Temperature<br />
Radiation
Equation<br />
• Inputs = Outputs + (change in) S<br />
• P + Q(in) + GW(in) = E + Q(out) + GW(out) +<br />
(change in) S<br />
• P – E + Q(in) –Q(out) + GW(in) –GW(out) +<br />
(change in) S<br />
• P – ET = (change in) S<br />
Q = Discharge/Flow<br />
GW = Groundwater<br />
*At large scales, Q and GW become<br />
negligible<br />
P = Precipitation<br />
ET = Evapotranspiration<br />
S = Storage
P<br />
ET<br />
Q(in)<br />
GW(in)<br />
S(Storage)<br />
Q(out)<br />
GW(out)<br />
*P – ET = ∆S
Agricultural (and crop) Water Usage<br />
• Calculate for individual crop Kc and ETc<br />
• Determine what crops are highly water intensive and<br />
propose substitutes<br />
• Economically compare substitutes to original crop to<br />
figure price differentials
What Are California’s Main Crops?<br />
Barley<br />
1%<br />
2014 Agriculture<br />
Oranges<br />
3%<br />
Pistachios<br />
Cotton 3%<br />
3%<br />
Tomatoes<br />
4%<br />
Walnuts<br />
5%<br />
Oats<br />
2%<br />
All Other<br />
Crops<br />
10%<br />
Alfalfa<br />
16%<br />
Almonds<br />
15%<br />
Other Hay/Non<br />
Alfalfa<br />
6%<br />
Rice<br />
6%<br />
Corn<br />
6%<br />
Grapes<br />
14%<br />
Wheat<br />
6%
How Much Water Do These Crops Use?<br />
• Evapotranspiration (ET) = E + T<br />
• Crop water need ~f(ETc)<br />
http://water.usgs.gov/edu/watercycleeva<br />
potranspiration.html
Calculating Crop ET<br />
= ET<br />
constant/control<br />
= ET of<br />
specific crop<br />
http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2022e/s2<br />
022e07.htm#3.3.2%20crop%20water%<br />
20need%20calculation%20example
Calculated (weighted) Kc Values for selected major crops<br />
Total<br />
Initial stage<br />
Weighting<br />
factor<br />
Kc Initial<br />
Kc initial<br />
weighted<br />
Crop<br />
Development weighting<br />
stage factor<br />
Kc crop dev.<br />
stage<br />
Kc crop dev.<br />
weighted<br />
Weighting<br />
Mid season stage factor<br />
Kc mid season<br />
initial<br />
Kc mid season<br />
weighted<br />
Late season<br />
stage<br />
Weighting<br />
factor<br />
Kc late season<br />
initial<br />
Kc late season<br />
weighted<br />
Barley/Oats/Wh<br />
eat 120 15 0.13 0.35 0.04 25.00 0.21 0.75 0.16 50.00 0.42 1.15 0.48 30.00 0.25 0.45 0.11<br />
150 15 0.10 0.35 0.04 30.00 0.20 0.75 0.15 65.00 0.43 1.15 0.50 40.00 0.27 0.45 0.12<br />
Bean/dry 95 15 0.16 0.35 0.06 25.00 0.26 0.70 0.18 35.00 0.37 1.10 0.41 20.00 0.21 0.30 0.06<br />
110 20 0.18 0.35 0.06 30.00 0.27 0.70 0.19 40.00 0.36 1.10 0.40 20.00 0.18 0.30 0.05<br />
Cabbage 120 20 0.17 0.45 0.08 25.00 0.21 0.75 0.16 60.00 0.50 1.05 0.53 15.00 0.13 0.90 0.11<br />
140 25 0.18 0.45 0.08 30.00 0.21 0.75 0.16 65.00 0.46 1.05 0.49 20.00 0.14 0.90 0.13<br />
Cotton/Flax 180 30 0.17 0.45 0.08 50.00 0.28 0.75 0.21 55.00 0.31 1.15 0.35 45.00 0.25 0.75 0.19<br />
195 30 0.15 0.45 0.07 50.00 0.26 0.75 0.19 65.00 0.33 1.15 0.38 50.00 0.26 0.75 0.19<br />
ET corn = ET o x K corn<br />
Maize, grain 125 20 0.16 0.40 0.06 35.00 0.28 0.80 0.22 40.00 0.32 1.15 0.37 30.00 0.24 0.70 0.17<br />
180 30 0.17 0.40 0.07 50.00 0.28 0.80 0.22 60.00 0.33 1.15 0.38 40.00 0.22 0.70 0.16<br />
ET corn = 849.7 x 0.77<br />
ET corn = 650mm<br />
Millet 105 15 0.14 0.35 0.05 25.00 0.24 0.70 0.17 40.00 0.38 1.10 0.42 25.00 0.24 0.65 0.15<br />
140 20 0.14 0.35 0.05 30.00 0.21 0.70 0.15 55.00 0.39 1.10 0.43 35.00 0.25 0.65 0.16<br />
Onion/dry 150 15 0.10 0.50 0.05 25.00 0.17 0.75 0.13 70.00 0.47 1.05 0.49 40.00 0.27 0.85 0.23<br />
210 20 0.10 0.50 0.05 35.00 0.17 0.75 0.13 110.00 0.52 1.05 0.55 45.00 0.21 0.85 0.18<br />
Pea 90 15 0.17 0.45 0.08 25.00 0.28 0.80 0.22 35.00 0.39 1.15 0.45 15.00 0.17 1.05 0.18<br />
100 20 0.20 0.45 0.09 30.00 0.30 0.80 0.24 35.00 0.35 1.15 0.40 15.00 0.15 1.05 0.16<br />
Pepper 120 25 0.21 0.35 0.07 35.00 0.29 0.70 0.20 40.00 0.33 1.05 0.35 20.00 0.17 0.90 0.15<br />
210 30 0.14 0.35 0.05 40.00 0.19 0.70 0.13 110.00 0.52 1.05 0.55 30.00 0.14 0.90 0.13<br />
Potato 105 25 0.24 0.45 0.11 30.00 0.29 0.75 0.21 30.00 0.29 1.15 0.33 20.00 0.19 0.85 0.16<br />
145 30 0.21 0.45 0.09 35.00 0.24 0.75 0.18 50.00 0.34 1.15 0.40 30.00 0.21 0.85 0.18<br />
Sorghum 120 20 0.17 0.35 0.06 30.00 0.25 0.75 0.19 40.00 0.33 1.10 0.37 30.00 0.25 0.65 0.16<br />
130 20 0.15 0.35 0.05 35.00 0.27 0.75 0.20 45.00 0.35 1.10 0.38 30.00 0.23 0.65 0.15<br />
Sugarbeet 160 25 0.16 0.45 0.07 35.00 0.22 0.80 0.18 60.00 0.38 1.15 0.43 40.00 0.25 0.80 0.20<br />
230 45 0.20 0.45 0.09 65.00 0.28 0.80 0.23 80.00 0.35 1.15 0.40 40.00 0.17 0.80 0.14<br />
Sunflower 125 20 0.16 0.35 0.06 35.00 0.28 0.75 0.21 45.00 0.36 1.15 0.41 25.00 0.20 0.55 0.11<br />
130 25 0.19 0.35 0.07 35.00 0.27 0.75 0.20 45.00 0.35 1.15 0.40 25.00 0.19 0.55 0.11<br />
Tomato http://www.fao.org/docrep/s2022e/s2022e07.htm#3.3.2%20crop%20water%20need%20calcula<br />
135 30 0.22 0.35 0.08 40.00 0.30 0.75 0.22 40.00 0.30 1.10 0.33 25.00 0.19 0.90 0.17<br />
tion%20example<br />
180 35 0.19 0.35 0.07 45.00 0.25 0.75 0.19 70.00 0.39 1.10 0.43 30.00 0.17 0.90 0.15
Sunflower<br />
Cotton/Flax<br />
Bean/dry<br />
Potato<br />
Pepper<br />
Peas<br />
Sorghum<br />
Maize, grain<br />
Barley/Oats/Wheat<br />
Tomato<br />
Millet<br />
Sugarbeet<br />
Cabbage<br />
Onion/dry<br />
Barley/Oats/Wheat<br />
Maize, grain<br />
Cotton/Flax<br />
Tomato<br />
Sunflower<br />
Sorghum<br />
Sugarbeet<br />
Onion/dry<br />
Potato<br />
Bean/dry<br />
Peas<br />
Pepper<br />
Cabbage<br />
Millet<br />
Water Use By Crop<br />
0.0250<br />
0.0200<br />
0.0150<br />
0.0100<br />
0.0050<br />
0.0000<br />
Crop ET (ft/day)<br />
Total Water Needed Statewide (ft/year)<br />
1,400,000.00<br />
1,200,000.00<br />
1,000,000.00<br />
800,000.00<br />
600,000.00<br />
400,000.00<br />
200,000.00<br />
-<br />
Water<br />
Needed<br />
(ft/day)<br />
Water Needed<br />
(ft/year)
Barley/Oats/Wheat<br />
Maize, grain<br />
Cotton/Flax<br />
Tomato<br />
Sunflower<br />
Sorghum<br />
Sugarbeet<br />
Onion/dry<br />
Potato<br />
Bean/dry<br />
Peas<br />
Pepper<br />
Cabbage<br />
Millet<br />
Water Costs For Select Crops<br />
Statewide (2014)<br />
$2,500,000,000.00<br />
2014 State Water Costs Per Crop<br />
$2,000,000,000.00<br />
$1,500,000,000.00<br />
$1,000,000,000.00<br />
$500,000,000.00<br />
$-<br />
2014 State Water Costs Per<br />
Crop
Substitutes For Corn<br />
Crop Uses Growing<br />
Season<br />
Length<br />
(average)<br />
ET (ft) Per<br />
Day<br />
ET (mm)<br />
Per Season<br />
Number of<br />
Harvests<br />
(yearly)<br />
Corn<br />
Sorghum<br />
Livestock feed,<br />
flour, sillage<br />
(human<br />
consumption),<br />
corn syrup,<br />
ethanol<br />
Cereals, crop<br />
rotations,<br />
flour<br />
alternatives<br />
152.5 0.0140 650 1<br />
125 0.0144 550 1-2<br />
Millet<br />
Bird seed,<br />
crop rotations<br />
122.5 0.0114 425 2+ (yearround)
700.50<br />
600.50<br />
500.50<br />
Water Used (billion gallons)<br />
400.50<br />
300.50<br />
200.50<br />
Corn<br />
Millet<br />
Sorghum<br />
100.50<br />
0.50<br />
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Cost of Water (Billion Dollars)<br />
3.00<br />
2.50<br />
2.00<br />
1.50<br />
Corn<br />
Millet<br />
Sorghum<br />
1.00<br />
0.50<br />
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Money Saved in Irrigation If<br />
Substituted*<br />
Year Acres of Corn Sorghum Millet<br />
2014 481,808.3 $242,091,113.3 $544,700,452.3<br />
2013 845,094.8 $424,629,341.1 $955,408,032.1<br />
2012 593,882.4 $298,402,150.7 $671,401,869.7<br />
2011 617,516 $310,277,089.4 $698,120,363.5<br />
2010 537,498.5 $270,071,496.3 $607,658,179.2<br />
2009 370,216.5 $186,018,982.6 $418,540,859.7<br />
2008 610,355.5 $306,679,224.5 $690,025,203.4<br />
2007 556,461.2 $279,599,494.6 $629,096,080.4<br />
Total 4,612,833.2 $2,317,768,892 $5,214,951,040
Conclusions<br />
• If California’s Water Supply is out of balance, how much water is being lost<br />
each year and where is this effect most severe?<br />
• A: 746 mm of water was lost from California in 2014 with higher rates in<br />
Southern California<br />
• A huge amount of our water is devoted to agriculture, can we identify which<br />
crops are the most water intensive and which are the least?<br />
• A: Yes, Evapotranspiration rate of corn exceeds that of comparable grains<br />
(millet/sorghum) as well as other California crops.<br />
• Can we reduce California’s water usage to return the Water Balance<br />
equation to a state of equilibrium?<br />
• A: Yes, changes in crop choices can lead to a significant reduction in water<br />
usage and spending.
Acknowledgements<br />
• Dr. Hillary Jenkins<br />
• University of Redlands - Environmental Studies,<br />
Spatial Studies, Business, and Economics<br />
Departments<br />
• University of Redlands <strong>Summer</strong> Science<br />
Program<br />
• California Department of Water Resources<br />
• California Bureau of Reclamation<br />
• Dr Harvil, Ms. Ifft, Dr. & Mrs. Nimmo
Questions?
Controls on California’s Water Supply<br />
El Nino:<br />
• Slackening of the<br />
Trade Winds<br />
• Anomalous<br />
Warming in the<br />
Eastern<br />
Equatorial Pacific<br />
• Low Pressure in<br />
the North-<br />
Eastern Pacific<br />
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml
Controls on California’s Water Supply<br />
La Nina:<br />
• Strengthening of the<br />
Trade Winds<br />
• Cooling in the<br />
Eastern Equatorial<br />
Pacific<br />
• High Pressure Wall<br />
in the North-Eastern<br />
Pacific<br />
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensocycle/nawinter.shtml
El Nino: A Positive<br />
Precipitation Control<br />
For California<br />
This map displays the<br />
precipitation sum of the<br />
months of:<br />
December,1997<br />
January, 1998<br />
February, 1998<br />
The 1997-1998 year was a<br />
year typical of an El Nino
How Much Water Do We Consume?<br />
1200<br />
1000<br />
Agriculture Items and Their Water Use (gallons)<br />
1000<br />
800<br />
600<br />
400<br />
330<br />
200<br />
0<br />
8 14 36 48<br />
1 Tomato 1 Orange Pasta (2 oz) Milk (8 fl<br />
oz)<br />
Chicken 8<br />
oz)<br />
*1 pair of Jeans : 1800<br />
1 Sunday Newspaper: 150<br />
1 average sized domestic car (with tires): 39,000<br />
1 Thanksgiving dinner for 8: 48,000<br />
120<br />
1 egg 1 two lb<br />
loaf of<br />
wheat<br />
bread<br />
1.1<br />
1 Almond
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