Texas LAND Spring 2015

In my youth, I listened to a haunting tune that suggested
a collision with reality. “Those Were the Days,” by Mary Hopkin
released on the Beatles Apple label. “Those were the days,
my friend. We thought they’d never end. We’d sing and dance
forever and a day. We’d live the life we choose. We’d fight
and never lose! Those were the days….” Then Mary struck a
sobering obstruction and things changed. As 2014 progressed,
land market participants had to feel like Mary. The year began
with expansion in prices and indeed finished with a substantial
percentage increase, rising 9 percent to an all time high of
$2,354 per acre by the end of the trading year a 33 percent
expansion from 2009.
Expansion continued on all fronts early in the year. Then
something happened. Collapsing oil prices injected a sobering
unwelcome obstruction to the continuing party. The fourth
quarter presided over rising uncertainty with farmland investors
anticipating years of weakened commodity prices and oil-based
recreational buyers deciding to put purchase plans on hold.
MARKET REPORT
UNCERTAINTY, THY NAME IS OIL!
That jolt did little to derail
another banner year for land BY CHARLES E. GILLILAND
prices, but thoughts now have
turned to the existential question:
will oil prices recover or continue
to erode. How far will they fall?
How fast will they recover? Who
is to blame? And what does this mean for the Texas economy
and Texas land prices.
Studies suggest that overall land prices eventually follow
trends in oil prices in Texas, but not for a year or two. So where
does that leave land market participants? Some anticipate
a quick resolution to weakened oil prices, not so much for
agricultural commodities. Some foresee a prolonged decline
in the face of expanding worldwide supplies of oil. No serious
observer seems to have a defensible solution. So, as the year
begins, we have seen a banner year in 2014, but no one can
foresee where we will be in the next six months.
TOP 5 MOST ACTIVE COUNTIES
COUNTY AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE ACRES
1 Henderson $349,492.48 42.19
2 Llano $447,375.56 49.06
3 Burnet $635,710.28 77.45
4 Brown $387,817.05 89.74
5 Gillespie $882,610.93 64.82
COUNTY AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE ACRES
1 Llano $446,381.09 55.37
2 Kerr $1,024,330.18 148.60
3 Burnet $667,435.40 77.32
4 Gillespie $904,223.16 65.45
5 Henderson $358,304.42 40.16
COUNTY AVERAGE PRICE AVERAGE ACRES
1 Llano $468,698.01 57.48
2 Bandera $627,492.28 68.14
3 Gillespie $947,397.11 69.39
4 Kerr $1,016,281.19 147.47
5 Burnet $652,220.03 68.55
LANDSOFTEXASMAGAZINE.COM
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