Khwaish Oct 2015

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Speaking Softly! Can Singapore Survive? Mr Malminderjit Singh Singapore’s 50th anniversary presents an opportunity to all of us to reflect on the nation’s past tribulations and achievements. While we revel in the undoubted economic miracle that Singapore has come to be, it is opportune to also consider Singapore’s future, which inevitably leads to the often ask apocalyptic question – Can Singapore survive? I was recently asked to give my thoughts on this topic at a youth symposium and I thought it useful to also share some of these perspectives with our readers to kindle some thoughts on the existential future of Singapore. Back to the question – “Can Singapore Survive?” Singapore is unique in the sense that it has served all of three functions – a city with vibrant economic opportunities while being a sovereign state and a young nation with common values, ideals and aspirations. It appears unlikely to me that Singapore’s sovereign existence will be under any real threat in the future, if present circumstances remain. With a strong defence as a deterrent, Singapore’s place and relations in the global networks also strengthen its sovereign position. However, that could change and we should not take these factors for granted. For one, defence spending in Southeast Asia is the fastest in the world. According to a McKinsey report, Southeast Asia was the world’s second largest import market for defence between 1997 and 2012. While much of this may be to replace ageing fleets, we cannot discount that we have also seen a corresponding rise in aggression in the region. Naval aggression is one way in which this ambitious aggression has manifested, especially with Indonesia in recent times blowing up foreign illegal fishing boats in dramatic fashion and splashing reports and pictures of these attacks all over their media in a bid to flex their muscles. In this respect, Singapore’s position in global networks or its military deterrence’s ability to act as a protective layer for the country will depend on a number of factors. Let me focus on two, which, in my view are critical. The first is economics. There are hindrances to Singapore’s ability to remain as a dynamic and relevant economy and these warnings should not be taken lightly. There are several reasons for these concerns. One, much of our economic success in the past has been built on our ability to be nimble and restructure. By virtue of our resource constraints, we have often faced times when we were losing our competitiveness in our key industries. However, each time that happened, we restructured and moved up the value chain. I believe though that we have neared the end of the road in terms of that strategy. Firstly, our business costs have hit dangerous levels and, secondly, other countries are also catching up quickly, reducing the room for us to manoeuvre in moving higher up the value chain. In this scenario, our economic strategy hinges primarily on productivity. However, national efforts to boost productivity have not quite taken off. In fact, our productivity growth has declined for three consecutive years. With low population growth, low immigration levels, low 12 <strong>Khwaish</strong>
productivity and high business costs, we face a serious prospect of a stagnating economy. This high-cost, low-productivity scenario that we may slip into has plagued other developed economies around the world. However, Singapore, being a small and vulnerable economy, may come out worse than others in the same boat. Much will depend on national skills upgrading plans to make sure our labour productivity increases substantially. This brings me to my next point about identity. There are two issues here. The first is that stagnating economic growth may mean that there will be a reduction of opportunities for Singaporeans in the future. We may be forced to look out of Singapore for more dynamic and vibrant opportunities – be these in the workforce or in business. Tagged to this point is social mobility. It could be argued that for much of the 50 years of the nation’s history, the identity of being Singaporean was driven by economic development where, along with the country’s progress, citizens also moved up the social ladder as rapidly in their lifetimes. There are considerable doubts though that future generations of Singaporeans can see those levels of social mobility purely because they are already starting from a much higher base. Thus, if because of these factors, more Singaporeans move away for economic opportunities, will their sense of belonging and rootedness to Singapore be impacted? Will they still want to come back and serve in our national service and forces? If no, then this immediately affects our military deterrence. If our economy becomes less dynamic and relevant, will we still feature prominently in global networks? Will we still have global partners who will stand up for us should there be a perceived threat to our sovereignty? So while we may still exist as a sovereign state, whether we can continue being a dynamic city and a nation of hope faces a much bigger hurdle. Mr Malminderjit Singh is the Chief Executive Officer at the Singapore Indian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. He is also the President of YSA. The views presented in this article are personal and do not necessarily reflect those of YSA. Twelfth ‘Racial Harmony’ Football Tournament Tournament Join us in promoting racial harmony and understanding through fun and sports! YSA is organising its 12th ‘Racial Harmony’ 4-a-side football tournament in February/March 2016. There will be five categories – Open, Veteran (45 years and above), Ladies, Youth (15 years and below) and Junior (12 years and below). For enquiries, please contact Mr Nirmal Singh at 94570926/nimz@khalsa.com or Mr Kulwant Singh at 90265910/redkul@gmail.com. Do look out for more details which will be out soon! <strong>Khwaish</strong> 13
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Khwaish Oct 2015

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