CMES newsFall 12_3_web.pdf - Center for Middle Eastern Studies ...

notes from the chair
The Middle East is in turmoil!
We have been hearing this for
the past 18 months now and
arguably for the past six or nine
decades, depending on how we
define “turmoil .” But, regardless
of how far back we stretch our
perspective on the region, there
is no doubt that many countries
in the Middle East are witnessing profound change .
Dictators have been toppled in Tunisia, libya, Egypt,
and Yemen with each encountering a very different
fate . While Qaddafi was killed during the libyan
uprising and Mubarak received a life sentence after his
trial in Egypt, Ben Ali of Tunisia and Saleh of Yemen
escaped punishment with the latter even continuing
to pull strings behind the scenes in the affairs of his
country . And the real bloody battle to topple Assad
rages on in Syria with no immediate end in sight .
But just as the fate of toppled dictators differed
from one country to the next, so will the future of their
countries differ during this difficult transition period .
In Tunisia, long hailed as a haven for secularists
and liberals, the Islamist Ennahda party has come
to power and an Islamist parliament was elected .
Similarly in Egypt, an Islamist was elected president
and the undeclared alliance between the Muslim
Brotherhood and the ultraconservative Salafists
resulted in a parliament—now dissolved—fully
dominated by their parties: the Freedom & Justice
Party and the Al-Noor Party, respectively . Surprisingly
in libya, the Islamists failed to win a majority, while
in Yemen, they retained their same status under
a government that is seen by many as a partial
continuation of the past headed by a president who
served as vice president for the old regime .
One major sign of change, however, is the
changing role of the military in most of these
countries . In Tunisia, the military that went along with
the removal of Ben Ali remains in check . In Yemen
and libya, meanwhile the military still plays a part, but
it’s role remains subordinate to the tribal groupings
that have always existed in both of these counties .
Egypt deserves a special focus here because the
military had played a particularly dominant role in
political and economic life there . Even in Egypt,
however, it seems that the military’s powers are being
significantly curtailed . At the writing of these notes,
2 center for middle eastern studies
Islamist President Mohamed Morsi had reasserted
his authority by forcibly retiring the most important
generals in the Egyptian army, those who have ruled
the country since the fall of Hosni Mubarak . In their
place, Morsi appointed a younger general as Minister
of Defense and Chairman of the Supreme Council
of the Armed Forces (SCAF) . He also appointed a
civilian vice president for the first time in Egyptian
republican history . These may appear to be positive
developments but the reality is otherwise . Morsi’s
new chair of SCAF and his vice president, while not
affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood or its party, are
known to be very sympathetic to their Brotherhood’s
Islamization agenda . In addition, to control the media
and the judiciary, Morsi also appointed other Islamist
sympathizers to serve as Ministers of Information and
Justice and both acted quickly to shut down a cable
television channel and to prosecute the editor of a
major newspaper because of their critical remarks
about Morsi . With all of these appointments, Morsi
reversed a pledge to appoint women, Copts, and
other liberals to important posts in his government,
But just as the fate of the
toppled dictators differed
from one country to the
next, so will the future of
their countries during this
difficult transition period.
leaving many observers to conclude that the Muslim
Brotherhood, from which Morsi hails, will stop at
nothing to acquire total power in Egypt . To complicate
the situation further, Morsi annulled the constitutional
declaration issued by SCAF in the period after the
parliament was dissolved before his election . As a
result, he is the first president in Egyptian history
who has managed to formally hold both legislative
and executive powers with no checks and balances .
Again, this all may have been acceptable if he was
elected with a large margin and a mandate, but that
was not the case; his election divides Egyptians
to this day . Indeed, he may now be able to govern
by decree, unchallenged except for a judiciary and
notes contInued on pAge 17