Near Futurology - Richard Neish

Near Futurology 2017

Near Futurology
2017
Near Futurology
1

Introduction
Near Futurology is a study of technical innovation that
will influence human experiences within 18—24 months.
It is a grounded view of opportunities to be
leveraged and positive disruption to be enjoyed.
The near future will be deeply enhanced by machine
learning, artificial intelligence, robotics, augmented and
virtual reality. New materials, data and applications will
reframe our points of reference and cultural norms.
The fourth industrial revolution will have its victims.
The rise of the robot will further diminish the role of the
worker. The British Retail Consortium predict a third of
the UK’s 3 million shop jobs will disappear by 2025 through
increased automation, and The New York Post warn that
the checkout-busting Amazon Go will ‘automate American
workers out of existence’. What price progress?
Richard Neish,
Managing Director,
Dare
Our role in this journey is to humanise the technology
for the benefit of others. To harness advancement
and innovation to enrich the human experience.
2 Near Futurology

Contents
4
7
10
12
14
17
20
22
26
Transport
Retail
Sport
Entertainment
Financial Services
Food and Beverages
Connected Home
Health and Fitness
Dare
Near Futurology 3

Transport
Shared mobility, connected
services and feature upgrades
redefine the sector.
4 Near Futurology

Upgrades
The increasing speed of innovation, especially in
software-based systems, will soon allow the dynamic
upgrading of operating systems and features in cars.
Automated car trials
Much lauded driverless cars are planned to be trialled
on UK motorways in 2017. A £15 million ‘connected
corridor’ will also be built between London and
Dover to enable vehicles to communicate with
infrastructure and other vehicles as part of the trials.
Test and learn
Before we see the widespread adoption of automated
cars, we’ll be able to take learnings from the selfdriving
vehicles deployed in the closed environments
of distribution, warehousing, and manufacturing.
Clearpath Robotics have raised $30 million to expand
Otto, their automated self-regulating vehicles,
providing a wealth of operational data as they go.
Clearpath has been able to score large clients like GE
and John Deere, and attain safety ratings for its Otto
vehicles following in the footsteps of Kiva Systems
Inc., which Amazon acquired for $775 million in 2012,
and turned into its Amazon Robotics division.
Connected tech hubs
The UK Government is supporting the UK’s
burgeoning high-tech industry – centred on London,
Cambridge and Oxford – and that support is being
facilitated by the Department for Transport (DfT)
with plans for a fully integrated transport network.
But will the physical infrastructure, the shifting of
human beings from hub-to-hub, be outpaced by the
advancements in remote working technologies?
Faster
Engineering advances are reducing travel times between
cities as a staggering rate. HS1 brought speeds of 250
km/h to the UK, which is eclipsed by high-speed lines in
France, Spain and Germany that regularly reach 270 km/h,
and will in turn be dwarfed by HS2’s proposed 400 km/h.
If London remains the hub, the spokes just got a lot shorter.
Near Futurology — Transport 5

Ultra-long flights
Cheaper fuel and more efficient planes are encouraging
airlines to look again at ultra long haul flights, with
Emirates Airline starting the world’s longest (17 hours
non-stop) between Dubai and Auckland in November 2016.
Supersonic
Virgin and Boom, an aircraft production startup,
have unveiled the XB-1 Supersonic Demonstrator,
a prototype supersonic passenger airliner that will
begin flight testing in 2017. The aircraft will reportedly
provide 3.5-hour flights between New York and
London for the ‘affordable’ price of $5,000.
Alternative payment models
Changing consumption patterns should challenge
traditional pricing models. Why pay the same rate for
automotive insurance when your car is safely parked
on your driveway as when it’s on a motorway? Will we
see the widespread availability of pay-as-you-go car
insurance that links specific usage data to pricing?
Low battery, high cost
Dynamic pricing models will continue to be influenced
by practical considerations. Keith Chen, head of
economic research at Uber, claims that users are
willing to accept a ‘surge price’ up to 9.9 times the
normal rate, if their phone battery is about to die.
6 Near Futurology — Transport

Retail
The frictionless retail experience
tips the balance of power from
merchandising to deep learning.
Near Futurology
7

“We try to focus on transformative
innovation, that’s our mission, but
the pace of change is happening
so quickly, what we think will take
five years happens in two.”
John Vary, innovation manager, John Lewis
Instant gratification
Technology and advanced logistics are closing the gap
between the high street and digital retail experiences.
Amazon Prime and Google Express and shaping consumer
expectations towards instantaneous fulfilment and
incorporating their offerings into existing ecosystems
and payment systems, lowering the barrier to entry.
Virtual trial
In line with declining consumer patience, and growing
virtual and augmented technologies, we’ll see a shift
towards virtual fitting services that allow the trial of
a product remotely to reduce buyer error, increasing
the speed and lowering the costs of fulfilment.
Personalisation
The growing application of consumer data will continue
to refine mass products and environments to highly unique
and personalised experiences. Waitrose and Boots have
customisable loyalty schemes. Very can serve up to 1.2
million homepage variants tailored to your preferences.
In-store beacons can identify individual consumers and
change physical environments or share bespoke offers.
8 Near Futurology — Retail

The ‘How’ experience
There’s a heightened consciousness of the backstories,
ethics and sustainability of the brands and products we choose
to buy. Transparent brands that develop immersive virtual
provenance experiences (such as visiting a cocoa farm to
watch beans being picked and processed to make chocolate)
will increase brand trust and shorten the belief gap.
Facial recognition
Tesco continues to use facial-recognition technology in
petrol stations to identify shopper demographics and serve
relevant on-screen content. While Burberry uses shopper
identifying software that matches real-time surveillance
footage against the retailer’s VIP guest database, so store
assistants can give extra attention to potential big spenders.
Automation
AI and Bot assistance will permeate the retail sector. Much
as Google already identifies flights and travel arrangements
from inbox data, similar connections will be made to further
data sources to dynamically suggest and fulfil appropriate
recommendations (holiday clothing, festive gifting, recipes,
etc.). Increasingly, the opportunities will come to you.
Drone deliveries
Arguably more an innovation headline than a mass
logistics solution, we can’t ignore that retailers are
exploring drones as a means of delivering to customers.
Amazon has announced plans for a 30-minute delivery
service, and plans to implement drones in 2017 despite
restrictions from aviation authorities in the US. Google
has also conducted tests of delivery drones, getting in
early in a market that ‘could’ be worth billions, while
UPS, DHL, and even the Royal Mail are believed to
be trialling solutions.
An end to checkouts
In 2017 Amazon will open the doors to Amazon Go,
the frictionless, checkout-less game-changer. Computer
vision, sensor fusion and deep learning allow you to pick
from the shelves and walk straight out of the store.
Near Futurology — Retail
9

Sport
Automated insight and
enhanced fan experiences
powered by machine learning
and accessible data.
10 Near Futurology

Convergence of coverage and gaming
In-stadium panoramic camera systems will create fullyimmersive
virtual experiences overlaid with instant
biometric and diagnostic data for every player on the field.
5G
Fifth generation wireless will open deeper, more
immersive opportunities for the virtual consumption of
sport, broadening reach and revenue, while 5G will allow
virtual reality to be streamed at 60 frames per second.
Enhanced intelligence
Players, coaches, medical staff and viewers are going
to have access to a deeper level of data and real-time
intelligence than ever before. Micro-sensors from
professional sport will filter down to broader-reach
participation levels driving more refined, less-complex
data visualisation and interfaces linked to everyday devices.
Machine learning
In professional sport, increased data-points will require
faster, more complex analysis. AI and analytics modelling
will simulate game scenarios that self-evolve through
machine learning.
Micro betting
Broadening the volume of data will increase the spread
of micro-outcomes that can be traded by the bookies.
Blockchain rights management
Fluid, dynamic contracts – powered by blockchain rights
management databases, where every use of imagery or
highlights can be tracked and appropriated – will hugely
disrupt sporting commercial models. Alternative revenue
models will allow the original rights holders to be paid, while
sharing income with influencers, makers, and catalysts.
Operational diversification
Back in the analogue world, we’ll see a rise in the
re-appropriation of existing platforms to serve practical
needs. An Airbnb for season tickets, for example.
Near Futurology — Sport
11

Entertainment
The staggering pace of
innovation is being driven
by the threat of extinction.
12 Near Futurology

Trans-media people
Actress. Model. Songwriter. Writer. Editor. Publisher.
Producer. Art-Director. Entrepreneur. Maker-culture has
released the shackles and disrupted our cultural labels.
Trans-media programming
Key cultural entertainment properties like Game
of Thrones and the Marvel franchise are becoming
trans-media experiences that span cinema,
television, gaming, products, and content.
Data-led commissioning
Netflix knows with a high degree of certainty that specific
groups, or audiences, within its user base like to watch
specific types of dramas or action movies. It knows which
stars resonate with specific audiences and which genres
and titles tend to work best with those audiences at certain
times of the year, enabling Netflix to be more precise and
more efficient when deciding what content to license.
Virtually there
Virtual reality is revolutionising the live event fan experience.
Live broadcasts have been trialled extensively in NBA and
at the Rio 2016 Olympics, giving fans the ability to virtually
attend events in a move that will disrupt consumption
patterns and revenue models across the sector.
Coverage vs. content
Lines are being blurred between broadcasters and technology
brands. Twitter has already streamed Wimbledon coverage
and signed deals within NFL and college sports, while
Facebook has live streamed a match between Manchester
United and Everton to a potential 1.7 billion of its users.
Feel engineering
Developers are deepening the gaming experience
through Feel engineering: the process by which you
create a game backwards from the feeling you want
to create in a person, and carry that forward through
the mechanics and the dynamics of the game itself.
Near Futurology — Entertainment
13

Financial Services
Biometric security, deeper
personalisation, and an evolution
of the high street retail bank.
14 Near Futurology

Data-led qualification
The growing quantification of our lives plays out through
all channels. Financial services products and terms
can increasingly be offered or tailored with reference
to bio-data or social patterns.
Increased personalisation
Linked to this, we should see a rise in products or
premiums determined by actual, measurable behaviour.
A more granular level of personalisation, where
services are tailored to you; not people like you.
Open APIs
The UK Treasury is encouraging banks to open up
access to the data they hold on customers to other
businesses to foster innovation and drive competition
in the sector. It tasked an industry-led Open Banking
Working Group (OBWG) with developing a new framework
for underpinning an open banking standard and has
said it will legislate to deliver better access to
bank data through APIs ‘if necessary’, if the FS
industry does not embrace the changes.
The Genius Bank
As the role of the high street bank continues to rapidly
evolve (RBS reports that over-the-counter transactions
have fallen 43% since 2010), could we see a move
towards the physical retail presence as a support for
the online experience? A Genius Bar form of personal
support for digital self-help and transactions.
Near Futurology — Financial Services
15

Biometric authentication
Since Apple introduced the iPhone fingerprint sensor
in 2013 and brought biometric authentication from
government, defence, and law-enforcement to the massmarket,
we’ve seen a move from passwords, smartcards,
and keys towards fingerprints, retinal scans, voicerecognition
and imagery analysis. US-based market
intelligence firm Tractica has estimated that the worldwide
market for biometric technology will increase from its
2015 level of $2.0 billion to $14.9 billion by 2024.
Automation
Faster, cheaper, more efficient. If man can make way for
machine, it will happen. Research from Citi estimates that
in a branch-heavy retail bank, approximately 65% of staff
are focused on processing work that could be automated.
Algorithmic trading, customer services bots and automated
systems are replacing labour-intensive administrative
graft, and the customer experience is benefitting.
16 Near Futurology — Financial Services

Food and Beverages
The ability to sustainably source
and innovatively distribute defines
the near future.
Near Futurology
17

Logistics economy
The strategic repurposing of logistics ecosystems opens
a myriad of opportunities. Just because a system was
developed for a focused objective doesn’t mean that’s all it
can achieve. Amazon are offering free one-hour restaurant
deliveries to its Prime customers in London in a bid to take a
slice of Britain’s £9 billion takeaway market where, alongside
the intermediary app market, Amazon are up against the
might of the Uber fleet with Uber Eats. More and more
businesses are going to find alternative applications of their
core infrastructure and the consumer will see the benefit.
Efficient ordering
Just Eat customers can reorder previous takeaway meals
using just their voice with Amazon Echo. Similar voiceactivated
ordering abilities are launching on the Xbox
One games console, followed by Apple TV in 2017. Just
Eat’s Customer Care Chatbot has been built using the
Microsoft Bot Framework and uses artificial intelligence
in order to ensure customers can get support and service
around the clock, even if a human isn’t available.
Blockchain provenance
In a recent US survey, 92% of consumers reported that it
is ‘somewhat or very important’ to know where their food
is coming from. Blockchain frameworks can be utilised
to track, say, fish, noting when and where and how the
animal is caught, checking its status with certifiers (such
as whether it qualifies as organic) and tracking it as it
changes hands, so that data can be shown to the final
buyer, building trust and influencing pricing models.
Decoded barcodes
There’s a rise in barcode reader apps that shed light
on nutritional values, allergies, calorie intake, gluten,
MSG, lactose and wheat-free produce. Beyond the
standalone apps, there’s scanning integration into
wearable technologies like Fitbit adding a further layer
of insight (or worry) to quantified self. Consumers
learn more; the producer and retailer can hide less.
18 Near Futurology — Food and Beverages

Seeing is believing
Microsoft HoloLens augmented reality allows customers
to view a virtual version of a restaurant menu’s offerings
on the table in front of them, previewing presentation
and portion sizes to help aid decision making.
Alternative sustainability
The Nordic Food Lab recently published an article suggesting
that the future of human consumption could come from
animal by-products like blood and brains, or even insects.
With increasing carbon emissions emitted from the livestock
industry, the threat to freshwater, and worldwide hunger,
the practices could create sustainable alternatives. Currently,
researchers are working on how to make edible insects
more appetising, and exploring how animal blood, and its
coagulating properties, could be used as an egg substitute.
Biotechnology
The volume of clean water required to support agriculture
is becoming unsustainable. Our ability to produce staple
crops will become a deepening concern as water supplies
dwindle. Maize, rice, and wheat are critical global staples
and the development of biotechnology for drought resistance
and water efficiency is becoming increasingly important.
Near Futurology — Food and Beverages
19

Connected Home
Questions over value proposition
and ease of integration slow
mass adoption.
20 Near Futurology

Barriers to entry
Until IoT and connected devices can integrate seamlessly
and consistently into the existing home ecosystem, there
will remain an adoption lag. Devices that are easy to install
and offer obvious benefits are gaining in popularity, such
as motion sensors that send alerts when windows and
doors are opened, and cameras to monitor activity.
Insuring change
Smart smoke detectors, flood-detectors, and remote
monitoring systems are entering homes as insurance
companies drive usage through tempting financial incentives.
Neos – insurance designed for the connected home, using
HD cameras, motion sensors, smoke detectors, door contacts
and smart moisture sensors that detect leaks, controlled
through a single app – is open for early testing in the
UK and will be available to the general public in 2017.
Mixed commercial motivations
The Economist describes how each tech giant has a different
reason for trying to overcome the indifference of consumers,
and to embed itself more deeply in the home: “The Echo can
help Amazon learn how people spend their time, and make
it easier for them to spend money by suggesting things they
might buy. Google wants to draw from a fresh well of data;
by learning as much about users as possible, it can target
them with appropriate ads. Apple wants its devices to be
the gateway through which people go to organise their lives.”
Active and aesthetic
Passive building materials are giving way to active
components that can contribute more to the building than
structural integrity and heat retention without sacrificing
aesthetic sensibilities. In describing Tesla’s breakthrough
solar tiles, Elon Musk leant on the importance of combining
form and function: “I’ve never seen a solar roof that I would
actually want… they’re weird. Every one of them that I’ve
seen is worse than a normal roof, without exception. So
unless you’re going to beat a roof on aesthetics, why bother?”
Energy management systems
As solar gets cheaper and smaller, it will become
integrated into roofs and windows by default. In turn,
storage will be integrated into garages and basements
to handle the power generated. Homes will be built
with energy management systems to economise the
storage and use of self-generated power.
Near Futurology — Connected Home
21

Health and Fitness
Data for good, deepened quantified
self and biotechnology advancements
shape the health agenda.
22 Near Futurology

In a breathtaking medical
breakthrough a team of scientists
from Massachusetts General
Hospital and Harvard Medical
School has pioneered the use
of adult skin cells to regenerate
functional human heart tissue;
progress towards ultimately
growing a human heart.
Stem cells
Of the 4,000 Americans waiting for heart transplants,
only 2,500 will receive new hearts in 2017. The bodies
of many of those will reject the new organs.
Near Futurology — Health and Fitness
23

Quantified predictions
Since 23&Me first put it on our collective radar,
the commercialisation of genetic data is the shining
light for personal health predictions. Genetic data,
enhanced by further sources (wearables, quantified
self, remote monitoring) increasingly lets data lead
us to informed predictions.
Can data predict and prevent suicide?
Taking that theme a step further, Pete Trainor’s
haunting and eye-opening hypothesis suggests that
by modelling the data of people who have committed
suicide, we will be able to create early-warning systems
and stage critical life-saving interventions. Can we?
Should we? Either way, it warrants exploration.
Nanotechnology
Robert Langer, the forefather of nanotechnology
has more than 1,000 patents currently filed, and
30 companies have spun out from his vast lab at
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (the largest
biomedical lab in the world). It is estimated that
his innovations have already directly helped
two billion people.
24 Near Futurology — Health and Fitness

Virtual personal trainers
Combine personalised workout plans, live diagnostics,
and dietary advice into one virtual presence and you
get Vi, a Kickstarter-backed AI personal trainer who
lives in biosensing earphones, finds your ideal
path to fitness, and coaches you in real time.
Refined wearables
If strapping technology onto your wrist was the first
adoption step, 2017 should see a significant step away
from smartwatches to integrated wearables within
clothing and footwear that monitor posture, position,
motion, even hydration alongside existing GPS and
performance diagnostics.
Passive workouts
If all this sounds like too much hard work, we’re on
the verge of plugging ourselves in as we sleep to a series
of sensors and electrodes that isolate and auto-exercise
key muscle groups and help maintain passive fitness.
Near Futurology — Health and Fitness
25

Part of the
Group
26
Near Futurology

Digital Design Engineering
Dare is part of the OLIVER Group.
We use data-led behavioural science to design and
build digital platforms where human insight comes
before technology solutions, and effectiveness is
measured in business impact, rather than marketing
metrics. Our understanding of the structures and
ecosystems needed to produce and govern measurable
digital platforms underpins their success.
Dare Inside in-house digital agencies combine the
knowledge of client brand teams with the creative
inspiration and accountability of Dare to craft
highly effective work that’s deeply collaborative,
highly efficient and fast to market.
Near Futurology — Dare
27

thisisdare.com/nearfuturology
28
Near Futurology — Dare

151 Rosebery Avenue
London
EC1R 4AB
+44 (0) 20 3142 3710
hello@thisisdare.com