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MARKET INSIGHTS JANUARY <strong>2018</strong> | Issue 1<br />

<strong>Market</strong> <strong>Insights</strong><br />

January <strong>2018</strong> |<br />

BUSINESS OVERVIEW<br />

Key Challenges for Businesses: <strong>2018</strong><br />

Brexit and government legislation<br />

will continue to have a significant<br />

impact on all businesses. Real<br />

Business Rescue 1 reported on the<br />

top challenges for businesses in<br />

<strong>2018</strong> supported by the Workforce<br />

Survey 2017 conducted by the<br />

British Chambers of Commerce 2 .<br />

Post referendum inflation<br />

increases and a weaker pound<br />

A unique challenge to be faced by<br />

businesses in <strong>2018</strong> is dealing with<br />

the consequences of our exit<br />

from the European Union. Since<br />

the 2016 referendum, the fall in<br />

the value of sterling has caused<br />

inflation to rise – the subsequent<br />

increase in import costs<br />

adversely affecting operational<br />

and strategic plans for some<br />

businesses.<br />

Although inflation is expected to<br />

level out, the post-referendum<br />

uncertainty on future trade with<br />

Europe makes it difficult for<br />

businesses to plan ahead with<br />

confidence, and there is a<br />

reluctance to make new capital<br />

investment.<br />

Rise in the National Living Wage<br />

(NLW)<br />

The increase in NLW is predicted<br />

to reach £8.75 per hour by 2020.<br />

From April 2017, workers aged 25<br />

and over (apart from<br />

apprentices) should receive £7.50<br />

per hour - previously £7.20 per<br />

hour, with a predicted increase to<br />

£7.90 in <strong>2018</strong>. This has increased<br />

operating costs, and adversely<br />

affected profit levels for many<br />

businesses with 50% reporting<br />

higher costs as a result of NLW.<br />

38% of businesses would raise<br />

prices of products and services<br />

and 25% are expecting to reduce<br />

pay growth to shoulder the<br />

increased costs.<br />

The Institute of Fiscal Studies has<br />

also warned that it could lead to<br />

jobs being replaced with<br />

computerized systems longer<br />

term – particularly as the NLW is<br />

rising faster than average<br />

earnings resulting in more people<br />

being paid at that level.<br />

Workplace pension autoenrolment<br />

The British Chambers of<br />

Commerce Workforce survey<br />

2017 highlights three quarters of<br />

businesses are reporting<br />

increased costs as a result of<br />

pensions auto enrolment.<br />

Furthermore, 23% indicate it<br />

represents a significant cost.<br />

Rising Business Rates<br />

At revaluation, which normally<br />

occurs every 5 years, the<br />

Valuation Office Agency (VOA)<br />

IN THIS ISSUE<br />

Top Ten Issues for SMEs<br />

A survey of 400 CEOs conducted by the<br />

Academy for Chief Executives in<br />

September 2017 revealed that the<br />

recruitment and retention of people was<br />

the single biggest issue facing SMEs in<br />

<strong>2018</strong> 3 . This was in terms of recruiting<br />

enough people to support growth,<br />

sourcing candidates with relevant skills<br />

and then retaining people and developing<br />

them.<br />

Access to investment and funding to<br />

finance growth was also cited as a key<br />

challenge for <strong>2018</strong> with a long and<br />

bureaucratic process.<br />

Brexit remains a concern but equally<br />

businesses have accepted the position<br />

and are now set on dealing with the<br />

consequences of leaving the EU. Top ten<br />

concerns were ranked as follows:<br />

1. Quality People – recruiting, retaining<br />

and developing;<br />

2. Managing Growth and Change –<br />

access and cost of funding;<br />

3. Government – competence,<br />

regulation and understanding of<br />

business including GDPR;<br />

4. Managing Uncertainty – wide geopolitical<br />

and economic uncertainty;<br />

5. Increasing Costs – regulation,<br />

commodities, wages and land;<br />

6. Technological Change and Disruption<br />

– make the most from the digital<br />

economy;<br />

7. Fostering Innovation– delivering<br />

results in a constantly evolving way;<br />

8. Understanding Millennials – what<br />

drives them, how best to retain and<br />

develop;<br />

9. Banks and Stock <strong>Market</strong> – trusting in<br />

the reputation of these institutions;<br />

10. Security – physical and cyber.<br />

1. Real Business Rescue, https://www.realbusinessrescue.co.uk/articles/directors-advice/five-key-challenges-facing-businesses-in-<strong>2018</strong> , 2 nd<br />

January <strong>2018</strong><br />

2. British Chambers of Commerce Workforce Survey 2017, BCC Research<br />

3. Survey of Chief Executive Members, Academy for Chief Executives,https://chiefexecutive.com/key-issues-facing-uk-smes-<strong>2018</strong>-surveyacademy-chief-executive-members-september-2017/,<br />

September 2017


MARKET INSIGHTS JANUARY <strong>2018</strong> | Issue 1 | 2<br />

adjusts business rates in<br />

accordance with changes in the<br />

property market. Following the<br />

2017 property revaluation,<br />

businesses are faced with<br />

increased business rates. The<br />

impact has been greatest in<br />

London and the south east,<br />

affecting plans for growth and, in<br />

some instances, resulted in rapid<br />

financial decline.<br />

Not only has this damaged plans<br />

for growth and development, but<br />

in some cases it’s caused a rapid<br />

financial decline. It is expected<br />

this will continue to cause issues<br />

in <strong>2018</strong>.<br />

There is potential for this to<br />

impact commercial landlords if<br />

their tenants cannot meet these<br />

additional financial demands,<br />

subsequently affecting other<br />

suppliers and other connected<br />

businesses.<br />

Interest Rate Rise<br />

Whilst interest rates have been<br />

relatively small to date, there is<br />

scope for further increases in<br />

<strong>2018</strong>, which would impact<br />

borrowing and financing. Coupled<br />

with the other challenges likely to<br />

be experienced in <strong>2018</strong>, this could<br />

affect businesses’ plans for<br />

growth.<br />

If interest rate rises increase the<br />

value of sterling, although making<br />

imports more competitive, this<br />

would impact negatively on<br />

companies that export their<br />

products.<br />

Sector<br />

Highlights<br />

Charities<br />

The Lobbying Act,<br />

(formally the<br />

Transparency of<br />

Lobbying, Non-<br />

Party Campaigning<br />

and Trade Union<br />

Administration Act) has<br />

presented a real challenge for<br />

charities. It was originally<br />

designed to stop lobbying<br />

companies exercising undue<br />

influence over politicians by<br />

restricting their spending. Since<br />

its extension to charities, it now<br />

includes any activity by a charity<br />

which could be ‘reasonably<br />

regarded’ as intended to<br />

influence voters in England and<br />

Wales. Organisations that spend<br />

more than £20,000 in the 12<br />

months prior to the general<br />

election must register with the<br />

Electoral Commission.<br />

The Act can only be enforced<br />

seven months before any election<br />

but includes council,<br />

mayoral, European and general<br />

elections, resulting in only a few<br />

months of the year exempt. For<br />

smaller charities in particular, it<br />

has proved to be a significant<br />

barrier to forward planning<br />

campaigns 4 .<br />

Healthcare<br />

Deloitte<br />

highlights global<br />

healthcare<br />

challenges for<br />

<strong>2018</strong> 5 :<br />

Creating a<br />

positive margin in an uncertain<br />

and changing health economy<br />

continues to be one of the<br />

greatest challenges for<br />

healthcare. This is against<br />

decreased funding and increased<br />

costs to fund demand.<br />

There is a need to move<br />

strategically from volume to<br />

value with a focus on population<br />

health management, prevention<br />

and the overall holistic health of<br />

populations. This requires an<br />

evolution in job roles and<br />

technology will be critical to<br />

analysing population health and<br />

social determinants. Healthcare<br />

providers will need to respond<br />

to health policy and complex<br />

regulations as well as consider<br />

reliability of data, security and<br />

data ownership as part of this.<br />

Investment will be required in new<br />

technologies to reduce costs,<br />

increase access and improve<br />

care. From robots and AI<br />

through to 3D printing and<br />

analytics tools, technology should<br />

make healthcare less expensive<br />

and more efficient if providers are<br />

able to invest and keep up with<br />

the pace.<br />

Engaging the consumers and<br />

improving the patient experience<br />

is a key challenge with consumers<br />

reporting the biggest priority in<br />

healthcare is personalisation of<br />

care. Potential ways to increase<br />

patient experience includes<br />

telehealth, social media and<br />

virtual reality.<br />

Globally there is a severe and<br />

increasing shortage of people for<br />

clinical and leadership roles in<br />

healthcare. This is in part due to<br />

organisations being slow to adapt<br />

to new ways of working and the<br />

need to merge talent with<br />

technology.<br />

4. Challenges facing the sector, Jemma Smith, November 2017, https://www.prospects.ac.uk/jobs-and-work-experience/job-sectors/charity-andvoluntary-work/challenges-facing-the-third-sector<br />

5. <strong>2018</strong> Global Health Care Outlook, Deloitte, 2017


MARKET INSIGHTS JANUARY <strong>2018</strong> | Issue 1<br />

j<br />

Financial Services<br />

Financial Monthly reported the top<br />

five challenges for Financial Services<br />

in <strong>2018</strong> 6 . Successful social media<br />

together with evolving customer<br />

engagement was a key challenge.<br />

Social media content and practices<br />

are becoming increasingly discredited at a time when<br />

banks are trying to re-build trust. They need to find a<br />

balance between using social media channels with<br />

caution whilst not losing the opportunity to reach a<br />

large audience instantly. Coupled with this is the<br />

wider approach to customer engagement. Data<br />

mining – analyzing data to provide valuable insights –<br />

can help to better target and acquire new customers.<br />

However, it is so extensive now that the challenge is<br />

working out which insights to take forward within<br />

time and budget constraints.<br />

The Basel “IV” reforms includes a shift in the<br />

approach to risk-weighted assets (RWA) from March<br />

2019. The impact is likely to be significant with banks<br />

needing to raise more capital to comply with the new<br />

regulation.<br />

Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2017<br />

The British Chambers of Commerce Quarterly<br />

Economic Survey is based on over 7,000 responses<br />

from businesses across the UK and is the largest<br />

private sector business survey 7 . Overall growth<br />

together with confidence is low, with businesses not<br />

enjoying the same level of growth that was seen<br />

before the EU referendum. Manufacturers have<br />

showed strong performance, but this reduced slightly<br />

at the end of 2017.<br />

Challenger banks are ‘small retail banks set up to<br />

compete for business with large long established<br />

national banks’. They have enjoyed good growth<br />

positioning themselves as ‘not a traditional bank’. It<br />

is perceived however that the “honeymoon period” is<br />

ending although they still represent a competitor to<br />

traditional banks.<br />

The Second Payment Services Directive (PSD2) was<br />

introduced in 2015 with members of the EU having<br />

until <strong>2018</strong> to implement it. It aims to make payments<br />

easier and information more accessible taking away<br />

the bank’s hold on user data (and the need for<br />

services like Visa and PayPal to make a payment<br />

online). This will signify a real shift in how payments<br />

are made with banks losing revenue from lost<br />

transactions. As part of the PSD2, payment initiation<br />

service providers (PISPs) enable merchants to make<br />

the payment request for you directly. This has been<br />

identified as a possible opportunity for those banks<br />

that can capture this market and reclaim lost<br />

revenue.<br />

Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2017<br />

Professional and managerial staff were the most<br />

difficult category of employee to recruit. There was<br />

significant variance in recruitment difficulties across<br />

different regions.<br />

In <strong>2018</strong>, it is expected that labour and skills shortages<br />

will be the biggest barrier to growth. There is a need<br />

for businesses to invest in people and training – acting<br />

on this shortage. Currently the survey shows<br />

investment intentions remain below historical levels<br />

both for manufacturers and service firms. Nationally,<br />

government need to build an environment that enables<br />

businesses to thrive and kick start growth, giving firms<br />

the confidence to invest.<br />

Half of service firms stated they had attempted to<br />

recruit employees, with 71% facing recruitment<br />

difficulties, the highest proportion since records<br />

began.<br />

Figure 1 Percentage of firms experiencing recruitment<br />

difficulties in each region 7<br />

6. The Top 5 Challenges Facing Financial Services in <strong>2018</strong>, Financial Monthly, https://www.finance-monthly.com/2017/11/the-top-5-<br />

challenges-facing-financial-services-in-<strong>2018</strong>/, November 2017<br />

7. Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2017, British Chambers of Commerce, 10 th January <strong>2018</strong>


MARKET INSIGHTS JANUARY <strong>2018</strong> | Issue 1 | 4<br />

Quarterly Economic Survey Q4<br />

2017: Key Highlights 8<br />

22% of manufacturers<br />

reported an increase in<br />

their workforce up<br />

from 20% on Q3<br />

14% of services firms<br />

reported an increase in<br />

their workforce<br />

unchanged from Q3<br />

23% of manufacturers<br />

expect to grow their<br />

workforce over the<br />

next three months,<br />

down from 29% in Q3<br />

19% of service firms<br />

expect to grow their<br />

workforce over the<br />

next three months<br />

down from 21% in Q3<br />

19% of manufacturers<br />

increased investment<br />

in training in Q4, down<br />

from 20% in Q3<br />

15% of service firms<br />

increased investment<br />

in training in Q4, up<br />

from 14% in Q3<br />

44% of manufacturers<br />

are confident turnover<br />

will increase in the next<br />

12 months, down from<br />

51% in Q3<br />

36% of service firms<br />

are confident turnover<br />

will increase in the next<br />

12 months, down from<br />

40% in Q3<br />

50% of manufacturers<br />

expect their prices to<br />

increase, up from 35%<br />

in Q3<br />

36% of service firms<br />

expect their prices to<br />

increase, up from 28%<br />

in Q3<br />

Hospitality and Leisure<br />

The leisure<br />

industry has seen<br />

a year on year fall<br />

on leisure<br />

spending across<br />

almost every<br />

leisure category. This is a result of<br />

pressures on consumers from<br />

rising inflation and lower wage<br />

growth. 18-34-year-olds are<br />

spending less than last year across<br />

most leisure categories including<br />

the gym, short breaks and culture<br />

and entertainment 9 .<br />

The hospitality and leisure sector<br />

is one of the sectors noted to be<br />

most affected by the increasing<br />

NLW with a greater proportion of<br />

lower paid employees.<br />

Manufacturing<br />

Manufacturing<br />

has been<br />

particularly<br />

impacted by the<br />

continued<br />

uncertainty in the<br />

economy – largely in part to<br />

stalled EU Brexit negotiations 10 .<br />

Poor productivity is an increasing<br />

problem with manufacturing<br />

output falling in 2017 despite<br />

increased hours.<br />

Automation provides a potential<br />

area to increase productivity with<br />

85% of UK manufacturers<br />

implementing some form of<br />

automation in the past 12 months.<br />

This can only be achieved through<br />

finding investment and the people<br />

with the right skills to manage any<br />

automation. “Industry 4.0” is a<br />

drive towards digital supply<br />

chains, smart manufacturing and<br />

digital products together with<br />

data analytics as a key<br />

competency. Automation also<br />

exacerbates the skills shortage in<br />

the sector. In addition, young<br />

people are not entering the labour<br />

market with the right skills and<br />

competencies and the uncertainty<br />

over post-Brexit immigration<br />

controls compounds the problem<br />

– a significant problem in the<br />

manufacturing industry.<br />

Consumer spending is falling, and<br />

the industry has seen a continued<br />

lack of demand for products which<br />

provides further unknowns for<br />

manufacturing.<br />

Media and Entertainment<br />

Key concerns for<br />

the media and<br />

entertainment<br />

sector center<br />

around changing<br />

consumer<br />

behaviours, availability of key skills<br />

and volatile energy costs 10 . CEOs<br />

are more optimistic about growth<br />

compared with last year, with<br />

opportunities in streaming, videoon-demand<br />

services,<br />

improvements in content<br />

discovery and mobile video.<br />

A key area of concern for the<br />

industry is changing consumer<br />

behaviour with technology.<br />

Companies are focusing on digital<br />

and technological capabilities and<br />

innovation to adapt to the<br />

changing market and attract<br />

consumers.<br />

There is a critical skills gap in the<br />

sector with leadership and<br />

creativity as the hardest skills to<br />

source. 40% of CEOs in the sector<br />

expect the number of employees<br />

to reduce with the introduction of<br />

new technologies over the next<br />

five years. The industry is<br />

expected to lose more jobs to<br />

technology than most others and<br />

needs to recruit the right people<br />

to fulfil the roles that can’t be<br />

performed by machines.<br />

8. Quarterly Economic Survey Q4 2017, British Chambers of Commerce, 10 th January <strong>2018</strong><br />

9. Passion for Leisure: A view of the UK leisure consumer – Q3 2017, Deloitte, https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/pages/consumer-industrialproducts/articles/passion-for-leisure.html<br />

10. 20 th CEO Survey, PWC, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-agenda/ceosurvey/2017/uk/key-findings.html


MARKET INSIGHTS JANUARY <strong>2018</strong> | Issue 1<br />

Pharmaceutical and Life<br />

Sciences<br />

CEOs in the<br />

pharmaceutical<br />

and life sciences<br />

sector are<br />

confident of<br />

growth with US,<br />

China and Germany cited as the<br />

most important countries for<br />

short term growth 11 . The UK falls<br />

in fifth place – a significant<br />

increase on previous years.<br />

Innovation is seen as a key area to<br />

focus on to facilitate growth with a<br />

need to deliver greater value for<br />

less cost.<br />

Over-regulation remains an<br />

important concern for the sector<br />

together with pricing pressures<br />

and uncertainty in US markets. An<br />

emerging concern is the speed of<br />

technological change together<br />

with availability of key skills and<br />

cyber threats.<br />

Leadership skills were deemed of<br />

top importance to CEOs followed<br />

by problem solving, creativity and<br />

innovation. These skills are cited<br />

as being the most difficult and<br />

Pharma CEOs are more likely to<br />

move their talent around to<br />

overcome this.<br />

Retail and Consumer<br />

The retail and<br />

consumer industry<br />

remain positive<br />

about their growth<br />

both organically<br />

and through cost<br />

reductions together with new<br />

alliances, mergers and<br />

acquisitions 11 . This is felt more for<br />

consumer rather than retail<br />

businesses.<br />

The sector is less impacted by<br />

automation and technology and<br />

have a focus on innovation in<br />

driving business forward.<br />

Technology is seen as having less<br />

of an impact when compared to<br />

other industries over the next five<br />

years.<br />

For retailers, the wider business<br />

issues of the weak pound, cost<br />

inflation and business rate<br />

increases together with NLW have<br />

created challenges.<br />

Technology<br />

The availability of<br />

key skills and risk<br />

of a cyber attack<br />

are the top two<br />

greatest threats<br />

perceived by UK<br />

Technology<br />

CEOs 11 . 97% of UK CEOs stated<br />

their business was addressing<br />

cyber breaches affecting business<br />

information or critical systems. It<br />

is accepted that cyber security<br />

must be invested in to avoid such<br />

breaches.<br />

UK technology businesses are<br />

focused on building their digital<br />

and technological capabilities to<br />

make the most of new<br />

opportunities, viewing digital skills<br />

as a critical element of this.<br />

Despite this, businesses are<br />

struggling to source candidates<br />

with the appropriate skills. The UK<br />

is behind in terms of exploring<br />

artificial intelligence and the<br />

impact on future skills required.<br />

UK technology businesses see an<br />

increasing competitive<br />

environment as a result of new<br />

technology with it significantly<br />

reshaping the competition.<br />

Transport and Logistics<br />

Globally CEOs<br />

confidence in the<br />

transport and<br />

logistics sector<br />

continues to<br />

decline due to<br />

over regulation<br />

and geopolitical uncertainty 11 .<br />

Digital and technological<br />

capabilities is regarded as more<br />

important than innovation or<br />

human capital in order to exploit<br />

new opportunities. Whilst<br />

technology has had less of an<br />

impact in the five years prior<br />

relative to other industries, it is<br />

viewed as significantly impacting<br />

the sector moving forward.<br />

Over half of CEOs in the sector<br />

plan to hire more employees with<br />

problem solving, adaptability,<br />

leadership, creativity and<br />

innovation being of greatest<br />

importance. Digital skills are also<br />

important and viewed as difficult<br />

to recruit.<br />

Overall CEOs in the UK are more positive about their own businesses’<br />

growth compared to 12 months ago. UK businesses are expecting to<br />

recruit and develop people faster to take advantage of opportunities<br />

when compared with CEOs globally.<br />

CEOs are focusing on ‘tackling cyber threats, monitoring UK<br />

negotiations to leave the EU and addressing skills shortages’.<br />

Overall, the PwC 20 th annual CEO survey – ‘based on a global research<br />

sample of over 1,300 global leaders that included 126 UK CEOs –<br />

suggest that UK CEOs are staying calm and determined as they<br />

continue to pursue growth in an uncertain world 11 .<br />

11. 20 th CEO Survey, PWC, https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/ceo-agenda/ceosurvey/2017/uk/key-findings.html


Attract | Recruit | Retain | Develop

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