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WhiteClarkeGroup-Global-Leasing-Report-2018 (1)

WHITE CLARKE GROUP

WHITE CLARKE GROUP GLOBAL LEASING REPORT Table 5: White Clarke Group/GDP penetration ratio Annual leasing volume as a percentage of gross domestic product Ranking Country 2016 Ratio 1 Estonia 4.97 2 Sweden 3.93 3 Lithuania 3.72 4 Denmark 3.40 5 UK 3.11 6 Slovenia 3.09 7 Poland 2.98 8 Latvia 2.74 9 Czech Republic 2.31 10 Finland 2.27 11 Australia 2.25 12 Colombia 2.20 13 US 2.06 14 Taiwan 1.89 15 Austria 1.85 16 Germany 1.85 17 China 1.84 18 Norway 1.83 19 Switzerland 1.81 20 Bulgaria 1.79 21 Canada 1.69 22 Portugal 1.65 23 Hungary 1.65 24 France 1.58 25 Slovakia 1.54 26 Belgium 1.50 27 Italy 1.37 28 Romania 1.31 29 Morocco 1.30 30 Japan 1.20 31 Peru 1.18 32 South Africa 1.09 33 Serbia-Montenegro 0.85 34 Turkey 0.84 35 Russia 0.82 36 Chile 0.81 37 Netherlands 0.79 38 Korea 0.76 39 Spain 0.70 40 Mexico 0.68 41 Uzbekistan 0.45 42 Malaysia 0.36 43 Iran 0.31 44 Ukraine 0.23 45 Greece 0.17 46 Nigeria 0.13 47 Hong Kong 0.12 48 Argentina 0.11 49 Egypt 0.10 50 Brazil 0.10 Ranking Country 2015 Ratio 1 Estonia 4.31 2 Sweden 3.03 3 United Kingdom 3.02 4 Latvia 2.68 5 Lithuania 2.64 6 Denmark 2.50 7 Switzerland 2.40 8 Slovak Republic 2.19 9 Australia 2.08 10 United States 2.08 11 Poland 2.08 12 Slovenia 1.90 13 Finland 1.90 14 Germany 1.71 15 Taiwan Province of China 1.67 16 Colombia 1.57 17 Austria 1.47 18 Bulgaria 1.44 19 Canada 1.39 20 China 1.37 21 Czech Republic 1.33 22 Norway 1.28 23 Peru 1.26 24 France 1.05 25 Portugal 0.98 26 Belgium 0.94 27 Japan 0.93 28 Korea 0.83 29 Morocco 0.83 30 Hungary 0.80 31 Italy 0.77 32 Turkey 0.74 33 Netherlands 0.70 34 South Africa 0.68 35 Romania 0.63 36 Chile 0.62 37 Serbia 0.55 38 Mexico 0.53 39 Spain 0.50 40 Islamic Republic of Iran 0.49 41 Uzbekistan 0.41 42 Egypt 0.40 43 Nigeria 0.37 44 Malaysia 0.36 45 Russia 0.35 46 New Zealand 0.22 47 Argentina 0.18 48 Brazil 0.09 49 Greece 0.05 50 India 0.01 Ranking Country 2014 Ratio 1 Estonia 4.81 2 Sweden 3.30 3 United Kingdom 2.84 4 Latvia 2.47 5 Australia 2.47 6 Denmark 2.36 7 Switzerland 2.30 8 Slovakia 2.24 9 Finland 2.14 10 Poland 2.11 11 Lithuania 2.07 12 USA 1.95 13 Germany 1.87 14 Slovenia 1.73 15 Canada 1.69 16 Austria 1.63 17 Norway 1.63 18 Taiwan 1.63 19 Czech Republic 1.36 20 Bulgaria 1.31 21 China (People’s Republic) 1.29 22 France 1.12 23 Colombia 1.09 24 South Africa 1.07 25 Belgium 0.99 26 Portugal 0.95 27 Hungary 0.93 28 Morocco 0.91 29 Japan 0.89 30 Turkey 0.88 31 Korea 0.87 32 Chile 0.83 33 Italy 0.80 34 Russia 0.72 35 Netherlands 0.67 36 Romania 0.67 37 Serbia-Montenegro 0.60 38 Malaysia 0.57 39 Uzbekistan 0.55 40 Spain 0.49 41 Iran 0.42 42 Ukraine 0.25 43 New Zealand 0.23 44 Egypt 0.19 45 Nigeria 0.17 46 Brazil 0.15 47 Peru 0.11 48 Greece 0.06 49 Argentina 0.06 50 Mexico 0.04 Sources: London Financial Group, White Clarke Group 14 © WORLD LEASING YEARBOOK

WHITE CLARKE GROUP GLOBAL LEASING REPORT The outlook for 2017 (continued) Leasing markets in 2016 gained a greater share of the equipment finance industry and reported growth in most regions when the figures were expressed in their own local currencies. This creates confidence about the future, as the last paragraphs of this Report intend to anticipate. At the time of compiling this report (November 2017) information is available only for three quarters of 2017 therefore further adjustments might need to be undertaken when reviewing this section. leasing market is booming in China and the total number of lessors in the market has reached over 6,200. However, market penetration remains low compared to more mature markets which leaves an enormous opportunity for further growth in this market. It is worth noting that the asset securitisation market has developed rapidly in China during 2016 and 2017 and perhaps that is an area which will witness further growth in 2018. Just four countries (US, China, UK and Germany) account for more than 67% of world volume, and their perspective gives us enough indication of what the future might hold. US As reported above, new business volume grew more slowly than in previous years during 2016. This may be accounted for by government gridlock and shifting political waters. Germany According to the German leasing association’s quarterly trend report, the value of new equipment leased or supplied on hire purchase in the first quarter of 2017 was up 10% over the corresponding quarter in 2016. The German market is expected to continue to have grown in the subsequent quarters. Assuming the global economy remains stable, the market is expected to grow in 2018. However, in the first three quarters of 2017 business investment has been a key driver of economic growth and the US equipment finance industry is expected to have grown by a more robust figure in 2017. Equipment and software investment grew 4.5% and 8.3% in the first and second quarters of 2017, and according to the September ELFA Monthly Leasing and Finance Index, cumulative new business volume for 2017 stood 4% above the 2016 level. The US industry appears to be well positioned to continue to grow during 2018, albeit at a moderate rate. China Having entered the “new normal” state of a moderate annual GDP growth rate of 6.7% in 2016, (down from 13% in 2007) China has been facing some depressive macroeconomic pressures. How the leasing industry reacts to this environment of increased credit risk and risk exposure will be interesting to see in 2018. The deterioration of the ‘Asset Shortage Problem’ of the saleand-leaseback business is also creating a scarcity in the once preferred large-sized/low-risk lessees in China. The leasing industry in China has undergone dramatic growth in its 12th Five Year plan. There is no doubt that the UK The main impact on the UK economy as a result of the EU referendum has been the fall in sterling which has resulted in higher import and consumer prices. However, the UK asset finance market has remained strong amid the uncertainty. In the first three quarters of 2017 the value of new asset finance business grew by 6% over 2016. In 2018 the UK economy is expected to grow 1.5% and the outlook for 2018 remains positive. Author Brendan Gleeson, Group CEO of White Clarke Group, a global financial services business technology company, with offices in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific. Brendan joined White Clarke Group in 2001 and, under his leadership, the group has grown to become a global force in the auto finance and asset finance industry. With over 25 years’ experience in the financial services sector, including a number of board level appointments, his special expertise is creating and delivering strategic change initiatives. Before joining the company he was IT Director at Bank of Ireland Asset & Motor Finance. Brendan holds a first in Computer Science from Trinity College, in addition to his MBA from Cranfield. info@whiteclarkegroup.com whiteclarkegroup.com 15 © WORLD LEASING YEARBOOK

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