10042018 - Why I'm seeking a 2nd term — BUHARI

46 — Vanguard, TUESDAY, APRIL 10, 2018
High fertility rate fueling underdevelopment — Experts
By Chioma Obinna
WHEN John and
Josephine Adigwe
got married several years
back, all they could think
about at that time, was
making babies. Today,
Josephine is a mother of
eight. Faced with the
current economic
challenges in the country,
the meagre income of her
husband, a carpenter,
cannot meet the needs of
the family. The family of
10 is surviving hand-tomouth.
Four of the children
have dropped out of school,
even as three square meals
daily is a tall dream.
Josephine is one of the
Nigerian women of
reproductive age that are
not accessing
contraceptives and
suffering the consequences
that made up the 16
percent family planning
unment need, according to
the 2013 Demographic
Health Survey.
While the Adigwes are
endangering the future of
their young ones and
swelling the number of
dependents of the country,
Godson and Tina Egwu,
are working towards
achieving a better future for
their two children.
Married 10 years after
graduation, Godson, a civil
servant, took it upon
himself to plan his family.
Exactly, 13 months after
their nuptial, his wife gave
birth to a baby girl. The
couple agreed to seek
family planning services
and opted for long acting
contraceptives that helped
to prevent pregnancy for
five years before the third
child was born.
Today, their children are
healthy and in school and
with potential to contribute
positively to the country’s
economic growth.
Sadly, there are more
families like the Adigwes
than the likes of the
Godsons.
Statistics from the Nigeria
dividend.org show that as
at mid- 2016, Nigeria had
a population of 186 million,
annual population growth
rate of nearly 3 percent, and
44 percent of the
population was under age
15.
According to the data, the
Total Fertility Rate, TFR, or
the average number of
children per woman over
the course of her lifetime,
declined from 6.5 in 1990
to 5.7 in 2015. Given
INFOGRAPH: A family of six children. If current trends continue, the large size of the young population
relative to the working-age population will delay all four demographic dividends of health, education,
political stability and economy. Image by Paceproject.org
Nigeria’s high population
size and population growth
rate, even assuming a
decline in total fertility rate
to 3.7, the population is
expected to grow to over
440 million by 2050.
From the 2016/2017
Multiple Indicator Cluster
Survey, MICS, Nigeria has
a fertility rate of nearly 6
children per woman and a
median age of 18. The
survey also showed that
before age 19, some women
in Nigeria must have given
birth to a live baby.
Health watchers say
although Nigeria has made
bold efforts to achieve rapid
economic development
over the past four decades,
among other factors, rapid
population growth has
affected the quality of life
and made achievement of
socio-economic
development goals
difficult.
While launching the
roadmap on harnessing
demographic dividend in
the youth population, the
Vice President, Prof Yemi
Osinbajo, expressed worry
about the Nigeria’s fertility
rate, saying with the
youthful age structure of
about half of the population
under 35 years, the
implication of such
demographic realities for
the country’s development
may have consequences too
grave to be ignored.
Experts estimate that the
window of opportunity for
demographic dividend
occurs when the age of the
young population and the
older population is between
26 and 41 years.
Findings show that
countries with higher
fertility rate are unlikely to
achieve desired levels of
development across
multiple sectors. But with
a change in maturing age
structure opens a window
of opportunity across four
sectors – health, education,
economic and political.
In a research carried out
by Dr Richard Cincotta, a
political demographer
associated with Stimson
Center and Wilson Center
in Washington DC on how
Age Structure Change Can
Benefit Development with
statistical analysis using
data from over 100 countries
for a period of over four
decades, it was found that
countries with very youthful
populations almost never
attain high thresholds of
development. Nigeria falls
among these countries.
The research specifically
found that Nigeria has only
1 percent chance of
achieving the Sustainable
Development Goal, SDG,
target of reducing under-5
mortality to less than 25
deaths per 1,000 live births.
But experts say if the
country invests more in
Nigeria has only
one per cent
chance of
achieving the
Sustainable
Development
Goal target of
reducing under-
5 mortality
reproductive health
particularly family
planning in areas with poor
health indicators, then
fertility levels may begin to
decline more significantly,
and children will be more
likely to achieve better basic
levels of health.
Supporting this view, the
Programme Director,
Population Reference
Bureau, PRB, Elizabeth
Leahy Madsen, said all
was not gloomy for Nigeria,
if the country invests
massively in child survival
and child spacing, adding
that such investments can
turn things around. But she
observed that demographic
window of opportunity
does not open on its own.
She said countries must
provide women with
voluntary family planning
information and services as
it helps couples achieve
their desired family size
and contributes to improved
child health through
promoting healthy timing
and spacing of
pregnancies.
Using historical data from
countries that have
achieved the child survival
dividend in the research
supported by Population
Reference Bureau, PRB,
USAID and Policy
Advocacy Communication
Enhanced, (PACE),
Nigeria's likelihood of
achieving the child survival
dividend is possible only if
the country's total fertility
rate, or the average number
of children a woman would
have in her lifetime,
continues to decline.
It also showed that a
faster decrease in the total
fertility rate could accelerate
Nigeria's progress toward
the child survival dividend.
From the statistical graph,
in 2015, Nigeria’s median
age (the exact mid-point in
a population, where half of
all people are older and half
are younger) is projected to
be 18 in 2020, with a fertility
rate of more than 5 children
per woman. With such a
high percentage of young
people in the population,
Nigeria has a very small
chance of achieving any of
the four dividends. By 2030,
the UN projects that fertility
would decline below 5
children per woman, but
the median age would still
be very young, at 19 years.
And, Nigeria would
continue to have high child
mortality. The UN
Sustainable Development
Goals aim to reduce the
number of preventable
child deaths by 2030, to 25
or fewer deaths of children
under five per 1,000 live
births. Nigeria is one of the
countries least likely to
accomplish this across
Africa, which means that its
child mortality rate will
remain higher than in most
other African countries,
including neighboring
Cameroon. Currently, 10%
of children in Nigeria die
before their fifth birthday,
and that is likely to reduce
only slightly during the
next couple of decades.
"Because Nigeria’s
fertility rate has remained
high for so long, the chance
of the country as a whole
achieving any of the four
dividends will not rise
above 50% for several
decades. But individual
families – parents and
children – can benefit
immediately from smaller
family size. Smaller
families share resources
among fewer people,
which means each child
can be better fed, educated,
and cared for.
"By 2020, Nigeria is
expected to have fertility
rate of 5.4 with a median
age of 18 and likelihood of
achieving child survival
dividend is 2 percent. By
2025, Nigeria will achieve
a total fertility rate of 5.1
with median of 19 percent,
and likelihood of achieving
child survival dividend will
be 2 percent.
“In 2030, the Total fertility
rate will be 4.7, median age
19 and the percent
likelihood of achieving the
child survival dividend
increased to 2 percent. In
2035, Nigeria will have 4.4
total fertility rate with
median age of 20 and the
likelihood of achieving the
child survival dividend will
be 3 percent. By 2040, the
country's TFR will be 4.1
with a median age of 21 and
likelihood of achieving child
survival will be 4 percent.
Also, by 2045, it will
achieve 3.8 fertility rate
with median age of 22 and
likelihood of achieving child
survival will be 6 percent.
By 2050, it will achieve 3.5
total fertility rate with
median age of 22 and
likelihood of achieving child
survival will be 8 percent.
Corroborating her views,
a Reproductive Health/
Family Planning Advisor,
Mrs. Jumoke Adekogba,
who spoke on the fertility,
affects development in
Health and education said
“In Nigeria, more than 6 in
10 births fall in at least one
of the high risk categories.
This means that more than
half the children born have
an elevated risk of dying
before their fifth birthday
“At the family level,
having fewer mouths to
feed could help to reduce
poverty and free more
money to educate or help
each child.”
Adekogba explained that
having fewer children was
a potential to increase the
rate of economic growth
and remain a path out of
poverty for many Nigerian
families.
She noted that in the
education sector, findings
have shown that if Nigeria
continues on its current
path of high fertility, the
number of primary school
pupils will more than
double by 2040.
“If the country takes the
path of low fertility, the
nation has fewer students,
there will be less pressure
to build new schools and
provide better health for the
children,” she noted.