The Property Magazine Oxfordshire April/May 2018

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ASK THE EXPERTS Bill Cooper checks out property prices Oxford property just keeps delivering Regular and long-standing readers will know that I like to explore the ‘inside story’ of the Oxford property market, digging beneath the headlines to understand the market at a more ‘granular’ level. What are the Oxford headlines? According to the Land Registry, in January 2018, Oxford house prices were 5% higher over the last 12 months. So Oxford didn’t follow London in the doldrums as some (a hem…including me) predicted could happen in 2017. But, the number of completed transactions was down 21% with just 2,618 house sales being completed. The average price achieved was £422,055 meaning Oxford and Cambridge were the only two UK cities other than London to have an average price beginning with a ‘4’. Oxford remains the least affordable UK city when average house price is compared to average income earned in the City. How does Oxford’s property market vary by post code? As can be seen from the table below things vary quite significantly. a 12-month period. Prices in OX1 have changed by between - 8% in Kennington to +15% on Grandpont. The only consistently positive shift in prices was seen in OX4 with Rose Hill, Littlemore Number of Change in Average Change transactions transactions achieved price in value OX5 344 -14% £347,302 1% OX4 586 -11% £354,791 6% OX3 401 -16% £412,904 6% OX2 472 -17% £588,533 11% OX1 187 -25% £452,213 3% Oxford 2847 -14% £422,055 5% It’s millennials who are driving demand for Oxford rentals, at least that’s the common narrative. But in fact, the average age of an Oxford tenant is 33. 50% of all demand comes from people over the age of 29 and 22% from people over the age of 39. So in reality the demand for rental properties is shifting to include young families who need 3 and 4 bedroom properties in areas with schools, easy access to schools and good road and rail links. I’d be delighted to hear from any reader keen to find out more about the Oxford property market, and please do visit www.OxfordPropertyBlog. co.uk for more of my thoughts about the market. Post Average Change code value in value Central OX1 experienced the largest fall in transaction volumes, down a quarter, with OX4 down just 11%. But OX5 average price was up just 1% when OX2 was up 11%. The spread on average price was £233,742 with OX2 draggingup the average. OX4 saw the highest number of completed transactions. But post code areas are still too large to get a sufficiently granular understanding of what’s going on out there. And, it is always good policy to look at data from different sources. So let’s look at some of Oxford’s key areas using data from Rightmove. This data is based on properties sold on Rightmove rather than the whole market. The table opposite shows average price achieved for 14 of Oxford’s best known residential areas, and also how those averages have changed compared to the prior 12-month period. Straight away it can be seen that each post code can hide enormous variation in average values and in the change over and Cowley each in positive territory. The worst performing sub-market was Kennington and the best performing Grandpont, closely followed by Marston, Rose Hill and Littlemore. All strong owner-occupier markets offering a good range of affordable homes. So what about the rental market I hear landlord readers ask? Across Oxford average rents rose by just 1% compared the prior year averaging £1,207 per calendar month. But this too hides some variation between property type. Detached home rents rose 3.1%; semi-detached 3.2%; terraced 3.7%; and, flats 0.16%. So it can be seen that Oxford apartments which were over 45% of all tenancies, were impacted more than other property types. So why was that? My own opinion is that the negativity surrounding Brexit adversely impacted demand from foreign nationals wanting to study in Oxford, undermining demand for central-Oxford apartments. Kidlington OX5 £346,859 0% Littlemore OX4 £323,315 9% Rose Hill £354,855 10% Cowley £392,723 4% Headington OX3 £420,503 0% Marston £516,692 13% Barton £299,542 -4% Wolvercote OX2 £479,036 6% Summertown £871,561 8% Jericho £960,524 0% Botley £436,654 -4% Grandpont OX1 £493,985 15% Kennington £385,471 -8% New Hinksey £516,334 4% Bill Cooper is Managing Director of Martin & Co in Oxford and Kidlington, and the author of www.OxfordPropertyBlog.co.uk 18 The Property Magazine Oxfordshire
We asked Finders Keepers – Why invest in property in Oxfordshire? The housing market in Oxford and Oxfordshire is often in the news as a microcosm of the UK’s ‘housing crisis’. The point of this article is not to debate affordability – it is clear that Oxfordshire has a serious shortage of housing – but rather to put the case for why it may suit some people in terms of residential property investment. Factors creating housing demand In the decades since we launched, there has been consistent and solid demand for people to live in Oxfordshire, and we divide the factors up as follows: • Two universities – Consistently ranked in the Top 10 universities in the world Oxford University attracts students, post-grads and staff from a global pool. It creates spin-off companies which in turn create more employment and more demand for housing. Brookes University is an important part of the story too - it has grown considerably and is investing in consistent development in East Oxford. • Strong economic clusters – from cryogenics to Formula 1, from BMW MINI to the Diamond Light project, Oxfordshire has a range of intense, added value clusters and world-class companies such as Oxford Instruments, Sophos and RM Leaning. • Between London & Birmingham – Oxford is an hour from the two biggest cities in the UK and a perfect base for commuting. We let properties to couples where one person works in each city. • Central location – Logistics companies like Oxfordshire as it is on the edge of the highly densely populated South-East but with fast access to the M40/M6 north, M4 west and A34 south. • Schools – Education is Oxford’s most famous industry, and the fee-paying and state schools attract considerable numbers of people from London and abroad. North Oxford alone has eight well-known schools. • The countryside – Oxfordshire has some of the most pleasant villages in the country. A cold pint at the local, the sound of leather on willow, good primary schools and now even a branch of Soho House - there are good reasons why so many people take root in our countryside. • Low crime – There are pockets of social deprivation and many people would be surprised at the inequality within a city such as Oxford. That said, crime is low in the vast majority of suburbs and villages. • It’s a nice place! We might be biased but there is an intangible sense of place and community in Oxford and Oxfordshire. Factors limiting supply The Strategic Market Housing Authority says the county needs 106,500 new homes by 2031 which approximates to 5000 new homes a year. So why are more new homes not being built: • Green belt – Much of Oxfordshire is protected land, including a ring around the city of Oxford. This hinders attempts at creating new housing and is likely to be the biggest single point of contention for housing over the next 20+ years. • Council discord – The various local authorities cannot seem to agree with each on where to build more housing. Crudely Oxford City Council says it has space for 900-1000 new homes at a maximum and it wants the formal plans of its neighbouring council’s to include more housing for Oxford’s workers. The lawyers have been busier than the house builders. • Flood plain – If you look at Oxford from above, much of it is flood meadows and it will never be built on. Port Meadow is under water for much of the year. The River Cherwell and Rivers Thames both run through Oxford. Plus the River Evenlode floods too. • Views and height – The ‘dreaming spires’ of Oxford means that certain views are protected. Oxford needs to protect its medieval heritage and substantial tourist trade which means that tall buildings will not be easily built in the city. • Finance – Recent key projects have been delayed due to economic problems. Although the new Westgate and Oxford Parkway are now open, they were much later than planned. The result: consistent rental growth and strong capital growth The graph shows a steady relationship between the average rent on the revolving Finders Keepers portfolio and inflation in the form of RPI. This illustrates the consistent influences underpinning demand as listed above. The Oxfordshire rental market is inherently different to the London market, for example, which rides the peaks and troughs of the economy and particularly the financial sector. The sales values are less consistent but overall, greater than the rental growth. The short supply of new property amidst a strong local economy is the main factor here. This trend in median sales values is what motivates our ‘capital’ investors. See Graph below. Yields and income vs. capital appreciation With strong demand and limited supply, the gross rental yields are not going to be stratospheric and crudely we see yields of 4+% in Oxford and going up to 5+% in the market towns such as Banbury and Bicester. This triggers a key question for you: are you going to invest for income; for capital appreciation; or for both? ‘Income’ investors know that they need the income to support their life and they may be happy to sacrifice a bit of long-term appreciation. ‘Capital’ investors’ decide they want to park their capital for the long-term (5 years minimum) because they think their property will increase in value. It is difficult to get both. You need to make a decision about your priorities, your life and what income you need and when. Each property is different and a view must be taken on the property and on broad trends. Where to buy? We advise our retained clients on where to invest whether it is new-build or second hand property. We understand the micro-rental factors and prices and we will give you advice related to your specific objectives. To discuss your investment goals contact Maxine Allington on 01865 302314. Data sources: ONS inflation figures; Finders Keepers internal figures; ONS Average Dwelling prices paid by local authority. April/May 2018 19
Page 1 and 2: THE ALL NEW PROPERTY MAGAZINE FOR O
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Page 6 and 7: No One Knows Oxford & Kidlington Pr
Page 8 and 9: HOT PROPERTIES Four very different
Page 10 and 11: GARDENING Garden Design for a Brand
Page 12 and 13: GARDENING The plans for the garden
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Page 20 and 21: PROPERTY DEVELOPMENT NEWS…. Spoil
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Page 29 and 30: Top Tips & Reader Stories A top dec
Page 31 and 32: HH-10329562 HH-12097394 PERPIGNAN 3

The Property Magazine Oxfordshire April/May 2018

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