Outlook for European White Top Containerboard Market - RISI

Outlook for European White Top
Containerboard Market
Special Market Analysis Study
2012

The Outlook For European White Top Containerboard Market Study was produced by:
Ken Waghorne Vice President, World Paper Packaging
Irina Van den Neste News Editor, PPI Europe
Orifjon Abidov Economist, European Paper Packaging
Lori Pilla Senior Production Specialist
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RISI European White Top Containerboard Market
Table of Contents
Table of Contents......................................................................................................................................................iii
List of Tables .............................................................................................................................................................v
List of Figures .........................................................................................................................................................vii
Grade Definitions ..................................................................................................................................................... xi
Executive Summary.................................................................................................................................................13
Containerboard Consumption Growth Will Vary Depending on the Region for 2012-2016.......................15
Trade Will Remain a Minor Factor in the Overall European White Top Containerboard Market ..............17
Capacity Additions of European White Top Are Likely to Follow Demand Growth..................................18
Price Developments Will Be Mainly Cost Driven over the Next Five Years ..............................................21
Future Investments in the European Containerboard Industry ....................................................................23
Market Review.........................................................................................................................................................25
European Trends in White Top Linerboard/Containerboard Demand .........................................................25
Demand Snapshot of 2010 ....................................................................................................................25
A Brief History of White Top Containerboard Demand (2002-2010) ..................................................28
And What About the Shift Between the Containerboard Grades? .......................................................31
White Top Containerboard Consuming Countries in Europe ...............................................................33
European Trends in White Top Containerboard Supply ..............................................................................35
A Snapshot of 2010 ...............................................................................................................................35
White Top Containerboard Capacity Developments by Country..........................................................37
European White Top Containerboard Producers and Their Market Share in 2011...............................39
European White Top Operating Rates...................................................................................................44
European White Top Containerboard Trade ................................................................................................45
Major European Consuming and Exporting Countries.........................................................................45
European Net Trade Position in White Top Testliner and Kraftliner ....................................................48
European Trends in White Top Containerboard Production Costs ..............................................................51
Snapshot of Manufacturing Costs in 2010 and General Assumptions..................................................51
Historical Developments in Production Costs in European White Top Markets ..................................53
Developments in Manufacturing Costs in Brown and White Top Kraftliner ..............................................54
Developments in Variable Costs in Brown and White Top Testliner...........................................................55
European Trends in White Top Containerboard Prices ...............................................................................57
Price Gap Between Brown and White Liner Prices in Europe ............................................................58
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Containerboard Grades ................................................................................................................................60
2012 iii

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market Table of Contents
European White Top Containerboard Demand (2012-2016)..................................................................................63
European Economic Outlook.......................................................................................................................63
European White Top Linerboard Demand ..................................................................................................64
Future Developments in Western European White Top Demand ...............................................................67
Future Developments in Eastern European White Top Demand .................................................................69
White Top Testliner Consumption by Country ............................................................................................70
White Top Kraftliner Consumption by Country ..........................................................................................72
European Trade in White Top Containerboard (2012-2016) ..................................................................................75
European Summary......................................................................................................................................75
European White Top Testliner Trade............................................................................................................75
European White Top Kraftliner Trade..........................................................................................................79
European White Top Containerboard Supply (2012-2016) ....................................................................................83
European Summary......................................................................................................................................83
European White Top Testliner Capacity by Major Country.........................................................................85
Germany................................................................................................................................................86
Spain......................................................................................................................................................87
Italy ......................................................................................................................................................88
France ...................................................................................................................................................89
Other Countries .....................................................................................................................................89
European White Top Kraftliner Capacity by Major Country.......................................................................92
Overview of Recovered Paper Market and Prices (2000-2016) ............................................................................95
Overview of European Recovered Paper Markets in 2010..........................................................................95
Developments in World Recovered Paper Markets (2000-2016) ................................................................98
Price Developments in European Fiber Markets (2000-2016) ..................................................................105
Prices, Production Costs and Profitability (2012-2016)......................................................................................109
Assumptions...............................................................................................................................................109
Future Developments in Production Costs in European Containerboard Segments..................................109
Future Development in Containerboard Pricing .......................................................................................113
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Appendix 1: Containerboard Summary by Country and Region...........................................................................121
Appendix 2: Western European Containerboard Price Forecast .........................................................................193
Appendix 3: White Top Containerboard Production Costs for Selected Countries..............................................197
Appendix 4: Mill by Mill Capacity and Machine Details.......................................................................................203
iv 2012

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market
Market Review
List of Tables
Table 1 Estimated Growth Differential Between Various Containerboard Grades
and Overall Demand for Containerboard in
Europe Annually Between 2002 and 2010 ...............................................................................31
Table 2 Estimated Growth Differential Between Various Containerboard Grades
and Overall Demand for Containerboard in
Western Europe Annually Between 2002 and 2010 .................................................................32
Table 3 European White Top Containerboard Capacity ........................................................................37
Table 4 Major White Top Producers Outside Europe............................................................................51
Table 5 Estimated Production Costs for Linerboard in Europe, 2010...................................................52
European White Top Containerboard Demand (2012-2016)
Table 1 Estimated Growth Differential Between Various Containerboard Grades and
Overall Demand for Containerboard in Europe Annually Between 2006 and 2016................67
Table 2 Estimated Growth Differential Between Various Containerboard Grades and
Overall Demand for Containerboard in Western Europe Annually Between 2006
and 2016 ...................................................................................................................................68
European White Top Containerboard Supply (2012-2016)
Table 1 Announced European White Top Containerboard Capacity Expansions
and Closures for 2007-2016 .....................................................................................................91
Table 2 Announced European White Top Containerboard Capacity Expansions
and Closures for 2007-2016 .....................................................................................................93
Appendix 1: Containerboard Summary by Country and Region
Table A1 Total Europe: White Top Containerboard Summary ..............................................................122
Table A2 Western Europe: White Top Containerboard Summary..........................................................124
Table A3 Germany: White Top Containerboard Summary ....................................................................126
Table A4 Italy: White Top Containerboard Summary............................................................................128
Table A5 France: White Top Containerboard Summary ........................................................................130
Table A6 United Kingdom: White Top Containerboard Summary ........................................................132
Table A7 Spain: White Top Containerboard Summary..........................................................................134
Table A8 Finland: White Top Containerboard Summary.......................................................................136
Table A9 Norway: White Top Containerboard Summary ......................................................................138
Table A10 Sweden: White Top Containerboard Summary ......................................................................140
Table A11 Austria: White Top Containerboard Summary .......................................................................142
Table A12 Belgium: White Top Containerboard Summary .....................................................................144
Table A13 Denmark: White Top Containerboard Summary ....................................................................146
2012 v

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market List of Tables
Table A14 Greece: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................................................148
Table A15 Ireland: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................................................150
Table A16 Netherlands: White Top Containerboard Summary................................................................152
Table A17 Portugal: White Top Containerboard Summary......................................................................154
Table A18 Switzerland: White Top Containerboard Summary ................................................................156
Table A19 Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe: White Top Containerboard Summary ................158
Table A20 Poland: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................................................160
Table A21 Czech Republic: White Top Containerboard Summary..........................................................162
Table A22 Hungary: White Top Containerboard Summary .....................................................................164
Table A23 Baltic: White Top Containerboard Summary..........................................................................166
Table A24 Slovakia: White Top Containerboard Summary .....................................................................168
Table A25 Slovenia: White Top Containerboard Summary .....................................................................170
Table A26 Turkey: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................................................172
Table A27 Romania: White Top Containerboard Summary.....................................................................174
Table A28 Bulgaria: White Top Containerboard Summary .....................................................................176
Table A29 Malta and Cyprus: White Top Containerboard Summary ......................................................178
Table A30 Croatia: White Top Containerboard Summary .......................................................................180
Table A31 Other Southeastern Europe: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................182
Table A32 Russia: White Top Containerboard Summary ........................................................................184
Table A33 Ukraine: White Top Containerboard Summary ......................................................................186
Table A34 Poland: White Top Containerboard Summary........................................................................188
Table A35 Other Europe: White Top Containerboard Summary .............................................................190
Appendix 2: Western European Containerboard Price Forecast
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Appendix 3: White Top Containerboard Production Costs for Selected Countries
Table A1 Brown Testliner Production Costs in Germany .....................................................................198
Table A2 Uncoated White Top Testliner Production Costs in Germany ...............................................199
Table A3 Unbleached Kraftliner Production Costs in Sweden ..............................................................200
Table A4 Uncoated White Top Kraftliner Production Costs in Sweden ................................................201
Appendix 4: Mill by Mill Capacity and Machine Details
Table A1 European White Top Kraftliner Producing Mill Capacity ......................................................204
Table A2 European White Top Testliner Producing Mill Capacity........................................................207
Table A3 European White Top Containerboard Producing Machines Details .......................................213
vi 2012

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market
Executive Summary
List of Figures
Figure 1 European Containerboard Demand Growth for 2006-2016: White Top Linerboard
Demand Growth Is Expected to Slow Sharply.........................................................................13
Figure 2 European Containerboard Consumption by Grade 2006-2016.................................................14
Figure 3 Western European White Top Testliner and White Top Kraftliner Demand (2006-2016)........15
Figure 4 Eastern European White Top Testliner and White Top Kraftliner Demand (2006-2016).........16
Figure 5 European Net Trade Position in White Top Testliner ...............................................................17
Figure 6 European Net Trade Position in White Top Kraftliner .............................................................18
Figure 7 European Containerboard Capacity Changes by Grade:
Growth Is Expected to Be Mainly in the Lightweight Brown Area.........................................19
Figure 8 European White Top Testliner Capacity Developments by Country ........................................20
Figure 9 European White Top Kraftliner Capacity Developments by Country:
Growth Is Expected to Still Be Affected by Shifts to Other Paper Packaging Grades.............21
Figure 10 Western European Average 140 gsm Uncoated White Top Testliner Free Delivered
Prices and Production Costs .....................................................................................................22
Figure 11 Western European Average 140 gsm Uncoated White Top Kraftliner Free Delivered
Prices and Production Costs .....................................................................................................23
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Market Review
Figure 1 European Paper Packaging Domestic Markets: Containerboard Is by Far
the Largest Market....................................................................................................................25
Figure 2 European Containerboard Market in 2010 (29 Million Tonnes):
White Top Linerboard Has Roughly 12% of Market Share .....................................................27
Figure 3 White Containerboard Has Been the Fastest Growing Market in Europe................................28
Figure 4 The White Top Market in Europe Is Only a Tenth the Size of the Brown
Containerboard Market.............................................................................................................29
Figure 5 European White Top Containerboard Market:
The White Top Market Surpassed Pre-Crisis Levels in 2010...................................................30
Figure 6 White Top Containerboard Consuming Countries in 2010.......................................................33
Figure 7 European Paper Packaging Capacity ........................................................................................35
Figure 8 European Containerboard Production Capacity by Grade:
Recycled Containerboard Is a Growing Segment, Especially in the Lightweight
and White Top Areas ................................................................................................................36
Figure 9 European White Top Containerboard Capacity by Country and Overall Growth ....................38
Figure 10 European White Top Containerboard Capacity Growth: White Top Testliner Has Been
Growing by Over 8% Annually................................................................................................40
2012 vii

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market List of Figures
Figure 11 European Kraftliner Capacity in 2011: White Top Seems to Be the More
Consolidated Market ................................................................................................................41
Figure 12 European Recycled Containerboard Capacity in 2011: White Top Seems to Be the More
Consolidated Market ................................................................................................................43
Figure 13 Overall European White Top Containerboard Operating Rates................................................44
Figure 14 European White Top Kraftliner Trade by Country in 2010 ......................................................46
Figure 15 European White Top Testliner Trade by Country in 2010 ........................................................48
Figure 16 Overall European White Top Testliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade.................49
Figure 17 Overall European White Top Kraftliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade ...............50
Figure 18 Average Nominal Production Costs in White Top Containerboard..........................................53
Figure 19 Average Nominal Production Costs in Kraftliner Markets.......................................................55
Figure 20 Average Nominal Production Costs in Testliner Markets.........................................................56
Figure 21 Average Western European White Top Linerboard Nominal Prices.........................................57
Figure 22 Average Western European White Top Linerboard Real Prices ...............................................58
Figure 23 Average Price Gap in Western European Containerboard Markets in Real Terms...................59
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European White Top Containerboard Demand (2012-2016)
Figure 1 Western European Economic Growth Is Limited over the Next Five Years.............................63
Figure 2 Major Growth in Europe Is Expected to Come from Eastern Europe ......................................64
Figure 3 European Containerboard Demand Growth for 2006-2016: White Top Linerboard
Demand Growth Is Expected to Slow Sharply.........................................................................65
Figure 4 European Containerboard Consumption by Grade (2006-2016)..............................................66
Figure 5 Western European White Top Testliner and White Top Kraftliner Demand (2006-2016)........68
Figure 6 Eastern European White Top Testliner and White Top Kraftliner Demand (2006-2016).........69
Figure 7 White Top Testliner Demand in Western Europe by Country (2002-2016)..............................70
Figure 8 White Top Testliner Demand in Eastern Europe by Country (2002-2016) ..............................71
Figure 9 White Top Kraftliner Demand in Western Europe by Country (2002-2016)............................72
Figure 10 White Top Kraftliner Demand in Eastern Europe by Country (2002-2016).............................73
European Trade in White Top Containerboard (2012-2016)
Figure 1 Western European White Top Testliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade................76
Figure 2 Net Imports Position in White Top Testliner for Major Western European
Countries (2002-2016)..............................................................................................................77
Figure 3 Eastern European White Top Testliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade.................77
Figure 4 Net Imports Position in White Top Testliner for Major Eastern European
Countries (2002-2016)..............................................................................................................78
Figure 5 European Net Trade Position in White Top Testliner ...............................................................79
Figure 6 Western European White Top Kraftliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade ..............80
Figure 7 Net Exports in White Top Kraftliner for Major European Countries (2002-2016) ..................80
viii 2012

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market List of Figures
Figure 8 Eastern European White Top Kraftliner Demand, Supply and Estimated Net Trade ...............81
Figure 9 Net Imports Position in White Top Kraftliner for Major Eastern European
Countries (2002-2016)..............................................................................................................82
Figure 10 European Net Trade Position in White Top Kraftliner .............................................................82
European White Top Containerboard Supply (2012-2016)
Figure 1 European Containerboard Capacity Developments by Grade ..................................................83
Figure 2 European Containerboard Capacity Changes by Grade............................................................84
Figure 3 European White Top Testliner Capacity Developments by Country ........................................85
Figure 4 European White Top Operating Rates (2002-2016): Eastern Europe Will Likely Improve
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Figure 5 European White Top Kraftliner Capacity Developments by Country:
Growth Is Expected to Still Be Affected by Shifts to Other Paper Packaging Grades.............92
Figure 6 European White Top Kraftliner Operating Rates (2002-2016).................................................93
Overview of Recovered Paper Market and Prices (2000-2016)
Figure 1 Major End-Uses for Recovered Paper in Western Europe, 2010..............................................95
Figure 2 Western European Consumption of Major Recovered Paper Grades, 2010.............................96
Figure 3 Major End-Uses for Recovered Paper in Eastern Europe, 2010...............................................97
Figure 4 Eastern European Consumption of Major Recovered Paper Grades, 2010..............................97
Figure 5 Western European Consumption of Major Recovered Paper Grades in the Containerboard
Sector, 2010 ..............................................................................................................................98
Figure 6 World Paper Demand by Major Grade:
Packaging and Tissue Are the Only Growing Sectors..............................................................99
Figure 7 Regional Consumption of Paper and Board............................................................................100
Figure 8 Regional Net Trade in Paper and Board .................................................................................101
Figure 9 World Paper Industry Consumption of Major Fiber Sources .................................................102
Figure 10 Regional Net Trade in Wood Pulp ..........................................................................................103
Figure 11 Regional Net Trade in Recovered Paper.................................................................................104
Figure 12 Recovery Rates in Various Part of the World (Relative to Paper and Board Apparent
Consumption) .........................................................................................................................105
Figure 13 Nominal Prices of Bulk Grades of Recovered Paper in Germany..........................................106
Figure 14 Nominal Prices of White Grades of Recovered Paper and Kraft Pulp in Western Europe.....107
Figure 15 Real Prices of Bulk Grades of Recovered Paper in Germany ................................................108
Figure 16 Real Prices of White Grades of Recovered Paper and Kraft Pulp in Western Europe ...........108
Prices, Production Costs and Profitability (2012-2016)
Figure 1 Major Components of the Brown Recycled Liner Cost Structure in
Germany (2005-2016) ............................................................................................................109
Figure 2 Major Components of the White Top Recycled Liner Cost Structure in
Germany (2005-2016) ............................................................................................................110
Figure 3 Major Components of the Unbleached Kraftliner Cost Structure in Sweden (2005-2016).... 111
2012 ix

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market List of Figures
Figure 4 Major Components of the White Top Kraftliner Cost Structure in Sweden (2005-2016)......112
Figure 5 Average Real Production Costs in White Top Containerboard (2000-2016)..........................113
Figure 6 Western European Average Testliner 2 Free Delivered Prices and Production Costs ............114
Figure 7 Western European Average 140 gsm Uncoated White Top Testliner Free Delivered
Prices and Production Costs ...................................................................................................115
Figure 8 Western European Average 175 gsm Unbleached Kraftliner Free Delivered Prices and
Production Costs.....................................................................................................................116
Figure 9 Western European Average 140 gsm Uncoated White Top Kraftliner Free Delivered
Prices and Production Costs ...................................................................................................117
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Figure 11 Western European 140 gsm Uncoated White Top Testliner Free Delivered Pricing and
������������.............................................................................................................................118
Figure 12 Western European Unbleached Kraftliner 175 gsm Free Delivered Pricing
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Figure 13 Western European Uncoated White Top Kraftliner 140 gsm Free Delivered Pricing
���������������� ......................................................................................................................119
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x 2012

RISI European White Top Containerboard Market
Paper Packaging Grades
CNT Containerboard
LNK Kraftliner
CMS Semichemical Medium
LNR Recycled Linerboard
CMR Recycled Medium
CNR Recycled Containerboard
LNM White Top Kraftliner
LRW White Top Testliner
CBT Cartonboard
CBF Folding Boxboard (European Grade)
CBL Liquid Packaging Board
CBB Solid Bleached Sulphate Board
CBW White Lined Chipboard
CBU Unbleached Cartonboard
CBO Other Cartonboard
OBT Other Paperboard
OBC Tube, Can & Drum Stock
OBR Uncoated Recycled Board
OBG Plasterboard Liner
OBO Other Paperboard
OBP Cup Stock
PIP Packaging, Industrial and Specialty Papers
SPI Specialty Industrial Papers
SPK Specialty Packaging Papers
WPT Wrapping & Packaging Papers
WPS Sack Kraft
WPA Unbleached Sack Kraft
WPK Bleached Sack Kraft
MG Machine Glazed Paper
Grade Definitions
2012 xi