About Drought Showcase Review (Post-Event)
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<strong>Showcase</strong> <strong>Review</strong><br />
A round-up of presentations, research and outputs from<br />
the RCUK <strong>Drought</strong> and Water Scarcity Programme held in<br />
Birmingham on March 14th, 2018.<br />
www.<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>.info<br />
@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong><br />
info@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>.info
Contents<br />
3<br />
4<br />
6<br />
7<br />
8<br />
9<br />
10<br />
11<br />
12<br />
13<br />
16<br />
38<br />
58<br />
83<br />
102<br />
131<br />
147<br />
148<br />
150<br />
152<br />
153<br />
Thank You<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> & Water Scarcity Programme<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Risk & You<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s<br />
IMPETUS<br />
MaRIUS<br />
ENDOWS<br />
Newsletter<br />
<strong>Showcase</strong> Programme<br />
Plenary Session Speakers<br />
Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
Data<br />
Environment<br />
Water Supply<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
Communities<br />
Waterways Walk<br />
Datasets<br />
Organisations Who Attended<br />
Stay In Touch<br />
2
Thank You<br />
Welcome to the event review magazine following the<br />
<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Showcase</strong> and thank you to all the delegates<br />
who attended and to all the presenters. Around 120 people<br />
representing a very broad range of interests and expertise joined<br />
us to connect with this truly interdisciplinary research initiative,<br />
the RCUK <strong>Drought</strong> & Water Scarcity Programme.<br />
In this pack you will find presentations which<br />
illustrate the diverse, interdisciplinary and crosssectoral<br />
content which so many delegates – and<br />
speakers – have told us gave such a valuable<br />
insight into drought and water scarcity in the UK.<br />
We would like to thank all our speakers and<br />
facilitators who shared their expertise at the<br />
<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Showcase</strong>, and all the delegates<br />
for your questions, comments and opinions which<br />
will feed into the direction of the programme,<br />
its outputs and future workshops, events and<br />
engagement activities.<br />
Have you viewed the event video?<br />
Further thanks to everyone who was interviewed<br />
for the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> video documentary.<br />
Please watch it by clicking here and share it with<br />
your colleagues. If you would like to feature it on<br />
your website please contact the project office by<br />
emailing info@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>.info<br />
3
UK <strong>Drought</strong> & Water<br />
Scarcity Programme<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>s and water scarcity jointly pose a substantial threat to the environment, agriculture, infrastructure,<br />
society and culture in the UK, yet our ability to characterise and predict their occurrence, duration and intensity,<br />
as well as minimise their impacts, is often inadequate.<br />
The UK <strong>Drought</strong>s & Water Scarcity research programme is a five-year interdisciplinary, £12 million+ NERC<br />
programme in collaboration with ESRC, EPSRC, BBSRC and AHRC. It is supporting improved decision-making in<br />
relation to droughts and water scarcity by providing research that identifies, predicts and responds to the interrelationships<br />
between their multiple drivers and impacts.<br />
The programme’s research is UK-focused, and contributes to NERC’s natural hazards and climate system<br />
strategic science themes.<br />
Four projects are funded under the UK<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>s & Water Scarcity programme:<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s<br />
IMPETUS<br />
MaRIUS<br />
DRY<br />
Understanding past<br />
drought episodes to<br />
develop improved tools<br />
for the future<br />
Improving predictions of<br />
drought to inform user<br />
decisions<br />
Managing the<br />
risks, impacts and<br />
uncertainties of drought<br />
and water scarcity<br />
Bringing together<br />
stories and science to<br />
support better decisionmaking<br />
for drought risk<br />
management<br />
The final project, ENDOWS, (known as <strong>About</strong><br />
<strong>Drought</strong>) engages with stakeholders, practitioners<br />
and the public to involve them in the UK <strong>Drought</strong><br />
and Water Scarcity programme and to disseminate<br />
information about the findings, outputs and datasets<br />
zfrom the programme that everyone can use.<br />
SHOWCASE VIDEO<br />
You can find highlights from the <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />
<strong>Showcase</strong> by clicking HERE or following this link:<br />
bit.ly/<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>Highlights<br />
4
The Projects<br />
Find out more about the<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> & Water Scarcity<br />
projects<br />
5
DWS<br />
Projects<br />
dryproject.co.uk<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>s and water shortage can impact on the<br />
environment, agriculture, infrastructure, society<br />
and culture, affecting us all. The DRY project was<br />
founded in April 2014, with an aim to develop an<br />
easy-to-use, evidence-based resource to inform<br />
decision-making for drought risk management in<br />
the UK over a four-year period.<br />
The project spans seven catchment areas in<br />
England, Wales and Scotland to reflect different<br />
hydrological, socio-economic and cultural contexts<br />
in the UK.<br />
It takes a unique approach because it draws<br />
together information from multiple perspectives<br />
on drought science, stakeholder engagement,<br />
citizen science and narrative storytelling to better<br />
understand drought risks, while other studies have<br />
focused on mathematical modelling of drought<br />
risk.<br />
A key part of this is using different types of data<br />
together to build a better picture of drought risk<br />
in the UK. In the project, ‘data’ can mean statistics<br />
derived from a hydrological model to stories and<br />
images collected from a river catchment area<br />
and we think each of these is equally valuable in<br />
helping us understand how we can better cope<br />
with drought.<br />
To achieve this DRY incorporates a two-way<br />
process for gathering and sharing knowledge<br />
about drought. Narratives are stimulated<br />
from discussions around images, memories of<br />
historical drought events and the outcomes of the<br />
hydrological drought models being developed in<br />
the team. The narratives provide context to feed<br />
into our drought models which predict future<br />
drought scenarios.<br />
The project is also carrying out citizen science<br />
projects engaging people and generating learning<br />
opportunities surrounding drought impacts on<br />
plants, crops, trees and domestic water use. At<br />
each stage of the process the project shares<br />
findings with groups and incorporates feedback<br />
into the research design.<br />
The project leader is Professor Lindsey McEwen<br />
@Project_DRY<br />
6
DWS<br />
Projects<br />
historicdroughts.ceh.ac.uk<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s aims to develop a crossdisciplinary<br />
understanding of past drought episodes<br />
that have affected the UK, with a view to developing<br />
improved tools for managing droughts in future.<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> and water scarcity are significant threats<br />
to livelihoods and well-being in many countries,<br />
including the UK. Parts of the country are already<br />
water-stressed and are facing a wide range of<br />
pressures, including an expanding population and<br />
intensifying exploitation of increasingly limited water<br />
resources. In addition, many regions may become<br />
significantly drier in future due to environmental<br />
changes, all of which implies major challenges to<br />
water resource management. However, droughts<br />
are not simply natural hazards. There are also a<br />
range of socio-economic and regulatory factors<br />
that may influence the course of droughts, such<br />
as water consumption practices and abstraction<br />
licensing regimes. Consequently, if drought and<br />
water scarcity are to be better managed, there is a<br />
need for a more detailed understanding of the links<br />
between physical (i.e. meteorological, hydrological)<br />
and social and economic systems during droughts.<br />
With this research gap in mind, the Historic<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>s project aims to develop an<br />
interdisciplinary understanding of drought from<br />
a range of perspectives. Based on an analysis<br />
of information from a wide range of sectors<br />
(hydrometeorological, environmental, agricultural,<br />
regulatory, social and cultural), the project aims to<br />
characterise and quantify the history of drought<br />
and water scarcity since the late 19th century.<br />
The project will deliver the first systematic account<br />
(the UK <strong>Drought</strong> Inventory) of past droughts in the<br />
UK. The Inventory will form the basis of a novel joint<br />
hydrometeorological and socio-economic analysis<br />
that will lead to a ‘systems-based’ understanding of<br />
drought – i.e. an understanding of the multiple and<br />
interconnected drivers of drought, the impacts of<br />
drought and the feedbacks between them.<br />
We expect this systems-based understanding<br />
to improve decision-making for future drought<br />
management and planning, and to facilitate more<br />
informed and effective public discourse related to<br />
drought.<br />
The project leader is Jamie Hannaford at the<br />
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH)<br />
@Hist<strong>Drought</strong>sUK<br />
7
DWS<br />
Projects<br />
aboutdrought.info<br />
IMPETUS brings together scientists from the<br />
meteorological, land surface, surface water and<br />
groundwater communities and social scientists<br />
from the water demand and forecast usability<br />
communities.<br />
The project involves internationally-leading<br />
scientists and social scientists from three<br />
NERC Research Centres (the National Centre<br />
for Atmospheric Science (NCAS), the British<br />
Geological Survey (BGS) and the Centre for<br />
Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), four leading<br />
universities (Oxford, Reading, Newcastle, and<br />
Southampton), the Met Office and the European<br />
Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts<br />
(ECMWF).<br />
Photo Credit: Emma Sheppard<br />
IMPETUS aims to improve the forecasting of UK<br />
drought on monthly to decadal timescales, by<br />
improving meteorological, hydrological and water<br />
demand forecasts and how they are combined<br />
to produce drought forecasts. This will be done<br />
in conjunction with stakeholders to ensure that<br />
drought forecasts are relevant for decision making.<br />
The project leader is Professor Len Shaffrey at<br />
University of Reading.<br />
@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong><br />
8
DWS<br />
Projects<br />
mariusdroughtproject.org<br />
The MaRIUS project introduces a risk-based<br />
approach to drought and water scarcity to inform<br />
management decisions and to prepare households.<br />
The span of the MaRIUS project is large and covers<br />
physical and social science topics including: drought<br />
governance; drought options and management;<br />
community responses and environmental<br />
competency.<br />
It includes climatic aspects of drought and the<br />
derivation of a synthetic ‘drought event library’;<br />
hydrological responses both on a catchment and<br />
national scale; effects on water quality including<br />
nutrient concentration in rivers and algal<br />
concentrations in reservoirs, and effect of land use<br />
change; the ramifications on water resources on<br />
the Thames catchment and also nationally. It also<br />
includes the impact of drought and water scarcity<br />
on terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems; agriculture<br />
and farming; the economy; and on electricity<br />
production.<br />
MaRIUS has developed new methodologies,<br />
datasets and models for the analysis of drought<br />
and water scarcity impacts on river flow, water<br />
quality, ecology, farming, the economy, and how<br />
these combine to affect people.<br />
Some researchers in MaRIUS are using scenario<br />
modelling and case studies across a number of<br />
scales to understand both the drought impacts at<br />
a local level as well as the institutional decisionmaking<br />
by governments and water companies. The<br />
modelling work uses climatically rigourous drought<br />
scenarios and their impacts on water quality,<br />
agriculture, biodiversity and economic losses.<br />
In addition to computer modelling, social science<br />
and stakeholder engagement are a key part of the<br />
project, helping us to understand the role of the<br />
community, institutions, regulators and markets in<br />
drought management.<br />
The project leader is Professor Jim Hall at the<br />
Environmental Change Institute, University of<br />
Oxford<br />
mariusdroughtproject.org<br />
9
DWS<br />
Projects<br />
ENDOWS<br />
aboutdrought.info<br />
ENDOWS (Engaging diverse stakeholders and<br />
publics with outputs from the <strong>Drought</strong> and<br />
Water Scarcity Programme) brings together the<br />
successful stakeholder engagement elements of the<br />
four <strong>Drought</strong> and Water Scarcity (DWS) projects<br />
to further develop and promote understanding of<br />
the key messages from the programme. Building<br />
on the activities of DRY, IMPETUS, MaRIUS and<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong>, ENDOWS is funded by the<br />
Research Councils to inform adaptation and<br />
management decisions before, during and after<br />
drought events, using the new data and findings of<br />
the DWS programme.<br />
ENDOWS has brought these activities together<br />
under the banner ‘<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong>’ an accessible<br />
programme of informed engagement with<br />
regulators, industry, business, policy-makers,<br />
communities and sector organisations.<br />
David Throup/Environment Agency<br />
Knowledge Exchange is a key function of <strong>About</strong><br />
<strong>Drought</strong>, facilitating effective networking between<br />
the research community and stakeholder<br />
communities; encouraging the building of reliable<br />
contacts and stimulating new working relationships<br />
and accelerating the speed at which the outputs<br />
of the DWS programme are being implemented<br />
to support evidence-based decisions in drought<br />
planning and management.<br />
The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Showcase</strong> is a one-stop crosssectoral<br />
forum bringing all the DWS projects<br />
together in one place on one day. Stakeholders and<br />
decision-makers from across the board can access<br />
the latest DWS programme developments, hear<br />
directly from the experts and give direct feedback.<br />
Experts from across the DWS programme can<br />
share their findings so far and invite feedback on<br />
how stakeholders want the information presented<br />
to best support policy and business decisions.<br />
It is planned to hold a final <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong><br />
<strong>Showcase</strong> in 2019.<br />
The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> website http://www.<br />
<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>.info is being developed as an<br />
authoritative source of expertise, and as a publicly<br />
available platform for informed comment and<br />
opinion. The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> Twitter account<br />
@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong> highlights drought-related news<br />
and opinions from the UK and around the world.<br />
10<br />
@<strong>About</strong><strong>Drought</strong>
Newsletter<br />
<strong>Event</strong> debrief: Business impacts of water scarcity<br />
What are the potential impacts of drought on UK<br />
businesses? And what are the priorities when it comes<br />
to sharing information about water scarcity? These<br />
were two themes discussed at a Business Stakeholder<br />
workshop held at UWE, Bristol, on 31.10.17.<br />
Discussions pointed up uncertainty about the<br />
future, and the need for earlier warning systems<br />
(for businesses to understand with greater lead time<br />
when water restrictions would occur; the later the<br />
warnings, the more expensive it becomes). Read more<br />
at: http://aboutdrought.info/event-debrief-20171031/,<br />
and if your business could contribute to this UK-wide<br />
discussion, please contact: Lindsey.McEwen@uwe.ac.uk<br />
Films are available from MaRIUS Live! and are published<br />
at http://aboutdrought.info/marius-managing-therisks-impacts-and-uncertainties-of-drought-andwater-scarcity-live/<br />
and on the MaRIUS website<br />
mariusdroughtproject.org.<br />
If you attended MaRIUS LIVE! But have not yet<br />
given your feedback, please do so here: https://goo.gl/<br />
forms/18gGmNXzllKJWlqh1.<br />
The post event delegate pack, including slide<br />
presentations and other materials, are available here:<br />
drive.google.com/drive/folders/1axroXhYqRjnTdkxt1-<br />
OdVpuzCTKpuMRc?usp=sharing<br />
<strong>Event</strong> debrief: Which communities and why?<br />
<strong>Event</strong> debrief: MaRIUS LIVE!<br />
Trevor Bishop, Director of Strategy and Planning<br />
at OFWAT, described MaRIUS as “one of the most<br />
important bits of research that we’ve seen in drought<br />
and water scarcity” as more than 80 delegates met<br />
to hear presentations setting out the findings of the<br />
project’s research and the outputs available for use.<br />
The project researchers outlined their findings on the<br />
effects of drought on people and the environment, on<br />
government, communities, water quality and resources,<br />
ecology, agriculture, the economy and electricity supply.<br />
How best do we connect a diverse range of publics<br />
and communities with research arising from the NERC<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> and Water Scarcity research programme?<br />
This was a theme discussed at the first Community<br />
Stakeholder workshop held at UWE, Bristol on<br />
27.10.17. This group forms the basis of a ‘community of<br />
practice’, developing and testing evidence that can be<br />
used in engaging communities in drought risk decisionmaking.<br />
Read more at: http://aboutdrought.info/eventdebrief-20171027/,<br />
and if you or your organisation<br />
would like to get involved, please contact: Lindsey.<br />
McEwen@uwe.ac.uk<br />
Click here to sign up<br />
11
Programme<br />
9.15<br />
10.00<br />
10.15<br />
11.30<br />
12.30<br />
13.30<br />
14.30<br />
14.35<br />
15.35<br />
15.55<br />
16.40 - 17.30<br />
12<br />
Registration & networking<br />
Project stands<br />
Welcome - Jamie Hannaford and Sally Stevens<br />
Opening Remarks from the Funders – Ruth Kelman (NERC)<br />
Plenary Session<br />
Chair: John Bloomfield, BGS<br />
Views from stakeholders<br />
Stacey Sharman (Defra)<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>s: Defra’s perspective<br />
Steven Wade (Atkins)<br />
<strong>Drought</strong>: challenges and opportunities, a water industry perspective<br />
Ana-Maria Millan (Consumer Council for Water)<br />
Saving water: seeing the bigger picture<br />
Highlights from the DWS Programme<br />
• Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s (Jamie Hannaford)<br />
• IMPETUS (Len Shaffrey)<br />
• MaRIUS (Helen Gavin)<br />
• DRY (Lindsey McEwen)<br />
Primer on ENDOWS (Jamie Hannaford)<br />
1st interactive session - Parallel sessions<br />
• Agriculture<br />
• Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
• Data<br />
Lunch<br />
Project stands<br />
Waterways Walk leaves at 1pm.<br />
2nd session<br />
• <strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
• Water Supply 1: Modelling and Methodologies<br />
• Environment<br />
3rd session<br />
• Communities<br />
• Water Supply 2: Governance and Regulation<br />
• Data<br />
Afternoon break<br />
Project stands<br />
Plenary feedback and panel discussion (breakout<br />
group leads & speakers) and Q&A<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> research and management: what’s next?<br />
Closing comments from Paul Hickey (EA)<br />
Drinks<br />
Stands & Networking
Speakers<br />
Guest Speakers<br />
Paul Hickey, Deputy Director - Water Resources, Environment Agency<br />
Stacy Sharman, Head of Research in the Analysis and Evidence team, working in Water and<br />
Flood Risk Management, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs<br />
Steven Wade, Associate Director for Climate and Resilience, Atkins<br />
Ana-Maria Millan, Policy Manager, Consumer Council for Water<br />
For NERC<br />
Ruth Kelman, Science Programmes Officer Natural Environment Research Council<br />
For DWS<br />
Jamie Hannaford, Leader, Hydrological Status and Outlooks group, Centre for Ecology &<br />
Hydrology; DWS Programme Co-ordination Chair and Principal Investigator, ENDOWS and<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong>s<br />
Dr Helen Gavin, Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, MaRIUS<br />
Prof Lindsey McEwen, Professor in Environmental Management, Centre for Water, Communities<br />
and Resilience, UWE Bristol, DRY<br />
Prof Len Shaffrey, Professor of Climate Science, NCAS, University of Reading, IMPETUS<br />
13
14
<strong>Showcase</strong><br />
Timetable<br />
Sessions content<br />
15
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Professor Jerry Knox, Cranfield University (Facilitator)<br />
Dr Ivan Grove, Harper Adams University<br />
Dr Dolores Rey, Cranfield University<br />
Dr Gloria Salmoral, Cranfield University<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
Four ‘flash talks’ described below, were followed by an<br />
open discussion, led by Jerry Knox, addressing some of<br />
the key questions raised in the presentations.<br />
A water strategy for the agricultural and<br />
horticultural sector (Jerry Knox) - a synopsis of<br />
progress in the ongoing process to develop a water<br />
strategy for the agricultural and horticultural sectors.<br />
This is intended to support and guide the industry in<br />
securing ‘a fair share of water’ and is being co-designed<br />
with key informants who will likely be most impacted<br />
by pending changes in water abstraction licensing and<br />
regulatory reform.<br />
What is the value of secondary water markets<br />
for abstractors? (Dolores Rey) - Defra has signalled<br />
support for rapid water trading to allow abstractors<br />
to share access to water quickly, but there is little<br />
understanding of the advantages and disadvantages<br />
of such a system, how it would work in reality, or<br />
how these secondary markets might fit with the new<br />
abstraction system. Lola reported on an ongoing<br />
research project aimed at providing Defra with<br />
policy-relevant recommendations for how secondary<br />
markets might be designed, implemented and managed<br />
in England to efficiently and effectively improve UK<br />
resilience to drought and water scarcity, reducing<br />
associated economic damages to the agricultural and<br />
food sectors.<br />
Risk of economic impacts to agricultural irrigation<br />
due to drought management (Gloria Salmoral) - an<br />
overview of a spatially explicit national risk assessment<br />
of the economic losses in irrigated agriculture under<br />
drought conditions from England and Wales in three<br />
uneven climatic periods: baseline (1975-2004), near<br />
future (2020-2049) and far future (2070-2099).<br />
Does climate change mean crop change? (Ivan<br />
Grove ) - an overview of research undertaken in the<br />
DRY Project (part of the UK <strong>Drought</strong> and Water s<br />
Scarcity programme) on crop and drought experiments,<br />
and some reflections on the resilience of crops.<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
This was a great opportunity to contribute to developing thinking around agriculture, water scarcity and drought.<br />
Thoughts were given on questions such as:<br />
• Is water really that important for agriculture? How might a strategy help the industry?<br />
• What water-related risks are facing the industry? How should industry engage with other sectors to reduce<br />
future vulnerability?<br />
• Is it important to prioritise UK water for food (crops) in dry periods?<br />
• What are the barriers to crop change from growers and consumers?<br />
• What economic losses due to water restrictions might arise in the future? What measures might mitigate these<br />
losses?<br />
• How could collaborative management between irrigators and water authorities during drought conditions be<br />
improved?<br />
16
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
17
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
18
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
19
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
20
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
21
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
22
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
23
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
24
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
25
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
26
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
27
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
28
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
29
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
30
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
31
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
32
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
33
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
34
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
35
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
36
Interactive Sessions<br />
Agriculture<br />
37
Interactive Sessions<br />
Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Session Leader: Jamie Hannaford, Leader, Hydrological Status and Outlooks Group, CEH<br />
Discussion Facilitator: Dr Ingo Schüder, Business Development Manager (training), CEH<br />
Richard Davis, Senior Advisor, National Water Resources Hydrology Team, Environment Agency<br />
Lucy Barker, Hydrological Analyst, CEH<br />
Professor Len Shaffrey, National Centre for Atmospheric Science and University of Reading<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
While little can be done to prevent droughts occurring,<br />
actions can be taken to mitigate drought impacts<br />
on society and the environment. To support the<br />
implementation of such actions, drought monitoring<br />
and early warning (MEW) systems are a vital part of<br />
drought preparedness and planning. MEW includes<br />
tools for both situation monitoring (‘where are we<br />
now’) and forecasting (‘What will happen next’) over a<br />
range of timescales from a few days to seasons ahead<br />
and beyond. There is already substantial, operational<br />
MEW activity underway in the UK (e.g. the EA’s Water<br />
Situation Reports, CEH/BGS/Met Office Hydrological<br />
Summaries and Outlooks) and MEW activities are<br />
carried out by stakeholders across the full spectrum<br />
of organisations involved in drought management.<br />
Nevertheless, stakeholder engagement within the<br />
DWS programme has identified a number of gaps in<br />
existing MEW, and opportunities for improved systems<br />
in future.<br />
This interactive session presented some of the<br />
outcomes of DWS Programme engagement around<br />
MEW needs for a range of stakeholders, and also heard<br />
directly from the Environment Agency, as key decisionmakers,<br />
about priority needs in this area. Delegates<br />
heard highlights of the science emerging from the DWS<br />
programme. In particular: (i) how programme datasets<br />
and tools for mapping and visualisation could support<br />
more dynamic, interactive situation monitoring in<br />
future (ii) how recent DWS Programme advances in<br />
meteorological and hydrological seasonal forecasting<br />
could be used to support improved decision-making in<br />
future. It concluded with a facilitated discussion aimed<br />
at mapping out key priorities for MEW based around<br />
achievable outcomes from the final stage of the DWS<br />
programme, ENDOWS.<br />
Hurstwood Reservoir during the 2010 drought<br />
©United Utilities<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
This session attracted delegates engaged in, or interested in, drought planning and management and keen to find<br />
out how drought monitoring and forecasting systems can help them. They found out about the latest science<br />
emerging in this area, and how it can aid decision-making. Delegates met the researchers and participated in<br />
discussions with the team and other stakeholders, finding out about opportunities to get involved with ongoing<br />
research and knowledge exchange activities.<br />
Delegates also visited a stand presenting on monitoring and early warning and played our interactive forecasting game<br />
during the evening networking session.<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
45
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
46
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
47
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
48
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
49
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
50
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
51
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
52
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
53
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
54
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
55
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
56
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Monitoring & Early Warning<br />
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Data<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Session Leader: Matt Fry, CEH (<strong>Drought</strong>s programme data coordinator)<br />
Simon Parry, <strong>Drought</strong> researcher, CEH (New past drought data)<br />
Dr Alison Kay, Senior modeller, CEH (New future scenario data)<br />
Dr Katie Smith, Hydrological modeller, CEH (Interactive tools for data access)<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
Data for drought understanding<br />
The <strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong>s programme is releasing a huge<br />
number of drought datasets, and is developing tools to<br />
make this data easier to access for end users.<br />
This interactive session:<br />
• provided more detail on the datasets being produced<br />
(historic data and reconstructions, future scenarios,<br />
social and socio-economic data)<br />
• described the tools planned for making data access<br />
simpler<br />
• provided a chance to discuss potential uses and users<br />
of this data, and identify gaps<br />
• allowed attendees to “vote” to help prioritise<br />
activities in this area.<br />
Datasets being released by programme partners<br />
include:<br />
• Historic Met Office rain gauge data enhanced with<br />
newly digitised gauges to improve coverage (and<br />
updated gridded rainfall datasets) back to the 1860s.<br />
• Gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (already<br />
released) from 1891<br />
• Reconstructed / modelled daily river flows from 1891<br />
for a selection of gauged catchments from 3 models:<br />
Grid-to-Grid, AirGR and Dynamic TopModel<br />
• Reconstructed / modelled gridded (1km) monthly<br />
river flows and soil moisture from 1891 from the<br />
Grid-to-Grid model<br />
• Reconstructed historic groundwater level series for<br />
50 boreholes from 1891.<br />
• Extended standardised drought indicators based on<br />
past rainfall, river flow and groundwater level datasets<br />
• Probabilistic scenario data (100 ensemble members)<br />
for two future periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099)<br />
under a high emission scenario, including full gridded<br />
climate outputs, and daily and monthly river flow and<br />
soil moisture series<br />
• An inventory of references to past droughts, from<br />
national, regional and agricultural media, parliamentary<br />
debate, and personal histories.<br />
• A database of UK reservoir development<br />
A full list can be seen by clicking here<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
The session described these datasets in more detail. Some tools for enhanced data access were demonstrated<br />
and discussions enabled prioritisation of future work:<br />
• What derived datasets would be useful (e.g. catchment average series, change factors for future scenarios, etc)?<br />
• What real-time drought metrics would be of interest?<br />
• How can we facilitate ease of access to data, e.g. web services, example code, user guidance?<br />
• How can user interfaces make this data easier to pick up and use?<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
79
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Data<br />
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Environment<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Dr Francois Edwards, CEH, Wallingford<br />
Professor Paul Whitehead, Oxford University<br />
Dr Pam Berry, Oxford University<br />
Dr Ingo Schüder, CEH, Wallingford (Facilitator)<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
Delegates heard three ‘flash talks’ described on<br />
the right, following which Ingo Schüder facilitated a<br />
40-minute open discussion addressing some of the key<br />
questions raised in the presentations.<br />
Woodlands (Pam Berry)<br />
A synopsis of our knowledge on the possible impacts<br />
of droughts on trees and woodlands in the UK, based<br />
on modelling undertaken in the UK <strong>Drought</strong>s and<br />
Water Scarcity Programme.<br />
Water quality (Paul Whitehead)<br />
A brief overview of impacts of low flows and climate<br />
change on water quality and phytoplankton in UK rivers<br />
based of low flow and drought research undertaken in<br />
the UK <strong>Drought</strong>s and Water Scarcity Programme.<br />
River Ems, Summer 2012 ©Francois Edwards<br />
Freshwater (Francois Edwards)<br />
An overview of ecological health and resilience to water<br />
scarcity in UK rivers: key messages and knowledge gaps<br />
based on research undertaken in the UK <strong>Drought</strong>s and<br />
Water Scarcity Programme.<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
Delegates contributed to developing thinking around<br />
the environment, water scarcity and drought on<br />
questions such as:<br />
• How should trade-offs between environmental flows<br />
and water supply during a drought be communicated?<br />
• What might a new set of intuitive drought and water<br />
scarcity indicators for the environment look like?<br />
• What might be some of the implications of water<br />
scarcity and drought for forestry and conservation of<br />
woodlands in Great Britain?<br />
• What might be some of the implications for<br />
conservation and forestry?<br />
• How should drought be defined from a water quality<br />
perspective?<br />
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
86
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
88
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Environment<br />
89
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Environment<br />
90
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Environment<br />
91
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
93
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
95
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
98
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
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Environment<br />
101
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Water Supply 1<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Session Leader: Dr Helen Gavin, Environmental<br />
Change Institute, University of Oxford<br />
Paul Hickey, Environment Agency<br />
Jamie Hannaford, CEH<br />
Dr Gemma Coxon, University of Bristol<br />
Dr Mohammad Mortazavi, University of Oxford<br />
Professor Len Shaffrey, University of Reading<br />
Dr Chris Decker, University of Oxford<br />
Dr John Bloomfield, BGS<br />
Nick Honeyball, Affinity Water<br />
WHAT WERE THESE SESSIONS ABOUT?<br />
Water Supply 1: Modelling and Methodologies<br />
Water Supply 2: Governance and Regulation<br />
The policy-making and decision-making landscape<br />
for droughts and water scarcity is changing with<br />
implications for many stakeholders: the 2014 Water<br />
Act’s duty of resilience significantly affects water<br />
companies; the first examination of water resources at<br />
a scale covering England and Wales (Water UK 2016)<br />
advocated a more strategic approach to the analysis<br />
and management of drought risk; and discussions<br />
have commenced on introducing formal regional<br />
management of water resources.<br />
While the UK has a well evolved framework for<br />
drought and water resources planning, there is a need<br />
to enhance robustness, particularly with regard to<br />
future droughts. Similarly, while hydrological monitoring<br />
is advanced, drought forecasts and outlooks remain<br />
uncertain, which hinders their uptake.<br />
The evidence being developed in this workstream<br />
has potential to inform operational water resources<br />
planning and drought management. We want<br />
to work with a range of stakeholders such as<br />
water companies, regulators, and consultancies<br />
to ensure our objectives will assist, namely:<br />
1. Develop standardised stress tests and tools for risk<br />
based water resources planning<br />
2. Provide recommendations and guidance for<br />
hydrological modelling in practical applications<br />
3. Develop tools to monitor, forecast and manage<br />
drought.<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
Within the two public water supply sessions delegates heard from invited practitioners on their perspectives and<br />
knowledge / data needs. Workstream researchers summarised their work and the existing and expected outputs.<br />
A discussion built on this flow of information to identify how the research can meet information needs and to<br />
connect people to create outputs of common use.<br />
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Water Supply 1<br />
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Water Supply 1<br />
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Water Supply 1<br />
105
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Water Supply 1<br />
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Water Supply 1<br />
107
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Water Supply 1<br />
108
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Water Supply 1<br />
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Water Supply 1<br />
110
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Water Supply 1<br />
111
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Water Supply 1<br />
112
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Water Supply 1<br />
113
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Water Supply 1<br />
114
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Water Supply 1<br />
115
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Water Supply 1<br />
116
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Water Supply 1<br />
117
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Water Supply 1<br />
118
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Water Supply 1<br />
119
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Water Supply 1<br />
120
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Water Supply 1<br />
121
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Water Supply 2<br />
122
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
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Water Supply 2<br />
130
Interactive Sessions<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
FACILITATORS AND PRESENTERS<br />
Session Leader: Dr Rebecca Pearce, University of Exeter<br />
Dr Carmen Dayrell Gomes Da Costa, University of Lancaster<br />
Dr Helen Baker, University of Lancaster<br />
Dr Dolores Rey Vicario, Cranfield University<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
How do we talk about drought?<br />
Communicating drought information presents many<br />
difficulties, not least deciding when to officially announce<br />
a drought, identifying how best to describe the<br />
situation and choosing the most appropriate language<br />
to use. The dynamics of the situation inevitably give<br />
rise to satirical jibes if it rains and a blaming culture if<br />
it doesn’t. To many, the word drought is just shorthand<br />
for hosepipe ban.<br />
Based on the evidence provided, discussions focused on<br />
the true meaning of drought to those who experience<br />
them. We discussed the answer to the question:<br />
How do we talk about drought and how can we<br />
improve our drought communications?<br />
In this interactive session we carefully examined<br />
some of the ways that droughts have previously been<br />
discussed in national, regional and local media. We<br />
compared these discourses with oral history narratives<br />
based on memories of past droughts.<br />
We drew on the newly released Historic <strong>Drought</strong><br />
Inventory: a collection of news articles, official reports<br />
and personal diary entries relating to some of the key<br />
droughts in living memory. We also looked at fresh<br />
analysis of media uses of the word drought and the<br />
subjects it is often associated with, which are not<br />
always anything to do with diminishing water supplies.<br />
Tabloid newspaper analysis of the word ‘drought’ and its<br />
collocates - Dr Carmen Dayrell, ESRC Centre for Corpus<br />
Approaches to Social Science, University of Lancaster<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
Science communicators and others involved in<br />
preparing advice about droughts and water shortages<br />
for a variety of audiences, joined the session. They<br />
learned about new social research in this area, the<br />
Historic <strong>Drought</strong> Inventory and how best to utilise<br />
the resulting data. Delegates were able to review and<br />
refine their own drought communication methods.<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
134
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
135
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
136
Interactive Sessions<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
137
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
139
Interactive Sessions<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
144
Interactive Sessions<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
145
Interactive Sessions<br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Narratives<br />
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Interactive Sessions<br />
Communities<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Session Leader: Professor Lindsey McEwen, Centre for Water, Communities and Resilience, UWE Bristol<br />
Professor Mike Wilson, School of Arts, English and Drama, Loughborough University<br />
Dr Liz Roberts, Centre for Water, Communities and Resilience, UWE Bristol<br />
Dr Ragab Ragab, CEH, Wallingford<br />
WHAT WAS THIS SESSION ABOUT?<br />
Storying drought with communities: who are the<br />
harbingers of drought and the watershed thinkers?<br />
This session explored how stories and storytelling<br />
can come into the same space as specialist science in<br />
drought risk decision-making (past, present and future)<br />
at a catchment scale.<br />
During the session, delegates:<br />
• thought about catchments as units in place-based,<br />
water thinking in a drought risk context<br />
• explored what stories bring to the table in terms of<br />
perceptions and behaviours<br />
• shared stories that have emerged from catchments in<br />
the DRY project, identifying key groups who are already<br />
sensitised to prolonged dry periods. These included<br />
allotment holders and gardeners – already exercising<br />
water thinking scaling up from the hyperlocal<br />
• shared some of DRY’s video reflections on the<br />
storying process as prompts for group discussion<br />
• shared ‘hands on’ experience of our processes of<br />
crowd tagging of stories and active listening, and<br />
• showcased some of the ways to integrate stories and<br />
science through story mapping, bite-sized science and<br />
catchment-based drought impact indices.<br />
‘Visioning water adaptations’ - one participant’s storyboard<br />
from a community storytelling workshop in the Bevills Leam<br />
catchment in the Fens.<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
Delegates left with:<br />
• a better understanding of how storytelling can contribute to evidence bases for local water management and<br />
drought risk decision-making<br />
• new insights into the issues and opportunities in bringing storytelling and science together in drought risk<br />
decision-making<br />
• experience of being hands-on in the DRY process of making stories searchable and the value of active listening<br />
in those processes<br />
• new insights into the strategies experimented on in DRY to bring stories and science together as an evidence<br />
base for decision-making<br />
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Interactive Sessions<br />
Waterways Walk<br />
SPEAKERS<br />
Session Leader: Dr Kevin Grecksch, British Academy <strong>Post</strong>doctoral Fellow, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies,<br />
University of Oxford<br />
Dr Bettina Lange, Associate Professor of Law and Regulation, Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford<br />
Other speakers included local stakeholders and showcase event participants<br />
INTRODUCTION<br />
Kevin Grecksch, a social scientist at the University of<br />
Oxford’s Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, specialising<br />
in water governance and climate change adaptation,<br />
led this informative walk along the canals of central<br />
Birmingham and the city centre. Kevin was involved<br />
in the MaRIUS drought project where he investigated<br />
drought and water scarcity management options in<br />
England and Wales.<br />
The 90-minute walk stopped along the route for<br />
insights from stakeholders and to exchange ideas.<br />
This walk was part of the ENDOWS work task<br />
‘Innovation, Communities, and Corporate Water’,<br />
which is also led by Kevin Grecksch. The work task’s aim<br />
is to gain a deeper understanding of water efficiency<br />
campaigns with public sector organisations - schools,<br />
universities, hospitals, council buildings.<br />
WHAT HAPPENED<br />
The walk provided space for informal discussions of questions such as:<br />
• What is the value of water?<br />
• How do people experience water efficiency campaigns?<br />
• What role should citizens play in the management of drought and water scarcity?<br />
• What water efficiency campaigns would you be interested in contributing to?<br />
• Have you participated in water efficiency campaigns at your workplace?<br />
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149
Datasets<br />
The NERC UK <strong>Drought</strong> and Water Scarcity Programme is releasing a number of datasets over the next 18<br />
months together with interfaces for accessing and visualising data over the web and guidance for use of the data.<br />
For more information on these datasets, please email Matt Fry (mfry@ceh.ac.uk).<br />
Find this information online by clicking here<br />
Historic hydrometeorological<br />
data<br />
Click here for the <strong>About</strong><br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Datasets<br />
• Enhanced historic rain gauge data, and updated 5km rainfall grids back to the<br />
1860s [Met Office].<br />
• Historic catchment average daily rainfall series for selected catchments, 1861-<br />
2015 [Met Office / CEH].<br />
• Historic gridded Potential Evapotranspiration (PET), monthly and daily 5km<br />
grids, 1891-2015, based on temperatures [CEH].<br />
• Historic Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid + catchments, 1862-<br />
2015 [CEH].<br />
• Historic Standardised Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI), 5km grid +<br />
catchments, 1891-2015 [CEH].<br />
• Reconstructed/modelled historic daily river flow series for gauged catchments<br />
from 3 models, 1891-2015: Grid-to-Grid [CEH] AirGR [CEH], Dynamic TopModel<br />
[University of Bristol].<br />
• Reconstructed / modelled historic monthly gridded river flow and soil moisture<br />
for UK from the Grid-to-Grid model, 1km grid, 1891-2015 [CEH].<br />
• Reconstructed historic groundwater level series for 50 boreholes, 1891-2015<br />
[BGS].<br />
• Historic drought indicators (SSI, SGI) from reconstructed streamflow and<br />
borehole records, 1891-2015 [CEH, BGS].<br />
Near realtime<br />
droughtrelated<br />
metrics<br />
The following drought-related metrics have been focussed on within the <strong>Drought</strong><br />
and Water Scarcity programme, and could become accessible in near-real time<br />
should this be a requirement from users:<br />
• Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), 5km grid + catchments, monthly [CEH]<br />
– already available via the CEH <strong>Drought</strong> Portal<br />
• Standardised Streamflow Index (SSI), selected gauging stations, monthly [CEH]<br />
• Standardised Groundwater Level Index (SGI), selected boreholes, monthly<br />
[BGS]<br />
• Hydro-ecological drought metrics, under development within the projects<br />
[CEH]<br />
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Datasets<br />
Climate change<br />
projection data<br />
Click here for the <strong>About</strong><br />
<strong>Drought</strong> Datasets<br />
Probabilistic time series based on the Weather at Home (W@H) event set (100<br />
ensemble members for each time slice) for a baseline period (1974-2004) and<br />
two future periods (2020-2049 and 2070-2099) under the RCP8.5 high emission<br />
scenario.<br />
• Full gridded climate outputs including PET, daily / monthly on ~25km grid<br />
(University of Oxford)<br />
• (Dependent on user requirements) Catchment average rainfall, temperature<br />
and PET for gauged catchments<br />
• Daily river flow series at gauged catchments: Grid-to-Grid [CEH], Dynamic<br />
TopModel [University of Bristol]<br />
• Gridded monthly flows and soil moisture from Grid-to-Grid, 1km grid [CEH]<br />
• (Dependent on user requirements) Summary grids and maps of this data, e.g.<br />
change factors for future time periods for key statistics (annual / monthly / seasonal<br />
flows, etc.)<br />
Daily grids of hydrological variables (runoff, soil moisture, etc.) under UKCP09<br />
climate projections for seven representative catchments across the UK for<br />
three future periods (2020s, 2050s ,2080s), with 100 realisations, modelled with<br />
Di-CHASM [CEH]<br />
New Social and Socio-economic datasets<br />
The multi-disciplinary UK <strong>Drought</strong> and Water Scarcity programme is also producing a wide range of data outputs<br />
from research activities in many disciplines. Some of these outputs are listed below, and others will be added as<br />
they are produced and identified from the component projects.<br />
Cross-sectoral<br />
inventory of<br />
past droughts<br />
Visit www.aboutdrought.info<br />
for datasets release updates.<br />
References to past droughts from a variety of sectors, integrated into a consistent<br />
format to capture spatial and temporal reporting of drought:<br />
• References to droughts in the agricultural media. 2000+ entries referring to<br />
drought within UK agricultural media between 1975 and 2012, including information<br />
on farm classification.<br />
• References to droughts in legislation. 500+ entries referring to drought within UK<br />
legislation between 1976 and 2012, from Hansard debates and other government<br />
publications.<br />
• References to droughts in newspapers. Thousands of spatially located entries<br />
referring to drought within local and national newspapers from 1800 to 2014.<br />
• References to droughts in oral histories. 1000 entries referring to drought from<br />
dozens of drought-focussed oral histories from across the UK, from water industry<br />
experts and members of the public.<br />
Database of resevoir contruction: dataset of database construction, with capacity<br />
information, from 1800 to 2000.<br />
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Organisations who attended the<br />
<strong>About</strong> <strong>Drought</strong> <strong>Showcase</strong><br />
Organisation<br />
Affinity Water<br />
AHDB<br />
Airbus Defence and Space<br />
Anglian Water<br />
Artesia Consulting Ltd<br />
Atkins<br />
British Geological Survey<br />
Canal & River Trust<br />
Cardiff University<br />
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology<br />
Centre for Socio-Legal Studies, University of Oxford<br />
CLA<br />
Consumer Council for Water<br />
Coventry University<br />
Cranfield University<br />
db+a<br />
DCWW<br />
Defra<br />
DWI<br />
DWRconsult<br />
Environment Agency<br />
Environmental Aesthetic and Associate<br />
Environmental Change Institute<br />
ESRC<br />
Harper Adams University<br />
HR Wallingford<br />
Institute for Environmental Analytics<br />
Jacobs<br />
Lancaster University<br />
Loughborough University<br />
MOSL<br />
National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading<br />
National Infrastructure Commission<br />
National Trust<br />
Natural England<br />
Natural Resources Wales<br />
NERC<br />
NFU<br />
Nottingham Trent University<br />
Policy Connect<br />
RSPB<br />
RWE Generation UK<br />
Science Communication Unit, University of the West of England<br />
Scottish Water<br />
Severn Trent Water<br />
South West Water<br />
Organisation<br />
Southern Water<br />
Stantec<br />
Tapajos<br />
Thames Estuary Partnership<br />
Thames21 Ltd<br />
The Aire Rivers Trust<br />
UK Irrigation Association<br />
Uniper<br />
United Utilities<br />
Universiti Putra Malaysia<br />
University of Birmingham<br />
University of Bristol<br />
University of East Anglia<br />
University of Exeter<br />
University of Oxford<br />
University of the West of England, Bristol<br />
Wallingford HydroSolutions Ltd.<br />
Water Loss Research & Analysis Ltd, and LEAKSSuite website<br />
Waterwise<br />
Weather Logistics Ltd<br />
Yorkshire Water<br />
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