Sports Betting Magazine

Palace v Liverpool
Betting analysis and preview of the
game at Selhurst Park
Arsenal v Man Utd
Betting analysis and preview of the
game at the Emirates
Villa v Saints
Betting analysis and preview of
Monday’s televised game
odds compiler
f o o t b a l l b e t t i n g m a g a z i n e
ISSUE
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II

II
Odds Compiler

A Football Betting Magazine
with a betting preview of each English
Premier League game.
Each English Premier League game has
a two page spread with likely starting
line-ups and formation, average odds
from the bookmakers and true odds (by
removing the bookmakers profit margin). The
true odds allows the bettor to determine if a
certain bookmaker is giving value odds or not.
To further increase the bettor’s chance of
making a profit, expected goals are given and
these are used with the Poisson Formula to
give a chance for each likely correct score. See
the Glossary at the back for a description of
the Poisson Formula.
Odds are given as decimal odds (European
Odds format). These odds are easier for the
bettor to understand than fractional odds (UK
Odds format), although there is an Odds Ready
Reckoner in the back of this publication.
V
VII
IX
XI
XIII
XV
XVII
XIX
XXI
XXIII
Contents
Chelsea v West Bromwich Albion
Everton v West Ham United
Leicester City v Sunderland
Manchester City v Swansea City
Newcatle United v QPR
Stoke City v Burnley
Arsenal v Manchester United
Crystal Palace v Liverpool
Hull City v Tottenham Hotspur
Aston Villa v Southampton
XXV
XXVI
Odds Ready Reckoner
Glossary
III

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Courtois
Ivanovic
Cahill
Terry
Azpilicueta
Matic
Fabregas
Oscar
Hazard
Willian
Costa
Foster
Wisdom
Lescott
Dawson
Pocognoli
Yacob
Morrison
Dorrans
Brunt
Sessegnon
Berahino
Chelsea
v e r s u s W e s t B r o m w i c h
Chelsea’s main difference to when they last lined
up against West Brom at The Bridge is the
acquisition of Diego Costa (in for Eto’o) and the
midfield pairing of Fabregas & Matic (in for
Ramires & Lampard). Fabregas though, is a doubt
and Ramires may start in place of him.
Yacob, Brunt and Sessegnon are the only players
that should start and who were in the starting
eleven when West Brom met Chelsea last year
(9th November 2013).
The bookmakers made Chelsea 1.29 favourites
with a goal expectancy of 2.29 and their
counterparts 10.27 outsiders with a 0.78 goal
expectancy. The draw was priced at average odds
of 5.51. That match ended 2-2.
IV

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 2.40 0.61 1.79 3.01
Spreads 2.60 0.60 2.00 3.20
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.22 6.26 13.36 -5.4%
True Odds 1.25 7.06 17.62 0.0%
Chance 80.2% 14.2% 5.7% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
2 - 0 13.9% 7.17
3 - 0 11.6% 8.61
1 - 0 11.1% 8.97
2 - 1 8.5% 11.76
4 - 0 7.3% 13.78
3 - 1 7.1% 14.11
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Chelsea
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
West Bromwich Albion
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Courtois
Foster
Ivanovic
Cahill
Terry
Azpilicueta
Wisdom
Lescott
Dawson
Pocognoli
Fabregas
Matic
Yacob
Morrison
Willian
Oscar
Hazard
Dorrans
Sessegnon
Brunt
Costa
Berahino
V

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Howard
Coleman
Distin
Jagielka
Baines
McCarthy
Osman
Naismith
Barkley
McGeady
Lukaku
Adrian
Jenkinson
Reid
Collins
Creswell
Song
Kouyate
Noble
Downing
Valencia
Sakho
Toffees
v e r s u s W e s t H a m U n i t e d
Everton last played West Ham at Goodison Park
on 1st March this year. In their defence, John
Stones started but is unavailable for this
weekend’s game and Jagielka looks likely to start.
Baines is a doubt but should start. Everton should
also start with McCarthy and Osman in midfield
with Barry unavailable.
West Ham are almost completely changed (except
for Adrian, Collins, Noble and Downing). They are
especially stronger in the forward area with
Valencia and Sakho (who is a doubt) and have
been given a decent goal expectancy of 1.04 for
the upcoming match.
Everton were favourites last time out with average
odds of 1.49 and a goal expectancy of 1.96. West
Ham were 7.07 outsiders with a goal expectancy of
0.83.
VI

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.72 1.04 0.68 2.76
Spreads 1.80 1.10 0.70 2.90
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.77 3.65 4.57 -5.8%
True Odds 1.83 3.93 5.01 0.0%
Chance 54.6% 25.5% 20.0% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 1 11.1% 9.00
1 - 0 10.4% 9.63
2 - 1 9.8% 10.23
2 - 0 9.1% 10.94
0 - 1 6.3% 15.84
1 - 2 5.9% 16.82
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Everton
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
West Ham United
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Howard
Adrian
Coleman
Distin
McCarthy
Jagielka
Osman
Baines
Jenkinson Reid
Kouyate
Song
Collins
Noble
Creswell
Naismith
Barkley
McGeady
Downing
Lukaku
Valencia
Sakho
VII

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Schmeichel
De Laet
Morgan
Wasilewski
Schlupp
James
Cambiasso
Drinkwater
Vardy
Ulloa
Nugent
Pantilimon
Vergini
Brown
O’Shea
Reveillere
Cattermole
Larsson
Gomez
Johnson
Wickham
Fletcher
Foxes
v e r s u s S u n d e r l a n d
Leicester City line up with a strong starting eleven
and are made 2.13 favourites over Sunderland with
an average goal expectancy of 1.39 given to them
by the bookmakers.
Sunderland are without Giaccherini and Van
Aanholt amongst others and are given a rating of
1.04 for their attacking strength by the bookies.
The 1x2 and goal markets suggest a close game
with a 1-0 win or 1-1 draw looking the likeliest
scorelines.
VIII

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.39 1.04 0.35 2.43
Spreads 1.50 1.10 0.40 2.60
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 2.13 3.34 3.43 -6.0%
True Odds 2.23 3.58 3.68 0.0%
Chance 44.9% 27.9% 27.1% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 1 12.5% 8.01
1 - 0 11.7% 8.57
2 - 1 9.0% 11.05
0 - 1 8.6% 11.62
2 - 0 8.5% 11.82
0 - 0 8.0% 12.43
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Leicester City
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Sunderland
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Scmeichel
Pantilimon
De Lest
Morgan
Wasilewski
Schlupp
Vergini
O’Shea
Brown
Reveillere
James
Cambiasso
King
Drinkwater
Johnson
Cattermole
Gomez Larsson
Wickham
Ulloah
Vardy
Fletcher
IX

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Hart
Sagna
Mangala
Demichelis
Clichy
Navas
Toure
Fernando
Fernandinho
Nasri
Aguero
Fabianski
Rangel
Williams
Bartley
Taylor
Ki
Shelvey
Routledge
Montero
Sigurdsson
Bony
City
v e r s u s S w a n s e a C i t y
Manchester City won 3-0 the last time these two
sides met at the Etihad. Negredo and Nasri (two)
got the goals.
City have Kompany and Silva out with Dzeko a
doubt but all three never started in the 3-0 win.
Ashley Williams is the only player who should start
this weekend who also started in the 3-0 defeat.
Swansea are much stronger in the forward areas
compared to last time and this is reflected in their
goal expectancy of 0.86 (compared to 0.69).
Manchester City’s goal expectancy has been
decreased to 2.21 (from 2.42).
The odds last time out were 1.25 (Manchester City),
5.88 (the draw) and 11.95 (Swansea City).
X

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 2.21 0.86 1.35 3.07
Spreads 2.35 0.85 1.50 3.20
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.37 4.90 8.04 -5.8%
True Odds 1.41 5.42 9.53 0.0%
Chance 71.0% 18.5% 10.5% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
2 - 0 11.2% 8.89
1 - 0 9.9% 10.13
2 - 1 9.7% 10.34
3 - 0 8.5% 11.70
1 - 1 8.5% 11.78
3 - 1 7.4% 13.60
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Manchester City
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Swansea City
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Hart
Fabianski
Sagna
Mangala
Demichelis
Clichy
Rangel
Williams
Bartley
Taylor
Fernandinho
Fernando
Shelvey
Ki
Navas
Toure
Nasri
Montero
Sigurdsson
Routledge
Aguero
Bony
XI

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Krul
Janmaat
Dummett
S.Taylor
Haidara
Colback
Tiote
Sissoko
Ameobi
Cabella
Ayoze Perez
Green
Isla
Dunne
Caulker
Yun
Vargas
Sandro
Henry
Fer
Zamora
Austin
Magpies
v e r s u s Q u e e n s P a r k R a n g e r s
Newcastle will be missing Rolando Aarons,
Fabricio Coloccini, Siem De Jong, Jonas Gutierrez,
Gabriel Obertan, Davide Santon, Cheick Tiote and
Yanga-Mbiwa (away on loan). Papiss Cisse is a
doubt and young Ayoze Perez should start again.
Queens Park Rangers don’t have too many injury
worries and should line up with a strong starting
eleven. They will be without Rio Ferdinand
(suspended); Caulker & Dunne should form the
centre-back partnership.
XII

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.58 0.95 0.63 2.53
Spreads 1.70 1.00 0.70 2.70
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.78 3.59 4.57 -5.9%
True Odds 1.84 3.86 5.02 0.0%
Chance 54.2% 25.9% 19.9% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 0 12.1% 8.29
1 - 1 11.7% 8.55
2 - 0 9.9% 10.11
2 - 1 9.6% 10.43
0 - 0 7.4% 13.60
0 - 1 7.1% 14.02
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Newcastle United
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Queens Park Rangers
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Krul
Green
Janmaat
S. Taylor Dummett
Haidara
Isla
Dunne
Caulker
Yun
Colback
Anita
Vargas
Sandro
Henry
Fer
Sissoko
Cabella
Ayoze Perez
Ameobi
Austin
Zamora
XIII

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Begovic
Bardsley
Shawcross
Muniesa
Pieters
N’Zonzi
Sidwell
Bojan
Moses
Walters
Diouf
Heaton
Trippier
Duff
Shackell
Ward
Arfield
Jones
Marney
Boyd
Barnes
Ings
Stoke
v e r s u s B u r n l e y
Stoke City are missing a few players (including
Peter Odemwingie, Robert Huth and Glenn
Whelan). Bardsley and Wilson are doubtful
although the former may well start.
The bookmakers and spread betting firms make
this one a low goalscoring affair with a 1-0 Stoke
City win the likeliest score-line at 13.9%. Burnley
on the other hand, only have a 6.9% chance of a
1-0 victory and a 16.6% chance of any kind of win.
XIV

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.59 0.80 0.79 2.39
Spreads 1.70 0.85 0.85 2.55
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 1.66 3.66 5.37 -6.2%
True Odds 1.72 3.96 6.04 0.0%
Chance 58.2% 25.3% 16.6% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 0 13.9% 7.17
2 - 0 11.5% 8.68
1 - 1 11.4% 8.74
2 - 1 9.4% 10.59
0 - 0 8.5% 11.82
0 - 1 6.9% 14.42
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Stoke City
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Burnley
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Begovic
Heaton
Bardsley
Shawcross
Muniesa
Pieters
Trippier
Duff
Shackell
Ward
N’Zonzi
Sidwell
Walters
Bojan
Moses
Arfield
Jones
Barnes
Marney
Boyd
Diouf
Ings
XV

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Szczesny
Chambers
Mertesacker
Monreal
Gibbs
Oxlade-Chamberlain
Flamini
Ramsey
Cazorla
Sanche
Welbeck
De Gea
Valencia
Smalling
Evans
Shaw
Carrick
Fellaini
Januzaj
Di Maria
Rooney
Van Persie
Gunners
V e r s u s M a n c h e s t e r U n i t e d
Arsenal still have some injury concerns (Arteta,
Debuchy, Koscielny and Ozil) with Giroud unlikely
to start and Welbeck a slight doubt.
It is difficult to say if Arsenal are weaker this time
than when they played United earlier this year in
February but defensively they had a stronger
defence (Sagna, Mertesacker, Koscielny, Gibbs)
and managed a clean sheet (0-0).
United only have Rojo out but they have a few
concerns going into this game with De Gea, Blind,
Jones, Young, Carrick, Shaw, Evans and Di Maria
all slight doubts.
1.37 (Arsenal) and 1.17 (United) were the expected
goals last time out which means Arsenal are
stronger favourites for this weekend’s game.
XVI

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.50 1.22 0.28 2.72
Spreads 1.60 1.30 0.30 2.90
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 2.18 3.44 3.23 -5.9%
True Odds 2.28 3.69 3.45 0.0%
Chance 43.9% 27.1% 29.0% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 1 11.8% 8.50
1 - 0 9.3% 10.72
2 - 1 9.1% 10.97
0 - 1 7.6% 13.18
1 - 2 7.4% 13.50
0 - 0 6.0% 16.61
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Arsenal
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Manchester United
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Szczesny
De Gea
Chambers
Mertesacker
Monreal
Gibbs
Valencia
Smalling
Evans
Shaw
Carrick
Chamberlain
Flamini
Ramsey
Cazorla
Januzaj
Fellaini
Rooney
Di Maria
Sanchez
Welbeck
Van Persie
XVII

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Speroni
Mariappa
Dann
Delaney
Ward
Zaha
McArthur
Jedinak
Bolasie
Chamakh
Campbell
Mignolet
Johnson
Skrtel
Lovren
Moreno
Sterling
Gerrard
Can
Henderson
Coutinho
Balotelli
Palace
v e r s u s L i v e r p o o l
Sturridge misses the game for Liverpool with
Balotelli and Henderson also slight doubts. This
has seen the odds on Liverpool drift over the last
week. Last time the two sides met at Selhurst
Park Liverpool had an average goal expectancy of
2.28 and a goal supremacy of +1.38. The biggest
difference of course was the inclusion of Suarez
and Sturridge in a game where both players
scored.
Jedinak is back for Palace after serving a
suspension and Ledley could feature in place of
McArthur if he is not fully fit for this weekend’s
game.
Palace were given a 0.90 goal expectancy last time
and a similar rating this time is probably fair.
XVIII

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 0.95 1.55 -0.60 2.50
Spreads 1.05 1.65 -0.60 2.70
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 4.37 3.53 1.83 -5.9%
True Odds 4.78 3.79 1.90 0.0%
Chance 20.9% 26.4% 52.7% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 1 11.9% 8.41
0 - 1 11.9% 8.41
0 - 2 9.5% 10.52
1 - 2 9.5% 10.52
0 - 0 7.4% 13.46
1 - 0 7.4% 13.46
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Crystal Palace
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Liverpool
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Speroni
Mignolet
Mariappa
Dann
Delaney
Ward
Johnson
Skrtel
Lovren
Moreno
Zaha
McArthur
Jedinak
Bolasie
Henderson
Gerrard
Can
Chamakh
Campbell
Coutinho
Balotelli
Sterling
XIX

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Jakupovic
Chester
Davies
McShane
Elmohamady
Livermore
Huddlestone
Diame
Brady
Ben Arfa
Hernandez
Lloris
Dier
Kaboul
Vertonghen
Rose
Eriksen
Capoue
Mason
Chadli
Kane
Adebayor
Hull
v e r s u s T o t t e n h a m H o t s p u r
Jelavic, Davies and Dawson are doubts for Hull. If
Jelavic does play, we could see Diame pushed
forward, behind Jelavic and Hernadez with Ben
Arfa making way.
Hull City last played Spurs at the KC Stadium on
1st February this year in a 1-1 draw. Hull were
given a goal supremacy of 1.05 and Spurs 1.39.
The odds were 3.69 (Hull), 3.36 (Draw) and 2.05
(Spurs).
Hull City perhaps have a slightly stronger team
than the one that played in February and
Tottenham’s is not much weaker or stronger. The
current goal expectancies are pretty much the
same for the upcoming match (1.04 Hull, 1.36
Spurs), although Hull are shorter this time with
odds of 3.41.
XX

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 1.04 1.36 -0.32 2.40
Spreads 1.15 1.50 -0.35 2.65
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 3.41 3.32 2.14 -6.2%
True Odds 3.67 3.56 2.24 0.0%
Chance 27.3% 28.1% 44.7% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
1 - 1 12.5% 7.98
0 - 1 11.4% 8.78
1 - 2 9.0% 11.16
1 - 0 8.8% 11.41
0 - 0 8.0% 12.55
2 - 1 6.9% 14.51
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Hull City
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Tottenham Hotspur
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Jakupovic
Lloris
Chester
Davies
McShane
Dier
Kaboul
Vertonghen
Rose
Elmohady
Livermore
Huddlestone
Diame
Brady
Eriksen
Capoue
Mason
Chadli
Ben Arfa
Hernandez
Kane
Adebayor
XXI

Odds Compiler
S T A R T I N G
XI
Guzan
Lowton
Vlaar
Senderos
Cissokho
Westwood
Cleverley
Sanchez
N’Zogbia
Weimann
Agbonlahor
Forster
Clyne
Fonte
Alderweireld
Bertrand
Davis
Wanyama
Schneiderlin
Tadic
Mane
Pelle
Villa
v e r s u s S o u t h a m p t o n
The home side are without Delph, Hutton, Gardner
and Benteke (banned). They could also face some
problems in defence as Vlaar and Senderos
struggle for fitness and backup player, Nathan
Baker is doubtful.
As well as long term absentees James Rodriguez
and Ward-Prowse, Saints have some concerns
over the fitness of Morgan Schneiderlin, Dusan
Tadic and Steven Davis, although Jack Cork and
Shane Long have proven to be adequate
replacements.
The last match between Villa and Saints at Villa
Park ended 0-0 (19th April 2014) with Villa given a
1.10 goal expectancy (Benteke did not play) to
Saints’ 1.34 (Lallana and Lambert played).
XXII

Expected Goals
Betting Company ExpG Home ExpG Away Goal Supremacy Goals Total
Bookmakers 0.81 1.53 -0.72 2.34
Spreads 0.85 1.65 -0.80 2.50
Odds
Home Draw Away Margin
Average Odds 4.85 3.55 1.75 -5.9%
True Odds 5.36 3.82 1.81 0.0%
Chance 18.6% 26.2% 55.2% 0.0%
Likely Scores (according to Poisson Distribution)
Scoreline Chance Implied Odds
0 - 1 14.1% 7.07
1 - 1 11.7% 8.52
0 - 2 11.2% 8.90
1 - 2 9.3% 10.72
0 - 0 8.9% 11.25
1 - 0 7.4% 13.55
The Expected Goals in a match are the predicted amount
of goals each team will score, on average, against it’s
current opposition and is worked out from attack and
defence parameters, which are ratings that bookmakers
use for each team. Goal Supremacy is the average
margin of victory.
True Odds are the bookies odds minus their profit margin.
See Glossary for Poisson Distribution.
Aston Villa
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Southampton
P r e d i c t e d L i n e - u p
Guzan
Forster
Lowton
Vlaar
Senderos
Cissokho
Clyne
Fonte
Alderweireld
Bertrand
Westwood
Cleverley
Sanchez
Davis
Wanyama
Schneiderlin
Weimann
Agbonlahor
N’Zogbia
Tadic
Pelle
Mane
XXIII

Odds Compiler
Odds Ready Reckoner
Decimal
Fraction
Implied
Probability
1.2 1/5 83.3%
1.22 2.9 82.0%
1.25 1/4 80.0%
1.28 2/7 78.1%
1.3 3/10 76.9%
1.33 1/3 75.2%
1.35 7/20 74.1%
1.36 4/11 73.5%
1.4 2/5 71.4%
1.44 4/9 69.4%
1.45 9/20 69.0%
1.47 40/85 68.0%
1.5 1/2 66.7%
1.53 8/15 65.4%
1.57 4/7 63.7%
1.6 3/5 62.5%
1.62 8/13 61.7%
1.63 5/8 61.3%
1.66 4/6 60.2%
1.7 7/10 58.8%
1.72 8/11 58.1%
1.8 4/5 55.6%
1.83 5/6 54.6%
1.9 9/10 52.6%
1.91 10/11 52.4%
1.95 20/21 51.3%
2 1/1 50.0%
2.05 21/20 48.8%
2.1 11/10 47.6%
2.2 6/5 45.5%
2.25 5/4 44.4%
2.3 13/10 43.5%
2.38 11/8 42.0%
2.4 7/5 41.7%
2.5 6/4 40.0%
2.6 8/5 38.5%
Decimal
Fraction
Implied
Probability
2.63 13/8 38.0%
2.7 17/10 37.0%
2.75 7/4 36.4%
2.8 9/5 35.7%
2.88 15/8 34.7%
2.9 19/10 34.5%
3 2/1 33.3%
3.1 21/10 32.3%
3.13 85/40 31.9%
3.2 11/5 31.3%
3.25 9/4 30.8%
3.3 23/10 30.3%
3.33 100/30 30.0%
3.38 95/40 29.6%
3.4 12/5 29.4%
3.5 5/2 28.6%
3.6 13/5 27.8%
3.75 11/4 26.7%
3.8 14/5 26.3%
4 3/1 25.0%
4.2 16/5 23.8%
4.33 10/3 23.1%
4.5 7/2 22.2%
4.6 18/5 21.7%
5 4/1 20.0%
5.5 9/2 18.2%
6 5/1 16.7%
6.5 11/2 15.4%
7 6/1 14.3%
7.5 13/2 13.3%
8 7/1 12.5%
8.5 15/2 11.8%
9 8/1 11.1%
9.5 17/2 10.5%
10 9/1 10.0%
11 10/1 9.1%
Example: Decimal odds of 3.10 are equivalent to 2.1/1
(written as 21/10 in fractional odds).
decimal odds (3.10) - 1 = fractional odds (2.1/1 or 21/10)
Fractional odds to decimal odds:
(21 ÷ 10) + 1 = 3.1
Now you can convert this to the implied probability:
1 (100%) ÷ 3.1 = 0.3226 (32.26%)
How much will I win?
If you put £10.00 on odds of 8/13 (1.62), you would get
£16.20 back including your stake, so a £6.20 profit.
If you put £1.00 on odds of 15/2 (8.5), you would get
£8.50 back, so a £7.50 profit.
Staking Strategy
The Odds Ready Reckoner is ideal as a simple but
useful staking tool. If you want to win £100.00 from
each bet you place, then all you need to do is place the
percentage equivalent. E.G. If a team is 3/1 to win, you
place £25.00 (as the odds represent 25%) and you will
get £100.00 back. This is a better way to use your
betting money as the amount you are risking is
proportional to the chance of winning.
XXIV

Average Odds
The average odds from various bookmakers
Worldwide.
Expected/Predicted Goals
A team’s estimated goals that it should score in the
given game.
Implied Odds
An assumed chance, written as odds, that an event has
of happening.
Mean Average
The mean average is the average which we use in basic
maths. It is calculated by dividing the total number of
something by how many events. For example, if
Chelsea had conceded 1, 0, 0, 1, 1 and 2 goals in their
last six games, the average goals they have conceded
is 0.83.
5 (the total goals) divided by 6 (the number of
matches).
Poisson Distribution
A statistical model that uses the mean to calculate the
chance of absolute numbers. For example, if
Manchester United’s average goals per game is 2.08
(their mean average), then the Poisson formula will
calculate the chance of them scoring 0, 1, 2 and so on.
True Odds/Chance
These are the odds that do not have a bookmaker’s
margin applied. After the bookmakers have
incorporated their profit margin into the odds, they
are lower than what the true chance reflects.
XXV
Glossary

Odds Compiler
• ‘True Odds’ of every English Premiership game
• Goal Expectancy of each team
• Correct Score odds according to Poisson Distribution
• ‘True Chance’ of each result
• Likely line-ups and formations
Odds Compiler
XXVI