Business As Usual - LBA - Inpa

Loss of forest types across the
Brazilian Amazon: present &
projected
Bruce Nelson (Inpa/Geoma)‏
Juliana Stropp Carneiro (Inpa/Geoma)‏
Ana M.K. Albernaz (Museu
Goeldi/Geoma)‏
Britaldo Silveira Soares Filho (UFMG)‏
Conferência
LBA/Geoma/PPBio
2008 (apres 344)‏

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•
Two simple overlay operations
Intersect present & projected
deforestation surfaces with two proxies
for distinct biological niches:
1.
2.
Thematic map of forest types from Ibge/ Radam;
Slices of rainfall seasonality index.
Study area is the “original forest extent”
in the Brazilian Legal Amazon, as
defined by INPE-Prodes in 2006

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•
Assumed proxies for beta
diversity
Different forest types have different plant
communities:
Different slices of rainfall gradient have
distinct plant communities:
Abundace,
each spp
Climatic gradient

Beta diversity proxies Overlays
34 forest types (from IBGE, 1997)‏
Slices of rainfall seasonality index
(Walsh index derived from Worldclim)‏
original
forest extent
(Prodes)‏
Defor. as
of 2006
(Prodes)‏
Defor.
projected
for 2036
“Business As Usual”
(Britaldo Soares)‏

Prodes product quality and ease
of use are now greatly improved
•
•
•
Three years ago – many clouds and no-data
areas; required temporal mosaicking of 2001-
2002-2003 to reduce no-data areas; some
scenes were mis-registered between years;
Two years ago – good cumulative data up to
2004, but still many no-data patches from
clouds;
This year – cloud holes up to 2006 eliminated for
inferring the “original forest extent”; only ~1.5
scenes missing deforestation data.

IBGE/Radam vegetation map
Start with 164 vegetation
types

IBGE/Radam vegetation map
Consolidate into 34 types taken to be floristically distinct

IBGE/Radam vegetation map
Select 20 types which INPE-Prodes agrees are, or once
were, “forests”: i.e. >50% of their area is recognized as
such

IBGE/Radam vegetation map
Further reduce to 14 forest types whose original area was
at least 10,000 km2 (due to small scale of IBGE vegetation
map)‏

14 forest types left after
•On white sand
(3)‏
•Open types (4)‏
•Dense alluvial
•Dense t.f.
•Seasonal
(3)‏
•Riverine
shrubland
•Forested savana
filtering

Fourteen forest types

Analysis confined to “original
forest extent”, from Prodes

Losses quantified in black
areas, detected deforestation as
of 2006

Percent deforested (as of 2004)‏
Codes Full name
Deforested
area, km^2 % lost as of 2004
Fe1_al Seasonal forest on floodplain 4165 39
Fe4_semi_bs Seasonally semi-deciduous forest 74046 39
S5_flor Forested savanna (cerradão)‏ 18645 29
Fa_1_cipo_bs
Open rain forest, liana dominated, lowland
or submontane 75298 25
Fe2_deci_bs Seasonally deciduous forest 4770 20
P1_fluv_arbu Shrublands on new river deposits 2648 16
Fa2_palm_bs
Open rain forest, large palms dominate,
lowland or submontane 92473 15
Fa4_soro_bs
Open forest, Phenakospermum dominated,
lowland or submontane
Dense rain forest on lowland or
1066 15
Fd2_bs
Fa3_bamb_bs
submontane 180379 11
Open rain forest, bamboo dominated,
lowland or submontane 5418 10
Fd1_al Dense rain forest on floodplain 14047 4
C2_flor Forest on white sand 376 1
C4_tens_flom Ecotone: white sand / rain forest 142 1
C1_arbo Arborescent vegetation on white sand 88 0

The situation is as obvious as
the Emperor’s clothes…
Hein, olhem
as florestas
secas…

Beta diversity proxies
~40% loss of some
seasonal forests by
2006
34 forest types (from IBGE, 1997)‏
Slices of rainfall seasonality index
(Walsh index derived from Worldclim)‏
Original
forest extent
(Prodes)‏
Defor. as
of 2006
(Prodes)‏
Defor.
projected
for 2036
“Business As Usual”
(Britaldo Soares)‏
Overlays

Walsh rainfall seasonality
index
Walsh index measures intensity and duration of
the dry season in tropical forest, using the number
of months per year in each of four rainfall classes:
mm / month score
< 50 -2
50 - 100 -1
100 - 200 1
> 200 2
For each site or pixel, sum 12 monthly scores.
Add 0.5 for each month that falls at beginning
of a dry season.
Original forest
extent

Losses in each climate
niche as of 2006
• Losses exceed 60% of some climate
slices by 2006…
• High pressure on dry forests, low
pressure in wet area;
• Remaining dry forests are also highly
susceptible to ground fires and logging;
many are already highly degraded
Original forest
extent

Walsh climate
slices (2006)‏
Outlier dry forests
also attract
deforestation
• Only dry forest attracts
deforestation (few green pixels)‏
• Very little dry forest remains
(few dark grey pixels)‏
Remaining forest
Deforested by
2006

SimAmazônia (see the web site)
Model period 2001 to 2036 (Britaldo Soares projections for ARPA)
“Business As Usual” Infra-structure and governance levels
Landscape
projected for
2036

Walsh rainfall seasonality
index
• Losses projected to approach
100% in some dry forests by 2006
• Eleven consecutive slices of dry
forest will lose >75% of their area
Original forest
extent

Conservation priority: last large remnants of dry forest
But what are some of
these people doing?
See the poster by
Ana Albernaz…